IDP Start/Sit: Week 14

Updated: December 6th 2023

This is it. This is our last push for the playoffs (hopefully you wonderful readers have already locked that up though!). But just in case you need a little help finding some decisions or considerations for your lineups this week, let’s dive into my thoughts for week 14.

Week 13 Recap

DL:

Start: Osa Odighizuwa (3 solos, 3 assists,Qb hit, TFL) 👍

Sit: Denico Autry (3 solos, 1assist, 1 sack, QB hit, FF, PD) 👎

LB:

Start: Jack Campbell (4 solos, 5 assists, 2 TFLs) 👍 – Only on 79% snaps, efficient, talent, but not locked in

Sit: Markquese Bell (4 solos, 4 assists) 👎

DB:

Start: Jordan Battle (4 solos, 3 assists, TFL, 1 sack, QB hit, PD) 👍

Sit: Richie Grant (1 solo, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 FF) 👎 – Big play made the day for him this week

Week 14 Starts & Sits

START: Samson Ebukam, Indianapolis Colts, DL38 (ED31)

7-5 for the Colts is a bit of a surprise with some of the injuries that they have had to overcome. What has been a contributing factor to these surprising results? The play of that defensive front is a big part of this. DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye for sure, but Samson Ebukam has been very good for this front. But especially good over his last 3 games. 4 sacks, but has a 16.45% pressure rate, which is 6 points higher than his 10.14% pressure rate for the entire season. Enter the Cincinnati Bengals with a 27% pressure rate allowed this season as well as a 15% sack conversion rate on those pressures. Pair that with the Bengals seemingly more willing to utilize their passing attack with backup Jake Browning under center, this should set up for a favorable matchup and a good volume of opportunities for Ebukam.

SIT: Chase Young, San Francisco 49ers, DL20 (ED18)

It seems like nothing can stop the San Francisco 49ers recently. While the offense looks great, the defense is doing its part, too. And the addition of Chase Young was a very solid move for this team. However, in his 4 games with the 49ers, it has been feast or famine. 2 sacks and 1 tackle are his 4 games total. His 14.19% pressure rate over the time would leave us to believe he is an ideal play against the Seahawks this week and their usually favorable matchup. However, last week they showed a changeup in their offense to mitigate a strong Cowboys pass rush. They went to a very quick passing attack with Geno Smith’s time to throw of 2.31 seconds, which was way down from his season average of 2.76 (which includes this most recent game). The offense was successful, they didn’t surrender a sack, and this doesn’t look great for the 49ers pass-rush. Especially Chase Young, who doesn’t seem to have a tackle floor either.

START: Mykal Walker, Pittsburgh Steelers, LB27

Mykal Walker has been a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers for three whole weeks now. And due to some unfortunate health in the linebacker room, Walker has seen his role continue to increase, as well. Elandon Robert’s most recent groin injury is just the latest news in this ongoing saga. With his increased time in Pittsburgh, we have seen his production rise each week as well (from 3 tackles to 5 to 11 this last week). While his overall numbers are average in terms of efficiency, he is getting a very favorable matchup for LB tackle production in the New England Patriots. Their offensive situation over the last 3 games has netted an average of 20 tackles to the LB position for the Patriots’ opponents. This should be an ideal game for Mykal Walker to deliver above-average efficiency and increased volume due to the injuries, which will lead to a very good week for Mykal.

SIT: Nicholas Morrow, Philadelphia Eagles, LB30

Nicholas Morrow has been involved in another linebacker room that has dealt with a litany of injuries this season. It has even seen Morrow go from a starter to a backup role, and back to the starter again. While no one will argue Morrow’s ability to be on the field, align a defense, and play his role, his IDP production has been one of mediocre value at times throughout his career. This season has shown to be similar with a 9.61% tackle efficiency, almost 4 points lower than the league average and closer to safety tackle efficiency. With a crucial week 14 matchup against their division rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, there is little concern as the last 3 weeks, the Cowboys’ opponents have only seen 15.3 tackles for the LB position. The inefficient play, combined with the less-than-favorable matchup, means Morrow is a fade for me.

START: Kyle Hamilton, Baltimore Ravens, DB34 (S26)

Kyle Hamilton has seen his IDP production shift a bit this year, as well as his alignment and utilization. Primarily deep safety, slot role, box safety, deep, and back to slot defender. And this has been his primary role now for the last three weeks taking over 40 snaps a week there. While his tackle production has been average at just under 5 a game during this period (that’s with a 1 tackle performance), we have seen him generate 5 pressures, 4 hurries, and a QB hit. He also has 2 PD’s to boot. The Rams matchup this week is less favorable for safeties overall in terms of tackle production, but Hamilton is more of a slot defender or box safety, which aren’t like your traditional safeties. Hamilton has shown a respectable tackle floor but his big-play upside is a great reason for him to deliver this week against the Los Angeles Rams.

