IDP Start/Sit: Week 4

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By Jake

Updated: September 27th 2023

Here we are. Week 4. Some of us are celebrating our start, others about to panic. Wherever you land in there, let’s take a breath, focus in on week 4, and find some great options for your lineup to get your team heading towards that playoff birth!

Week 3 Recap

DL:

Start: Greg Rousseau (1 sack, 1 solo) 👍

Sit: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (2 solos) 👍

LB:

Start: Alex Anzalone (4 solos, 1 assist) 👎

Sit: Nick Bolton (Injured)

DB:

Start: Dax Hill (1 sack, 6 solos, 1 assist) 👍

Sit: Kyler Dugger (5 solos, 2 assists, 1 PBU) 👎

Week 1 Starts & Sits

START: Za’Darius Smith, Cleveland Browns, DL46 (ED33)

The Cleveland Browns have one of the best defenses to kick off the 2023 season. While Myles Garrett has been on a tear, Smith has been quite productive in his own right, while it has not fully come through on the box score, yet.

He has 9 pressures and 4 QB hits on 73 pass rush snaps. While this has not netted a sack yet, this matchup in week 4 against the Baltimore Ravens. We targeted the Ravens matchup in week 1 for Will Anderson, and for the same reasons, we are doing it again. Lamar has an average time to throw of 2.82 seconds. This matchup along with Smith’s success winning his matchups up front, with a very strong 27.3% win rate in true pass rush sets. This looks like a great week for Za’Darius to notch his first sack of the season.

SIT: Rashan Gary, Green Bay Packers, DL25 (ED20)

Gary has done an amazing job coming back from a very serious injury last season and has already shown us what we saw in his limited breakout campaign last season before getting hurt. 4 sacks through his first 3 games, how could we “sit” Gary? Well, in comes the Detroit Lions on Thursday night with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and an offense that appreciates a run/pass balance and focuses on getting the ball out of Goff’s hands (2.56 seconds for his time to throw).

These matchup concerns and a short week for the Packers’ defense could be better and make Gary a bit of a risk to play as a DL2 for me. He is already a limited participant from his own injury, but the potential downgrades across the rest of the defense (Campbell and Jaire) don’t help the overall case either. Gary has the talent to deliver for a lineup still, but I am planning for a bit of down week.

START: Alex Singleton, Denver Broncos, LB48

The “King of Tackle Efficiency” has not worn his crown this year while only logging a slightly above-average tackle efficiency of 13.33%. This week, against the Bears, the Broncos linebackers should find a nice bounce-back game as opposing linebackers have had top-10 performances against the Chicago Bears. Also, Josey Jewell is no guarantee for this matchup either experiencing a groin injury that took him out of week 3.

Singleton has a chance to take the lead role this week against a hapless offense and find a way back on top of the tackle efficiency hill… or at the very least, be a strong top 30 LB play for us in week 4 of our IDP seasons!

SIT: Tremaine Edmunds, Chicago Bears, LB20

Tremaine Edmunds has seen some heat this season from Chicago fans since his big contract this off-season and the lack of a good start from either side of the ball for the Bears. Edmunds has been very effective as a tackler, with one of the best seasons in his career, at 16.04% tackle efficiency. So why bench or fade Edmunds this week?

This comes down to the matchup and opportunity. Edmunds saw his snap count dip a bit last week and with no clear injury or understanding at this time from the coach, this is a little concerning. And for the Denver Broncos, opposing LBs have not fared as well for IDP against them. In fact, they are bottom 5 in points given up to LBs. For these reasons, I am passing on Edmunds as an LB2 this week.

START: Rudy Ford, Green Bay Packers, DB46 (S43)

Last season, Rudy Ford was an afterthought at the start of the 2022 season. But by the end, and going into 2023, Ford was the presumed starter for a solid Packers defense and has found a way to be successful for IDP in this new role.

He has notched 20 tackles on 212 defensive snaps. Along with 2 PBUs Rudy Ford has a decent start to the IDP season. His alignment and usage have been good, but not great as well. Taking 49.05% of his snaps within the sweet spot (DL, Box, Slot) alignments, he has made the most and gets a team in the Detroit Lions, that are top 10 in scoring for opposing teams’ safeties. And with Sam LaPorta off to a hot start and Goff’s tendency to target inside the numbers, Ford is in line for a much better performance than anticipated for week 4.

SIT: Tyrann Mathieu, New Orleans Saints, DB36 (S35)

Tyrann has played an ideal role with strong alignment in the sweet spot at, 57.9% of his snaps. However, he has had mediocre delivery for IDP with this usage. 12 total tackles on 202 snaps, 1 pass break-up, and only 2 pass rush opportunities. The under-performance for the first 3 weeks has me a bit concerned about his ability to deliver in this next matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Bucs have been a bottom-half IDP scoring team for opposing safeties and looked to have been a bit exposed against the Eagles in week 3. Getting pressure on Mayfield and getting him out of the pocket has led to less success and shorter drives, which can limit our IDP upside as well.

For this week, I am out on Mathieu and I would be wary for the remainder of the season as well.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 3

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By Jake

Updated: September 20th 2023

IDP Start/Sit: Week 3

We have been looking good on our start decisions, but the sits/fades have not worked out, yet. But as we get more information from what teams are doing and how they want to do it, we will make even better-informed decisions. And let’s start making some of those decisions for week 3.

Week 2 Recap

DL:

Start: Khalil Mack (4 solos, 1 assist, 1 sack) 👍

Sit: Quinnen Williams (6 solos) 👎

LB:

Start: Azeez Al-Shaair (5 solos, 5 assists) 👍

Sit: De’Vondre Campbell (9 solos, 4 assists) 👎

DB:

Start: Jevon Holland (8 solos, 2 assists, 1 PBU) 👍

Sit: Marcus Maye (6 solos, 1 assist) 👎

Week 3 Starts & Sits

START: Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL36 (Edge 26)

Gregory Rousseau is one of those “in-between” players for me. He has the talent, but doesn’t get high-end snap counts, and in doing so, he ends up making the big plays at time that get us excited about his upside but the snap percentages near 60% limited his ability to have a more consistent floor. This week though, he has such a favorable matchup against the Washington Commanders, that I am happy to fire up Rousseau as a strong DL option.

Washington has allowed one of the highest pressure rates at 29% so for this season, and teams have been able to take advantage of that as well, registering a just as impressive, 24% sack conversion rate. Rousseau has been able to produce in the pressure department this season as well, with 6 pressures on 33 pass-rush attempts for a very good, 18.18% pressure rate. This matchup looks like a great one for Rousseau to register his first sack of the season (and maybe more?).

SIT: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DL35 (Edge 25)

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka was a player I thought had some great “buy-low” value this off-season due to the path to the volume he seemingly had for the Buccaneers for the 2023 season. JTS is in a similar situation he is receiving only 50-60% of the snaps like Rousseau, but he does not have the consistent performances to justify his value.

He is coming off arguably the best game of his career against the Bears, but I would take that with a grain of salt for the time being, as that was a favorable matchup.

Now he gets the Philadelphia Eagles who have one of the lowest numbers in the league for both pressure rate (21%) and sack conversion (6%). The Eagles also showed us their willingness to lean heavily into what is working for them, and if they can establish a successful run game again, pass-rush opportunities could be very hard to come by for JTS and the Bucs.

START: Alex Anzalone, Detroit Lions, LB35

I might get kicked out of The IDP Show space for even suggesting this, but Anzalone seems in line for some great stats this coming Sunday. The Detroit Lions take on the Atlanta Falcons who have been very efficient moving the ball on the ground so far. They are middle of the back after 2 weeks in plays ran but they are 4th in total run plays this season. And their week 1 matchup, plays ran were skewed lower thanks to multiple turnovers in their opponents’ territory for a short field.

Detroit’s defense has not been anything special yet and is likely to allow Atlanta to pile up a good handful of plays again. If we take a look at the 2 primary LBs from those first matchups and what they did combined:

Week 1 – Panthers had 10 combined LB tackles on 51 snaps and Derrick Brown had an outlier 8 tackle game

Week 2 – Packers had 32 combined LB tackles on 82 snaps

The answer likely lies somewhere in the middle, but the game script, Anzalone’s usage, and Arthur Smith’s extreme penchant to run the ball, set nicely for the Detroit LBs and Alex Anzalone.

SIT: Nick Bolton, Kansas City Chiefs, LB10

Nick Bolton is a guy you likely spent high capital getting on your roster and might not be viable to sit him, but at least manage your expectations for this week.

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Chicago Bears and the Bears have not been good on either side of the ball up to this point. This doesn’t bode well for the IDP opportunities and Nick Bolton. First, the low number of plays ran for the Bears since they cannot sustain drives as they are just averaging 60 plays per game so far this year. Then, you pair that with Nick Bolton’s usage of 96% in week 1 and then 79% in week 2! He was not coming off the field last year, and now all of a sudden we are seeing this, it makes me nervous about Bolton’s upside.

Additionally, the Chiefs’ offense should not struggle to move the ball against the Bears’ defense meaning even less time for the Bears to have the ball and run plays for Nick Bolton and the other Chiefs’ IDPs.

You can still start Bolton due to his ability to make plays around the ball and be efficient, but if you can pivot away this week or construct your lineup with a lower floor in mind, I highly recommend it.

