IDP Start/Sit: Week 17

Updated: December 28th 2023

 

This is it. Championship week. Or third-place game. Or consolation bracket time. It doesn’t matter! You’re here and you are excited to chop it up on IDP thoughts and lineups, so you are doing it right! Let’s dive into Week 17!

Week 16 Recap

DL:

Start: Jonathan Allen (2 solos, 2 assists, 3 QB hits) 👎 – So close to getting home for the sack(s) 

Sit: Kayvon Thibodeaux (QB hit) 👍

LB:

Start: Dvin Lloyd (2 solos, 3 assist, TFL) 👎 

Sit: Nicholas Morrow (Ended up inactive, hopefully you pivoted in time to have someone) 

DB:

Start: Trenton Thompson (Ended up inactive, hopefully you pivoted in time to have someone) 

Sit: Rayshawn Jenkins (3 solos, 4 assists) 👎

Week 17 Starts & Sits

START: Michael Hoecht, Los Angeles Rams, DL53 (ED39)

Michael Hoecht game into this season as one of the few players from last year with any significant playing experience. He was able to parlay that in a starting role and he took advantage of that delivering a strong year here in 2023. We have seen this all year with a respectable 10.28% pass rush rate. He has shown increased success over the past 5 weeks as well with a good 14.5% win rate and a really good 19.4% pass rush win rate. While this hasn’t given us the sack production we would like to see, this week’s matchup against the Giants can be a nice salve for that drought. The Giants have one of the best matchups with their 30% pressure rate allowed as well as a 17% sack conversion rate, too. This wonderful cross-section of recent strong play and an ideal matchup have Hoecht as a strong play in championship week.

SIT: Justin Madubuike, Baltimore Ravens, DL33 (DT08)

Justin Madubuike has had a transcendent season and saying his name in a sit, or more specifically fade, the situation seems blasphemous entirely. He has delivered 11 straight weeks with a sack, which is insane, but we did finally see this streak come to an end against the 49ers this last week. Additionally, his production has been outpacing expectations. Based on his pressures and rate, I would see him at 10 sacks versus 13, so a bit of negative regressions seems in order at this point. Also, his production has come primarily as a pass-rusher and his tackle floor leaves a bit to be desired (38 combined tackles over 15 games). With a limited floor, if he is not able to deliver in the sack department, he becomes a little more risky of a play. This week against the Dolphins, he is trying to bring down Tua who is one of the least sacked QBs this season. The Dolphins seem able to stay in rhythm and get the ball out quickly consistently limiting pass rush upside for their opponents. Madubuike is still relevant because of his talent, but in the final week, be wary of his upside.

START: Khaleke Hudson, Washington Commanders, LB38

Khaleke Hudson has been an absolute tackling machine at any point this year when he has been giving the starting nod. While this is still a relatively small sample size at this point (226 snaps), he has been absolutely efficient at delivering. He has 43 tackles for an unbelievable 19.0% tackle efficiency! While he is limited in his big plays delivered over this time, his tackle production more than makes up for it, and their matchup against a hyper-efficient 49ers offense, should only offer up further opportunities for him to pile up the tackles, It is as simple as that here in Week 17.

SIT: Nick Bolton, Kansas City Chiefs, LB30

Nick Bolton is starting to experience the wonders of the Steve Spagnuolo LB rotation we have always feared. Now, the question is, is this from injury limitations? Performance? The play of others? A combination of this and more? Either way, Bolton is not playing 100% of snaps, he is closer to 90%. While that is still great, the 100% we came to expect and appreciate is seemingly gone. And since his return from injury over the last two weeks, Bolton has yet to log a play beyond just tackles. This severely limits the upside we have been able to account for with him and the Bengals as an opponent this week is not the matchup we thought we had in Week 1. And Browning seems to be turning back into a pumpkin after his game against the Steelers. A hamstrung Bengals offense and a limited Bolton don’t bode well for a great Week 17 performance.

