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Phase 1 Free Agency Grades

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By Bernard Faller

Updated: March 29th 2018

The first phase of free agency got off to an explosive start with teams filling needs across the spectrum.  While all of the players fill roles for their new teams, not all of the deals are created equally.  I grade the most fantasy relevant deals looking at their prospective uses and what they mean for your RSO team.

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins

Kirk Cousins lands with one of the best teams in the league in about the best case scenario for Cousins.  The wide receivers and tight ends are arguably better as a group when compared to Washington’s core last season and the offensive line, while likely not better, is bound to be healthier.  New offensive coordinator John DeFilippo is somewhat of an unknown as he only has one stop as coordinator in the NFL and that was with a bad 2015 Cleveland team.  He spent the rest of his professional career primarily as a quarterback coach which is also good for the former Washington quarterback.  Cousins remains in the low-end QB1 conversation.

Grade: B.  Minnesota understands the small championship window for a team based on a dominant defense and went all-in for a quarterback upgrade to maximize their chances during that stretch.  The deal gets dinged for giving a good, but not great, quarterback a practically fully guaranteed top-of-market 3 year/ $84 million contract. The move necessarily limits contract extension options for other star Minnesota players over the next few years.

Drew Brees

Brees technically merited free agent status but there was little question he would resign with New Orleans.  The 39 year old still is one of the best in the business finishing with his best efficiency numbers in seven years and the best completion percentage of his career.  The raw numbers were down a bit thanks to a hugely improved defense and a stellar run game last year.  Brees remains as a solid fantasy QB1 but the video game numbers in the past might be out of reach due to the lower expected volume from better surrounding circumstances.

Grade: A.  Resigning Brees, the face of the New Orleans franchise, was a near necessity for a team in title contention.  Losing the longtime quarterback also would have been a public relations nightmare for both parties.  Brees even bought into giving the Saints a hometown discount.

Others of Note

Sam Bradford transitions to an Arizona team also in transition with a new coaching staff.  The match is not ideal with an immobile, fragile Bradford playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league.  This might be a replay of his 2016 season with lots of short routes and dump-offs for the time he remains healthy.  Case Keenum goes to Denver for a team more on the down-slope than they want to admit.  The defense, while still good, is not what it once was and there is little speed from the offensive skill players.  Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater will fight for reps on the rebuilding New York Jets.  All of these quarterbacks might show up on the bottom-tier QB2 radar for superflex/2QB leagues but, being on teams who possibly draft a long-term answer at quarterback, also could be replaced later in the season depending on circumstances.

Running Backs

Jerick McKinnon

Jerick McKinnon and Dion Lewis were the two highest paid free agent running backs in total contract value and guarantees.  Let that fact sink in for a minute.  Free agency really showed what direction the running back position is headed toward.  NFL teams clearly value multi-dimensional running backs capable of significant contributions in the passing game.  McKinnon’s stock (and hype) rockets upward in San Francisco under Kyle Shanahan.  It is a better scheme fit for the athletic phenom with more outside run plays and heavy pass game utilization.  Additionally, the depth chart below McKinnon is only led by an undersized undrafted free agent, Matt Breida. He will not be a traditional “bell cow” running back dominating touches, but lock in McKinnon as an RB2 for a potentially explosive offensive with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback.

Grade: B+.  This is a terrific fit and a position of need but at a big cost (4 year/ $30 million) for a running back who will not take the large majority of touches.  A closer look at the deal and San Francisco’s cap situation diminishes those concerns somewhat.  The 49ers wealth of cap space allowed a front-loaded contract with minimal commitments and more reasonable cap hits following 2018.

Dion Lewis

New Titans offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur comes from the Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay coaching tree.  This means an emphasis on dual-threat running backs.  Lewis is very good as a runner and displays exceptional quickness running routes. As a bonus, he is electric with the ball in his hands out of the backfield.  His main issue has always been his susceptibility to injury.  He maintained his health last season and was one of the better backs in the league.  He moves to another solid run-blocking offensive line.  I rank him as low-end RB2/Flex play currently.

What this move really does is limit fellow running back Derrick Henry’s ceiling.  Most people understood Tennessee would, at a minimum, bring in a significant third down back given Henry’s big deficiencies in the pass game.  Lewis provides a lot more than that and will be used throughout the game in multiple different situations.  Henry’s touch share becomes far more game script dependent with Lewis in the mix.

Grade: A-.  While his 4 year/$19.8 million contract is the second highest free agent deal given out, it is still a minimal portion of team cap space like most other running back contracts.  Lewis provides the “combo” back which is a much better fit in this offense and something that was not on the Titans’ roster before.  He will not be depended on to take a full load, which should help health concerns, but will be a great piece for what LaFleur wants to do on offense.

