The Watch List: 2018 SEC Preview
Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players, storylines and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. Check back throughout the Summer for previews on each conference and my preseason predictions. During the regular season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year.
Storylines to Watch
- Heisman Favorite: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama. Get used to hearing Tua’s name because you are going to hear it a lot. He became a household name when he replaced Jalen Hurts at halftime in the national championship and led Alabama to victory against Georgia. Tagovailoa won’t be the running threat that Hurts was but he’ll add enough to keep defenses honest. Picking a quarterback from a championship favorite with instant name recognition is a safe Heisman bet to make, even if he’s just a sophomore.
- Darkhorse Heisman Candidate: Jordan Ta’amu, QB, Ole Miss. The Rebels will struggle as they are still dealing with the fallout from the recent recruiting scandal but I have a feeling that JUCO transfer quarterback Jordan Ta’amu will impress this year. College football fantasy players are bullish on his potential which makes me think he could sneak into the Heisman conversation with big passing and rushing numbers. Ta’amu has the luxury of throwing to the best receiving corps in the country which will make him look good on a regular basis; the team is also returning four starting offensive linemen which should keep him upright.
- Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri. Lock led the NCAA in TDs last season (44) and threw for nearly 4,000 yards. He loses his offensive coordinator this year but the Tigers will still put up points. Lock will top the charts of most conference passing stats.
- Defensive Player of the Year: Devin White, LB, LSU. White was a stat-stuffing force last season. He led the conference in tackles per game (10.2; 133 overall). He also added 14.0 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. Since Alabama has much turnover on their defense, White should be able to steal the spotlight on defense in the SEC.
- Newcomer of the Year: Demetris Robertson, WR, Georgia. Robertson is transferring in from Cal and was granted immediate eligibility so he will see the field in 2018. As a true freshman in 2016, Robertson snagged 50 balls for 767 yards and 7 TDs. Robertson was the top ranked receiver in his recruiting class per 247Sports so he comes with high expectations. Georgia has lacked a true difference maker at the position in recent years so it will be fun to see how much QB Jake Fromm is able to grow with Robertson as a target.
- Underclassman to Watch: D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia. Swift takes over the reigns with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel on to the NFL. Swift got involved as a true freshman, rushing for 618-3 and adding 17 receptions. He’ll earn 1,200+ total yards and double digit scores this season.
- Best QB-WR Tandem: Jordan Ta’amu and AJ Brown, Ole Miss. As I’ve mentioned, Ole Miss has a stellar group of receivers which is led by Brown. He may the best of the bunch in the conference, although South Carolina’s Bryan Edwards may disagree (more on both below). Ta’amu was efficient in limited duty in 2017 and will give the offense a boost as the full-time signal caller in 2018.
- Best RB Corps: Alabama. The Crimson Tide have two #1 running back recruits on their roster according to Phil Steele: senior Damien Harris and sophomore Najee Harris (no relation). The Harris brothers combined for nearly 1,400 yards and 14 TDs. Josh Jacobs is the best receiver of the bunch (14 receptions last year) and would probably start for most other teams. Alabama had the conference’s second-best rushing attack in 2017. Even though they lost Bo Scarborough, the Tide will continue to dominate on the ground. Keep on eye on Georgia’s backfield as well, they are just as deep but younger (Editor’s note: UGA freshman RB Zamir White tore his ACL and is out for the year).
- Coach on the Hottest Seat: Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee. Judging by the vim and vigor that Vols fans ran off Greg Schiano before he was even offered the job, I fear for Pruitt’s safety if Tennessee fails to be bowl eligible again in 2018. In reality there’s no way he would lose the job after one season, barring some off-field scandal, but I figure he’s probably the odds-on favorite to be the next to lose a job in the SEC. Other new guys like Dan Mullen, Jimbo Fisher, Matt Luke and Chad Morris each have a longer rope (for different reasons, of course). Hopefully the Pruitt family decided to rent rather than buy.
