Big 3 IDP Defensive Player Rankings & Contract Recommendations

Updated: August 9th 2021

Player Pos Rank Team Age DOB Contract Length Recommended Contract Per Year
Devin White LB001 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23.5 02/17/1998 4 $ 80,000,000 $20,000,000
Chase Young EDGE001 Washington Football Team 22.3 04/14/1999 4 $ 80,000,000 $20,000,000
Myles Garrett EDGE002 Cleveland Browns 25.6 12/29/1995 4 $ 80,000,000 $20,000,000
Roquan Smith LB002 Chicago Bears 24.4 04/08/1997 4 $ 80,000,000 $20,000,000
Darius Leonard LB003 Indianapolis Colts 26.1 07/27/1995 4 $ 80,000,000 $20,000,000
T.J. Watt EDGE003 Pittsburgh Steelers 26.8 10/11/1994 4 $ 80,000,000 $20,000,000
Jamal Adams S001 Seattle Seahawks 25.8 10/17/1995 4 $ 65,000,000 $ 16,250,000
Nick Bosa EDGE004 San Francisco 49ers 23.8 10/23/1997 4 $ 60,000,000 $ 15,000,000
Brian Burns EDGE005 Carolina Panthers 23.3 04/23/1998 4 $ 58,000,000 $ 14,500,000
Joey Bosa EDGE006 Los Angeles Chargers 26.1 07/11/1995 4 $ 56,000,000 $ 14,000,000
Danielle Hunter EDGE007 Minnesota Vikings 26.8 10/29/1994 4 $ 55,000,000 $ 13,750,000
Montez Sweat EDGE008 Washington Football Team 24.9 09/04/1996 4 $ 48,000,000 $ 12,000,000
Micah Parsons LB004 Dallas Cowboys 22.2 05/26/1999 4 $ 45,000,000 $ 11,250,000
Jeremy Chinn S002 Carolina Panthers 23.5 02/26/1998 4 $ 45,000,000 $ 11,250,000
Blake Martinez LB005 New York Giants 27.6 01/09/1994 4 $ 44,000,000 $ 11,000,000
Aaron Donald IDL001 Los Angeles Rams 30.2 05/23/1991 3 $ 35,000,000 $ 11,666,667
Patrick Queen LB006 Baltimore Ravens 22.0 08/13/1999 4 $ 39,000,000 $ 9,750,000
Budda Baker S003 Arizona Cardinals 25.6 01/10/1996 4 $ 38,000,000 $ 9,500,000
Jamin Davis LB007 Washington Football Team 22.7 12/12/1998 4 $ 38,000,000 $ 9,500,000
DeForest Buckner IDL002 San Francisco 49ers 27.4 3/17/1994 4 $ 38,000,000 $ 9,500,000
Kenneth Murray LB008 Los Angeles Chargers 22.7 11/16/1998 4 $ 38,000,000 $ 9,500,000
Zach Cunningham LB009 Houston Texans 26.7 12/12/1994 4 $ 38,000,000 $ 9,500,000
Josh Allen EDGE009 Jacksonville Jaguars 25.2 05/21/1996 4 $ 38,000,000 $ 9,500,000
Isaiah Simmons LB010 Arizona Cardinals 23.1 07/26/1998 4 $ 35,000,000 $ 8,750,000
Devin Bush LB011 Pittsburgh Steelers 23.1 07/18/1998 4 $ 32,000,000 $ 8,000,000
Tremaine Edmunds LB012 Buffalo Bills 23.3 05/02/1998 4 $ 32,000,000 $ 8,000,000
Deion Jones LB013 Atlanta Falcons 26.8 11/4/1994 4 $ 32,000,000 $ 8,000,000
Fred Warner LB014 San Francisco 49ers 24.7 11/19/1996 4 $ 32,000,000 $ 8,000,000
Jaelan Phillips EDGE010 Miami Dolphins 22.2 5/28/1999 4 $ 30,000,000 $ 7,500,000
Derwin James S004 Los Angeles Chargers 25.0 08/03/1996 4 $ 30,000,000 $ 7,500,000
Shaq Barrett EDGE011 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28.7 11/17/1992 3 $ 25,000,000 $ 8,333,333
Zadarius Smith EDGE012 Green Bay Packers 28.9 09/08/1992 3 $ 25,000,000 $ 8,333,333