START: Jordan Battle, Cincinnati Bengals, DB19 (S18)

On the other side of the defensive matchup in the Chiefs vs. Bengals, we have Jordan Battle. And since Jordan Battle stepped in for the injured Nick Scott in week 11, the lowest tackles production we have seen from Battle was 3, but every other game we saw a minimum of 6 tackles with 3 games at 9 or more tackles! His alignment has been very good too as he is getting at least 18 box snaps every game and more like 25+ box snaps per game. But the kicker for this week is actually Patrick Mahomes who has been uncharacteristically presenting more turnover-worthy plays this season and has the 5th most up to this point in the season. While this number is slightly inflated due to the higher number of pass-play runs, this is still a volume that Battle will be seeing all day in their matchup and offers him a very nice upside in a key week for us all.

SIT: Jordan Fuller, Los Angeles Rams, DB32 (S28)

Jordan Fuller is only a few years removed from being an IDP darling (in 2021 he piled up 106 total tackles!). He is currently pacing out for 93 total tackles this season (17 games played) so he is far from a disappointment. However, his recent utilization is a bit concerning. In 2 of his last 3 weeks, he has 7 and 5 box snaps and 2 of 3 games with 4 or fewer tackles as well. He is also a product of volume this season with a below-average 8.0% tackle efficiency and having to rely on a big play to save his week, while the big plays are few and far between. His matchup against the Giants does not help his case this week with their offense struggling and switching QBs. Tyrod Taylor might provide some jolt to the offense, but there is a reason he is a backup and this offense will likely struggle against a strong Rams unit, limited by the sheer volume that Fuller will have this week.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 16

Updated: December 20th 2023

 

Hello and welcome to all you first-round bye people and champions of the first round. With only two weeks left in the fantasy football playoffs, things are sure to be intense, stressful, and hopefully, in the end, very successful for you. So let’s find those IDPs we want in a lineup, and those, we might not, for week 16.

Week 15 Recap

DL:

Start: Greg Rousseau (1 solo, 1 assist, TFL, 0.5 sack, 2 QB hits) 👍 

Sit: Boye Mafe (1 solo, 1 PD) 👍

LB:

Start: Josey Jewell (7 solos, 2 assists) 👍 – Good tackle performance, nothing in the pass rush department though

Sit: David Mayo (Did not get the anticipated start) 👎

DB:

Start: Vonn Bell (1 solo, 1 assist) 👎

Sit: Trevon Moehrig (1 assist) 👍

Week 16 Starts & Sits

START: Jonathan Allen, Washington Commanders, DL42 (DT10)

Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne are the core of this line after Montez Sweat and Chase Young were shipped off at the trade deadline earlier this year. He has not let that slow him as he has been a strong contributor all season. This shows in his analytics so far this season, with his 15.5% win rate which is 7th among all interior defenders while also delivering 9.13% pressure rate, which is very impressive from an interior defender. While the Commanders have been known for their lack of offensive line play and sacks allowed, there is another team that is right there with them and it is the New York Jets, whom the Commanders happen to play! The Jets have allowed 63 sacks over the 14 games with the majority coming through the interior of that offensive line, meaning fire up Jonathan Allen this week.

SIT: Kayvon Thibadeaux, New York Giants, DL40 (ED31)

Kayvon Thibadeux has really delivered in his sophomore campaign with 13 total sacks already this season. However, his production has been a significant over production, based on the number of pressures he has produced. With only 37 pressures on the season, I would anticipate his sack total to be close to 6.5, not 13. And this has shown in some of his weekly production as well, with 4 games this season with zero pressures compiled while still getting at least 18 pass rush snaps in each of those games. His ability to disappear from games so far this year, combined with a matchup against an Eagles offensive line that has allowed some of the lowest sack conversion rate, Thibadeux is likely in for another one of those low output weeks.

START: Devin Lloyd, Jacksonville Jaguars, LB23

Devin Lloyd has taken a rough end to his rookie season where he lost starts and snaps to Chad Muma. Now, he has had a very strong sophomore season and the last 5 games of his have been amazing! 54 total tackles over the last 5 games with 32 coming in run defense and the other 22 in coverage. This amazing tackle floor will be reinforced with Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their strong usage of their backfield, specifically Rachaad White. White has 66 carries and 9 targets over the last 3 weeks and they will not slow down in their usage of the backfield, and Lloyd will be able to take advantage of this with his play-making.

