The Watch List: 2018 ACC Preview
Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players, storylines and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. Check back throughout the Summer for previews on each conference and my preseason predictions. During the regular season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year.
Storylines to Watch
- Heisman Favorite: Cam Akers, RB, Florida State. According to Vegas, running backs Cam Akers and AJ Dillon have the best odds of winning the Heisman from the ACC. Clemson QB Kelly Bryant is close behind but I’m not sure he holds onto his starting job so I wouldn’t be putting money on him now. Akers has 2,000 yard potential while Dillon has 20 TD potential; ultimately I lean towards Akers as he will be playing on a better team than Dillon and should get more national exposure.
- Darkhorse Heisman Candidate: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke. As I have previously discussed in this space, picking a conference’s best dual-threat quarterback is your best bet for predicting the Heisman winner. I’m a fan of Jones, see below, and think he has 3,000/750 yard upside but he needs to score more. Last year he had just 18 total TDs and would need to double that to get in the Heisman conversation. I’m not saying it’s likely, or even probable, but it’s possible.
- Offensive Player of the Year: Taquon Marshall, QB, Georgia Tech. Few players in the FBS will be as valuable to their unit as Marshall to the Georgia Tech offense. He won’t get the national recognition of somebody like Cam Akers but he’ll put up big numbers and be a CFF darling. If he stays healthy, Marshall will top 1,000 yards each passing and rushing and will total 30+ TDs.
- Defensive Player of the Year: Dexter Lawrence, DL, Clemson. Take your pick from the Clemson defensive line. I’ll go with Lawrence because of the impact he has on the opposing line on every play. Lawrence had a huge freshman season with 62 tackles and 6.5 sacks but regressed in 2017 to 33-2.0. At 6040/340, he’s a mountain of a man. It’s rare to find an interior defensive lineman with the combination of size and athleticism that Lawrence shows.
- Newcomer of the Year: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson. According to 247Sports, Trevor Lawrence was the top rated recruit in the 2018 class and had a near-perfect grade of 0.9999, the highest I have seen on their site. Lawrence is huge, listed at 6060, and put up equally big numbers in high school. His recruiting profile on 247Sports touts a 160:21 ratio with over 13,000 passing yards. I take high school stats with a grain of salt of course, but that’s just insane. I am not a big Kelly Bryant fan so I think it’s only a matter of time before we see Lawrence take over at Clemson.
- Underclassmen to Watch: The ACC is chock-full of impact sophomores. Rather than pick one, I decided I needed to mention a few:
- Cam Akers, RB, Florida State: Akers will be the best of a talented group of young backs in the ACC this season.
- Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson: Etienne is an explosive runner with a long stride. He gained 766 yards and scored 13 TDs in a RBBC role last season and finished with a 7.2 yards per carry average. It remains to be seen if he can be as effective with a larger workload.
- AJ Dillon, RB, Boston College: Dillon is a 6000/245 bruiser who has a nose for the end zone. He scored 14 TDs last season and should see 20 this season. He’s a workhorse back who earned 300 carries as a true freshman and had four games with over 30.
- Greg Dortch, WR, Wake Forest: Dortch is an undersized (5090/165) slot and screen receiver who dominated at times in 2017 before getting injured. Against Louisville he had an incredible 10-167-4 line before falling to an abdominal injury. He contributes as a rusher and returner as well.
- Best QB-WR Tandem: Ryan Finley and Kelvin Harmon, NC State. Finley is quietly the conference’s best quarterback prospect; meanwhile Harmon should be a first round fantasy rookie pick in 2019. I doubt many casual fans know their names though because they shared the spotlight last season with draftees DE Bradley Chubb, TE Jaylen Samuels and RB Nyheim Hines. Finley and Harmon eclipsed 3,500 and 1,000 yards respectively so they are a productive duo. I have more on these two Wolfpack stars below.
- Best RB Corps: Georgia Tech. It should come as no surprise that a triple option team like Tech would land in my “Best RB Corps” spot. The Yellow Jackets led the conference in rushing (307 yards per game) and return their six leading rushers from that squad. The two that catalyze the option attack are QB TaQuon Marshall (1,146-17 rushing and 927-10 passing) and RB KirVonte Benson (1,073-6).
- Coach on the Hottest Seat: Larry Fedora, North Carolina. Fedora has been in the news recently after his curious remarks at ACC Media Day. Those comments were best summarized by Luke Decock in the Charlotte News-Observer: “This is all ludicrous, of course, the earnest hyperbole a little less dangerous than the willful denial.” Even if Fedora didn’t put a target on his own back, he went 3-9 in 2017 and hasn’t won a bowl game since 2013. The Tar Heels are also dealing with “another compliance black eye” after numerous players were suspended for selling team-issued apparel. A winning coach could withstand most of this drama but not one who suffers another losing season.
Teams to Watch
Miami (10-3 in 2017)
I was consistently down on Miami last season. I did not believe they could run the table and kept picking against them during their winning streak. The wheels finally came off in late November when Miami lost to Pitt, a game I still remember for how frustrating it was to watch, which started a season-ending three game losing skid. Miami should be in the ACC Coastal running again but what makes them even more interesting to watch are the plethora of NFL prospects they will field. On offense they will feature RB Travis Homer, WR Ahmmon Richards and TE Michael Irvin Jr (Editor’s note: Irvin Jr. is now injured). The defense returns its top five tacklers, including first round hopeful safety Jaquan Johnson. LB Shaq Quarterman and CB Michael Jackson should end with high draft grades as well. The Hurricanes feature 14 returning starters, including QB Malik Rosier. I was very critical of Rosier last season and hope that an additional season of experience helps him play more efficiently. If he does, Miami will end up in another New Year’s Six bowl, as I am currently predicting, with a shot at the playoff.
Florida State (7-6 in 2017)
I don’t think there is any disagreement among college football fans that the Seminoles will rebound from a demoralizing 7-6 season last year which required them to make up a meaningless game against UL-Monroe just to become bowl eligible. The question is, just how high do they rebound with new head coach Willie Taggart? I have gone out on a slimsy (yes, that’s a word) limb and predicted that they will be selected for the College Football Playoff. Three of FSU’s toughest games (the nationally broadcast opener versus VaTech, Clemson and Florida) will be played in Tallahassee. I’m also feeling optimistic because I think the offense will be miles ahead of 2017. QB Deondre Francois returns from injury; if he’s shelved again, sophomore James Blackman now has valuable experience. The offensive line, which tends to be a weak spot for Florida State, returns four starters. The largest factor will be the running backs: wunderkind soph Cam Akers and senior Jacques Patrick. Akers crested 1,000 yards (1,094) and earned 2nd-Team All-ACC honors as a true freshman. Patrick is a 6030/231 bruiser who added 780 yards of his own. Both backs had seven scores. The receiving corps is filled with young and/or unproven targets but the team’s leading receiver, Nyqwan Murray returns. The defense may struggle as they only return four starters and lost top prospect Derwin James. One interesting stat gives me hope: per Phil Steele, the last time the Seminoles returned just four defensive starters, which was 2013, they allowed just 12.1 yards per game. Oh, and by the way, that team went 14-0 and won the BCS National Championship.
Players to Watch
Honorable Mentions
- Daniel Jones, QB, Duke: Jones is on my shortlist of candidates for the 2019 QB1 spot. In my limited study, I noted that he has good anticipation and throws excellently while on the run. He has above average athleticism for the position and runs with good vision. There are some areas for improvement, namely his passing accuracy and pocket awareness. Plus, he could add a few pounds to fill out his 6050 body due to his physical playing style. His touchdown total decreased last season (16 to 14) while his interceptions increased (9 to 11), which is not a good sign. He did add 518-7 on the ground which helped keep the Blue Devil offense moving. I’ll check in on Jones periodically this season. If he improves nearer a 2:1 ratio he’ll be in consideration for a first round NFL Draft pick.
- Deondre Francois, QB, Florida State: This time last year, I was one of many college football fans who was expecting Francois to take a big step forward in 2017. Unfortunately, that growth was stunted in the Seminoles’ opener against Alabama after he sustained a season-ending knee injury. True freshman James Blackman filled in and, luckily for Francois, did not do enough to guarantee himself the job for 2018. I think Francois has the inside track to win the starting job but it’s not impossible to think that Blackman wins the gig in Fall camp. Francois is tough as nails but is on the smaller side for a quarterback prospect (6010/205). He has 3,500 yard upside so I am pulling for him and I hope he gets a chance to realize his potential. I am predicting that FSU will make a run to the College Football Playoff and that hope rests squarely on Francois’ shoulders.
- Eric Dungey, QB, Syracuse: I loved watching Dungey last season and recall his standout games against Pitt and Clemson. Sadly, Dungey has a long injury history which has limited him to just 26 career games over three seasons. He’s not all that prolific or efficient (40:21 career ratio and 131.5 career passer rating) but there’s something about him that I enjoy watching. He is a true dual-threat quarterback: in a shortened season he still managed 595 rushing yards and 9 TDs. I’m not sure there exists a universe where Dungey is a relevant 2019 rookie but he’ll be fun to watch in 2018 as long as he stays healthy.
- Travis Homer, RB, Miami: Homer started the season as the backup to Mark Walton but took over after Walton went down with an injury. He had a six game stretch in the middle of the season where he totaled 642 yards and 4 TDs; he also added 12-146-1 as a receiver in that span. Homer did sputter a bit down the stretch but that middle-season burst is encouraging. Per DLF, Homer is one of the youngest draft eligible players in the 2019 class which could increase his draft stock if he can enhance his numbers this season.
- Jaylen Smith, WR, Louisville: Our friends at the Dynasty Command Center loved Smith for the 2018 draft before he decided to return to school. In Volume One of their rookie prospectus they listed Smith as the WR5. Despite coming back for his senior season, Smith is just 21 years old. He has elite size at 6040/219 and pairs his big frame with 4.50 speed. He is a constant deep threat. Eight of his 60 receptions in 2017 went for 25 or more yards; in 2016, on just 27 receptions, that number was even higher at nine. A wrist injury caused him to miss time in 2017 but he finished strong with 7-107-1 in the Cardinals’ bowl game. My biggest concern is whether new starting quarterback Jawon “Puma” Pass can hit Smith downfield with the same frequency.
- Tommy Sweeney, TE, Boston College: Sweeney is the leading returning receiver on a potentially ascending BC team. Last season, he paced the Eagles with 36 receptions, 512 yards and 4 TDs. The passing offense should improve in 2018 with QB Anthony Brown back under center. Brown started the year as a redshirt freshman but missed the end of the campaign with an injury; when he was healthy he struggled (11:9, 51.9%) but another year of experience will help. I have not watched any film of Sweeney but based on his size (6050/255) I expect that he will be able to hold his own as a blocker.
- Austin Bryant, Clelin Ferrell, Dexter Lawrence, Christian Wilkins, DL, Clemson: I don’t have the space, or honestly the expertise, to delve into the Clemson defensive line in this preview. Suffice it to say that they will be a fearsome group. Come next Spring, we could see all four of these guys getting first round NFL Draft buzz. If you don’t believe me, just check out one of many mock drafters who are predicting just that. Some others are saying that this unit is overrated – let’s ask ACC quarterbacks what they think.
- Jaquan Johnson, S, Miami: Johnson is the leading safety prospect according to a number of sources I trust (i.e. Phil Steele’s preview magazine and DraftScout.com). He’s a former 4-star recruit who decided to stay home and eschew offers from heavyweights like USC, LSU and Clemson. Johnson became a full-time starter in 2016 and did not disappoint. He finished with 96 tackles, 4 INTs, 3 forced fumbles and 2 fumble recoveries. The Miami offense prides itself in forcing turnovers and Johnson was an important link in that chain (pun intended).
Ryan Finley, QB, North Carolina State
Finley is entering his third season as the starting signal caller for NC State. He transferred from Boise State in 2015 as a graduate transfer. Finley was granted a sixth year of eligibility because his two seasons at Boise were marred by injuries. So, he arrived at Raleigh as the rare graduate transfer with three years of eligibility for his new team. If you’re thinking that Finley must be an old prospect after such a winding road, you’d be right. Finley is currently 23.6 years old and is the oldest prospect on DLF’s 2019 age table. Age doesn’t necessarily make or break somebody’s draft stock, but it will be a hurdle Finley needs to overcome in scouts’ eyes.
On the field, Finley has played well but has been more of a distributor than a dynamic playmaker. He has completed 63.0% of his passes for NC State with a 35:14 ratio over two seasons. He doesn’t commit many turnovers but he also doesn’t sling the ball around either. He threw for a career-high 3,514 yards in 2017 but his yards per attempt dropped to 7.4 (sixth best in the ACC). Finley added a bit on the ground in 2017: 198 yards and 3 TDs. He’s not the type of prospect whose stats and game logs will garner attention from casual fans. Instead, Finley will need to impress during film study.
I came away from my viewing of Finley feeling conflicted. His best trait for me was his awareness, specifically his penchant for fakes of all kinds. There’s a nuance to his play action and pump fakes that I don’t often notice in other college passers. He also has a good awareness of the field and situation. When he scrambles he rarely takes a hit and instead is able to take a track that gets him out of bounds before contact. This combination of field and situational awareness was perhaps best illustrated by a play against FSU. The Wolfpack were up eleven late in the game but Finley was in shotgun in his own end zone. There was a bad snap and as Finley scrambled for the ball, he swatted it out of the back of the end zone for an intentional safety rather than allowing a defender to fall on it for a game-changing touchdown.
Probably my fave play from studying Finley. Late in game, up 11, swats ball out of EZ for safety rather than potentially giving up a defensive TD. Another example of his positive awareness.
Ryan Finley – Intentional Safety vs Florida State – 2017 https://t.co/K3Rwti1rV8
— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) August 11, 2018
Unfortunately the rest of my notes on Finley were less glowing. He has good accuracy and anticipation on short throws but he’s lacking on intermediate and deep throws. A number of his deep throws were well overthrown or out of bounds so his receiver had no chance. Speaking of short throws, many of his attempts are quick screens or slants without multiple reads. As an athlete he is not quick (maybe 4.75) but he does have functional rushing ability to gain a few yards. His arm is more confident than strong. He trusts himself to fit the ball into tight windows but sometimes he lacks the zip or accuracy to get it done. Right now, I see Finley projecting as an NFL backup with some upside to start an occasional game. (Film watched: Clemson 2017, Florida State 2017)
Kelvin Harmon, WR, North Carolina State
Harmon emerged as a sophomore in 2017, finishing with 69 receptions, 1,017 yards and 4 TDs. His season started off with a bang when he had a combined 19-235-1 line to start the year against South Carolina and Marshall. He also had big games against Notre Dame (7-97-1), Clemson (8-155-1) and Wake Forest (8-105). He has boom or bust capability, shown by a few duds on the game logs: four games under 25 yards. Harmon exhibits a good mix of speed, size and strength. I estimate he has 4.50 speed and he’s listed at 6030/213. While I think Harmon may measure shorter than 6030, there’s no questioning his ability to win the ball in the air.
Put simply, Harmon excels in contested catch situations. He often high points the ball and is strong enough to survive the defender and the ground with possession. He’s also adept at catching the ball over his shoulder while in stride. He’s a powerful runner after the catch who can break tackles and carry defenders on his back for extra yardage. In the game against Clemson, I noted two spectacular routes that he ran which gave him separation. It’s a shame there aren’t more full games cuts of Harmon because I would love to see more of his route running because what I saw was great. He releases well off the line due to his combination of speed and strength. If I were to nitpick, I would say that Harmon needs to be eliminate some of his body catches. Sometimes it’s like he jumps too high which causes him to bring in the ball at his midsection rather than away from the body with his hands.
Based on the above size/speed measureables Harmon would be comparable to guys like Courtland Sutton and Allen Robinson. I think Harmon will project more like Stefon Diggs in the NFL because of his excellent route running ability. Harmon will be a first rounder in rookie drafts next year but I suspect his stock will fluctuate as he’s not as “sexy” as some of the other big name receiver prospects. (Film watched: Clemson 2017, Highlights 2017)
Ahmmon Richards, WR, Miami
Ahmmon Richards starred as a true freshman in 2016. He earned freshman All-American honors after finishing the year with 49 receptions, 934 yards and 3 TDs. His 19.1 yards per reception mark was fourth best in the ACC that season. Expectations were high for Richards in 2017 as a sophomore but unfortunately injury sidelined him to start the season and again in October and then again in December. Richards ended up playing just 7 games, totaling 24 catches for 439 yards and 3 TDs. Encouragingly, he finished the regular season strong, combining for 7-98-2 against Virginia and Pitt. Richards is a lean 6010/190. At that size, I’d like to see him flash 4.45 speed which looks probable on film. Per the Hurricanes, he’s ran a 4.31 and a 4.40 on previous attempts but you always need to question school-reported numbers.
Richards’ tape was frustrating to watch. For starters, he was often the victim of poor quarterback play from Malik Rosier. This was especially apparent against Florida State where Rosier chucked some ducks. Pair that with questionable hands from Richards and you have multiple plays that should have gone for points instead of going incomplete. Richards often body catches the ball; when it does hit his hands he too frequently let’s it zip right through so I question his hand placement and hand strength. His play strength in contested situations is also lacking. He’s not the type of receiver who will play above the rim and win jump balls with regularity. Where Richards excelled is on shorter routes. He has an elite ability to get off the line and away from press-man coverage on slants. He quickly slaps the defender’s hands away and can chop through contact to get open. After the catch, I noted a few plays where Richards showed his speed, cutting ability and some strength to gain extra yards. He even had an impressive hurdle against Syracuse which showed his athletic ability. Unfortunately, my sample size was just ten receptions so I want to see more opportunities for RAC this season. Richards is a willing blocker whom I saw lay out two Seminole defenders (one was a penalty though). He lined up tight in a few goal line situations and did not block well then but in the open field he’ll at least be average. I want to see Richards stay healthy this season and improve the consistency of his hands. If he can pair average hands with his speed and ability to get open at the line he could turn into a valuable NFL asset. (Film watched: Syracuse 2017, Florida State 2017)
Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor. My experimental grading system uses a Madden-like approach by weighting position relevant traits on a 100-point scale; bonus or negative points are awarded based on production, size, injury history and character. Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths. So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113. This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch. For top prospects I may add a third game, while for long shots I might only devote the time for one. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…
- Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
- Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
- Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
- Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
- Draft history: drafthistory.com
- Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
- Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
- Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft
- Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com, the media home for FWAA members
Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.
