Phase 1 Free Agency Grades
The first phase of free agency got off to an explosive start with teams filling needs across the spectrum. While all of the players fill roles for their new teams, not all of the deals are created equally. I grade the most fantasy relevant deals looking at their prospective uses and what they mean for your RSO team.
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins lands with one of the best teams in the league in about the best case scenario for Cousins. The wide receivers and tight ends are arguably better as a group when compared to Washington’s core last season and the offensive line, while likely not better, is bound to be healthier. New offensive coordinator John DeFilippo is somewhat of an unknown as he only has one stop as coordinator in the NFL and that was with a bad 2015 Cleveland team. He spent the rest of his professional career primarily as a quarterback coach which is also good for the former Washington quarterback. Cousins remains in the low-end QB1 conversation.
Grade: B. Minnesota understands the small championship window for a team based on a dominant defense and went all-in for a quarterback upgrade to maximize their chances during that stretch. The deal gets dinged for giving a good, but not great, quarterback a practically fully guaranteed top-of-market 3 year/ $84 million contract. The move necessarily limits contract extension options for other star Minnesota players over the next few years.
Drew Brees
Brees technically merited free agent status but there was little question he would resign with New Orleans. The 39 year old still is one of the best in the business finishing with his best efficiency numbers in seven years and the best completion percentage of his career. The raw numbers were down a bit thanks to a hugely improved defense and a stellar run game last year. Brees remains as a solid fantasy QB1 but the video game numbers in the past might be out of reach due to the lower expected volume from better surrounding circumstances.
Grade: A. Resigning Brees, the face of the New Orleans franchise, was a near necessity for a team in title contention. Losing the longtime quarterback also would have been a public relations nightmare for both parties. Brees even bought into giving the Saints a hometown discount.
Others of Note
Sam Bradford transitions to an Arizona team also in transition with a new coaching staff. The match is not ideal with an immobile, fragile Bradford playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. This might be a replay of his 2016 season with lots of short routes and dump-offs for the time he remains healthy. Case Keenum goes to Denver for a team more on the down-slope than they want to admit. The defense, while still good, is not what it once was and there is little speed from the offensive skill players. Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater will fight for reps on the rebuilding New York Jets. All of these quarterbacks might show up on the bottom-tier QB2 radar for superflex/2QB leagues but, being on teams who possibly draft a long-term answer at quarterback, also could be replaced later in the season depending on circumstances.
Running Backs
Jerick McKinnon
Jerick McKinnon and Dion Lewis were the two highest paid free agent running backs in total contract value and guarantees. Let that fact sink in for a minute. Free agency really showed what direction the running back position is headed toward. NFL teams clearly value multi-dimensional running backs capable of significant contributions in the passing game. McKinnon’s stock (and hype) rockets upward in San Francisco under Kyle Shanahan. It is a better scheme fit for the athletic phenom with more outside run plays and heavy pass game utilization. Additionally, the depth chart below McKinnon is only led by an undersized undrafted free agent, Matt Breida. He will not be a traditional “bell cow” running back dominating touches, but lock in McKinnon as an RB2 for a potentially explosive offensive with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback.
Grade: B+. This is a terrific fit and a position of need but at a big cost (4 year/ $30 million) for a running back who will not take the large majority of touches. A closer look at the deal and San Francisco’s cap situation diminishes those concerns somewhat. The 49ers wealth of cap space allowed a front-loaded contract with minimal commitments and more reasonable cap hits following 2018.
Dion Lewis
New Titans offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur comes from the Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay coaching tree. This means an emphasis on dual-threat running backs. Lewis is very good as a runner and displays exceptional quickness running routes. As a bonus, he is electric with the ball in his hands out of the backfield. His main issue has always been his susceptibility to injury. He maintained his health last season and was one of the better backs in the league. He moves to another solid run-blocking offensive line. I rank him as low-end RB2/Flex play currently.
What this move really does is limit fellow running back Derrick Henry’s ceiling. Most people understood Tennessee would, at a minimum, bring in a significant third down back given Henry’s big deficiencies in the pass game. Lewis provides a lot more than that and will be used throughout the game in multiple different situations. Henry’s touch share becomes far more game script dependent with Lewis in the mix.
Grade: A-. While his 4 year/$19.8 million contract is the second highest free agent deal given out, it is still a minimal portion of team cap space like most other running back contracts. Lewis provides the “combo” back which is a much better fit in this offense and something that was not on the Titans’ roster before. He will not be depended on to take a full load, which should help health concerns, but will be a great piece for what LaFleur wants to do on offense.
