IDP Start/Sit: Week 9

Updated: November 3rd 2022

Here we are going into week 9 after the trade deadline and with some players on new team, let’s take a look at some of those streamers or players who could be joining your team this week! Additionally, week 8 was a doozy for last week’s start/sit with players being too hurt to play, others as a healthy scratch, and even an ejection!

WEEK 8 RECAP
DL:
Start: Kayvon Thibodeaux (1 QB Hit. Saw lots of snaps, just didn’t produce)
Start: Rasheem Green (1 solo, Titans only had 14 drop backs all game!)

Sit: Chandler Jones (1 solo)


LB:

Start: Quay Walker (4 solos, 1 assist, FF. On 15 snaps! If not for the ejection, this was looking like a top 10 week, but at least he didn’t kill your week)

Start: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Inactive Monday Night)

Sit: Tae Crowder (2 solos, 34% of snaps. Jaylon Smith looks like the new LB1 for NYG)

 

DB:
Start: Adrian Amos (4 solos, 1 assist. Had 3 more solos negated due to penalties. A borderline performance)

Start: Eric Rowe (Healthy scratch! Big miss and stay away for the rest of the season!)

Sit: Kyle Dugger (Ankle injury ended up keeping him out of the game)

 

START: Travon Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars, DL28

Travon Walker has been playing an elite level of snaps for a DL position, 58 snaps / game. He has posted solid tackle floor numbers this year as well with 4+ tackles in 6 of 8 weeks. His pass rush pressure rate is not ideal at just above 6%, but this week he has a favorable matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders who have allowed a 26% pass rush pressure rate and a 13% sack conversion rate. He has also made a couple of plays and not looked lost when in coverage, which does give him some additional big play upside (he already has 1 INT and 2 PDs as well). Walker may not be delivering FULL number one overall numbers quite yet in the NFL, but he has enough to be a DL2 this week for our IDP lineups.

START: Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL24

Gregory Rousseau has looked good on this Bills top defense and he has a strong defensive PFF and pass rush grade (81.9 and 83.6 respectively). The biggest problem (for IDP) is that Gregory does not get ideal snap count numbers to support overall IDP production. He is seeing just under 35 snaps / game which is good, but not where we’d like to see it. However, with the limited work, we have still seen 5 sacks already, consistent pressures, and the ability to make other plays too (2 PDs this season and an INT on self deflected pass last year). This ability with a favorable matchup against the New York Jets who have allowed a high 26% pressure rate, but a lower 10% sack conversion rate. Rousseau has the ability to take advantage of the pressures allowed and convert them into a sack (or two?) this week.

SIT: Rasheem Green, Houston Texans, DL29

Rasheem Green was a start for us last week and the process still seems sounds for him. He is still a viable place in most other weeks, however, his matchup this week against the Philadelphia Eagles is one of the worst matchups for any defensive lineman as the Eagles have one of the strongest overall offensive lines. They have the lowest pressure rate allowed in the league at 19% and 3rd best sack conversion rate at 8%. Green is someone to keep on your bench but look to another possible start for this week.

START: Nicholas Morrow, Chicago Bears, LB31

Mr. Morrow is in a situation where he was already seeing 100% snaps but was doing that with a very talented producer in Roquan Smith. With Roquan Smith moving on to the Baltimore Ravens Morrow is the guy in the middle of the defense and they should still be taking plenty of snaps as one of the lower tier defense this year. 82 tackles and 3 sacks made by Smith are now available for the rest of that Bears defense. Now, realistically, Morrow will not absorb most of the this, but even a significant portion will move Morrow up into the a consistent LB2 range week-to-week. If Morrow is not available, Jack Sanborn is a deeper look.

START: David Long Jr., Tennessee Titans, LB20

David Long Jr. continues to be the linebacker you want from the Titans as he delivers top-tier numbers week in and week out. Of the 7 games he’s played this year, he’s had at least 8 tackles in 5 of them. He’s also contributed 2 INTs and 4 PDs. He has no serious competition for snaps and with this level of production, he should be a top 15 LB or better moving forward. This level of production combined with his high quality of play (his PFF defensive grade of 74.7 is 13th among LBs) bodes well for his chances of getting a new deal from the Titans, which makes him a more stable asset in dynasty leagues. No matter what format you play, though, he’s a top option.