SIT: Nicholas Morrow, Philadelphia Eagles, LB41

Nicholas Morrow seems to be the last linebacker standing in Philadelphia. Nakobe Dean lost to injury, Zach Cunningham injured, Christian Elliss cut, and now Shaq Leonard is the new guy alongside him. Nicholas Morrow is great at getting out on to the field and making sure things are squared away from an NFL perspective, but for his IDP production, he is very average. He is a career 10% tackle efficiency and is on that exact same track this season. He has one boom performance where he compiled 3 sacks in one game and with only 5 other pressures to show for outside of that one performance. Also, the utilization of more 3 safeties as Matt Patricia is the new defensive play caller will likely limit his ability to make plays in coverage as well. And for week 16, they get division rival, the New York Giants and Tommy DeVito. And the Giants’ offense has shown its own inefficiencies and it is shows in their 31st ranked 55.3 plays ran by the offense over the last 3 games. So for Morrow, 10% efficiency over 55 plays, doesn’t give us a great tackle floor to rely on this week.

START: Trenton Thompson, Pittsburgh Steelers, DB72 (S51)

Trenton Thompson has stepped in several times throughout the season as the backup safety. However, he will be asked to permanently step up with news of Damontae Kazee’s recent suspension. Thompson has done an admirable job while filling in those times this season. In the three games where has played 40+ snaps this season, he has delivered 9.5%, 10.34%, and 11.76% tackle efficiency. Most notably, in week 15, he took 32 of his 51 snaps in the box, too. While this is a small sample and we don’t want to take away too much, this combined with his former performances when given the volume, gives me confidence for week 16 where the Steelers take on the Bengals. The Bengals offer a very average matchup in terms of safety production for IDP scoring and tackles, but the biggest benefit might come from the play of the Steelers’ offense and its recent inability to sustain drives. And the uncertainty around Kenny Pickett only adds to this at this time.

SIT: Rayshawn Jenkins, Jacksonville Jaguars, DB17 (S17)

Rayshawn Jenkins is coming off a huge performance in week 1 of the fantasy playoffs, but this is not something we have been able to comfortably rely on him, even with some of the best box usage of any safety (2nd with 398 box snaps). He still comes in with a slightly below-average tackle efficiency for a safety, even given his ideal usage, at 8.95%. Jenkins has also under-delivered in splash plays beyond tackles. He recorded his first sack on his 6th pressure, which is about the expected rate. He also has 5 PDs and 2 interceptions on the season whic align with what he has done most seasons, so to consistently rely on more big plays is not likely. This week Jacksonville takes on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and they are allowing just 9 tackles to the safety position over the last 3 weeks, which leaves a very small pie from which Jenkins can pull from.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 14

Updated: December 6th 2023

This is it. This is our last push for the playoffs (hopefully you wonderful readers have already locked that up though!). But just in case you need a little help finding some decisions or considerations for your lineups this week, let’s dive into my thoughts for week 14.

Week 13 Recap

DL:

Start: Osa Odighizuwa (3 solos, 3 assists,Qb hit, TFL) 👍

Sit: Denico Autry (3 solos, 1assist, 1 sack, QB hit, FF, PD) 👎

LB:

Start: Jack Campbell (4 solos, 5 assists, 2 TFLs) 👍 – Only on 79% snaps, efficient, talent, but not locked in

Sit: Markquese Bell (4 solos, 4 assists) 👎

DB:

Start: Jordan Battle (4 solos, 3 assists, TFL, 1 sack, QB hit, PD) 👍

Sit: Richie Grant (1 solo, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 FF) 👎 – Big play made the day for him this week

Week 14 Starts & Sits

START: Samson Ebukam, Indianapolis Colts, DL38 (ED31)

7-5 for the Colts is a bit of a surprise with some of the injuries that they have had to overcome. What has been a contributing factor to these surprising results? The play of that defensive front is a big part of this. DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye for sure, but Samson Ebukam has been very good for this front. But especially good over his last 3 games. 4 sacks, but has a 16.45% pressure rate, which is 6 points higher than his 10.14% pressure rate for the entire season. Enter the Cincinnati Bengals with a 27% pressure rate allowed this season as well as a 15% sack conversion rate on those pressures. Pair that with the Bengals seemingly more willing to utilize their passing attack with backup Jake Browning under center, this should set up for a favorable matchup and a good volume of opportunities for Ebukam.

