The Watch List: 2018 Bowl Game Previews, Part III
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Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. Check back throughout bowl season as The Watch List will preview every game and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year.
First Responder Bowl, Boston College (7-5) vs Boise State (10-3), Wed 12/26 at 1:30pm on ESPN:
- Draft Eligible Player to Watch: Brett Rypien, QB, Boise State
- Stop me if you’ve heard this before… the 2019 quarterback class is one of the weakest in the last decade. Because of that position scarcity, mediocre quarterbacks will find their draft stock waxing. Rypien is better than mediocre so it’s inevitable that he’s overdrafted. When I watched him in the preseason, I came away with a positive impression but was not blown away. He’s been a four-year starter for a successful Boise State team (although he lost some starter’s snaps in 2017). He is average in size (6020/202) but has a strong enough arm. In my notes I questioned his touch near the end zone and his ability to feel the blindside rush. Compared to 2017, Rypien improved his rate stats and ended with a very good 3,705-30-7 line. His 2018 performance was enough to earn him MWC Offensive Player of the Year honors. If I had to guess right now, I would say that Rypien gets drafted on Day Two which makes him a possible target for you in your 2019 rookie drafts.
- My Pick: Boise State, -3
- Is it possible that Boston College would have a better shot in this one if star RB AJ Dillon sat out due to his lingering injuries? That might sound crazy but it might be true because the strength of Boise’s defense is against the run (ranked 22nd). Boston College QB Anthony Brown has shown some flashes in the games I’ve watched but Rypien is the far better signal caller. Expect the defense to keep it low scoring (the last five Boise State games have gone under) and for Rypien to manage the game and milk the Broncos time of possession advantage.
Quick Lane Bowl, Minnesota (6-6) vs Georgia Tech (7-5), Wed 12/26 at 5:15pm on ESPN:
- Draft Eligible Player to Watch: Tyler Johnson, WR, Minnesota
- I’ve had Tyler Johnson on my watch list for awhile now but I unfortunately haven’t had a chance to dive in. Despite being a Big Ten apologist, I think I went the entire regular season without watching a snap of the Gophers. Johnson ranked second in the conference with 1,112 yards and added 10 TDs. His 74 receptions was more than double his output in 2017 which is a sign of positive progression. I watched two of Johnson’s game from 2017 and was disappointed. He predominantly lines up outside but I don’t think he’ll have the size or strength to do so in the NFL. His hands were inconsistent (too many drops, too often let the ball get into his body) and he did not succeed enough in contested situations. I haven’t seen anything definitive about whether Johnson will declare early (he probably will) but I think he’d be better served from another season at Minnesota.
- My Pick: Georgia Tech, -5.5
- This is one of the bigger numbers we’ve seen so far. I’ll lean towards Georgia Tech solely because of the novelty of their offense. Minnesota has more time to prepare than for a regular season game but even if they slow the Yellow Jackets’ rushing attack they will still control the game and put up points. Tech leads the FBS in rushing yards per game (335.0) by a whopping margin (38.7 yards per game more than 2nd ranked Army). Minnesota’s rush defense is a middling 76th best. Even though they lost RB KirVonte Benson early in the year, Georgia Tech still managed to finish with seven rushers over 200 yards each. Tech will roll.
Cheez-It Bowl, TCU (6-6) vs Cal (7-5), Wed 12/26 at 9:00pm on ESPN:
- Draft Eligible Player to Watch: Ben Banogu, DE, TCU
- Banogu is a former transfer from Louisiana-Monroe who joined TCU in 2017 and factored in immediately. His 2017 and 2018 lines are remarkably similar: 55-16.5-8.5 and 52-17.0-7.5. Banogu is well built as listed 6040/249 but I fear those numbers may be inflated. When I watched his tape against Oklahoma from this season he looked slight. Granted, my exposure was limited to that one game against a team with a good offensive line, but in that film he lacked the play strength and power moves to make an impact at the next level. When he does impact the play it’s because of his raw speed rather than technique or strength. I also noticed two missed tackles and a play where he lost contain which led to a touchdown. My initial gut reaction is that Banogu is somebody who will be overdrafted based on production and measureables but struggle to find a role as anything but a situational speed rusher.
- My Pick: Cal, +2
- Blah. I’m not sure about other college football fans but I am just finding it impossible to get excited about this one. Vegas felt the same because the game opened even. Since then it’s moved towards TCU being the favorite even though they are 4-8 ATS. Cal isn’t much better (6-5-1) but OddsShark.com has them winning by nearly seven. This looks to be a game where casual fans are taking TCU for the recent name recognition and you can get a bargain with Cal at +2.
Independence Bowl, Temple (8-4) vs Duke (7-5), Thur 12/27 at 1:30pm on ESPN:
- Draft Eligible Player to Watch: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
- Jones is one of the more polarizing quarterback prospects in the weak 2019 class. I started the season with Jones as my QB2 (behind Herbert) but would probably bump him down a bit if I were ranking today (at least behind Haskins too). Jones has a lot to improve upon, namely his touch and accuracy, but he has physical tools that others don’t. He has good size at 6050/220, is a productive runner (16 career rushing TDs) and throws well on the run. Unfortunately, Jones has been battling injuries and his status for this one is up in the air. He showed immense toughness by coming back from an in-season broken clavicle so I would not count him out. If he does not play, keep an eye on the status of Temple RB Ryquell Armstead. He’s also banged up and may not play. If he does, you could get a glimpse of an interesting prospect. If the name sounds familiar it’s because he rushed for four scores against Boston College and another six against Houston.
- My Pick: Duke, +3.5
- With both teams missing key offensive pieces, I’ll take the points. Duke is better than Temple when it comes to turnovers and penalties which could be the edge in a game I expect to be pretty boring and low scoring. Duke is 5-0 ATS this season when receiving points so this one feels like a safe, but small, bet.
Pinstripe Bowl, Wisconsin (7-5) vs Miami (7-5), Thur 12/27 at 5:15pm on ESPN:
- Draft Eligible Player to Watch: Jaquan Johnson, S, Miami
- Picking a draft eligible player was tough for this one because both teams have so many guys who will get drafted who casual fans just won’t pay attention to. Wisconsin could have four offensive linemen drafted in the first 100 picks and the same could be said for Miami’s defense. I settled on Johnson because he’s somebody I have mentioned in the past and have some familiarity with. Johnson’s stats decreased this season due to missing time with a hamstring injury but he was still productive and led the team in tackles (79). He also has 7 career INTs and a combined 9 forced and recovered fumbles. He’s listed at 5110/190 which is a bit small for a physical box safety. In the last three draft classes, only one safety (Justin Evans, 198) was drafted in the first three rounds at less than 200lbs. I watched Johnson’s tape against Boston College and he definitely profiles more as a strong safety than a free safety. He frequently lines up near the line of scrimmage or over a slot receiver and rarely in deep coverage. He’s good in run support with no qualms about flowing to the ball carrier despite his smaller frame. Johnson has first round potential so keep an eye on him in this one against the run-first Badgers.
- My Pick: Wisconsin, +3.5
- These two teams matched up less than a year ago in the Orange Bowl. That one went Wisconsin’s way with a final of 34-24. I see a similar outcome for the 2018 rendition. The key will be Wisconsin’s rushing attack with RB Jonathan Taylor and that brick-wall offensive line. Miami’s 24th ranked rushing defense allows just 127.3 yards so something’s gotta give and I expect it’ll be them. I’ve been hard on Miami since their undefeated run to start 2017 so I admit this pick may be jaded. I would take the Badgers on the moneyline so the 3.5 is just gravy.
Texas Bowl, Baylor (6-6) vs Vanderbilt (6-6), Thur 12/27 at 9:00pm on ESPN:
- Draft Eligible Player to Watch: Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor
- Mims will be an interesting prospect for 2019 because he has an excellent combination of size and speed. The question will be whether his strength and technique can improve enough in the offseason to make him the complete package at receiver. Mims is listed at 6030/208 and is a former track star in high school. I found a high school track stat site that list listed Mims’ personal best in the 100-meter dash as 10.88 seconds. That would equate to 4.01 seconds for a 40-yard dash. Certainly the races aren’t the same and you can’t just apply that simple math but my point is that this dude is quick. I’d love to see even bigger production from Mims (110 receptions, 1,786 yards and 16 TDs over the last two seasons) but the numbers are good enough. I watched his 2017 tape against Oklahoma and I came away impressed. He showed an ability to hands-catch the ball away from his body, excellent body control and leaping ability. Mims alone might turn this game into a must-watch for me.
- My Pick: Baylor, +4.5
- The safest bet in this one might actually be the under because both teams have gone under in their last three. When I’m stuck between two medicore teams, I’ll usually lean towards the better offense. Baylor leads Vandy in most offensive categories, most importantly: points and time of possession. Thursday would be a good time to plan some time with the family because you can record the game and fast forward to Baylor’s offensive possessions for some Mims exposure.
Music City Bowl, Auburn (7-5) vs Purdue (6-6), Fri 12/28 at 1:30pm on ESPN:
- Draft Eligible Player to Watch: Jarrett Stidham, QB, Auburn
- Stidham certainly won’t be the best pro prospect on the field in this one but his is an interesting story. I’ve previously compared Stidham to Alex Smith because he had the feel of a future game manager with enough athleticism to make plays with his legs in clutch situations. Unfortunately, Stidham struggled in 2018. His completion percentage, yards per attempt, rating and ratio all decreased significantly from 2017. Similarly, he was less effective as a runner (and was sacked more frequently). Stidham has already accepted an invitation to the Senior Bowl so he’ll have two more shots to show scouts that his issues were more a product of the Auburn offense than he himself.
- My Pick: Purdue, +3.5
- Similary to the Texas Bowl, I’ll take Purdue and the points because they have the better O. Specifically, the Boilermakers will feature the game’s biggest playmaker in WR Rondale Moore. Moore earned consensus All-American honors earlier this month, the first freshman to do so since Adrian Peterson in 2004. Moore ended with 121 touches for 1,367 yards and 13 TDs: just awesome. It’s probably not best to bet a game based on one player’s potential performance but ultimately betting is entertainment for me and there’s nobody more entertaining in college football right now than Rondale Moore.
Camping World Bowl, Syracuse (9-3) vs West Virginia (9-3), Fri 12/28 at 5:15pm on ESPN:
- Draft Eligible Player to Watch: David Sills, WR, West Virginia
- Since his quarterback (Will Grier) is sitting out the game, I expect Sills to be a focal point of the broadcast. He has a very interesting backstory, he was recruited by Lane Kiffin as a middle school quarterback, and has been uber productive. Sills proved to be a red zone monster in 2017 by leading the FBS in receiving touchdowns with 18 (12 of which came in the red zone). He nearly duplicated the feat in 2018 by catching 15 more (9). Sills is listed at 6040 but he feels bigger than that because he is long and lean. I’d like to see him add a few pounds to his 210lb frame in order to withstand the abuse that a boundary receiver endures in the NFL. Sills may not get the hype of some of the top receivers in this outstanding class but he will certainly be productive in the pros.
- My Pick: Syracuse, +1.5
- The Orange have been a good story this season and I’m thinking there’s a good chance it continues in the Camping World Bowl. Syracuse QB Eric Dungey is one of my favorite players so it’s a shame he is so often injured. It appears that he’s healthy enough now so ‘Cuse should have the edge under center with draft hopeful Will Grier preserving himself. Dungey himself could get late round or priority UDFA consideration despite the injuries. Syracuse has the nation’s 12th ranked offense (40.8 points per game) and should overpower the Mountaineers.
Alamo Bowl, Iowa State (8-4) vs Washington State (10-2), Fri 12/28 at 9:00pm on ESPN:
- Draft Eligible Player to Watch: David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State
- I’ve developed a soft spot for David Montgomery. He might have the best highlight reels of anybody in the draft class and seems like a good kid from what I’ve seen in profiles. Back in 2017, I figured it would be between he and WR N’Keal Harry for the 2019 1.01 spot. Unfortunately, it’s becoming more difficult to explain away Montgomery’s limitations by pointing to his flashy plays. Montgomery lacks top-end or long speed (I expect him to run in the 4.50-4.60 range). He also gets stuffed in the backfield or for no gain too often which makes me question his vision at the line of scrimmage. This observation is borne out in the stats too: his career average of 4.7 yards per carry is low for somebody considered the best of the bunch. Montgomery does have fantastic contact balance and can break tackles. He caught 18 balls in 2018 but showed in 2017 that he can be a bigger part of the passing game (36 receptions). One interesting thing I noticed while watching him is a spin move that he utilizes sometimes when catching the ball out of the backfield. It forces the first defender to miss and can lead to big plays.
- My Pick: Washington State, -3.5
- I’ve been rooting for both of these underdog teams all season so I’m looking forward to see them face off in this bowl. The outcome will be decided by the Washington State passing offense vs the Iowa State passing defense. Wazzou paced the FBS in passing offense (379.8 yards per game), led by QB Gardner Minshew who quietly finished 5th in Heisman voting, Meanwhile the Cyclones rank 63rd in passing defense (228.8). It’ll be close late but I think Washington State is good enough to continue to win ATS (10-2 this season).
Lines and betting stats courtesy of OddsShark.com, as of 12/11.
Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor. My experimental grading system uses a Madden-like approach by weighting position relevant traits on a 100-point scale; bonus or negative points are awarded based on production, size, injury history and character. Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths. So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113. This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games. When time permits, I may add a third game. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…
- Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com, mcubed.net
- Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
- Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
- Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com
- Draft history: drafthistory.com
- Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
- Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
- Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft
- Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com, the media home for FWAA members
- Odds & Gambling Stats: oddsshark.com
Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.
