2018 RSO Rookie Mock Draft v1.0

Updated: September 6th 2017

Here it is, version 1.0 of my RSO rookie mock draft for 2018.  Remember, it’s early.  Very early.  Players will be overperform, underperform, go on hot streaks, go through slumps, get hurt, get suspended, get arrested or maybe not even declare early.  What I’m trying to say is use this as a tool to start your rookie research but don’t bank on it come May.  When creating this mock draft, I used two base assumptions: 1) a standard 1 QB roster setup and 2) any junior good enough to be considered will declare early.  For more information on most of these players, check out my Watch List previews which feature deeper dives on stats and film study.  Share your thoughts with me on Twitter @robertfcowper. Note: I wrote this article in August before the season began so any big games or injuries from the beginning of the season are not taken into account.  Updated versions will be posted throughout the season.

1.01, Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
1.02, Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

Preseason hype has these two locked into the first two slots. I would expect them to jockey with each other throughout the season as they have good and bad games. I believe Barkley will end up the consensus 1.01 due to his larger workload and his pass catching ability.

1.03, Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia

If it weren’t for Chubb’s serious knee injury last year he would have been in the 1.01 mix. I might be higher on him than some but I feel putting him at 1.03 already takes the injuries into consideration, no need to knock him down further.  Not a bad consolation prize if you miss out on Barkley or Guice.

1.04, Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
1.05, Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M

Having Ridley as the WR1 is not the norm per my research. Ridley was more highly sought as a high school recruit than Kirk and hasn’t done anything to dissuade my opinion yet. Kirk is electric and might have a higher ceiling (I compared him to Odell Beckham Jr. in my SEC preview), but a lower floor, so it comes down to your risk tolerance.

1.06, Bo Scarborough, RB, Alabama
1.07, Royce Freeman, RB Oregon

Like Chubb, Scarborough’s injury history drops him down my mock draft. He also had an academic related suspension to start his freshman season. If he can stay healthy, you would be getting a massive value here.  Freeman screams NFL running back to me when I look at his stats and his highlights. He may end up being a day three real life pick but I have a feeling he will be fantasy relevant very early in his career.

1.07, Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
1.08, James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State
1.10, Deon Cain, WR, Clemson

Sutton and Washington are a clear tier break at the position for me after Ridley and Kirk. They both have negatives that concern me. Sutton racked up his 2016 stats against very weak defenses; Washington looks smaller to me than his 6’0″ and 205lb listing suggests. There are some bright spots though. Sutton has NFL size and the ability to make spectacular high-point or toe-tap catches; Washington has breakaway speed that I likened to Desean Jackson.  Cain really impressed me when I researched him. He contributed as an underclassmen on very successful Clemson teams that were full of NFL talent. Now that he’s the BMOC Cain should impress everybody else.  I have Sutton ranked highest of the three because he has the best chance to move up my rankings.

2.01, Sam Darnold, QB, USC

I really wanted to put Darnold at 1.10 but I didn’t have the guts to do it yet. For our purposes here, I am using a standard 1 QB format so Darnold isn’t quite that valuable. In a superflex? He’ll move up to the 1.06 range. I continue to believe that the value of second round quarterbacks in the RSO format is too good to pass up (pun intended).

2.02, Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis
2.03, Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame
2.04, Dante Pettis, WR, Washington

Despite the pedigree of St. Brown and Pettis, I put Miller ahead of them. Maybe it’s a foolish decision, but even though they have had good production, I have questions about the size of St. Brown and Pettis.  St. Brown is long and lean; of the seven WR who measured 6’4″ and 205lb or less at the combine since 2010, all were busts.  The list of successful NFL wide receivers who weigh less than 190lbs, like Pettis, is short. Miller isn’t really any bigger but he just popped when I watched him – maybe because he was playing against lesser defenders. He did have one insane OBJ-esque touchdown catch that itself made me want to bump him even higher.  All three of these guys could gain ground in my mock drafts if they gain some weight.

