My favorite league that I participate in is the Matt Waldman/Rookie Scout Portfolio Experts league. Matt was an early adopter of Reality Sports Online, and was kind enough to start this Experts league two years ago when we were just getting off the ground. If you don’t know who Matt is or what the Rookie Scouting Portfolio is, take a quick tour of the site. If you love the NFL, whether you’re a Fantasy person or not, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio is worth the $20. When it comes to Fantasy, I recommend a lot of sites (there are a lot of good ones!), but when it comes to scouting and player evaluation, there are very few I would recommend. I’ve read dozens of player evaluations done by NFL Scouts, and Matt’s stuff is NFL-team caliber. I don’t follow college football as closely as I used to, and Matt’s comprehensive guide actually helps prepare me for the NFL Draft so that I’m as interested in rounds 3-7 as I am rounds 1 and 2.
The league has great Fantasy experts from many different sites:
I took over an immediate rebuilding project after both the Rookie Draft & the first year Free Agency Auction were complete. An Owner had to leave the Free Agency Auction at the midway point because of extenuating circumstances, so I ended up with a half-way assembled team. I made a flurry of pre-season moves and trades (outlined at the time by Matt Waldman here) to try to position myself for the future. Year one was rough, mostly because I ended up overachieving at 5-8, and ended up with the 5th pick in the 2014 Rookie Draft.
Entering the second year of the league, I was mostly a blank slate, returning Alex Smith (traded for) and a couple of above average Wide Receivers with Antonio Brown (traded for), Michael Crabtree (inherited), and Percy Harvin (traded for). I also had Christine Michael (inherited) and Kyle Rudolph (inherited), who at the time, still held some promise.
I had traded my 2nd round pick away, and entered the Rookie Draft planning to draft a Running Back who would get touches. I desperately wanted to select Carlos Hyde fifth overall, and was certain he was still going to be available. Mike MacGregor held two of the first four selections in front of me in the first round, and he already had a ton of depth at RB. Mike Evans went off the board first, Sammy Watkins second, Brandin Cooks third, and of course, MacGregor selected Carlos Hyde with the 4th pick. In retrospect, at #5, I could have adapted on the fly and selected a WR (Kelvin Benjamin, OBJ, or Jordan Matthews), or took a shot on Jeremy Hill (who was projecting to be in a time-share at best), but I didn’t have my crystal ball with me that day, and I took Bishop Sankey. Even with Sankey and no 2nd round selection, I was still able to salvage the draft (in my opinion) landing Lorenzo Taliaferro in the 3rd, De’Anthony Thomas and Dri Archer in the 4th, and Colt Lyerla and Jimmy Garoppolo in the 5th. Entering their sophomore seasons, I’m more excited about Taliaffero, Thomas, and Archer than Sankey.
In the second-season Free Agency Auction (first with me at the helm), I handed multi-year contracts to Nick Foles (4 yrs/$25M), Vernon Davis (2 yrs/$16.5M), Bryce Brown (3 yrs/$10.5M), Anquan Boldin (2 yrs/$9M), Knowshon Moreno (2 yrs/$8.5M), and Miles Austin (3 yrs/$5.5M). I had a handful of notable 1-year deals (LeGarrette Blount, Frank Gore, Carson Palmer) but ended up underachieving with that group, going 4-9.
Now entering year 3 of the league, I have the 2nd pick in the draft, with picks in rounds 1,2, 3, and 5. If I don’t make any trades or cuts, I’ll have about $70M in 2015 Cap Room entering the Free Agency Auction, plus the players below already on my roster. If I believed either player would be worth it, I could Franchise Tag Frank Gore or LeGarrette Blount for the friendly price of $23.7M. Christine Michael is the only player remaining from the roster I inherited two years ago.
