The Watch List: 2018 ACC Preview

By Bob Cowper

Updated: August 18th 2018

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players, storylines and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. Check back throughout the Summer for previews on each conference and my preseason predictions. During the regular season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year.

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Favorite: Cam Akers, RB, Florida State. According to Vegas, running backs Cam Akers and AJ Dillon have the best odds of winning the Heisman from the ACC. Clemson QB Kelly Bryant is close behind but I’m not sure he holds onto his starting job so I wouldn’t be putting money on him now. Akers has 2,000 yard potential while Dillon has 20 TD potential; ultimately I lean towards Akers as he will be playing on a better team than Dillon and should get more national exposure.
Darkhorse Heisman Candidate: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke. As I have previously discussed in this space, picking a conference’s best dual-threat quarterback is your best bet for predicting the Heisman winner. I’m a fan of Jones, see below, and think he has 3,000/750 yard upside but he needs to score more. Last year he had just 18 total TDs and would need to double that to get in the Heisman conversation. I’m not saying it’s likely, or even probable, but it’s possible.
Offensive Player of the Year: Taquon Marshall, QB, Georgia Tech. Few players in the FBS will be as valuable to their unit as Marshall to the Georgia Tech offense. He won’t get the national recognition of somebody like Cam Akers but he’ll put up big numbers and be a CFF darling. If he stays healthy, Marshall will top 1,000 yards each passing and rushing and will total 30+ TDs.
Defensive Player of the Year: Dexter Lawrence, DL, Clemson. Take your pick from the Clemson defensive line. I’ll go with Lawrence because of the impact he has on the opposing line on every play. Lawrence had a huge freshman season with 62 tackles and 6.5 sacks but regressed in 2017 to 33-2.0. At 6040/340, he’s a mountain of a man. It’s rare to find an interior defensive lineman with the combination of size and athleticism that Lawrence shows.
Newcomer of the Year: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson. According to 247Sports, Trevor Lawrence was the top rated recruit in the 2018 class and had a near-perfect grade of 0.9999, the highest I have seen on their site. Lawrence is huge, listed at 6060, and put up equally big numbers in high school. His recruiting profile on 247Sports touts a 160:21 ratio with over 13,000 passing yards. I take high school stats with a grain of salt of course, but that’s just insane. I am not a big Kelly Bryant fan so I think it’s only a matter of time before we see Lawrence take over at Clemson.
Underclassmen to Watch: The ACC is chock-full of impact sophomores. Rather than pick one, I decided I needed to mention a few:
- Cam Akers, RB, Florida State: Akers will be the best of a talented group of young backs in the ACC this season.
- Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson: Etienne is an explosive runner with a long stride. He gained 766 yards and scored 13 TDs in a RBBC role last season and finished with a 7.2 yards per carry average. It remains to be seen if he can be as effective with a larger workload.
- AJ Dillon, RB, Boston College: Dillon is a 6000/245 bruiser who has a nose for the end zone. He scored 14 TDs last season and should see 20 this season. He’s a workhorse back who earned 300 carries as a true freshman and had four games with over 30.
- Greg Dortch, WR, Wake Forest: Dortch is an undersized (5090/165) slot and screen receiver who dominated at times in 2017 before getting injured. Against Louisville he had an incredible 10-167-4 line before falling to an abdominal injury. He contributes as a rusher and returner as well.
Best QB-WR Tandem: Ryan Finley and Kelvin Harmon, NC State. Finley is quietly the conference’s best quarterback prospect; meanwhile Harmon should be a first round fantasy rookie pick in 2019. I doubt many casual fans know their names though because they shared the spotlight last season with draftees DE Bradley Chubb, TE Jaylen Samuels and RB Nyheim Hines. Finley and Harmon eclipsed 3,500 and 1,000 yards respectively so they are a productive duo. I have more on these two Wolfpack stars below.
Best RB Corps: Georgia Tech. It should come as no surprise that a triple option team like Tech would land in my “Best RB Corps” spot. The Yellow Jackets led the conference in rushing (307 yards per game) and return their six leading rushers from that squad. The two that catalyze the option attack are QB TaQuon Marshall (1,146-17 rushing and 927-10 passing) and RB KirVonte Benson (1,073-6).
Coach on the Hottest Seat: Larry Fedora, North Carolina. Fedora has been in the news recently after his curious remarks at ACC Media Day. Those comments were best summarized by Luke Decock in the Charlotte News-Observer: “This is all ludicrous, of course, the earnest hyperbole a little less dangerous than the willful denial.” Even if Fedora didn’t put a target on his own back, he went 3-9 in 2017 and hasn’t won a bowl game since 2013. The Tar Heels are also dealing with “another compliance black eye” after numerous players were suspended for selling team-issued apparel. A winning coach could withstand most of this drama but not one who suffers another losing season.

Teams to Watch

Miami (10-3 in 2017)

I was consistently down on Miami last season. I did not believe they could run the table and kept picking against them during their winning streak. The wheels finally came off in late November when Miami lost to Pitt, a game I still remember for how frustrating it was to watch, which started a season-ending three game losing skid. Miami should be in the ACC Coastal running again but what makes them even more interesting to watch are the plethora of NFL prospects they will field. On offense they will feature RB Travis Homer, WR Ahmmon Richards and TE Michael Irvin Jr (Editor’s note: Irvin Jr. is now injured). The defense returns its top five tacklers, including first round hopeful safety Jaquan Johnson. LB Shaq Quarterman and CB Michael Jackson should end with high draft grades as well. The Hurricanes feature 14 returning starters, including QB Malik Rosier. I was very critical of Rosier last season and hope that an additional season of experience helps him play more efficiently. If he does, Miami will end up in another New Year’s Six bowl, as I am currently predicting, with a shot at the playoff.

Florida State (7-6 in 2017)

I don’t think there is any disagreement among college football fans that the Seminoles will rebound from a demoralizing 7-6 season last year which required them to make up a meaningless game against UL-Monroe just to become bowl eligible. The question is, just how high do they rebound with new head coach Willie Taggart? I have gone out on a slimsy (yes, that’s a word) limb and predicted that they will be selected for the College Football Playoff. Three of FSU’s toughest games (the nationally broadcast opener versus VaTech, Clemson and Florida) will be played in Tallahassee. I’m also feeling optimistic because I think the offense will be miles ahead of 2017. QB Deondre Francois returns from injury; if he’s shelved again, sophomore James Blackman now has valuable experience. The offensive line, which tends to be a weak spot for Florida State, returns four starters. The largest factor will be the running backs: wunderkind soph Cam Akers and senior Jacques Patrick. Akers crested 1,000 yards (1,094) and earned 2nd-Team All-ACC honors as a true freshman. Patrick is a 6030/231 bruiser who added 780 yards of his own. Both backs had seven scores. The receiving corps is filled with young and/or unproven targets but the team’s leading receiver, Nyqwan Murray returns. The defense may struggle as they only return four starters and lost top prospect Derwin James. One interesting stat gives me hope: per Phil Steele, the last time the Seminoles returned just four defensive starters, which was 2013, they allowed just 12.1 yards per game. Oh, and by the way, that team went 14-0 and won the BCS National Championship.

Players to Watch

Honorable Mentions

Daniel Jones, QB, Duke: Jones is on my shortlist of candidates for the 2019 QB1 spot. In my limited study, I noted that he has good anticipation and throws excellently while on the run. He has above average athleticism for the position and runs with good vision. There are some areas for improvement, namely his passing accuracy and pocket awareness. Plus, he could add a few pounds to fill out his 6050 body due to his physical playing style. His touchdown total decreased last season (16 to 14) while his interceptions increased (9 to 11), which is not a good sign. He did add 518-7 on the ground which helped keep the Blue Devil offense moving. I’ll check in on Jones periodically this season. If he improves nearer a 2:1 ratio he’ll be in consideration for a first round NFL Draft pick.
Deondre Francois, QB, Florida State: This time last year, I was one of many college football fans who was expecting Francois to take a big step forward in 2017. Unfortunately, that growth was stunted in the Seminoles’ opener against Alabama after he sustained a season-ending knee injury. True freshman James Blackman filled in and, luckily for Francois, did not do enough to guarantee himself the job for 2018. I think Francois has the inside track to win the starting job but it’s not impossible to think that Blackman wins the gig in Fall camp. Francois is tough as nails but is on the smaller side for a quarterback prospect (6010/205). He has 3,500 yard upside so I am pulling for him and I hope he gets a chance to realize his potential. I am predicting that FSU will make a run to the College Football Playoff and that hope rests squarely on Francois’ shoulders.
Eric Dungey, QB, Syracuse: I loved watching Dungey last season and recall his standout games against Pitt and Clemson. Sadly, Dungey has a long injury history which has limited him to just 26 career games over three seasons. He’s not all that prolific or efficient (40:21 career ratio and 131.5 career passer rating) but there’s something about him that I enjoy watching. He is a true dual-threat quarterback: in a shortened season he still managed 595 rushing yards and 9 TDs. I’m not sure there exists a universe where Dungey is a relevant 2019 rookie but he’ll be fun to watch in 2018 as long as he stays healthy.
Travis Homer, RB, Miami: Homer started the season as the backup to Mark Walton but took over after Walton went down with an injury. He had a six game stretch in the middle of the season where he totaled 642 yards and 4 TDs; he also added 12-146-1 as a receiver in that span. Homer did sputter a bit down the stretch but that middle-season burst is encouraging. Per DLF, Homer is one of the youngest draft eligible players in the 2019 class which could increase his draft stock if he can enhance his numbers this season.
Jaylen Smith, WR, Louisville: Our friends at the Dynasty Command Center loved Smith for the 2018 draft before he decided to return to school. In Volume One of their rookie prospectus they listed Smith as the WR5. Despite coming back for his senior season, Smith is just 21 years old. He has elite size at 6040/219 and pairs his big frame with 4.50 speed. He is a constant deep threat. Eight of his 60 receptions in 2017 went for 25 or more yards; in 2016, on just 27 receptions, that number was even higher at nine. A wrist injury caused him to miss time in 2017 but he finished strong with 7-107-1 in the Cardinals’ bowl game. My biggest concern is whether new starting quarterback Jawon “Puma” Pass can hit Smith downfield with the same frequency.
Tommy Sweeney, TE, Boston College: Sweeney is the leading returning receiver on a potentially ascending BC team. Last season, he paced the Eagles with 36 receptions, 512 yards and 4 TDs. The passing offense should improve in 2018 with QB Anthony Brown back under center. Brown started the year as a redshirt freshman but missed the end of the campaign with an injury; when he was healthy he struggled (11:9, 51.9%) but another year of experience will help. I have not watched any film of Sweeney but based on his size (6050/255) I expect that he will be able to hold his own as a blocker.
Austin Bryant, Clelin Ferrell, Dexter Lawrence, Christian Wilkins, DL, Clemson: I don’t have the space, or honestly the expertise, to delve into the Clemson defensive line in this preview. Suffice it to say that they will be a fearsome group. Come next Spring, we could see all four of these guys getting first round NFL Draft buzz. If you don’t believe me, just check out one of many mock drafters who are predicting just that. Some others are saying that this unit is overrated – let’s ask ACC quarterbacks what they think.
Jaquan Johnson, S, Miami: Johnson is the leading safety prospect according to a number of sources I trust (i.e. Phil Steele’s preview magazine and DraftScout.com). He’s a former 4-star recruit who decided to stay home and eschew offers from heavyweights like USC, LSU and Clemson. Johnson became a full-time starter in 2016 and did not disappoint. He finished with 96 tackles, 4 INTs, 3 forced fumbles and 2 fumble recoveries. The Miami offense prides itself in forcing turnovers and Johnson was an important link in that chain (pun intended).