Others of Note
Carlos Hyde moves to Cleveland where he takes the place of Isaiah Crowell. He is a better runner but also one of the worst receivers in the NFL out of the backfield. His receiving work, which were largely a result of having a rookie quarterback at the helm, likely dramatically decreases with Duke Johnson as a true weapon out of the backfield. Hyde downgrades to a borderline RB2. Speaking of Crowell, he departs to the Jets where he continues his rushing down role. The Jets have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and probably play from behind a lot next season. His fantasy prospects remain similar to what they were in Cleveland as a borderline RB3/4. Rex Burkhead resigned with New England and is joined by former Bengals running mate Jeremy Hill. The Patriots backfield remains a mess with James White siphoning off receiving work and Mike Gillislee possibly in the mix. Still, there is massive touchdown upside in this offense and a large target share for running backs. Burkhead and Hill both make for cheap gambles on a great offense.
Wide Receivers
Sammy Watkins
Maybe no other team’s skill players embrace the strength of their quarterback better than Kansas City. Watkins gives new quarterback Patrick Mahomes another target capable of stretching defenses and creating big plays. While this move undoubted should help the offense, what this means for Watkins fantasy value is far sketchier. The former fourth overall pick has been utilized primarily as a deep threat to this point in his career. Will he see much increased volume on a team with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce as the top incumbents and essentially a rookie quarterback? I put him in the WR3 mix although one with a larger range of outcomes and more upside than others in this range.
Grade: C-. Watkins’ strengths should mesh well with Mahomes but this signing is an absolutely massive commitment to a player with an unknown role in the offense. Watkins immediately becomes the fourth highest paid wide receiver in average salary for the entire NFL. This is top of the league receiver money for a player who could conceivably be 3rd on his team in targets. His big cap hits in future years could also produce difficult roster decisions for the Chiefs.
Allen Robinson
Robinson produced one great season and a few middling ones in Jacksonville. How much of that is due to the quarterback situation remains to be seen. It is troubling Jacksonville felt more comfortable signing Marquise Lee and Donte Moncrief to big contracts rather than tagging or resigning Robinson. His best skill is corralling contested boundary throws which is not the type of throw new quarterback Mitch Trubisky has shown a penchant for. With that being said, he should still slot in immediately as Trubisky’s top target. Robinson ranks as a low-end WR2 for what will likely be a low-volume passing attack.
Grade: B. Chicago needed receiving weapons in the worst way and landed one of the top available at an average of $14 million for 3 years. Robinson is an expensive gamble based on his injury history and inconsistent production but a risk worth taking for a team with plenty of cap space and little else on the roster.
Others of Note
Paul Richardson fills the need for a speedy deep threat in Washington receiving a big five year deal in the process. The afore-mentioned Donte Moncrief swindled a fully guaranteed contract of almost $10 million (plus incentives) in 2018 from Jacksonville making him the third highest paid wide receiver in free agency and top-20 in average salary among all wideouts. This was easily one of the worst skill-position contracts given out in free agency on a player who will fight for playing time but is paid like a top receiver. Marquise Lee stays in WR3/WR4 mix on Jacksonville’s low-volume passing attack. Miami dumped Jarvis Landry’s big franchise tag contract on Cleveland only to spend a combined $36 million in five years on Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola to fight for slot and WR2 reps with incumbent Kenny Stills.
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham
The Seattle experience was not kind for Jimmy Graham. He never really fit in for what the Seahawks wanted from him when he was healthy and it was painful watching Graham following his patellar injury. Unfortunately he lost the burst and speed which made him one of the most dangerous receiving weapons in the league with New Orleans. His great size and hands still let him maintain a role as a significant short-area threat. The lack of options at tight end puts Graham in the borderline TE1 mix on a potentially explosive Green Bay offense.
Grade: D. This is an odd fit as Green Bay never utilized the tight end position much during Aaron Rodgers’ reign as quarterback. Graham can still be a useful role player but clearly is not the type of game changer the Packers invested in. Green Bay paid for the Graham of five years ago with a contract that makes him the highest paid tight end in average salary for the NFL today.
Trey Burton
Some players make a lot of money on the open market based on a few games filling in for starters. Trey Burton is this year’s reincarnation after scoring a 4 year/ $32 million contract from the Bears which places Burton as one of the highest paid tight ends in the league. What role Chicago has in mind for Burton is still a question. Burton is not big enough to fill the primary tight end spot. While a good receiver for a tight end, he also is not the type of difference-making receiving weapon that warrants being on the field consistently despite his blocking deficiencies. Burton slides in the very broad TE2 territory for fantasy purposes.
Grade: D+. This move seems like a desperation play from a team in bad need of receiving help. Burton makes for a nice number two receiving tight end for a team but is paid like one of the best tight ends in the league. There could be some untapped potential here but Chicago paid dearly on that gamble.
Others of Note
Detroit unceremoniously released Eric Ebron after four disappointing years. He joins Jack Doyle in what could be a sneaky good spot with Andrew Luck returning and a lack of pass catchers signed for the Colts. Perennially injured Tyler Eifert resigned a single year contract in Cincinnati. Health will be the key issue as always for the former first rounder who has TE1 upside when in the lineup. Austin Seferian-Jenkins moves to Jacksonville in a low-upside passing attack. The former Jet has not eclipsed 360 yards in a season and is nothing but TE flier for fantasy purposes.
Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.
