I wrote the first draft of last year’s rookie mock draft on August 23, 2017 and by the time June 2018 rolled around, five of my first ten picks were still first rounders (according to ADP data compiled by DLF). I’m happy with that but overall my mock draft was a mixed bag. There were some good calls: like Royce Freeman at 1.07 and Sam Darnold as the first QB off the board. There were some duds too: Bo Scarborough at 1.06 and third round flyers on Corey Willis and Jordan Chunn. The exercise of mock drafting this early is helpful because it forces me to start ranking by position. It also requires me to evaluate each position group to see how their strength compares to each other.
Remember, it’s early. Very early. Players will overperform, underperform, go on hot streaks, go through slumps, get hurt, get suspended, get arrested or maybe not even declare early. What I’m trying to say is use this as a tool to start your rookie research but don’t bank on it come May. When creating this mock draft, I used two base assumptions: 1) a standard 1 QB roster setup and 2) any redshirt sophomore or junior good enough to be considered will declare early. If you’re playing superflex, I typically suggest to move quarterbacks up a half round or so. For more information on these players, check out my The Watch List series which feature deeper dives on stats and film study. Share your thoughts with me on Twitter @robertfcowper.
1.01 – N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State
Harry broke out as a true freshman and has been on the devy radar since then. He’s big at 6040/213 and uses his size to win in contested situations. I questioned his run after catch ability when I studied him this preseason and he promptly proved me wrong. He put up 82-1,142-8 last season and if he repeats that line in 2018 he’ll be the first receiver off the board next spring.
1.02 – Kelvin Harmon, WR, NC State
I’m higher on Harmon than other rankers who have him behind Edwards and Brown. I think he’s shorter than his 6030 listed height but it does not stop him from winning in the air. He’s an excellent route runner who I compared to Stefon Diggs. His stats won’t jump off the screen but his film does.
1.03 – Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina
Edwards has a flair for circus catches that showcase his ball tracking, concentration and body control. Like Harmon, his stats will look underwhelming (64-793-5 last season) but you need to watch him play in order to appreciate his ability. There was limited film available in the preseason but from what I saw I was very impressed.
1.04 – AJ Brown, WR, Ole Miss
Like last year, Brown is off to a strong start against weaker competition (15-251-3 in two games). He’s a bear to tackle after the catch who possesses enough power and skill moves to keep defenders guessing. He lines up predominantly out of the slot so I’d love to see him lined up elsewhere to get a feel for how he does against the press and along the sideline. Brown will need to show scouts that he’s versatile and can put up big games more consistently against stronger opponents.
1.05 – David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State
To start the season, I was between Montgomery and Anderson for my RB1 spot. After Anderson’s injury it’s a much easier decision. Montgomery has the ability to make spectacular plays by virtue of his tackle breaking skills. He’s also a good receiver who had 36 receptions and 296 yards last year. The knock against Montgomery is that too many of his carries go for a loss or short gain. Whether that’s due to poor vision or poor line play will require more film study. I foresee Montgomery going earlier in fantasy draft based on team need but in a vacuum, I’ll start with the receivers.
1.06 – DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
Whereas I question Brown’s ability to be an outside receiver in the pros, I have less doubt that Metcalf can. He’s huge at 6040/225. He’s a former high school track star who reportedly ran a 4.46 last year. If that’s true come combine, Metcalf will be a first rounder. As his body of work grows, his draft stock will as well.
1.07 – Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma
This was a really tough choice for me. Anderson was in contention for my RB1 spot before his season-ending knee injury. This will be the second season that Anderson loses to injury and he also has some off-field questions. It’s very likely that his NFL Draft prospects will reflect those question marks but if he is healthy in camp he has the ability to win the job. If I’m forecasting now, I’ll predict that his talent wins out.
1.08 – Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
Love finished 2nd in Heisman voting last year after a spectacular 2,118-19 season. He battled injuries throughout 2017 and is banged up again in 2018 (he’s going to miss Week 3 against UC Davis with a knee). The injuries and his lack of pass catching are two big knocks against Love. He’s reportedly put on some weight which is vital because he’s going to need to find a niche in the NFL, that may have to be as a two-down back if he can’t cut it as a receiver. I think Love will need to be part of a committee so his fantasy value will rely largely on which committee that turns out to be.
1.09 – Devin Singletary, RB, Florida Atlantic
Devin “Motor” Singletary is an electrifying runner who rushed for 1,912 yards and 32 TDs last season. Yes, you read that correct: thirty two. He feasted on lesser opponents, collecting seven games with 3+ touchdowns. In five games against Power 5 opponents, Singletary has just 188 yards and 2 TDs. That’s a bit of a red flag for me because you really want your Group of 5 back to prove it against the stronger opposition (a la Rashaad Penny and Kareem Hunt, both of which had multiple 100+ games against Power 5 teams). Unfortunately, we won’t see Singletary against a Power 5 team again this season so his draft stock will include a bit of projection.