SIT: Jalen Pitre, Houston Texans, DB36 (S28)

Jalen Pitre is less than 1 season removed from an outstanding 144-tackle performance. This season has seen him regress to the mean as he is on a 93-tackle pace over a 17-game span. His alignment this year is a bit down from last year as well with 43% of his snaps coming from the sweet spot. Even with his reduction in production, and shifted utilization, Pitre is still a relatively consistent IDP performer. What makes him less-than-ideal this week, is the matchup against the New York Jets. The Jets are providing league-low tackles to their opponents’ safeties at 9.6 per game, with the last 3 games averaging 6.0. That is an extremely small pie to divide up among others, let alone one’s self. Pitre is a pass for me in week 14

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 13

Updated: November 29th 2023

 

Welcome to week 13, our penultimate matchup before the playoffs! Let’s get those lineups ready again as we secure our first-round byes, or our spots in the playoff, or at the very least, play spoiler to those still in it!

Week 12 Recap

DL:

Start: Will Anderson Jr. (2 solos, 2 assists, TFL) 👎

Sit: Shaquil Barrett (3 solos, assist) 👍

LB:

Start: Ivan Pace Jr. (7 solos, 2 assists, sack, TFL, QB hit) 👍

Sit: Frankie Luvu (Solo, assist) 👎

DB:

Start: Jonathan Owens (8 solos, 4 assists, TFL, FR, Def TD) 👍

Sit: Jevon Holland (5 solos, INT, PD, Def TD) 👎

Week 13 Starts & Sits

START: Osa Odighizuwa, Dallas Cowboys, DL60 (DT18)

Osa Odighizuwa, he not only has a fun name to say, but he also has the production to get into our IDP lineups. This is especially true in week 13. Osa has had a great year in terms of his pass rush success. He has a pass-rush pressure rate of 13.65% and he has a pass-rush win rate of 24.25% on the season. These are outstanding numbers, however, they have not resulted fully in the sack numbers you’d expect. I’d expect to see him with close to 5 sacks versus the 3 he has produced year-to-date. Getting a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks should help with that this week. They are allowing pressures on 32% of all dropbacks while 15% of those are being converted into sacks. This is a strong matchup for Odighizuwa to add to his sack total this season.

SIT: Denico Autry, Tennessee Titans, DL40 (ED27)

Denico Autry has had a wonderful season. 8 sacks is a great season for most pass-rushers, but Autry is at that number through 11 games and obviously pushing for more. Autry has been an bit of an over-producer this season though, with those 8 sacks coming on 32 pressures. And as we looked at with Osa, we would expect his sack total to be closer to 5 sacks at this point. His pass-rush production numbers are solid, but not elite either that it would lead me to believe that he is a true outlier with 10.22% pass rush rate and a 15.0% pass rush win rate. This week, Autry gets a less than ideal matchup in the Indianapolis Colts who are allowing only a 23% pressure rate per dropback this season and only 7% of those pressures are converted into sacks. This is a week where Autry likely regresses back to the mean.

START: Jack Campbell, Detroit Lions, LB41

Jack Campbell has been an IDP rookie darling of mine since the draft cycles this off-season. Now, due to an unfortunate injury, he might get the full-time role I was hoping he’d have secured by this point. Either way, Campbell has been quietly delivering a respectable baseline for IDP production. He has 49 tackles at a 12.82% efficiency. This is very average, but for a first year player, that is a good baseline to be achieving already. He has added a handful of splash plays, too. Week 13 is a good matchup as well, heading to New Orleans Jack Campbell is facing a Saints offense that is providing an average of 19.2 tackles per game to the linebacker position. Even at an even split with Derrick Barnes, that is still likely to yield an 8 – 10 tackle floor for them and Campbell is should easily take advantage this week.

SIT: Markquese Bell, Dallas Cowboys, LB36

Markquese Bell has stepped up in his role with the injuries and uncertainty at linebacker this year for the Cowboys. Starting in week 6 we have seen snap percentages of 53%, 73%, 94%, 39%, 85%, and 77%. The numbers have been relatively consistent, but Rashaan Evans has slowly been seeing his integration and snaps increasing as well, even if smaller. But that reduction is coming at the extent of someone else at times, and it seems to be Bell. It also doesn’t help that they already have an established safety group of three as well in Kearse, Wilson, and Malik Hooker that limits Bell’s ability to stay on the field. Pair the snap count concerns with the Seattle Seahawks matchup this weekend in a team that is only yielding 14.7 tackles per game to the linebabcker position, I do not like Bell’s range of outcomes this week.

