IDP Start/Sit: Week 10
Week 10 is upon us and we are in need of nailing those IDP lineups so that we can make our playoff push. Or maybe we are just trying to find a stash in our dynasty leagues for next year or some trade bait. Regardless, let’s see who is looking good for us in week 10 and see if we can either get them into a starting lineup or on your roster!
WEEK 9 RECAP
DL:
Start: Travon Walker (2 solos)
Start: Gregory Rousseau (1 solo, 1 TFL, injured and considered week-to-week)
Sit: Rasheem Green (1 PD)
LB:
Start: Nicholas Morrow (2 solos, 2 assists, 1 PD)
Start: David Long Jr. (6 solos, 4 assists, QB Hit)
Sit: Isaiah Simmons (6 solos, 2 assists, TFL, QB hit)
DB:
Start: Andre Cisco (2 solos, 3 assists, PD)
Start: Xavier Woods (4 solos, 3 assists)
Sit: Jessie Bates III (1 solo, 3 assists, 1 INT, PD)
START: Jeffery Simmons, Tennessee Titans, DL24
Simmons has been talked about as an elite defensive linemen by plenty of analysts, but tends to lose some face value due the fact he plays as a interior defender primarily. Beyond the position, Simmons delivers all the baseline needs we want from a top DL option. 81% of the snaps for the season on an average of 55 snaps/game. He has turned that into stellar IDP production, his per game averages are: nearly 4 tackles, 0.7 sacks, 0.5 PD, 1.1 QB hits. Along with stellar year-to-date production, he has a positive matchup this week against Denver who has allowed a pressure rate 28% on the season and an 18% sack conversion rate too. Simmons has been on a tear the last 4 weeks with 19 pressures and 2 sacks. Additionally, if anyone in your league is valuing Simmons as low-end DL2, I would recommend trying to buy at that evaluation!
START: Josh Pascal, Detroit Lions, DL79
Josh Paschal has not had much of a chance to shine this season since he didn’t play his first game until 3 weeks ago. In those three games he has managed 8 pressures and 5 in his last game! In those games he has been a strong volume play getting nearly 85% of the snaps for the defense. These strong baseline give him a great chance to produce, now with a positive matchup against Chicago, he is high-end DL3 play. The Bears are allowing 30% pressure rate at a 14% sack conversion rate. Josh is a good play this week and as a rookie with limited overall production, he is someone you could look into buying low on him for your roster.
SIT: Uchenna Nwosu, Seattle Seahawks, DL12
Uchenna Nwosu has been delivering above off season expectations this year and normally has been a strong play. He has has a great baseline of 80% snaps and has had back-to-back weeks of 2-sack games. Normally I would advocate playing through poor matchups, however, Tampa Bay is less than ideal with the low pressure rate of 19% allowed by the offensive line, as well a 12% sack conversion rate. Nwosu still has a strong capability to produce with limited production, but Tom Brady has the fastest time to throw out of any QB this year of any QB with at least 100 attempts. This is not a hard “sit”, but definitely consider all options on your roster before just putting Nwosu in right away.
START: Blake Martinez, Las Vegas Raiders, LB42
Blake Martinez was a name that everyone knew and loved for IDP production, however, after suffering his ACL injury. He went from top IDP performer, to major injury, no team, another chance with his former defensive coordinator with the Raiders and now, ironically enough, an injury to Divine Deablo is giving him another chance for IDP (and NFL) relevance. Last week he saw 91% of the snaps and he saw the same amount of 3rd down snaps and was the leader on 1st and 2nd down snaps too. This is even though he is not the defensive play caller on the defense (that guy is coming up later!), and showed above average tackle efficiency at 17.7% this last week. Deablo expects to be out a minimum of 4 weeks with being placed on injured reserve so let’s keep firing up Martinez as he will continue his old habits working with Patrick Graham (former defensive coordinator).
UPDATE: 11/10/2022, 2:19 PM
Blake Martinez has retired from the NFL! Obviously, not a great addition to your starting lineup. Luke Masterson would be the 2nd LB to consider as a stash at this time or if you truly have a need to get a body into your lineup. Sorry to those who have made moves or efforts around this!
START: Willie Gay Jr., Kansas City Chiefs, LB34
Willie Gay Jr. a strong start to the season and really showed out in week 2. However, he was suspended for PEDs and missed 4 games and is working to find his full-time spot back on the field. He has seen his snap percentage slowly creep back up to regular numbers over the last two weeks and I believe this is going to continue as we move forward. With a week 10 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, they are running the 11th most plays per this year with slight uptick of that over the previous 3. During the time he has been back on the field his tackle efficiency has been quite strong at 14.7% this last week he is trending towards a strong play as a high-end LB3.
SIT: Bobby Okereke, Indianapolis Colts, LB41
At the start of this season, many viewed Bobby O as an LB2/3 for sure. However, this season has brought forward a new LB in this group, Zaire Franklin. Zaire has taken the opportunity and ran with it. Earning the captain patch from his teammates and eventually given the green dot eventually by the coaching staff as the defensive play-caller. This along with the other big name, Shaquille (Darius) Leonard, is making it difficult for all of them to find time on the field. Bobby Okereke has seen his snaps dip the last two weeks as Leonard has made his way back onto the field (61% to 46%). This is not stable and should leave us from want to start him our lineups unless it is LB4 or deeper.
START: Duron Harmon, Las Vegas Raiders, DB46
Earlier we talked about Martinez and his return to the field for the Raiders. He is not wearing the green dot because Duron Harmon is the defensive play-caller and this is the strongest indicator of playing time. Harmon saw 100% of the snaps last week as the play-caller and that will hold true for this week. He has taken the opportunity and turned it into solid production this last week with 5 solos and 3 assists. This week against Indianapolis will see a new coach in place for them but still an ideal matchup for a defense. And with 42% of his snaps in the “sweet spot”, against a struggling Colts roster, there should be plenty of opportunity to succeed. This is a strong role moving forward for Harmon now that Abram has been cut (and claimed off waivers by the Packers) and you should consider Harmon a capable starter as a high-end DB3 rest of season.
START: Jalen Ramsey, Los Angeles Rams, DB29
Jalen Ramsey is known for his shut down play as an outside corner by a lot of people around the NFL landscape. He should also be known as a cornerback who provides a solid IDP production from the CB position, even to the point of being a viable DB option in combined position leagues. He has delivered a per game stat line: 4.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1.1 PD. A viable stat line for most weeks, but this is because as an “outside” corner, he still finds 33% of his snaps between the slot and the box alignment. Partnered with his overall snaps he has seen, 98% on the season, he should be considered a low-end DB2 for the rest of the season.
SIT: Justin Simmons, Denver Broncos, DB26
Justin Simmons has been back playing the last 3 weeks, but has been spending a good amount of time on the injury report the last few weeks and as such he has some concern about playing time and performance baked in. Along with that, Justin Simmons is a safety that plays most of his snaps (55%) in the deep safety role. Now this week, the Broncos are playing the Titans who run the 2nd fewest plays per game, and the of those plays, the 3rd most of them are run plays. Which combined with where he plays on the field, this is a negative matchup for Simmons IDP production. Simmons is big name for NFL reasons and has contributed IDP relevance in the past, but this is a matchup to pivot away from.
