IDP Start/Sit: Week 14

By Jake

Updated: December 8th 2022

Here we are. Week 14. The final week of the fantasy regular season (in most leagues). Hopefully the journey up to this point with me has been a helpful and informative one, but we are not done yet! Let’s get these teams into the playoffs and bring home some of those sweet, sweet IDP fantasy football league championships!!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show for them are what is the ECR over from Fantasy Pros for this week.

WEEK 13 RECAP
DL:
Start: Uchenna Nwosu (2 sacks! 4 solos, TFL, 3 QB hits, FF. What a performance!!)
Start: Leonard Floyd (1 assist, 1 QB hit. What a whiff, but he played 94% snaps, process felt good, just didn’t come show in the stat sheet for IDP.)

Sit: Matthew Judon (2 solos, 1 assist, 1 QB hit, FR. The fumble recovery kind of saved his week and those are very fluky stats to count on.)

LB:

Start: Chad Muma (1.5 sacks, 7 solos, 4 assist, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits. An amazing week for the rookie, but he did depart with an ankle injury. Pay attention to that moving forward)

Start: Christian Harris (2 solos, 4 assist, PD. Played 100% snaps coming back from his injury, could for long-term, not great this week though.)

Sit: Lavonte David (1 sack, 10 solos, 2 assists, 2 TFLs, 1 QB hit. This is apparently what happens when you suggest to sit an IDP legend!)

DB:
Start: Rodney McLeod (5 solos, 1 assist, TFL, PD. A very consistent production from McLeod, just like we thought.)

Start: DeAndre Houston-Carson (3 solos, 2 assists, TFL. Not terrible, but would have liked to see a little bit more to call this a “win” this week.)

Sit: John Johnson III (1 assist, INT, PD. Week was saved by the interception, which was a wonky one if you watch the replay, but he made it nonetheless.)

START: Haason Reddick, Philadelphia Eagles, DL30

Haason in his first year with Philadelphia answered some of the questions about whether he was purely a volume play, or he could produce numbers with other talented DL plays around him. Questions answered and he has delivered on most fronts this season. Reddick has played 70% of the total snaps so far this season which gives him the foundation for production. He has also delivered a strong 13.5% pass-rush pressure rate for the year. Now he has a great matchup this week against the New York Giants. They have allowed a 26% pressure rate on the season (7th worst this season), and an 18% sack conversion rate (4th worst this season). Reddick should be a high-end DL2 this week.

START: Josh Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars, DL36

Josh Allen is a big-name edge rusher who hasn’t quite filled up the stat sheet the way some had hoped he would, with only 3.0 sacks. But he has been delivering some foundational things we like to see. He is seeing 77% of the snaps for his defense which are very strong numbers for an edge rusher. He has 44 pressures total on the season for a respectable 12.8% pass-rush pressure rate. Next up for Josh Allen is the Titans and their offensive line. They have allowed a 30% pressure rate on the season (worst in the league) and a 16% sack conversion rate (8th worst in the league) and should help Josh Allen find a way back into strong IDP production. Allen his a good DL2 this week.

SIT: Jerry Hughes, Houston Texans, DL23

Jerry Hughes has been one of the great stories for IDP (and NFL) production this year. 8 sacks and but only 16 tackles, Hughes is much more of an boom/bust play this season and has been delivering on that upside quite a bit this year. In his lower snaps, 61%, his upside can be limited. Pairing that with his matchup against the Cowboys this week, he is less than ideal. They are allowing an average pressure rate of 25% (tied for 12 best in the league) but are only allowing a 6% sack conversion rate (best in the league). Hughes is a DL4 this week.

START: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Cleveland Browns, LB31

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has taken the clear lead of the Cleveland Browns LB room with snap percentages of 80%, 95%, 96%, and 78%. Last week’s dip might seem a little concerning, but with Sione Takitaki out for the season, JOK is winning this war of attrition right now. He has seen his average solo tackles jump up from 4 to 5 over this increased stretch and a 1/2 assisted tackle per game up as well. He has also racked up 3 TFLs, QB hit, 3 PDs and a FF over this 4-game stretch. JOK is taking advantage of his opportunity and delivering for IDP. Between the snaps being there, the play-making (that we were all hoping from him this year), and a matchup against Cincinnati whose offense has been very strong over the last 5 games, JOK feels like a strong LB2.

START: Jaylon Smith, New York Giants, LB58

Jaylon Smith has gone from a high-end round 2 pick for the Cowboys, to a big 2nd contract, to cut, to a 2nd chance with the New York Giants. He has made the most out of it this year taking clear control of the LB room and has delivered a nice floor for IDP in the last few weeks. He has played 71% of the snaps for the defense in his 9 games with the Giants and has seen great usage in his last three, 74%, 91%, and 87%. He is averaging just under 7 tackles per game over his last three as well. With Dallas as the matchup this week, Jaylon Smith should see strong usage in defense of the Cowboys’ run game and their 7th best, 68 plays per game over the last 3 weeks. Smith has strong upside as a low-end LB3 this week.