START: Jordan Battle, Cincinnati Bengals, DB32 (S28)

Rookie Jordan Battle is getting his opportunity this season due to injuries, but he has gone ahead and made the most of that. Filling in early two weeks ago and getting his frist fultime starting game, Battle quickly made the most of it with 19 total tackles. He projected as a strong tackling safety during the NFL draft process but has shown he can deliver that on the NFL field. While this is a small sample size, we love the production, but we also love the utilization. 58.26% of his snaps these last two weeks have come from the sweet spot alignments but his box utilization saw a jump from 18 snaps to 31 once after a week of preparing the defense with Battle known as the starter. Again, small sample sizes, but we are at the end of the season and we cannot wait several weeks to figure out some of these new roles and opportunities. But we can react to the information we have seen the teams already do. Battle should be a strong start while he maintains this role.

SIT: Richie Grant, Atlanta Falcons, DB25 (S23)

Richie Grants was a defensive back I had a lot of belief in coming into this season. Unfortunately, that has not been the case for his third season in the NFL. It has shown not only in his reduction in IDP production, but some of his worst PFF grades, especially is his overall defense and coverage grades. Most concerning though, is the last two weeks he has dipped below 100% snap percentage and this last week it was down to 75%! Up to this point, he has delivered slightly above average tackle efficiency, but if he isn’t producing outlier numbers and his utilization is going to drop, his IDP production becomes concerning on a week-to-week basis. Enter the New York Jets for this week, they are allowing the lowest numbers of tackles to opposing safeties at 9.9 per game.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 12

Updated: November 23rd 2023

 

The goods were good… the bads were misses. With Thanksgiving upon us this week, let’s be thankful for our family, friends, and hopefully some great lineups this weekend!

Week 11 Recap

DL:

Start: Kyle Van Noy (2 solos, 1 TFLs, 1 QB hit. 1 sack) 👍

Sit: Montez Sweat (1 solo, 1 assist, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit, 1 sack) 👎

LB:

Start: Elandon Roberts (11 solos, 4 assists, 2 TFLs) 👍 – Great week AND 100% snap count!

Sit: De’Vondre Campbell (6 solos, 1 assists, 1 TFL) 👎 

DB:

Start: Kevin Byard (4 solos, 1 assist, TFL, 2 PDs) 👍

Sit: Jalen Pitre (4 solos, 2 assists, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit) 👎

Week 12 Starts & Sits

START: Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans, DL35 (ED28)

Will Anderson may not have the gaudy sack numbers so far this rookie campaign. He has three sacks through his first 10 games 32 tackles. But he has made his impact felt in games, look further than week 11 where he recorded a sack but also caused the pressure/hurry on the final play of the game that led to the incompletion on 4th down and sealed the Texans’ victory. He has been winning in his pass rush sets 22.0% of the time (27th among edge rushers) and has a 13.1% pass pressure rate. While this hasn’t create gaudy stats, this week’s matchup against the Jaguars is a plus matchup. Their pressure rate allowed is slightly above average at 25%, but the pressures they do allow are converted into sacks at the third highest rate at 19%. For a player who is winning his matchups consistently, this should be an ideal week for him to capitalize.

SIT: Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DL38 (ED30)

Shaquil Barrett has had a very nice season bouncing back from his Achilles injury. Through his 10 games this year he has delivered 4 sacks and 34 total tackles this season. His overall success in his pass rush sets though has not been as strong at a 14.9% rate. It is above average but not great, but he has delivered a strong 13.1% pass rush pressure rate. This split has given us some solid production, but the matchup this week against the Indianapolis Colts is not the best one if Barrett can’t win his matchups consistently. The Colts have the 5th lowest pressure rate allowed at 23% and the 3rd lowest conversion rate of those pressures into sacks at 8%. Barrett just hasn’t won enough and consistently in his sets to feel good about this week.