SIT: Chase Young, San Francisco 49ers, DL20 (ED18)

It seems like nothing can stop the San Francisco 49ers recently. While the offense looks great, the defense is doing its part, too. And the addition of Chase Young was a very solid move for this team. However, in his 4 games with the 49ers, it has been feast or famine. 2 sacks and 1 tackle are his 4 games total. His 14.19% pressure rate over the time would leave us to believe he is an ideal play against the Seahawks this week and their usually favorable matchup. However, last week they showed a changeup in their offense to mitigate a strong Cowboys pass rush. They went to a very quick passing attack with Geno Smith’s time to throw of 2.31 seconds, which was way down from his season average of 2.76 (which includes this most recent game). The offense was successful, they didn’t surrender a sack, and this doesn’t look great for the 49ers pass-rush. Especially Chase Young, who doesn’t seem to have a tackle floor either.

START: Mykal Walker, Pittsburgh Steelers, LB27

Mykal Walker has been a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers for three whole weeks now. And due to some unfortunate health in the linebacker room, Walker has seen his role continue to increase, as well. Elandon Robert’s most recent groin injury is just the latest news in this ongoing saga. With his increased time in Pittsburgh, we have seen his production rise each week as well (from 3 tackles to 5 to 11 this last week). While his overall numbers are average in terms of efficiency, he is getting a very favorable matchup for LB tackle production in the New England Patriots. Their offensive situation over the last 3 games has netted an average of 20 tackles to the LB position for the Patriots’ opponents. This should be an ideal game for Mykal Walker to deliver above-average efficiency and increased volume due to the injuries, which will lead to a very good week for Mykal.

SIT: Nicholas Morrow, Philadelphia Eagles, LB30

Nicholas Morrow has been involved in another linebacker room that has dealt with a litany of injuries this season. It has even seen Morrow go from a starter to a backup role, and back to the starter again. While no one will argue Morrow’s ability to be on the field, align a defense, and play his role, his IDP production has been one of mediocre value at times throughout his career. This season has shown to be similar with a 9.61% tackle efficiency, almost 4 points lower than the league average and closer to safety tackle efficiency. With a crucial week 14 matchup against their division rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, there is little concern as the last 3 weeks, the Cowboys’ opponents have only seen 15.3 tackles for the LB position. The inefficient play, combined with the less-than-favorable matchup, means Morrow is a fade for me.

START: Kyle Hamilton, Baltimore Ravens, DB34 (S26)

Kyle Hamilton has seen his IDP production shift a bit this year, as well as his alignment and utilization. Primarily deep safety, slot role, box safety, deep, and back to slot defender. And this has been his primary role now for the last three weeks taking over 40 snaps a week there. While his tackle production has been average at just under 5 a game during this period (that’s with a 1 tackle performance), we have seen him generate 5 pressures, 4 hurries, and a QB hit. He also has 2 PD’s to boot. The Rams matchup this week is less favorable for safeties overall in terms of tackle production, but Hamilton is more of a slot defender or box safety, which aren’t like your traditional safeties. Hamilton has shown a respectable tackle floor but his big-play upside is a great reason for him to deliver this week against the Los Angeles Rams.

