IDP Start/Sit: Week 13

Updated: November 29th 2023

 

Welcome to week 13, our penultimate matchup before the playoffs! Let’s get those lineups ready again as we secure our first-round byes, or our spots in the playoff, or at the very least, play spoiler to those still in it!

Week 12 Recap

DL:

Start: Will Anderson Jr. (2 solos, 2 assists, TFL) 👎

Sit: Shaquil Barrett (3 solos, assist) 👍

LB:

Start: Ivan Pace Jr. (7 solos, 2 assists, sack, TFL, QB hit) 👍

Sit: Frankie Luvu (Solo, assist) 👎

DB:

Start: Jonathan Owens (8 solos, 4 assists, TFL, FR, Def TD) 👍

Sit: Jevon Holland (5 solos, INT, PD, Def TD) 👎

Week 13 Starts & Sits

START: Osa Odighizuwa, Dallas Cowboys, DL60 (DT18)

Osa Odighizuwa, he not only has a fun name to say, but he also has the production to get into our IDP lineups. This is especially true in week 13. Osa has had a great year in terms of his pass rush success. He has a pass-rush pressure rate of 13.65% and he has a pass-rush win rate of 24.25% on the season. These are outstanding numbers, however, they have not resulted fully in the sack numbers you’d expect. I’d expect to see him with close to 5 sacks versus the 3 he has produced year-to-date. Getting a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks should help with that this week. They are allowing pressures on 32% of all dropbacks while 15% of those are being converted into sacks. This is a strong matchup for Odighizuwa to add to his sack total this season.

SIT: Denico Autry, Tennessee Titans, DL40 (ED27)

Denico Autry has had a wonderful season. 8 sacks is a great season for most pass-rushers, but Autry is at that number through 11 games and obviously pushing for more. Autry has been an bit of an over-producer this season though, with those 8 sacks coming on 32 pressures. And as we looked at with Osa, we would expect his sack total to be closer to 5 sacks at this point. His pass-rush production numbers are solid, but not elite either that it would lead me to believe that he is a true outlier with 10.22% pass rush rate and a 15.0% pass rush win rate. This week, Autry gets a less than ideal matchup in the Indianapolis Colts who are allowing only a 23% pressure rate per dropback this season and only 7% of those pressures are converted into sacks. This is a week where Autry likely regresses back to the mean.

START: Jack Campbell, Detroit Lions, LB41

Jack Campbell has been an IDP rookie darling of mine since the draft cycles this off-season. Now, due to an unfortunate injury, he might get the full-time role I was hoping he’d have secured by this point. Either way, Campbell has been quietly delivering a respectable baseline for IDP production. He has 49 tackles at a 12.82% efficiency. This is very average, but for a first year player, that is a good baseline to be achieving already. He has added a handful of splash plays, too. Week 13 is a good matchup as well, heading to New Orleans Jack Campbell is facing a Saints offense that is providing an average of 19.2 tackles per game to the linebacker position. Even at an even split with Derrick Barnes, that is still likely to yield an 8 – 10 tackle floor for them and Campbell is should easily take advantage this week.

SIT: Markquese Bell, Dallas Cowboys, LB36

Markquese Bell has stepped up in his role with the injuries and uncertainty at linebacker this year for the Cowboys. Starting in week 6 we have seen snap percentages of 53%, 73%, 94%, 39%, 85%, and 77%. The numbers have been relatively consistent, but Rashaan Evans has slowly been seeing his integration and snaps increasing as well, even if smaller. But that reduction is coming at the extent of someone else at times, and it seems to be Bell. It also doesn’t help that they already have an established safety group of three as well in Kearse, Wilson, and Malik Hooker that limits Bell’s ability to stay on the field. Pair the snap count concerns with the Seattle Seahawks matchup this weekend in a team that is only yielding 14.7 tackles per game to the linebabcker position, I do not like Bell’s range of outcomes this week.

START: Jordan Battle, Cincinnati Bengals, DB32 (S28)

Rookie Jordan Battle is getting his opportunity this season due to injuries, but he has gone ahead and made the most of that. Filling in early two weeks ago and getting his frist fultime starting game, Battle quickly made the most of it with 19 total tackles. He projected as a strong tackling safety during the NFL draft process but has shown he can deliver that on the NFL field. While this is a small sample size, we love the production, but we also love the utilization. 58.26% of his snaps these last two weeks have come from the sweet spot alignments but his box utilization saw a jump from 18 snaps to 31 once after a week of preparing the defense with Battle known as the starter. Again, small sample sizes, but we are at the end of the season and we cannot wait several weeks to figure out some of these new roles and opportunities. But we can react to the information we have seen the teams already do. Battle should be a strong start while he maintains this role.

