Post NFL Draft Winners and Losers

By Nick Andrews

Updated: May 2nd 2020

The NFL draft is finally over and the undrafted rookies are looking at each team’s depth chart to see where they have the best chance of making the final 53-man roster. Fantasy owners can also be analyzing each team’s depth charts to see where some of the biggest winners (or losers) can be found. Hopefully, you moved off of some key veterans before they bubble burst on their value.

Winners

Quarterback

Gardner Minshew – Jacksonville Jaguars

Rumors about the Jaguars taking one of the top 3 QBs at 9^th if one was to fall to them was likely just a pipe dream to feed the fan base but there were serious questions about them maybe taking either Jordan Love at the start of the 2^nd round or one of the other two QBs Jacob Eason or Jake Fromm in 3^rd or 4^th round. Love never made it there and the Jaguars passed on the other two, instead grabbing another sixth-round rookie, Jake Luton. There is a real chance that the Jaguars are drafting in the top 10 again next year and will take a quarterback in 2021 but for now, Minshew weathered the first storm and is QB1 on their depth chart.

Jarrett Stidham – New England Patriots

Similar to Minshew, the question seemed to not be if but when Jarrett Stidham would be supplanted by one of the rookie QBs. Like the Jags, however, New England passed on all of them and showed that they weren’t lying when they said they believed in Stidham as their starter. Much like with Minshew, it would be difficult to give more than a 2-year contract with the risk of another rookie coming in 2021 but these two (Stidham and Minshew) may be the two most underrated quarterbacks available in Superflex leagues next year.

Drew Lock – Denver Broncos

We knew that John Elway was high on Drew Lock’s potential and wasn’t going to give much in the way of competition for his job so his value as a starter next year was solid. Still, the Broncos went and drafted receivers in the first two rounds (Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler) and also grabbed combine speed freak Albert Okwuegbunam in the fourth round. Along with signing Melvin Gordon in free agency, John Elway has stocked the cupboard for Drew Lock moving forward. If the 2^nd year QB doesn’t leap forward, both in the statistical and wins department it will be a huge letdown to the organization.

Running Back

Jordan Howard – Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins were a top candidate to draft one of the first running backs of the board but instead focused on protecting their new franchise QB. Jordan Howard’s stock kept rising with each passing round that the Dolphins didn’t select a runner. Finally, on day 3 they acquired another RB albeit by trading their 5^th round selection to the 49ers in exchange for Matt Brieda. Brieda has been a solid role player the last two seasons with San Francisco but he doesn’t pose as big of a threat to Howard’s value as any of the top rookies would have projected. Howard may become the new Frank Gore in RSO, gobbling up 1-year, $3M deals and being a surprisingly good depth player for savvy fantasy owners year after year.

Leonard Fournette – Jacksonville Jaguars

It is ironic that being good at your job as a running back actually can make you a liability instead of an asset in the NFL. The Jaguars selected Fournette 4^th overall in 2017 and while he has been overshadowed by fellow classman Christian McCaffrey, Fournette has over 3,700 total yards in his first three seasons. The team likely expects him to demand a lucrative paid day soon and were rumored to be shopping him before the draft. This decreased his fantasy value as the idea of him being traded to a team in more of a timeshare role would be likely. However, no team bought on the opportunity and the Jaguars never addressed the position in the draft. Now heading into 2020 the Jaguars once again do not seem to have a real threat to Fournette’s touches and targets. He should see a nice rebound in value and will be an RB2 with weekly RB1 upside again this season.

Wide Receiver

DeVante Parker – Miami Dolphins

Similar to Jordan Howard, the risk of a first-round replacement was looming over DeVante Parker. Paker finally showed last year some of his talents as a former 1^st round selection and earned himself a big payday because of it. Now with no rookie threat, Parker is the clear WR1 with only Allen Hurns and surprising talent Preston Williams coming back from his season-ending injury. We still have to wait and see whether Tua Tagovailoa starts game one or if Ryan Fitzpatrick will hold the reins till the rookie is fully acclimated but Parker should be the main target for either and will hopefully continue where he finished off last season.

Curtis Samuel & Robbie Anderson – Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers went all defense in Matt Rhule’s first season as head coach which bodes well for his starting receivers. D.J. Moore was already the alpha and his value was set regardless of if/where another receiver was brought in. For Curtis Samuel and Robbie Anderson however, any receiver drafted in the first 3 rounds probably would have crushed their fantasy prospects but it never happened. Expectations need to be tempered since new starting quarterback Teddy Bridgwater isn’t necessarily Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers in terms of elevating multiple fantasy-relevant receivers at the same time. However, for two players that had their value free falling the last two months, it could have been a whole lot worse.