SIT (INJURY): David Long Jr., Tennessee Titans, LB19

David Long Jr. has been a consistent target for me this year to have on my IDP teams, so sitting him feels counterintuitive. However, this is specifically related to the hamstring injury he just suffered. Soft tissue injuries can linger and as such, the Titans could be very slow in bringing him back in hopes of making sure he is available for the NFL playoffs. Long was already a DNP (did not participate) for Wednesday’s practice which is a big negative for him suiting up this week. If you are in a tight spot, Dylan Cole looks like the next man up behind him as he took 77% of the snaps once Long went out. You should be planning for life without Long this week and possible at least next.

START: Rayshawn Jenkins, Jacksonville Jaguars, DB33

Rayshawn Jenkins has been a model of consistency this season for IDP. Since week 3 this year, he has never been under the 5 tackle mark, has produced 9 passes defensed (a more indicative stat then INTs), and has even added 2 FFs in the last 3 weeks. Looking just at his consistent numbers without any major statistical marker jumping off the screen, he would feel in the right spot as a DB3 this week. But his usage in heavy run-game script against Detroit (39 box snaps!!) makes me believe he will be there a bunch this week against the Derrick Henry-led Titans and their running attack. You should consider Jenkins more of a low-end DB2 this week as he is in a situation to rack up a nice tackle floor.

START: Sauce Gardner, New York Jets, DB37

Sauce Gardner has made a splash in his rookie season and really made a name for himself as a top name in the CB discussion in the NFL. This week, I think he will be producing for IDP purposes as well. This week he gets the Buffalo Bills and presumably Stefon Diggs. And we need to look no further than last week to see how the Bills are not afraid of attacking a team’s top corner. Jonathan Jones had 11 targets that he led to 9 receptions against him, but also 6 solos and 2 assists. For Sauce this should mean he has a strong floor based on tackle opportunities if he gets targeted with big-play upside for PDs and/or an INT. Sauce has also only missed 4 tackles all season (7.3%), so you can count on the opportunities he does get. Gardner is a high-end DB3 with strong DB2 upside!

SIT (FADE): Talanoa Hufanga, San Francisco 49ers, DB12

Talanoa Hufanga has been a great story this year the way he burst on to the scene early this year with some big tackles, big plays, and big hair! (How can you not love this guy’s lettuce?!?) So how can we “sit” this guy you say? If you feel you can’t bench him, perhaps the best we can do then, is at least lower expectations. Hufanga has seen his box/DL snap alignment slowly trend downwards a bit and play much more in the FS role. The 49ers don’t have a strong need for him up when Warner/Greenlaw are healthy and productive. Queue Tom Brady and the Buccaneers this week, Mr. Brady loves to utilize the quick passing game more than anybody in the league with one of the fastest times-to-throw (2nd lowest with at least 100 attempts, 2.29) and throwing more pass attempts within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage (252) than any other QB this feels like a game for Greenlaw and Warner to deliver while Hufanga will become more big-play dependent. I would consider Hufanga a low-end DB2 this week and plan your roster accordingly.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 9

By Jake

Updated: November 3rd 2022

Here we are going into week 9 after the trade deadline and with some players on new team, let’s take a look at some of those streamers or players who could be joining your team this week! Additionally, week 8 was a doozy for last week’s start/sit with players being too hurt to play, others as a healthy scratch, and even an ejection!

WEEK 8 RECAP
DL:
Start: Kayvon Thibodeaux (1 QB Hit. Saw lots of snaps, just didn’t produce)
Start: Rasheem Green (1 solo, Titans only had 14 drop backs all game!)

Sit: Chandler Jones (1 solo)

LB:

Start: Quay Walker (4 solos, 1 assist, FF. On 15 snaps! If not for the ejection, this was looking like a top 10 week, but at least he didn’t kill your week)

Start: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Inactive Monday Night)

Sit: Tae Crowder (2 solos, 34% of snaps. Jaylon Smith looks like the new LB1 for NYG)

DB:
Start: Adrian Amos (4 solos, 1 assist. Had 3 more solos negated due to penalties. A borderline performance)

Start: Eric Rowe (Healthy scratch! Big miss and stay away for the rest of the season!)

Sit: Kyle Dugger (Ankle injury ended up keeping him out of the game)

START: Travon Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars, DL28

Travon Walker has been playing an elite level of snaps for a DL position, 58 snaps / game. He has posted solid tackle floor numbers this year as well with 4+ tackles in 6 of 8 weeks. His pass rush pressure rate is not ideal at just above 6%, but this week he has a favorable matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders who have allowed a 26% pass rush pressure rate and a 13% sack conversion rate. He has also made a couple of plays and not looked lost when in coverage, which does give him some additional big play upside (he already has 1 INT and 2 PDs as well). Walker may not be delivering FULL number one overall numbers quite yet in the NFL, but he has enough to be a DL2 this week for our IDP lineups.