SIT: Isaiah Simmons, Arizona Cardinals, LB35

Isaiah Simmons went from playing over 90% of the snap last season to being sub-70% snap count this season. This kind of usage for a player that is designated as an LB but plays a large amount of slot corner (47% of total snaps) is less than ideal. Pair that with limited IDP production of just over 4 tackles / game. He has found ways to make some splash plays at least to make him relevant in some weeks with 1 INT (returned for TD), 1 sack, 2 FFs, and a FR. Isaiah has looked suspect in run defense at best but has shown some capability in pass coverage, this does not bode well for his usage as a LB. His boom weeks are only going to be something you can get by playing him week in and and week out, which means you will experience the down weeks too. Sad to think about a top 20 NFL draft pick be so under-utilized, but this might just be the Isaiah Simmons experience going forward.

 

START: Andre Cisco, Jacksonville Jaguars, DB45

Andre Cisco has come into his 2nd year and delivered some strong performance so far this year. He is playing 99% of the snaps so far this season and he is doing this primarily from a deep safety role, which tends to have less consistency but some find a way to be very relevant for IDP. So far this year, Cisco has been able to be a viable starter. His production of 4.75 tackles / game and 2 INTs on the year have given him a baseline that keeps him from killing you weekly. This week he has a matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders, they are top half of the league in intermediate and deep throws and Carr and Carr is top 10 in turnover worthy plays on those deep throws and with Cisco playing primarily deep, this is a matchup that should have some big-play upside for Cisco and a nice floor to balance it out.

START: Xavier Woods, Carolina Panthers, DB41

Xavier Woods had the distinction of being one of the very few defenders to have played 100% of all their snaps last season (1,208 total) and so far this year, he has played a strong 99% of the snaps this season. Xavier has played a strong number of snaps in the “IDP Sweet Spot” with a 51% total there. His production hasn’t matched the injured Jeremy Chinn’s production in years past while Chinn has been injured, but the process is sound and with a matchup against the Bengals this week who have feed Mixon the ball but have struggled to produce bigger plays with him, those in the sweet spot should be able to capitalize on this matchup this week and Woods should be one of those benefiting.

SIT: Jessie Bates III, Cincinnati Bengals, DB26

On the flip side of that IDP matchup, we have Jessie Bates III. Bates has been an IDP stalwart since coming into the league in 2018 and he has averaged 6.5 tackles per / game over that 4-year span, which is quite impressive in it’s right for any safety, but paired with the fact that he has consistently played as a deep safety, even better! However, this season he is averaging 4.5 tackles / game, a full two less per game! Panthers offense has looked revitalized (somehow?) ever since moving on from CMC and Matt Rhule, but the Falcons are not exactly a tough matchup and I am willing to give them one game due to the shakeup against the Bucs. However, there is a reason the QBs leading this team have not been highly sought after by others. Halloween has past and the Panthers offense will turn back into the pumpkin again. With a lower tier of production overall this year, the matchup against Carolina, it is time to find a different option for that DB2/3 role in your lineup.

More Analysis by Jake

IDP Sit/Start: Week 1

Updated: September 16th 2022

Welcome to my IDP Sit/Start Article for the 2022 NFL season. This article aims to help you identify those truly start-worthy players who might be more on the fringe of the 2nd or 3rd or even 4th tier of the position groups (based on FantasyPros weekly rankings) but have the right situation to be a startable asset for each given week. The layout of this series will focus on DL, LB, and DB position groups, however, I will try to get some nuggets in there for those “True Position” leagues that get down with DT and CB requirements! Additionally, where I can find the long-term value, we will also call that out to help you with some of that season-long planning.

Let’s get to it now that you know what I am trying to do!

START: Danielle Hunter, Minnesota Vikings, DL19

Danielle Hunter has that injury-prone label hanging over his head after back-to-back years of lost seasons (pectoral muscle in 2021, neck in 2020). This is scaring people off from what I strongly believe Danielle Hunter to be, and that is at tier 1 DL for IDP fantasy football. He meets the prerequisites of having pass rush win rates and pressures per game at elite levels when on the field. Secondly, throughout his career he has consistently seen around 80% of the defensive snaps each game and season and nothing has shown us that they are planning to bring that number down. Combine those points with the fact that Hunter is finally paired with another strong pass-rushing partner in offseason signing, Za’Darius Smith, Hunter has a path for success that should make him an every-week starter with top 8 DL upside for the entire season.

SIT: Sam Hubbard, Cincinnati Bengals, DL16

Sam Hubbard had a career year last season, in terms of sacks with 9 (tied career best), tackles at 62 (tied 2nd best), TFLs at 12 (career high), and QB hits with 17 (career high). These are strong numbers for where Hubbard was drafted last year and his perceived value. However, he did this on his highest snap total ever as well. His overall efficiency saw a drop but he delivered on volume. I am sure this is confusing at first because you are asking yourself, “Doesn’t Jake always say to chase volume for IDP?” And you would be right in every case. Volume is the first key to success for an IDP fantasy asset. The problem is, that volume came in what seemed more of a necessity than a desire. Hubbard and Hendrickson saw the vast majority of snaps as Joseph Ossai went down early last season. Ossai was an early round 3 pick (69th overall) and in the preseason, the Bengals were clearly showing signs of him being a key contributor. Once he went down, the Bengals didn’t have the talent or depth to replace that and just rode Hubbard and Hendrickson. With a full season to recover and prepare, Ossai will see an increased role which means a reduced snap count for Hubbard and Hendrickson. This means if you are looking for that high-end DL2 value, you are hoping he improves efficiency which is the less likely outcome.

START: Isaiah Simmons, Arizona Cardinals, LB26

Isaiah Simmons has had an interesting path to his current situation as it exists today. He was a top 10 draft pick (8th overall, 2020) but found himself on the wrong end of the snap counts (376, 34%) and given praise coming into the season and the increased utilization in other spots on the field, Simmons is looking like the key piece of this defense that he was (presumably) drafted to be. He spent time working with the safeties this offseason and he was recently named the defensive play-caller (given the green dot) for week 1. This aligns with his increased usage last season (1,005 and 94%) and the departure of other key defensive pieces in Jordan Hicks and Chandler Jones.

Right, wrong, or indifferent on how we got to this point, but we are here, and that place is “Success-town”, population Isaiah Simmons. I am sure there are plenty of people who held on tight to Simmons and always had the belief. Others though were most likely scared off from the low utilization, the lack of responsibility given, and even offseason talks that Jalen Thompson (Cardinals’ safety) would be the defensive play-caller this year. To those people I say, now is the time to get Simmons into your starting lineups! His talent, utilization, and opportunities are going to meet in a perfect storm, giving you a top end LB play this week and probably most of this season.

SIT: Anthony Walker Jr., Cleveland Browns, LB27

Going back-to-back in the FantasyPros rankings after Simmons is Anthony Walker Jr., and even though it is only one spot behind him, I would move Anthony Walker even further down that list. The primary reason for this? He is not even the best LB on his team… he might not even be in the top 2 for some people, and that is the case for me. I have him behind Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Jacob Phillips as LB3. This LB room ambiguity was not well-known in Cleveland due to other conversations in Cleveland (starting QB anyone?). There has been a some waffling on the green dot wearer for week 1 and for the season.

With so many things in the way of Walker succeeding and NFL defenses running almost no 3 LB sets to try and “guarantee” that Walker gets the snaps needed to be relevant, I am not rolling the dice on Walker of all people in that LB room. For me, it is JOK or pass. And I would rather pursue other 3-down LBs on other teams that give a better upside overall.

START: Kyler Gordon, Chicago Bears, Unranked

I am getting super deep on this one, but am a big believer in the slot role in Matt Eberflus led defenses. Kenny Moore has shown with the physical toolsets, the right coaching, and the opportunity a cornerback can be relevant. With Matt Eberflus taking over in Chicago, Kyler’s high draft capital and strong RAS, and him taking the lead on the slot role, all things are pointing up for Kyler Gordon!

Kyler Gordon to me is a player that will see the valuable snaps on the field as he was announced as the starter in the slot position and has taken most of his snaps there in the last two preseason games. The presumed microcosm of all of this, his first snap from the slot starting in preseason week 2, Eberflus blitze Gordon from the slot. In my opinion, that is just the beginning for him. With him taking the bulk (if not all) of his snaps so close to the ball and line of scrimmage, he has what we look for in DBs even but moreso for those leagues that require CBs. Also, historically rookie cornerbacks tend to see a strong number of targets against them that keep the floor and value safe for Kyler as well. He is basically free at this point and I am picking up all the shares of Kyler everywhere I can.