START: Dax Hill, Cincinnati Bengals, DB52 (S47)

Dax Hill has had a nice start to this season for the Bengals. However, the Bengals haven’t had the best start to their season. And it has showed with their inability to keep opponents off the field. Hill has already played 99% of the snaps for a total of 147 snaps. Even with the volume, Hill has showed strong efficiency with 10.8% tackle efficiency. He has added an INT and a PBU as well. His sweet spot alignment of 40.8% is not elite, but it is enough to help give his floor in place for IDP production.

Now, enter the Los Angeles Rams who have surprised us with their performances this year and have gotten back some of that magic we saw during their title run in 2021 season. And in doing so, they are leading the NFL in plays ran with 156. This aligns with the Bengals performance this year and I expect more of the same for both the Rams’ offense and the Bengals defense. Even without the the strong efficiency, there is enough volume that Dax Hill should outplay DB52 by quite a bit this week.

SIT: Kyle Dugger, New England Patriots, DB12 (S12)

Kyle Dugger is one of my favorite IDP DBs this season, but you can only do so much in the DB role for IDP. And the opportunity for Dugger this week looks bleak facing off against the New York Jets. They have averaged just under 50 plays a game the first two weeks with Zach Wilson leading the offense. Even if Dugger is getting 100% of the snaps, 49 is not a great opportunity. Pair that with the offensive line of the Jets that is allowing plenty of pressures and sacks already, the chance the ball even gets close to Dugger is not looking great.

The Patriots defense also showed the willingness to play Dugger primarily deep, although, this was likely to help counter the deep routes of Tyreek Hill more than a desire to consistently play him there. He has played 61% either in the box, at DL, or in the slot, but even that ideal usage, might not be enough to see Dugger deliver a top 12 performance this week.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 2

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By Jake

Updated: September 13th 2023

Your offensive side of the ball probably felt a little rough in week 1. But IDP as a whole looked great, and the choices from last week’s article weren’t too bad either. The process checked out for us at DL. LB looked OK, would have liked to see a bit more opportunity for Elliss in pass-rush. The Cowboy’s defense as a unit looked great, but with some big plays and a bad Giants offense, Kearse never did a whole lot. On to week 2!

Week 1 Recap

DL:

Start: Will Anderson Jr (4 solos, 2 assist, TFL, sack, 2 QB hits. 19.1 pts) 👍

Sit: Aidan Hutchinson (3 solos, assist, 3 QB hits. 10.5 pts) 👍

LB:

Start: Kaden Elliss (6 solos, 3 assists. 9.8 pts) 👎

Sit: Jamin Davis (4 solos, 2 assists, TFL. 9.5 pts) 👍

DB:

Start: Jayron Kearse (2 solos, 5 assists. 6.3 pts) 👎

Sit: Jeremy Chinn (3 solos, 4 assists. 6.8 pts) 👍

Week 1 Starts & Sits

START: Khalil Mack, Los Angeles Chargers, DL38 (Edge28)

Khalil Mack against the Titans is shaping up to be a very plus matchup overall. The Titans offensive live was a mess in week 1 with the third worst pressure rate allowed at 29%. The Titans also threw the ball 62.7% of the time last week despite being in a fairly neutral game script. If those things continue and Mack shows us more of what he did in week 1, a sack+ type of game is definitely in the cards. He generated 6 pressures on 35 pass-rush snaps for a whopping 17.1% pass-rush pressure rate. He did not convert any into a sack and his tackles were limited, but I am excited for a potential big game for him this week.

SIT: Quinnen Williams, New York Jets, DL19 (DT2)

“Blasphemy!”… I know. You might not have a better option than Quinnen and I am not saying you can’t start him. But definitely temper expectations this week, in my opinion. The Cowboys just faced a very strong front in the Giants and the Cowboys seemed to have a plan to get the ball out quickly with Dak at a league-low of 2.11 seconds in his time to throw. Pair that with a game script that is very much in question with the Jets offense and its identity without Aaron Rodgers.

I love Quinnen and his one of the top DL’s in the game today and will likely make a handful of plays, but I would reduce expectations, or if you are fortunate enough to have depth at the position, consider others in a better overall situation this week.

START: Azeez Al-Shaair, Tennessee Titans, LB23

On the other side of the Chargers and Titans matchup, Al-Shaair looks like a great play at LB with a Chargers offense that was efficient and able to run a whopping 76 plays last week but more amazingly, had 40 rush attempts. Kellen Moore seems to have a game plan to run the ball so far and Azeez should be able to do a lot of the work in the middle of that defense making plays. His initial performance of 5 total tackles should be an easy top with the upside of 9-10 tackles, assuming league average tackle efficiency of 12%.

I like Azeez as a high-end LB2 with the strong tackle floor and likely, positive game script for the Chargers offense.

SIT: De’Vondre Campbell, Green Bay Packers, LB16

Campbell and the Packers take on the Falcons in week 2 and what appears to be another year of the Arthur Smith “run the ball at all costs” show. The Falcons ran an impressively low 48 plays in their victory in week 1, some of this was due to short fields, and some of it, is just due to the nature of their gameplan.

Campbell did not play 100% of the snaps either, he was closer to 80%. And 80% of 50 snaps at 12% tackle efficiency, is not a great floor. Even if you boost the floor a bit because of a focus on RB targets, it still leaves us wanting more. So without more certainty around snap counts and a less-than-ideal matchup, I am fading Campbell this week.

START: Jevon Holland, Miami Dolphins, DB39 (S38)

Jevon Holland already had a great start in week 1 with 13 total tackles. A lot of this has to do with his strong alignment usage with 22 box snaps and 18 slot snaps; that’s 50% of his snaps in ideal alignment. He did this with a strong PFF performance too, 77+ across the board, and peaking at 86.4 for his overall grade. Now he takes a great week 1 performance into New England. With Bill O’ Brien as the new OC, the Patriots showed they aren’t afraid to air it out and against a strong offense in Miami, it is likely we see the Patriots throwing it a lot again. Holland has a good base with his alignment and this matchup looks like it will be a favorable one for the Dolphins secondary.

SIT: Marcus Maye, New Orleans Saints, DB28 (S27)

Marcus Maye generally plays the “deep safety” role and he played 69.8% of his snaps in that role in week 1 against the Titans. Now he takes on the Panthers and a rookie QB with limited weapons and that showed in how the passing attack looked in week 1. Bryce Young only attempted 2 passes beyond 20 yards and 8 passes beyond 10 yards. This means 28 of his attempts were less than yards downfield. The alignment and the matchup are not a favorable one, for a tackle floor or for the opportunity to make splash plays. Maye is not a great play for this week.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 1

Reply

By Jake

Updated: September 7th 2023

Welcome back, folks! It is time to kick off the 2023 NFL and fantasy season and I can’t think of a better way to do it than to talk Start and Sit options for some of our favorite IDPs. For some context for our newer readers, I am reviewing weekly rankings from Jase Abbey over at TheIDPShow.com and looking for players in that 15-40 range that we should have some greater confidence in (Start) or someone whom we have a little more concern about their output this week (Sit). These aren’t hard and fast recommendations, but hopefully, a great way for you to more thoroughly assess your lineups each week and for the season. Let’s get to it.

Week 1 Starts & Sits

START: Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans, DL27 (Edge 21)

The talent and draft capital for Will Anderson are undeniable. And the matchup against a strong Baltimore Ravens might not be our normal target for an edge rusher matchup. However, when looking for better values for our edge rushers, we love QBs who like to hold on to the ball and Lamar Jackson is one of the best at that. His time to throw last year was second only to Justin Fields and in his 378 dropbacks, teams converted 27 sacks in those dropbacks (7.14%). In the last two years, that conversion rate is at 7.6%. Now the Ravens are set to run more offensive, and specifically, pass plays, we have a floor of 2.5 – 3 sacks given up for the Ravens.

Who better to capitalize on a QB holding on to the ball too long and moving around the pocket, than an edge rusher with the quickness and lateral agility to bring him down behind the line? While he likely won’t play Maxx Crosby volume snaps, Anderson projects as the leader rusher and should see a healthy number of snaps in a shallower edge room. Great volume play, a strong sack upside, Will Anderson is closer to a high-end edge 1 and DL2 for me this week.

SIT: Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions, DL9 (Edge 9)

I love Aidan Hutchinson’s year 2 growth and have plenty of him in my lineups. However, Patrick Mahomes is one of the least sacked QBs over the last 3 years. In fact only 76 times over 2,110 dropbacks for a sack rate of only 3.6%. The game should have an above-average number of plays ran and still some good opportunity based on plays and snaps, but the sack ceiling should be lowered for this matchup.

Hutchinson showed he can make plays in other aspects of the game last year with 3 interceptions, but also had a limited tackle floor with 39 combined tackles. He will likely have an exciting year 2 in 2023, but his campaign is likely to get off to a rocky start. I view Hutchinson more as a mid-to-low end DL2.

START: Kaden Elliss, Atlanta Falcons, LB46

If you have heard me at any point this offseason, you have likely heard me talk about my excitement for Kaden Elliss. There is the contract this offseason, 3 years and $21.5 million. The familiarity with the defensive coordinator, Ryan Nielsen, who was his former DC for the last few years in New Orleans. The strong pass-rush production in his half-season role when Pete Werner was injured. Wearing the green dot this preseason. Needless to say, I am excited to see what Elliss can do with a full-time role.

Week 1, the Falcons and Elliss take on the Panthers. The Panthers have an average, at best, offensive line and have struggled this preseason. Atlanta has struggled to generate a consistent pass rush the last several years, Elliss could be primed for good volume, even in a lower projected matchup with a nice ceiling play too. This combination makes Elliss a high-end LB3 with an upside for even more.

SIT: Jamin Davis, Washington Commanders, LB28

Jamin Davis’s offseason was a bit of a roller coaster. The ups of becoming the clear LB1 for the Commanders and the potential leader of this defense. Then his subsequent off-the-field issues with his reckless driving case and the potential impact to his 2023 season. His case was recently slated for March 2024 and the NFL generally doesn’t pursue until court cases are resolved.

Now coming into week 1, he gets a matchup against the the Arizona Cardinals with the lowest over/under of the week, 38.5. An implied point total of 16 for the Cardinals doesn’t bode well for the offense staying on the field and the Commanders and Jamin Davis making a lot of plays. He has the talent to deliver an LB2 finish this week, but with a weaker floor this week, I am fading Jamin as a low-end LB3.

START: Jayron Kearse, Dallas Cowboys, DB27 (Safety 27)

Dan Quinn and this Cowboys defense have preferred to run three safeties (Kearse, Donovan Wilson, Malik Hooker) with one of them aligning more closely to the line of scrimmage. Kearse has been an IDP beneficiary and the alignment has helped a ton. He spent 74.11% of his snaps last season in either the DL, Box, or Slot alignments. Now with Wilson potentially out for week 1, Kearse should have a strong hold of the valuable snaps.

The New York Giants matchup projects to yield an above-average amount of opportunities for the Dallas Cowboys defense and with a path with reduced resistance for Kearse with Wilson on the shelf for week 1, Kearse has a likely outcome as a midrange DB2 this week.

SIT: Jeremy Chinn, Carolina Panthers, DB22 (Safety 22)

Jeremy Chinn has been an IDP darling since exploding on the scene is rookie year in 2020. This season though, the final year of his rookie contract, Chinn is in a precarious situation with incumbent safety, Xavier Woods who played over 1,000 snaps the last two season and big free agent signing, Vonn Bell. Bell has played over 1,000 snaps the last three seasons. Woods and Bell project to the be primary safeties while Chinn is likely heavily utilized in the slot defender role. Normally slot usage isn’t a death knell for IDP, however, if it is limited and the only role, that is not ideal. And this is what we saw in Chinn’s utilization this preseason.

Pair this with a poor passing performance opponent in the Atlanta Falcons, Chinn’s potential reduced usage, and the crowded safety room, Chinn doesn’t feel like a safe play for me and I would have him as a low-end DB3.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 16

Reply

By Jake

Updated: December 22nd 2022

I hope just like this article, you and your fantasy team are moving on to week 16! But if not, you can come read and learn a bit about end of year and get a head start on players and things to watch for moving forward too! Regardless, I hope you and yours have a healthy and happy holidays!! Now let’s play some IDP fantasy football.
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show are the ECR from Fantasy Pros each week.

WEEK 15 RECAP
DL:
Start: Azeez Ojulari (0.5 sack, 2 solos, 2 assists, 2 QB hits. A solid game, easily overshadowed by Kayvon’s huge game)
Start: Kwity Paye (Sack, 5 solos, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits. Paye flashing a strong game.)

Sit: Jeffery Simmons (Sack, 4 solos, 2 assists, TFL, QB hit. Simmons’ ankle seemed fine and he delivered in a big way)

LB:

Start: Jack Sanborn (5 solos. He didn’t goose you, but could’ve been so much more if he didn’t get hurt early in the 3rd quarter)

Start: Zaire Franklin (6 solos, 4 assist, FF. Another strong game)

Sit: Devin Lloyd (7 solos, 2 assists. Lloyd looking the rookie LB for the rest of this season, at least)

DB:
Start: Andrew Adams (4 solos, 2 assists. For where he was ranked and probably available, not a terrible performance)

Start: Marcus Jones (4 solos, assist, PD, 25 return yards. He took 2 offensive snaps, no stats. Saw 100% of the IDP snaps though)

Sit: Jalen Thompson (3 solos, 6 assists. Strong delivery in the tackle game, a lot of assisted tackles though.)

START: Greg Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL27

Greg Rousseau has done a wonderful job as a pass-rusher this season and his PFF grade shows this with a very good 81.2 grade for the season. He also been a capable starter at times for our IDP rosters. This week against Chicago is shaping up to be another one of those weeks. In every game with at least 8 pass-rush snaps, Rousseau has posted a minimum of 3 pressures (per PFF). He has converted that into 8 sacks for a very respectable season so far. Enter the Bears who have an offensive line that is tied for 8th worst in pressures allowed (26%) and tied for 4th worst in sack conversion allowed (19%). This paired with Justin Fields tendency to hold on to the ball for a long time, he has the longest time to throw of any QB this season who has taken at least 100 drop backs, will allow for an athletic Edge player like Rousseau to find his way home for a big play. Rousseau is a strong DL2 play this week, with DL1 upside.

START: Jaelan Phillips, Miami Dolphins, DL47

Jaelan Phillips may sound familiar to you if you read this article every week. I liked him a few weeks ago, and I liked what he had for his playoff run as well. He had a strong game against the Bills this last week and I believe in him moving forward. Rousseau had a wonderful PFF pass-rush grade, but Phillips is just phenomenal. He has a season grade of 89.2! And his last 5 games highlight this especially. Over that stretch he is averaging 4.6 pressures, 1.0 sack, 1.2 QB hits, and 2.4 hurries per game. He clearly has the tools and the talent, welcome in the Packers for week 16. Now Green Bay boasts one of the better pressures allowed rate, tied for 4th best (22%), however, when they do allow pressures, they are more likely to turn into sacks, tied for 12th worst (17%). In a matchup that both teams need the win, I expect big plays and the effort to match from both sides and I see Phillips as high-end DL2 this week.

SIT: J.J. Watt, Arizona Cardinals, DL29

J.J. Watt looked like vintage Watt in week 15, with 3 sacks! While we love the positive news for a former FFIDP legend (2013-2015 Watt was insane!), but I do not like what week 16 could bring for Watt and his FFIDP output. A matchup of two savvy vets trying to make the most out of their season in Watt versus Tampa Bay and Tom Brady. Tampa Bay and all the complaints about their offensive line, Brady has found a way to operate within it and try to make it work. And that way is with very quick passes as Brady has the second fastest time to throw out of all QBs that have taken at least 100 drop backs (2.33 seconds). Brady will probably see some pressure, but I would expect very limited pass-rush production for Watt this week. Tampa is middle of the back at 15th best pressure rate (23%) but are tied for 5th best for sack conversion rate (10%). J.J. is someone I would consider in the DL4 range, which would make in unplayable in most formats.

START: Joe Thomas, Chicago Bears, LB67

First of all, a huge shoutout to Jack Sanborn and the fun and amazing performances he gave to FFIDP and the Chicago Bears after the Roquan Smith trade. However, his season is officially over after being placed on injured reserve. With his injury, welcome in Joe Thomas. In his replacement of Sanborn, Joe Thomas gave produced 6 combined tackles, sack, TFL, QB hit and all in 43 snaps. I am not saying he will produce big-play upside this week, but at LB67, his tackle efficiency and production has strong potential as he looks like a full-time role replacement for Chicago, which has been very productive for the non-Mike LB role this year. Joe Thomas is a low-end LB3 this week.

START: Deion Jones, Cleveland Browns, LB40

Cleveland’s LB room has been an ambiguous mess for FFIDP for good portions of the year… and we once again, have some semblance of clarity. It only took injuries to almost every other LB first (Anthony Walker, Sione Takitaki, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Jacob Phillips to name a few). But now, we have Deion Jones, the man standing above the rubble. This really is a matter of volume for Jones at this point and he appears to have it all. 88% in week 14 but now last week, he was the only LB to see over 30 total snaps (out of their 63 total). That type of solitary volume is hard to find and makes him a strong LB3 this week in their matchup against the Saints.

SIT (fade): Jamin Davis, Washington Commanders, LB32

Jamin Davis has done a solid job taking on the lead role since Cole Holcomb’s injury for the Commanders in week 7. And in the last 3 weeks he has looked like a better FFIDP lineup option as well racking up an average of 9.7 combined tackles in that span. However, at this point in the season, we do have the luxury of understanding what a matchup can mean to a positional group and as such, the San Francisco 49ers, are one of the worst matchups for a LB. If you want to take a look at some of the data, I strongly recommend checking out @moncal on Twitter. He does a wonderful job capturing this information and sharing it out there. For this week, the 49ers offer the worst expected LB performances over season average. This makes Davis a strong fade for me and I would consider starting him if you truly have “no other options” in that LB3/4 range.

START: Tariq Woolen, Seattle Seahawks, DB34

Tariq Woolen has been an amazing story this year for what was supposed to be a rebuilding Seattle Seahawks. They yet again, find a 5th round corner, to come into the league and deliver from year 1. Now, what he can do for his career, we have to wait and see. But for week 16, against the Kansas City Chiefs, this is a good FFIDP matchup. The Chiefs are the 3rd highest passing team with 551 pass attempts, they have a QB in Mahomes that loves to make difficult throws, that lead to turnover worthy plays, which he has 15 of on the year (tied for 13th worst) and this has resulted in 11 interceptions (tied for 3rd worst). Woolen has already shown a penchant for play-making with his 6 INTs and 6 PDs. Woolen is high-end DB3 for me with DB2 upside.

START: Jason Pinnock, New York Giants, DB48

Jason Pinnock has stepped with the injury to Xavier McKinney and coach Daboll has already confirmed that McKinney will not be back this week and is out against the Vikings. This gives him the full-time, albeit as the deep safety primarily for the Giants. However, the Vikings are one of the more pass-happy teams in the NFL and aren’t shy about it. Cousins is 4th on total pass attempts at 544 and I would expect more of the same this week. What is more important, is that Cousins leads the NFL in attempts (127) in the intermediate area of the field (10-19 yards downfield) which is a wonderful area to get that deep safety involved! Pinnock is a low-ceiling play this week, but has a strong floor for a full-time safety and should be closer to a high-end DB4 with DB3 upside.

SIT (fade): Donovan Wilson, Dallas Cowboys, DB10

Dallas has had a three-headed approach to safety most of this year with Donovan Wilson, Jayron Kearse, and Malik Hooker. This has led to some up and down usage at times, but when all are healthy, Wilson is generally seeing the lower snaps of the three. Along that note, Kearse and Wilson are generally taking on the “box” role but Kearse is doing it with greater frequency as well as more snaps in the slot too. With a very important game against division rival, the Eagles, you would expect a big performance from the defense. But I have reservations about Donovan Wilson as a DB1. It would take a setback for Jayron Kearse to not play to have this level of confidence. But Kearse did a routine of Limited Practice, Limited, Full Participant and played a full complement of snaps last week and is trending exactly the same this week. I have Wilson close to a DB3 this week.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 8

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By Jake

Updated: October 27th 2022

Week 7 is in the rearview mirror and we have a smaller amount of byes this week, but we still want to dig into our lineups and find those ideal matchups, positive or negative trends, or some potential buys / sells. Week 7’s starts and sits played out pretty well for the most part, and we should have a newer crowd joining in now with our recent inclusion with the IDP Show! For those who are not familiar, with this article, we are trying to identify some of those fringe players or deeper plays for our IDP lineups. With that brief reset, let’s get ourselves into week 8 with this week’s callouts.

WEEK 7 RECAP
DL:
Start: Dorance Armstrong (1 solo, 2 assist, 1 sack, FR, TFL, QB hit)

Sit: Emmanuel Ogbah (Inactive, hopefully you pivoted to have a backup)

LB:

Start: Nicholas Morrow (3 solos, 2 assists)

Sit: Cody Barton (5 solos)

DB:
Start: Deshon Elliott (5 solos, 4 assist, TFL. Snaps trending down, pay attention)

Sit: Justin Simmons (3 solos)

START: Kayvon Thibodeaux, New York Giants, DL31

Since returning from injury, Thibodeaux has seen consistent usage in this Giants defense. Since Week 3, he’s averaged 77% of snaps, including 84.3% in the last 3 games. He’s also seeing unique utilization and pre-snap alignment in Wink Martindale’s defense, which is thriving with blue-chip talents like Thibodeaux. The pressures have been there too, with 13 over the past 4 games. However, those pressures have only resulted in 1 sack. While the conversion rate of 7.6% is disappointing, keep in mind Thibodeaux just finished his 5th NFL game. What should be encouraging at this point is the number of pressures because that tells us: the sacks are coming. And there’s room to improve that pressure rate, which has been 10.7% over the last 4 games. Week 7 looks like a favorable matchup against Seattle, which allows a slightly below-average pressure rate, but the conversion-to-sack rate is one of the highest so far this year. And with the amount of pressure that the Giants have been bringing this year, it looks like a great time to fire up Thibodeaux!

START: Rasheem Green, Houston Texans, DL51

Green doesn’t have perfect usage, but it is still ideal as a baseline. His snap percentage over the last 5 games has been 57%, good for 38 snaps a game. The Texans have put Greenard on IR this past week creating a bigger need from the DL rotation. He has shown increased success in the run game in the past weeks (73.2 week 4, 89.2 week 5) along with a good 11.2% pass-rush pressure rate. The upcoming matchup with the Titans offer two paths to success with Tennessee’s current QB situation. Tannehill plays and the Titans 31st ranked offensive line in terms of pressure rate allowed. Green should find a way to get after an injured Tannehill with the favorable matchup and previous success. Now if Malik Willis is taking snaps, you might think he is too mobile for Green to be effective. But, the real catch is, younger, mobile QBs they tend to hold on to the ball much longer in an attempt to make plays or due to inexperience reading a defense. This leads to increased sack opportunities in its own right. Green is an upside play, but this is a great week to go for it!