1.10 – Tyre Brady, WR, Marshall
I fell in love with Brady when I watched him this preseason while writing my C-USA preview. In that preview I praised Brady, specifically saying that I thought he had the potential to be a starting X receiver in the NFL. He has 4.40 speed, strong hands, toe-tapping body control and solid route running skills. He’s a former Miami transfer so you know he had high expectations out of high school. Brady is off to a strong start through two games (15-182-3) and I predict he will be a riser on draft boards so I’m calling my shot.
2.01 – Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
I constantly espouse the “QB at 2.01” strategy for RSO owners. Locking in a young passer with starting potential for four years and less than $2 million is fantastic value. The 2019 quarterback class currently looks weaker than the 2018 class but that doesn’t change my strategy. Herbert is my QB1 right now because he has the size and athleticism that will excite pro scouts. His arm strength is average it seems but he’s accurate enough to compensate. He can be careless with the ball but hopefully that improves with experience.
2.02 – Anthony Johnson, WR, Buffalo
I originally had Johnson below Samuel but as I looked at my list I just couldn’t justify it. Johnson is a dominant receiver who joined Buffalo in 2017 as a JUCO transfer. He immediately set the MAC ablaze, leading the league in receiving yards and TDs. He plays larger than his 6020/210 size suggests and will be another riser at WR this year.
2.03 – Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina
Samuel is undeniably talented but he’s been plagued by injuries throughout his career. In his first three seasons, he played in just 18 games. He recorded 87 receptions, 969 yards and 5 TDs in those contests. He’ll need to get through all of 2018 in one piece in order to figure as a fantasy asset next year.
2.04 – Myles Gaskin, RB, Washington
Gaskin is about as consistent as it comes. He rushed for 1,300+ yards and double digit touchdowns each of his three seasons. Gaskins also had 19 receptions in both 2016 and 2017. It may take time for his NFL fans to warm to him but he will find a valuable role in the NFL and has the tools to be an every down back.
2.05 – Benny Snell, RB, Kentucky
Snell has grown on me the more I have watched and studied him. He has great size at 5110/223 and runs with the power you’d expect. I have limited exposure to Snell but from what I have seen he appears to have patience and vision at the line and enough speed for the next level. It’s a toss-up for me with him and the two backs below because he’s youngest of the trio.
2.06 – Damien Harris, RB, Alabama
I had Harris pegged for the 2018 draft but he decided to return for his senior season. Ultimately, I think that will decrease his draft value rather than increase it. The Tide have so many name-brand backs on their roster that it’s hard for any of them to get a large enough share (for example, through three games he has 24 carries this season). He’s a former top recruit who has two 1,000+ yards rushing in the toughest division in college football. I don’t doubt his pedigree or his ability but, like with Gaskin, he’s not a sexy prospect right now.
2.07 – Justice Hill, RB, Oklahoma State
I put Hill at the back of this run on RBs because I feel his NFL role may be the most limited. He’s a great receiver (31 receptions last year; strangely just 2 so far in 2018) and a bit light at 190. I’d like to see him add a few pounds and put out plenty of up-the-middle tape to feel better about his chances to be a three down back.
2.08 – JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Stanford
I just recently covered J-JAW so check out my more in depth study for details. He’s a big-bodied receiver who literally boxes out DBs. If draft stock was something you could literally invest in, I would be buying Arcega-Whiteside.
2.09 – Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
Fant is my first TE off the board. I have him significantly lower than I did the tight ends of the last two classes because I feel there is more unknown with this group. Both he and Albert Okwuegbunam are no guarantee to come out and the typical thinking goes that TEs need time to develop (I’d love to see the breakdown of tight ends who declare early versus those who stay). He had 30 receptions, 494 yards and 11 TDs in 2017 as a sophomore. He already has 12-140-2 in 2018 so he’s on pace to beat last year’s marks.
2.10 – Miles Sanders, RB, Penn State
Sanders is a former 5-star recruit who sat behind the legendary Saquon Barkley for two seasons. He’s off to a good start so far now that he’s the man (295 yards, 6.0 yards per carry). Since we have such a small sample size, his value is bound to fluctuate.
3.01 – Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
If Jones didn’t get hurt in Week 2 he might have showed up higher on this list. The 2019 quarterback class doesn’t stack up to the 2018 class which left the door open for an outsider like Jones to contend for a first round NFL Draft selection. Jones is a dual-threat passer who throws well on the run and isn’t afraid of contact. He needs to improve his touch and accuracy but his physical tools are there. I hope that Jones can return this year and prove he deserves a look. Similarly to the 2.01 spot, I like to go QB at 3.01 to maximize value.