N’Keal Harry – New England Patriots

Justin Jefferson was a sneaky interest rumored to be on the Patriots radar at pick 23 however, Minnesota snagged him one pick earlier so they reversed course and traded out of the first round entirely. Jefferson would have been a great compliment to Harry as a big slot receiver that could transition the team from the fan-favourite Julian Edelman. Regardless, with no competition being drafted and a second-year learning Josh McDaniel’s system if Harry can stay healthy he should see a solid rebound in his production. Grab last year’s WR1 while rookie fever is in full force.

Losers

Quarterback

Jacoby Brissett – Indianapolis Colts

People will point to Aaron Rodgers and Carson Wentz as big losers due to their team’s drafting high at the quarterback position. Both Rodgers and Wentz though still have massive dead money in 2020 and in Wentz’s case also 2021. The fan-based would also revolt if either were to be jettisoned for unproven rookies. The biggest quarterback value hit is instead Jacoby Brissett. Brissett was replaced for one year by Philip Rivers but now may be in jeopardy of losing the job in the long run too by the Colts drafting Jacob Eason in the fourth round. Maybe if he is traded to a team like the Patriots his value will return but for now, his 2020 value is that of a backup in the NFL and a waiver add in fantasy until further notice.

Running Back

Kerryon Johnson – Detroit Lions

Both of Kerryon Johnson’s first two seasons had been shorted due to injury but in his time on the field, he showed the ability to be the primary carrier in the Lions’ backfield. Unfortunately, that was not enough to prevent Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia from drafting who draft experts had as their RB1 De’Andre Swift out of Georgia. Swift is an every-down back who should immediately step in as the RB1 for Detroit. The best-case scenario for Johnson now is to have a role similar to Giovanni Bernard in Cincinnati or to what Tevin Coleman was to the Falcons as a change of pace RB2 that can be called upon in case of injury.

Darrell Henderson – Los Angeles Rams

Those who drafted Henderson last year were expecting him to carve out a role opposite to Todd Gurley and one day take over the starting job. Well, he didn’t provide much in the way value last year but with Gurley getting cut it seemed like his time was finally about to come. Then the Rams drafted Cam Akers in the second round and the bubble burst. Maybe the Rams learned this time around that it is better to use two running backs in complement with one another rather than riding one into the ground. That is what Henderson owners have to be hoping for otherwise, fantasy owner’s hefty investment will likely be a large blunder.

Damien Williams – Kansas City Chiefs

We knew that running back was a point of interest for the Chiefs but like the Patriots’ QB situation we weren’t sure exactly whether they felt it was as big a priority as the fantasy community thought it was. They showed everyone how important it was when they selected Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the final pick in the first round. Fantasy owners were praying that a team like Tampa Bay or Kansas City would take CEH as his skillset fit perfectly with what both teams do on offense. CEH’s selection all but likely puts him top 2 in rookie drafts, meanwhile, Damien Williams’ owners will be left holding bag to see if he can provide a few retro fantasy weeks before he falls back to fantasy obscurity.

Aaron Jones & Jamaal Williams – Green Bay Packers

The Packers’ drafting was perplexing but at least the RB selection was expected by this writer. I had a conversation with a league mate discussing Aaron Jones and his value and suggested the team was unlikely to see him as valuable as he sees himself and would likely draft a running back this year to compliment him and then move off Jones in 2021. Drafting AJ Dillion in the second round has that kind of vibe and with Dillion’s skillset being that of a power back Jones’ touchdown upside should dramatically fall back from his stellar 17 TDs in 2019. Jamaal Williams had minimal fantasy value before Dillon’s selection but now he should be a redundancy and likely a waiver-wire option to all but the deepest of leagues.

Wide Receiver

Michael Gallup – Dallas Cowboys

The first big surprise of the first round was the fall of CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas Cowboys selecting him with the 17^th pick. Nobody should fault Jerry Jones for taking what was likely his best player available and keeping Lamb out of division rival Philadelphia’s hands. What it does do however is put a damper on what was maybe a rising sleeper in Michael Gallup. Gallup made great strides in his second season behind Amari Cooper and with the possibility of Cooper leaving via free agency his stock was slowly increasing. Cooper did eventually resign but this was seen as a good thing as Gallup was likely more valuable as a WR2 than a true WR1 in the Cowboy’s offense. Fast forward to today and it is hard to see Gallup being anything more than the fourth option behind Cooper, Lamb, and Ezekiel Elliot. He will still have his games but other than best ball formats it will be difficult to predict when his days will be.

Tyrell Williams – Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders were taking a receiver in the draft and likely it was going to be one in the first round. It was also probable that they took a second receiver later in the draft just due to the lack of depth at the position. However, taking three receivers in the first three rounds shows that Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden prioritized the position and felt that a total rebuild was in order. The only relevant carry over from the 2019 wide receiver room, Tyrell Williams will likely hang around the team for the 2020 season due to the uncertainty of training camps and the need for a veteran option. His surprisingly strong 2019 season, however, is likely to be the end of the road for his fantasy production.