PLAYER |
POS |
AGE |
TM |
EXP |
Total |
Guar |
Yrs |
2015 |
2016 |
2017
|
Archer, Dri |
RB |
24 |
PIT |
2016 |
$1.95M |
$974.17K |
3 |
$649.44K |
$688.41K |
UFA |
Austin, Miles |
WR |
31 |
CLE |
2016 |
$5.5M |
$2.75M |
3 |
$1.83M |
$1.94M |
UFA |
Boldin, Anquan |
WR |
35 |
SF |
2015 |
$9M |
$4.5M |
2 |
$4.59M |
UFA |
|
Brown, Antonio |
WR |
27 |
PIT |
2015 |
$18.5M |
$12.15M |
3 |
$6.54M |
UFA |
|
Brown, Bryce |
RB |
24 |
BUF |
2016 |
$10.5M |
$5.25M |
3 |
$3.5M |
$3.71M |
UFA |
Davis, Vernon |
TE |
31 |
SF |
2015 |
$16.5M |
$8.25M |
2 |
$8.42M |
UFA |
|
Foles, Nick |
QB |
26 |
STL |
2017 |
$25M |
$12.5M |
4 |
$6M |
$6.5M |
$7M |
Garoppolo, Jimmy |
QB |
24 |
NE |
2016 |
$1.8M |
$899.88K |
3 |
$599.92K |
$635.92K |
UFA |
Harvin, Percy |
WR |
27 |
NYJ |
2015 |
$40.5M |
$26.6M |
3 |
$14.31M |
UFA |
|
Michael, Christine |
RB |
25 |
SEA |
2015 |
$10.2M |
$6.7M |
3 |
$3.6M |
UFA |
|
Moreno, Knowshon |
RB |
28 |
MIA |
2015 |
$8.5M |
$4.25M |
2 |
$4.34M |
UFA |
|
Sankey, Bishop |
RB |
23 |
TEN |
2016 |
$14.43M |
$7.22M |
3 |
$4.81M |
$5.1M |
UFA |
Taliaferro, Lorenzo |
RB |
24 |
BAL |
2016 |
$2.46M |
$1.23M |
3 |
$820.65K |
$869.89K |
UFA |
Thomas, De’Anthony |
RB |
22 |
KC |
2016 |
$1.94M |
$967.8K |
3 |
$645.2K |
$683.91K |
UFA |
At this moment, the only player I would consider cutting in advance of the season would be Miles Austin. I’d essentially be able to get out from his 2016 salary by releasing him prior to the season (half of his 2015 $1.83M and half of his 2016 $1.94M would accelerate into 2015). I’ll wait and see where he lands, because even if he’s on my roster Week 1, fully guaranteeing his salary for the year, he’s not a big cap hit.
Even though Austin may be the only player I cut, this is not exactly the roster I envisioned I would have after 2 years of rebuilding. While I can certainly put the $70M to good use, there are four teams with even more space than I have. Outside of Antonio Brown, this team has a lot of mediocrity. Percy Harvin and Nick Foles both have some legitimate upside in their new environments, and Dri Archer, Bryce Brown, Christine Michael, Lorenzo Taliaferro, and De’Athony Thomas are all a teammate injury away from Fantasy prominence. At the risk of one of the other franchise Owners reading this and using it against me during trade talks, I can’t say I’m very excited about Vernon Davis or Bishop Sankey, but maybe they’ll surprise me.
I’m guaranteed to land either Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon with the #2 pick, if I so choose. I will probably do so, or I can trade back. Alternatively, if they end up in a non-Fantasy friendly backfield, I’ll have Amari Cooper as a backup plan. I should be able to land either Winston or Mariota at the top of round 2, but will do so knowing I can’t expect any real production in year one.
There are 157 veteran offensive skill positions players whose contracts expired at the conclusion of the 2014 season. Here’s a look at the top 50 Free Agents (sorted by 2014 Salary). Marshawn Lynch (~$24.8M), Peyton Manning (~$19.8M), and DeMarco Murray (~$23.7M) look like the only players likely to receive Franchise Tags. Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, or Sam Bradford are all sleeper QB tag (~$19.8M) candidates. Teams will have between 18 and 24 players already under contract heading into Free Agency, so everyone will be looking to fill 6 to 12 roster spots. There are a handful of potential gems that are not on this top 50 list, but for the most part…this is it. Some of these guys are going to get a lot more than they’re worth – just like what happens in real life.