Others of Note

Carlos Hyde moves to Cleveland where he takes the place of Isaiah Crowell.  He is a better runner but also one of the worst receivers in the NFL out of the backfield.  His receiving work, which were largely a result of having a rookie quarterback at the helm, likely dramatically decreases with Duke Johnson as a true weapon out of the backfield.  Hyde downgrades to a borderline RB2.  Speaking of Crowell, he departs to the Jets where he continues his rushing down role.  The Jets have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and probably play from behind a lot next season.  His fantasy prospects remain similar to what they were in Cleveland as a borderline RB3/4.  Rex Burkhead resigned with New England and is joined by former Bengals running mate Jeremy Hill.  The Patriots backfield remains a mess with James White siphoning off receiving work and Mike Gillislee possibly in the mix.  Still, there is massive touchdown upside in this offense and a large target share for running backs.  Burkhead and Hill both make for cheap gambles on a great offense.

Wide Receivers

Sammy Watkins

Maybe no other team’s skill players embrace the strength of their quarterback better than Kansas City.  Watkins gives new quarterback Patrick Mahomes another target capable of stretching defenses and creating big plays.  While this move undoubted should help the offense, what this means for Watkins fantasy value is far sketchier.  The former fourth overall pick has been utilized primarily as a deep threat to this point in his career.  Will he see much increased volume on a team with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce as the top incumbents and essentially a rookie quarterback?  I put him in the WR3 mix although one with a larger range of outcomes and more upside than others in this range.

Grade: C-.  Watkins’ strengths should mesh well with Mahomes but this signing is an absolutely massive commitment to a player with an unknown role in the offense.  Watkins immediately becomes the fourth highest paid wide receiver in average salary for the entire NFL.  This is top of the league receiver money for a player who could conceivably be 3rd on his team in targets.  His big cap hits in future years could also produce difficult roster decisions for the Chiefs.

Allen Robinson

Robinson produced one great season and a few middling ones in Jacksonville.  How much of that is due to the quarterback situation remains to be seen.  It is troubling Jacksonville felt more comfortable signing Marquise Lee and Donte Moncrief to big contracts rather than tagging or resigning Robinson.  His best skill is corralling contested boundary throws which is not the type of throw new quarterback Mitch Trubisky has shown a penchant for.  With that being said, he should still slot in immediately as Trubisky’s top target.  Robinson ranks as a low-end WR2 for what will likely be a low-volume passing attack.

Grade: B.  Chicago needed receiving weapons in the worst way and landed one of the top available at an average of $14 million for 3 years.  Robinson is an expensive gamble based on his injury history and inconsistent production but a risk worth taking for a team with plenty of cap space and little else on the roster.

Others of Note

Paul Richardson fills the need for a speedy deep threat in Washington receiving a big five year deal in the process.  The afore-mentioned Donte Moncrief swindled a fully guaranteed contract of almost $10 million (plus incentives) in 2018 from Jacksonville making him the third highest paid wide receiver in free agency and top-20 in average salary among all wideouts.  This was easily one of the worst skill-position contracts given out in free agency on a player who will fight for playing time but is paid like a top receiver.  Marquise Lee stays in WR3/WR4 mix on Jacksonville’s low-volume passing attack.  Miami dumped Jarvis Landry’s big franchise tag contract on Cleveland only to spend a combined $36 million in five years on Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola to fight for slot and WR2 reps with incumbent Kenny Stills.

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham

The Seattle experience was not kind for Jimmy Graham.  He never really fit in for what the Seahawks wanted from him when he was healthy and it was painful watching Graham following his patellar injury.  Unfortunately he lost the burst and speed which made him one of the most dangerous receiving weapons in the league with New Orleans.  His great size and hands still let him maintain a role as a significant short-area threat.  The lack of options at tight end puts Graham in the borderline TE1 mix on a potentially explosive Green Bay offense.

Grade: D.  This is an odd fit as Green Bay never utilized the tight end position much during Aaron Rodgers’ reign as quarterback.  Graham can still be a useful role player but clearly is not the type of game changer the Packers invested in.  Green Bay paid for the Graham of five years ago with a contract that makes him the highest paid tight end in average salary for the NFL today.

Trey Burton

Some players make a lot of money on the open market based on a few games filling in for starters.  Trey Burton is this year’s reincarnation after scoring a 4 year/ $32 million contract from the Bears which places Burton as one of the highest paid tight ends in the league.  What role Chicago has in mind for Burton is still a question.  Burton is not big enough to fill the primary tight end spot.  While a good receiver for a tight end, he also is not the type of difference-making receiving weapon that warrants being on the field consistently despite his blocking deficiencies.  Burton slides in the very broad TE2 territory for fantasy purposes.

Grade: D+.  This move seems like a desperation play from a team in bad need of receiving help.  Burton makes for a nice number two receiving tight end for a team but is paid like one of the best tight ends in the league.  There could be some untapped potential here but Chicago paid dearly on that gamble.

Others of Note

Detroit unceremoniously released Eric Ebron after four disappointing years.  He joins Jack Doyle in what could be a sneaky good spot with Andrew Luck returning and a lack of pass catchers signed for the Colts.  Perennially injured Tyler Eifert resigned a single year contract in Cincinnati. Health will be the key issue as always for the former first rounder who has TE1 upside when in the lineup.  Austin Seferian-Jenkins moves to Jacksonville in a low-upside passing attack.  The former Jet has not eclipsed 360 yards in a season and is nothing but TE flier for fantasy purposes.

Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

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Preseason Watch List

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By Nick Andrews

Updated: September 1st 2016

Preseason games have started and many player hype trains have already left the station. Some names are familiar while others are getting their first exposure as exciting rookies. I have put together a collection of players that are generating buzz in the fantasy community and some suggestions on what you should be doing with them. Because this is RSO and there is a dollar sign attached to every player I will also offer an opinion on whether you should just bid the minimum or offer above.

Christine Michael

Christine MichaelI might as well start with everyone’s favorite preseason darling. The story is the same; a freak athlete who has the potential to be an RB1 on a team that has historically run the ball with authority. The big difference this year is that we have now seen what Michael can do in a meaningful game as he was usable in the final weeks of the regular season and playoffs. He is also in a more open backfield that doesn’t feature Marshawn Lynch. It is, however, a very large backfield that features four capable runners (Rawls, Prosise, Collins, Michael). While I don’t like owning any one of these backs at a large cost, I would take the most cost-effective one  in the hopes that they may become the lead back by mid-season.

Verdict: Add Michael from the waiver wire for the minimum. If already owned don’t offer more than low, conditional picks.

Dak Prescott

Dak PrescottFor all you Cowboys fans and Dez Bryant owners, you must be feeling a whole lot better about the future of the team post Tony Romo. Prescott has done nothing but look like a draft steal the first two games of the preseason with five touchdowns in the air and two on the ground. For those of you that took Prescott as a late 3rd or 4th round selection, you have one serious bargaining chip in your back pocket for trades right now. Unfortunately, for most others, he went undrafted in both your rookie and auction draft and with how RSO is setup you cannot add a waiver player for multiple years. Therefore, there is little value in adding Prescott this season unless Tony Romo goes down with an injury.

Verdict: Hold off on adding Prescott till next year’s auction. If Romo should go down then feel free to offer more than the minimum to him as his mobility at the position could make him a viable QB2 option.

**Editor’s Note** With the recent injury to Tony Romo which will likely sideline him for 8-10 weeks Prescott is now a must add if you are shaky at the QB position or are in a 2QB league. If you have the room to roster him he also may be a short term solution to offer to those with Teddy Bridgewater or Tony Romo going down.

Tajae Sharpe

Tajae SharpeWow, has Sharpe looked, well, sharp! The rookie WR out of UMASS flew under the radar of many drafters in May and June and was likely a flyer pick in the 3rd round. Anybody who wants to cash out right now could probably fetch a 1st before he has even played his first game. The Titans sent away the troubled Green-Beckham making Sharpe and Rishard Matthews the outside receivers with Kendall Wright in the slot. Coaches have said they want to run, run and run the ball, but for a team that only won two games last year the game script may force the Titans to pass more often than not late in games. The problem with Sharpe right now though is just the cost to acquire. If he wasn’t already drafted then he has definitely been added from the waiver wire by now and is therefore rostered by someone in your league.

Verdict: If you drafted Sharpe or won the race to wire pat yourself on the back and just hold him to see what he can actually do. If you are looking to acquire him don’t get carried away with what your offering as he still has yet to play a meaningful NFL game. Moving a 2nd and a WR3 would be at my peak trade value IF he’s locked into a low rookie contract for multiple years.

