IDP Start/Sit: Week 15

Updated: December 14th 2023

 

Well, congratulations. You are reading this because you have made it to your fantasy football playoffs! Or you are just a degenerate of IDP football and you always want to learn. Both deserve congratulations, one just might get you a trophy yet this year though. Let’s dive in.

Week 14 Recap

DL:

Start: Samson Ebukam (1 solo, 1 assist) 👎 

Sit: Chase Young (1 PD) 👍

LB:

Start: Mykal Walker (1 solo, 2 assists, INT, PD) 👍 – Only 44% snaps. Saved by the INT. They seem to be moving on already due to his liability in pass coverage

Sit: Nicholas Morrow (4 solos, 2 assists, 2 PDs) 👎

DB:

Start: Kyle Hamilton (4 solos, 3 assists, TFL) 👍 – Only 56% of snaps, due to injury

Sit: Jalen Pitre (7 solos, 1 assist) 👎 – Apparently this was Zach Wilson’s coming out party???

Week 14 Starts & Sits

START: Greg Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL44 (ED33)

Greg Rousseau and the Buffalo Bills have a huge matchup for the season and their playoff push this week against the Dallas Cowboys. Rousseau appears to be a strong option for our lineups this week as well as we make our push through the fantasy playoffs. Over the last 5 weeks, Rousseau has had one of his best stretches of the season with an impressive 22.6% win rate (8th best over that time). He has also produced 17 pressures that resulted in a 14.65% pass rush pressure rate. This is ideal as the Cowboys are one of the better teams in pressures allowed at 26% this season (one of the third best), but when they do allow those pressures, it is converting into a sack 14% of the time (one of third worst this season). But with Rousseau’s recent success, we can be confident in his ability to generate some pressure and that is most likely going to be converted into a sack this weekend. We are definitely chasing upside this week with a lower tackle floor from Rousseau, but the big plays are there for the taking this weekend.

SIT: Boye Mafe, Seattle Seahawks, DL35 (ED27)

Boye Mafe has had an opportunity to step up for the Seahawks this season with some key injuries and he has done a very nice job for the Seahawks (and IDP). In fact, he even had a stretch of 7 straight games with a sack! However this week, he draws a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. While they are middle of the pack at 26% pressures allowed, they are only allowing those to be converted into sacks at the third best rate of 8%. And despite Mafe’s wonderful production earlier in the season, his last 5 games we have seen his overall production dip a bit. His pressures show similar to Rousseau for our start with 18 pressures produced, however, it is done so with a very average win rate of 11.1%. This tends to indicate the pressures created are more flukey or due to broken plays and less sustainable. Mafe is a fade for me this weekend.

START: Josey Jewell, Denver Broncos, LB32

Josey Jewell has had a bit of an up-and-down season. He started as the green dot and 100% snap, 3-down linebacker for the Broncos. He got hurt, missed time, and seemingly lost his role to Alex Singleton. He saw reduction in his snaps and even a week 10 “demotion” to a non-starter role. However, his last 4 games since that week 10 have been very pleasing. His tackle production has been fairly average (24 tackles on 216 snaps, 11.1% efficiency), but what is exciting is the utilization as a pass-rusher that was not there to start the season. Over that same span he has 27 pass rush opportunities (24 opportunities in his previous 8 games) and he is making the most of it. He has 8 pressures, 5 hurries, a QB hit, and 2 sacks. This week he gets the Detroit Lions who are averaging 17.7 tackles to the LB position, which is one of the better matchups for LB production and this should help bring his floor up a little bit while providing a path to big-play upside.

SIT: David Mayo, Washington Commanders, LB46

David Mayo is coming back to the lineup, this time due to Jamin Davis’ injury. Mayo is a very plain LB. He comes in, does his job. He is not overly efficient, in fact, his tackle efficiency sits below league average for LB when he is in a starting role at 11.9% tackle efficiency. This is acceptable if you are looking for just a simple tackle floor, but at this point, I want to find players for our lineups that can help us WIN our playoff matchup. Mayo brings no real upside either with his pass-rush. His 2 sack game was more of a fluke than something we want to rely on going forward. He averages less than 3 pass rush attempts a game as a starter and the Los Angeles Rams are an overall negative matchup as well for LB scoring for IDP with only 14.9 tackles average to the position and a bottom third scoring overall. Mayo may help your sandwich this week, but I don’t see him helping your lineup in the playoffs.

START: Vonn Bell, Carolina Panthers, DB55 (S42)

Vonn Bell has been an IDP darling for many years from his time in Cincinatti. 1,000+ snap seasons, 90+ tackle seasons, and plenty of other splash plays to go along with it. His first year in Carolina has been a bit of a disappointment though, the uncertainty of the role alongside Chinn and Woods, as well as injuries. However, he seems to be back into a role he is familiar with as the box safety for a defense. Since coming back in week 10, in his 3 full games, he is playing 41.83% of his snaps in the box alignment. Along that same stretch he has provided 4, 7, and 7 tackle games. Enter the Atlanta Falcons and their 4th highest run rate in the NFL. This run rate and Bell’s alignment set him up for a very nice tackle game, but with the upside comes from Desmond Ridder’s 9 interceptions and 10 fumbles this season already through 13 games. It helps provide a nice boost to Bell’s range of outcomes this week along with his steady floor.

SIT: Trevon Moehrig, Las Vegas Raiders, DB42 (S33)

Trevon Moehrig has had a very nice IDP season this year as he has transitioned into more optimal alignment this season. Over the last two seasons we saw him go from 61 box snaps (out of 1,214), to 210 (out of 906), and this season he already has 266 box snaps. He has seen his best tackle totals already through 13 games as well. So why would we fade Moehrig, it is primarily due to his alignment shifting a bit away from the box recently, as well as a potentially bad matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. Of his last 5 games, 4 have seen 15 or fewer box snaps with the peak being 21 and during that same stretch, he is averaging 5.2 tackles per game (that is with a 1 game spike of 10 tackles, too). Then his matchup against the Chargers with Easton Stick at QB, are likely to struggle to move the ball like last week and a short week with the Thursday night game, won’t do the Chargers any favors to keep the offense on the field and Moehrig with enough opportunities to support his production. Moehrig is a great story this season, but he is a fade this week.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 3

Updated: September 20th 2023

IDP Start/Sit: Week 3

 

We have been looking good on our start decisions, but the sits/fades have not worked out, yet. But as we get more information from what teams are doing and how they want to do it, we will make even better-informed decisions. And let’s start making some of those decisions for week 3.

Week 2 Recap

DL:

Start: Khalil Mack (4 solos, 1 assist, 1 sack) 👍

Sit: Quinnen Williams (6 solos) 👎

LB:

Start: Azeez Al-Shaair (5 solos, 5 assists) 👍

Sit: De’Vondre Campbell (9 solos, 4 assists) 👎

DB:

Start: Jevon Holland (8 solos, 2 assists, 1 PBU) 👍

Sit: Marcus Maye (6 solos, 1 assist) 👎

Week 3 Starts & Sits

START: Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL36 (Edge 26)

Gregory Rousseau is one of those “in-between” players for me. He has the talent, but doesn’t get high-end snap counts, and in doing so, he ends up making the big plays at time that get us excited about his upside but the snap percentages near 60% limited his ability to have a more consistent floor. This week though, he has such a favorable matchup against the Washington Commanders, that I am happy to fire up Rousseau as a strong DL option.

Washington has allowed one of the highest pressure rates at 29% so for this season, and teams have been able to take advantage of that as well, registering a just as impressive, 24% sack conversion rate. Rousseau has been able to produce in the pressure department this season as well, with 6 pressures on 33 pass-rush attempts for a very good, 18.18% pressure rate. This matchup looks like a great one for Rousseau to register his first sack of the season (and maybe more?).

SIT: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DL35 (Edge 25)

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka was a player I thought had some great “buy-low” value this off-season due to the path to the volume he seemingly had for the Buccaneers for the 2023 season. JTS is in a similar situation he is receiving only 50-60% of the snaps like Rousseau, but he does not have the consistent performances to justify his value.

He is coming off arguably the best game of his career against the Bears, but I would take that with a grain of salt for the time being, as that was a favorable matchup.

Now he gets the Philadelphia Eagles who have one of the lowest numbers in the league for both pressure rate (21%) and sack conversion (6%). The Eagles also showed us their willingness to lean heavily into what is working for them, and if they can establish a successful run game again, pass-rush opportunities could be very hard to come by for JTS and the Bucs.

START: Alex Anzalone, Detroit Lions, LB35

I might get kicked out of The IDP Show space for even suggesting this, but Anzalone seems in line for some great stats this coming Sunday. The Detroit Lions take on the Atlanta Falcons who have been very efficient moving the ball on the ground so far. They are middle of the back after 2 weeks in plays ran but they are 4th in total run plays this season. And their week 1 matchup, plays ran were skewed lower thanks to multiple turnovers in their opponents’ territory for a short field.

Detroit’s defense has not been anything special yet and is likely to allow Atlanta to pile up a good handful of plays again. If we take a look at the 2 primary LBs from those first matchups and what they did combined:

Week 1 – Panthers had 10 combined LB tackles on 51 snaps and Derrick Brown had an outlier 8 tackle game

Week 2 – Packers had 32 combined LB tackles on 82 snaps

The answer likely lies somewhere in the middle, but the game script, Anzalone’s usage, and Arthur Smith’s extreme penchant to run the ball, set nicely for the Detroit LBs and Alex Anzalone.

SIT: Nick Bolton, Kansas City Chiefs, LB10

Nick Bolton is a guy you likely spent high capital getting on your roster and might not be viable to sit him, but at least manage your expectations for this week.

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Chicago Bears and the Bears have not been good on either side of the ball up to this point. This doesn’t bode well for the IDP opportunities and Nick Bolton. First, the low number of plays ran for the Bears since they cannot sustain drives as they are just averaging 60 plays per game so far this year. Then, you pair that with Nick Bolton’s usage of 96% in week 1 and then 79% in week 2! He was not coming off the field last year, and now all of a sudden we are seeing this, it makes me nervous about Bolton’s upside.

Additionally, the Chiefs’ offense should not struggle to move the ball against the Bears’ defense meaning even less time for the Bears to have the ball and run plays for Nick Bolton and the other Chiefs’ IDPs.

You can still start Bolton due to his ability to make plays around the ball and be efficient, but if you can pivot away this week or construct your lineup with a lower floor in mind, I highly recommend it.

START: Dax Hill, Cincinnati Bengals, DB52 (S47)

Dax Hill has had a nice start to this season for the Bengals. However, the Bengals haven’t had the best start to their season. And it has showed with their inability to keep opponents off the field. Hill has already played 99% of the snaps for a total of 147 snaps. Even with the volume, Hill has showed strong efficiency with 10.8% tackle efficiency. He has added an INT and a PBU as well. His sweet spot alignment of 40.8% is not elite, but it is enough to help give his floor in place for IDP production.

Now, enter the Los Angeles Rams who have surprised us with their performances this year and have gotten back some of that magic we saw during their title run in 2021 season. And in doing so, they are leading the NFL in plays ran with 156. This aligns with the Bengals performance this year and I expect more of the same for both the Rams’ offense and the Bengals defense. Even without the the strong efficiency, there is enough volume that Dax Hill should outplay DB52 by quite a bit this week.

SIT: Kyle Dugger, New England Patriots, DB12 (S12)

Kyle Dugger is one of my favorite IDP DBs this season, but you can only do so much in the DB role for IDP. And the opportunity for Dugger this week looks bleak facing off against the New York Jets. They have averaged just under 50 plays a game the first two weeks with Zach Wilson leading the offense. Even if Dugger is getting 100% of the snaps, 49 is not a great opportunity. Pair that with the offensive line of the Jets that is allowing plenty of pressures and sacks already, the chance the ball even gets close to Dugger is not looking great.

The Patriots defense also showed the willingness to play Dugger primarily deep, although, this was likely to help counter the deep routes of Tyreek Hill more than a desire to consistently play him there. He has played 61% either in the box, at DL, or in the slot, but even that ideal usage, might not be enough to see Dugger deliver a top 12 performance this week.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 16

Updated: December 22nd 2022

I hope just like this article, you and your fantasy team are moving on to week 16! But if not, you can come read and learn a bit about end of year and get a head start on players and things to watch for moving forward too! Regardless, I hope you and yours have a healthy and happy holidays!! Now let’s play some IDP fantasy football.
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show are the ECR from Fantasy Pros each week.

WEEK 15 RECAP
DL:
Start: Azeez Ojulari (0.5 sack, 2 solos, 2 assists, 2 QB hits. A solid game, easily overshadowed by Kayvon’s huge game)
Start: Kwity Paye (Sack, 5 solos, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits. Paye flashing a strong game.)

Sit: Jeffery Simmons (Sack, 4 solos, 2 assists, TFL, QB hit. Simmons’ ankle seemed fine and he delivered in a big way)


LB:

Start: Jack Sanborn (5 solos. He didn’t goose you, but could’ve been so much more if he didn’t get hurt early in the 3rd quarter)

Start: Zaire Franklin (6 solos, 4 assist, FF. Another strong game)

Sit: Devin Lloyd (7 solos, 2 assists. Lloyd looking the rookie LB for the rest of this season, at least)

 

DB:
Start: Andrew Adams (4 solos, 2 assists. For where he was ranked and probably available, not a terrible performance)

Start: Marcus Jones (4 solos, assist, PD, 25 return yards. He took 2 offensive snaps, no stats. Saw 100% of the IDP snaps though)

Sit: Jalen Thompson (3 solos, 6 assists. Strong delivery in the tackle game, a lot of assisted tackles though.)

 

START: Greg RousseauBuffalo Bills, DL27

Greg Rousseau has done a wonderful job as a pass-rusher this season and his PFF grade shows this with a very good 81.2 grade for the season. He also been a capable starter at times for our IDP rosters. This week against Chicago is shaping up to be another one of those weeks. In every game with at least 8 pass-rush snaps, Rousseau has posted a minimum of 3 pressures (per PFF). He has converted that into 8 sacks for a very respectable season so far. Enter the Bears who have an offensive line that is tied for 8th worst in pressures allowed (26%) and tied for 4th worst in sack conversion allowed (19%). This paired with Justin Fields tendency to hold on to the ball for a long time, he has the longest time to throw of any QB this season who has taken at least 100 drop backs, will allow for an athletic Edge player like Rousseau to find his way home for a big play. Rousseau is a strong DL2 play this week, with DL1 upside.

START: Jaelan PhillipsMiami Dolphins, DL47

Jaelan Phillips may sound familiar to you if you read this article every week. I liked him a few weeks ago, and I liked what he had for his playoff run as well. He had a strong game against the Bills this last week and I believe in him moving forward. Rousseau had a wonderful PFF pass-rush grade, but Phillips is just phenomenal. He has a season grade of 89.2! And his last 5 games highlight this especially. Over that stretch he is averaging 4.6 pressures, 1.0 sack, 1.2 QB hits, and 2.4 hurries per game. He clearly has the tools and the talent, welcome in the Packers for week 16. Now Green Bay boasts one of the better pressures allowed rate, tied for 4th best (22%), however, when they do allow pressures, they are more likely to turn into sacks, tied for 12th worst (17%). In a matchup that both teams need the win, I expect big plays and the effort to match from both sides and I see Phillips as high-end DL2 this week.

SIT: J.J. WattArizona Cardinals, DL29

J.J. Watt looked like vintage Watt in week 15, with 3 sacks! While we love the positive news for a former FFIDP legend (2013-2015 Watt was insane!), but I do not like what week 16 could bring for Watt and his FFIDP output. A matchup of two savvy vets trying to make the most out of their season in Watt versus Tampa Bay and Tom Brady. Tampa Bay and all the complaints about their offensive line, Brady has found a way to operate within it and try to make it work. And that way is with very quick passes as Brady has the second fastest time to throw out of all QBs that have taken at least 100 drop backs (2.33 seconds). Brady will probably see some pressure, but I would expect very limited pass-rush production for Watt this week. Tampa is middle of the back at 15th best pressure rate (23%) but are tied for 5th best for sack conversion rate (10%). J.J. is someone I would consider in the DL4 range, which would make in unplayable in most formats.

START: Joe ThomasChicago Bears, LB67

First of all, a huge shoutout to Jack Sanborn and the fun and amazing performances he gave to FFIDP and the Chicago Bears after the Roquan Smith trade. However, his season is officially over after being placed on injured reserve. With his injury, welcome in Joe Thomas. In his replacement of Sanborn, Joe Thomas gave produced 6 combined tackles, sack, TFL, QB hit and all in 43 snaps. I am not saying he will produce big-play upside this week, but at LB67, his tackle efficiency and production has strong potential as he looks like a full-time role replacement for Chicago, which has been very productive for the non-Mike LB role this year. Joe Thomas is a low-end LB3 this week.

START: Deion JonesCleveland Browns, LB40

Cleveland’s LB room has been an ambiguous mess for FFIDP for good portions of the year… and we once again, have some semblance of clarity. It only took injuries to almost every other LB first (Anthony Walker, Sione Takitaki, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Jacob Phillips to name a few). But now, we have Deion Jones, the man standing above the rubble. This really is a matter of volume for Jones at this point and he appears to have it all. 88% in week 14 but now last week, he was the only LB to see over 30 total snaps (out of their 63 total). That type of solitary volume is hard to find and makes him a strong LB3 this week in their matchup against the Saints.

SIT (fade): Jamin DavisWashington Commanders, LB32

Jamin Davis has done a solid job taking on the lead role since Cole Holcomb’s injury for the Commanders in week 7. And in the last 3 weeks he has looked like a better FFIDP lineup option as well racking up an average of 9.7 combined tackles in that span. However, at this point in the season, we do have the luxury of understanding what a matchup can mean to a positional group and as such, the San Francisco 49ers, are one of the worst matchups for a LB. If you want to take a look at some of the data, I strongly recommend checking out @moncal on Twitter. He does a wonderful job capturing this information and sharing it out there. For this week, the 49ers offer the worst expected LB performances over season average. This makes Davis a strong fade for me and I would consider starting him if you truly have “no other options” in that LB3/4 range.

START: Tariq WoolenSeattle Seahawks, DB34

Tariq Woolen has been an amazing story this year for what was supposed to be a rebuilding Seattle Seahawks. They yet again, find a 5th round corner, to come into the league and deliver from year 1. Now, what he can do for his career, we have to wait and see. But for week 16, against the Kansas City Chiefs, this is a good FFIDP matchup. The Chiefs are the 3rd highest passing team with 551 pass attempts, they have a QB in Mahomes that loves to make difficult throws, that lead to turnover worthy plays, which he has 15 of on the year (tied for 13th worst) and this has resulted in 11 interceptions (tied for 3rd worst). Woolen has already shown a penchant for play-making with his 6 INTs and 6 PDs. Woolen is high-end DB3 for me with DB2 upside.

START: Jason PinnockNew York Giants, DB48

Jason Pinnock has stepped with the injury to Xavier McKinney and coach Daboll has already confirmed that McKinney will not be back this week and is out against the Vikings. This gives him the full-time, albeit as the deep safety primarily for the Giants. However, the Vikings are one of the more pass-happy teams in the NFL and aren’t shy about it. Cousins is 4th on total pass attempts at 544 and I would expect more of the same this week. What is more important, is that Cousins leads the NFL in attempts (127) in the intermediate area of the field (10-19 yards downfield) which is a wonderful area to get that deep safety involved! Pinnock is a low-ceiling play this week, but has a strong floor for a full-time safety and should be closer to a high-end DB4 with DB3 upside.

SIT (fade): Donovan WilsonDallas Cowboys, DB10

Dallas has had a three-headed approach to safety most of this year with Donovan Wilson, Jayron Kearse, and Malik Hooker. This has led to some up and down usage at times, but when all are healthy, Wilson is generally seeing the lower snaps of the three. Along that note, Kearse and Wilson are generally taking on the “box” role but Kearse is doing it with greater frequency as well as more snaps in the slot too. With a very important game against division rival, the Eagles, you would expect a big performance from the defense. But I have reservations about Donovan Wilson as a DB1. It would take a setback for Jayron Kearse to not play to have this level of confidence. But Kearse did a routine of Limited Practice, Limited, Full Participant and played a full complement of snaps last week and is trending exactly the same this week. I have Wilson close to a DB3 this week.

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