PLAYER
|
POS |
AGE |
TM |
RSO TEAM |
2014 Salary
|
Peterson, Adrian |
RB |
30 |
MIN |
Jason Wood |
$36.21 |
Johnson, Calvin |
WR |
30 |
DET |
Matt Waldman |
$35.45 |
Charles, Jamaal |
RB |
29 |
KC |
Bob Harris |
$30.86 |
Rice, Ray |
RB |
28 |
BAL |
Jeff Tefertiller |
$27.80 |
Foster, Arian |
RB |
29 |
HOU |
Matt Waldman |
$26.01 |
White, Roddy |
WR |
34 |
ATL |
Mike Clay |
$21.50 |
Kaepernick, Colin |
QB |
28 |
SF |
Evan Silva |
$20.91 |
Lynch, Marshawn |
RB |
29 |
SEA |
Russell Clay |
$20.66 |
Cruz, Victor |
WR |
29 |
NYG |
Mike Clay |
$17.60 |
Johnson, Andre |
WR |
34 |
IND |
Rivers McCown |
$16.58 |
Fitzgerald, Larry |
WR |
32 |
ARI |
Matt Deutsch |
$16.07 |
Manning, Peyton |
QB |
39 |
DEN |
Jim Day |
$16.07 |
Brees, Drew |
QB |
36 |
NO |
Mike Clay |
$15.30 |
Murray, DeMarco |
RB |
27 |
PHI |
Matt Deutsch |
$15.30 |
Jackson, Vincent |
WR |
32 |
TB |
Mike MacGregor |
$15.05 |
Crabtree, Michael |
WR |
28 |
SF |
Matt Papson |
$14.03 |
Smith, Torrey |
WR |
26 |
SF |
Ryan McDowell |
$14.03 |
Miller, Lamar |
RB |
24 |
MIA |
Mike MacGregor |
$12.75 |
Bowe, Dwayne |
WR |
31 |
KC |
Matt Deutsch |
$12.50 |
Jennings, Rashad |
RB |
30 |
NYG |
Bob Harris |
$12.50 |
Wayne, Reggie |
WR |
37 |
IND |
Jim Day |
$12 |
Johnson, Chris |
RB |
30 |
NYJ |
Jim Day |
$11.50 |
Gore, Frank |
RB |
32 |
IND |
Matt Papson |
$11 |
Jennings, Greg |
WR |
32 |
MIN |
Mike Clay |
$11 |
Garcon, Pierre |
WR |
29 |
WAS |
Jeff Tefertiller |
$10.71 |
Welker, Wes |
WR |
34 |
DEN |
Russell Clay |
$10.71 |
Wallace, Mike |
WR |
29 |
MIA |
Mike Clay |
$10.50 |
Bush, Reggie |
RB |
30 |
DET |
Jason Wood |
$9.44 |
Jackson, Steven |
RB |
32 |
ATL |
Sigmund Bloom |
$8 |
Jackson, Fred |
RB |
34 |
BUF |
Russell Clay |
$7.50 |
Wright, Kendall |
WR |
26 |
TEN |
Jim Day |
$7.14 |
Ridley, Stevan |
RB |
26 |
NE |
Ryan McDowell |
$6.63 |
Baldwin, Doug |
WR |
27 |
SEA |
Jason Wood |
$6 |
Palmer, Carson |
QB |
36 |
ARI |
Matt Papson |
$6 |
Bradford, Sam |
QB |
28 |
PHI |
Sigmund Bloom |
$5.87 |
Holmes, Andre |
WR |
27 |
OAK |
Mike Clay |
$5.50 |
Smith Sr., Steve |
WR |
36 |
BAL |
Bob Harris |
$5.50 |
Johnson, Stevie |
WR |
29 |
SF |
Bob Harris |
$5.10 |
Jones-Drew, Maurice |
RB |
30 |
OAK |
Matt Deutsch |
$5 |
Manning, Eli |
QB |
34 |
NYG |
Evan Silva |
$5 |
Rudolph, Kyle |
TE |
26 |
MIN |
Matt Papson |
$4.59 |
Tannehill, Ryan |
QB |
27 |
MIA |
Ryan McDowell |
$4.59 |
Dalton, Andy |
QB |
28 |
CIN |
Bob Harris |
$4.50 |
Roethlisberger, Ben |
QB |
33 |
PIT |
Sigmund Bloom |
$4.34 |
Stewart, Jonathan |
RB |
28 |
CAR |
Sigmund Bloom |
$4.34 |
McFadden, Darren |
RB |
28 |
OAK |
Matt Deutsch |
$4 |
Amendola, Danny |
WR |
30 |
NE |
Rivers McCown |
$3.50 |
Blount, LeGarrette |
RB |
29 |
NE |
Matt Papson |
$3.50 |
Rivers, Philip |
QB |
34 |
SD |
Jason Wood |
$3.06 |
Perhaps I was scarred by my real life experiences, but I’m not one to hand-out mega-contracts. As you can see, the multi-year contracts I handed out last year were relatively low dollar amounts. That means I’m not going to be competing (unless I’m helping enforce fair value) for AP, Calvin Johnson, Jamaal Charles, or Arian Foster.
Admittedly, at the moment, it’s hard to see an easy path to being a contender. I have two of the most valuable pieces in the league right: Antonio Brown at only $6.54M, and the 2nd overall pick – which comes with an affordable contract. Sometime here in the near future, I’m going to have to decide if it’s better to sell those pieces and make a run in 2016, or hope guys like Nick Foles, Percy Harvin, Lorenzo Taliaferro, and some Free Agent signings have big years.
What do you guys think? Does this roster have championship hope in it? Let me know on Twitter @RealitySportsMP
Look for more coverage of this league on the Reality Sports Online Football Ops page as well as on Matt Waldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio.