Welcome to the RSO Rookie Rundown, a resource to help RSO owners prepare for their upcoming rookie drafts. For more college football and NFL Draft coverage, follow me on Twitter at @robertfcowper. Throughout the offseason, the RSO Rookie Rundown will delve into dozens of future rookies for your consideration. Each prospect will be evaluated on a number of criteria including size, production, performance, character and durability. This is an inexact science but the goal is to gain a better perspective of each player through research. Each player will be given a draft round grade as well as a recent NFL player comparison. For draft round grades, it’s important to remember that some positions are valued more highly than others in the NFL. For player comparisons, it’s important to remember that it is a rough heuristic for illustrative purposes and is based on a physical and statistical basis rather than a prediction of a similar NFL career.
(Editor’s note: most of the below article was written prior to the NFL Scouting Combine)
Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis
I first wrote about Anthony Miller in July, before the season started, and said, tongue-in-cheek, that he would be the next Antonio Brown. Fast forward six months and that prediction isn’t as crazy now as it was then. My attention was grabbed by Miller after he made an incredible one-handed catch against UCONN in 2016. I wasn’t even watching the game for Miller, I was researching the opposing quarterback, but he popped off the screen. Miller, a Memphis native, did not receive any D1 offers and decided to walk-on in 2013 at Memphis. He redshirted that first season and then missed all of 2014 after a rotator cuff injury. In 2015, he played in all twelve games but started just four of them. What I’m driving at is that he’s patient and earned the stardom he has found the last two seasons. That patience does mean that Miller is one of the oldest prospects in the class. Per DLF, he’s 23.4 years old which makes him the tenth oldest. He’ll also rank near the bottom in many combine measureables. I anticipate he’ll come in just short of 5’11” and about 190lbs. He lacks top end speed for a receiver of his size which will dent his draft stock. For comparison, John Ross measured about the same size as Miller and ran an elite 4.22 40 yard dash; NFLDraftScout.com predicts Miller will run a 4.53. In addition to the shoulder injury, Miller has had a number of more minor injuries but none that forced him to miss time. He was injured in the Liberty Bowl and ended up on crutches and in a walking boot. He was invited to the Senior Bowl but declined, likely because of the injury. As far as his personality goes, I’m a fan. When watching him at the end of the season against UCF and Iowa State, it was clear that he was playing through injuries but that they would have to physically remove him from the field to get him out of the game. I did not come across any character negatives while researching Miller and he had one of the most mature quotes I have come across doing such research. When asked what his personal goals were for the season, Miller replied: “I don’t have any individual goals, I just want to win a championship.” He fell short but that’s an uncommon perspective for a young man of his ability so I have confidence that he’ll be a great teammate in his next locker room.
Stats & Accolades: The numbers that Miller has accrued the last two seasons are nearly off the charts. In both 2016 and 2017 he ranked 10th or better in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns – the only FBS player to do so. He was named a consensus First Team All-American after the 2017 season to recognize his accomplishments. Regardless of the level of competition, more on that in a minute, having two back to back seasons of 95+, 1400+ and 14+ is awesome. That’s production and consistency that nobody else in this class can match. The American Conference may want you to think they are part of a Power 6, but they are not, so I checked how Miller did against Power 5 opponents. Those seven games included Auburn, Ole Miss twice, Kansas twice, UCLA and Iowa State. Certainly not a group of top defenses but the averages are still instructive. In those games, Miller averaged 6.3 receptions, 95.4 yards and .7 TDs. According to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics, Miller did not fair as well. In their Deep Receiving stat, he had a mediocre catch rate but did pull in 11 of the 13 catchable passes (7 of them for scores). He did even worse in the Drop Rate stat. His 12.4% drop rate on catchable balls put him near the bottom of the 200 player sample; his 11 total drops was the most out of all sampled players. The one PFF stat that Miller excelled in was Yards Per Route Run. YPRR is a measure of efficiency and Miller ranked third among all FBS receivers. I looked into his situational stats to get a deeper view of his stat tables and was disappointed to see how infrequently he was involved on third down. Just 12 of his 96 receptions came on third down (12.5%). Amazingly, 52 came on first down (54.2%). Having so many receptions on first down, especially when so many turn into another first down (25 of the 52), may tell us more about the Memphis offense than it does about Miller’s ability but it does give me pause. In the red zone, Miller is unstoppable: 17 of his 18 touchdowns came inside the twenty.
