The Watch List: 2019 SEC Season Preview
Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. Check back throughout the Spring and Summer as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.
Storylines to Watch
Heisman Contender: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama. Tagovailoa, the 2018 runner-up, is my preseason pick to win the 2019 Heisman. He’ll need to fend off Oregon’s Justin Herbert for the QB1 mantle, but Tagovailoa has the inside track for the trophy because he’ll put up bigger numbers and contend for a championship.
Underclassman to Watch: JaTarvious Whitlow, RB, Auburn. Redshirt sophomore running back JaTarvious Whitlow earned the starting job last season but battled multiple injuries which limited his effectiveness in a few games. He finished with a 787-6 rushing line and added 15-173-2 as a receiver. Whitlow is wide-shouldered and stout, and runs with a downhill style; his style is especially effective when the defense is spread wide and Whitlow can find creases between the tackles. He served as the team’s wildcat quarterback and I would expect even more trick plays this year, like the touchdown pass he threw against Georgia. Whitlow will be pushed by senior Kam Martin and freshman Mark-Antony Richards. It’s still unclear who will be handing off to the running backs, either redshirt freshman Joey Gatewood or true freshman Bo Nix. Head coach Gus Malzahn has been coy about who his season opening starter will be. Regardless, the Tigers backfield is set for years to come. [Editor’s note: Bo Nix was named the starter.]
Newcomer of the Year: Riley Neal, QB, Vanderbilt. The draft stocks of the Commodores’ three NFL-ready prospects — RB Ke-Shawn Vaughn, WR Kalija Lipscomb and TE Jared Pinkney — will rely heavily on graduate transfer quarterback Riley Neal. Neal joins from Ball State where he battled injury and inconsistency the last few seasons. He’s experienced with 34 career games and has NFL size at 6060/225 but is his arm worthy of the SEC? Neal’s pro upside may be limited to that of a camp arm, however he’ll be a capable game manager that can get Vanderbilt their first winning season since 2013.
Coaching Carousel: There’s not a single new head coach in the SEC this season, so instead we’ll concentrate on the coach on the hottest seat. That’s likely Arkansas gipper Chad Morris. Morris left SMU after just three seasons, finishing with a 14-23 record and just one bowl game (a 51-10 shellacking from Louisiana Tech). Prior to SMU, he made a name for himself as Clemson’s offensive coordinator from 2011-2014, the first four seasons of their rise under Dabo Swinney. I think we’re twelve disappointing games away from realizing that Morris wasn’t yet ready to land an SEC head coaching job.
Players to Watch
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
For the last three years, #DraftTwitter has been talking about Tua Tagovailoa so his impending draft eligibility feels bittersweet. By now, Tua’s story is well known to even casual fans but let’s hit the highlights here. Tagovailoa, a lefty from Hawaii, was the top quarterback prospect in the 2017 class according to multiple recruiting services. Despite his tremendous potential, he was the understudy for much of the 2017 season. That is, until the Hollywood-esque climax in the national championship game where he came in at halftime to spell an ineffective Jalen Hurts. Tagovailoa kept the starting job in 2018 and led the Tide to another championship appearance on his way to a second place Heisman finish. The 2019 season starts with even larger expectations as Tagovailoa is the unquestioned leader — Hurts grad transferred to Oklahoma — and has an incomparable receiving corps at his fingertips.
Plenty of digital ink has been spilled on Tagovailoa and his best traits so it’s doubtful I’m blazing any new trails in my analysis. He throws a beautifully weighted deep ball that always manages to lead the receiver just right. He is a jazz maestro who can improvise when a play breaks down. When he wants to be, he can be mobile and pick-up key first downs with his feet. His pocket awareness is typically great and he can tap dance his way out of pressure while keeping his eyes downfield. Tagovailoa has such an innate ability to succeed on any given play that it can actually be difficult to put into words.
Like you, I watched plenty of Alabama football last season. However, I wanted to look at Tagovailoa with fresh eyes so I concentrated on two 2018 game films: Tennessee and Georgia. Much of my initial assumptions about his play held, but it was clear to me that there were two aspects of his game that I should highlight.