2.05, L.J. Scott, RB, Michigan State
2.06, Sony Michel, RB, Georgia
2.07, Ronald Jones, RB, USC

I’m lower on Jones than some of the devy sites I read. I just was not a fan after doing some early research. He’s too tall for his weight and he only has one career 20+ carry game. Scott does not have the weight concern – he’s a bruiser at 230lbs – but it was disappointing that his TD production slipped in 2016, albeit on a bad Spartans team. I’m expecting the team, and his stats, to improve in 2017. Michel has shared the Georgia backfield with more highly touted backs in Todd Gurley and Nick Chubb. He likely won’t rise to their fantasy draft pick heights, but he should be a decent NFL pick. I put Michel above Jones because of the dominant way Michel closed out 2015 after Chubb got hurt.

2.08, Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
2.09, Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

The two Joshes will battle for the QB2 spot behind Sam Darnold. I have Rosen ahead right now because I think he’s more NFL ready but I expect Allen to put up huge numbers against the MWC’s weaker opposition. Even more so than with Darnold at 2.01, the value here for either quarterback is too good to pass up.

2.10, Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma
3.01, Allen Lazard, WR, Iowa State

I’m confident that these two tall Big 12 pass catchers will be solid pros but they aren’t very sexy hence the later picks. Andrews is 6’5″ and 250lbs and has 14 career receiving TDs on 50 receptions.  He is more of a “move tight end” and often lines up off the line of scrimmage in the Sooners’ spread offense; he isn’t the best TE in the class but will probably be drafted highest for fantasy purposes.  Lazard, a senior, is the same height as Andrews but weighs in at about 225lbs. He has been the best player on a struggling Iowa State team since he was a true freshman.

3.02, Myles Gaskin, RB, Washington
3.03, Damien Harris, RB, Alabama
3.04, Kalen Ballage, RB, Arizona State

These three Power Five running backs find themselves in the third round instead of the second because each has some negatives. I changed the order a number of times but settled on Gaskins first. Neither Harris nor Ballage have been “the guy” for their offenses and both have some minor injury concerns. Meanwhile, Gaskin has almost as many career carries as the other two combined but I think he will measure in smaller than advertised.

3.05, Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina
3.05, Troy Fumagalli, TE, Wisconsin

It’s unlikely that we see Top 12 prospects in 2018 like we did in 2017 but I’ll bet we get 3 or 4 of them taken in standard RSO drafts with owners who missed out on the 2017 class and hoping for a repeat in 2018.   Hurst was near the top in receptions and touchdowns by TEs last year with a true freshman quarterback so he will see improved production.  I watched his film against South Florida from last year and I’d say he’s a B to a B+ blocker, with good hands (evidenced by a nice one-handed touchdown catch) and good speed.  If it weren’t for Fumagalli’s injury history (it’s extensive) he’d be higher on this list.  He’s a better blocker than Hurst, probably the best blocking TE I have seen when watching film the last two seasons, and should see the NFL field quickly.

3.07, Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State
3.08, Corey Willis, WR, Central Michigan
3.09, Jordan Chunn, RB, Troy

I’m calling my shots with these three small-school players. If they don’t put up stellar numbers they won’t make it this high in your fantasy drafts but I think each has a chance to rocket up expert rankings to find their way on your radar. Gallup is a high volume JUCO transfer who caught 14 TDs in his first NCAA season. Willis is a speedster with good hands who broke out for 72 receptions as a junior and caught my eye while writing my MAC preview. Chunn is the Sun Belt’s best hope at a fantasy relevant rookie in my opinion. In 2016, he rebounded from a 2015 medical redshirt to gain 1,288 yards and 16 TDs; he’s big at 6’1″ 230lbs and caught 30 balls last year.

3.10, Antonio Callaway, WR, Florida

I probably should have Callaway ranked higher but I was torn on whether to include him at all.  I’d rather move him up later if he shows me more than go against my gut now.  I put him here to acknowledge that he’s probably a Top 30 devy talent but I think he’s being rated too highly.

Honorable Mention, Adam Breneman, TE, UMass

Breneman is a small-school favorite of mine who had a 70-808-8 line last year.  I originally had him in the mix at 3.05 and 3.06 with Fumagalli and Hurst but ultimately I couldn’t justify having three TEs at that spot.  At this point in the process, I believe that Fumagalli and Hurst are more  NFL-ready so I gave them the nod over Breneman.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

The Watch List: Mountain West

Updated: July 23rd 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players, storylines and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention.  Check back throughout the Summer for previews on each conference and my preseason Heisman predictions.  During the regular season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. 