Receiving & Rushing Table
|
|
Receiving |
Rushing |
Scrimmage |
| Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
G |
Rec |
Yds |
Avg |
TD |
Att |
Yds |
Avg |
TD |
Plays |
Yds |
Avg |
TD |
| *2015 |
Memphis |
American |
SO |
WR |
12 |
47 |
694 |
14.8 |
5 |
9 |
54 |
6.0 |
2 |
56 |
748 |
13.4 |
7 |
| *2016 |
Memphis |
American |
JR |
WR |
13 |
95 |
1434 |
15.1 |
14 |
12 |
69 |
5.8 |
1 |
107 |
1503 |
14.0 |
15 |
| *2017 |
Memphis |
American |
SR |
WR |
13 |
96 |
1462 |
15.2 |
18 |
10 |
25 |
2.5 |
0 |
106 |
1487 |
14.0 |
18 |
| Career |
Memphis |
|
|
|
|
238 |
3590 |
15.1 |
37 |
31 |
148 |
4.8 |
3 |
269 |
3738 |
13.9 |
40 |
Film Study: Navy (2017), Iowa State (2017), UCLA (2017)
The first play of Anthony Miller that I want to show you is the one that first caught my eye. It came last year against UCONN. Miller makes an incredible one-handed catch, over and behind his head, along the sideline. When I say he’s capable of the spectacular catch, it’s not an exaggeration.
While watching Miller’s tape I noted three key attributes: his hands, his release off the line of scrimmage and his ability to run after the catch. Let’s start with his hands. Miller has sticky hands that I’ll bet are bigger than most guys his size. He often catches the ball away from his body and is able to adjust if the ball is poorly thrown. Two screen pass catches against Navy showcased these hands. Here’s the first:
My analogy when watching this first catch, one that he snags far away from his body, was of a basketball three pointer from the corner. Due to the angle, there is no hope of an assist from the backboard. Same with this catch below. Miller catches the ball with his hands so far away from his body that he is purely catching it with his hands, he couldn’t use his body to help.
This was another good hands catch on a screen pass. Miller runs many short yardage routes, including numerous screens, that allow his ability after the catch to shine. More on the YAC in a second, let’s first look at a replay angle of a catch against Iowa State. You can clearly see here how he gets his hands in good position and catches the ball with his hands without letting the ball get into his body.
Now onto what Miller does when he has the ball in his hands. He’s essentially a running back once he gets the ball because he shows some key attributes of running backs: patience, leg drive, strength to shed tacklers, etc. Miller often initiates contact and rarely chooses to go out of bounds to avoid a tackler. A good illustration of this running ability is showcased by this touchdown catch against Iowa State:
Miller stands still for a beat after the snap, something I think he does on purpose to confuse the defender and to give his blockers an extra moment to set up. He catches the ball twelve yards out and if you pause it right at the catch, there’s no way you would think he gets through all the traffic to paydirt. He is patient with his blocks at first, attempts to stiff arm a tackler and powers toward the goal line. When he gets close he’s able to keep his feet and as he starts to extend for the end zone he has the presence of mind to keep his knees up. Most running backs wouldn’t have been able to convert the score on this play if they were handed the ball at the five, let alone catching it seven yards further back.
Later in the same game, Miller catches a post and shrugs off the corner. He spins the safety like a top and fights for the extra yardage. It wasn’t a huge gainer or for a touchdown but it’s another good example of his “want to” when he has the ball in his hands.
Another key attribute for Miller is his release off the line of scrimmage. Due to his above average speed and route running ability, many teams play him off but he makes them pay when they try to press him. Iowa State played him off for most of the game until late when they tried switching things up. Ultimately the three plays shown below didn’t result in much of anything, so I guess you could argue that the tactic worked, but I don’t think it was because Miller got bottled up at the line. To the contrary, he beat the corner on each of these plays. The first play was a run and the second resulted in a sack. The third was the best chance at a positive play but Riley Ferguson overthrew a streaking Miller who had beaten the defense.
Miller showed his fantastic release against UCLA as well. This play was a fantastic touchdown catch that we’ll get into below. Here’s a good angle showing just how easily he gets around the corner and up field. Plays like this where Miller beats the press untouched are common.
As I’ve mentioned in multiple places in this profile, Miller is capable of the spectacular. Against UCLA, he made this amazing catch:
At first glance it is not clear if Miller holds onto the ball, but he does. He is fully extended and catches it with his fingertips. He somehow manages to control the ball as he hits the ground with no free hand to break the fall. Here’s a replay angle:
On the very next play, Miller makes another excellent catch, this one over the shoulder. Miller leaves the defender behind effortlessly, as seen above, catches the ball with nary a glance over his shoulder and drags the defender the last five yards into the end zone. What a play.
Now, I don’t want you to think it’s all rainbows and roses with Miller. There are some concerns to share as well. He’s not a great blocker, no surprise given his size and usage. However, what bothered me most was that he doesn’t always show that “want to” when he doesn’t have the ball in his own hands. Here are two examples of plays where Miller basically gives up. In the first he doesn’t even bother trying to block for his teammate down field. In the second he misses a block and promptly stands around.
After my review of his statistics, I was expecting to see a number of drops from Miller but I didn’t note it as a concern while watching these three games. Maybe I just watched the wrong games, maybe I missed one while taking notes or maybe I have a different definition of a “drop” than the PFF analysts. I would be interested to see what other draftniks think after watching a different batch of games. Are concentration drops an issue? For now, I’ll say no but I’m not positive.
SWOT Analysis: (SWOT analysis is a way to study the internal and external factors that may help or hinder your ability to achieve an objective. The objective here: getting drafted.)
Strengths: Route running, release against press coverage, ability to make the spectacular catch, body control along the sideline, willingness to play through injury, efficiency, red zone efficiency, personality.
Weaknesses: Age, size, lack of production on third down, potential issue with concentration drops, played against lesser competition.
Opportunities: Miller needs just one team to see past the negatives so he has a chance to get on the field and show what he can do. They will find out pretty quickly that they have a stud.
Threats: Due to his mediocre measureables and advanced age, teams may not view Miller as a prime candidate to be the team’s future WR1.
Draft Round Grade: Early 2nd Round
I feel pretty confident about this one. Miller is the type of player, in my opinion, that won’t be sought after by all 32 teams but there will be a few who are just absolutely sold on his potential. If I was a betting man, I would say he goes within the first forty picks and is a target for a team trading up into the top of the 2nd round.
Recent NFL Comparison: Antonio Brown
I’ve already used the Brown comparison so I’ll stick with it. Brown measured in slightly smaller at the combine (5’10” and 186lbs) than Miller is currently listed but the difference is negligible. Brown ran a 4.56, just a tad slower than Miller is projected by NFLDraftScout.com. Both players were dominant receivers at a mid-major conference. Brown was more versatile (with plenty of rushes and returns) but Miller was more productive as a receiver (15.1 average and 37 TDs versus 10.5 and 22). Brown’s magnetic hands and nimble feet have propelled him in the NFL and I think Miller has that potential as well.
Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State
Michael Gallup is an interesting prospect, and one that fans should focus on for a few reasons. The first and most obvious reason is Gallup’s on the field production. He’s arguably been the best receiver in the conference the last two seasons (Cedrick Wilson may disagree) and racked up impressive stats in his two seasons with the Rams. The second reason to follow Gallup is because of his interesting back story. Gallup was born in Atlanta and adopted into a family with a number of other adopted children. Gallup’s siblings hailed from India and multiple West African countries. He became the man of the house at a young age and seems like an all-round great kid. He excelled in sports all throughout high school, earning sixteen varsity letters (playing varsity football, basketball, baseball and track all four years). Gallup had offers from eight Power 5 schools, including Kentucky, Missouri and NC State. Ultimately, his test scores were subpar and he had to go the JUCO route and landed at Butler Community College in Kansas. Gallup ended up getting offers from Colorado State, Kansas State, New Mexico and South Alabama when he left Butler. He chose CSU and the rest is history. Aside from an ankle injury in 2015 that limited him to just four games, Gallup has had a pretty clean bill of health. At the Senior Bowl, Gallup measured in a little shorter than hoped: just under 6’1″ and 198lbs. I struggled to find a good 40 yard dash estimate but multiple articles I found suggested a 4.40 to a 4.50. Gallup clearly has the skills and the speed to make it in the NFL, so I’m interested to see how teams evaluate his path to the league. It’s impossible to guess what could have been if he had had the chance to play at one of those bigger schools, but I’ll bet Gallup is a-okay with how things worked out in the end.
Stats & Accolades: Back in 2014, as a freshman at Butler Community College, Gallup scored 11 TDs and amassed 780 yards (an injury killed his sophomore season). He leaped into the national college football consciousness in 2016 with a great 76-1,272-14 season as a JUCO transfer. He followed that up with a 100 catch campaign in 2017 which netted him consensus All-American status. His scoring and average declined this year though despite the added targets. In 2016 he led the Mountain West in receiving touchdowns and in 2017 he led the conference in receptions. I consulted Pro Football Focus’ signature stats and was encouraged by some data and discouraged by others. Gallup ranked 8th in Yards Per Route Run, which is a measure of efficiency. This efficiency shouldn’t be surprising because he ranked 3rd in the FBS in receiving yards earned on screen passes. This predilection for short passes and struggles in the deep passing game (he ranked 76th in Deep Passing catch rate) gives me pause. Gallup was middle of the pack in drop rate but I’m not too worried yet: he’s such a high volume target with questionable quarterback play that it’s inevitable that he’ll have a number of drops. The more important thing will be to watch his film and see if concentration drops are an issue. PFF reports that Gallup has dropped just 12 of his 191 catchable targets the last two years. He came in above average, compared to his draft class, in missed tackle rate but below average in blocking. I studied his situational stats and game logs to see if there were any notable trends. I was happy to see that he is successful on 3rd and long, converting 9 of 11 such receptions for first downs this season. One negative I noticed was that 63% of Gallup’s receptions came in the 1st and 2nd quarter which means he was not showing up for the Rams at the most clutch times. I didn’t take the time to go through the scoring summaries for each Colorado State game but 7 of the 13 were two possession games or closer. Those are games that you would expect the second half to be competitive. Based on my quick back-of-the-envelope arithmetic, I would expect Gallup to be much more involved down the stretch. Gallup’s performance against Power 5 teams was mostly mediocre, except for a 11-134-0 game against Oregon State. He did manage 5-81-0 against Alabama’s supreme pass defense this year – that will likely be a key film to watch.
Receiving & Rushing Table
|
|
Receiving |
Rushing |
Scrimmage |
| Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
G |
Rec |
Yds |
Avg |
TD |
Att |
Yds |
Avg |
TD |
Plays |
Yds |
Avg |
TD |
| *2016 |
Colorado State |
MWC |
JR |
WR |
13 |
76 |
1272 |
16.7 |
14 |
4 |
15 |
3.8 |
0 |
80 |
1287 |
16.1 |
14 |
| *2017 |
Colorado State |
MWC |
SR |
WR |
13 |
100 |
1413 |
14.1 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
100 |
1413 |
14.1 |
7 |
| Career |
Colorado State |
|
|
|
|
176 |
2685 |
15.3 |
21 |
4 |
15 |
3.8 |
0 |
180 |
2700 |
15.0 |
21 |
Film Study: Oregon State (2017), Alabama (2017)
The first trait I was watching for in Gallup’s film, after reviewing his PFF advanced stats and after my Anthony Miller study, was his ability to run after the catch. It’s clear why the Colorado State coaches scheme to throw Gallup the ball so often on short passes: he serves as an extension of the running game. On the below play, Gallup gets the ball thrown to him quickly as a hot read after a corner blitz. He sidesteps safety Ronnie Harrison and manages to squirt through the tackle. As he runs in the open field he changes his ball hand, positioning the ball nearer the sideline which is a great sign of his awareness. Gallup manages to break the second tackle but it sets him off-balance along the sideline. He manages to stay in bounds for an extra ten yards before getting walloped by Minkah Fitzpatrick. The play showcased his ability to break tackles, his body control, his awareness and a little of his speed.
I estimate that Gallup has above average speed for his class (NFLDraftScout.com estimates 4.52 which is one of the higher estimates I found online). You can see some of his speed on the above play between broken tackles but there better examples. In the below play, you get a taste of Gallup’s speed as he blows past the corner, as well as a glimpse at his route running and hands. The corner makes up ground as Gallup slows to make the over-the-shoulder catch but you can see his speed on the release.
Speaking of his release, Gallup often gets a clean release, even when he was playing against superior corners in the Alabama game. For the first clip, I picked one where Gallup easily gets off the line with a quick footed juke move that lets him get inside leverage on the corner. He doesn’t ultimately make the catch because he gets spooked by the oncoming safety. It was a tight window for the quarterback to try and fit but I still mark this one as a concentration drop.
In the second clip showcasing his release off the line of scrimmage, Gallup shows that he has good hands to fight off a pressing corner. He starts outside, the corner gets a hand on him which he violently knocks off. Once he fights off the corner’s contact, he’s free to cut inside on a skinny post route that I saw him run numerous times in my study. The catch went for a first down in what was still just a two possession game against Alabama.
This next clip again shows Gallup’s effortless looking release. He uses his speed and agility to get past the first defender by first setting him up outside before cutting inside. The second dropping defender doesn’t have a chance as he clumsily flips his feet once he realizes he’s about to be beat over the top. Gallup does not make the catch but I wouldn’t count this one as a drop like I did above – it was a much harder catch at full extension.
After watching these two films, I can confidently say that Gallup has very good hands and excellent body control. He may not be on the same level as Anthony Miller when it comes to making awe inspiring catches but nobody is. On this first example, which happened to be the opening play of the game, Gallup looks the ball into his hands and makes an NFL catch with both feet in bounds.
The next example comes a little later in the Oregon State game. The pass is thrown wide of Gallup but he adjusts and makes the catch with his hands while still managing to get (both of) his feet in.
The final example didn’t actually count as a catch but the play was inconclusive at best. Even though it was ruled incomplete, I think it really shows us an underrated strength of Gallup’s game: his play strength. We have already seen that he’s willing to get physical while running his routes by hand checking with the corner, and in this play we see how strong his hands are with a defender draped all over him. Gallup high points the back shoulder ball and manages to hold on as the defender gets his arm inside and tries to pry the ball loose. The ball may have moved as Gallup hit the ground but I don’t think it’s irrefutable, at least on the replays I have seen. Who knows with the potential changes to the NFL catch rules, maybe this would hold up at the next level. Either way, it’s a great play that didn’t actually count.
In the two games I watched, I did not see much blocking action from Gallup. There were a few plays where he was engaged with a defender as the ball went to the other side of the field. I was encouraged, after seeing Anthony Miller give up on some plays, that he did seem to play to the whistle.
SWOT Analysis: (SWOT analysis is a way to study the internal and external factors that may help or hinder your ability to achieve an objective. The objective here: getting drafted.)
Strengths: Production, higher pedigree than most mid-major WRs, all around athlete, run after catch ability, play strength.
Weaknesses: Lacks elite measureables, reliance on screen passes inflates production, concentration drops may be an issue, non-traditional route to college stardom.
Opportunities: Due to his level of production, teams may ignore Gallup’s path and treat him as if he did end up at one of those Power 5 schools. His versatile skill set likely means he can fill a number of receiver positions on the field for most offenses.
Threats: Teams may compare him to Zay Jones from 2017 whose stellar numbers were heavily inflated by his reliance on screen passes. The fact that Jones did not translate immediately with the Bills could hurt Gallup’s stock. Teams may question Gallup’s mental acuity since he did not test well enough to play in the FBS at first.
Draft Round Grade: Mid to Late 2nd Round
I will have Gallup behind Miller in my positional rankings so that means I should probably give Gallup a lower draft grade. I think they are both 2nd round talents but give the nod to Miller. All three players I considered for Gallup’s comp were selected in the 2nd round so this is a no-brainer grade.
Recent NFL Comparison: Nelson Agholor
When I first did my combine measureables comparison, I was between the aforementioned Zay Jones, Nelson Agholor and Robert Woods for Gallup’s comp. Ultimately I decided to go with Agholor. They are about the same height and likely about the same weight. The reason I say likely is that Agholor’s listed weights range from 185-198; the official weight on the Eagles website, and the weight measured at the combine, is 198, identical to what I have down for Gallup. Agholor was a dynamic punt returner in college but Gallup never returned a single kick so they differ there. Other than that though, there are a number of similarities in their stats. Both had 100+ catches and 1,300+ yards in their last, and best, seasons. Their receptions, yards and touchdown totals are all remarkably similar (although Agholor had the benefit of playing sparingly as a freshman, so slight advantage to Gallup for doing the same in two seasons). They both averaged about 15.0 yards per reception and had one season over 16.0. I watched a Youtube highlight package of Agholor at USC and after you get past the punt returns, there is a lot that mirrors Gallup: the yards after the catch, the snatch catches with the hands away from the body, the hand strength to hold onto contested catches. Gallup will need to run at the top of his estimated 40 yard dash time but it’s not impossible to think he gets in the 4.45 range as Agholor did. If Gallup lands on a team that uses him as the Eagles used Agholor in 2017 it would be a big win for his fantasy owners.
DJ Moore, WR, Maryland
DJ Moore has mostly been off my radar throughout the season and the start of the draft process. A number of #DraftTwitter follows that I respect have high opinions of Moore so I thought it was important to give him a closer look myself. Moore checks in at 6’0″ and 210lbs, a good size combination. He is free of serious injuries and started 35 straight games for Maryland dating back to his freshman season. Moore is a former 4-star recruit from Philadelphia who found a home nearby in College Park. I came across numerous mentions of his work ethic, specifically his strength coach said that “his attitude and work ethic is contagious.” I struggled to find estimates of his 40 yard dash speed except for this questionable Hudl page which shows a 4.49 time. By the time you read this he will have already ran at the combine but for now I am just guessing at his speed based on his film. A common theme I read about when researching Moore was his poor quarterback play. Over his three seasons, Maryland has had seven quarterbacks attempt 20+ passes (Moore has caught passes from eight different QBs). While I think that poor quarterback play is a fair consideration, we should keep in mind that many of these prospects are being targeted by average, or worse, passers.
Stats & Accolades: In addition to his receiving stats which we’ll get to, Maryland created touches for Moore in numerous ways. In 2016, he returned fifteen kicks (22.3 average). In 2017, he returned fifteen punts (10.2). He has seventeen career rushing attempts (125 yards, 1 TD) and even five passing attempts (3 completions, 36 yards). The cherry on top was a 34 yard punt in the Michigan game this past season. It’s hard not to fall in love with Moore for his versatility before you even analyze his abilities as a receiver, but that’s why we’re here. Moore’s stats don’t jump off the page – he barely hit the 1,000 yard mark this year and never scored double digit touchdowns. If he were a small school prospect we probably would even be thinking of Moore as a draft prospect. However, he did face strong Big Ten defenses with those poor passers as previously mentioned, so he gets the benefit of the doubt. Moore’s biggest career game came in 2017 against Northwestern. In that contest he racked up 210 yards and 2 TDs on 12 receptions. He has four other games of 100+ for a total of five in his career. As far as advanced stats, Moore’s advantage lies in his target share. He was the sixth most targeted draft eligible receiver this year according to PFF. In their Yard Per Route Run metric, he ranked 16th. He caught 9 of 12 deep passes (for 326 yards and 2 TDs). His drop rate was 8.14% which is a little high and puts him in the bottom half of receivers in that stat; he dropped 7 of 86 catchable targets this season per PFF’s tracking. Moore’s scatter plot was interesting to digest in the PFF NFL Draft Guide. It shows where on the field a receiver was for each target and shows whether it was a completed pass, an incomplete pass, a touchdown or an interception. Moore lined up exclusively on the left hand side which caught my attention and five of his eight TDs were caught within ten yards of the line of scrimmage.
Receiving & Rushing Table
|
|
Receiving |
Rushing |
Scrimmage |
| Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
G |
Rec |
Yds |
Avg |
TD |
Att |
Yds |
Avg |
TD |
Plays |
Yds |
Avg |
TD |
| 2015 |
Maryland |
Big Ten |
FR |
WR |
11 |
25 |
357 |
14.3 |
3 |
1 |
9 |
9.0 |
0 |
26 |
366 |
14.1 |
3 |
| *2016 |
Maryland |
Big Ten |
SO |
WR |
13 |
41 |
637 |
15.5 |
6 |
11 |
55 |
5.0 |
0 |
52 |
692 |
13.3 |
6 |
| 2017 |
Maryland |
Big Ten |
JR |
WR |
12 |
80 |
1033 |
12.9 |
8 |
5 |
61 |
12.2 |
1 |
85 |
1094 |
12.9 |
9 |
| Career |
Maryland |
|
|
|
|
146 |
2027 |
13.9 |
17 |
17 |
125 |
7.4 |
1 |
163 |
2152 |
13.2 |
18 |
Film Study: Northwestern (2017), Michigan (2017)
The first film of Moore that I watched was the 2017 Michigan game. It was brutal. The starting quarterback, a walk-on named Ryan Brand, was just utterly over matched by the Michigan defense. I might be reconsidering my point above about Moore’s quarterback play and how it’s something that many receivers need to transcend. Moore did not do much in the game as a receiver (5-37-0) but he was involved in other ways. The first play I’ll show you is the aforementioned punt. I thought for sure the play would have come out of a “wildcat” formation in an effort to fool the defense on a short fourth down. Nope. Moore was lined up fifteen yards back on his own 15 yard line in a true punt formation. I have no idea why, maybe the punter was dealing with an injury? The commentators sounded just as confused as Michigan looked.
Moore’s other trick play in the game was a 21 yard completion on a reverse pass back to the QB. It wasn’t a pretty throw but Moore made the play and that’s what matters most.
On two consecutive plays, Moore did show a willingness to get involved as a blocker. I question his ability to stand up to linebackers, safeties and larger corners in the NFL but he did well enough on these two plays that I am willing to say he’s at least an average blocker compared to others in the class.
Due to the combination of his size, speed and lower body strength, Moore is a good runner after the catch. No play showed that better than this touchdown against Northwestern. Moore lines up outside and runs a quick in route. It’s a designed play because you can see the blockers down field right away. As Moore arrives at contact after making the catch, he lowers his center of gravity as three tacklers converge. He forces his way through two leg tackles and emerges at the other end with a quick jab step that freezes a fourth incoming defender. That quick step allows Moore to escape and then he turns on the jets for the score.