SIT: Richie Grant, Atlanta Falcons, DB25 (S23)

Richie Grants was a defensive back I had a lot of belief in coming into this season. Unfortunately, that has not been the case for his third season in the NFL. It has shown not only in his reduction in IDP production, but some of his worst PFF grades, especially is his overall defense and coverage grades. Most concerning though, is the last two weeks he has dipped below 100% snap percentage and this last week it was down to 75%! Up to this point, he has delivered slightly above average tackle efficiency, but if he isn’t producing outlier numbers and his utilization is going to drop, his IDP production becomes concerning on a week-to-week basis. Enter the New York Jets for this week, they are allowing the lowest numbers of tackles to opposing safeties at 9.9 per game.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 12

Updated: November 23rd 2023

 

The goods were good… the bads were misses. With Thanksgiving upon us this week, let’s be thankful for our family, friends, and hopefully some great lineups this weekend!

Week 11 Recap

DL:

Start: Kyle Van Noy (2 solos, 1 TFLs, 1 QB hit. 1 sack) 👍

Sit: Montez Sweat (1 solo, 1 assist, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit, 1 sack) 👎

LB:

Start: Elandon Roberts (11 solos, 4 assists, 2 TFLs) 👍 – Great week AND 100% snap count!

Sit: De’Vondre Campbell (6 solos, 1 assists, 1 TFL) 👎 

DB:

Start: Kevin Byard (4 solos, 1 assist, TFL, 2 PDs) 👍

Sit: Jalen Pitre (4 solos, 2 assists, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit) 👎

Week 12 Starts & Sits

START: Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans, DL35 (ED28)

Will Anderson may not have the gaudy sack numbers so far this rookie campaign. He has three sacks through his first 10 games 32 tackles. But he has made his impact felt in games, look further than week 11 where he recorded a sack but also caused the pressure/hurry on the final play of the game that led to the incompletion on 4th down and sealed the Texans’ victory. He has been winning in his pass rush sets 22.0% of the time (27th among edge rushers) and has a 13.1% pass pressure rate. While this hasn’t create gaudy stats, this week’s matchup against the Jaguars is a plus matchup. Their pressure rate allowed is slightly above average at 25%, but the pressures they do allow are converted into sacks at the third highest rate at 19%. For a player who is winning his matchups consistently, this should be an ideal week for him to capitalize.

SIT: Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DL38 (ED30)

Shaquil Barrett has had a very nice season bouncing back from his Achilles injury. Through his 10 games this year he has delivered 4 sacks and 34 total tackles this season. His overall success in his pass rush sets though has not been as strong at a 14.9% rate. It is above average but not great, but he has delivered a strong 13.1% pass rush pressure rate. This split has given us some solid production, but the matchup this week against the Indianapolis Colts is not the best one if Barrett can’t win his matchups consistently. The Colts have the 5th lowest pressure rate allowed at 23% and the 3rd lowest conversion rate of those pressures into sacks at 8%. Barrett just hasn’t won enough and consistently in his sets to feel good about this week.

START: Ivan Pace, Minnesota Vikings, LB31

Ivan Pace was a draft darling for me, but going undrafted put a damper on that for sure. However, landing in Minnesota gave me hope and he showed up early in the season but saw those quickly fade as well. However, the injury to Jordan Hicks has reignited his opportunity and this week should be a week that continues to showcase Pace. In his last two games as a starter and seeing 50+ snaps he has compiled 15 total tackles (13.5% tackle efficiency) and a forced fumble. This week he gets the Chicago Bears whose tackles allowed to LBs this season have not been ideal, but with the return of Justin Fields, it has seen a nice jump up. And what better way to try and highlight Pace’s ability in a plus matchup against the Bears?

SIT: Frankie Luvu, Carolina Panthers, LB29

Frankie Luvu was an amazing revelation last season for IDP. He did it with a great floor in terms of tackle production (103 combined) but had the boosted upside of his pass rush (7 sacks). This year started off down that same exact path with 12 tackles and 4 sacks over just the first two weeks. Since then? 1 sack and 67 tackles. He has done a wonderful maintaining that tackle production and efficiency this year, however, outside of those first two weeks he has only produced 1 sack and this lack of pass-rush production aligns pretty closely with his switch to the Mike LB after seeing Shaq Thompson get injured. But isn’t his strong tackle floor enough to keep him in the top 30 LBs this week? In most cases, yes, but facing the Titans this week, they have one of the lower tackle productions allowed to the LB position which lowers Luvu’s floor overall. And if his pass rush upside is limited to none, and his tackle floor reduced, he is a fade for me this week.