SIT: Jalen Pitre, Houston Texans, DB36 (S28)

Jalen Pitre is less than 1 season removed from an outstanding 144-tackle performance. This season has seen him regress to the mean as he is on a 93-tackle pace over a 17-game span. His alignment this year is a bit down from last year as well with 43% of his snaps coming from the sweet spot. Even with his reduction in production, and shifted utilization, Pitre is still a relatively consistent IDP performer. What makes him less-than-ideal this week, is the matchup against the New York Jets. The Jets are providing league-low tackles to their opponents’ safeties at 9.6 per game, with the last 3 games averaging 6.0. That is an extremely small pie to divide up among others, let alone one’s self. Pitre is a pass for me in week 14

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 13

Updated: November 29th 2023

 

Welcome to week 13, our penultimate matchup before the playoffs! Let’s get those lineups ready again as we secure our first-round byes, or our spots in the playoff, or at the very least, play spoiler to those still in it!

Week 12 Recap

DL:

Start: Will Anderson Jr. (2 solos, 2 assists, TFL) 👎

Sit: Shaquil Barrett (3 solos, assist) 👍

LB:

Start: Ivan Pace Jr. (7 solos, 2 assists, sack, TFL, QB hit) 👍

Sit: Frankie Luvu (Solo, assist) 👎

DB:

Start: Jonathan Owens (8 solos, 4 assists, TFL, FR, Def TD) 👍

Sit: Jevon Holland (5 solos, INT, PD, Def TD) 👎

Week 13 Starts & Sits

START: Osa Odighizuwa, Dallas Cowboys, DL60 (DT18)

Osa Odighizuwa, he not only has a fun name to say, but he also has the production to get into our IDP lineups. This is especially true in week 13. Osa has had a great year in terms of his pass rush success. He has a pass-rush pressure rate of 13.65% and he has a pass-rush win rate of 24.25% on the season. These are outstanding numbers, however, they have not resulted fully in the sack numbers you’d expect. I’d expect to see him with close to 5 sacks versus the 3 he has produced year-to-date. Getting a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks should help with that this week. They are allowing pressures on 32% of all dropbacks while 15% of those are being converted into sacks. This is a strong matchup for Odighizuwa to add to his sack total this season.

SIT: Denico Autry, Tennessee Titans, DL40 (ED27)

Denico Autry has had a wonderful season. 8 sacks is a great season for most pass-rushers, but Autry is at that number through 11 games and obviously pushing for more. Autry has been an bit of an over-producer this season though, with those 8 sacks coming on 32 pressures. And as we looked at with Osa, we would expect his sack total to be closer to 5 sacks at this point. His pass-rush production numbers are solid, but not elite either that it would lead me to believe that he is a true outlier with 10.22% pass rush rate and a 15.0% pass rush win rate. This week, Autry gets a less than ideal matchup in the Indianapolis Colts who are allowing only a 23% pressure rate per dropback this season and only 7% of those pressures are converted into sacks. This is a week where Autry likely regresses back to the mean.

START: Jack Campbell, Detroit Lions, LB41

Jack Campbell has been an IDP rookie darling of mine since the draft cycles this off-season. Now, due to an unfortunate injury, he might get the full-time role I was hoping he’d have secured by this point. Either way, Campbell has been quietly delivering a respectable baseline for IDP production. He has 49 tackles at a 12.82% efficiency. This is very average, but for a first year player, that is a good baseline to be achieving already. He has added a handful of splash plays, too. Week 13 is a good matchup as well, heading to New Orleans Jack Campbell is facing a Saints offense that is providing an average of 19.2 tackles per game to the linebacker position. Even at an even split with Derrick Barnes, that is still likely to yield an 8 – 10 tackle floor for them and Campbell is should easily take advantage this week.

SIT: Markquese Bell, Dallas Cowboys, LB36

Markquese Bell has stepped up in his role with the injuries and uncertainty at linebacker this year for the Cowboys. Starting in week 6 we have seen snap percentages of 53%, 73%, 94%, 39%, 85%, and 77%. The numbers have been relatively consistent, but Rashaan Evans has slowly been seeing his integration and snaps increasing as well, even if smaller. But that reduction is coming at the extent of someone else at times, and it seems to be Bell. It also doesn’t help that they already have an established safety group of three as well in Kearse, Wilson, and Malik Hooker that limits Bell’s ability to stay on the field. Pair the snap count concerns with the Seattle Seahawks matchup this weekend in a team that is only yielding 14.7 tackles per game to the linebabcker position, I do not like Bell’s range of outcomes this week.

START: Jordan Battle, Cincinnati Bengals, DB32 (S28)

Rookie Jordan Battle is getting his opportunity this season due to injuries, but he has gone ahead and made the most of that. Filling in early two weeks ago and getting his frist fultime starting game, Battle quickly made the most of it with 19 total tackles. He projected as a strong tackling safety during the NFL draft process but has shown he can deliver that on the NFL field. While this is a small sample size, we love the production, but we also love the utilization. 58.26% of his snaps these last two weeks have come from the sweet spot alignments but his box utilization saw a jump from 18 snaps to 31 once after a week of preparing the defense with Battle known as the starter. Again, small sample sizes, but we are at the end of the season and we cannot wait several weeks to figure out some of these new roles and opportunities. But we can react to the information we have seen the teams already do. Battle should be a strong start while he maintains this role.

SIT: Richie Grant, Atlanta Falcons, DB25 (S23)

Richie Grants was a defensive back I had a lot of belief in coming into this season. Unfortunately, that has not been the case for his third season in the NFL. It has shown not only in his reduction in IDP production, but some of his worst PFF grades, especially is his overall defense and coverage grades. Most concerning though, is the last two weeks he has dipped below 100% snap percentage and this last week it was down to 75%! Up to this point, he has delivered slightly above average tackle efficiency, but if he isn’t producing outlier numbers and his utilization is going to drop, his IDP production becomes concerning on a week-to-week basis. Enter the New York Jets for this week, they are allowing the lowest numbers of tackles to opposing safeties at 9.9 per game.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 12

Updated: November 23rd 2023

 

The goods were good… the bads were misses. With Thanksgiving upon us this week, let’s be thankful for our family, friends, and hopefully some great lineups this weekend!

Week 11 Recap

DL:

Start: Kyle Van Noy (2 solos, 1 TFLs, 1 QB hit. 1 sack) 👍

Sit: Montez Sweat (1 solo, 1 assist, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit, 1 sack) 👎

LB:

Start: Elandon Roberts (11 solos, 4 assists, 2 TFLs) 👍 – Great week AND 100% snap count!

Sit: De’Vondre Campbell (6 solos, 1 assists, 1 TFL) 👎 

DB:

Start: Kevin Byard (4 solos, 1 assist, TFL, 2 PDs) 👍

Sit: Jalen Pitre (4 solos, 2 assists, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit) 👎

Week 12 Starts & Sits

START: Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans, DL35 (ED28)

Will Anderson may not have the gaudy sack numbers so far this rookie campaign. He has three sacks through his first 10 games 32 tackles. But he has made his impact felt in games, look further than week 11 where he recorded a sack but also caused the pressure/hurry on the final play of the game that led to the incompletion on 4th down and sealed the Texans’ victory. He has been winning in his pass rush sets 22.0% of the time (27th among edge rushers) and has a 13.1% pass pressure rate. While this hasn’t create gaudy stats, this week’s matchup against the Jaguars is a plus matchup. Their pressure rate allowed is slightly above average at 25%, but the pressures they do allow are converted into sacks at the third highest rate at 19%. For a player who is winning his matchups consistently, this should be an ideal week for him to capitalize.

SIT: Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DL38 (ED30)

Shaquil Barrett has had a very nice season bouncing back from his Achilles injury. Through his 10 games this year he has delivered 4 sacks and 34 total tackles this season. His overall success in his pass rush sets though has not been as strong at a 14.9% rate. It is above average but not great, but he has delivered a strong 13.1% pass rush pressure rate. This split has given us some solid production, but the matchup this week against the Indianapolis Colts is not the best one if Barrett can’t win his matchups consistently. The Colts have the 5th lowest pressure rate allowed at 23% and the 3rd lowest conversion rate of those pressures into sacks at 8%. Barrett just hasn’t won enough and consistently in his sets to feel good about this week.