Players to Watch

  • Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming: Depending on where you look, junior Josh Allen is one of the top quarterback prospects for 2018 along with USC’s Sam Darnold and UCLA’s Josh Rosen.  I had heard and read some of the Allen hype, so going into my MWC preview, I knew he would be featured.  I honestly came away a bit disappointed but with a lot of notes.  I decided to watch tape of Allen against Nebraska, figuring that was the most NFL-like defense he would have faced.  Nebraska predictably dominated at the line of scrimmage and Allen was under pressure all game long.  Allen finished with a horrible stat line: 16-32, 189 yards, 1 TD, 5 INTs (he also had a backward pass that was recovered as a fumble and was not charged to him).  He was erratic and inaccurate for most of the game including three bad under throws which led to interceptions.  The inaccuracy is borne out in his season totals too: a poor 56% completion percentage and 15 INTs.  There were also at least two times when Allen was about to be sacked and he just flung the ball trying to avoid the loss; one resulted in an intentional grounding and another harmlessly hit the turf but could have been another turnover.  If he doesn’t have pocket presence against Nebraska, will he have it against the Houston Texans?  It wasn’t all negative though, there were some good takeaways.  First off, Allen is big and statuesque at 6’5″ and 222lb.  When he takes a shotgun snap and quickly gets the ball out without a drop step, he looks like an NFL quarterback.  He didn’t show it against Nebraska, but Allen is a threat on the ground too (523 yards, 7 TDs).  I don’t think it’ll be enough to consider him a mobile quarterback in the NFL but he could have the same 300 yard, 3 TD rushing upside as Andrew Luck if he puts on a few pounds.  NFL personnel will also like the fact that Wyoming’s offense features a number of plays from under center: against Nebraska, I counted ten snaps from under center.  One play against Nebraska sums up everything Allen can do right…  It was a 4th and 12 from 35 yards out with just a few seconds to go in the half.  Not trusting the kicker, Allen and the offense stayed on the field.  He rolls right to buy time for his receivers, starts directing traffic in front of him and hurls a high arching pass to the back corner where nobody but his receiver could get to it – near perfection.  If Allen can show scouts, and RSO owners, plays similar to that throughout 2017 he will stay at the top of draft boards.  Luckily, two early season games against Iowa and Oregon will give us some good tape to digest.  At this point, I expect Allen to go in the Top 5 in the NFL draft and depending on your RSO format, anywhere from mid- or late 1st (Superflex) to mid-2nd (standard).
  • Brett Rypien, QB, Boise State: Rypien, another junior QB, is Phil Steele’s 15th ranked draft eligible quarterback for 2018.  Another resource I use, Lindy’s, has him at 17th but says they don’t think he will come out early.  I did some further online research and couldn’t come up with anything more definitive either way.  For now, keep Rypien on your radar but don’t waste a devy pick on him.  He won’t be the best at his position in the MWC but he could garner enough draft hype to force him to come out.  He’s significantly smaller than Allen (6’2″, 200 lb) which caught my eye because media guides often lie and that even 200 sure looks like it was rounded up.  I looked back and there are not many QBs in recent years who weigh as little as 200 lb.  The lightest two from 2017 were Brad Kaaya (214) and Seth Russell (213) but at least they were an inch or two taller.  Rypien is not a scrambler, but still, NFL scouts will be concerned about his ability to stay healthy throughout a season.  His stats over two years as the starter are good: nearly 7,000 yards, 44 TDs, 16 INTs and a 62.8% completion percentage.  Ultimately, I think Rypien’s stock will be buoyed by the name cachet of Boise State and some gaudy numbers, like the 5 TD game against New Mexico last year, but once he hits the combine, his stock will fall.
  • Cedric Wilson, WR, Boise State: Rypien will need somebody to throw to and more often than not, that will be 2016 JUCO transfer Cedric Wilson.  Wilson is tall at 6’3″ but needs to add at least ten pounds to his 183 lb frame (since 2010, no WR measuring 6’3″ weighed less than 194 lb at the combine).  I watched Wilson’s tape against San Jose State and he really impressed me as a blocker: he flew in with reckless abandon, and with effect, multiple times.  I was disappointed in seeing how often he lets the ball get into his body rather than catching it with his hands, hopefully something he can improve on.  In the tape I watched, it seemed that his height was wasted on crossing patterns and bubble screens, routes that don’t seem to match his stature; I’d need to watch more film to see if that was constant throughout the season.  Wilson averaged an impressive 20.2 yards per reception in 2016 so even when he gets the ball near the line of scrimmage he can pick up yards.
  • Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State: Like Wilson, Gallup is a former JUCO transfer so we don’t have much of a sample to work on, although what we do have from 2016 was great: 76 receptions, 1,272 yards and 14 TDs.  He had monstrous games against Air Force (13-213-1) and San Diego State (7-139-3) so we know he can dominate a game.  I’ll be interested to see how he tests at the combine; when watching highlights of him, it seems like he accelerates faster than anybody else on the field once the ball is in his hands.  He had a number of nice contested catches against Fresno State and Air Force so his ability in the air might be better than his 6’1″ height would suggest.  I’m going to keep Gallup’s name filed away and check in late in the season to see if he dominates the MWC like he did in 2016.  If so, he could be a late round steal for a savvy RSO owner.

