IDP Start/Sit: Week 7

Updated: October 18th 2023

IDP Start/Sit: Week 7

 

It was not a great week 5, but just like teams dealing with all kinds of injuries, we need to press on and find the right guy this week and make our teams better for it! And we might want to even consider where we are going to be next week when we get hit with a ton of teams on their bye week as well.

Week 6 Recap

DL:

Start: Grady Jarrett (1 sack, 1 solo, 1 assist, 1 TFL, 2 QB hits) 👍

Sit: Jonathon Cooper (1 sack, 3 solos, 1 TFL, 2 QB hits, 1 PD) 👎

LB:

Start: Tyrel Dodson (2 solos, 5% of snaps) 👎- This is clearly Dorian Williams’ job

Sit: Frankie Luvu (5 solos, 4 assists, TFL) 👎 

DB:

Start: Devon Witherspoon (4 solos, 3 PD) 👍

Sit: Marcus Maye (2 solos, 2 assists) 👍

Week 7 Starts & Sits

START: Dexter Lawrence, New York Giants, DL45 (DT09)

Dexter Lawrence has an amazing 2022 campaign, for the NFL and IDP. Career highs in snaps, pressures, sacks, hits, tackles, you name it. His start to 2023 has not been nearly as productive with 0 sacks so far through 6 games. The nice thing is, his underlying metrics are in line or better than his 2022 season. His pass-rush pressure rate is up about 1.5% to 13.7% and his tackle efficiency is up 0.5% to 7.7%. And his win rate is up 2% to 27% as well. However, this just hasn’t delivered results for IDP quite well yet.

Now enter the Washington Commanders. In their last game against one of the leagues worst pass rushes (over the last several years), they still managed to allow 11 pressures and 5 sacks on Howell’s 29 drop backs. I can’t imagine a better way for someone to deliver a sack than to get the Commanders. Lawrence will continue his dominance, but I think he also maximizes that with at least a sack this week.

SIT: Leonard Floyd, Buffalo Bills, DL25 (ED19)

Leonard Floyd has been a great addition to the Buffalo Bills defensive front with the absence of Von Miller. Floyd has delivered some great weeks already for IDP with 7 total sacks through 6 games. The floor is a bit limited for Buffalo Bills pass rushers as they rotate pretty consistently and his shows with his 7 total tackles as well. Their matchup against the Patriots is a fairly average one for pass rushers. But the thing we are looking at here is a pass rusher who has an average win rate at 12.3%, and a solid 11.8% pass rush pressure rate. But he has also greatly over-produced with his 7 sacks on 16 pressures. On average, we would expect to see 2.5 sacks from that level of pressure created. So with a lower floor for his play, some likely negative regression in terms of his sack production, and an average matchup, Floyd is a fade for me this week.

START: Dorian Williams, New England Patriots, LB34

Dorian Williams looked like he might be on a short leash or even on his way to the dog house in week 5 after stepping in for the injured Matt Milano. Williams played first but was pulled in favor of Tyrel Dodson who finished up the game. However, it seems a week of practice and planning have gone a long week to help Dorian. His PFF grades looked better this week and he delivered a much better IDP performance, too.

His 9 tackles on 65 snaps was a great start to his first game with as a starter. This week he gets the New England Patriots which seems to have made a greater focus on utilizing their running backs in Elliott and Stevenson last week and their increased utilization means increased opportunities for the Bills’ LBs. Dorian is looking like a strong start weekly for us moving forward with this role in his hands.

SIT: Eric Kendricks, Los Angeles Chargers, LB35

Eric Kendricks may have lost his 3-down role with his most recent absence due to his injuries. In his return, with seemingly no limitations, Eric Kendricks was at 68% snaps in week 4 and saw that increase in week 5, but it was still limited to 83% while Kenneth Murray was at 100% of snaps. His tackle efficiency is at 11.2%, which is slightly below league-average, but not terrible. However, when you compare below-average production (even if slightly) with reduced utilization, it is a recipe to under-deliver for IDP value.

Kansas City does present more opportunities for opposing defenses with its total plays ran, however, the Chargers are an above-average offense as well, which means fewer overall opportunities for the Chiefs’ offense, too. I don’t believe this to be as much of a plus matchup for Chargers’ linebackers and all that wrapped up together, I am not in on Kendricks as top 36 LB this week.

