IDP Start/Sit: Week 16

By Jake

Updated: December 22nd 2022

I hope just like this article, you and your fantasy team are moving on to week 16! But if not, you can come read and learn a bit about end of year and get a head start on players and things to watch for moving forward too! Regardless, I hope you and yours have a healthy and happy holidays!! Now let’s play some IDP fantasy football.
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show are the ECR from Fantasy Pros each week.

WEEK 15 RECAP
DL:
Start: Azeez Ojulari (0.5 sack, 2 solos, 2 assists, 2 QB hits. A solid game, easily overshadowed by Kayvon’s huge game)
Start: Kwity Paye (Sack, 5 solos, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits. Paye flashing a strong game.)

Sit: Jeffery Simmons (Sack, 4 solos, 2 assists, TFL, QB hit. Simmons’ ankle seemed fine and he delivered in a big way)

LB:

Start: Jack Sanborn (5 solos. He didn’t goose you, but could’ve been so much more if he didn’t get hurt early in the 3rd quarter)

Start: Zaire Franklin (6 solos, 4 assist, FF. Another strong game)

Sit: Devin Lloyd (7 solos, 2 assists. Lloyd looking the rookie LB for the rest of this season, at least)

DB:
Start: Andrew Adams (4 solos, 2 assists. For where he was ranked and probably available, not a terrible performance)

Start: Marcus Jones (4 solos, assist, PD, 25 return yards. He took 2 offensive snaps, no stats. Saw 100% of the IDP snaps though)

Sit: Jalen Thompson (3 solos, 6 assists. Strong delivery in the tackle game, a lot of assisted tackles though.)

START: Greg Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL27

Greg Rousseau has done a wonderful job as a pass-rusher this season and his PFF grade shows this with a very good 81.2 grade for the season. He also been a capable starter at times for our IDP rosters. This week against Chicago is shaping up to be another one of those weeks. In every game with at least 8 pass-rush snaps, Rousseau has posted a minimum of 3 pressures (per PFF). He has converted that into 8 sacks for a very respectable season so far. Enter the Bears who have an offensive line that is tied for 8th worst in pressures allowed (26%) and tied for 4th worst in sack conversion allowed (19%). This paired with Justin Fields tendency to hold on to the ball for a long time, he has the longest time to throw of any QB this season who has taken at least 100 drop backs, will allow for an athletic Edge player like Rousseau to find his way home for a big play. Rousseau is a strong DL2 play this week, with DL1 upside.

START: Jaelan Phillips, Miami Dolphins, DL47

Jaelan Phillips may sound familiar to you if you read this article every week. I liked him a few weeks ago, and I liked what he had for his playoff run as well. He had a strong game against the Bills this last week and I believe in him moving forward. Rousseau had a wonderful PFF pass-rush grade, but Phillips is just phenomenal. He has a season grade of 89.2! And his last 5 games highlight this especially. Over that stretch he is averaging 4.6 pressures, 1.0 sack, 1.2 QB hits, and 2.4 hurries per game. He clearly has the tools and the talent, welcome in the Packers for week 16. Now Green Bay boasts one of the better pressures allowed rate, tied for 4th best (22%), however, when they do allow pressures, they are more likely to turn into sacks, tied for 12th worst (17%). In a matchup that both teams need the win, I expect big plays and the effort to match from both sides and I see Phillips as high-end DL2 this week.

SIT: J.J. Watt, Arizona Cardinals, DL29

J.J. Watt looked like vintage Watt in week 15, with 3 sacks! While we love the positive news for a former FFIDP legend (2013-2015 Watt was insane!), but I do not like what week 16 could bring for Watt and his FFIDP output. A matchup of two savvy vets trying to make the most out of their season in Watt versus Tampa Bay and Tom Brady. Tampa Bay and all the complaints about their offensive line, Brady has found a way to operate within it and try to make it work. And that way is with very quick passes as Brady has the second fastest time to throw out of all QBs that have taken at least 100 drop backs (2.33 seconds). Brady will probably see some pressure, but I would expect very limited pass-rush production for Watt this week. Tampa is middle of the back at 15th best pressure rate (23%) but are tied for 5th best for sack conversion rate (10%). J.J. is someone I would consider in the DL4 range, which would make in unplayable in most formats.

START: Joe Thomas, Chicago Bears, LB67

First of all, a huge shoutout to Jack Sanborn and the fun and amazing performances he gave to FFIDP and the Chicago Bears after the Roquan Smith trade. However, his season is officially over after being placed on injured reserve. With his injury, welcome in Joe Thomas. In his replacement of Sanborn, Joe Thomas gave produced 6 combined tackles, sack, TFL, QB hit and all in 43 snaps. I am not saying he will produce big-play upside this week, but at LB67, his tackle efficiency and production has strong potential as he looks like a full-time role replacement for Chicago, which has been very productive for the non-Mike LB role this year. Joe Thomas is a low-end LB3 this week.

START: Deion Jones, Cleveland Browns, LB40

Cleveland’s LB room has been an ambiguous mess for FFIDP for good portions of the year… and we once again, have some semblance of clarity. It only took injuries to almost every other LB first (Anthony Walker, Sione Takitaki, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Jacob Phillips to name a few). But now, we have Deion Jones, the man standing above the rubble. This really is a matter of volume for Jones at this point and he appears to have it all. 88% in week 14 but now last week, he was the only LB to see over 30 total snaps (out of their 63 total). That type of solitary volume is hard to find and makes him a strong LB3 this week in their matchup against the Saints.

SIT (fade): Jamin Davis, Washington Commanders, LB32

Jamin Davis has done a solid job taking on the lead role since Cole Holcomb’s injury for the Commanders in week 7. And in the last 3 weeks he has looked like a better FFIDP lineup option as well racking up an average of 9.7 combined tackles in that span. However, at this point in the season, we do have the luxury of understanding what a matchup can mean to a positional group and as such, the San Francisco 49ers, are one of the worst matchups for a LB. If you want to take a look at some of the data, I strongly recommend checking out @moncal on Twitter. He does a wonderful job capturing this information and sharing it out there. For this week, the 49ers offer the worst expected LB performances over season average. This makes Davis a strong fade for me and I would consider starting him if you truly have “no other options” in that LB3/4 range.

START: Tariq Woolen, Seattle Seahawks, DB34

Tariq Woolen has been an amazing story this year for what was supposed to be a rebuilding Seattle Seahawks. They yet again, find a 5th round corner, to come into the league and deliver from year 1. Now, what he can do for his career, we have to wait and see. But for week 16, against the Kansas City Chiefs, this is a good FFIDP matchup. The Chiefs are the 3rd highest passing team with 551 pass attempts, they have a QB in Mahomes that loves to make difficult throws, that lead to turnover worthy plays, which he has 15 of on the year (tied for 13th worst) and this has resulted in 11 interceptions (tied for 3rd worst). Woolen has already shown a penchant for play-making with his 6 INTs and 6 PDs. Woolen is high-end DB3 for me with DB2 upside.

START: Jason Pinnock, New York Giants, DB48

Jason Pinnock has stepped with the injury to Xavier McKinney and coach Daboll has already confirmed that McKinney will not be back this week and is out against the Vikings. This gives him the full-time, albeit as the deep safety primarily for the Giants. However, the Vikings are one of the more pass-happy teams in the NFL and aren’t shy about it. Cousins is 4th on total pass attempts at 544 and I would expect more of the same this week. What is more important, is that Cousins leads the NFL in attempts (127) in the intermediate area of the field (10-19 yards downfield) which is a wonderful area to get that deep safety involved! Pinnock is a low-ceiling play this week, but has a strong floor for a full-time safety and should be closer to a high-end DB4 with DB3 upside.

SIT (fade): Donovan Wilson, Dallas Cowboys, DB10

Dallas has had a three-headed approach to safety most of this year with Donovan Wilson, Jayron Kearse, and Malik Hooker. This has led to some up and down usage at times, but when all are healthy, Wilson is generally seeing the lower snaps of the three. Along that note, Kearse and Wilson are generally taking on the “box” role but Kearse is doing it with greater frequency as well as more snaps in the slot too. With a very important game against division rival, the Eagles, you would expect a big performance from the defense. But I have reservations about Donovan Wilson as a DB1. It would take a setback for Jayron Kearse to not play to have this level of confidence. But Kearse did a routine of Limited Practice, Limited, Full Participant and played a full complement of snaps last week and is trending exactly the same this week. I have Wilson close to a DB3 this week.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 8

By Jake

Updated: October 27th 2022

Week 7 is in the rearview mirror and we have a smaller amount of byes this week, but we still want to dig into our lineups and find those ideal matchups, positive or negative trends, or some potential buys / sells. Week 7’s starts and sits played out pretty well for the most part, and we should have a newer crowd joining in now with our recent inclusion with the IDP Show! For those who are not familiar, with this article, we are trying to identify some of those fringe players or deeper plays for our IDP lineups. With that brief reset, let’s get ourselves into week 8 with this week’s callouts.

WEEK 7 RECAP
DL:
Start: Dorance Armstrong (1 solo, 2 assist, 1 sack, FR, TFL, QB hit)

Sit: Emmanuel Ogbah (Inactive, hopefully you pivoted to have a backup)

LB:

Start: Nicholas Morrow (3 solos, 2 assists)

Sit: Cody Barton (5 solos)

DB:
Start: Deshon Elliott (5 solos, 4 assist, TFL. Snaps trending down, pay attention)

Sit: Justin Simmons (3 solos)

START: Kayvon Thibodeaux, New York Giants, DL31

Since returning from injury, Thibodeaux has seen consistent usage in this Giants defense. Since Week 3, he’s averaged 77% of snaps, including 84.3% in the last 3 games. He’s also seeing unique utilization and pre-snap alignment in Wink Martindale’s defense, which is thriving with blue-chip talents like Thibodeaux. The pressures have been there too, with 13 over the past 4 games. However, those pressures have only resulted in 1 sack. While the conversion rate of 7.6% is disappointing, keep in mind Thibodeaux just finished his 5th NFL game. What should be encouraging at this point is the number of pressures because that tells us: the sacks are coming. And there’s room to improve that pressure rate, which has been 10.7% over the last 4 games. Week 7 looks like a favorable matchup against Seattle, which allows a slightly below-average pressure rate, but the conversion-to-sack rate is one of the highest so far this year. And with the amount of pressure that the Giants have been bringing this year, it looks like a great time to fire up Thibodeaux!

START: Rasheem Green, Houston Texans, DL51

Green doesn’t have perfect usage, but it is still ideal as a baseline. His snap percentage over the last 5 games has been 57%, good for 38 snaps a game. The Texans have put Greenard on IR this past week creating a bigger need from the DL rotation. He has shown increased success in the run game in the past weeks (73.2 week 4, 89.2 week 5) along with a good 11.2% pass-rush pressure rate. The upcoming matchup with the Titans offer two paths to success with Tennessee’s current QB situation. Tannehill plays and the Titans 31st ranked offensive line in terms of pressure rate allowed. Green should find a way to get after an injured Tannehill with the favorable matchup and previous success. Now if Malik Willis is taking snaps, you might think he is too mobile for Green to be effective. But, the real catch is, younger, mobile QBs they tend to hold on to the ball much longer in an attempt to make plays or due to inexperience reading a defense. This leads to increased sack opportunities in its own right. Green is an upside play, but this is a great week to go for it!

SIT: Chandler Jones, Las Vegas Raiders, DL38

Chandler Jones is a well-known IDP name for those who have played, however, his time might be past now. Chandler converted his first sack (only a 1/2 as well) this week. He has had below average pass-rush pressure rate at 7.6%. This week he gets a below average matchup against New Orleans. They are allowing only a 23% pressure rate (tied 9th best) and 14% sack conversion (tied 14th best). On top of the poor IDP performances, his PFF grades are some of the lowest of his long career. The final kicker to this? He is doing this while Maxx Crosby is dominating and drawing almost all of the attention along that defensive front too. It might be a time to move on from all of our shares of Chandler Jones if you are still holding.

START: Quay Walker, Green Bay Packers, LB30

Quay has come on strong for a rookie playing an average of 45 snaps per game and 76% of the total snaps with De’Vondre Campbell entrenched as the LB1. He has found a way to be efficient with his time with a very good 16% tackle efficiency, which at this point should be indicative of what we should expect to see most games this year. Even with a less than ideal snap count below 80% or being closer to 90%, the Buffalo Bills are the matchup this week and are top 10 in plays run this year as well as top 10 in passing plays ran. Quay has shown a greater strength in coverage while needing some work in run defense. The Bills are an ideal matchup for Quay to produce numbers this week. And we will see the Packers defense in this matchup once more in this article. #foreshadowing

START: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Cleveland Browns, LB27

The Cleveland Browns have had a very ambiguous linebacker room for most of this year. Things only got more unclear with the signing of Deion Jones. However, Jacob Phillips injury (pectoral, season-ending) should set us up for the rest of the year. Jones seems to be the one (and has the experience of it) to wear the green dot for play calling and see close to 100% of snaps, if not this next, then the following. Who steps up into that LB2 role should JOK. He saw his highest snap count this past week, one of his best graded games per PFF this year, and made a beautiful punch out for the game to keep Cleveland fighting in the game. The biggest challenge to snaps would be the next LB in Sione Takitaki and his usage would align more with Jones leaving JOK’s snaps safe for him. JOK may not be a 100% snap player this season, but he will see enough snaps to be relevant. Finally, his matchup this week against Cincinnati and their significant uptick in passing rate in all game scripts, bode well for JOK to be involved quite a bit on Monday night.

SIT: Tae Crowder, New York Giants, LB68

Tae Crowder was the guy to start the year with 3 out of the first 4 weeks having 100% of the snaps. The last two weeks we saw it drop under 70% and with Landon Collins getting acclimated more, Crowder’s snaps are even more in danger. This alongside his bottom of the barrel performances per PFF grading (29.4 overall) Crowder’s job does not look very secure. He additionally has missed 11 tackles already this season too. He is someone that you should be looking to move on from for the season and if anyone sees value, try and move on.

START: Adrian Amos, Green Bay Packers, DB50

Adrian Amos has had great usage this year, outside of week 4’s injury against the Patriots, with 100% outside of that. And his sweet spot alignment (box, slot, DL) has been up over the last 3 weeks at 59%!! This is reflected in his production uptick too, 20 combined tackles, TFL, QB hit in the last 3 games. These games have also seen more defensive snaps versus some earlier games, but that should still be the case this week as the Packers take on the Buffalo Bills Sunday night. This should be a 65+ snap game and that combined with the ideal and increased sweet spot usage, Amos is a strong play this week.

START: Eric Rowe, Miami Dolphins, DB45

This is one of the worst reasons for someone to move up the board, but with Brandon Jones season-ending ACL injury, Eric Rowe is next in line to play more snaps. Eric was already cutting into Jones’ usage in smaller bits when they were both healthy and active this season. Miami’s defense loves to utilize their safeties up in the box and blitz them with good frequency too. This is a nice pick up and play option for streaming or taking the big upside swing for a sack or turnover (assuming your league has big play scoring).

SIT: Kyle Dugger, New England Patriots, DB27

Kyle Dugger was an IDP fantasy darling his first two years in the league and has made some big plays already this year (59 yard fumble return for TD in week 5, INT and 2 PDs in week 6). However, this season has been plagued with some injury and with the Belichick-ien way rotating defensives players, Adrian Phillips, Devin McCourty, Jabrill Peppers, and Kyle Dugger the key players in this conversation, missing time is not a great way to try and lock in your spot. Limited usage combined with the matchup of the Jets this week, who are only running 54 plays per game offensively means a very small pool of opportunities. Now Dugger can make big plays for sure, but the injury limitations, the reduced snap count, and overall limited chances against the Jets, let’s give Dugger a week to rest on your fantasy bench.

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