DeSean Jackson – Philadelphia Eagles

After drafting Jalen Reagor out of TCU 21^st overall it was believed that this should be the end for Alshon Jeffery and his time in Philadelphia. While I do think this will be Jeffery’s final season with the Eagles I think he can still be fantasy relevant in 2020. The receiver who is more immediately affected by drafting Reagor is DeSean Jackson. The 33-year old speed receiver has been banged up the past couple of years and played just one meaningful game last year. Reagor fits as his direct replacement with his blazing speed capabilities, therefore, making Jackson’s services redundant. The Eagles may hold onto Jackson through the 2020 season because of his dead money and cap space savings but it is unlikely his role is much more than for veteran leadership.

Tight End

Jimmy Graham – Chicago Bears

Rather than the quick death that Rob Gronkowski brought to his fantasy value by retiring last year, Jimmy Graham owners have been left holding the bag on a slow, painful decline to one of the best tight ends in fantasy over the last decade. His move to Chicago brought a sliver of hope that a guy like Nick Foles might be an upgrade at the position for the Bears and their offense could be at least moderate to fantasy value outside Allen Robinson. However, the Bears traded up in the second round to make their first selection of the 2020 draft tight end Cole Kmet. With the team prioritizing a rookie in their draft and having 8 other options on the depth chart it will be difficult to see Jimmy Graham being anything more than an extra tight end used for your primary tight end’s bye week.

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2017 RSO Rookie Mock Draft v3.0

By Bob Cowper

Updated: August 23rd 2017

This August update was the hardest mock I have done so far for RSO (including my first 2018 mock which is yet to be published). It’s easy to fall into the trap of weighting preseason action too heavily so I tried to fight that urge as much as . I’m sure you will disagree with a number of these picks and I’d like to hear about it @robertfcowper on Twitter. Please note, I am writing this before the third week of preseason games which is typically when we see the most “realistic” preseason football and you’ll likely be reading it during or after those games.

1.01 – LEONARD FOURNETTE, RB, JAGUARS
1.02 – COREY DAVIS, WR, TITANS
1.03 – CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY, RB, PANTHERS

I’ve had Fournette and Davis as my 1.01 and 1.02, in that order, from the beginning and don’t plan to change them now. Fournette’s value may be negatively impacted by QB Blake Bortles if he continues to struggle like he has so far in the preseason and Davis’s injury hurts his immediate value slightly. Neither falls behind McCaffrey for me, but McCaffrey’s solid preseason work pushes him into a close third in my first tier. If you need a RB over WR, I wouldn’t fault you for getting caught up in the CMC hype at 1.02.

1.04 – DALVIN COOK, RB, VIKINGS
1.05 – JOE MIXON, RB, BENGALS

In addition to moving McCaffrey out of this tier, I decided to flip-flop Cook and Mixon. Mixon may end up with the more productive career over time but on RSO we are drafting for more immediate production as rookie contracts are only three or four years long. Cook has an easier route to RB1 touches with Latavius Murray in front of him rather than Mixon who has Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard to battle.

1.06 – ZAY JONES, WR, BILLS

I was high on Zay previously having him at 1.10 but since July his stock has risen due to personnel moves in Buffalo. Sammy Watkins was traded, Jordan Matthews was acquired and Anquan Boldin signed and promptly retired. Ultimately that’s a net positive for Jones. The Bills won’t be great, but neither was East Carolina.

1.07 – OJ HOWARD, TE, BUCS

Howard stays the course here at 1.07. I haven’t seen or heard anything that encourages me to move him up or down yet. Don’t forget to grab Cameron Brate too because like most rookie TEs he will need time to develop.

1.08 – KAREEM HUNT, RB, CHIEFS
1.09 – D’ONTA FOREMAN, RB, TEXANS

Foreman has had better success so far during the preseason but I think Hunt has a higher ceiling for the near future. Even if Hunt can’t beat out Spencer Ware for the starting role, he will have value in the passing game. Foreman could see short yardage work so a line of 350 yards but 6-7 TDs wouldn’t be surprising. I originally put players like David Njoku and John Ross ahead these two because of their upside but I’m leaning more towards the sure thing as we get closer to the season.

1.10 – MIKE WILLIAMS, WR, CHARGERS

In true dynasty formats, Williams should not fall this far. However, in our RSO format, there’s a good chance you lose out on 20-30% of Williams’ rookie contract due to his current injuries. His ceiling is higher than that of Jones, Howard, Hunt and Foreman but his floor is lower.

2.01 – ALVIN KAMARA, RB, SAINTS

I’ve hated on Kamara a lot. It’s time to move him up my list though. So far this preseason he has just nine carries but they have been very productive. He has a 50 yard TD carry and 96 total yards; even if you remove the long carry, Kamara still averages 5.75 yards per carry on his other carries. He’ll also be a factor in the passing game, which like with Hunt, will allow him to offer some value as a rookie even with limited carries.

2.02 – DAVID NJOKU, TE, BROWNS

The bloom might be off the rose for Njoku. A report from a few weeks ago showed coach Hue Jackson’s frustration at Njoku’s hands. Plus he suffered an ankle injury in Monday’s game against the Giants (too soon as of this writing to know if it’s serious). He’s still an athletic freak with high upside so he’s worth a speculative pick at the top of the second.

2.03 – JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER, WR, STEELERS
2.04 – SAMAJE PERINE, RB, REDSKINS

JJSS has just one catch and one carry so far but battled a minor injury to start camp. Perine has 14 carries so far (plus one 29 yard catch). I have not heard any glowing camp reports about either guy so they are basically holding steady despite being on crowded depth charts.

2.05 – MITCHELL TRUBISKY, QB, BEARS
2.06 – PATRICK MAHOMES, QB, CHIEFS
2.07 – DESHAUN WATSON, QB, TEXANS

I’m hedging my bet by putting all three of these quarterbacks together at this point but I truly believe the value in RSO drafts is too good to pass up. To lock up these rising stars for three or four years on a cheap contract is just a huge advantage. Sure, the guy you take has to “hit” but that’s the case with all of these rookies. I am a huge Mahomes fan and am encouraged by his 73% completion percentage and 3 TDs so far but it’s hard to ignore how good Trubisky has looked too and he has a better chance of starting Week 1. Watson will likely win the starting job but I have not been a fan of his so I’d rather take Mahomes and wait.

2.08 – JOHN ROSS, WR, BENGALS
2.09 – EVAN ENGRAM, TE, GIANTS
2.10 – CURTIS SAMUEL, RB, PANTHERS

These three have fallen significantly in my eyes. Ross, no surprise, has been injured. 2.08 might be harsh for Ross but I won’t own any shares of him this season if I have to take him in the first. I’m still worried about Engram’s lack of size and whether he can earn enough snaps at WR behind OBJ, Marshall and Shepard (although recent injuries to those three could linger and open the door). Samuel is supposed to be a “jack of all trades” type but until I see him in action and that the Panther’s offense can support him and CMC, he’ll be a “master of none” for me.

3.01 – TAYWAN TAYLOR, WR, TITANS
3.02 – KENNY GOLLADAY, WR, LIONS
3.03 – COOPER KUPP, WR, RAMS
3.04 – CHRIS GODWIN, WR, BUCS
3.05 – DEDE WESTBROOK, WR, JAGUARS

This group of receivers was tough to sort and I made a number of changes before settling on this. Westbrook and Golladay join the mock based off the success they have had in limited action thus far this preaseason. Westbrook had a single catch for a 42 yard touchdown in his first game and followed that with 6-131. Golladay started strong with a 3-53-2 game against the Colts and fell to just one reception for six yards against the Jets. Westbrook has off-field concerns and is likely a terrible human being but if he can ignite a stagnant Jaguars offense he’ll get some looks. Golladay’s hype train is speeding out of the station with plenty of hangers-on but I’m not ready to push him that high in my rankings after four NFL receptions. The other three receivers were in my original mock: Taylor and Godwin down a few picks and Kupp moved up. I still believe in Taylor who has taken advantage of Corey Davis missing time in camp and in the preseason and has 7 for 97 yards; pushing the QBs higher means Taylor falls to the third through no fault of his own. Kupp has a 8-105-1 line through two games. Sammy Watkins coming to town kills any hope of Kupp being the lead target for Jared Goff but he should beat out Robert Woods, et al by midseason. I’m disappointed so far by Godwin who has caught just three of his six targets. I am still hopeful that all of the attention devoted to Mike Evans, DJax and OJ Howard mean Godwin will have sneaky production.

3.06 – MARLON MACK, RB, COLTS
3.07 – WAYNE GALLMAN, RB, GIANTS

Signing Christine Michael this offseason threw some cold water on my Mack ranking. Why sign a journeyman like Michael to a crowded backfield after drafting Mack? Michael ended up getting hurt and is out for the season, but Mack was banged up too and missed the start of the preseason. Frank Gore and Robert Turbin can carry the load to start the season so the Colts might take it slow with Mack. Encouragingly, he did have seven touches for 49 yards in his first game action. I’ve had a man crush on Gallman since I started researching the 2016 Clemson Tigers and I haven’t given it up yet, although I continue to drop Gallman down my mock draft (2.09 to 3.05 to 3.07). I don’t believe in Paul Perkins and I’m not sure the Giants do either since they have more draft capital invested in Gallman than Perkins.

3.08 – JAKE BUTT, TE, BRONCOS
3.09 – DESHONE KIZER, QB, BROWNS

The true value of these two players will come down to when they get on the field. I rank them here with the expectation that they will start a majority of the season for their teams. Butt would have been a first round NFL talent if he wasn’t injured – he’s good value here. This late in your rookie draft, Kizer represents good value too even if he’s just QB28 at the end of the season. I’d rather lock these guys up on cheap long-term contracts now before their value crests in my auction draft (if it’s announced that they will be starting Week 1) or in free agency (if they get on the field a little later).

3.10 – TARIK COHEN, RB, BEARS

Cohen has impressed in this first two weeks of the preseason. His size is worrisome (he’s just 5’6″ and 180lbs) but it hasn’t hindered him yet. Cohen leads rookie RBs in yards (181) and leads the Bears backs in attempts (18). His size will keep him from being a workhorse in the NFL but he will have a role. It’s interesting to note that the Bears invested a higher draft pick in Cohen (4th round) than Jordan Howard (5th), even after Howard’s great rookie season.

Note: When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com
Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, ESPN’s First Draft podcast, draftek.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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Slicing ’17 Rookie Class into 12 Tiers

By Dave Sanders

Updated: July 23rd 2017

According to a recent poll on our RSO Twitter feed, about 50% of RSO leagues have not yet conducted their rookie drafts. As you’re continuing your preparation, I’m here to provide my tiered rankings of the top 50 rookies. Navigating three to four rounds of a rookie draft isn’t easy. My tiers are designed to help you know when to buy or sell so you can accumulate the best possible rookie class, at great value!

So let’s begin…

Tier 1

1. Corey Davis WR TEN

While Corey Davis may not be quite the same level of prospect as recent 1.01/1.02 picks Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, and Todd Gurley, he’s undoubtedly the best prospect in this class and the only receiver I’m willing to bet will be a true NFL #1. Putting my money where my mouth is, I already have 3 shares and am aiming for more.

Tier 2

2. Joe Mixon RB CIN
3. Christian McCaffrey RB CAR
4. Leonard Fournette RB JAX

To say you can’t go wrong with picks 2, 3, and 4 would be inaccurate. In a few years, all three will have differing values. But at this point, the margins between each are razor-thin.

Consistent with my general strategy, I’m going to often choose the most talented player regardless of their potential non-talent-related downfalls such as injury history, off-the-field issues, etc. I’ll take Joe Mixon at 2. He’s the only RB in this class that I believe truly has an elite RB1 ceiling. My rankings 3rd and 4th ranked players differ depending on your scoring system. PPR -> Christian McCaffrey. Standard -> Leonard Fournette.

Tier 3

5. Dalvin Cook RB MIN

While a sub-10th percentile SPARQ score terrifies me, Dalvin Cook‘s college tape tells a different story. I firmly believe that he’s the most talented back on the Minnesota Vikings and it isn’t remotely close. How soon he will earn playing time may be another story. He will need to improve drastically in pass-protection and ball security to earn playing time.

After the 1.05 pick, this draft class falls off a cliff. If you’re slated to pick 6th or later in the first round of a rookie draft this year, I’d advise shopping that pick for help now or 2018/2019 picks.

Tier 4

6. Mike Williams WR LAC

Back injuries are scary. Back injuries are especially scary when learning a NFL playbook for this first time, getting acclimated to a NFL playbook, and completing for playing time among a crowded group of talented receivers. Even if he fully recovers from this injury in time for the season, he’s unlikely to contribute in a meaningful way this season. Still my 1.06, I’d only make that pick if I’ve exhausted every trade possible without coming to an agreement. If Mike Williams struggles for playing time, but appears healthy when on the field, he might be a buy-low target at the trade deadline or during the 2018 off-season

For more info on his injury and the potential need for surgery if the non-surgical route doesn’t work, I’d recommend listening to the AUDIBLE LIVE! Podcast from June 8th as Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel on Twitter) provides great insight.

Tier 5

7. Alvin Kamara RB NO
8. John Ross WR CIN
9. David Njoku TE CLE
10. Evan Engram TE NYG
11. Samaje Perine RB WAS
12. O.J. Howard TE TB
13. Kareem Hunt RB KC

Even if he doesn’t develop as an inside runner, Alvin Kamara will still be a very productive pass-catching back in the NFL. The Saints offense is very RB friendly and neither Adrian Peterson or Mark Ingram are locks for the Saints’ 2018 roster.

Love John Ross‘ talent, but hate the landing spot. Andy Dalton isn’t the ideal QB for him, especially behind a poor offensive line that may force them to focus on getting the ball out of his hands quickly.