Moore is adept at running multiple screen patterns from various alignments on the field. Near the line of scrimmage he has a feel for avoiding traffic and getting open as he streaks across the field. There were two consecutive plays early in the game that I noted as questionable route running. In the first play, he does not show an explosive first move and does not appear to be successful fighting off the corner’s contact with his hands. In the second play, he gets inside leverage on the defender but his pivot step is lazy and he doesn’t really make himself a target for the quarterback.
Moore’s route running was better against Northwestern so I’m willing to overlook my nitpick comments against Michigan. In this first example, he shows a great awareness of field position and game situation. It’s 3rd and 16 and Northwestern is playing a deep zone coverage. Moore lines up outside and breaks his route in after getting two yards past the first down marker. He finds a soft spot in the zone and sits in it, right at the sticks. When he catches the ball he gets up field, albeit after a hazardous first step backwards, and gets more than enough for the first.
The best route I saw Moore run (and possibly the best route I noted out of this trio of receivers) came early in the Northwestern game. Moore is lined up in the slot to the left of the quarterback. He runs a short five yard out route, which does not look like much at first glance. If you slow it down though there is a lot to love. Moore’s first step is to the boundary, to the outside of the defender. This causes the defender to slide inside in an effort to gain leverage. Moore pushes him up field and then plants his right foot which makes the defender bite and think he’s breaking inside. As Moore breaks outside, he misses the chance to knock the corner’s hands off him but he still gets free enough to make the grab. He has to slow down and adjust to the ball and catches it with his body but we’ll forgive that since he did so much else well on the play. He delivers a violent stiff arm to the would-be tackler and drags him into the end zone while his facemask is being held. All in all, it was a great play that illustrates a number of Moore’s best qualities.
SWOT Analysis: (SWOT analysis is a way to study the internal and external factors that may help or hinder your ability to achieve an objective. The objective here: getting drafted.)
Strengths: Run after catch ability, speed, versatility to line up inside or outside, trick play master, high target share, played well despite bad quarterback play last two years, field and game situation awareness, work ethic.
Weaknesses: Lacks elite production, high drop rate on catchable balls, lined up exclusively on the left side of the field.
Opportunities: Moore can line up as both an inside slot receiver or on the outside which will make fitting into an NFL scheme easier. His reported work ethic will allow him to win the offseason and earn respect in the locker room early. That plus his high target share may lead teams to believe he could develop into their WR1.
Threats: I struggled to identify weaknesses for Moore. Ultimately, teams may use his versatility against him and deem him as a “jack of all trades and master of none.” NFL offenses who have their receivers line up on both sides frequently may notice that Moore rarely lined up to the right and may fear that is a tell of a weakness Maryland was trying to hide.
Draft Round Grade: Early 2nd Round
I started this preview with a 3rd round grade in mind. After all of my research and film study, I can’t help but put Moore at the top of the 2nd round. I really struggled to find negatives while watching his film and have a feeling he will do well in draft process. Right now I would place Moore ahead of Gallup and about even with Miller.
Recent NFL Comparison: Chris Godwin
Typically I prefer using a comp that has more NFL experience so owners are more familiar with who I select. Unfortunately, there are not many great comps for Moore – which is a compliment to his athletic ability. Moore can run faster, jump higher and jump further than most in his cohort. Godwin is the closest approximation we have since 2010 as far as athletic profile and college production. Godwin also struggled at times with below average quarterback play but ended up with a 154-2,421-18 line (compared to Moore’s 146-2,027-17). Godwin ended up being a third rounder but I think Moore’s stock is higher because he’ll likely test better.
Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…
- Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
- Film: 2018 NFL Draft Database by @CalhounLambeau, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
- Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
- Draft history: drafthistory.com
- Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
- Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
- Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes
Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.