New England’s Backfield

Patriots BackfieldMany expected the Patriots to add one of the RBs from this year’s class but they passed, maybe deferring to the stronger 2017 class. So where does that leave the backfield for 2016? Dion Lewis was a nice surprise that fit well with Tom Brady’s quick release passing offense last season. James White will look to take the same role in the early parts of this season while Lewis is sidelined after another knee surgery. LeGarrette Blount was brought back (after much delay) for another year as the bulldozing, between the tackles, redzone back. Bolden is still there and Tyler Gaffney has looked okay in preseason work against 2nd and 3rd string players. So is there any value in the Pats backfield, and who’s the guy to own?

Verdict: For now White and Blount are the players to own but don’t expect any consistency in terms of an RB2 floor. The best bet would be to actually hold any RBs that are on the fringe of their own rosters that may be a late preseason trade candidate for the Patriots.

Make sure to keep your eyes on the final two weeks as players are cut (or traded) and depth charts are solidified. If you have any questions or want to ask the RSO team about trades make sure to use #RSOtrades.

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Top 5 Remaining Offseason ?s

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By Matt Goodwin

Updated: June 7th 2016

In the Zone

As the offseason has progressed, there have been some storylines that have continued to linger and others that have been new developments. There are fantasy implications all abound for all of these questions. Here are my top five remaining questions (in no particular order) that will alter the mindset of how players in these situations are viewed. I’m not including Tom Brady’s four-game suspension because the Patriots will be able to game plan for it if it sticks.

1) Ryan Fitzpatrick’s Contract Situation

The New York Jets, according to Spotrac, have only $3.1 million of remaining cap space for its Top 51 players. That provides an interesting conundrum on bringing back Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is coming off a career season with 3,905 yards passing and 31 touchdowns against 15 interceptions.

These numbers far exceed prior contributions from the signal-caller, yet Fitzpatrick only completed 59.6% of his passes last season and had one 300 yard game while the team narrowly missed the playoffs. Fitzpatrick seems to be wanting $12 million a year, possibly on a one year deal, which doesn’t appease the Jets who want to spread out the salary over time for cap purposes.

While the Jets were clearly a better team last year with Fitzpatrick at the helm, how much of that is attributable to a solid ground game and more importantly, renaissance man Brandon Marshall? I’d say a lot. Even with bolstering its offensive line with the trade for left tackle Ryan Clady and the big free agent signing of versatile running back Matt Forte, giving the quarterback the most amount of talent he’s ever had around him by far.

Geno Smith hasn’t effectively been a game manager, but hasn’t really been given the opportunity since the unfortunate broken jaw incident that led to Fitzpatrick starting the season and catching fire. Smith is the starter in OTA’s in Fitzpatrick’s absence and is a free agent in 2017. It would behoove the Jets to see what they have in Smith this year, especially if Fitzpatrick continues to hold out for what he believes he deserves.

What does all this mean for fantasy football? Not much, really. Marshall and fellow wide receiver Eric Decker have performed well no matter who their quarterback is, even if they are showing solidarity for Fitzpatrick. I watched Fitzpatrick frequently miss connections with Decker plenty last season and Decker does have a 200 yard game on his resume with Smith as quarterback. Forte also performed well in Chicago, even at a greater clip without Jay Cutler.

That’s your main concern, unless you are a Jets fan. Let’s face it- you aren’t throwing eight figures at Fitz in your auction or are considering him as a QB2 for any of your leagues.

Conclusion: Proceed as you were. Nothing to see here, people.

2) Sammy Watkins’ Injured Foot

It certainly came out of left field last month when it was announced that third-year wide receiver Sammy Watkins had foot surgery in April. This is the same surgery that impacted Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, and Julian Edelman. The big question that fantasy owners are dying to know is whether Watkins will be back in time for the regular season.

From a Reality Sports Online perspective, and I’ve said this on the record on Twitter, this Watkins news makes his price that much more reasonable and I’d be in buy mode while he’s cheaper. There are a few buckets of owners of Watkins in leagues. First, you have those who have Watkins on a rookie deal, likely around $6.0 million a year currently. That is a steal for a potential top 10 fantasy wideout for the next two years. Those who entered leagues later may have a heftier price tag on Watkins, but if it is anything under $20 million a season, that could be value.

As for me, I traded my final contract year of Randall Cobb (1 year remaining, $17.4 million) for Watkins (2016: $6.4 million, 2017: $7.0 million) and Matthew Stafford (1 year remaining $14.0 million). Basically, while I like Cobb’s potential efficiency to increase this year with the return of Jordy Nelson, I think Watkins ceiling is massive and a cheap price. Stafford is likely a cheap trade or cap casualty as I have Russell Wilson as my starter on a cheaper deal, but that to me was a small price to pay to get a potential superstar (which no doubt Cobb has been as well at times).