Teams to Watch
South Carolina (9-4 in 2017)
The Gamecocks finished the regular season at 8-4 in 2017 and tacked on an Outback Bowl win over Michigan to get to nine victories. I am predicting South Carolina to finish the season with the same record as last year so why are they on my Teams to Watch list? Because there’s a non-zero chance they come out atop the SEC East and steal a conference championship appearance. At this point it’s safe to pick Georgia to win the division but these two skirmish in Week 2. It’s rare to have such a heavyweight divisional game that early and it could be South Carolina’s shot to shock the college football world. As Tom Luginbill recently pointed out on XM radio, South Carolina lucks out in their cross-over games. They avoid Alabama, Auburn and LSU and instead get Missouri, Texas A&M and Ole Miss. The offense returns all of its productive skill position players except for TE Hayden Hurst. Thanks to NFL prospect receivers Deebo Samuel and Bryan Edwards, QB Jake Bentley should be able to keep the offense moving. The defense will be missing a number of key pieces from the 2017 unit (which held opponents to just 20.7 ppg), but they have gone into the last two seasons with just six returners and should fare fine. I don’t think I’m willing to bet the over with any significant amount but I would not be surprised to see USC contending late in the season.
Florida (4-7 in 2017)
I am certainly no Gator fan but they are an easy pick as a team to improve. New head coach Dan Mullen comes to Gainesville with the luxury of 19 projected returning starters. RB Jordan Scarlett returns after his season-long suspension for participating in a credit card fraud scheme. Scarlett rushed for 1,070 yards in 2016 so he’s a valuable piece to get back and add to last year’s leading rushers Lamical Perine and Malik Davis. The quarterback position is a big question mark. I would not be surprised to see Mullen reboot and start freshman Emory Jones under center at some point this season. Like South Carolina, Florida’s schedule sets up nicely for 7-8 win potential. They only play four true road games and get their hardest cross-division opponent, LSU, at home. I won’t be rooting for Florida to become bowl eligible but it’s going to happen.
Players to Watch
Honorable Mentions
- Jarrett Stidham, QB, Auburn: My opinion of Stidham fluctuated throughout the 2017 season. I questioned him early but was impressed with him late. In the Georgia and Alabama games, Stidham made a positive impression on me as a smart runner with the ball. This may be damning with faint praise but I likened him to Alex Smith at one point last season (you may remember, Smith was the first overall pick in 2005 so that comp is actually saying a lot). In 2017, Stidham gained 3,158 yards through the air; he added 153 on the ground. That rushing total belies his true impact though. Per Phil Steele’s stats, Stidham gained 383 yards on the ground but lost 230 of them to sacks. Stidham scored 22 combined TDs which I’d like to see increase to 30 this time around. He’s in the conversation for the first quarterback off the board at the 2019 NFL Draft so I’ll be monitoring him all season long.
- Nick Fitzgerald, QB, Mississippi State: A number of college football minds that I listen to and read love Fitzgerald. Admittedly, I have not watched much of him so this is a speculative addition to my preview based on what I’ve heard elsewhere. Fitzgerald is a dual-threat quarterback who rushed for 984 yards and 14 TDs. He threw for 1,782 yards and 15 TDs with 11 INTs. Fitzgerald missed the end of the 2017 season with a dislocated ankle but he’ll be fine for 2018. Hopefully the injury does not hamper his rushing ability in any way. Fitzgerald has an NFL-ready body at 6050/230 so if we see passing game improvement he could land on the draft radar.
- Benny Snell, RB, Kentucky: Throughout his first two seasons on campus, Snell has been supremely productive. Over those 26 games, he has 2,424 yards and 32 TDs. He added ten receptions in 2017; that’s a nice addition to his resume but in 2017 he should strive for twenty. I have limited exposure to Snell but from what I have seen he appears to have patience and vision at the line and enough size and speed for the next level. I have a feeling that Snell will be a sneaky fantasy rookie come 2018 if he lands in a good spot.
- Trayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M: Williams is an interesting running back prospect to me because his height and running style don’t seem to match. I’m not quite sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing. I watched some 2016 highlight videos and his 2017 game against Auburn. He’s an upright runner who appears to always be running downhill. He’s listed at 5090/200 but he looks smaller on film. I didn’t see a ton of wiggle and tackle breaking ability but he has the speed to hit a hole and gain the necessary yardage. What was most interesting was seeing that he’s such a good receiver that the Aggies trust him to line up split out. Let’s see how he rates as a pass blocker but after a quick glance I think Williams will project as a valuable passing down back in the NFL.
- Damien Harris, RB, Alabama: Harris was in the running for a first round fantasy draft grade last season but decided to return to Alabama for his senior season. I’m not quite sure that was the right decision because the Tide backfield is crowded. Harris is a durable 5110/221 runner with speed and elusiveness to break off big runs. He has averaged over 7.0 yards per carry the last two seasons which is impressive for anybody, but especially for a back who is 220+. I’ve seen Harris labeled as “under the radar” but I find that narrative hard to believe. He’s a former top recruit who has two back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons at Alabama. That’s about as “on the radar” as you can get.
- DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss: Metcalf has elite size (6040/225) and measureables. He made Sports Illustrated’s 2017 “Freaks List” because of his past exploits as a high school track star. Metcalf reportedly ran a 4.46 last offseason which would instantly make him a first round NFL Draft prospect. Before we jump to conclusions though, let’s see how Metcalf does in 2018, sharing the wealth again with a stacked receiving corps. In 2017, he ended with a respectable 39-646-7 line; it really is a shame that Metcalf is competing for targets instead of being a no-brainer WR1 for his squad.
- Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina: It’s so disappointing as a college football fan that somebody as talented as Deebo Samuel has struggled with injuries. Samuel has played in just 18 career games in three years at South Carolina. His career totals of 86-1,194-5 receiving and 17-128-7 rushing and 3 return TDs are encouraging. I’ll be rooting for Samuel to get through a full season so we can fully evaluate his NFL Draft stock come the Spring.
- Albert Okwuegbunam, TE, Missouri: The man of many nicknames. My favorite so far might be “A-Ok” but it’s going to be a long draft season of pronunciation jokes directed at Mr. Okwuegbunam. He’s going to be a redshirt sophomore this season so there is no guarantee he comes out, especially considering how long it usually takes tight ends to develop. If Okwuegbunam does come out, he’ll be highly sought for his potential. As a redshirt freshman, Okwuegbunam had 29 receptions, 415 yards and 11 TDs. His touchdowns will regress in 2018 but I expect his other totals to improve. He has size similar to that of Dallas Goedert from the 2018 class. To reach that level though he will need to prove he’s a good blocker and all-around athlete.
- Isaac Nauta, TE, Georgia: Nauta’s fantasy potential took a hit last season because of a significant decrease in production. He put up a great 29-361-3 line in 2016 which earned him Freshman All-American honors by a number of publications. In 2017, however, Nauta caught just nine balls despite playing in all fifteen games. Improving as a blocker in the dominant Bulldog rushing offense is important in NFL terms, but it won’t help Nauta’s fantasy draft stock. Hopefully we see more balance from Nauta this year as Georgia moves to a more balanced attack.
- Josh Allen, LB, Kentucky: The “other” Josh Allen might just end up being the better professional prospect. This Josh Allen is a pass rushing outside ‘backer at Kentucky. He has led the Wildcats in sacks each of the last two seasons (7, 7) and topped 60 tackles in both campaigns. His size, speed and statistical profiles remind me of Lorenzo Carter who I was very high on last season. I’m looking forward to watching some tape of Allen’s this year to see if that comp holds true.
- Devin White, LB, LSU: The aforementioned White is a productive MLB who I frequently see popping up as a first rounder for next year’s NFL Draft. White appears to have more than enough speed to get to the edge and has the ability to fight off blocks and chase down runners. He is an impact player who gets into the backfield and is constantly disruptive.
- Greedy Williams, CB, LSU: Is there a better nickname for a cornerback? Williams lived up to the moniker in 2017 by snatching 6 INTs. He added 38 tackles and 10 pass breakups as well. Williams is long at 6030 and will be coveted for his size and ball skills.
Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
Lock, who has started since early in his freshman season, is another name to remember come April. He’s currently in the running for the QB1 spot and if history is any indication he could creep into first round consideration. Lock nearly eclipsed 4,000 passing yards last season (3,964) and threw an FBS best 44 TDs. He threw 13 INTs which was worst in the conference but you can excuse that when he puts up the points he does. In fact, Missouri led the SEC in scoring with 37.5 points per game. Lock loses offensive coordinator, and quarterback whisperer, Josh Heupel, who took the UCF job. For Lock’s future, it’s less about whether the offense keeps moving and more about working on his consistency.
While watching Lock, I felt that both the speed and touch on his balls was average to above average but inconsistent. To borrow a cliche, he has the “arm talent” but he doesn’t display it on every rep. I have to admit that he can throw a beauty of a ball, dude can spin it. Lock needs to improve his accuracy and I’d also like to see him anticipate his receiver’s movements a bit more. He has enough speed and athleticism to escape the pocket but I did not see him complete a single pass after being flushed against South Carolina. Lock is listed at 6040 but I bet he’ll measure in smaller than that; at times he seemed to disappear behind the offensive line.
Lock isn’t my QB1 at the moment but he’s flirting with the top five in my rankings. I was encouraged enough by what I saw to know that I need to keep a close eye on him this season. He’s going to be a prospect whose value relies heavily on which games you choose to watch. (Film watched: South Carolina 2017, Highlights 2017)
AJ Brown, WR, Ole Miss
As I have mentioned elsewhere in this preview, Brown is one cog in a mighty Ole Miss receiving machine. He led the team in receptions, yards and TDs in 2017 (75-1,252-11). One knock against Brown would be that his stats are inflated by three huge games against subpar opponents. Against South Alabama, he went for 8-233-2; the following week against Tenn-Martin he totaled 8-156-2. Later in the season, versus Louisiana-Lafayette, he hauled in 14 balls for 185 yards and two scores.
Brown is a 6010/225 slot receiver who makes his hay after the catch. He is a bear to bring down and creates extra yardage while defenders try to drag him down. He has enough speed to break free when he is able to shrug off a would-be tackler. In addition to power moves, he has some finesse moves as well; against South Carolina he executed a fantastic juke that literally may have broken the defender’s ankle. I was not able to devote the time to fully study Brown’s route running so I will need to check back on that. In the Kentucky game he ran a lot of short and intermediate routes. I’d love to see him used outside and on more varied routes in 2018. I did not observe Brown in any high point contested catch situations but I don’t doubt his ability to win in those situations with his strength.
Because he feasted on lesser defenses, it will be vitally important to track how Brown does in 2018 versus top competition. If he shows that he can play against the big boys too, he’ll be near the top of my 2019 receiver rankings. Ironically, he might be fighting off teammate DK Metcalf for the top spot on my list. (Film watched: Kentucky 2017, Highlights 2017)
Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina
Surprise, another wide receiver who is vying for the pinnacle of the position. Have I mentioned that 2019 will be a good year for rookie wide receivers? Through two years as a starter, Edwards has 108 receptions, 1,383 yards and 9 TDs. His stats are not eye-popping but against tough SEC opposition it’s understandable. Similarly to Brown, Edwards best games came outside of the Southeastern Conference. His two best totals, 122 and 90 yards, came against Louisiana Tech and Wofford, respectively. Edwards is listed at 6030/215 which puts him in a sweet spot of talented NFL wide receivers. I’d like to see his speed and acceleration improve but even if he runs in the 4.55-4.60 range, at that height, he could draw comps to Michael Thomas or Allen Robinson. Edwards certainly has some ways to go though before we truly bestow that comparison upon him though.
Unfortunately, there is not much tape yet available for Edwards. I was stuck with just a single game to choose from. In that game, against NC State, I noted that Edwards is violent out of his route breaks, whipping his head towards the quarterback and looking for the ball. He also showed that he’s not afraid to go over the middle to make a catch. It’s important to keep an even keel when scouting highlight videos, after all they are by definition the player’s best moments, but I came away very impressed with Edwards. In those highlights he showed an ability to win both at the catch point and after the catch. There were a number of circus grabs that showcased his tracking, concentration and body control. In a few close-up replays I even got a glimpse of his footwork at the line of scrimmage which looked positive.
At no point while watching highlights did I feel “this is the best we’ll ever see from Edwards.” Instead, I thought to myself, “there’s so much potential for Edwards to show us more.” I’m glad South Carolina has such a big game early in the season (Week 2 vs Georgia) because it will give me a chance to study him even further. (Film watched: NC State 2017, Highlights 2017)
Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor. My experimental grading system uses a Madden-like approach by weighting position relevant traits on a 100-point scale; bonus or negative points are awarded based on production, size, injury history and character. Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths. So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113. This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch. For top prospects I may add a third game, while for long shots I might only devote the time for one. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…
- Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
- Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
- Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
- Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
- Draft history: drafthistory.com
- Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
- Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
- Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft
- Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com, the media home for FWAA members
Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.
