IDP Start/Sit: Week 16
Hello and welcome to all you first-round bye people and champions of the first round. With only two weeks left in the fantasy football playoffs, things are sure to be intense, stressful, and hopefully, in the end, very successful for you. So let’s find those IDPs we want in a lineup, and those, we might not, for week 16.
Week 15 Recap
DL:
Start: Greg Rousseau (1 solo, 1 assist, TFL, 0.5 sack, 2 QB hits) 👍
Sit: Boye Mafe (1 solo, 1 PD) 👍
LB:
Start: Josey Jewell (7 solos, 2 assists) 👍 – Good tackle performance, nothing in the pass rush department though
Sit: David Mayo (Did not get the anticipated start) 👎
DB:
Start: Vonn Bell (1 solo, 1 assist) 👎
Sit: Trevon Moehrig (1 assist) 👍
Week 16 Starts & Sits
START: Jonathan Allen, Washington Commanders, DL42 (DT10)
Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne are the core of this line after Montez Sweat and Chase Young were shipped off at the trade deadline earlier this year. He has not let that slow him as he has been a strong contributor all season. This shows in his analytics so far this season, with his 15.5% win rate which is 7th among all interior defenders while also delivering 9.13% pressure rate, which is very impressive from an interior defender. While the Commanders have been known for their lack of offensive line play and sacks allowed, there is another team that is right there with them and it is the New York Jets, whom the Commanders happen to play! The Jets have allowed 63 sacks over the 14 games with the majority coming through the interior of that offensive line, meaning fire up Jonathan Allen this week.
SIT: Kayvon Thibadeaux, New York Giants, DL40 (ED31)
Kayvon Thibadeux has really delivered in his sophomore campaign with 13 total sacks already this season. However, his production has been a significant over production, based on the number of pressures he has produced. With only 37 pressures on the season, I would anticipate his sack total to be close to 6.5, not 13. And this has shown in some of his weekly production as well, with 4 games this season with zero pressures compiled while still getting at least 18 pass rush snaps in each of those games. His ability to disappear from games so far this year, combined with a matchup against an Eagles offensive line that has allowed some of the lowest sack conversion rate, Thibadeux is likely in for another one of those low output weeks.
START: Devin Lloyd, Jacksonville Jaguars, LB23
Devin Lloyd has taken a rough end to his rookie season where he lost starts and snaps to Chad Muma. Now, he has had a very strong sophomore season and the last 5 games of his have been amazing! 54 total tackles over the last 5 games with 32 coming in run defense and the other 22 in coverage. This amazing tackle floor will be reinforced with Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their strong usage of their backfield, specifically Rachaad White. White has 66 carries and 9 targets over the last 3 weeks and they will not slow down in their usage of the backfield, and Lloyd will be able to take advantage of this with his play-making.
SIT: Nicholas Morrow, Philadelphia Eagles, LB41
Nicholas Morrow seems to be the last linebacker standing in Philadelphia. Nakobe Dean lost to injury, Zach Cunningham injured, Christian Elliss cut, and now Shaq Leonard is the new guy alongside him. Nicholas Morrow is great at getting out on to the field and making sure things are squared away from an NFL perspective, but for his IDP production, he is very average. He is a career 10% tackle efficiency and is on that exact same track this season. He has one boom performance where he compiled 3 sacks in one game and with only 5 other pressures to show for outside of that one performance. Also, the utilization of more 3 safeties as Matt Patricia is the new defensive play caller will likely limit his ability to make plays in coverage as well. And for week 16, they get division rival, the New York Giants and Tommy DeVito. And the Giants’ offense has shown its own inefficiencies and it is shows in their 31st ranked 55.3 plays ran by the offense over the last 3 games. So for Morrow, 10% efficiency over 55 plays, doesn’t give us a great tackle floor to rely on this week.
START: Trenton Thompson, Pittsburgh Steelers, DB72 (S51)
Trenton Thompson has stepped in several times throughout the season as the backup safety. However, he will be asked to permanently step up with news of Damontae Kazee’s recent suspension. Thompson has done an admirable job while filling in those times this season. In the three games where has played 40+ snaps this season, he has delivered 9.5%, 10.34%, and 11.76% tackle efficiency. Most notably, in week 15, he took 32 of his 51 snaps in the box, too. While this is a small sample and we don’t want to take away too much, this combined with his former performances when given the volume, gives me confidence for week 16 where the Steelers take on the Bengals. The Bengals offer a very average matchup in terms of safety production for IDP scoring and tackles, but the biggest benefit might come from the play of the Steelers’ offense and its recent inability to sustain drives. And the uncertainty around Kenny Pickett only adds to this at this time.
SIT: Rayshawn Jenkins, Jacksonville Jaguars, DB17 (S17)
Rayshawn Jenkins is coming off a huge performance in week 1 of the fantasy playoffs, but this is not something we have been able to comfortably rely on him, even with some of the best box usage of any safety (2nd with 398 box snaps). He still comes in with a slightly below-average tackle efficiency for a safety, even given his ideal usage, at 8.95%. Jenkins has also under-delivered in splash plays beyond tackles. He recorded his first sack on his 6th pressure, which is about the expected rate. He also has 5 PDs and 2 interceptions on the season whic align with what he has done most seasons, so to consistently rely on more big plays is not likely. This week Jacksonville takes on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and they are allowing just 9 tackles to the safety position over the last 3 weeks, which leaves a very small pie from which Jenkins can pull from.
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