The news on Watkins having a screw inserted and prior history with Bryant rushing back and a subsequent Edelman surgery are troubling, but the Bills know what they have in Watkins and won’t make him take unnecessary training camp reps to risk not being ready for the regular season. Even if he starts slowly the first two weeks, his back half of 2015 was dominant on a team that only threw the ball more than 30 times in half of the final eight games.

How dominant you ask-try 41 catches for 732 yards and 6 touchdowns in the final eight games, including four 100 yard games. In fact, in that stretch, when Watkins was targeted 10 or more times, his worst game was 5 catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. Further, that’s on a run-oriented team and the team didn’t bring much in the help department for quarterback Tyrod Taylor in the passing game.

Lastly, in the event I haven’t convinced you on Watkins yet, he’s got a potential fantasy playoff slate against Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Miami, all at home in Weeks 14-16 and the Raiders and Jags immediately prior.

Conclusion: Not concerned currently, but pay attention to the news. If you have Watkins, you’re probably holding him and expecting big things. If you have someone who is losing faith on him in your league, pounce on that, especially if the price is right.

3) The Josh Gordon Saga-Will It Continue?

By now you know the narrative about Josh Gordon. Incredibly talented, but can’t stay out of trouble. Those of you who still own him at an average of 1.7 remaining years and $9.3 million remaining contract are sincerely hoping Gordon can put his past (and Johnny Manziel) behind him to tear it up on the gridiron again.

That picture remains unclear, but there is some optimism that when August rolls around, Gordon can be clean and reinstated. The question then is what do the Browns do with him? He certainly would like nice in an all Baylor connection with Robert Griffin III and rookie #1 pick Corey Coleman (who I really like as a Top 3 rookie draft get), but at the same time Browns coach Hue Jackson is emphasizing character and the team is stockpiling Moneyball draft picks for the future.

Conclusion: Wait and see. If you have Gordon at an annual average of 1.7 years remaining and a little over $9.0 million left on his contract, just hope he hits the field, because if he does, he’ll produce anywhere. He still has top five wide receiver potential at close to bye week replacement pricing.

4) Is This the Year to Go Cheap at Quarterback?

Given the popularity of streaming quarterbacks in weekly redraft leagues and similar low dollar values in some daily games, a popular strategy that is now emerging in Reality Sports Online leagues is to spend as little as possible on your starting quarterback. The theory, as adopted by Reality Sports Online’s own Stephen Wendell with a quarterback like Derek Carr is simple: there are only 10-12 starting quarterbacks in each league, so don’t overpay for one while your budget can be used on positions that may require more cap space.

If any a year to adopt this strategy, 2016 seems like a prime one with quarterbacks like Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston in their second year of rookie deals which typically found them as late first or early second round picks in 2015. The same holds true for Carr and fellow third year quarterback Blake Bortles. Both third year signal-callers have plenty of weapons. Heck, even Andy Dalton was playing like a top five quarterback until he got injured last season.

With quarterbacks like Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, and Eli Manning always a possibility to produce, unless quarterback is a position that derives more value in your leagues, it might be smart to not go crazy trying to sign the Aaron Rodgers types for $25 million when one of these quarterbacks can be had for $5 million or less.

Conclusion: 2016 seems like the first RSO league year where the cheap quarterback may really derive an advantage. I’m a firm believer in prime signal callers in the fantasy playoffs, someone you are sure will produce solid numbers even on a bad day. But if you can load up at receiver and get the right running backs under contract, this strategy is an interesting one.

5) Arian Foster: Whose Fantasy Season is he Going to Screw Up?

It is somewhat insane that Arian Foster remains unsigned, but it seems like he wouldn’t have it any other way. He’s close to having a clean bill of health and there are definitely a few potentially needy teams still lurking. Foster likely is looking at a $3-4 million deal with some incentives that could be achieved if he’s healthy and performs well.

To me, the big question isn’t where Foster signs, but which current fantasy starter he’s going to destroy value for?

First off, if you are still holding Foster thinking he may be the same running back he was on Houston when healthy, please temper your expectations. He’s a very accomplished runner with excellent pass catching ability and a nose for the end zone. That’s where he holds the biggest value to teams. I don’t think teams are looking at him to be their bell-cow at this point in virtually any scenario.

I’d expect him to sign with the Miami Dolphins and if he does, Jay Ajayi owners will not be happy. Washington remains a good possibility and they’ve built up a pretty nice offense at this point. Put Foster in a committee and give him pass catching and goal-line responsibilities and he’ll have almost as much fantasy value on efficiency and fresh legs than he did as the featured back on the Texans. I personally don’t buy the New England hype-Dion Lewis is younger, coming off an easier injury to recover from, and under a fairly good contract.