START: Jonathan Owens, Green Bay Packers, DB31 (S25)

Jonathan Owens got a chance to be a starter in week 8 of this season, but it is how he has been utilized over these last three weeks and the results that have me excited for this week 12 matchup. Over the last three weeks, Owens has seen his sweet spot alignment jump to 53.47%! He has also piled up 20 combined tackles for 6.3 tackles per game. There is no reason for this usage and alignment to change this week which gives us great confidence in his utilization. Also, enter the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving which is a favorable matchup for their opponents’ safeties, like a top 10 favorable matchup! Owens is a very comfortable play this week who can deliver a great tackle floor.

SIT: Jevon Holland, Miami Dolphins, DB29 (S23)

Jevon Holland has had a very consistent year so for for IDP. Delivering almost 7 total tackles a game with 62 tackles over his 9 games this season. His utilization is a respectable 46.6% from the sweet spot as well, which is good, but not great. Holland has been able to be IDP relevant with average utilization though. However, one thing that can be killer to a player’s IDP production, is an opponent that cannot sustain drives or push the ball down field where safeties have an opportunity to make more plays. This week, Holland gets the Jets and newly minted starting QB, Tim Boyle. Holland is still likely to deliver some base value due to his ability, but his overall ceiling is drastically lowered and becomes an unfavorable play for me this Friday.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 11

Updated: November 16th 2023

IDP Start/Sit: Week 11

 

Week 10 was not our best outcome of the season with only 2 good picks, but the process looked good for most of them. Variance can be our friend, but this week, it was not. But let’s move forward to week 11 and talk through our lineups as we near playoff time.

Week 10 Recap

DL:

Start: Calijah Kancey (3 solos, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits) 👍 – 2 big plays in the backfield, I like this as a good week.

Sit: Khalil Mack (4 solos, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit) 👎 – A borderline game, I took the W on Kancey, I’ll take the L on Mack

LB:

Start: Patrick Queen (6 solos, 3 assists) 👎 – I thought we would see more beyond on just standard tackles this week. I’ll take the L on that.

Sit: Alex Anzalone (4 solos, 5 assists, PD, QB hit) 👎 

DB:

Start: Alontae Taylor (4 solos, 1 assist, TFL, 2 PDs) 👍

Sit: Keisean Nixon (2 solos, 2 assists, PD, 151 return yards) 👎

Week 11 Starts & Sits

START: Kyle Van Noy, Baltimore Ravens, DL42 (ED33)

Kyle Van Noy has done it again, he has found a team, he has found a role, and he is finding a way to deliver IDP value. The Ravens’ defense as a whole has been excellent this year and many are finding success but it is fun to see a veteran role player making such an impact. He has had a nice run over his last three games as well. 12 pressures, 2 sacks, but he has been so close on quite a few, too. Add an additional QB hit and 9 hurries to go along and you can see how he has been not only delivering, but the potential to have more on top of that. He was dealing with a groin injury this week but was a full participant on practice on Wednesday so you can feel confident about his usage this week which over the last 3 weeks has been good as a more of the pass rush specialist, at 36 snaps per game. This does limit his tackle floor and explain his lowered ranking, but when you need to stream that DL spot or are chasing sack upside, Van Noy is our guy this week. His matchup against the Bengals should be a plus matchup overall as well with the Bengals allowing just over 17 pressures per game over their last 3 as well. The Ravens offense has played very well this season and his likely to keep this in a negative game script or at least neutral for the Bengals, meaning more pass rushing opportunities overall. The intersection of Van Noy’s performance and the Bengals looking like a plus matchup make Van Noy a great streaming candidate.