START: Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL24

Gregory Rousseau has looked good on this Bills top defense and he has a strong defensive PFF and pass rush grade (81.9 and 83.6 respectively). The biggest problem (for IDP) is that Gregory does not get ideal snap count numbers to support overall IDP production. He is seeing just under 35 snaps / game which is good, but not where we’d like to see it. However, with the limited work, we have still seen 5 sacks already, consistent pressures, and the ability to make other plays too (2 PDs this season and an INT on self deflected pass last year). This ability with a favorable matchup against the New York Jets who have allowed a high 26% pressure rate, but a lower 10% sack conversion rate. Rousseau has the ability to take advantage of the pressures allowed and convert them into a sack (or two?) this week.

SIT: Rasheem Green, Houston Texans, DL29

Rasheem Green was a start for us last week and the process still seems sounds for him. He is still a viable place in most other weeks, however, his matchup this week against the Philadelphia Eagles is one of the worst matchups for any defensive lineman as the Eagles have one of the strongest overall offensive lines. They have the lowest pressure rate allowed in the league at 19% and 3rd best sack conversion rate at 8%. Green is someone to keep on your bench but look to another possible start for this week.

START: Nicholas Morrow, Chicago Bears, LB31

Mr. Morrow is in a situation where he was already seeing 100% snaps but was doing that with a very talented producer in Roquan Smith. With Roquan Smith moving on to the Baltimore Ravens Morrow is the guy in the middle of the defense and they should still be taking plenty of snaps as one of the lower tier defense this year. 82 tackles and 3 sacks made by Smith are now available for the rest of that Bears defense. Now, realistically, Morrow will not absorb most of the this, but even a significant portion will move Morrow up into the a consistent LB2 range week-to-week. If Morrow is not available, Jack Sanborn is a deeper look.

START: David Long Jr., Tennessee Titans, LB20

David Long Jr. continues to be the linebacker you want from the Titans as he delivers top-tier numbers week in and week out. Of the 7 games he’s played this year, he’s had at least 8 tackles in 5 of them. He’s also contributed 2 INTs and 4 PDs. He has no serious competition for snaps and with this level of production, he should be a top 15 LB or better moving forward. This level of production combined with his high quality of play (his PFF defensive grade of 74.7 is 13th among LBs) bodes well for his chances of getting a new deal from the Titans, which makes him a more stable asset in dynasty leagues. No matter what format you play, though, he’s a top option.

SIT: Isaiah Simmons, Arizona Cardinals, LB35

Isaiah Simmons went from playing over 90% of the snap last season to being sub-70% snap count this season. This kind of usage for a player that is designated as an LB but plays a large amount of slot corner (47% of total snaps) is less than ideal. Pair that with limited IDP production of just over 4 tackles / game. He has found ways to make some splash plays at least to make him relevant in some weeks with 1 INT (returned for TD), 1 sack, 2 FFs, and a FR. Isaiah has looked suspect in run defense at best but has shown some capability in pass coverage, this does not bode well for his usage as a LB. His boom weeks are only going to be something you can get by playing him week in and and week out, which means you will experience the down weeks too. Sad to think about a top 20 NFL draft pick be so under-utilized, but this might just be the Isaiah Simmons experience going forward.

START: Andre Cisco, Jacksonville Jaguars, DB45

Andre Cisco has come into his 2nd year and delivered some strong performance so far this year. He is playing 99% of the snaps so far this season and he is doing this primarily from a deep safety role, which tends to have less consistency but some find a way to be very relevant for IDP. So far this year, Cisco has been able to be a viable starter. His production of 4.75 tackles / game and 2 INTs on the year have given him a baseline that keeps him from killing you weekly. This week he has a matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders, they are top half of the league in intermediate and deep throws and Carr and Carr is top 10 in turnover worthy plays on those deep throws and with Cisco playing primarily deep, this is a matchup that should have some big-play upside for Cisco and a nice floor to balance it out.

START: Xavier Woods, Carolina Panthers, DB41

Xavier Woods had the distinction of being one of the very few defenders to have played 100% of all their snaps last season (1,208 total) and so far this year, he has played a strong 99% of the snaps this season. Xavier has played a strong number of snaps in the “IDP Sweet Spot” with a 51% total there. His production hasn’t matched the injured Jeremy Chinn’s production in years past while Chinn has been injured, but the process is sound and with a matchup against the Bengals this week who have feed Mixon the ball but have struggled to produce bigger plays with him, those in the sweet spot should be able to capitalize on this matchup this week and Woods should be one of those benefiting.

SIT: Jessie Bates III, Cincinnati Bengals, DB26

On the flip side of that IDP matchup, we have Jessie Bates III. Bates has been an IDP stalwart since coming into the league in 2018 and he has averaged 6.5 tackles per / game over that 4-year span, which is quite impressive in it’s right for any safety, but paired with the fact that he has consistently played as a deep safety, even better! However, this season he is averaging 4.5 tackles / game, a full two less per game! Panthers offense has looked revitalized (somehow?) ever since moving on from CMC and Matt Rhule, but the Falcons are not exactly a tough matchup and I am willing to give them one game due to the shakeup against the Bucs. However, there is a reason the QBs leading this team have not been highly sought after by others. Halloween has past and the Panthers offense will turn back into the pumpkin again. With a lower tier of production overall this year, the matchup against Carolina, it is time to find a different option for that DB2/3 role in your lineup.

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