START: Ivan Pace, Minnesota Vikings, LB31

Ivan Pace was a draft darling for me, but going undrafted put a damper on that for sure. However, landing in Minnesota gave me hope and he showed up early in the season but saw those quickly fade as well. However, the injury to Jordan Hicks has reignited his opportunity and this week should be a week that continues to showcase Pace. In his last two games as a starter and seeing 50+ snaps he has compiled 15 total tackles (13.5% tackle efficiency) and a forced fumble. This week he gets the Chicago Bears whose tackles allowed to LBs this season have not been ideal, but with the return of Justin Fields, it has seen a nice jump up. And what better way to try and highlight Pace’s ability in a plus matchup against the Bears?

SIT: Frankie Luvu, Carolina Panthers, LB29

Frankie Luvu was an amazing revelation last season for IDP. He did it with a great floor in terms of tackle production (103 combined) but had the boosted upside of his pass rush (7 sacks). This year started off down that same exact path with 12 tackles and 4 sacks over just the first two weeks. Since then? 1 sack and 67 tackles. He has done a wonderful maintaining that tackle production and efficiency this year, however, outside of those first two weeks he has only produced 1 sack and this lack of pass-rush production aligns pretty closely with his switch to the Mike LB after seeing Shaq Thompson get injured. But isn’t his strong tackle floor enough to keep him in the top 30 LBs this week? In most cases, yes, but facing the Titans this week, they have one of the lower tackle productions allowed to the LB position which lowers Luvu’s floor overall. And if his pass rush upside is limited to none, and his tackle floor reduced, he is a fade for me this week.

START: Jonathan Owens, Green Bay Packers, DB31 (S25)

Jonathan Owens got a chance to be a starter in week 8 of this season, but it is how he has been utilized over these last three weeks and the results that have me excited for this week 12 matchup. Over the last three weeks, Owens has seen his sweet spot alignment jump to 53.47%! He has also piled up 20 combined tackles for 6.3 tackles per game. There is no reason for this usage and alignment to change this week which gives us great confidence in his utilization. Also, enter the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving which is a favorable matchup for their opponents’ safeties, like a top 10 favorable matchup! Owens is a very comfortable play this week who can deliver a great tackle floor.

SIT: Jevon Holland, Miami Dolphins, DB29 (S23)

Jevon Holland has had a very consistent year so for for IDP. Delivering almost 7 total tackles a game with 62 tackles over his 9 games this season. His utilization is a respectable 46.6% from the sweet spot as well, which is good, but not great. Holland has been able to be IDP relevant with average utilization though. However, one thing that can be killer to a player’s IDP production, is an opponent that cannot sustain drives or push the ball down field where safeties have an opportunity to make more plays. This week, Holland gets the Jets and newly minted starting QB, Tim Boyle. Holland is still likely to deliver some base value due to his ability, but his overall ceiling is drastically lowered and becomes an unfavorable play for me this Friday.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 8

Updated: October 28th 2023

 

Week 7 was the first of the big “bye-magedon” weeks (we see you week 13 and your 6 teams on bye). However, I feel like we navigated those waters well enough to get us through to week 8 and full rosters again. Now, let’s find those best plays and matchups this week.

Week 7 Recap

DL:

Start: Dexter Lawrence (2 sacks, 2 solos, 4 assists, TFL, 4 QB hits, ) 👍

Sit: Leonard Floyd (0 sacks, 0 tackles) 👍

LB:

Start: Dorian Williams (3 solos, 2 assists) 👎- I have no idea who is going to lock in LB2 in Buffalo

Sit: Eric Kendricks (7 solos, 2 assists, TFL, FF) 👎 

DB:

Start: Grant Delpit (7 solos, 3 assists, TFL) 👍

Sit: Rudy Ford (4 solos, 3 assists) 👎

Week 8 Starts & Sits

START: Bryce Huff, New York Jets, DL37 (ED28)

Bryce Huff has been on an absolute tear this year from an analytical standpoint. It starts with a top 25 win rates out pass rush set at 25%. Even crazier, his pass-rush pressure rate of 29.8%. 1 out of 4 pass rush snaps Huff is winning his rep, he is creating a pressure. His sample is smaller than others at 147 total snaps over 6 games (114 pass rush snaps), but the numbers look too good to pass up on. There is also talk of Carl Lawson trade rumors because he is “looking for more playing time” leads me to believe, Huff has earned his spot in this rotation and it is only trending up at this point. Also, over his last 3 games he is averaging 30 snaps per game and 7.6 pressures per game. Enter the New York Giants who have been experiencing 15.5 pressures per game over the last two weeks with Tyrod Taylor under center, and he is set to start his 3rd game this Sunday. Huff may be a bit “risky” due to lower volume, but the positive matchup and the torrid levels of success, I can’t help but be excited to play Bryce Huff this week!

SIT: Jonathan Allen, Washington Commanders, DL36 (DT09)

Jonathan Allen is one of the elite interior defenders of the NFL for sure, however for IDP, this isn’t an ideal week for him. Jonathan Allen could definitely make his week based on his talent and if you don’t have a better option, I understand that, but Allen has struggled over his last 2 games, only generating 3 pressures over 80 pass rush attempts. He has had a very good pass rush win percentage on the season, 19.6%. The recent down performances are not likely to be remedied in a matchup with arguably the best offensive line in the NFL on the other side of the ball. They are tied for the 11th-lowest pressure percentage allowed this year and the 4th-best in terms of pressures converted into sacks. Allen is looking for a bounce-back performance from two down weeks, but I don’t think this is the week for it.

START: Denzel Perryman, Houston Texans, LB33

Denzel Perryman was a “healthy scratch” in week 6, however, coach Demeco Ryans said this was due to the fact it wasn’t fair to try and have Perryman play with a cast. Pair that with the fact the following week was their bye week, I believe he wanted to get Perryman back to 100%. What does 100% Perryman look like? A highly efficient 16.9% tackle efficiency, near 100% snap count, and his career tackle efficiency supports this at 15.7% too. With both teams coming off their bye weeks, the Texans and Perryman take on the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers come in with an offense that runs the 5th most plays per week at 67.3 and are running 67 over the last three weeks. Now 64% of those plays are pass plays, but 63% of those pass plays are 9 yards or less down field and the zone-heavy scheme the Texans run, should allow Perryman to deliver strong value this week.

SIT: Cole Holcomb, Pittsburgh Steelers, LB30

Holcomb has been the LB1 for the Steelers all season. However, he has not been the LB1 that we like to see in that his snaps have fluctuated a bit, whereas our true LB1’s tend to play close to, if not all 100% of the snaps for their defense. His efficiency with those lower snap counts are quite average as well at 12.2%. Normally we can work through a player with average efficiency and/or even less than ideal utilization. But when we pair that with positional adjusting scoring and the player is facing one of the worst possible matchups for scoring for their position, that turns into a fade for me. Cole Holcomb against the Jacksonville Jaguars is exactly that. The Jaguars allow LB scoring against them at the 8th lowest rates for IDP scoring. Let’s lower our expectations for Holcomb this week.

START: Jamal Adams, Seattle Seahawks, DB40 (S34)

Jamal Adams was back last week and he was back in such a good way for IDP. He was 100% snaps, which is just the first part of this story. He took all but 3 snaps either in the box, on the DL, or in the slot. With snaps in the box. Now his efficiency was a bit average with only 6 tackles, we would have liked to see a slightly better performance. But in really only his true second game of playtime, I think we can expect a little bit of ramp-up. With his role seemingly more set now, the Seahawks take on the Cleveland Browns who lead the NFL in plays ran at 71.2 and an average of 69 over the last 3 games. The additional upside of the pass-rushing opportunities he saw last week of 4 chances is what really rounds out Jamal Adams’ value. He has elite alignment/utilization, a favorable matchup, and the usage for some potential big-play upside, too. 

SIT: Richie Grant, Atlanta Falcons, DB38 (S33)

Richie Grant has been an average NFL safety. If you look across the board at his PFF grades, it supports this as well. This has been the case for his IDP performance up to this point for 2023 as well. 42 tackles across his 7 games for 6 tackles a game and a tackle efficiency of 9.4% is right in line of averages for safeties this season. He has provided a consistent floor for sure and can be played with that consideration, but he has provided limited upside with one splash play with an interception last week. He has played 100% of the snaps this year as well, which we can certainly appreciate. But with a fairly limited upside combined with a matchup this week against the Tennessee Titans whose offense was already the 2nd lowest plays ran this season at 55.5 plays per game. Now they are likely missing their QB1 with Tannehill out this week, the offense should likely get weaker and limit the ability of this offense even more, thus reducing Grant’s limited upside even more.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 17

Updated: December 28th 2022

This is it. The final week of most fantasy seasons. This was my worst week of the year and I hope it didn’t cost any of you readers your matchups. My apologies and it motivates me to get you those right plays for your matchups. Let’s lock down those lineups and support one last victory!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show are the ECR from Fantasy Pros each week.

WEEK 16 RECAP
DL:
Start: Greg Rousseau (1 solo, TFL)
Start: Jaelan Phillips (5 solos, 1 assist. A decent enough performance to support a DL spot)

Sit: J.J. Watt (5 solos, 2 assist, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits. He looked like vintage JJ out there and played 95% of snaps!!!)