Storylines to Watch

  • It’s all about the Mountain Division: Forgive me West Division, but I just don’t find you interesting.  The Mountain will feature a three team race to the conference championship between Boise State, Wyoming and Colorado State.  I’ve written enough above and below about Boise and Wyoming, who will go as far as their quarterbacks can carry them, but let me spill a few more words about Colorado State.  They won’t feature the best QB in the league in Nick Stevens but they will likely have the most potent ground game.  Head Coach Mike Bobo likes to spread the carries around, evidenced by having three 500+ yard rushers the last two seasons.  Two of the backs, Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Mathews, were there for both seasons and will provide a good one-two punch.  As I mentioned in my MAC preview when I picked Central Michigan as a potential division spoiler, I like to consult Phil Steele’s experience charts to find teams that could outperform last year.  The Rams return a whopping 88% of their offensive yards from 2016 (15th in the NCAA).  That bodes well for 2017.  The games between Boise, Wyoming and CSU should be fun to watch and will feature a number of NFL prospects.  They should be high scoring too: the teams ranked 52nd, 104th and 69th in total defense respectively.
  • San Diego State’s special teams will steal them a big win: I have otherwise ignored the West Division in this preview but I knew I had to at least mention the team that should win the division: San Diego State.  Strangely, it was their special teams that stood out to me.  RB/KR Rashaad Penny won MW Special Teams Player of the Year the last two seasons (32.4 average with 5 TDs).  Penny will also see an uptick in touches on offense with Donnell Pumphrey gone to the NFL; he had nearly 1,300 yards from scrimmage and 14 combined rushing/receiving TDs in 2016.  Kicker John Baron was an impressive 21-23 with a long of 50 yards.  Reliable college kickers are hard to come by and an explosive return man can be a significant field position advantage in a close game.  My bold prediction is that the combination of Penny and Baron will help the Aztecs steal a non-conference win against either Arizona State or Stanford.

Games to Watch

  • September 1, Colorado vs Colorado State; September 16, Colorado State at Alabama: The Rams have a tough non-conference schedule in 2017 (also including Oregon State).  Colorado and Alabama had the 20th and 24th ranked pass defenses last year, respectively, so they will be a great test for WR Michael Gallup.  Gallup went 10-81-1 combined in his two biggest games last year against Colorado and Minnesota so he needs to prove that he can produce against NFL talent, not just against our future servicemen.
  • October 21, Wyoming at Boise State: It’s all about the two quarterbacks: Rypien vs Allen.  Most of the games these two play this season won’t make it onto the national radar but this one should be with a late eastern time zone start time and not much else scheduled against it.  They’ll both need to make it count as it will be the biggest game they play in the second half of the season until a bowl game and another national broadcast.

Note: When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch.  If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen.  I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability.  If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents.  Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com
  • Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, ESPN’s First Draft podcast, draftek.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper