IDP Start/Sit: Week 13

Updated: November 29th 2023

 

Welcome to week 13, our penultimate matchup before the playoffs! Let’s get those lineups ready again as we secure our first-round byes, or our spots in the playoff, or at the very least, play spoiler to those still in it!

Week 12 Recap

DL:

Start: Will Anderson Jr. (2 solos, 2 assists, TFL) 👎

Sit: Shaquil Barrett (3 solos, assist) 👍

LB:

Start: Ivan Pace Jr. (7 solos, 2 assists, sack, TFL, QB hit) 👍

Sit: Frankie Luvu (Solo, assist) 👎

DB:

Start: Jonathan Owens (8 solos, 4 assists, TFL, FR, Def TD) 👍

Sit: Jevon Holland (5 solos, INT, PD, Def TD) 👎

Week 13 Starts & Sits

START: Osa Odighizuwa, Dallas Cowboys, DL60 (DT18)

Osa Odighizuwa, he not only has a fun name to say, but he also has the production to get into our IDP lineups. This is especially true in week 13. Osa has had a great year in terms of his pass rush success. He has a pass-rush pressure rate of 13.65% and he has a pass-rush win rate of 24.25% on the season. These are outstanding numbers, however, they have not resulted fully in the sack numbers you’d expect. I’d expect to see him with close to 5 sacks versus the 3 he has produced year-to-date. Getting a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks should help with that this week. They are allowing pressures on 32% of all dropbacks while 15% of those are being converted into sacks. This is a strong matchup for Odighizuwa to add to his sack total this season.

SIT: Denico Autry, Tennessee Titans, DL40 (ED27)

Denico Autry has had a wonderful season. 8 sacks is a great season for most pass-rushers, but Autry is at that number through 11 games and obviously pushing for more. Autry has been an bit of an over-producer this season though, with those 8 sacks coming on 32 pressures. And as we looked at with Osa, we would expect his sack total to be closer to 5 sacks at this point. His pass-rush production numbers are solid, but not elite either that it would lead me to believe that he is a true outlier with 10.22% pass rush rate and a 15.0% pass rush win rate. This week, Autry gets a less than ideal matchup in the Indianapolis Colts who are allowing only a 23% pressure rate per dropback this season and only 7% of those pressures are converted into sacks. This is a week where Autry likely regresses back to the mean.

START: Jack Campbell, Detroit Lions, LB41

Jack Campbell has been an IDP rookie darling of mine since the draft cycles this off-season. Now, due to an unfortunate injury, he might get the full-time role I was hoping he’d have secured by this point. Either way, Campbell has been quietly delivering a respectable baseline for IDP production. He has 49 tackles at a 12.82% efficiency. This is very average, but for a first year player, that is a good baseline to be achieving already. He has added a handful of splash plays, too. Week 13 is a good matchup as well, heading to New Orleans Jack Campbell is facing a Saints offense that is providing an average of 19.2 tackles per game to the linebacker position. Even at an even split with Derrick Barnes, that is still likely to yield an 8 – 10 tackle floor for them and Campbell is should easily take advantage this week.

SIT: Markquese Bell, Dallas Cowboys, LB36

Markquese Bell has stepped up in his role with the injuries and uncertainty at linebacker this year for the Cowboys. Starting in week 6 we have seen snap percentages of 53%, 73%, 94%, 39%, 85%, and 77%. The numbers have been relatively consistent, but Rashaan Evans has slowly been seeing his integration and snaps increasing as well, even if smaller. But that reduction is coming at the extent of someone else at times, and it seems to be Bell. It also doesn’t help that they already have an established safety group of three as well in Kearse, Wilson, and Malik Hooker that limits Bell’s ability to stay on the field. Pair the snap count concerns with the Seattle Seahawks matchup this weekend in a team that is only yielding 14.7 tackles per game to the linebabcker position, I do not like Bell’s range of outcomes this week.

START: Jordan Battle, Cincinnati Bengals, DB32 (S28)

Rookie Jordan Battle is getting his opportunity this season due to injuries, but he has gone ahead and made the most of that. Filling in early two weeks ago and getting his frist fultime starting game, Battle quickly made the most of it with 19 total tackles. He projected as a strong tackling safety during the NFL draft process but has shown he can deliver that on the NFL field. While this is a small sample size, we love the production, but we also love the utilization. 58.26% of his snaps these last two weeks have come from the sweet spot alignments but his box utilization saw a jump from 18 snaps to 31 once after a week of preparing the defense with Battle known as the starter. Again, small sample sizes, but we are at the end of the season and we cannot wait several weeks to figure out some of these new roles and opportunities. But we can react to the information we have seen the teams already do. Battle should be a strong start while he maintains this role.

SIT: Richie Grant, Atlanta Falcons, DB25 (S23)

Richie Grants was a defensive back I had a lot of belief in coming into this season. Unfortunately, that has not been the case for his third season in the NFL. It has shown not only in his reduction in IDP production, but some of his worst PFF grades, especially is his overall defense and coverage grades. Most concerning though, is the last two weeks he has dipped below 100% snap percentage and this last week it was down to 75%! Up to this point, he has delivered slightly above average tackle efficiency, but if he isn’t producing outlier numbers and his utilization is going to drop, his IDP production becomes concerning on a week-to-week basis. Enter the New York Jets for this week, they are allowing the lowest numbers of tackles to opposing safeties at 9.9 per game.

 

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More Analysis by Jake

IDP Sit/Start: Week 11

Updated: November 17th 2022

Week 11? That just feels weird to say! We are a few short weeks away from most fantasy football playoffs and hopefully, you are all either locked in for the playoffs or still alive in the hunt for it. Regardless, let’s try and get your IDP lineups set the best and maybe find some value for our rosters too!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show for them are what is the ECR over from Fantasy Pros for this week.

WEEK 10 RECAP
DL:
Start: Jeffery Simmons (3 solos, 1 assist, PD. Not bad for a non-sack game!)
Start: Josh Paschal (injured during the game, got a zero, played 17 snaps)

Sit: Uchenna Nwosu (1 assist. This isn’t a sell for the ROS, just wasn’t a good matchup)


LB:

Start: Blake Martinez / Luke Masterson (Masterson stats: 2 solos, 4 assists, TFL, 72% snaps. Not a great week but could have some value as an LB3/4 moving forward)

Start: Willie Gay Jr. (6 solos, 2 assists, sack, QB hit, PD)

Sit: Bobby Okereke (6 solos, 3 assists, PD. Bobby got 100% snaps with Leonard not suiting up.)

 

DB:
Start: Duron Harmon (2 solos, 2 assists)

Start: Jalen Ramsey (5 solos, assist)

Sit: Justin Simmons (Was inactive for the game late in the week)

 

START: Alex HighsmithPittsburgh Steelers, DL33

Alex Highsmith has been more of a volume play this season, delivering average numbers. 68.8 PFF pass-rush grade on the season, a 7.5% pressure rate over his last 3 games, but continues to see high snap numbers every week, 87% for the entire season! Last week, Highsmith had a strong week last week (2 sacks, 5 total tackles, QB hit) and we are not just chasing the points here. Highsmith gets a favorable matchup with the Bengals who are allowing a 24% pressure rate and a 21% sack conversion rate! These numbers are slightly inflated from week 1 (7 sacks) and week 2 (6 sacks), but the Bengals are still allowing 2.7 sacks per game since then. Along with Highsmith’s consistent effort and favorable matchup, TJ Watt is supposed to be back into action which should only allow Highsmith to operate with less attention and give him a better chance to deliver overall IDP production for us. He should be considered at a solid DL2 option this week.

START: Denico AutryTennessee Titans, DL34

Denico Autry has capitalized on injuries to his teammates and his increased role. He has delivered a whopping 23 pressures over the last 3 games along with his snap counts jumping up in week 9 (76 snaps) and week 10 (52 snaps), his two highest snap counts of the year so far. But his success is not just recent either, he has a 13.7% pressure rate on the year and a very good PFF pass-rush grade of 76.7. This week he gets the Green Bay Packers who are middle of the “pack” (dad joke achieved!) with their lower pressure rate at 22% but higher sack conversion rate at 18%. The Packers have begun to shift up their passing attack the last few weeks too which bodes well for the Titan’s pass rush. Rodgers has seen his time to throw be the highest 3 weeks out of their last 4. And his last two weeks Rodgers’ Average Depth of Target (ADOT) is the highest it’s been all season, by over a full yard from his previous high. These longer throws and longer time-to-throw give Autry a better chance to get home for some big plays this week. Autry should be a strong DL2 play this week.

SIT: Khalil Mack, Los Angeles Chargers, DL20

Khalil Mack has struggled to make a consistent impact for the Chargers defense recently outside of his big strip of the ball from Drake London against the Falcons. Khalil has managed only 3 pressures over the past three weeks, while maintaining a strong snap count. The IDP production in the run game that prime Mack would deliver is a ghost of its former self. He has only topped 3 combined tackles twice in his 9 full games this season. This week Mack gets the Kansas City Chiefs who have the lowest sack conversion rate in the NFL at 4%. This is due in large part to the play of Patrick Mahomes and his pocket presence and escapability, but this severely limits Macks already low upside. Play Mack feels like you are playing him based solely on past production and I wouldn’t consider him more than a low-end DL3 for this week.

START: Fankie LuvuCarolina Panthers, LB27

Frankie got back to IDP prominence last week with a big game! The big takeaway though is Frankie is back to 100% snap share alongside Shaq Thompson. This 2-LB look is what we want to watch and see if this really is the case for the rest of the season. This week, Frankie gets the Ravens and this is a plus matchup for him. The Ravens run the most plays per game in the NFL at 69.7 plays and the teams that have found success at slowing down the Ravens’ offense has been pressure/blitzing. Frankie has seen consistent pass-rush snaps and has been successful with a 70.3 PFF pass-rush grade. I anticipate this is how the Panthers will try to slow him down and Luvu will be a part of this. My biggest concern is Luvu does have 16 missed tackles on the season and getting after Lamar who is one of the most elusive runners in the NFL, might mean some missed opportunities too. But I would fire up Luvu as a high-end LB2 this week.

START: Jamin DavisWashington Commanders, LB32

This pick of Jamin Davis feels like the least “sexy” pick of a start that I have ever made. Jamin Davis was a first-round talent that hasn’t quite fully delivered or been able to climb past Cole Holcomb on the Commanders’ depth chart. With Holcomb out, however, Davis finds himself with 100% snap share now and Holcomb looks unlikely to play this week (he was a “Did Not Practice”, DNP, this Wednesday). His matchup against Houston this week finds him a run-heavy situation where Dameon Pierce has been seeing plenty of work with 15+ rushes the last 5 weeks, and 3 of those at 20+ even with 4 of those being losses and negative game scripts. Davis doesn’t feel like a strong play rest of the season, but for this week he is a solid LB2.

SIT: Zaven Collins, Arizona Cardinals, LB21

I am a huge Zaven Collins fan myself (NFL and IDP) but this week, I am struggling to see him as an LB2 this week even as a true 3-down LB with 100% snap share. However, not all snaps are created equal and Zaven is starting to get a small dose of the “Micah Parsons experience” and seeing more snaps from the DL position. Last week was 36% of his snaps at DL and week 8 was 31%. During those weeks he saw his lowest tackle production both weeks with 4 combined tackles in each of them. But if he is lining up at DL and taking pass-rush snaps, doesn’t he have more big play upside then? While that is a possibility, the matchup this week against San Francisco is less than ideal. They have the lowest pressure rate in the NFL and 7th best sack conversion rate allowed. I would steer away from Zaven unless you really need him in an LB3/4 spot due to his volume, but if you can afford to bench him for a week, I’d do it.

START: Dane BeltonNew York Giants, DB77

Dane Belton came into the season with some real promise as a rookie, but Belton experienced a broken collarbone, and Julian Love and Xavier McKinney ran with the starting safety jobs. In a strange turn of events, Xavier McKinney broke his hand and ended up on IR and Belton got the chance. The real surprise was Belton taking over the bulk of the “sweet spot” snaps (Box, DL, or Slot). He had 67% of them this last week. This only turned out to be 4 combined tackles, but with snap alignments like this, he could be a late-season steal off your waiver wire. This may only be for the next few weeks, but during that time Belton should be a high-end DB3 to maybe even a low-end DB2.

START: Tyrann MathieuNew Orleans Saints, DB26

Tyrann Mathieu has been one of the few IDPs that have been able to play every snap so far this season, which is impressive in its own rights. This last week changed we saw a heavy shift for Tyrann though with Pete Werner out there was a heavy shift to have Mathieu in the box. He saw 76% of his snaps in the “sweet spot”!! This is an extreme amount for any safety and as such, with Werner likely out again this week, we need to fire up Mathieu against the LA Rams. This usage led to his highest tackle output of the season and playing the Rams will lend to some strong opportunities for big-play upside as well. Tyrann is looking like a DB1 this week and smash start!!

SIT: Kyle Dugger, New England Patriots, DB27

Kyle Dugger had an amazing 2021 for IDP production and did so with strong efficiency numbers on lower snap numbers than other IDP producers around him. He had a strong tackle efficiency of 11.9% last year but this year he has seen a dip of almost 2 points down to 9.3%. The biggest concern though is he is still at a limited snap count though as well as battling injuries this year. With a heavy rotation at the safety spot for the Patriots between Dugger, Phillips, Peppers, and McCourty, and the return from his most recent ankle injury, Dugger needs to stay on our benches until he proves consistent production.

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