SIT (Fade or Trade): Jeremy Chinn, Carolina Panthers, DB5

So this is tough one to treat as a true “sit”. If you spent the required draft capital to require Chinn, it may be hard to actual have Chinn on your bench come week 1 this season. However, let’s just look at what we can probably more realistically do with Chinn, and that is trade him for a “tier down” at DB and maybe something more in another player or draft capital. But why would you get rid of someone from your roster that is a consensus top 5 DB (redraft and dynasty)?

It breaks down to two key components and one consideration. The first being the fact that Chinn has thrived almost exclusively on his ability to rack up tackles while taking the bulk of his snaps in the “Sweet Spot” (Box, Slot, DL) and his production comes heavily from his tackle production. He has not show big-play tendencies from his first two seasons combined:

  • 2 sacks
  • 2 interceptions
  • 3 fumbles (2 forced, 1 recovered)
  • 10 passes defensed
  • 8 TFLs
  • 10 QB hits

And this preseason he has taken 8 snaps in the “Sweet Spot” and 23 at free safety with new teammate, Xavier Woods, taking the bulk of those valuable snaps while they were both on the field. Knowing the usage looking like this and his past success heavily predicated on tackles (which are more easily achieved from the “Sweet Spot”), getting out on Jeremy Chinn now would be the best chance to maximize his value before it starts to potentially shift. Is this to say that if Chinn’s positional play shifts to a deep safety role he can’t produce? No, we have seen others do this; Justin Simmons and Minkah Fitzpatrick are great examples, but also tend to be the outliers. Chinn is good, but his value might be at his highest it will ever be right now, so now is the time to sell!

More Analysis by Jake

2020 Rookie Rankings Explained: Part II

Updated: May 10th 2020

This was my fourth year creating the rookie rankings for Reality Sports and it was as rewarding as ever in 2020. I look forward to the rankings each year because it’s such a unique experience and I’m grateful to have the opportunity to help inform literally every single RSO rookie draft. Since my rookie rankings can have a large impact on roster composition, I shy away from “hot taeks” and am more risk-averse than I might be in my own personal rookie drafting. I view the rookies through the lens of an RSO league and how a 3- or 4-year rookie contract can change the value of a player compared to dynasty formats. In order to create rankings that are representative for the majority of RSO leagues, I made a few assumptions on rosters and scoring (i.e. 1QB, offense scores more than defense and IDP scoring heavy on tackles/sacks). Each year there are a few themes and surprises that emerge as I’m ranking and over two articles I will share those with you. First up were my notes about this historically deep wide receiver class. Today I’m sharing my thoughts on the rest of the roster.

Click here to view the 2020 Reality Sports rookie rankings, compiled by Robert F. Cowper

Love Hurts?

My quarterback rankings started so simply. Joe Burrow first, no brainer. Tua second and Herbert third, less certain but I was confident. Then I ran into the roadblock that was Jordan Love vs Jalen Hurts. After much consideration, I put Hurts above Love despite the draft capital the Packers spent on Love. My thinking is this: I believe Hurts is more likely to return value on an RSO rookie contract than Love. We don’t know how much longer Aaron Rodgers will be the starter in Green Bay but if it’s closer to four years than one year, you may waste your pick on Love. We also know that Love’s performance and efficiency declined in 2019, so while we love his physical tools we aren’t sure about his consistency. Conversely, in 2019 Hurts showed us that he can adapt to a new system and a new coaching staff and flourish. We saw a side of Hurts that we never saw at Alabama and that gives me hope that he can stick as a passer at the NFL level. Eagles starter Carson Wentz has suffered a number of multi-game injuries throughout his college and pro career so it’s not unreasonable to think that Hurts may get an early chance to prove himself. We may also see Hurts get some Taysom Hill-like touches so he could have utility in 2QB leagues when you’re hit hard by injury or bye weeks. Hurts is a leader and a winner so I’ll take my chances with him over Love.

RBBC

I, like many draft fans, was surprised to see Clyde Edwards-Helaire be the first running back off the board to Kansas City. For the longest time, the consensus RB1 in this class was D’Andre Swift from Georgia. Jonathan Taylor came on strong after another 2,000+ yard season and a good combine performance, bumping Swift from the top spot in some rankings, including mine. CEH going in front of both Swift and Taylor caused me to reevaluate. I decided to keep Taylor at RB1, moved Edwards-Helaire up to RB2 and dropped Swift to RB3. Taylor and Swift will both see some early competition for touches from Marlon Mack and Kerryon Johnson respectively. I figure Johnson is likely to stick around longer than Mack so Taylor is more likely to be the unquestioned starter in 2021. Some have compared it to Nick Chubb competing with Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson for touches in Cleveland in 2018 but becoming the guy the following year with great results. Edwards-Helaire will have the biggest opportunity in 2020 but I hesitate to catapult somebody to RB1 who I did not even consider for the spot two months ago. During his seven seasons in Kansas City, Andy Reid has had five different running backs lead the team in rushing yards. There’s no doubt that CEH will have value in 2020 but I think that Taylor has a better shot at having value over the duration of his rookie deal.

Light End

This year’s tight end class was weaker than the previous three so it wasn’t a surprise that none went in the first round. What did surprise me though was just how hard they were to rank. By virtue of his draft capital and the fact that he should have no problem getting on the field early for the Bears, Cole Kmet was my TE1. Two of the next three off the board went to the Patriots which complicates rankings a bit (I slid Dalton Keene down as I expect him to serve as a blocker more so than as a receiver). As far as how Josiah Deguara (Packers), Devin Asiasi (Patriots) and Adam Trautman (Browns) end the season, your guess is as good as mine. I clumped them together in the mid 40s to hedge my rankings. One guy to keep an eye on is Albert Okwuegbunam in Denver. He has been reunited with his college quarterback Drew Lock and was the presumed TE1 back when they teamed up back in 2017-18. Chances are that only one tight end will be drafted in your rookie draft so I would wait on these guys to see how training camp and the offseason shakes out and target any preseason standouts in free agency.

Frequent Flyers

One of my favorite thought exercises each year is trying to identify the UDFAs who have the best chance at fantasy relevance. It’s impossible to predict injuries but we can study team depth charts to see where the road to relevance is shortest. I don’t recommend you draft any of these players in your rookie draft but monitor them during the preseason and pounce on any who find themselves an injury away from a sizable role.

  • Michael Warren, RB, Eagles (Rank: 68): Behind starter Miles Sanders, the Eagles have two previous practice squad poaches as their running back depth. Neither Boston Scott nor Elijah Holyfield inspire confidence if Sanders were to go down. I think Michael Warren from Cincinnati would be a reliable fill-in if needed. Over the last two seasons, Warren amassed nearly 3,000 yards from scrimmage and 36 scores in the competitive AAC. In five games against Power 5 opponents during that span he rushed 112 times for 520 yards and 6 TDs. I was surprised to see him go undrafted.
  • JJ Taylor, RB, Patriots (Rank: 71): Taylor measured smaller (5050/185) and ran slower (4.61) than I expected at the combine which definitely hurt his chances of being drafted as a gadget player. Would anybody be surprised if a 5’5″ undrafted free agent running back ended up scoring two touchdowns in a game for the Patriots this season?
  • Austin Mack, WR, Giants (Rank: 116): The bad news: Mack did not test particularly well and was often buried on the Buckeyes depth chart. The good news: the Giants receiving depth chart is littered with other UDFAs and waiver cast-offs. Somebody will need to be the fourth receiver and maybe it can be Mack who I always wanted to see get more targets at OSU.
  • James Robinson, RB, Jaguars (Rank: 117): The Jags running back depth chart is busy behind Leonard Fournette but there always seem to be rumors about him being traded. Whether by injury or trade, if running back touches were to open up in Jacksonville it’s possible that FCS star James Robinson (1,917 yards and 18 TDs last season) could get into the rotation.

Chase-ing the Quarterback

Sacks or tackles? The age-old question when it comes to making IDP rankings. The IDP leagues I play in tend to favor sacks over tackles so I typically value a rush end or outside linebacker over an off-ball tackling machine. So, it should come as no surprise that DE Chase Young is my DE1 and my first ranked IDP player. Most IDP leagues still weight offensive stats more than defensive so I slot Young into my 15th slot overall, making him a mid-2nd rounder. My next decision was on do-everything LB/S Isaiah Simmons or seek and destroy LB K’Lavon Chaisson. I went with Simmons because I have him listed as a LB and that’s almost unfair with his coverage ability. Simmons may never come off the field if he’s utilized to his full potential which means he’ll accrue tackles, sacks, interceptions and passes defended. Chaisson will join fellow new faces in free agent Joe Schobert and fourth rounder Shaquille Quarterman. Chaisson, who was drafted largely on potential and one season of production, will likely start as a pass rush specialist as he rounds out his game.

 

Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
  • NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper