Early RSO Contracts: QBs
Knowing the types of contracts given out by other fantasy teams can give the alert reader a big advantage when your own RSO free agency auction arrives. Your league settings and available players will have a big impact on the size of contracts given out at various positions, but looking at the relative contracts within position groups provides some useful information. To that end, I begin a new series examining early RSO auctions starting with a look at quarterbacks.
The Elite
Aaron Rodgers comes in as the most expensive quarterback by more than four million per season for a good reason. He finished as the QB1 or QB2 every health season except for one (he finished as the QB7) while he was a starter. There is not a safer player in all of fantasy football in my view. Historically, Rodgers has not been among the league passing attempts leaders, which sometimes limits his yardage totals. He more than makes up for lack of volume with massive yearly touchdown totals do to extreme efficiency and extensive red-zone usage. The Packer star also adds nearly mistake-free play, not throwing double-digit interceptions for seven seasons. With all of the gushing praise just put on Rodgers, I will not own him in many leagues. The drop-off from Rodgers to more cost-friendly options is not enough for me to justify the enormous premium placed on Rodgers in most instances.
Andrew Luck is the next quarterback at $5.5 million more per season than the third QB. Luck finished as the QB2 and QB5 in PPG for 2014 and 2016. The talent and upside are undeniable but his current price does not reflect the risk involved of a quarterback with multiple shoulder injuries who is not throwing the ball yet. There are others available for a much cheaper cost (Russell Wilson for example) with similar upside and without the injury concerns.
Youth vs Veterans
The youth movement appears to be in full effect for quarterbacks in RSO leagues. Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, and Dak Prescott come off the board next. Carr and Winston, in particular, represent purely speculative projections at this point. Carr paved the way to his best fantasy finish as the QB10 in PPG while Winston has not finished better than the QB19. Tampa Bay added premier deep-threat DeSean Jackson and the first tight end taken in the NFL draft, O.J. Howard this offseason where Oakland took a more modest approach on the receiving spectrum adding tight end Jared Cook and return specialist Cordarrelle Patterson. None of these additions warrant the cost of these players.
Moving down our table we find Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan as the QB9 through QB11. This seems like a bargain for the QB2, QB3, and QB5 from last season even taking into account the expected regression from the group in 2017. Ryan obliterated his previous career highs in essentially every statistical passing category and the Falcons lost their offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan who moved on to coach San Francisco. Less discussed is Brady’s likely regression coming into his age 40 season. The Patriots’ quarterback put up his best season since his 50-touchdown performance in 2007 with a campaign that included a crazy 28-2 touchdown to interception ratio. Brees, on the other hand, had a very normal Brees-type season. He is among the most consistent quarterbacks in the league. One must look all the way back to his time in San Diego for a finish outside the top 6. Expect another one in 2017 with around 5,000 passing yards.
The Bargain Bin
There are many less expensive, quality alternatives to be found for those looking to go cheap at quarterback in either 1-QB 2-QB/Superflex leagues. Phillip Rivers is a rock solid borderline QB1/QB2 who consistently provides value at his mid-QB2 cost. Andy Dalton provides a lot of upside at the QB18 position. He finished as the QB3 in 2013 and was the QB4 through week 13 in 2015 prior to an injury which ended his season. The Bengals signal-caller carries more volatility than most with a revamped offensive line that struggled in 2016 and arguably lost its two best linemen in free agency. This is balanced by a loaded skill position group which gets two of Cincinnati’s most dynamic playmakers back from injury, tight end Tyler Eifert and wide receiver A.J. Green. The Bengals also added two of the top offensive talents in the draft, wide receiver John Ross and running back Joe Mixon. For my money, Tyrod Taylor represents the best value among quarterbacks in 2017. He finished as as a QB1 in PPG the last two season thanks in large part to his dynamic rushing ability. His limitations as a pocket passer likely prevent him from being a top end performer, but the ability to get a solid starter at backup money is what makes an RSO team.
Rivers, Dalton, and Taylor all cost less than Philadelphia Eagles Carson Wentz for some reason. Wentz predictably struggled mightily as a rookie finishing outside the top-24 quarterbacks in passer rating and QBR. He was let down by one of the worst receiving groups in the NFL and a coaching staff that asked far too much of a rookie forcing Wentz to throw the fifth most attempts in the league. Wentz has the physical tools to become a good quarterback, but there is not much reason for an RSO team to gamble with a significant, long-term investment on an unknown when there are plenty of cheap, reliable alternatives.
Average RSO Quarterback Contracts
Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.