SIT: Chandler Jones, Las Vegas Raiders, DL38

Chandler Jones is a well-known IDP name for those who have played, however, his time might be past now. Chandler converted his first sack (only a 1/2 as well) this week. He has had below average pass-rush pressure rate at 7.6%. This week he gets a below average matchup against New Orleans. They are allowing only a 23% pressure rate (tied 9th best) and 14% sack conversion (tied 14th best). On top of the poor IDP performances, his PFF grades are some of the lowest of his long career. The final kicker to this? He is doing this while Maxx Crosby is dominating and drawing almost all of the attention along that defensive front too. It might be a time to move on from all of our shares of Chandler Jones if you are still holding.

START: Quay Walker, Green Bay Packers, LB30

Quay has come on strong for a rookie playing an average of 45 snaps per game and 76% of the total snaps with De’Vondre Campbell entrenched as the LB1. He has found a way to be efficient with his time with a very good 16% tackle efficiency, which at this point should be indicative of what we should expect to see most games this year. Even with a less than ideal snap count below 80% or being closer to 90%, the Buffalo Bills are the matchup this week and are top 10 in plays run this year as well as top 10 in passing plays ran. Quay has shown a greater strength in coverage while needing some work in run defense. The Bills are an ideal matchup for Quay to produce numbers this week. And we will see the Packers defense in this matchup once more in this article. #foreshadowing

START: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Cleveland Browns, LB27

The Cleveland Browns have had a very ambiguous linebacker room for most of this year. Things only got more unclear with the signing of Deion Jones. However, Jacob Phillips injury (pectoral, season-ending) should set us up for the rest of the year. Jones seems to be the one (and has the experience of it) to wear the green dot for play calling and see close to 100% of snaps, if not this next, then the following. Who steps up into that LB2 role should JOK. He saw his highest snap count this past week, one of his best graded games per PFF this year, and made a beautiful punch out for the game to keep Cleveland fighting in the game. The biggest challenge to snaps would be the next LB in Sione Takitaki and his usage would align more with Jones leaving JOK’s snaps safe for him. JOK may not be a 100% snap player this season, but he will see enough snaps to be relevant. Finally, his matchup this week against Cincinnati and their significant uptick in passing rate in all game scripts, bode well for JOK to be involved quite a bit on Monday night.

SIT: Tae Crowder, New York Giants, LB68

Tae Crowder was the guy to start the year with 3 out of the first 4 weeks having 100% of the snaps. The last two weeks we saw it drop under 70% and with Landon Collins getting acclimated more, Crowder’s snaps are even more in danger. This alongside his bottom of the barrel performances per PFF grading (29.4 overall) Crowder’s job does not look very secure. He additionally has missed 11 tackles already this season too. He is someone that you should be looking to move on from for the season and if anyone sees value, try and move on.

START: Adrian Amos, Green Bay Packers, DB50

Adrian Amos has had great usage this year, outside of week 4’s injury against the Patriots, with 100% outside of that. And his sweet spot alignment (box, slot, DL) has been up over the last 3 weeks at 59%!! This is reflected in his production uptick too, 20 combined tackles, TFL, QB hit in the last 3 games. These games have also seen more defensive snaps versus some earlier games, but that should still be the case this week as the Packers take on the Buffalo Bills Sunday night. This should be a 65+ snap game and that combined with the ideal and increased sweet spot usage, Amos is a strong play this week.

START: Eric Rowe, Miami Dolphins, DB45

This is one of the worst reasons for someone to move up the board, but with Brandon Jones season-ending ACL injury, Eric Rowe is next in line to play more snaps. Eric was already cutting into Jones’ usage in smaller bits when they were both healthy and active this season. Miami’s defense loves to utilize their safeties up in the box and blitz them with good frequency too. This is a nice pick up and play option for streaming or taking the big upside swing for a sack or turnover (assuming your league has big play scoring).

SIT: Kyle Dugger, New England Patriots, DB27

Kyle Dugger was an IDP fantasy darling his first two years in the league and has made some big plays already this year (59 yard fumble return for TD in week 5, INT and 2 PDs in week 6). However, this season has been plagued with some injury and with the Belichick-ien way rotating defensives players, Adrian Phillips, Devin McCourty, Jabrill Peppers, and Kyle Dugger the key players in this conversation, missing time is not a great way to try and lock in your spot. Limited usage combined with the matchup of the Jets this week, who are only running 54 plays per game offensively means a very small pool of opportunities. Now Dugger can make big plays for sure, but the injury limitations, the reduced snap count, and overall limited chances against the Jets, let’s give Dugger a week to rest on your fantasy bench.

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