LB:

Start: Joe Thomas (6 solos, 1 assist. Not awful, but not good enough for a playoff LB spot)

Start: Deion Jones (2 solos, 1 assist, 39% of snaps. I am done with Cleveland and their LB room)

Sit: Jamin Davis (6 solos, 2 assist, TFL. He did his job for the week)

 

DB:
Start: Tariq Woolen (1 solo, 1 assist, 1 PD. Not enough in a big week)

Start: Jason Pinnock (2 solos, 1 assist, QB hit. 100% of the snaps, just limited production)

Sit: Donovan Wilson (6 solos, 1 assist, TFL. I don’t know that he was a top 10 this week, but he did enough to be a strong play)

 

START: Demarcus LawrenceDallas Cowboys, DL27

Demarcus Lawrence hasn’t posted a sack in the last 5 weeks. He has however, generated 20 pressures, for a respectable 13.9% pass-rush pressure rate. That recent success, coupled with a matchup against the Titans who have a league worst pressure rate allowed at 34% and are tied for 9th worst in sack conversion rate at 17% sets up for a strong matchup. Throw in the fact that Malik Willis is starting and has looked like a fish out of water trying to throw the ball, on 28 drop backs his time to throw was 3.56 seconds, which is a benefit for any pass rusher to have a QB who holds on to the ball longer. And no Derrick Henry (had an injury designation, short week, and this game has zero impact on their playoff status), the Titans will be in a rough spot this week and Lawrence is a high-end DL2 this week with big sack upside.

START: Preston SmithGreen Bay Packers, DL41

Preston Smith hasn’t produced a high-end amount of pressures with 11 pressures over his last 5 games. But he still produced a modest 9.7% pass-rush pressure rate on limited opportunities. But he has been effective with those opportunities converted it into 6 sacks. And with Minnesota the matchup this week, it is an ideal matchup to get pressures and convert them. The Vikings are tied for second worst in pressures allowed rate at 30% and tied for 6th for sack conversion rate at 18%. In a must-win game for the Packers, Smith is setup to be able to deliver a strong IDP championship performance. Preston Smith is a low-end DL2 this week.

SIT: Chandler JonesLas Vegas Raiders, DL18

Chandler Jones has had a bit of an up and down year with the bulk of his production coming in weeks 12 – 14. The recent production has been nice for IDP players who were able to make the play on him, however, his elbow injury will most likely sideline him or at the very least, limit his overall production. And San Francisco is a tough matchup regardless. I wouldn’t personally have the stones to roll Chandler out and I would try to pivot to another option entirely this week.

START: Quay WalkerGreen Bay Packers, LB33

Quay Walker had lofty expectations coming into this year with his draft capital and Green Bay kept good on their word of getting to a point of having 2 LBs on the field as much as possible (limiting substitutions and sub-packages). Since Campbell came back to the lineup full time in week 13, Quay has seen snap counts of 100%, 96%, and 96%. And on the season he has a delivered a good 13.2% tackle efficiency, which is a great first year. Now with the consistent top-end usage (nearly 100% as a 2nd LB), and consistent production, Quay should in consideration for a top 30 LB most weeks. This week against a strong offense in Minnesota in which there should be increased opportunities, he should be a low-end LB2.

START: Nicholas MorrowChicago Bears, LB37

Nicholas Morrow was the green dot wearer for the Bears all season and even with that consistent high-end snap count, he was not able to move past Roquan Smith and Jack Sanborn in terms of IDP relevance. With Smith gone via trade and Sanborn done due to injury, Morrow has seemingly stepped up and been delivering better IDP production over the last 2 weeks. In a must-win matchup for the Lions, I think we see plenty of opportunities for the Bears defense to make plays. Morrow is a low-end LB2 this week.

SIT: Bobby OkerekeIndianapolis Colts, LB29

The Colts LB room has some question marks moving forward beyond 2022, and as such, Okereke has seen at times his snap count drop a bit lower, into the 70% range at times. He has still found a way to be efficient with reduced snaps, but with a season that feels like they are giving up, it is a strong chance players who aren’t under contract for 2023, like Bobby O, might see some snaps taken away in favor for others. This is purely speculative as we have no coaching history to reference for Jeff Saturday, but the fact they are keeping Nick Foles in, tells me what I need to know. I would fade Bobby and treat him as a fringe LB3.