Conclusion: If you haven’t cut Foster yet, hang on and see where this next month takes him. I wouldn’t overpay for him as a handcuff, but I’ve come around on him if he’s in a good situation and used well (10-12 touches a game), he could have Danny Woodhead like PPR fantasy value. If you are holding Ajayi or were hoping that Matt Jones was about to break out this year, get nervous, but wait to see what happens.

Matt Goodwin is entering his third season as a writer for Reality Sports Online and is in year four of his main league. He also contributes for numberFire. He is an avid sports fan from Cleveland, Ohio who would count a championship for a Cleveland major sports team a close second behind getting married to his wife Renee and the births of his children, Jory (6 year old son) and Lainie (18 month old daughter). Matt loves mid 90’s hip-hop, playing pick-up hoops, traveling, Ohio State football and Arizona basketball, watching Glengarry Glen Ross for the millionth time and being outside the few months it doesn’t rain in Seattle where he lives. He can be found on Twitter @mattgoody2 and hopes you continue to read his In the Zone articles.

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Ups and Downs of the RSO Playoffs

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By Matt Goodwin

Updated: December 24th 2015

golden-tate-nfl-new-orleans-saints-detroit-lions-850x560

They say it is sometimes better to be lucky than good. To win Reality Sports Online league titles, it seems like you have to be a bit of both. Hit on your rookie draft picks, don’t spend big dollars on busts and get your multi-year deals right, don’t have player injuries and then have it all align in the playoffs.

So, after being in my main league for three years and the Writers League for two years, I can honestly say I haven’t won a championship and am still after that holy grail. As someone who is their own worst critic, and who writes strategy pieces for the website, that makes me feel like a little bit of a fraud. I know I’m beating myself up on this, but let me share my two league circumstances with you this year.

I welcome any of you who suffered a similar loss to Tweet me or contact me as some form of therapy. I have writing about this experience as my therapy, so let me be the one you vent to after reading this if you are in the same boat as me.

First, I’ll start with my Writers League with folks who I write with at Reality Sports Online and numberFire mainly (some have moved onto other sites like Rotoworld and ESPN). I finished 11-2 in the regular season with the highest scoring team by far. That earned me the #2 seed and a matchup against my friend @GrahamBarfield, the #3 seed in the league, while 12-1 #1 Seed @LeoHowell8 played upstart first-year owner and Baylor Law Professor and late summer league addition #4 seed (brought in via Twitter to compete against writers) @RoryRyan in the other playoff matchup.

Buoyed all season by a Tom Brady/Rob Gronkowski stack, Devonta Freeman and Eric Decker, my team was stacked and I have most of these players (and Todd Gurley, Demaryius Thomas) for several more years. In round one however, I went into Monday Night Football with a 16 point lead and Graham having Lamar Miller remaining. Miller scored two touchdowns by halftime and my highest-scoring team in the league (and second highest among 10 teams that week) was toast.

On the other side, Howell, who has lost exactly two regular season games in two years in the league, put up a dud and lost to Ryan, who inherited one of the worst teams in the league mid-summer, was awarded T.Y. Hilton by the league on a two year, $40.0 million contract and left to his own devices to turn the rest around. He slid into the playoffs behind some good moves and then, wouldn’t you know it, won the whole thing while Howell and I put up very high totals in the third place game.

Rory Ryan Shocks the Writers League

Basically, Ryan capitalized on being healthy and opportunistic,  and a few solid moves. Here’s his summary of what lead to his success (in his words):

“As I looked around the locker room before the championship match, I decided we needed to do something unusual. We went around the room and introduced ourselves–as six of the ten starters were waiver-wire pickups. As I drove my family back from the Polar Express train ride during Monday’s finale, I kept getting SiriusXM updates that were good. Then better. Then — victory. To say the team I inherited was in “rebuilding mode” would be an understatement. But we were able to scrape out just enough wins and ride a whole lot of luck to the title. “

“Although (to quote Nuke Laloosh) “winning is like . . . so much better than losing,” the year was great either way. As I told folks on social media, it was fun playing against the guys whose advice I use when setting my lineups in other leagues. And the RSO format really does make even traditional dynasty leagues seem primitive. The contracts, waivers, salary cap, etc., make up the way fantasy ought to be played. “
“The opportunity to play this format against these guys was too much to pass up — despite my (formerly) firm rules against not playing in leagues with kickers, defenses (if I can help it), and true decimal scoring. But I’m still looking forward to next year, where hopefully my roster will be slightly more settled. “

“So what was my strategy? When I entered the auction, there were few (no) stars and plenty of money. So prices were inflated. I went after some grinders who I’d always feel OK inserting into the lineup: Jonathan Stewart, Frank Gore, and Doug Martin (didn’t get him). But I spent little money. Instead, I saved most of my cap room, knowing that injuries and sleepers would emerge, and I would have the big bankroll. DeAngelo Williams, Danny Amendola, Antonio Gates, Dion Lewis, and Zach Miller all played important roles during the season.