START: Ivan Pace, Minnesota Vikings, LB31

Ivan Pace was a draft darling for me, but going undrafted put a damper on that for sure. However, landing in Minnesota gave me hope and he showed up early in the season but saw those quickly fade as well. However, the injury to Jordan Hicks has reignited his opportunity and this week should be a week that continues to showcase Pace. In his last two games as a starter and seeing 50+ snaps he has compiled 15 total tackles (13.5% tackle efficiency) and a forced fumble. This week he gets the Chicago Bears whose tackles allowed to LBs this season have not been ideal, but with the return of Justin Fields, it has seen a nice jump up. And what better way to try and highlight Pace’s ability in a plus matchup against the Bears?

SIT: Frankie Luvu, Carolina Panthers, LB29

Frankie Luvu was an amazing revelation last season for IDP. He did it with a great floor in terms of tackle production (103 combined) but had the boosted upside of his pass rush (7 sacks). This year started off down that same exact path with 12 tackles and 4 sacks over just the first two weeks. Since then? 1 sack and 67 tackles. He has done a wonderful maintaining that tackle production and efficiency this year, however, outside of those first two weeks he has only produced 1 sack and this lack of pass-rush production aligns pretty closely with his switch to the Mike LB after seeing Shaq Thompson get injured. But isn’t his strong tackle floor enough to keep him in the top 30 LBs this week? In most cases, yes, but facing the Titans this week, they have one of the lower tackle productions allowed to the LB position which lowers Luvu’s floor overall. And if his pass rush upside is limited to none, and his tackle floor reduced, he is a fade for me this week.

START: Jonathan Owens, Green Bay Packers, DB31 (S25)

Jonathan Owens got a chance to be a starter in week 8 of this season, but it is how he has been utilized over these last three weeks and the results that have me excited for this week 12 matchup. Over the last three weeks, Owens has seen his sweet spot alignment jump to 53.47%! He has also piled up 20 combined tackles for 6.3 tackles per game. There is no reason for this usage and alignment to change this week which gives us great confidence in his utilization. Also, enter the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving which is a favorable matchup for their opponents’ safeties, like a top 10 favorable matchup! Owens is a very comfortable play this week who can deliver a great tackle floor.

SIT: Jevon Holland, Miami Dolphins, DB29 (S23)

Jevon Holland has had a very consistent year so for for IDP. Delivering almost 7 total tackles a game with 62 tackles over his 9 games this season. His utilization is a respectable 46.6% from the sweet spot as well, which is good, but not great. Holland has been able to be IDP relevant with average utilization though. However, one thing that can be killer to a player’s IDP production, is an opponent that cannot sustain drives or push the ball down field where safeties have an opportunity to make more plays. This week, Holland gets the Jets and newly minted starting QB, Tim Boyle. Holland is still likely to deliver some base value due to his ability, but his overall ceiling is drastically lowered and becomes an unfavorable play for me this Friday.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 9

Updated: November 2nd 2023

 

Week 8 we had every team playing again and lots of options. We looked good and the efficiencies checked out for our starts. For our sits, the process didn’t check out for on Holcomb and Grant. But holy cow, Bryce Huff needs to get a bit more run (or a competing team should have tried to nab him at the deadline) because this man is on fire this year. Might be worth a stash on your dynasty roster if he is available and you have the spot.

Week 8 Recap

DL:

Start: Bryce Huff (2 solos, 3 assists, 1 sack, TFL, QB hit) 👍 – Only on 37% snaps!?!

Sit: Jonathan Allen (1 assist, 2 QB hits) 👍

LB:

Start: Denzel Perryman (6 solos, 3 assists, TFL, QB hit, 0.5 sacks) 👍 – Only on 48% snaps!?!