3.02 – David Sills, WR, West Virginia
Sills was a favorite of mine all of last season while he was leading the FBS in receiving touchdowns (18). He has good size at 6040/210 and excels in the red zone (12 of his 18 TDs came inside the twenty). Sills is a former quarterback who was recruited in middle school by Lane Kiffin. So, not only does he have the talent but he has an interesting back story.
3.03 – Alexander Mattison, RB, Boise State
Mattison looks like an NFL running back to me when I see him in highlights. Thankfully, the stats back it up. In 2017 he totaled 1,086 yards and 12 TDs rushing and added 28 receptions, 284 yards and a score. I’m sure that the film study will as well. If he continues to put up big numbers in 2018, he’ll jump some of the Power 5 backs listed above.
3.04 – Collin Johnson, WR, Texas
I kept moving Johnson down my rankings because the best argument I could make for him is his size (6060/220). I still don’t feel great about him at 3.04 but I guess as the cliche goes, you can’t teach size. He has played for an anemic Longhorn offense so his numbers aren’t great. His 54-765 line from last year is encouraging until you see that he scored just 2 TDs. Somebody with size like that should be able to score in close (see: Sills, David). I don’t watch Texas close enough to know how much of that is on Johnson and how much is on the offense as a whole so he’ll require some further study.
3.05 – Jarrett Stidham, QB, Auburn
I have compared Stidham to Alex Smith on multiple occasions. While that may be damning with faint praise, I think it’s a compliment. Smith has carved out a nice NFL career as an athletic game-manager. Stidham’s numbers are down so far this year though so let’s revisit him after he hits the meat of his SEC West schedule.
3.06 – Jaylen Smith, WR, Louisville
Smith is a deep threat who took full advantage of Lamar Jackson’s arm in 2016 and 2017. He averaged over 18 yards per catch on 87 receptions in those seasons. This season though has been different. The Cardinals offense has struggled and the new quarterback, the aptly named Jawon Pass, has already been benched. Smith went “oh-fer” in the games against Alabama and Kentucky, not good. I have him ranked here because we have seen his big play ability in action but I have a feeling by season’s end he’ll be lower on my list.
3.07 – Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State
Butler is big (6060/225) and apparently very difficult to tackle, as we learned against Oklahoma. Butler vaulted himself into my third round with that performance. Now that Allen Lazard has moved on, I expect Butler to rack up the touchdowns this year as Iowa State gets deeper into their Big 12 schedule.
3.08 – Jalin Moore, RB, Appalachian State
I’m a bit partial to Moore because he agreed to do a Q&A with me this offseason. Besides that though, I think he has an NFL future because of his skills as a pass blocker. According to Pro Football Focus, he was the top rated back in pass blocking efficiency last season. He has two back-to-back 1,000 yard rushing seasons with 10+ touchdowns in each. I’d like to see him eclipse last year’s 12 receptions to fully prove his worth on third down.
3.09 – Mike Weber, RB, Ohio State
I’m not sure what to make of Weber as an NFL prospect. I’m sure he’ll be drafted and hang around because of his all-round talent but if Ohio State doesn’t trust him to be their feature back, will an NFL team?
3.10 – Albert Okwuegbunam, TE, Missouri
His name is Big Al and he hits dingers. Okwuegbunam is a redshirt sophomore so who knows if he declares early or returns to school for another year (or two) of seasoning. He has started strong with 14-100-2 this season after 29-415-11 last season. At 6050/260 he has enough size to be a red zone threat and an inline blocker. Whether or not he can prove his meddle as a blocker in the SEC will be important to monitor.
Honorable Mentions
- 4.01 – Darrell Henderson, RB, Memphis
- 4.02 – Ahmmon Richards, WR, Miami
- 4.03 – Kaden Smith, TE, Stanford
- 4.04 – Felton Davis, WR, Michigan State
- 4.05 – TJ Vasher, WR, Texas Tech
- 4.06 – Caleb Wilson, TE, UCLA
- 4.07 – Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
- 4.08 – LJ Scott, RB, Michigan State
- 4.09 – Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
- 4.10 – Zack Moss, RB, Utah
Note: I wrote this article between September 14-18 so any big games or injuries after that point are not taken into account.
Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor. My experimental grading system uses a Madden-like approach by weighting position relevant traits on a 100-point scale; bonus or negative points are awarded based on production, size, injury history and character. Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths. So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113. This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games. When time permits, I may add a third game. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…
- Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com, mcubed.net
- Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
- Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
- Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
- Draft history: drafthistory.com
- Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
- Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
- Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft
- Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com, the media home for FWAA members
Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.