“As for the future — we will see if my strategy works. Since there were no stars to lock down, I went after a group of guys who I thought were more talented than their projections, hoping that at least one of them ends up in an ideal situation. The prices are low enough that hitting 1/3 and cutting the other two will more than pay for itself in savings, despite the cap penalty, as I’ll avoid waiting for the player to demonstrate the market value. So, Golden Tate, Torrey Smith, and Markus Wheaton — please answer the phone if the Patriots call.”

A Rivalry Is Continued in Reality Sports Online

Let me set the stage for you a bit with some history. My best friend since our freshman year at Miami University, @MarkPesavento and I have been in fantasy football leagues together since 1996. He is my biggest rival and our fantasy matchups have quite a history of craziness as you can imagine for anyone playing against each other for that long. Since he works in sports and I don’t, there is an extra layer of who is the smarter football mind is between the two of us.

With that in mind, Mark and I left an ESPN keeper league a few years ago in search of something bigger, something more challenging that was fully customizable. As part of his work at the time, he discovered Reality Sports Online and we’ve been hooked ever since. Together we are co-commissioners of the Not Quite Gentlemen’s League, a super-customized PPR league with 12 teams and lineups consisting of only one required running back, three flex positions, and where turnovers are heavily punished (-5 points for interceptions, fumbles) and the 5th and 6th playoff seeds are determined solely based on total points scored.
RSO Co-Founder and Chief Operating Office Stephen Wendell is now in our league too, which adds to the competitiveness. Pesavento finished first overall at 11-2 with the highest point total (he won the league in 2014), newcomer Wendell finished 9-5 and was the #2 seed. I was the second highest scoring team, but finished 7-6 and got the #5 overall seed.

My high-scoring team proved no fluke in the opening round of the playoffs, winning 321.54-179.99 and a Week 15 rematch with Pesavento, who I was 0-2 against on the season, loomed.

Setting the Stage-Week 12

First, though, let me take you back to Week 12 where Pesavento and I squared off in an epic battle. He staked to an early lead behind Odell Beckham Jr., Philip Rivers, and Spencer Ware that seemed insurmountable at the time. Then late in the late games, my quarterback Russell Wilson hooked up with Doug Baldwin for an 80 yard touchdown, en route to a 72 point fantasy performance.

I was close going into the Sunday night game where I had Rob Gronkowski and the Patriots DST to his Broncos DST. Behind a Gronk touchdown and subsequent Gronk-spike and an inteception by the Patriots D, I staked out to a fairly decent lead (like 20 points). As the clock turned to the 4th quarter, I instant messaged Pesavento saying this game seems like it is over.

And then the collapse happened. The Patriots muffed a punt, Denver’s running game started picking up steam and the Patriots were bleeding out yardage allowed and points scored. The game was getting much closer. All I needed was another Gronk catch and I’d be fine.

Then Gronk got called for offensive pass interference on a big catch that was nullified. A few plays later, then he was carted off with a knee injury. So my happiness of likely winning the game turned into losing my key league advantage (and someone I’d like to franchise tag on a good deal for 2016) for the season, and potentially this game as well.

The Broncos scored to take the lead and all I then needed (while I was frantically worried about Gronk’s health for the rest of the season) was the game not to go to overtime. Well, we all know Stephen Gostkowski is fantasy gold and the game went to overtime. In overtime, as long as the Broncos didn’t score a touchdown, I’d win.

I think you know the rest. C.J. Anderson scored on a 48 yard touchdown scamper to end the game and Pesavento beat me by .25 points, continuing a series of close calls in recent match-ups.

The Worst Possible Way To Lose?

Heading into the Week 15 playoff matchup of the two highest scoring teams in the league, Pesavento was favored, yet he had some of his best players with tough matchups (Beckham Jr vs CAR, Antonio Brown vs. DEN DST, DEN DST at PIT) while mine on paper seemed favorable (A.J. Green @SF, Wilson vs. CLE, Devonta Freeman @JAX, Gronkowski vs. TEN, NE DST vs. TEN).