START: Ifeatu MelifonwuDetroit Lions, DB132

Ifeatu Melifonwu stepped in for the injured DeShon Elliott last week and contributed 8 combined tackles and a TFL. A very usable game for IDP. He spent the 66% of his time in the sweet spot and would assume he will again against another team willing to run the ball in the Chicago Bears. And with DeShon Elliott logging a DNP (did not participate) for the Wednesday practice, it is looking like Melifonwu should get the start again and be in the DB3 range.

START: Nasir AdderleyLos Angeles Chargers, DB65

Nasir Adderley has been the other starting safety alongside Derwin James most of this season. Derwin has been the one in more of that sweet spot role or even more of a play-making position closer to the line of scrimmage. With Derwin suffering a concussion on that brutal hit to Ashton Dulin in Monday night’s game, I would be looking for other options to start instead of James. In comes Adderley. He has played more of the box snaps as the other safety and would be the most likely candidate to try and step in for James, as much as possible. Adderley has had modest IDP numbers for most of the season, but can be a fringe DB3 in a pinch for those missing James or those just needing help at the DB spot.

SIT: Darrick ForrestWashington Commanders, DB28

Darrick Forrest has been a pleasant revelation for Washington with Kamren Curl’s injuries this off season and he has shown some great IDP value as well. However, his matchup this week against the Cleveland Browns is less than ideal as they have struggled to sustain drives since Deshaun Watson’s return as he tries to find his form and their willingness to attack downfield is not a major part of their gameplan to date. Forrest being a primarily deep safety as Jeremy Reaves stepped into the box role with Curl’s absence, leaves a bit to be desired for Forrest this week. I would lower expectations for Forrest for a fringe DB3 at best.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 15

Updated: December 15th 2022

Its playoff time!! I am hoping you are all checking out the article in hopes to get any possible edge for your fantasy playoffs matchup. If not, I hope you are just trying to stay plugged in, in an effort to keep perfecting your craft and plot for that FFIDP title next season!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show are the ECR from Fantasy Pros each week.

WEEK 14 RECAP
DL:
Start: Haason Reddick (Sack, solo, assist, TFL, QB hit. Not a ton, but delivered a sack for a solid week)
Start: Josh Allen (Sack, 3 solos, TFL, 2 QB hits, FR. A strong week for sure!)

Sit: Jerry Hughes (QB Hit. Old man strength may be running out?)


LB:

Start: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (3 solos, 3 assists. Got injured during the game, did not deliver enough of a floor here that we would have wanted)

Start: Jaylon Smith (7 solos, 2 assists. Great tackle floor performance)

Sit: David Long Jr. DNP (He ended up not playing)

 

DB:
Start: Rayshawn Jenkins (4 solos, 2 assists. This and Sauce are borderline good plays. I’ll take them as wins for this week)

Start: Sauce Gardner (4 solos, PD)

Sit: Talanoa Hufanga (3 solos, assist. Hufanga has been sliding in IDP production for the back half and is someone to keep a very keen eye on)

 

START: Azeez OjulariNew York Giants, DL37

Azeez has struggled with injuries all season. But he has two weeks in a row now with solid snap counts and he is showing some of that 2021 flash again! He has 10 pressures and 3 sacks over these last two weeks and 41+ snaps in both games. He has struggled a bit in run defense and has limited tackle floor, but his pass-rush upside is very real. He has a strong matchup against the Washington Commanders this week who have the 5th highest pressure rate allowed this year and 13th highest sack conversion rate. And we don’t need to look any further than week 13 when Azeez last played Washington (his first game back from injury) and he delivered 7 pressures (21.9% pass-rush pressure rate), a sack, and 2 QB hits! It is safe to expect more of the same. Azeez is a strong DL2 play this week.

START: Kwity PayeIndianapolis Colts, DL68

Kwity Paye is another top talent from 2021’s draft class that has struggled with injury this season. He is also someone who has shown reasons why we really like his upside. He has shown the ability to deliver a successful IDP week just in run defense with 3 of his 7 (full) games with 5+ tackles, while 2, 3, and 1 were his other tackle counts. A solid floor paired with an ideal matchup against the Minnesota Vikings this weekend make Paye worth way more than his DL68 ranking. The Vikings are allowing a league worst pressure rate and are tied for the 9th highest sack conversion rate this season. Paye is another strong DL2 play this week.

