Running’s Back – Here’s Who Is Good At It

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By Grant Viviano

Updated: March 24th 2020

Some of the best business advice I ever received came from my Uncle one day upon discussing the stock market. He said, “Grant, there are 3 keys to making it in this arena. You have to be aggressive, you have to be lucky, and you have to be disciplined.” Now I think most would agree that the first two are a given, but just how does one practice discipline on Wall Street? After all, isn’t it basically Roulette on your laptop? The answer is both big and simple. I’m not kidding…that’s literally the answer. Big data becomes a simple model/message. You do the work combing through the annals of history, whether that be the last 3-12 months of the Oil and Gas sector, or say the 2019 NFL Season, and then you convert it into some concise, actionable strategy that gives you an edge over the rest of the field. Straying from your edge reverts you back to just another gambler. Staying discipline by ALWAYS implementing your model gets you in the green, or for our purposes, in the dance for your fantasy playoffs. Let me show you what I mean.

Here are the NFL’s 2019 Top 25 Runners based on a composition of 1^st Down Efficiency and Yards Per Carry Metrics. I emphasize Runners because this list does not factor in the receiving aspects of the Running Back position. Our focus is on measuring true efficiency & effectiveness; receptions are often a product of game script. Therefore, players like James White and Austin Ekeler have been left off the list. Same goes for Christian McCaffrey. He’s the best in the bizz and we don’t need to poke holes in his game. There are 13 metrics and they each feature Yards Per Carry and 1^st Down %:

Attempts 1-10, Attempts 11-20

1^st Half Attempts, 2^nd Half Attempts

1^st Quarter Attempts, 2^nd Quarter Attempts, 3^rd Quarter Attempts, 4^th Quarter Attempts

Score Margin: Attempts when the margin is within 0-7, Attempts when the margin is within 8-14, and Attempts when the margin is 15+

Attempts when Ahead, Attempts when Behind

If we aren’t going to log in the countless hours breaking down individual game film to spot specific reads, schemes and personnel, I believe this offers the next best way to get a well-rounded evaluation on how these RBs perform in various situations. Our benchmarks are 4.5 Yards Per Carry and 21.54% 1^st Down Rate (the average conversion rate for these 25 RBs). We are fading anything sub 3.9 YPC or 18.54% 1^st Down Rate. The numbers in each category are Rankings. Here are the results…

Overall	Name	1st Down	YPC
1	Derrick Henry	7	3
2	Chris Carson	2	10
3	Ezekiel Elliott	4	8
4	Mark Ingram	3	6
5	Nick Chubb	14	1
6	Devin Singletary	5	4
7	Dalvin Cook	8	16
8	Marlon Mack	1	16
8	Aaron Jones	9	7
10	Josh Jacobs	13	5
11	Carlos Hyde	11	12
12	Leonard Fournette	15	8
13	Todd Gurley	10	22
14	Melvin Gordon	6	20
15	Saquon Barkley	16	10
16	Ronald Jones	19	18
17	Miles Sanders	24	2
18	Alvin Kamara	21	12
19	Adrian Peterson	20	14
20	Joe Mixon	18	19
21	Sony Michel	12	23
22	Phillip Lindsay	22	15
23	David Montgomery	17	21
24	Devonta Freeman	23	24
25	Le’Veon Bell	25	24

Takeaways:

Although the usual suspects round out the Top 5, it doesn’t take us very long to see how applying these metrics can shake up the natural order of things. Yes that is Devin Singletary chillin’ in the #6 spot. He missed 4 games and was sharing reps with the Little Fundamental – Frank Gore. As a result, many of us overlooked a stellar rookie campaign. Devin was pegged as Maurice Jones Drew 2.0 in some circles, and he backed up those comparisons with a top 5 finish in 1^st Downs Conversion Rate.

Nick Chubb is hands down the best runner of the football. However, due to his team’s poor play-calling, his perceived limitations as a 3^rd Down Back, and the Browns embarrassment of riches at the WR position, Chubb only finished 14^th in 1^st Down Conversion Rate. Meanwhile, guys like Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon put up pedestrian YPCs, but were leaned on heavily to extend drives. The correlation between 1^st down conversions and touchdowns is very strong. Gordon has 18 rushing TDs in his last 23 games started, while Gurley has 29 of his last 29. Nick Chubb….16 rushing TDs in 32 games thus far.

I’ve highlighted Carlos Hyde (245 carries for 1070 yards 6 TDs) and Josh Jacobs (242 carries for 1150 yards 7 TDs) because they essentially had the same production, and I’m not sure many owners are privy to that comparison. Of course, there is no way of knowing where Hyde will be in 2020 or how he will be used, but the perception that he is a one-trick pony plodder, while Jacobs is a 1^st rounder, All-Purpose Back is CURRENTLY incorrect. Jalen Richard ate just as much into Jacobs (20 catches) receiving opportunities as Duke Johnson did to Hyde (10 catches).

On the other end of the spectrum, Miles Sanders (179 carries for 818 yards, 509 receiving) and Alvin Kamara (171 carries for 797 yards, 533 receiving) are on the field for 3^rd Downs, but usually do so in the role of receiver due to their steady QB play. Sanders touchdown upside may always be limited. After Kamara’s descent from 14 to 5 TDs this season, I’m not sure the same can’t be said for him. All I know is TODAY, Miles Sanders should absolutely be viewed in the same light as Alvin Kamara. They are the same player to me.

I know I said we wouldn’t let receptions interfere with our metrics, but I just want to clarify something. Marlon Mack and Dalvin Cook are counterparts using this scale. Very similar rushing production. However, Cook caught 40 more passes than Mack. As long as that trend continues, Cook “should” outpace Mack in fantasy production. I emphasize should because most folks do not realize Marlon Mack led the league in 1^st Down Efficiency. That’s a stat that correlates extremely well with projected redzone and goal-line attempts. With Philip Rivers now at the helm, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Mack lead the league in touchdowns this year.

So I gave you all a tiny taste of the data and some important takeaways, but what’s this mysterious model I teased earlier? Value is the name of the game, same as it’s always been. You will be hard-pressed to find a 2020 redraft league in which you could acquire Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs and Mark Ingram, but I am here to tell you it is possible. You simply have to target smaller names that play just as big. Substitute Marlon Mack, Miles Sanders, Carlos Hyde (hypothetical in which he has a similar workload with his new team) and Devin Singletary, and you have got a stable just as good, yet far more realistic. This is a battle tested fantasy model that I strongly encourage everyone to consider, especially after the Saquon Barkley, Leveon Bell, James Connor, Devonta Freeman and David Johnson debacle we witnessed last year.

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Hold’em or Fold’em: Part 3

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By Nick Andrews

Updated: October 17th 2016

Fantasy football has to be one the most gut-wrenching hobbies to have. You can spend months studying, analyzing and preparing for the season and have it all over before the leaves start to turn. With the amount of injuries that have plagued some owners, there is a chance that even those who started off well may also be in selling mode. Seriously, if someone went into the season with the core of their team being Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson, Ameer Abdullah, Charles Sims, Sammy Watkins, Kennan Allen and Eric Decker one would say that they had a decent chance this season. Yikes!

Now that we have five weeks of football to gauge our team, we can look back at our rebuilding process for those that used my offseason rebuild article. For those who might be thinking about starting their rebuild this year, you can look to parts 1 and 2 on the basic fundamentals. In part three we are going to look at evaluating our team as it is right now and what to do with the rest of the 2016 season.

They Are Who We Thought They Were

Seasonal records are a hard stat to judge a fantasy team by since they have no way to defend their scores. One may have their best statistical output any given week only to have it be counted as an “L” due to what we will call the “Julio effect.” Therefore, looking at a team’s weekly points for and against will offer a greater understanding of who they really are. For teams that are 4-1 or 3-2, are you winning games against teams that are weaker? Are your points for significantly lower the other teams that have strong records? For teams that are 2-3 or 1-4, have you been playing against the weekly high scorers? Are your “points for” still competitive with the teams at the top of the standings? RSO has a great tool built right into the standings page to measure exactly how your team is against the rest of your league. If you go to Standings, then Breakdown, the site gives you an overall record against each opponent for every week. If you really want to have a record to brag about to your league mates then this is the one that you should be using. For instance, I am 3-2 in one of my leagues where I thought I had one of the strongest teams. When I look at the breakdown records it shows that against all opponents each week I have a 49-6 record as well as the highest points for. This indicates to me that I have had two games where my opponents had gangbuster weeks and I shouldn’t be concerned. You need to look at each of your teams as it pertains to the rest of its league and answer these questions before making any moves involving pushing ahead or selling the team this season.

How to Move Forward

Now that there is a guide for whether you are likely in or out this season you can start to plan ahead for the next 8-9 weeks before the playoffs. Let’s start with the contenders. If you are in- go ALL in. Find the good players on teams that are well behind the 8 ball and start making offers. Ideally, you would want to look for guys that are on one year/final season deals or ones that are older veterans and are not likely to be in that owner’s future plans. Don’t try and low ball them with players they won’t use. This won’t happen in an experienced league. Instead offer rookies, picks or longer contract players that will hold value into 2017. A perfectly reasonable starting point for a contending team to offer a rebuilder would be Derrick Henry and a 2017 1^st for Le’Veon Bell.

For everyone else, look to the players that still have strong value in your line-up and start shopping them around. The worst thing is waiting until after the other rebuilders flood the market with usable talent to fill the needs of the few contenders. Or worse you could be waiting to see if you have a chance and then your player gets injured; not only crushing your chances of winning but also decreasing their value in a trade. In season is the best time to acquire picks because most owners are focused on winning, and they are willing to put future rewards on hold. While not the opposite of contenders, rebuilding owners should target: draft picks, injured/slumping players, and risk/reward contracts. Depending on the length of the rebuild or available cap space a fourth player to target would be the bad contract players.

Ultimately your goal for this season is to hold as many draft picks as possible, clear all cap space of players that hold their maximum trade value and acquire talent that might be useful in the next year or two. The big thing to take away from here is that when shopping players don’t ask for players that are a key part of that team’s starting line-up unless you are giving up something better. A great example would be to offer players that have already had their byes so the new owner can just plug-and-play them for the rest of the season. Meaning shares of Ryan Mathews, Jamaal Charles, Doug Baldwin, Jeremy Maclin, Eddie Lacy, and Drew Brees are easy selling points to a contender for a 2^nd round pick and a project player.

Hopefully, I have helped lay the groundwork for what should be a busy month of buying and selling players. If you complete any big trades using this strategy make sure to tweet @RealitySportsOn to have yourself featured in our trades of the week. Also, if you have any questions about whether an offer is good enough make be sure to ask any of the RSO writers on their thoughts.

More Analysis by Nick Andrews