My tight end rankings are based on my belief in their long-term upside. Love David Njoku‘s talent and his situation isn’t as bad as many believe, especially with the release of Gary Barnidge. Evan Engram should settle in as a big slot receiver, though classified as a TE, for the Giants once they release he can’t handle the typical blocking duties of an in-line TE.

O.J. Howard likely will end up as the best NFL TE, but I’m worried that his talent as a blocker may limit his fantasy potential.

Samaje Perine doesn’t feel like a 1st rounder to me. I would do everything possible to trade the 1.11 pick for a random 2018 1st. He was graded by many as a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick dynasty rookie pick, but has catapulted into the 1st round due to his promising landing spot in Washington. Betting on him to the next Jordan Howard is dangerous. Barring that type of breakout, I expect Washington to be in play for signing a free agent or drafting a top RB prospect in 2018.

Rounding out this tier is Kareem Hunt – a running back who dazzled on tape, but disappointed at the NFL combine. Joining a Spencer Ware in the Kansas City backfield, many believe Hunt will overtake Ware for the majority of carries by mid-season. I believe this is far from a lock and would expect Ware to lead KC in carries this year, by a 2:1 ratio.

Tier 6

14. JuJu Smith-Schuster WR PIT
15. Chris Godwin WR TB
16. Carlos Henderson WR DEN
17. James Conner RB PIT
18. Zay Jones WR BUF
19. Curtis Samuel WR CAR

Higher on Carlos Henderson than most, I love his ability after the catch. It’s also worth mentioning that aging receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders aren’t long-term barriers to playing time in Denver.

Tier 7

20. Taywan Taylor WR TEN
21. D’Onte Foreman RB HOU
22. Jeremy McNichols RB TB

Loved Taywan Taylor pre-draft and couldn’t have hoped for a much better landing spot. Great target in the late 2nd or early 3rd round of your draft.

Tier 8

23. Melvin Mack RB IND
24. Kenny Galladay WR DET
25. ArDarius Stewart WR NYJ
26. Gerald Everett TE LAR
27. Joe Williams RB SF
28. Josh Reynolds WR LAR
29. Chad Williams WR ARI

This group includes several recent ADP risers: Kenny Galladay, ArDarius Stewart, Joe Williams, and Chad Williams. In each of my drafts, I want to land several players from this tier.

Tier 10

30. Jamaal Williams RB GB
31. Aaron Jones RB GB
32. Patrick Mahomes QB KC

In both redraft and dynasty, Ty Montgomery is the back I want in Green Bay though it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Packers drafted 3 running backs. If everything breaks right for either rookie back, Williams and Jones could be featured in one of the NFL’s best offenses. That alone makes them solid values in the 3rd round.

If early rookie drafts are any indication, I’m going to be heavily invested in Patrick Mahomes. While he’ll need to be more consistent to succeed at the next level, I can’t help but drool at his raw ability. His landing spot, under Andy Reid’s tutelage, could not be better. Let’s not forget that Andy Reid used to be criticized during his Eagles days for passing too much. Mahomes will be put into position to not only succeed, but also develop into a QB1 in fantasy.

Tier 11

33. Cooper Kupp WR LAR
34. Wayne Gallman RB NYG
35. Amara Dorboh WR SEA
36. Deshaun Watson QB HOU
37. Adam Shaheen TE CHI
38. DeShone Kizer QB CLE
39. Mitchell Trubisky QB CHI

Tier 12

40. Ishmael Zamora WR OAK
41. Jonnu Smith TE TEN
42. Josh Malone WR CIN
43. Jehu Chessen WR KC
44. Chad Kelly QB DEN
45. Dede Westbrook WR JAX

Tier 13

46. Shelton Gibson WR PHI
47. Jake Butt TE DEN

48. Elijah McGuire RB NYJ
49. Brian Hill RB ATL
50. Donnel Pumphrey RB PHI

Bio: An avid fan of all things NFL, Dave has been playing fantasy football since 1999. Though Dave participates in all types of fantasy football including redraft and daily, he prefers dynasty and keeper leagues as talent evaluation and scouting are integral components of each. Follow him on Twitter @DaveSanders_RSO

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Rookie Mock Draft v2.0

By Bob Cowper

Updated: July 23rd 2017

It’s been awhile since the halcyon days before the NFL Draft when opinions and rookie mock drafts were full of optimistic caveats like “he would be a perfect fit with the [INSERT YOUR TEAM NAME].” Now that we know everybody’s landing place, it should be much easier to mock draft the rookies, right? At the top, I would say yes but after 1.07 it’s mostly a crap shoot. As I felt before, although they have shifted slightly, there are definite tier breaks and groupings of like players. Below I have ran through a three round rookie mock draft for a typical 10-team RSO league. If your league plays Superflex or 2 QB, you should adjust by moving the QBs up about 10-15 picks each in my opinion. Keep in mind this is a mock draft and not my straight rankings (which you can view and read about here; my God do I wish I had a do-over on some of those already!) so it’s a combination of my own personal preferences plus those of the dynasty “community” to create what I hope is a good approximation of what your league will look like. Along the way, I will offer some thoughts about why I grouped the players the way I did and will offer any details about how my personal rankings differ from the mock draft. Enjoy!

1.01 – Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars

1.02 – Corey Davis, WR, Titans

Many dynasty rankings are starting to converge on the opinion of Davis over Fournette. I have not changed my opinion yet when it comes to RSO leagues. I think both will be fantastic NFL players but you need to keep RSO’s format in mind. Fournette is likely to be fed the rock over and over early in his career until his body breaks down because the Jags lack offensive weapons; meanwhile the state of the Titans offense is less dire and Davis has the luxury of being eased into a starring role alongside QB Marcus Mariota and the RB duo of Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry. If I had to guess who would be a better pro in Year 5, I would put my money on Davis. As an RSO owner, that’s not what you’re worrying about though because your rookie contract is either 3 or 4 years long. I think Fournette will realize more immediate value and that is why I still have him as my first overall rookie pick.

1.03 – Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers

1.04 – Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals

1.05 – Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings

McCaffrey has supplanted Mike Williams in this second tier in my opinion, especially in PPR. The order of the three RBs is a toss-up but I feel McCaffrey is the safest pick of the three so I put him first. I have heard of some dynasty players still considering Cook in the top three picks based on his spectacular tape but I am scared off by his questionable combine; Mixon obviously has character concerns. Admittedly, I decided against Mixon at 1.07 in one of my RSO leagues and instead traded the pick – I wasn’t desperate for a RB and had a second thought about taking on a guaranteed contract for a guy who already comes into the league with a domestic violence issue. In hindsight it might have been the wrong decision but I felt it was what was best for my team. I wouldn’t fault anybody for grabbing one of these RBs at 1.03, ultimately it comes down to personal preference.

1.06 – Mike Williams, WR, Chargers

1.07 – OJ Howard, TE, Bucs

Williams’ and Howard’s value changed for me after the NFL Draft because of their landing spots. Williams has prototypical size to be an NFL WR1 but he joins the Chargers and will have to contend with the chemistry between Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen and fight for targets with the ascendant Tyrell Williams. If Allen gets injured tomorrow, which we know is possible, the narrative can change quickly which is why I have Williams above Howard. Before the NFL Draft, I predicted that the Bucs would take the athletic David Njoku to pair with Mike Evans and create red zone nightmares for their opponents. I had the name of the TE wrong but the logic is still the same: joining the Bucs is far better for Howard’s fantasy potential than if the Browns took him at #12 as was rumored.

1.08 – John Ross, WR, Bengals

1.09 – David Njoku, TE, Browns

1.10 – Zay Jones, WR, Bills

2.01 – JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers

2.02 – Evan Engram, TE, Giants

This tier of pass catchers just edges out the next batch of running backs for me in terms of this RSO mock draft. The NFL is a passing league and a majority of RSO leagues feature PPR scoring so it stands to reason that you should lean towards these guys over the likes of Kareem Hunt, D’Onta Foreman and Samaje Perine who are featured below. Ross paces this group, literally and figuratively, because of his speed and big play ability – he can change a game more so than Jones or Smith-Schuster. Jones thrived in a short passing system in college and should see plenty of short routes with Tyrod Taylor under center in 2017; the fact that the Bills did not extend Sammy Watkins also helps increase Jones’ value. I’m higher on Jones than most and think he will prove to have a very high ceiling from the start. Smith-Schuster peaked in 2015 which is slightly concerning and may start start at WR4 on the depth chart behind some combination of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Sammie Coates and Eli Rogers (not to mention target stealing RB Le’Veon Bell). Njoku gets the nod over Engram for me because of his bigger size and the likelihood of seeing targets from Day One, albeit from a poorer QB. Engram is basically a WR and was the smallest of the coveted TEs in this class; I fear that he may loose snaps to Will Tye if he is not able to hold his own as a blocker.

2.03 – Kareem Hunt, RB, Chiefs

2.04 – D’Onta Foreman, RB, Texans

2.05 – Samaje Perine, RB, Redskins

As I mentioned above, none of these guys are prolific pass catchers (Hunt’s 2016 aside, when he had 9 more receptions than the previous three years combined) so they fall a notch in my mock draft. Hunt has the best chance of being that dual-threat RB which is why he tops this tier for me. Plus he was a four year starter at Toledo without any major injury concerns so that is also a plus. The Chiefs offense was in the top half in most offensive categories and with literally zero draft capital invested in Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West, the Chiefs won’t hesitate to make the switch if Ware falters in the least. Meanwhile, Foreman will have to start behind Lamar Miller who still has three years on his deal (but Houston has a potential out after 2017) so his path to starter’s touches may be longer. Perine is an interesting player because he was largely overshadowed by his Sooner backfield partner, Joe Mixon, and he now joins a crowded but talent poor Redskins’ backfield. At various points of the offseason and regular season, it looked like the Redskins feature back would be Matt Jones (who can’t stop fumbling the ball), then 7th round pick Keith Marshall (who got hurt) and then finally Rob Kelley (whose nickname is Fat Rob). If Perine proves to be the steady and reliable back he was in college he will win the job for the dysfunctional Redskins by mid-season.

2.06 – Curtis Samuel, RB/WR, Panthers

2.07 – Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints

I grouped these two “gadget” players together because I have concerns about the number of touches they will get early in their career. Samuel proved to be a productive rusher and receiver in college but I’m not convinced he’s good enough at either to stick in the NFL. The sample size on Kamara as a true running back is too small to put any stock into the possibility of him beating out Adrian Peterson or Mark Ingram (if he doesn’t get traded). Kamara only had 210 career carries for the Volunteers which is fewer than most of the aforementioned RBs averaged per season. He is a capable receiver (74 career catches and a 9.2 average) so he will see action on passing downs but his upside is limited by the 6-8 touches I expect each game.

2.08 – Chris Godwin, WR, Bucs

2.09 – Taywan Taylor, WR, Titans

Godwin and Taylor find themselves here at the back of the second round which is a great value in my personal opinion. I actually have Godwin ranked much higher, for the same reasons as OJ Howard, and am ecstatic when I find him later in drafts. Taylor is not well known which can work to your advantage. He put up crazy production the last two years on a mediocre Western Kentucky team (154-3,200-34) and tested reasonably well at the combine (4.50 40 yard dash, best 3-cone drill, sixth best broad jump). As the second WR taken by the Titans he will fly under the radar but grab him now so you hold him when I predict he breaks out in Year Two.

2.10 – Pat Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

3.01 – Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans

I differ from most RSO owners with my opinions on QBs. I feel you should target the best rookies in the middle of the second round so you can take your pick rather than being at the end of the inevitable run on them. My top pick in this class is Mahomes – he has a lot of mechanics work to do but should be the Chiefs starter by 2018. I am not a fan of Watson but he will have the opportunity to start sooner than most other rookies so he’s worth the gamble. Just like in the NFL, if you can find a startable QB and lock him up for years on a cheap deal it is well worth the risk.

3.02 – Marlon Mack, RB, Colts

3.03 – Carlos Henderson, WR, Broncos

3.04 – Jeremy McNichols, RB, Bucs

3.05 – Wayne Gallman, RB, Giants

The value in this next tier relies heavily on the health and production of the veterans ahead of the rookies on the depth chart. Because their talent is a step below the higher ranked rookies, they may not be able to overcome the veterans in training camp and instead will need a “lucky break” to get their chance. Mack will begin behind the ageless Frank Gore but he’s going to break down, and for good, sooner or later. Henderson joins a crowded group of WRs on the Broncos and will need an injury to Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders to crack the starting lineup; he’ll also need to contend with the young projects of Bennie Fowler and Cody Latimer. McNichols might have the best shot to ingratiate himself early as Doug Martin is suspended to start the season but reports are that Martin is doing great in OTAs so that puts a dent in McNichols’ prospects after the suspension. I am a Wayne Gallman apologist and think he has a shot to beat out Paul Perkins. Perkins did enough in his 112 carries to at least start the season as the RB1 though. Most people would have Gallman lower but my love for him is too hard to ignore!

3.06 – Jamaal Williams, RB, Packers

3.07 – Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams

3.08 – Jake Butt, TE, Broncos

This tier features three players whose pure talent may not warrant the pick but their situation does – in contrast to the tier above. The Packers no longer have Eddie Lacy or James Starks so that only leaves converted receiver Ty Montgomery as the incumbent. Both Williams and Aaron Jones will have ample opportunity to take over the lead role. The same goes for Kupp who is looking at also-rans Robert Woods and Tavon Austin ahead of him on the depth chart; if Kupp can get on the field early and create a connection with QB Jared Goff he could prove to be a huge value. TE Jake Butt’s value took a huge hit after he tore his ACL at the end of the season. Chances are he will be okay to play early in the season and the Broncos will need him as Virgil Green did not show us much last year.

3.09 – Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bears

3.10 – Deshone Kizer, QB Browns

The same logic applies here as it does for Mahomes and Watson – grab potential starting QBs in your rookie draft to lock them into cheap long term contracts. Both Trubisky and Kizer join bad teams that could throw them into the fire early. I doubt they have much value in Year One, like Goff last year, but they are worth the stash given the small cap hit if you’re forced to cut them.

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