Sit: Cole Holcomb (7 solos, 4 assists, FR) 👎 

DB:

Start: Jamal Adams (5 solos, 3 assists, TFL, PD) 👍

Sit: Richie Grant (6 solos, 3 assists, PD) 👎

Week 9 Starts & Sits

START: JeDeveon Clowney, Baltimore Ravens, DL46 (ED35)

Clowney has had a bit of a career flip here in his season with the Ravens. A defender once known for his strength in run defense and ability to make tackle plays in the backfield is now really showing some chops as a pass rusher. He is pacing out for 72+ pressures this season, his best since 64 in 2017. But he is going to do this on 200 fewer snaps. His efficiency is up and he is delivering strong pass-rush metrics in other spots, too. He is top 25 in the NFL in terms of his win rate at 22.8% this season. The one downside to Clowney’s season is his tackle floor has dropped to its lowest of his career as he is pacing out to have 29 total tackles this season. This week, Clowney gets the Seahawks whose offensive line has been a line that has allowed a 30% pressure rate on the season. This is one of the bottoms in terms of pressures allowed but only 11% sack conversion, one of the better marks this season. So for Clowney, he has been successful in creating pressures and should realize that this week, but his ability to convert a sack is good enough that he will have success this week, too, making him a viable starting option this week.

SIT: Jonathan Greenard, Houston Texans, DL27 (ED21)

Jonathan Greenard had an amazing week last week with 7 pressures and 3 sacks against the Panthers! He has delivered some solid metrics to go along with these recent eye-popping stats. He has a 19.1% win rate in pass rush sets and an 11% pash rush pressure rate. However, he has overproduced a bit on his sack production, where I would expect to see him closer to 3.5 sacks vs. the 7 he has. The potential negative regression in his sack production while coming into a matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week, has me a little concerned about Greenard being a strong play this week. Tampa has the third-lowest pressure rate allowed and the third-lowest sack conversion rate, too.

START: Blake Cashman, Houston Texans, LB26

Blake Cashman has been absolute money once stepping into the full-time role in this Demeco Ryans’ Houston Texans defense. Since getting the full-time role he has delivered a solid 13.42% tackle efficiency. The real kicker on top of that is the splash play he has added to that strong tackle floor. 6 TFL’s, 3 QB hits, 1 sack, and 2 PDs. With the strong tackle production and the addition of the big play upside, Bashman is firmly cemented as an LB2. This week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it is a bottom-half matchup scoring-wise, but Cashman is the primary LB in this offense has the best likelihood of absorbing the bulk of the LB scoring this week.

SIT: Kaden Elliss, Atlanta Falcons, LB29

It pains me to say to sit Kaden Elliss, he was a flag plant of mine and someone I was very excited about this season. Now, he hasn’t been a complete busy by any stretch of the imagination either. He is wearing the green dot for the Falcons and he is seeing nearly 100% of all snaps this season. However, is tackle efficiency is below average at 10.9%. While this is not ideal, we can normally work with this when there is upside in other aspects of their game. And with Kaden Elliss with thought we might have that with his pass-rush upside from his time with Saints and his DC Ryan Nielsen. Elliss is actually on pace to surpass his pass rush opportunities from last year by 21 chances while playing well over 400 snaps more than last year. This lower ceiling, plus a matchup against rookie QB Jaren Hall and the Vikings, with an offense that is not likely to be very efficient week 1 with this big change, I am expecting a lower set of opportunities for Elliss this week.

START: Keanu Neal, Pittsburgh Steelers, DB74 (S52)

Minkah Fitzpatrick is out and Keanu Neal was one of the biggest benefactors last week when Fitzpatrick was out due to injury. This gave him the opportunity to see his best utilization in the box and the slot alignments. What did that do for him in terms of his production? His best tackle production of the season with 7 solo tackles. And Minkah is officially out for the Thursday night matchup against the Titans and we should be ready to expect another solid night from Keanu Neal against an offense that maybe has some renewed juice with Will Levis behind center.

SIT: Trevon Moehrig, Las Vegas Raiders, DB39 (S30)

Trevon Moehrig had a wonderful week 8 with 10 total tackles for our IDP lineups. It did not hurt that he also had played all 86 snaps in that game! But that is still a very good 11.1% tackle efficiency, which we would be more than happy to have from a DB. He has also back-to-back weeks of 30 box snaps as well. These are both positive things for IDP production, however, prior to this week, his tackle efficiency sat at 7.5%, a good step below average tackle efficiency for DBs. In a matchup against a struggling New York Giants offense (especially if Daniel Jones sits), I would expect limited upside from most Raiders IDPs, but especially those that play further off the line, like Moehrig.

 

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