I staked out to a decent lead as Beckham Jr. didn’t have any catches through three well-documented quarters vs. shutdown corner Josh Norman. While I was watching on the NFL Game Mix (8 games at once on a not so-huge TV on DirecTV), I noticed that things were getting super chippy and was waiting for OBJ to get ejected by referee Terry McAulay’s crew for the punches thrown and the cheap shots.

I usually don’t get “holier than though” watching football, but by the time the Giants started their comeback and OBJ started racking up fantasy points I was on my high-horse and stark-raving mad that Beckham Jr. hadn’t been tossed. Heck, I’ve been tossed from rec-league basketball games for way less.

However, his Alshon Jeffery only had one catch for 10 yards and a touchdown, my Patriots DST had a good game and I was hanging in with him heading into Wilson’s huge matchup against my hometown Browns. Knowing that Wilson was hot and the Browns defense is porous, I knew Russ would deliver for me.

What I wasn’t prepared for was Brown scoring 70 points against his Broncos DST. So as the Steelers/Broncos game wore down and I was hoping the Broncos would give up more points, I was hoping that another player would score the final touchdown of this game. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen and when Ben Roethlisberger threw an egregious interception on a terrible pass to his Denver defense right before the two minute warning that I coined the “Class of 1998 Miami University Fantasy Football Scholarship”, I knew that 5 points for the Broncos would loom large.

And as Brown caught another ball, I found myself down 15 points heading into Monday Night Football where it was my Golden Tate vs. his Tim Hightower for the right to survive and advance. Tate was coming off his best game of the season and was facing the porous Saints secondary. Hightower was coming off a solid game. Game flow seemed to favor Tate, but I figured the 15 points would loom too large for Tate to overcome.
As the game started and Tate scored two early touchdowns I found myself up in the game. Hightower scored right before half, but the play was called back on a lineman failing to report. The two of us went crazy over IM the remainder of the game.

At one point, unsolicited my wife and 5 year old son and 1 year old daughter started chanting “Golden Tate, Golden Tate!” pleading for him to get the ball when the Lions were on offense. It was super cute to see my daughter who talks but doesn’t know too many words saying this.

I was clinging to a slight lead and game flow took Hightower out of the game mostly. As I watched the Lions fumble away a few possessions that Tate could’ve had opportunities and the Lions DST unable to force punts to Tate as the returner (we get punt return yards for individual players in our league), I knew this was going to come down to the wire.

With five minutes left and me clinging to an ironic .26 point lead (basically the Week 12 margin of defeat), I paced around knowing that if Hightower got one more carry I would lose. I made it basically to the end of the game where the Lions were running out the clock unscathed. Alas, they didn’t have the ability to run off the entire clock and in came Matt Prater to kick a chip-shot field goal to end the game. Prater then missed, and I knew anything could happen.

The Saints had a few plays left and surely would be setting up for a Hail Mary after gaining a little bit of yardage. Initially seeing C.J. Spiller as the receiving back in the game, I figured I was fine. On a play with 14 seconds left, Drew Brees looked and pump faked at Hightower, but threw elsewhere. With six seconds left to go, folks in my league (including Pesavento) were congratulating me on the win.

Talk about Dewey vs. Truman. The last play should have been a Hail Mary. Instead, Brees decided to pad his completion percentage and throw a dump-off to Hightower. The yardage didn’t matter-I had lost after overcoming a deficit, in another crushing close defeat to Pesavento. Again on the last play of the game.
I wish this writing was fiction and not fact. I had seemingly overcome some poor performances by Green, T.Y. Hilton (who I started over Danny Woodhead based on recent history, Matt Hasselback starting, and Hilton’s history against Houston). I think back to all the dynamics of the matchup- Beckham not getting ejected and missing a for sure deep touchdown early in the game, two straight fade routes to Gronk in the end zone late in the Patriots/Titans game that came up just short, pass interference calls covering my Randall Cobb in the end zone, the Broncos late interception, and finally Hightower’s catch with the Saints down 8 points on the last play of the last game of the week, and I realize that the Reality Sports Online holy grail is a temptress. I easily could have lost by 50 points, won by 20 points or won by .26 points, but instead I lost by a few points and now wish Pesavento good luck in the finals (without Beckham and potentially Jeffery) while I play Wendell for third-place this week.

Only a combination of luck, health, and solid roster moves will result in winning this thing and I hope that my championship window with the same core I have locked up through 2016 will bring me better results next year. There’s always next year.

Please feel free to reach out to me with similar stories, start/sit questions for your big week 16 championship, or to call me a fraud via Twitter @Mattgoody2.

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