START: Grant Delpit, Cleveland Browns, DB30 (S27)

Grant Delpit has had a strong year for IDP so far. He has averaged 5.5 tackles, has 2 PDs, FR, and in INT. He has done a little of everything and has a strong tackle floor as well. 4 out of his 5 games he has hit at least 5 tackles, the one game he didn’t and only recorded 2 tackles? He played his season low snaps in the box. So why do we like Delpit this week? Besides his normal usage in the box alignment, the Jaguars have shown us in two matchups this season that to slow down the Colts offense, you use a base alignment with a box heavy front. With Delpit’s experience and capability and how Jim Schwartz has historically ran his defenses, I think it is safe to believe we will some of Delpit’s best usage there. Pair that with his proven success already, I believe this will be a great week for Delpit’s production, especially his tackle production.

SIT: Rudy Ford, Green Bay Packers, DB21 (S21)

Ford has been a regular contributor for IDP relevance this year for the Green Bay Packers. 37 tackles on his 351 snaps, for a strong 10.54% tackle efficiency. He also has a pair of passes defensed and an interception. So why would we want to take someone with this level of production out of our lineup? Well, the Denver Broncos on the otherside of the ball are averaging the lowest plays ran over the last three games of 51.3 plays per game. Taking his tackle efficiency, that gives him about 5.4 tackles this game, which isn’t terrible. Their last game, Ford didn’t have a full game of Quay Walker to limit the opportunity that Ford would have to make his own plays. With Quay expected to be back this week and the lowered opportunities due to facing a struggling Broncos’ offense, I am looking at Ford more as a back-end DB3.

 

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More Analysis by Jake

IDP Start/Sit: Week 12

Updated: November 24th 2022

It’s the holiday season and I hope we all have a ton to be thankful for this year. Let’s see if we can find a bit more to be thankful for with some great lineup decisions for all your IDP teams out there!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show for them are what is the ECR over from Fantasy Pros for this week.

WEEK 11 RECAP
DL:
Start: Alex Highsmith (1 sack, 2 QB hits)
Start: Denico Autry (27 snaps, QB hit. Injured in the 2nd half but a lower performance up to that point)

Sit: Khalil Mack (1 hit, 1 solo)


LB:

Start: Frankie Luvu (Sack, 6 solos, 4 assists)

Start: Jamin Davis (2 solos, 3 assists)

Sit: Zaven Collins (3 solos, 3 assists)

 

DB:
Start: Dane Belton (2 solos. 59% of snaps, unstable usage and limited production, I’d pivot away moving forward)

Start: Tyrann Mathieu (5 solos, PD)

Sit: Kyle Dugger (Sack, 3 solos, 2 assists, PD. 90% of snaps! Dugger season might be in full effect moving forward)

 

START: Michael DannaKansas City Chiefs, DL53

Michael Danna has spent most of the season as a rotational pass-rusher for the Chiefs and has seen 53% of the snaps this year for their defense. Normally, not an ideal target to start. However, he has found a respectable 10.9% pass-rush pressure rate in his limited snaps. This week he gets the Los Angeles Rams who have the highest sack conversion from pressures allowed. In such a positive matchup, he shouldn’t need as many opportunities to deliver big-play upside. Additionally, the Rams should be in a negative game script that involved more passing, only increasing the opportunities for Danna. This is a deeper play, but should be available in the vast majority of leagues and has solid upside this week as a low-end DL3!

START: Lorenzo CarterAtlanta Falcons, DL69

Lorenzo Carter has been a consistent figure in the Atlanta Falcons defensive front. He has seen 81% of the snaps so far this season, which is very strong usage for a DL position. Carter has a very favorable matchup against the Commanders who are allowing a 29% pressure rate and 17% sack conversion rate. Even though his pass-rush pressure rate is average at 7.8%. The nice bonus to his matchup this weekend as well, is his solid PFF run defense grade of 65.9 for the season. This paired with the Commanders focus on the run game (44% of plays are run) and are one of the higher plays ran per game over the last 3 weeks at 69.7. With these things considered, I like Lorenzo as a high-end DL3 candidate.

SIT: Aidan HutchinsonDetroit Lions, DL20

This pains me to even consider Hutch here, especially with such elite snap counts, 86% on the season. However, he has delivered some big performances this season (and I believe will be a strong dynasty asset) he doesn’t have an ideal matchup against the Buffalo Bills this weekend. The Bills have only allowed a 24% pressure rate, top third in the league, as well as 8% sack conversion, which is 2nd best. Hutchinson’s IDP performances have been brought up by some unlikely things to continue. He has 2 games with interceptions in the last 3 weeks as well as 3 of his 5.5 sacks coming in 1 game in week 2. Additionally, his tackle floor for snaps played his average at best, 2.3 tackles per game. You can always start Hutch if you need him, but if you got better DL2/3 options, I would fire them up instead.

START: Kaden EllissNew Orleans Saints, LB29

Kaden Elliss, the man behind the man. With Pete Werner experiencing an injury and having surgery, Kaden has stepped up into that role and has he thrived for IDP purposes. He is in week 3 of that recovery so if you or someone else hasn’t already grabbed Elliss, do so and fire him up. The Saints are optimistic that Werner will try and play again this year, but until then we will roll with Kaden. The last two weeks he has seen snap percentages of 96% and 92% and he used them to deliver 2.5 sacks, 18 tackles, 3 QB hits, PD, and FF. His sack production has been very efficient but he has done well this whole year with a very strong 77.8 pass-rush PFF grade on the season. Last week, he topped out at his pass-rush grade with a 91.2 performance and I think this is more of what is to come. A great tackle floor with big-play, sack upside. Now, against the 49ers and their stronger pass protection, you’d think its less than ideal, but they are running nearly 69 snaps per game and the increased opportunity should balance out for Elliss this week. You should be looking at Elliss as a top 20 LB this week with next week looking the same too.

START: Dre GreenlawSan Francisco 49ers, LB34

Dre Greenlaw has just consistently been an efficient tackler and continues to do so this season at 14.9% and only missed 6 tackles on the season so far. Greenlaw tends to take the coverage side of the RB in most situations between him and Fred Warner. The matchup with the Saints and Alvin Kamara means Greenlaw can take that tackle efficiency and increased opportunities facing off against the Saints and Kamara. This matchup favors his Greenlaw’s ability and playstyle. As a note, for LB we love to find someone with near 100% snaps and the last 3 weeks have been rough for Greenlaw, but don’t let that fool with you and ejection in week 10 and starters being pulled in a blowout in week 11. Don’t let those numbers shy you away from Greenlaw. He is a strong candidate for LB2 this week and most of the weeks going forward.

SIT: Alex SingletonDenver Broncos, LB27

Alex Singleton is Mr. Efficiency. He has a career tackle efficiency of 17.6% and this season is sitting at a cool 19.7% efficiency this season. While this is great, you still need the volume to make it count for overall production. Singleton has passed Jonas Griffith as LB2 on the depth chart, but he is still only seeing 59% of the snap count. While normally he can turn that into a usable week for IDP, his matchup against the Carolina Panthers is not ideal. Their offense has struggled all year and they are running the worst, 55.6 plays per game on the season. This does not bode well for a strong week for Alex and I would be looking elsewhere this week for an LB3.

START: Grant Delpit, Cleveland Browns, DB29

Grant Delpit has seen very close to 100% of the defense’s snaps for the entire season. Along with the elite usage, he has taken 56% of his total snaps from the “sweet spot” (DL, box, slot). This is great usage for any safety in IDP and as such he is a strong DB2/3 candidate on that alone. Combined with a matchup against the Buccaneers this weekend who run 67 plays per game and 72 over the last 3 means even more opportunities. And Tom Brady is leading the league in passing attempts from 0-9 yards this season, which lines up greatly with players in that “sweet spot”. Delpit should be a strong DB2 candidate DB1 upside.

START: Vonn BellCincinnati Bengals, DB32

Vonn Bell is another safety with elite snap usage, with 98% played for the entirety of the season. He is sitting at 56.1% of his total snaps as well from the “sweet spot”. His matchup this week, however, does not have a pass heavy team for him to feast upon for IDP production. He gets a run-heavy team that will continue to attack the middle of the field with their run game. This gives Bell a much stronger floor than his DB32 ranking justifies. It is a solid floor play this week, with a lower ceiling, but this still makes Bell a high-end DB3 to a low-end DB2.

SIT: Kerby JosephDetroit Lions, DB13

Kerby Joseph has been a pleasant surprise for the Detroit Lion’s defense this year as a rookie coming on due to injuries. Once given the opportunity he has seen almost a near perfect 100% snap count. And with those snaps, he has found a way to deliver big plays with 3 interceptions and 5 PDs. The INTs are not something we should rely on this point but take more into his upside. However, teams have been taking the cover-2, or two high safeties approach against the Bills offense this year, which leads to a lower tackle efficiency overall and creates a great dependency on big-plays, which Kerby has delivered at times this year. Joseph has strong usage and a matchup that should allow for a higher snap count this week, but his floor feels too low for me to confidently use him as a DB1/2 this week. His level sits as DB3 for me but if you want to plug him in focusing on big-play opportunities, it does exist.

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