SIT: Montez Sweat, Chicago Bears, DL15 (ED14)

Montez Sweat has had a very good IDP season so far and has done so in a consistent fashion that really shouldn’t warrant a sitting or fading of him in our lineups. 27 pressures on 239 pass rush snaps for a very respectable 12.29% pass rush pressure rate. He has done well to convert those pressures into sacks with 8 on the season already. Additionally, he has delivered an average of 3 tackles a game too as a nice little baseline. So why are we considering fading Sweat? It is a little bit his change of scenery and a lot more his unfavorable matchup against the Detroit Lions. In his 2 games, he has shown a lot less activity in the run defense of the game and has only compiled 2 total tackles. Small sample, I know, but it is still a bit concerning at this point and takes away from the floor he had in Washington. Then, enter the Detroit Lions and their 3rd best pressure rate allowed 2nd best sack conversion percentage. Sweat has shown an ability to deliver and if you don’t have many other options, he is still capable from talent alone to make his week on one big play, but for me, I am lowering my expectations on Montez Sweat this week.

START: Elandon Roberts, Pittsburgh Steelers, LB26

Elandon Roberts seems to be the last man standing in Pittsburgh with Kwon Alexander suffering a significant injury last week, and Holcomb is already on IR, it is Robert’s show to run at this point for the Steelers’ LB room. Roberts is well known as a solid run defender but not so much for his coverage skills, well enter a Cleveland Browns team that already surrenders some of the most tackles per game to their opponents’ linebackers and now has lost their starting QB in Deshaun Watson for the season. And a team without its starting QB is likely to lean into its run game to help “cover up” its lesser QB. To say this is an ideal matchup for Roberts, might be one of the biggest understatements. Roberts should be in all of our lineups this week.

SIT: De’Vondre Campbell, Green Bay Packers, LB27

De’Vondre Campbell, after missing some time earlier this season, has ended up back in the lead role with Quay Walker experiencing his own injury issues. His production was strong in his first week back against Minnesota with 14 tackles and a handful of other plays. However, the last two weeks he has averaged 5.5 tackles, with only 4 of them as the solo variety. And early in this week, he might be moving back into a smaller role with Quary Walker logging a limited practice on Wednesday already and McDuffie showing his viability during the injuries of Campbell and Walker, too. Reduced opportunities aren’t always the end of an LB’s IDP viability, however, the lowered opportunities paired with a matchup against the team allowing the lowest tackles and IDP scoring to their opposing linebackers is not a good thing. And that is what Campbell has in facing off against the Los Angeles Chargers.

START: Kevin Byard, Philadelphia Eagles, DB35 (S27)

Kevin Byard had his chance of scenery this year, just like Montez Sweat, and Byard has done a nice job maintaining his IDP production with the Eagles. His tackle floor has dipped just shy of 1 tackle per game, but he has maintained a great “sweet spot” utilization at 51.7% the last two games. In week 11, Byard gets the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has normally been a QB who doesn’t make many mistakes, however, this year has been a bit different, he already has 13 turnover-worthy plays this season through 9 games, whereas last 3 years he has averaged closer to 20 a season. Byard, who is normally a consistent play-maker, has yet to make that mark this season. And in a matchup with a team that has the 6th highest pass rate, a QB who is making more mistakes than usual, and a defender in Byard who likely has positive regression towards making a splash play to go along with a solid tackle floor, gives me a lot of confidence in firing up Kevin Byard in all my lineups.

SIT: Jalen Pitre, Houston Texans, DB23 (S18)

Jalen Pitre was the IDP darling last season with his other-worldly tackle production. His 2023 production has not matched this at all, but has been viable for our IDP lineups this year. However, last week we saw a shift away from Pitre as a box safety and get his lowest “sweet spot” utilization at 25% and it resulted in his worst tackle performance of the season with 1 solo tackle. Week 11 opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, don’t help Pitre’s overall opportunities with their bottom-third plays run per game at 61 plays. Even with Murray back last week, they still only ran 60 plays. They are not the higher-tempo offense we saw under Kliff Kingsbury. With the potential shift in his alignment and usage and the lowered ceiling of opportunities in fewer plays to defend, I am lower on Pitre’s potential outcomes.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 9

Updated: November 2nd 2023

 

Week 8 we had every team playing again and lots of options. We looked good and the efficiencies checked out for our starts. For our sits, the process didn’t check out for on Holcomb and Grant. But holy cow, Bryce Huff needs to get a bit more run (or a competing team should have tried to nab him at the deadline) because this man is on fire this year. Might be worth a stash on your dynasty roster if he is available and you have the spot.

Week 8 Recap

DL:

Start: Bryce Huff (2 solos, 3 assists, 1 sack, TFL, QB hit) 👍 – Only on 37% snaps!?!

Sit: Jonathan Allen (1 assist, 2 QB hits) 👍

LB:

Start: Denzel Perryman (6 solos, 3 assists, TFL, QB hit, 0.5 sacks) 👍 – Only on 48% snaps!?!

Sit: Cole Holcomb (7 solos, 4 assists, FR) 👎 

DB:

Start: Jamal Adams (5 solos, 3 assists, TFL, PD) 👍

Sit: Richie Grant (6 solos, 3 assists, PD) 👎

Week 9 Starts & Sits

START: JeDeveon Clowney, Baltimore Ravens, DL46 (ED35)

Clowney has had a bit of a career flip here in his season with the Ravens. A defender once known for his strength in run defense and ability to make tackle plays in the backfield is now really showing some chops as a pass rusher. He is pacing out for 72+ pressures this season, his best since 64 in 2017. But he is going to do this on 200 fewer snaps. His efficiency is up and he is delivering strong pass-rush metrics in other spots, too. He is top 25 in the NFL in terms of his win rate at 22.8% this season. The one downside to Clowney’s season is his tackle floor has dropped to its lowest of his career as he is pacing out to have 29 total tackles this season. This week, Clowney gets the Seahawks whose offensive line has been a line that has allowed a 30% pressure rate on the season. This is one of the bottoms in terms of pressures allowed but only 11% sack conversion, one of the better marks this season. So for Clowney, he has been successful in creating pressures and should realize that this week, but his ability to convert a sack is good enough that he will have success this week, too, making him a viable starting option this week.

SIT: Jonathan Greenard, Houston Texans, DL27 (ED21)

Jonathan Greenard had an amazing week last week with 7 pressures and 3 sacks against the Panthers! He has delivered some solid metrics to go along with these recent eye-popping stats. He has a 19.1% win rate in pass rush sets and an 11% pash rush pressure rate. However, he has overproduced a bit on his sack production, where I would expect to see him closer to 3.5 sacks vs. the 7 he has. The potential negative regression in his sack production while coming into a matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week, has me a little concerned about Greenard being a strong play this week. Tampa has the third-lowest pressure rate allowed and the third-lowest sack conversion rate, too.

START: Blake Cashman, Houston Texans, LB26

Blake Cashman has been absolute money once stepping into the full-time role in this Demeco Ryans’ Houston Texans defense. Since getting the full-time role he has delivered a solid 13.42% tackle efficiency. The real kicker on top of that is the splash play he has added to that strong tackle floor. 6 TFL’s, 3 QB hits, 1 sack, and 2 PDs. With the strong tackle production and the addition of the big play upside, Bashman is firmly cemented as an LB2. This week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it is a bottom-half matchup scoring-wise, but Cashman is the primary LB in this offense has the best likelihood of absorbing the bulk of the LB scoring this week.

SIT: Kaden Elliss, Atlanta Falcons, LB29

It pains me to say to sit Kaden Elliss, he was a flag plant of mine and someone I was very excited about this season. Now, he hasn’t been a complete busy by any stretch of the imagination either. He is wearing the green dot for the Falcons and he is seeing nearly 100% of all snaps this season. However, is tackle efficiency is below average at 10.9%. While this is not ideal, we can normally work with this when there is upside in other aspects of their game. And with Kaden Elliss with thought we might have that with his pass-rush upside from his time with Saints and his DC Ryan Nielsen. Elliss is actually on pace to surpass his pass rush opportunities from last year by 21 chances while playing well over 400 snaps more than last year. This lower ceiling, plus a matchup against rookie QB Jaren Hall and the Vikings, with an offense that is not likely to be very efficient week 1 with this big change, I am expecting a lower set of opportunities for Elliss this week.

START: Keanu Neal, Pittsburgh Steelers, DB74 (S52)

Minkah Fitzpatrick is out and Keanu Neal was one of the biggest benefactors last week when Fitzpatrick was out due to injury. This gave him the opportunity to see his best utilization in the box and the slot alignments. What did that do for him in terms of his production? His best tackle production of the season with 7 solo tackles. And Minkah is officially out for the Thursday night matchup against the Titans and we should be ready to expect another solid night from Keanu Neal against an offense that maybe has some renewed juice with Will Levis behind center.

SIT: Trevon Moehrig, Las Vegas Raiders, DB39 (S30)

Trevon Moehrig had a wonderful week 8 with 10 total tackles for our IDP lineups. It did not hurt that he also had played all 86 snaps in that game! But that is still a very good 11.1% tackle efficiency, which we would be more than happy to have from a DB. He has also back-to-back weeks of 30 box snaps as well. These are both positive things for IDP production, however, prior to this week, his tackle efficiency sat at 7.5%, a good step below average tackle efficiency for DBs. In a matchup against a struggling New York Giants offense (especially if Daniel Jones sits), I would expect limited upside from most Raiders IDPs, but especially those that play further off the line, like Moehrig.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 7

Updated: October 18th 2023

IDP Start/Sit: Week 7

 

It was not a great week 5, but just like teams dealing with all kinds of injuries, we need to press on and find the right guy this week and make our teams better for it! And we might want to even consider where we are going to be next week when we get hit with a ton of teams on their bye week as well.

Week 6 Recap

DL:

Start: Grady Jarrett (1 sack, 1 solo, 1 assist, 1 TFL, 2 QB hits) 👍

Sit: Jonathon Cooper (1 sack, 3 solos, 1 TFL, 2 QB hits, 1 PD) 👎

LB:

Start: Tyrel Dodson (2 solos, 5% of snaps) 👎- This is clearly Dorian Williams’ job

Sit: Frankie Luvu (5 solos, 4 assists, TFL) 👎 

DB:

Start: Devon Witherspoon (4 solos, 3 PD) 👍

Sit: Marcus Maye (2 solos, 2 assists) 👍

Week 7 Starts & Sits

START: Dexter Lawrence, New York Giants, DL45 (DT09)

Dexter Lawrence has an amazing 2022 campaign, for the NFL and IDP. Career highs in snaps, pressures, sacks, hits, tackles, you name it. His start to 2023 has not been nearly as productive with 0 sacks so far through 6 games. The nice thing is, his underlying metrics are in line or better than his 2022 season. His pass-rush pressure rate is up about 1.5% to 13.7% and his tackle efficiency is up 0.5% to 7.7%. And his win rate is up 2% to 27% as well. However, this just hasn’t delivered results for IDP quite well yet.

Now enter the Washington Commanders. In their last game against one of the leagues worst pass rushes (over the last several years), they still managed to allow 11 pressures and 5 sacks on Howell’s 29 drop backs. I can’t imagine a better way for someone to deliver a sack than to get the Commanders. Lawrence will continue his dominance, but I think he also maximizes that with at least a sack this week.

SIT: Leonard Floyd, Buffalo Bills, DL25 (ED19)

Leonard Floyd has been a great addition to the Buffalo Bills defensive front with the absence of Von Miller. Floyd has delivered some great weeks already for IDP with 7 total sacks through 6 games. The floor is a bit limited for Buffalo Bills pass rushers as they rotate pretty consistently and his shows with his 7 total tackles as well. Their matchup against the Patriots is a fairly average one for pass rushers. But the thing we are looking at here is a pass rusher who has an average win rate at 12.3%, and a solid 11.8% pass rush pressure rate. But he has also greatly over-produced with his 7 sacks on 16 pressures. On average, we would expect to see 2.5 sacks from that level of pressure created. So with a lower floor for his play, some likely negative regression in terms of his sack production, and an average matchup, Floyd is a fade for me this week.

START: Dorian Williams, New England Patriots, LB34

Dorian Williams looked like he might be on a short leash or even on his way to the dog house in week 5 after stepping in for the injured Matt Milano. Williams played first but was pulled in favor of Tyrel Dodson who finished up the game. However, it seems a week of practice and planning have gone a long week to help Dorian. His PFF grades looked better this week and he delivered a much better IDP performance, too.

His 9 tackles on 65 snaps was a great start to his first game with as a starter. This week he gets the New England Patriots which seems to have made a greater focus on utilizing their running backs in Elliott and Stevenson last week and their increased utilization means increased opportunities for the Bills’ LBs. Dorian is looking like a strong start weekly for us moving forward with this role in his hands.

SIT: Eric Kendricks, Los Angeles Chargers, LB35

Eric Kendricks may have lost his 3-down role with his most recent absence due to his injuries. In his return, with seemingly no limitations, Eric Kendricks was at 68% snaps in week 4 and saw that increase in week 5, but it was still limited to 83% while Kenneth Murray was at 100% of snaps. His tackle efficiency is at 11.2%, which is slightly below league-average, but not terrible. However, when you compare below-average production (even if slightly) with reduced utilization, it is a recipe to under-deliver for IDP value.

Kansas City does present more opportunities for opposing defenses with its total plays ran, however, the Chargers are an above-average offense as well, which means fewer overall opportunities for the Chiefs’ offense, too. I don’t believe this to be as much of a plus matchup for Chargers’ linebackers and all that wrapped up together, I am not in on Kendricks as top 36 LB this week.

START: Grant Delpit, Cleveland Browns, DB30 (S27)

Grant Delpit has had a strong year for IDP so far. He has averaged 5.5 tackles, has 2 PDs, FR, and in INT. He has done a little of everything and has a strong tackle floor as well. 4 out of his 5 games he has hit at least 5 tackles, the one game he didn’t and only recorded 2 tackles? He played his season low snaps in the box. So why do we like Delpit this week? Besides his normal usage in the box alignment, the Jaguars have shown us in two matchups this season that to slow down the Colts offense, you use a base alignment with a box heavy front. With Delpit’s experience and capability and how Jim Schwartz has historically ran his defenses, I think it is safe to believe we will some of Delpit’s best usage there. Pair that with his proven success already, I believe this will be a great week for Delpit’s production, especially his tackle production.

SIT: Rudy Ford, Green Bay Packers, DB21 (S21)

Ford has been a regular contributor for IDP relevance this year for the Green Bay Packers. 37 tackles on his 351 snaps, for a strong 10.54% tackle efficiency. He also has a pair of passes defensed and an interception. So why would we want to take someone with this level of production out of our lineup? Well, the Denver Broncos on the otherside of the ball are averaging the lowest plays ran over the last three games of 51.3 plays per game. Taking his tackle efficiency, that gives him about 5.4 tackles this game, which isn’t terrible. Their last game, Ford didn’t have a full game of Quay Walker to limit the opportunity that Ford would have to make his own plays. With Quay expected to be back this week and the lowered opportunities due to facing a struggling Broncos’ offense, I am looking at Ford more as a back-end DB3.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 10

Updated: November 10th 2022

Week 10 is upon us and we are in need of nailing those IDP lineups so that we can make our playoff push. Or maybe we are just trying to find a stash in our dynasty leagues for next year or some trade bait. Regardless, let’s see who is looking good for us in week 10 and see if we can either get them into a starting lineup or on your roster!

WEEK 9 RECAP
DL:
Start: Travon Walker (2 solos)
Start: Gregory Rousseau (1 solo, 1 TFL, injured and considered week-to-week)

Sit: Rasheem Green (1 PD)


LB:

Start: Nicholas Morrow (2 solos, 2 assists, 1 PD)

Start: David Long Jr. (6 solos, 4 assists, QB Hit)

Sit: Isaiah Simmons (6 solos, 2 assists, TFL, QB hit)

 

DB:
Start: Andre Cisco (2 solos, 3 assists, PD)

Start: Xavier Woods (4 solos, 3 assists)

Sit: Jessie Bates III (1 solo, 3 assists, 1 INT, PD)

 

START: Jeffery SimmonsTennessee Titans, DL24

Simmons has been talked about as an elite defensive linemen by plenty of analysts, but tends to lose some face value due the fact he plays as a interior defender primarily. Beyond the position, Simmons delivers all the baseline needs we want from a top DL option. 81% of the snaps for the season on an average of 55 snaps/game. He has turned that into stellar IDP production, his per game averages are: nearly 4 tackles, 0.7 sacks, 0.5 PD, 1.1 QB hits. Along with stellar year-to-date production, he has a positive matchup this week against Denver who has allowed a pressure rate 28% on the season and an 18% sack conversion rate too. Simmons has been on a tear the last 4 weeks with 19 pressures and 2 sacks. Additionally, if anyone in your league is valuing Simmons as low-end DL2, I would recommend trying to buy at that evaluation!

START: Josh Pascal, Detroit Lions, DL79

Josh Paschal has not had much of a chance to shine this season since he didn’t play his first game until 3 weeks ago. In those three games he has managed 8 pressures and 5 in his last game! In those games he has been a strong volume play getting nearly 85% of the snaps for the defense. These strong baseline give him a great chance to produce, now with a positive matchup against Chicago, he is high-end DL3 play. The Bears are allowing 30% pressure rate at a 14% sack conversion rate. Josh is a good play this week and as a rookie with limited overall production, he is someone you could look into buying low on him for your roster.

SIT: Uchenna Nwosu, Seattle Seahawks, DL12

Uchenna Nwosu has been delivering above off season expectations this year and normally has been a strong play. He has has a great baseline of 80% snaps and has had back-to-back weeks of 2-sack games. Normally I would advocate playing through poor matchups, however, Tampa Bay is less than ideal with the low pressure rate of 19% allowed by the offensive line, as well a 12% sack conversion rate. Nwosu still has a strong capability to produce with limited production, but Tom Brady has the fastest time to throw out of any QB this year of any QB with at least 100 attempts. This is not a hard “sit”, but definitely consider all options on your roster before just putting Nwosu in right away.

START: Blake Martinez, Las Vegas Raiders, LB42

Blake Martinez was a name that everyone knew and loved for IDP production, however, after suffering his ACL injury. He went from top IDP performer, to major injury, no team, another chance with his former defensive coordinator with the Raiders and now, ironically enough, an injury to Divine Deablo is giving him another chance for IDP (and NFL) relevance. Last week he saw 91% of the snaps and he saw the same amount of 3rd down snaps and was the leader on 1st and 2nd down snaps too. This is even though he is not the defensive play caller on the defense (that guy is coming up later!), and showed above average tackle efficiency at 17.7% this last week. Deablo expects to be out a minimum of 4 weeks with being placed on injured reserve so let’s keep firing up Martinez as he will continue his old habits working with Patrick Graham (former defensive coordinator).

UPDATE: 11/10/2022, 2:19 PM
Blake Martinez has retired from the NFL! Obviously, not a great addition to your starting lineup. Luke Masterson would be the 2nd LB to consider as a stash at this time or if you truly have a need to get a body into your lineup. Sorry to those who have made moves or efforts around this!

START: Willie Gay Jr., Kansas City Chiefs, LB34

Willie Gay Jr. a strong start to the season and really showed out in week 2. However, he was suspended for PEDs and missed 4 games and is working to find his full-time spot back on the field. He has seen his snap percentage slowly creep back up to regular numbers over the last two weeks and I believe this is going to continue as we move forward. With a week 10 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, they are running the 11th most plays per this year with slight uptick of that over the previous 3. During the time he has been back on the field his tackle efficiency has been quite strong at 14.7% this last week he is trending towards a strong play as a high-end LB3.

SIT: Bobby Okereke, Indianapolis Colts, LB41

At the start of this season, many viewed Bobby O as an LB2/3 for sure. However, this season has brought forward a new LB in this group, Zaire Franklin. Zaire has taken the opportunity and ran with it. Earning the captain patch from his teammates and eventually given the green dot eventually by the coaching staff as the defensive play-caller. This along with the other big name, Shaquille (Darius) Leonard, is making it difficult for all of them to find time on the field. Bobby Okereke has seen his snaps dip the last two weeks as Leonard has made his way back onto the field (61% to 46%). This is not stable and should leave us from want to start him our lineups unless it is LB4 or deeper.

START: Duron Harmon, Las Vegas Raiders, DB46

Earlier we talked about Martinez and his return to the field for the Raiders. He is not wearing the green dot because Duron Harmon is the defensive play-caller and this is the strongest indicator of playing time. Harmon saw 100% of the snaps last week as the play-caller and that will hold true for this week. He has taken the opportunity and turned it into solid production this last week with 5 solos and 3 assists. This week against Indianapolis will see a new coach in place for them but still an ideal matchup for a defense. And with 42% of his snaps in the “sweet spot”, against a struggling Colts roster, there should be plenty of opportunity to succeed. This is a strong role moving forward for Harmon now that Abram has been cut (and claimed off waivers by the Packers) and you should consider Harmon a capable starter as a high-end DB3 rest of season.

START: Jalen Ramsey, Los Angeles Rams, DB29

Jalen Ramsey is known for his shut down play as an outside corner by a lot of people around the NFL landscape. He should also be known as a cornerback who provides a solid IDP production from the CB position, even to the point of being a viable DB option in combined position leagues. He has delivered a per game stat line: 4.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1.1 PD. A viable stat line for most weeks, but this is because as an “outside” corner, he still finds 33% of his snaps between the slot and the box alignment. Partnered with his overall snaps he has seen, 98% on the season, he should be considered a low-end DB2 for the rest of the season.

SIT: Justin Simmons, Denver Broncos, DB26

Justin Simmons has been back playing the last 3 weeks, but has been spending a good amount of time on the injury report the last few weeks and as such he has some concern about playing time and performance baked in. Along with that, Justin Simmons is a safety that plays most of his snaps (55%) in the deep safety role. Now this week, the Broncos are playing the Titans who run the 2nd fewest plays per game, and the of those plays, the 3rd most of them are run plays. Which combined with where he plays on the field, this is a negative matchup for Simmons IDP production. Simmons is big name for NFL reasons and has contributed IDP relevance in the past, but this is a matchup to pivot away from.

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