SIT: Jeffery SimmonsTennessee Titans, DL23

Jefferey Simmons is arguably one of the best DT’s in the league and for IDP, “so how can you sit him?”. This boils down to his ankle injury that held him out of week 10 and the injuries to other pass-rushers. These things have truly limited Simmons upside the last 4 weeks. We have seen his pass-rush grade drop, his 4 lowest pass-rush grades in a game have all come over the last 4 weeks and his 3 of his worst pressure performances as well. Now, they are supposed to get Denico Autry back this week which should help a bit, but the matchup against the LA Chargers is not ideal either. They are tied for 10th lowest pressure rate and tied for the 2nd best sack conversion rate allowed. I can see Simmons still being a needed play in DT-required leagues, but I would lower expectations and in straight DL terms, he would be a low-end DL3 for me this week.

START: Jack SanbornChicago Bears, LB35

Jack Sanborn is one of those darling waiver wire adds for IDP teams late in the season and as such, he feels like a high-end LB2 every week at this point. He has delivered a MINIMUM of 7 solo tackles every week, since week 9 when he stepped in for Roquan Smith. He has 3 of those 5 games with at least one play behind the line of scrimmage too. And the sprinkles on top of this Sanborn sundae? He is at a full 100% snaps the last two weeks as well. They are not taking him off the field and you should not be taking him out of your lineup. He is a high-end LB2.

START: Zaire Franklin, Indianapolis Colts, LB36

Zaire Franklin was a fun story to start the year with the injuries and uncertainties with the his LB running mates, Shaq Leonard and Bobbye Okereke. But he has played 100% of the snaps in all but 1 game (96% in week 10), had 8+ combined tackles in all but 2 games (weeks 7 and 9), and had a play behind the line of scrimmage in 8 of the 13 games this year. You may not be sold on Zaire for 2023 and the Colts (I personally am) but you cannot tell me you haven’t seen enough from Zaire this year to consider him in your top 24 LBs. He should be a strong LB2 this week.

SIT: Devin LloydJacksonville Jaguars, LB29

Devin Lloyd was the second LB drafted in the 2022 draft class and a first round pick and as such, came in with a lot of hype. He showed early flashes of production, for both NFL and IDP, and got everyone excited about what he could be. However, down the stretch he began to fade and Chad Muma took advantage of this opportunity and balled out. Muma was out last week and Lloyd was put back into the a 3-down role alongside Foyesade but Muma with a limited practice on Wednesday and an ankle injury like his tends to see 1-2 weeks and then return to play. I would be worried about Lloyd’s ability to pull a heavy snap count and would not have a high-level of confidence for him as an LB3. He would be a low-end LB4 at this point.

START: Andrew AdamsTennessee Titans, DB138

This is a REAL deep shot with Andrew Adams, but this is the time of the year you may need that type of hail mary for your matchup, so let’s dig in. Adams has been relatively average in his tackle efficiency for a safety at 9%, only 1 INT, no fumbles forced or recovered, and his snap count is a little below ideal at 81% on the season. So why Adams this week? He has been very efficient in gathering up all his tackles in coverage this year with 75% of his tackles coming not in run support and the second most pass-happy team in the league, LA Chargers, are set to provide him all those chances. He has shown us the ability to pile up tackles with 10 total tackle games this year with one last week against Jacksonville. Adams is a low-end DB3 this week.

START: Marcus JonesNew England Patriots, DB70

Marcus Jones may have snuck onto people’s radars in week 11 with his game-winning punt return for a TD against the New York Jets in their 10-3 win. If not then, then week 13 he got on the offensive side of the ball and took a a screen pass 40+ yards to the house for a receiving TD. And now this last week he stepped up with an injury to the current outside CB, Jack Jones, while playing the Cardinals and delivered with 7 solos, an assisted tackle, an INT, and two PDs. Assuming your league accounts for all of these types of scoring for all positions, Marcus is a beautiful amalgamation of fantasy football production. The real question is though, will he be the starting outside corner this week? With Jack Jones a DNP on Wednesday and how quickly he was ruled out of the game on Monday night and it being a shorter week then, I’d say Marcus is in line for another start and a chance to roll up a very full box score. Marcus is a strong DB3 and a high-end CB2 in cornerback required leagues.

SIT: Jalen ThompsonArizona Cardinals, DB21

Jalen Thompson burst onto the IDP scene last year with 120+ combined tackles. This year he is on pace to just hit 90 over a 17 game pace. Jalen went from 49.4% of his snaps in the sweet spot over all of 2021 to 43% of his time in the same spot. Not a major drop off, but enough to cause some inconsistencies in his tackle production and now this week he gets the Denver Broncos who will most likely have Brett Rypien and an offense that has spent most of the season struggling with Wilson will most likely have an even tougher time with Rypien under center. Fewer and shorter drives for the Broncos will cause an overall reduction for Thompson this week too. Thompson would be a low-end DB3 for me at this time.

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