Zaven Collins LB015 Arizona Cardinals 22.2 5/19/1999 4 $ 30,000,000 $ 7,500,000
Joe Schobert LB016 Jacksonville Jaguars 27.8 11/06/1993 2 $ 18,000,000 $ 9,000,000
Jaylon Smith LB017 Dallas Cowboys 26.2 06/14/1995 3 $ 21,000,000 $ 7,000,000
Eric Kendricks LB018 Minnesota Vikings 29.5 02/29/1992 3 $ 21,000,000 $ 7,000,000
Bobby Wagner LB019 Seattle Seahawks 31.1 06/27/1990 2 $ 18,000,000 $ 9,000,000
Jessie Bates III S005 Cincinnati Bengals 24.5 02/26/1997 4 $ 28,000,000 $ 7,000,000
Xavier Mckinney S006 New York Giants 23.0 8/8/1998 4 $ 28,000,000 $ 7,000,000
Lavonte David LB020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31.6 01/23/1990 2 $ 17,000,000 $ 8,500,000
Jayon Brown LB021 Tennessee Titans 26.5 02/26/1995 3 $ 21,000,000 $ 7,000,000
Bradley Chubb EDGE015 Denver Broncos 25.1 06/24/1996 4 $ 26,000,000 $ 6,500,000
Jordyn Brooks LB022 Seattle Seahawks 23.8 10/21/1997 4 $ 25,000,000 $ 6,250,000
Carl Lawson EDGE013 CIncinnati Bengals 26.1 06/29/1995 4 $ 24,000,000 $ 6,000,000
Richie Grant S007 Atlanta Falcons 23.8 11/9/1997 4 $ 24,000,000 $ 6,000,000
Quinnen Williams IDL003 New York Jets 23.6 12/21/1997 4 $ 24,000,000 $ 6,000,000
Kwity Paye EDGE014 Indianapolis Colts 22.7 11/19/1998 4 $ 22,000,000 $ 5,500,000
Khalil Mack EDGE016 Chicago Bears 30.5 02/22/1991 2 $ 16,000,000 $ 8,000,000
Yetur Gross-Matos EDGE017 Carolina Panthers 23.5 2/26/1998 4 $ 22,000,000 $ 5,500,000
Greg Rousseau EDGE018 Buffalo Bills 21.4 04/05/2000 4 $ 22,000,000 $ 5,500,000
Jayson Oweh EDGE019 Baltimore Ravens 22.7 12/15/1998 4 $ 22,000,000 $ 5,500,000
Haason Reddick EDGE020 Carolina Panthers 26.9 09/22/1994 2 $ 14,000,000 $ 7,000,000
John Johnson III S008 Cleveland Browns 25.7 12/19/1995 4 $ 24,000,000 $ 6,000,000
Antoine Winfield Jr. S009 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23.0 08/16/1998 4 $ 22,000,000 $ 5,500,000
Jeffery Simmons IDL006 Tennessee Titans 24.0 07/28/1997 4 $ 22,000,000 $ 5,500,000
Chris Jones IDL004 Kansas City Chiefs 27.1 07/03/1994 3 $ 18,000,000 $ 6,000,000
Leonard Williams IDL005 New York Giants 27.2 6/20/1994 3 $ 18,000,000 $ 6,000,000
Shaq Thompson LB023 Carolina Panthers 27.3 04/21/1994 3 $ 18,000,000 $ 6,000,000
Demarcus Lawrence EDGE021 Dallas Cowboys 29.4 04/02/1992 2 $ 12,000,000 $ 6,000,000
Jeremiah O Koramoah LB024 Cleveland Browns 21.8 11/04/1999 4 $ 22,000,000 $ 5,500,000
Khari Willis S010 Indianapolis Colts 25.3 05/07/1996 4 $ 21,000,000 $ 5,250,000
Jerome Baker LB025 Miami Dolphins 24.6 12/25/1996 3 $ 15,000,000 $ 5,000,000
Bobby Okereke LB026 Indianapolis Colts 25.0 07/29/1996 3 $ 15,000,000 $ 5,000,000
Myles Jack LB027 Jacksonville Jaguars 26.0 09/03/1995 3 $ 15,000,000 $ 5,000,000
Jabrill Peppers S011 New York Giants 25.9 10/04/1995 3 $ 15,000,000 $ 5,000,000
Vonn Bell S012 Cincinnati Bengals 26.7 12/12/1994 3 $ 15,000,000 $ 5,000,000
Marlon Humphrey CB001 Baltimore Ravens 25.1 07/08/1996 3 $ 15,000,000 $ 5,000,000
Justin Simmons S013 Denver Broncos 27.7 11/19/1993 3 $ 15,000,000 $ 5,000,000
Kevin Byard S014 Tennessee Titans 28.0 08/17/1993 3 $ 15,000,000 $ 5,000,000
Landon Collins S015 Washington Football Team 27.6 01/10/1994 3 $ 15,000,000 $ 5,000,000
Jordan Poyer S016 Buffalo Bills 30.3 04/25/1991 2 $ 13,000,000 $ 6,500,000
Foyesade Oluokun LB028 Atlanta Falcons 26.0 8/2/1995 3 $ 12,000,000 $ 4,000,000
Stephon Tuitt EDGE022 Pittsburgh Steelers 28.2 05/23/1993 2 $ 10,000,000 $ 5,000,000
Kyle Dugger S017 New England Patriots 25.4 03/22/1996 4 $ 16,000,000 $ 4,000,000
Kamren Curl S018 Washington Fball Team 22.4 03/31/1999 4 $ 16,000,000 $ 4,000,000
Romeo Okwara EDGE023 Detroit Lions 26.2 06/17/1995 3 $ 12,000,000 $ 4,000,000
Josh Sweat EDGE024 Philadelphia Eagles 24.4 03/29/1997 4 $ 16,000,000 $ 4,000,000
Maxx Crosby EDGE025 Las Vegas Raiders 24.0 8/22/1997 3 $ 12,000,000 $ 4,000,000
Azeez Ojulari EDGE026 New York Giants 21.2 06/19/2000 4 $ 15,000,000 $ 3,750,000
Eric Wilson LB029 Philadelphia Eagles 26.9 09/26/1994 2 $ 8,000,000 $ 4,000,000
Chandler Jones EDGE027 Arizona Cardinals 31.5 02/27/1990 2 $ 12,000,000 $ 6,000,000
JJ Watt EDGE028 Arizona Cardinals 32.4 03/22/1989 1 $ 6,000,000 $ 6,000,000
Sam Hubbard EDGE029 Cincinnati Bengals 26.1 06/29/1995 4 $ 15,000,000 $ 3,750,000
Keanu Neal S019 Dallas Cowboys 26.1 07/26/1995 3 $ 11,000,000 $ 3,666,667
Kenny Moore II CB002 Indianapolis Colts 26.0 08/23/1995 3 $ 11,000,000 $ 3,666,667
Rashan Gary EDGE030 Green Bay Packers 23.7 12/03/1997 4 $ 14,000,000 $ 3,500,000
Willie Gay LB030 Kansas City Chiefs 23.5 02/15/1998 4 $ 14,000,000 $ 3,500,000
L’Jarius Sneed CB003 Kansas City Chiefs 24.6 01/21/1997 3 $ 10,000,000 $ 3,333,333
Alex Highsmith EDGE031 Pittsburgh Steelers 24.0 08/07/1997 4 $ 13,000,000 $ 3,250,000
K’Lavon Chaisson EDGE033 Jacksonville Jaguars 22.1 7/25/1999 4 $ 13,000,000 $ 3,250,000
Yannick Ngakoue EDGE032 Las Vegas Raiders 26.4 03/31/1995 3 $ 10,000,000 $ 3,333,333
Harold Landry EDGE034 Tennessee Titans 25.2 06/05/1996 3 $ 10,000,000 $ 3,333,333
Nick Bolton LB031 Kansas City Chiefs 21.4 03/10/2000 4 $ 12,000,000 $ 3,000,000
Ernest Jones LB032 Los Angeles Rams 21.7 11/22/1999 4 $ 12,000,000 $ 3,000,000
Logan Wilson LB037 Cincinnati Bengals 25.1 07/08/1996 4 $ 12,000,000 $ 3,000,000
Baron Browning LB034 Denver Broncos 22.5 02/19/1999 4 $ 12,000,000 $ 3,000,000
Ashtyn Davis S022 New York Jets 24.8 10/10/1996 4 $ 12,000,000 $ 3,000,000
Matt Milano LB033 Buffalo Bills 27.1 07/28/1994 3 $ 10,000,000 $ 3,333,333
Demario Davis LB035 New Orleans Saints 32.6 01/11/1989 2 $ 12,000,000 $ 6,000,000
Dre Greenlaw LB036 San Francisco 49ers 23.8 10/21/1997 3 $ 10,000,000 $ 3,333,333
Pete Werner LB038 New Orleans Saints 22.2 06/05/1999 4 $ 11,000,000 $ 2,750,000
Jacob Phillips LB039 Cleveland Browns 22.4 04/01/1999 4 $ 11,000,000 $ 2,750,000
More Analysis by Stephen Wendell

IDPs 101: How to Build Your 2020 DL Core

Updated: April 23rd 2020

He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp posts – for support rather than for illumination.
Andrew Lang, Scottish Novelist

Its Draft Week folks!!!  Talk about couldn’t have come any sooner too.  My fantasy circles were particularly chatty this weekend.  It got me thinking – aside from how grateful I was to have a temporary distraction from the daily stresses of the Coronavirus, I couldn’t help but wonder how we all got here.  I’m speaking in regards to my friends becoming the Dynasty nuts they are today.  It really was not too long ago I was drafting with owners who would try their best to select all Bucs’ players, or they based their decisions on whether or not someone played in the SEC.  Of course, now it seems like every owner keeps a finger on the pulse of the league year round.  We’ve got guys arguing about snap counts and average completed air yards in mid-April.  It’s beautiful!

Throughout this evolution, I have noticed a trend amongst our fantasy community as a whole.  We are all perfectly capable of taking a stance on a player & backing it up with numbers.  Whereas, we Saints’ homers used to proclaim Cam Jordan the best DE in the league simply out of Who Dat loyalty, we now back up our boasts with data (i.e., Jordan’s 40 sacks the last 3 seasons are the most of any DE in that time frame).  However, the problem is most owners are only interested in pursuing the numbers when it’s time to argue about their favorite players or the biggest names.  There is so much unrealized insight out there.  My hope is that this article can act as a springboard for reshaping your relationship with statistics, and ultimately regaining the edge you had back when your competitors were drafting Kevin Faulk in the 4th round because he went to their high school.

Take a look at some of these names:

Landon Collins – recorded 5 Ints and 4 Sacks in 2016.  He has since logged 2 Ints and 1 sack in 42 games.

Geno Atkins – 9+ sacks in 4 straight seasons. He finished with half that number last year.

J.J. Watt – only managed 4 sacks in the 8 games he played in 2019

Khalil Mack – failed to reach double digit sacks for the 1st time in 5 years.

We see this kind of stuff every season.  Big names will eventually let you down at every position, and IDPs are especially volatile.  I understand the frustration.  You signed the best IDPs in the game and it didn’t work out.  What more could you possibly do?

For starters, you must step off that carousel.  Chasing today’s biggest names will rarely yield tomorrow’s best results.  I challenge you all to try this instead.  Forget the names altogether and focus on the odds.  Therein lies my goal.  To provide RSO readers with actionable odds they can use in building their Defensive Line core this offseason.

I approached this challenge from 3 different perspectives.  The 1st – Based off the last 10 years, what are the odds of success for DL rookies in Years 1, 2 and 3?

I categorized these rookies into 3 subgroups: Top 10 Selections, 1st Rounders 11-32, and 2nd Rounders.  I determined success by the scale with which most of my RSO leagues score IDP production (1 point per Tkl, 0.5 per Assist, 2.5 points per Half-Sack, 7 points per FF or FR), along with an arbitrary target of 80 points.  Here’s what I found.

Top 10 Picks 11-32 2nd Round
Year 1 40.0% 13.2% 7.7%
Year 2 46.7% 24.5% 14.6%
Year 3 40.0% 33.3% 17.0%
1 of 3+ 86.7% 42.2% 29.8%
2 of 3+ 66.7% 24.4% 10.6%
3 of 3 20.0% 8.9% 0.0%
0 of 3 33.3% 60.0% 63.8%

The Top 10 consist of 20 players: Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Tyson Alualu, Marcell Dareus, Dion Jordan, Ezekiel Ansah, Barkevious Mingo, Jadeveon Clowney, Dante Fowler, Leonard Williams, Joey Bosa, DeForest Buckner, Myles Garrett, Solomon Thomas, and then 2019’s Draft Class – Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Clelin Ferrell, Josh Allen and Ed Oliver – whom only qualify for Year 1 figures.  Of the 15 players that came before them, only Ezekiel Ansah, Joey Bosa and Myles Garrett (more on these 2 later) have attained our definition of fantasy relevance all 3 years.

The sample size for Picks 11-32 (53) and 2nd Rounders (52) are much bigger.  As you can see, the odds increase with each season.  Also, both subgroups experience a steep descent from its antecedent.  This table’s 2 biggest takeaways:  At 40%, the Top 10 picks are 3 times more likely to be relevant their rookie season than the 1st Rounders 11-32 are.  The same holds true with the 2 out of 3 or greater successful seasons stat.  The Top 10’s 66.7% is also nearly 3 times the success rate of the remainging 1st Rounders.  This is useful information, but I was not satisfied with stopping here.  This brings us to the 2nd method of inquisition.

Let’s simplify things.  The DL position is predicated on getting to the QB right?  Therefore, Sacks are a powerful metric for which we can base our research.  I gathered all the DEs/DTs that recorded 7.5+ sacks in the last 10 seasons.  I then documented which year in the player’s career the feat was achieved.  Below is an example from 2010.

Name Year 
John Abraham 11
Jason Babin 7
Charles Johnson 4
Justin Tuck 6
Osi Umenyiora 8
Jared Allen 7
Chris Clemons 7
Robert Mathis 8
James Hall 11
Trent Cole 6
Dwight Freeney 9
Ndamukong Suh 1
Carlos Dunlap 1
Raheem Brock 9
Cliff Avril 3
Chris Long 3
Justin Smith 10
Mario Williams 5
Ray Edwards 5
Israel Idonije 7
Julius Peppers 9

Here are the results tallied up from seasons 2010-2019.

Year of Career Total
1 13
2 20
3 30
4 31
5 32
6 21
7 22
8 21
9 20
10 14
11 10
12 2
13 1

Only 13 players reached the 7.5 benchmark in year 1, 3 of which occured in 2019 (Josh Allen, Nick Bosa, and Maxx Crosby).  In Year 2 we observed a rate similar to that of Years 6-9.  Then we reach our sweet spot in Years 3-5.  I was pleaseantly surprised with how clean of a trend we wound up with here.  It energized me.  I had to know what sort of results would emerge from combining the previous 2 research methods.

The 3rd Perspective – How did each player on the list above fare sackwise in Years 1, 2 and 3?  With 92 qualifying Defensive Lineman, we had a total of 50 1st/2nd Rounders.  Here are the players of note:

3 of 3
Top 10
3 of 3
Picks 11-32
2 of 3
Top 10
2 of 3
Picks 11-32
2 of 3
2nd Round
Ezekial Ansah Dwight Freeny Myles Garrett Cam Jordan Osi Umenyiora
Aaron Donald Joey Bosa Robert Quinn Calais Campbell
Khalil Mack J.J. Watt Frank Clark
Andre Carter Jason Pierre-Paul Jabaal Sheard
Julius Peppers John Abraham
Mario Williams
Ndamukong Suh

 

 Total 3 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 3 0 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 3
Top 10 16 1 7 6 2 50.0% 87.5%
Picks
11-32
21 2 5 7 7 33.3% 66.7%
2nd Round 13 0 4 5 4 30.8% 69.2%

Our sample size decreased significantly here, but we are still able to recognize the Top 10 picks’ irrefutable edge.  So what does it all mean Basil?

Let’s assume this is your league’s first year, and you are operating with a 30 man roster that starts 2 DL.  In this scenario, I would want to roll with 4 guys.

I would start by making an aggressive push to lock up a Top 10 selection in the Rookie Draft, which this year figures to be Washington’s Chase Young.  If I have to move some picks around to lock him up, so be it.  I’m then targeting players entering Years 3, 4, 5 in the Auction since that range has the best odds.  Myles Garrett or Joey Bosa are Priority 1, and  I am willing to spend as much as 10 mil a year for one of them.

After that we have a couple of solid options at DT in Chris Jones and DeForest Buckner.  DTs often enjoy discounts since sacks are harder to come by at that position, and this pair endured a combined 11 sack dropoff in 2019.  I would want to add one of them or Yannick Ngakoue, who is severly underated.  Fun fact.  Yannick is 1 of 2 players from our list, not drafted in the 1st 2 Rounds who recorded 7.5+ sacks in all 3 of his first seasons.  The other was Jared Allen.

Finally, I am targeting a potential breakout player that has shown glimpses and will be acquired on the cheap.  Guys like Sam Hubbard, Jonathan Allen, Derek Barnett, Shaq Lawson, Matt Ioannidis, and Marcus Davenport all fit the bill.

Finding success in RSO leagues is all about planning and execution.  Although I will respect and even fear your trio of Cam Jordan, Aaron Donald and Melvin Ingram some weeks, I know the odds are in my favor to finish the year with a top DL core.  I challenge you to take a similar apporach this season.

More Analysis by Grant Viviano

IDP Rankings From @ThePNPShow

Updated: August 5th 2019

Our friends from @ThePNPShow have provided some IDP rankings for all of our IDP league GMs. See below and make sure to give them a follow:

More Analysis by Stephen Wendell