Ryan Finley, QB, North Carolina State

Finley is entering his third season as the starting signal caller for NC State. He transferred from Boise State in 2015 as a graduate transfer. Finley was granted a sixth year of eligibility because his two seasons at Boise were marred by injuries. So, he arrived at Raleigh as the rare graduate transfer with three years of eligibility for his new team. If you’re thinking that Finley must be an old prospect after such a winding road, you’d be right. Finley is currently 23.6 years old and is the oldest prospect on DLF’s 2019 age table. Age doesn’t necessarily make or break somebody’s draft stock, but it will be a hurdle Finley needs to overcome in scouts’ eyes.

On the field, Finley has played well but has been more of a distributor than a dynamic playmaker. He has completed 63.0% of his passes for NC State with a 35:14 ratio over two seasons. He doesn’t commit many turnovers but he also doesn’t sling the ball around either. He threw for a career-high 3,514 yards in 2017 but his yards per attempt dropped to 7.4 (sixth best in the ACC). Finley added a bit on the ground in 2017: 198 yards and 3 TDs. He’s not the type of prospect whose stats and game logs will garner attention from casual fans. Instead, Finley will need to impress during film study.

I came away from my viewing of Finley feeling conflicted. His best trait for me was his awareness, specifically his penchant for fakes of all kinds. There’s a nuance to his play action and pump fakes that I don’t often notice in other college passers. He also has a good awareness of the field and situation. When he scrambles he rarely takes a hit and instead is able to take a track that gets him out of bounds before contact. This combination of field and situational awareness was perhaps best illustrated by a play against FSU. The Wolfpack were up eleven late in the game but Finley was in shotgun in his own end zone. There was a bad snap and as Finley scrambled for the ball, he swatted it out of the back of the end zone for an intentional safety rather than allowing a defender to fall on it for a game-changing touchdown.

Probably my fave play from studying Finley. Late in game, up 11, swats ball out of EZ for safety rather than potentially giving up a defensive TD. Another example of his positive awareness.

Ryan Finley – Intentional Safety vs Florida State – 2017 https://t.co/K3Rwti1rV8

— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) August 11, 2018

Unfortunately the rest of my notes on Finley were less glowing. He has good accuracy and anticipation on short throws but he’s lacking on intermediate and deep throws. A number of his deep throws were well overthrown or out of bounds so his receiver had no chance. Speaking of short throws, many of his attempts are quick screens or slants without multiple reads. As an athlete he is not quick (maybe 4.75) but he does have functional rushing ability to gain a few yards. His arm is more confident than strong. He trusts himself to fit the ball into tight windows but sometimes he lacks the zip or accuracy to get it done. Right now, I see Finley projecting as an NFL backup with some upside to start an occasional game. (Film watched: Clemson 2017, Florida State 2017)

Kelvin Harmon, WR, North Carolina State

Harmon emerged as a sophomore in 2017, finishing with 69 receptions, 1,017 yards and 4 TDs. His season started off with a bang when he had a combined 19-235-1 line to start the year against South Carolina and Marshall. He also had big games against Notre Dame (7-97-1), Clemson (8-155-1) and Wake Forest (8-105). He has boom or bust capability, shown by a few duds on the game logs: four games under 25 yards. Harmon exhibits a good mix of speed, size and strength. I estimate he has 4.50 speed and he’s listed at 6030/213. While I think Harmon may measure shorter than 6030, there’s no questioning his ability to win the ball in the air.

Put simply, Harmon excels in contested catch situations. He often high points the ball and is strong enough to survive the defender and the ground with possession. He’s also adept at catching the ball over his shoulder while in stride. He’s a powerful runner after the catch who can break tackles and carry defenders on his back for extra yardage. In the game against Clemson, I noted two spectacular routes that he ran which gave him separation. It’s a shame there aren’t more full games cuts of Harmon because I would love to see more of his route running because what I saw was great. He releases well off the line due to his combination of speed and strength. If I were to nitpick, I would say that Harmon needs to be eliminate some of his body catches. Sometimes it’s like he jumps too high which causes him to bring in the ball at his midsection rather than away from the body with his hands.

Based on the above size/speed measureables Harmon would be comparable to guys like Courtland Sutton and Allen Robinson. I think Harmon will project more like Stefon Diggs in the NFL because of his excellent route running ability. Harmon will be a first rounder in rookie drafts next year but I suspect his stock will fluctuate as he’s not as “sexy” as some of the other big name receiver prospects. (Film watched: Clemson 2017, Highlights 2017)

Ahmmon Richards, WR, Miami

Ahmmon Richards starred as a true freshman in 2016. He earned freshman All-American honors after finishing the year with 49 receptions, 934 yards and 3 TDs. His 19.1 yards per reception mark was fourth best in the ACC that season. Expectations were high for Richards in 2017 as a sophomore but unfortunately injury sidelined him to start the season and again in October and then again in December. Richards ended up playing just 7 games, totaling 24 catches for 439 yards and 3 TDs. Encouragingly, he finished the regular season strong, combining for 7-98-2 against Virginia and Pitt. Richards is a lean 6010/190. At that size, I’d like to see him flash 4.45 speed which looks probable on film. Per the Hurricanes, he’s ran a 4.31 and a 4.40 on previous attempts but you always need to question school-reported numbers.

Richards’ tape was frustrating to watch. For starters, he was often the victim of poor quarterback play from Malik Rosier. This was especially apparent against Florida State where Rosier chucked some ducks. Pair that with questionable hands from Richards and you have multiple plays that should have gone for points instead of going incomplete. Richards often body catches the ball; when it does hit his hands he too frequently let’s it zip right through so I question his hand placement and hand strength. His play strength in contested situations is also lacking. He’s not the type of receiver who will play above the rim and win jump balls with regularity. Where Richards excelled is on shorter routes. He has an elite ability to get off the line and away from press-man coverage on slants. He quickly slaps the defender’s hands away and can chop through contact to get open. After the catch, I noted a few plays where Richards showed his speed, cutting ability and some strength to gain extra yards. He even had an impressive hurdle against Syracuse which showed his athletic ability. Unfortunately, my sample size was just ten receptions so I want to see more opportunities for RAC this season. Richards is a willing blocker whom I saw lay out two Seminole defenders (one was a penalty though). He lined up tight in a few goal line situations and did not block well then but in the open field he’ll at least be average. I want to see Richards stay healthy this season and improve the consistency of his hands. If he can pair average hands with his speed and ability to get open at the line he could turn into a valuable NFL asset. (Film watched: Syracuse 2017, Florida State 2017)

Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor. My experimental grading system uses a Madden-like approach by weighting position relevant traits on a 100-point scale; bonus or negative points are awarded based on production, size, injury history and character. Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths. So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113. This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch. For top prospects I may add a third game, while for long shots I might only devote the time for one. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft
Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com, the media home for FWAA members

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

The Watch List 2021: Early WR Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Early RB Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Championship Game Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Early TE Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 13 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Early QB Tiers

Throughout the rest of the season I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 11 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 10 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List: Bowl Game Previews, Part III

By Bob Cowper

Updated: December 21st 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. During the college bowl season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. Note: times listed are Eastern.

Wednesday, Dec. 27

Independence Bowl, Florida State (6-6) vs. Southern Miss (8-4), 1:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Florida State: 78th scoring offense, 92nd passing offense, 84th rushing offense; 34th scoring defense, 35th passing defense, 33rd rushing defense
Southern Miss: 48th scoring offense, 47th passing offense, 40th rushing offense; 40th scoring defense, 24th passing defense, 28th rushing defense

“Buzz, your girlfriend, woof.” That’s how I’m feeling about this one. Florida State just barely managed bowl eligibility after a late season makeup game against UL-Monroe. They lost pro prospect QB Deondre Francois in the season opener and struggled with freshman James Blackman under center since. They also lost head coach Jimbo Fisher who, mistakenly in my opinion, abandoned Tallahassee for College Station. FSU will be playing the Independence Bowl without another potential pro: safety Derwin James. James has decided to skip the bowl in order to preserve his NFL Draft stock; expect James to be in consideration for a Top 10 pick in April although he was surpassed by Alabama’s Minkah Fitzpatrick as the top defensive back prospect. If you’re looking for a reason to tune in to watch the Seminoles, check out freshman RB Cam Akers, WR Auden Tate and CB Tavarus McFadden. McFadden will likely come out but his stock has definitely been dented by the team’s subpar season. McFadden himself disappointed too going from 8 INTs in 2016 to zero in 2017. He’s not great in run support (just 27 tackles this season) so he needs to remind scouts that he has ball skills. Akers has been streaky this season but I would attribute that more to poor quarterback play than anything else. He finished the season with a strong game against UL-Monroe (117 yards, 2 TDs) to give him a solid 931-7 line for the year; interestingly, he has not had a reception in the last three games. Tate has just 60 receptions, 873 yards and 13 TDs in his career (35-464-7 this season) but is still an NFL Draft prospect because of his size (6’5″ and 225lbs) and ability to make contested catches.

Southern Mississippi is led by JUCO transfer QB Kwadra Griggs. He has 15 TDs to just 2 INTs plus 2 rushing TDs. Griggs started the year sharing the starting role and suffered a hand injury but since a dismal game against Tennessee he has played well (722 yards, 7 TDs, 0 INT). I’m a big fan of South Miss RB Ito Smith. He’s undersized at 5’9″ 195lbs but he’s durable (50 career games). He’s a true three down back because he is a good receiver (36 for 370 and 2 scores this season) and a good pass blocker (94.6% pass blocking efficiency per Pro Football Focus). Back in Week 8, I predicted that Smith might be the 2018 version of Kareem Hunt and Tarik Cohen for fantasy owners: an underappreciated prospect whose pass catching skill ensures he gets on the field early in his career.

Despite my love of Smith, FSU just has the better athletes. Prediction: Florida State

New Era Pinstripe Bowl, Iowa (7-5) vs. Boston College (7-5), 5:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Iowa: 68th scoring offense, 89th passing offense, 94th rushing offense; 20th scoring defense, 50th passing defense, 38th rushing defense
Boston College: 82nd scoring offense, 115th passing offense, 24th rushing offense; 36th scoring defense, 31st passing defense, 102nd rushing defense

No team influenced the College Football Playoff picture more than Iowa did with their blowout of #5 Ohio State. If it weren’t for that loss, the Buckeyes could be playing for a national championship. The Hawkeyes are led by three guys who will be playing on Sundays next year: CB Joshua Jackson, LB Josey Jewell and RB Akrum Wadley. Jackson offers solid run support (47 tackles), has good instincts when the ball is in the air (7 INTs, 18 passes defended) and is incredibly clutch. In the two biggest games Iowa played this season, against Ohio State and Wisconsin, Jackson combined for 6 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 1 pass defended, 5 INTs and 2 return touchdowns. One of those interceptions against Ohio State was an OBJ-esque one-hander; another was a hard fought battle with the receiver where he had the strength to rip the ball from the receiver’s hands. Those two games established him as a Top 10 CB heading into the 2018 draft. Josey Jewell enjoyed an equally impressive season that buoyed his draft stock. Jewell has 120+ tackles in three straight seasons and is the conference’s #2 career tackler since 2005 (when www.sports-reference.com/cfb started tracking the record). Jewell also set career highs for tackles for loss, sacks and passes defended on his way to being named the 2017 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. Jewell trusts his instincts and play recognition which allows him to be the first to the hole or the ball carrier on most plays. RB Akrum Wadley leads the offense. He went over 1,000 yards again this season (1,021) but his yards per carry did decrease from 6.4 to 4.4. He’s also a factor in the passing game with 62 receptions, 644 yards and 6 TDs over the last two years. I n my 2018 fantasy draft positional rankings I had Wadley at RB9 and would expect him to stay in the RB8-12 range when I update in the offseason.

Boston College’s best weapon is freshman RB AJ Dillon, other than that the cupboard is pretty bare on offense. Starting QB Anthony Brown is out for the rest of the season (and wasn’t particularly effective anyway). Career backup QB Darius Wade had his best game of his career in the season finale against Syracuse: 16-20, 248 yards and 1 TD. Because of Brown’s ineffectiveness, the Eagles don’t have a WR of note (the leading receiver was Kobay White with 32-396-4). Dillon has gained 1,432 yards (#2 in the ACC) on 268 attempts (#1 in the ACC). Oddly, he doesn’t have a single reception; he had the most carries of any FBS back without a single catch. Dillon has a rare combination of size (6’0″ and 240lbs) and speed (4.55 range coming out of high school) that compares to Leonard Fournette’s combine measureables. Dillon has a way to go before we’re considering him for the NFL Draft but I’m optimistic. Unfortunately, DE Harold Landry likely will not play in this one. Landry will be a first round pick in the Spring but his stock has decreased due injury and decreased production.

Despite them having the same record, I don’t have a doubt about this one: Iowa is the better team. Prediction: Iowa

Foster Farms Bowl, Purdue (6-6) vs. Arizona (7-5), 8 p.m. (FOX)

Purdue: 97th scoring offense, 55th passing offense, 83rd rushing offense; 18th scoring defense, 85th passing defense, 30th rushing defense
Arizona: 6th scoring offense, 110th passing offense, 3rd rushing offense; 110th scoring defense, 122nd passing defense, 89th rushing defense

In late October, it would have been tough to predict these two teams matching up in the Foster Farms Bowl. Arizona was 4-1 in the conference (6-2 overall) and looking like a serious contender for the division. Purdue meanwhile was 3-5 and coming off their third straight loss. The fortunes for both teams changed though from that point forward. Arizona lost three of their last four while Purdue won three of four. So, here we are.

Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm was one of the many coaches in the running for Tennessee’s opening. Brohm stayed put and used the courting as a bargaining chip to get a better contract. Brohm has used a two-quarterback rotation throughout the season featuring David Blough (1,103 yards, 65% completion percentage, 9 TDs, 4 INTs) and Elijah Sindelar (1,730 yards, 55.6% completion percentage, 14 TDs, 6 INTs). Blough suffered a serious knee injury against Illinois on November 4 and will not factor in here. In the three games without Blough, Sindelar has thrown the ball a ton: 126 attempts. In those three games he has 7 TDs and just 1 INT. Sindelar’s best game came against #25 Iowa when he went 22-37 for 229 yards and 3 TDs. Hindsight is always 20/20 but maybe if Brohm stuck with Sindelar all season they could have been better than 6-6. The Boilermakers have a quartet of backs with 250+ yards each, the leader of which is junior Markell Jones (480 yards, 1 TD, 11 receptions). On defense, Purdue is led by LB Markus Bailey. Bailey is a redshirt sophomore and likely doesn’t have enough hype to come out in 2018 but if he continues to improve we’ll see him drafted in 2019 or 2020. This season Bailey has an impressive stat line of: 78 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, 1 INT, 2 passes defended, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery.

Arizona has two players that I wanted to highlight: QB Khalil Tate and CB Lorenzo Burns. Burns is a redshirt freshman so he’s not draft eligible but his stats caught my eye. He has 75 total tackles which is a lot for a corner. He also has 5 INTs which led the PAC-12. Tate took over the starting role in October and led the team to four straight victories. He’s not the best passer but he’s efficient enough to keep the offense on the field until he can make a big play with his legs. Tate threw for more than 200 yards just once this season and averages about 150 yards per game. Amazingly, he actually has more yards rushing (1,353) than passing (1,289) on the year. He has 9 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs. Tate’s biggest game of the year came against Colorado when he racked up 327 yards rushing and 4 TDs. Something that is worth noting: Tate only has 60 total rushing yards over the last two regular season games. I did not watch him in either contest so I cannot say whether it was due to scheme or maybe he has a minor injury.

This game is a toss-up for me so I’ll take the team featuring the best player on the field and that will be Khalil Tate. Prediction: Arizona

Texas Bowl, Texas (6-6) vs. Missouri (7-5), 9 p.m. (ESPN)

Texas: 61st scoring offense, 36th passing offense, 95th rushing offense; 31st scoring defense, 108th passing defense, 6th rushing defense
Missouri: 10th scoring offense, 14th passing offense, 35th rushing offense; 96th scoring defense, 110th passing defense, 61st rushing defense

The Texas Bowl features two former conference foes in Texas and Missouri. The teams last faced off in Big 12 play in 2011 before Mizzou left for the SEC; Texas leads the all-time series at 15-4 (not that it matters, these players were all in middle school, but it’s just interesting to see teams matching up with so many prior meetings in a bowl game). Despite the teams having a combined 13-11 record, I found quite a few interesting storylines to research.

Texas started the season with sophomore QB Shane Buechele as the starter but they have gone back and forth between him and freshman Sam Ehlinger due to injury. Neither guy has been great: they combine for 3,153 yards, 16 TDs and 11 INTs. Based on the raw passing stats, Beuchele is the better play in the bowl game but Ehlinger offers a dimension as a rusher (364 yards, 2 TDs). Since the start of bowl practices, both quarterbacks have reportedly been getting first team work. My money would be on Ehlinger since he was the primary passer in the team’s last two games (66 attempts to Buechele’s nine). WR Colin Johnson will be the main target no matter who is under center. Johnson is huge (6’6″ 220lb) but just a sophomore so thankfully he’ll have another season to improve before hearing the siren song of the NFL Draft. Johnson has 79 receptions, 1,050 yards and 5 TDs so far in his career – not amazing but encouraging given the struggles of the Texas offense the last two seasons. The Longhorn running game is a mess. Ehlinger is actually the team’s leading rusher by both attempts and yards, although he’s not very efficient as he averages just 3.5 yards per attempt. Chris Warren, a big and bruising back who was slowed by injuries early in his career but looked promising, changed positions mid-season and is now transferring. Freshman RB Daniel Young finished the season as the lead back with 58 rushes for 238 yards and 2 TDs over the last four games. Leading the defense is LB Malik Jefferson who is one of the nation’s leading prospects at ILB. Jefferson has 110 tackles this season. Jefferson flashed in my eyes when playing against Sam Darnold and USC early in the season (he had 11 tackles and 2 tackles for loss). He had six double-digit tackle games on the season and added four sacks. Jefferson measures in at 6’3″ and 240lbs with a projected speed of 4.72 per NFLDraftScout.com. Similar size and speed comps include a number of key IDP players: Sean Lee, Kiko Alonso, Blake Martinez and Nick Vigil. Phil Steele’s preview magazine listed him as the #1 ILB for 2018 while NFLDraftScout.com has him listed as their #2 ILB in Jefferson’s 2019 class. Chances are that he comes out and that he is a Top 15 pick.

Missouri’s season has been one of streaks. They started the season with a loss over FCS also-ran Missouri State then lost five straight then won six straight. Stories of the team’s turnaround all point to head coach Barry Odom as the rock that keep the team on track despite the struggles. I don’t know Odom from Adam but it seems that the players love and respect him so that’s what matters. Throughout Missouri’s winning streak, I continually wanted to spotlight QB Drew Lock but I never got the chance. Lock is a three year starter who has improved on his stats year over year. In 2017 he finished the regular season with 3,695 yards, 43 TDs and 12 INTs. His completion percentage could be better (just 58.2%) but there is enough potential there to consider him as a draft prospect. Lock is listed at 6’4″ and 225lb and will run in the 4.80-4.90 range at the combine should he declare. Unfortunately, there aren’t many good comps in that size range, the best likely being AJ McCarron. McCarron did not produce like Lock has though. Lock led the SEC this year in attempts, yards and passing touchdowns (he also led the FBS in passing touchdowns). I’ll do more research and film study on Lock in the offseason if he declares, for now he’s definitely a player to watch. Lock’s top target is WR J’Mon Moore. In three years with Lock throwing him the ball, Moore has totaled 151 receptions, 2,389 yards and 21 TDs. His production in 2016 and 2017 was nearly identical, essentially 60 receptions and 1,000 yards. Moore won’t be a draftable WR fantasy rookie but could get late round NFL Draft consideration because of his height (6’3″).

I think Texas’ defense will outperform their 108th ranking and that they’ll slow Lock enough to keep the game close just not close enough. Prediction: Missouri

Thursday, Dec. 28

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman, Virginia (6-6) vs. Navy (6-6), 1:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Virginia: 101st scoring offense, 42nd passing offense, 126th rushing offense; 67th scoring defense, 14th passing defense, 80th rushing defense
Navy: 49th scoring offense, 128th passing offense, 2nd rushing offense; 84th scoring defense, 86th passing defense, 58th rushing defense

Since I was using Sports-Reference.com’s “Rivalry Finder” tool to look up the Texas/Missouri matchup I figured I might as well check out Virginia/Navy as well since that felt like a natural rivalry given the geography and military connections (it’s no coincidence the Military Bowl picked either team when given the chance). Turns out that the teams have met 33 times in their history but not since 1994. For what it’s worth, Navy leads the “rivalry” 23-10.

Navy is coming off a tough loss to Army on December 15 so there could be a bit of a “hangover” in this one. Even aside from the Army loss in the snow, the Midshipmen have been cold as of late, winning just one of the last seven. As most casual college football fans know, Navy, like the other service academies, runs a rush heavy triple-option offense. So, it’s no surprise to see Navy with two 1,000+ yard rushers (and another at 500+). What might be surprising is just how often the quarterback keeps the ball, eschewing his two other options. Junior QB Zach Abey leads the team with 1,325 yards rushing and 14 TDs (plus 805 yards and 7 TDs passing). Abey missed time during the season with both a concussion and a shoulder injury. In his stead, sophomore QB/WR Malcolm Perry emerged as the primary playmaker. If you watched the Army vs Navy game, you’ll no doubt remember Perry. Perry is not a threat to pass (just two attempts) but he is electric with the ball in his hands, so much so that when Abey was healthy Navy got Perry involved as a a receiver (13-303-2) and as a kick returner (24.5 yards per return). Even if Abey is fully healthy, expect to see more of Perry.

Bronco Mendenhall’s Cavaliers improved significantly after a 2-10 campaign last season. It’s the first time UVA has been bowl eligible since 2011 and just the second time in a decade. Leading the offense is senior QB Kurt Benkert. Honestly, I did not know Benkert’s name to start the season but he had enough success this year (3,062 yards and 25 TDs) that he’s been getting some buzz. I have not watched Benkert’s film so the bowl will be a good introduction against Navy’s mediocre pass defense. Benkert’s favorite target is the versatile Olamide Zaccheaus. Zaccheaus has 80 receptions for 833 yards and 5 TDs while adding 182 rushing yards and a rushing score. Earlier in his career he also returned kicks and even threw a touchdown pass in 2015. He’s the type of player that offensive coordinators love scheming for. On defense, UVA features two mid-round NFL Draft prospects in LB Micah Kiser (132 tackles, 5 sacks this season) and S Quin Blanding (120 tackles, 4 INTs this season). Both players are mutli-year starters who have nearly 900 career tackles between them. Kiser and Blanding will be key against the Navy rushing attack. In their November 11 matchup, Virginia held the Georgia Tech triple-option offense to just 220 yards. Just 220 yards you ask? It may sound like a lot but it’s the fourth lowest total of the season for Tech, so Virginia’s defense played well considering. In that game, Kiser had 18 tackles while Blanding had just three but added an interception.

This one may be a home game for Navy but I believe UVA has the better athletes all over the field. Prediction: Virginia

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl, #16 Michigan State (9-3) vs. #18 Washington State (9-3), 9 p.m. (FS1)

Michigan State: 106th scoring offense, 77th passing offense, 67th rushing offense; 23rd scoring defense, 30th passing defense, 5th rushing defense
Washington State: 42nd scoring offense, 2nd passing offense, 129th rushing offense; 47th scoring defense, 9th passing defense, 41st rushing defense

It’s not quite the “Grandaddy of them all” as Keith Jackson would say, but this Big Ten vs PAC-12 matchup is a good one. I’m a Michigan and Rutgers fan, a Big Ten apologist and huge Rose Bowl fan. My favorite pieces of memorabilia are a program and press pass from the 1998 Rose Bowl when Michigan won a share of the national championship; I found the pieces in a used bookstore in Ann Arbor, bought them immediately and had them framed. So, you can see I’m a sucker for a Big Ten vs PAC-12 matchup. I’ll call this one Rose Bowl Lite.

Michigan State’s mediocre offense is led by QB Brian Lewerke and RB LJ Scott. Lewerke is a redshirt sophomore who is starting for the first time this season. He has 2,580 yards, 17 TDs and 6 INTs plus 489 yards rushing and 5 rushing TDs. Lewerke finished mid-pack in the conference in most passing statistics so he’s solid but he’s not on the level of recent Spartan QBs like Conor Cook and Kirk Cousins. Scott started the year with some hype but he mostly disappointed. In my early 2018 rookie mock draft, I had Scott as my 2.05; I had him ahead of other backs like Sony Michel and Ronald Jones who are definitely ahead of him now. A running back of his size should see more TDs because of his utility near the goal line. In 2016 Scott had just 6 TDs and he duplicated that output in 2017. That’s just not good enough. Scott did injure an ankle during the season but he was actually dressed and active for the Michigan game that he supposedly missed due to the injury. I didn’t believe this when I first read it while doing my research but Scott was arrested in October for his seventh charge for driving without a valid license. That is staggering. I don’t know Scott and don’t want to cast aspersions but how can you be so irresponsible? Either get your driver’s license right or stop driving. If Scott is convicted, which I doubt would happen but who knows, he could face jail time. Oh, I forgot to mention that despite being the primary ball carrier in each of his three years, Scott has failed to break 1,000 yards in a season. Between the poor production, a small injury concern and an alarming pattern of behavior, I am out on Scott if he does declare early. I would rather miss on him than draft him in my league and deal with dead cap if I have to cut him. On defense, Sparty’s heart and soul is sophomore LB Joe Bachie. He has 94 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, 3 INTs, 2 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery on the season.

Cougar QB Luke Falk was my QB4 in early November when I did my early positional rankings for 2018 rookies. I will probably bump Falk down a bit (or more accurately, bump Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield up a bit) but that doesn’t mean I am down on him. Depending on his landing spot after the NFL Draft, I would consider drafting Falk late in my superflex leagues as a stash. Falk is a three year starter at Washington State and has incredible career stats: 1,403 completions, 14,481 passing yards, 119 passing TDs, 39 INTs and a 68.3% completion percentage. Falk’s stats did decrease a bit this year so that concerns me slightly but not enough to push him off my board. Falk’s best attributes are his experience, size and accuracy – those traits will definitely get him drafted to be a backup behind an aging vet. Washington State doesn’t bother running the ball too much (second worst rushing offense in the FBS at 71.1 yards per game) but that does not mean that RBs Jamal Morrow and James Williams are worthless. Both backs excel in the passing game with 898 combined receiving yards. The team’s leading receiver is junior Tavares Martin (70-831-9) but Falk spreads the love around because five guys have 50+ receptions. One other prospect to keep an eye on, not that you could miss him, is G Cody O’Connell. O’Connell’s nickname is “The Continent” and he deserves the title because he is listed at 6’9″ and 354lbs. It’s odd to see such a big guard and that could be telling that he’s not playing tackle. Per WalterFootball.com, one of my favorite draft resources, team sources think O’Connell will go undrafted. Reading that tempered my excitement but still how often do we get to see a 6’9″ player?

Maybe I’m blinded by my Big Ten fandom but I’m going with Sparty here. Michigan State has the better defense and is more likely to stop Washington State’s offense than vice versa. Prediction: Michigan State

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper