The Watch List: Week 10
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Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. Check back throughout the season as The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year.
Storylines to Watch
- Heisman Update: Penn State RB Saquon Barkley was mostly held in check against Ohio State but he did total 67 yards and two touchdowns. His first score came on the opening kickoff and just shows how effortlessly he can change the outlook of a game. I’m not yet ready to advocate for him to go first overall in the NFL Draft but he is undoubtedly a Top 3 pick for me. Louisville QB Lamar Jackson had another big game (491 combined passing and rushing yards with 4 total TDs) but the Cardinals lost again, this time to Wake Forest. I just don’t think the voters will go for him on a barely bowl eligible team. Much like stubborn baseball Hall of Fame voters refuse to put anybody in unanimously, I don’t think Heisman voters will want to give Jackson a second award that puts him in the most rarefied of air while playing on a bad team. Bryce Love did ultimately sit out last Thursday against Oregon State which I think hurts his Heisman stock. Playing in a primetime (instead of 10:00pm or later) weeknight game on ESPN would have helped a lot of east coast voters see him live. So, who would I have second? It has to be Notre Dame RB Josh Adams. I am not sold on his prospects at the next level but he put up another huge game against a solid NC State defense. Adams went for 202 yards and a touchdown and is making it harder and harder to ignore him.
- CFP Rankings: I am writing this on Monday and Tuesday prior to the CFP ranking release “show.” A few thoughts… 1) why does this need to be a weekly show, just give us the rankings. 2) Remember, there is a lot of football left to play. Last year’s initial rankings were Alabama, Clemson, Michigan and Texas A&M. Michigan ended up 6th while A&M finished unranked. 3) Don’t be surprised to see Notre Dame at #4 in the CFP ranking despite being #5/8 in the AP/Coaches polls. It’s hard for Notre Dame to fly under the radar but they have in my opinion. They are 3-1 against AP ranked teams (nobody else has more than 2 such wins) and that one loss was by a single point to #2 Georgia – the committee will heavily value that.
- MACtion is Back: The novelty will wear off in a week or two but MACtion is back and I am excited. For the uninitiated, the MAC conference plays some Tuesday and Wednesday games later in the season on the ESPN networks. It gets them some national attention and gives us football every night of the week. Below in my Players to Watch section I highlight a few names you should keep an eye on when you tune in over the next few weeks.
Players to Watch (MACtion Edition)
- Logan Woodside, QB, Toledo: Woodside has a shot at being a late-round QB prospect if he finishes the season strong. So far this season his stats have been a mixed bag. He threw 45 TDs in 2016 and has 19 so far this season, so he’ll regress there; it’s hard to say that 35 TDs is a bad year but it’s regression nonetheless. He has significantly improved his INT rate this season (just 2 INTs on 232 attempts) but his completion percentage is down nearly 7%. I watched Woodside a few weeks ago against Eastern Michigan, it was actually one of my Games to Watch, but he struggled; Toledo got the win but he but he threw for just 289 and no touchdowns. I expect him to get drafted but will likely start his career as a third stringer – little upside for RSO owners but he’s still a fun college QB to watch.
- AJ Ouellette, RB, Ohio: Ouellette is leading the MAC in rushing (752 yards) and has seven total touchdowns. He’s the best offensive player on the best East division team so we’ll probably see a lot of him in the coming weeks. I would be concerned about his durability if I was a scout so I doubt we see his name mentioned in the Spring. He missed last season due to a foot injury and was supposedly injured earlier in the season with an “undisclosed injury” per RotoWorld; maybe the same foot but not sure. Ouellette has 121 carries this season and will surpass his previous totals (151, 160) in the coming weeks so it will be telling to see if he can finish the year healthy. He is a former walk-on so maybe I shouldn’t be counting him out.
- Corey Willis, WR, Central Michigan: I was high on Willis to start the season but he was slowed by a hand injury that forced him to miss multiple games. In his second game back he went for 5-98-3 against Ball State so hopefully he is now fully healed. Willis is not big (5’10” 175lb) or very fast (4.50 speed) but he has a knack for big plays. In the preseason, I compared him to John Brown and Travis Benjamin; both have had weeks of fantasy relevance this season so I think Willis should be on your sleeper radar.
- Anthony Johnson, WR, Buffalo: Admittedly, I have not watched a minute of Buffalo or Johnson play this season. I am including him simply because he leads the conference in receptions and reception yards and is second in receiving touchdowns. Per the Buffalo media guide, Johnson is a JUCO transfer who honestly did not see much success at that level (40 receptions, 993 yards and 7 TDs over two seasons at two different schools) so it’s surprising to see his 55-888-6 line in his first season of FBS competition.
- Anthony Winbush, DE, Ball State: Nothing new to report, Winbush is good. I’ve written about him twice now and still think he should get talked about more. He had a disappointing game against Toledo (just 2 tackles) but his dominating games against Illinois and Central Michigan show his potential (combined between those two games: 14 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, 1 forced fumble). Winbush leads the conference in sacks and forced fumbles. I have no idea how he projects to the next level because he’s undersized (6’1″ and I have seen his weight listed at 207, 225 and 240lbs); it will come down to his 40-yard dash and cone drills to see if he has the speed and explosiveness to play upright as a 3-4 edge rusher.
- Darius Phillips, CB, Western Michigan: Phillips is a darling of Pro Football Focus and is one of their draft board risers. He started the year strong with two great games against USC and Michigan State (4 tackles, 3 passes defended, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery and two kick return TDs) but has since slowed. Phillips was originally recruited as a WR and actually saw his first offensive touches since 2014 a few weeks ago against Ball State. In 2014, Phillips had 32 receptions, 479 receiving yards and 2 TDs as a freshman receiver. He’s a talented player and I think the Broncos coaching staff will use some of these nationally televised MACtion games as an opportunity to get their guy some pub. If you play in an IDP league you should consider Phillips because he has good ball skills and the chance for touches on special teams (or even offense in a limited package).
Games to Watch
- #7 Penn State at #24 Michigan State, 12:00pm Saturday on FOX: This matchup has lost some of it’s hype after both teams lost last weekend. Still, it’s an important divisional matchup because the two 4-1 teams are just one game back of 5-0 Ohio State. The winner will be like a dog waiting under the table for scraps as the Buckeyes finish out their season. Plus, you should take any opportunity to watch Saquon Barkley.
- South Carolina at #2 Georgia, 3:30pm Saturday on CBS: We know that Georgia is a very good team but I’d bet that most fans don’t realize that the Gamecocks are 6-2 (I didn’t). South Carolina’s rush defense is ranked 39th so it likely won’t stop the duo of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel but maybe they slow UGA enough to give sophomore QB Jake Bentley a chance.
- #18 Stanford at #25 Washington State, 3:30pm Saturday on FOX: An odd afternoon game for these two teams who are used to playing “PAC-12 after dark” games. I hope that Bryce Love is back from injury so that he doesn’t miss his second straight chance to capture the national spotlight. Prediction: Love goes but is outshined by the Cougars RB Jamal Morrow who has 747 total yards and 8 total TDs.
- #19 LSU at #1 Alabama, 8:00pm Saturday on CBS: I can’t remember the last time CBS had a primetime regular season game. Maybe I just haven’t been paying attention but I don’t think it’s common. So, let’s hope this one is uncommonly good. I expect a low scoring game because of the strength of the two defenses; Alabama’s defense is Top 10 in most categories while LSU’s is Top 25. LSU’s defensive weak spot is against the run where they are giving up 145 yards per game. Considering that Alabama averages 298.8 yards per game on the ground (7th in the FBS, 3rd if you remove the triple option teams), I give them the edge. Alabama’s one knock this season is their strength of schedule. Only one of their wins came against a ranked opponent and that was the opener against Florida State who lost their quarterback and were obviously overrated in the preseason. This one will be telling as it’s the Tide’s toughest test yet.
- #13 Virginia Tech at #9 Miami, 8:00pm Saturday on ABC: I have been saying over the last few weeks that Miami is overrated. Their last four wins have been by a combined 18 points against middling opponents. They have a tough schedule over the next two versus #13 Virginia Tech and #5 Notre Dame. It’s time for me to pay more attention to the Hurricanes and that’ll start this week. I’ll double down and guess that Miami loses both of these ranked contests.
Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…
- Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com
- Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
- Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
- Draft history: drafthistory.com
- Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
- Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
- Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty
Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.