In this play against Tennessee, you’ll see what it looks like when Tagovailoa is at his improvisational best. He starts going through his progressions as the play unfolds. There’s a split second where he considers leaving the pocket but instead he keeps looking for an open receiver. He ultimately sees Jerry Jeudy in single coverage. Jeudy recognizes that his quarterback is in trouble and looks to get open. He starts towards the center of the field to give Tagovailoa a shorter throw, but instead, Tagovailoa leads him towards the far sideline of the end zone. Even from the opposite hash, the ball is placed well. Any cross-body throw can be dangerous but it seems like Jeudy was the only one in position to make a play. I bet it was a conscious decision to throw Jeudy towards the sideline so that the sitting defender was out of the play.
— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) August 23, 2019
You’ll see similar scramble drill touchdowns strewn throughout Tagovailoa’s highlights. There are a number of times that it doesn’t work out positively though. I think that he wins so often that it’s difficult for Tagovailoa to realize when a sack or a throw-away are the best available options. In this play against Georgia, he pirouettes his way into an eleven yard loss. He was already outside the pocket when he set his feet the first time so once he realized he didn’t have an open receiver he could have thrown it away for another shot from the six yard line. Instead, he threw an interception on the next play.
— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) August 23, 2019
My favorite play of Tagovailoa’s from this study came in the third quarter of the Tennessee game. The game was well in hand and this score actually was his last snap of the game. What stood out was his ability to manipulate the pocket with his feet. Tagovailoa often shows a feel for when to climb the pocket, when to sidestep the rush or when to escape, but this play against Tennessee was just wonderful. It’s hard to see it in GIF form but if you watch the actual footage on YouTube and slow it down you can really see how natural his pocket mobility can be. After he drops back he feels the pressure coming from the right side, his blindside. He steps up then takes two subtle steps to his right. These gather steps, as I’ll call them, are what screamed out to me to be featured in this preview. By moving to his right, Tagovailoa is able to get a few steps further away from the collapsing pocket and gives himself a better throwing lane. It also puts him square in the sight of the middle linebacker who is coming on a delayed rush. Tagovailoa surely sees the linebacker sprinting straight at him but he still delivers a lofted deep ball. The receiver is able to get underneath it and has just enough length to make the play in stride. I loved it.
— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) August 23, 2019
It’s clear to me that Tagovailoa has a natural ability that can transcend. I think he has the potential to be truly special. I do think he has some more to show NFL scouts though, such as making smarter decisions under pressure and that he can limit the accumulation of small injuries. We’ll be debating Tua Tagovailoa versus Justin Herbert all season and I can’t wait. If Tagovailoa isn’t the first overall pick in April, he’ll surely be off the board second or third.
Honorable Mentions
With so many NFL prospects in the SEC, I found myself struggling to decide who to feature in the Players to Watch section. In an effort to give readers a feel for the breadth of NFL talent in the conference, I decided to give Tua Tagovailoa a full spotlight and then include more honorable mentions than I usually do.
Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia: Fromm pulled a “Wally Pipp” in 2017, stealing the starting job when incumbent Jacob Eason went down with an injury in the season opener. He hasn’t looked back since, mostly because his success forced both Eason and the highly touted Justin Fields to transfer. Eason is battling for the job at Washington and Fields is expected to be the number one for Ohio State. I’ve often viewed Fromm as a game-manager type but I need to reconsider due to the the fact that he beat out two guys who may lead their respective teams to playoff contention. Fromm is listed at 6020/220 and looks cocked and ready in the pocket as he scans the field. He confidently slings it in highlights. Fromm isn’t a threat to take off running but he shows good functional mobility in the pocket. I predict NFL teams will feel he’s immediately pro-ready and he’ll be drafted higher than #DraftTwitter rates him.
Lamical Perine, RB, Florida: Perine has been the beneficiary of some recent online hype so I decided I should take a look at some highlights to get a feel for his game. I didn’t note any elite physical traits, but Perine doesn’t need them to succeed because in my short study it appears that he has fantastic patience and vision. He sets up his blocks well and keeps his eyes forward to find his next avenue. One specific run against Vanderbilt sealed it for me because he essentially hid in his blocker’s shadow, with a hand on his back, for much of the 20+ yard run. I never seem to watch much Gator football but if Perine crests 1,000 yards this year he’ll be on my short list for offseason study.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia: Swift is my current 1.01 for 2020 rookie drafts. He’s a smart runner who takes excellent angles in the second level and can make tacklers miss with strong cuts. Swift is also an excellent receiver who runs multiple routes, uses his hands to catch and adjusts well to the ball in the air. I noted he’s very aware pre-snap, reading the defense and his assignment, which signals to me that he has potential to be an excellent pass protector as he develops. Swift doesn’t have the short area speed that some other backs in the class have but his long speed is more than enough to break off long runs. The 2020 running back class could be historic and Swift will be one of the reasons why.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB, Vanderbilt: Vaughn is a former Illinois transfer who showed out in his first season in Nashville. He ended the year with 1,244 rushing yards and 12 TDs; his 7.9 yards per carry led the SEC. Vaughn runs with a useful combination of power and speed: he can convert near the goal line and has a 4.45 top speed. I also noted great contact balance which helps him keep runs alive after contact. His vision is also a plus. I thought he showed an innate ability to find cut back lanes and secondary holes. When he does find these, he sticks his foot in the ground and generates enough push to bounce outside or get upfield. As a fifth year senior, Vaughn is an older prospect which might limit his NFL window but he should still factor in at the next level.
Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina: Edwards is a powerfully built outside receiver who tracks the ball well and frequently secures difficult catches. He’s fast enough at the college level to separate and be a downfield threat, but I think his NFL role will be more of a reliable possession receiver. That role will best suit his play strength and body control which allow him to excel along the sidelines and when contested. Edwards isn’t a sexy name in this class but he has a high floor and is likely to be fantasy relevant in the pros.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama: Jerry Jeudy really deserved a larger write-up for this preview. However, I know he’s somebody I will be writing about throughout the season so I thought it was best to sacrifice some column inches here in order to highlight a few other players. Jeudy is sudden as a route runner — he can change directions in a blink and can stop on a dime. He displays both long and short speed with what I described in my notes as “incredible acceleration.” The biggest knock on Jeudy will be his size. At a lean 6010/192, Jeudy needs to prove that his body can withstand the punishment of an NFL season. Perhaps the criticism is unfair because Jeudy played in all 29 of Alabama’s games in his first two seasons (he did have a minor knee surgery before the 2018 season but didn’t miss any of the regular season). If he paces a talented group of Tide receivers again in 2019, Jeudy will contend for the 1.01 in 2020 rookie drafts.
Kalija Lipscomb, WR, Vanderbilt: Kalija Lipscomb is deployed all over the field: as a receiver he lines up on both sides, inside and out; he takes hand-offs; he returned punts his first two seasons. I watched Lipscomb against Georgia and Notre Dame from last season and came away impressed with his route running. He uses leverage well, varies his speed to confuse the corner and can suddenly change direction. Lipscomb is listed at 6010/201 but looks more wiry than that, especially in his lower body. Despite that, he’s feisty, often hand fighting on his route and not being afraid to throw a block or come across the middle. Lipscomb is a do-everything receiver who will find a role in the NFL, likely out of the slot and on special teams.
Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama: Henry Ruggs stood out among a crowd of Alabama pass catchers because of his his sticky-strong hands. The highlight reel I watched was subtitled “go go gadget hands” in a nod to the Inspector Gadget character, and it fits Ruggs. He can make tough hands catches away from his body, even with a defender on his back. I was also impressed with him after the catch because he runs with great burst and an abandon that belies his stature. Ruggs and fellow WR Devonta Smith will be fascinating players for draft rankers. I think it would be easy to subconsciously lower a player like Ruggs in your rankings because it feels odd to highly rank two players of the same position from the same team, but if Ruggs checks the metaphorical boxes why should we discount him just because of who else is on his team (a la Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson in the 2019 class).
Albert Okwuegbunam, TE, Missouri: Okwuegbunam was the first prospect I studied this offseason because I remembered his dominant eleven touchdown redshirt freshman year (on just 29 receptions). His scoring rate and yards per catch dropped in 2018 but he was more involved in the offense overall, grabbing 43 balls. Okwuegbunam is an excellent receiver who uses his hands and fingertips to secure the catch and utilizes good body control to finish. I felt he lacked the suddenness and explosion in his blocks but I was surprised by how often he lined up as an inline blocker, so there may be room for improvement. The biggest concern with Okwuegbunam may be his availability — he missed three games last year with a shoulder injury and this offseason he’s been dealing with a knee and “a number of things.” If healthy, Okwuegbunam is likely to be a Top 10 tight end in the class.
Jared Pinkney, TE, Vanderbilt: Of the three Commodores, Jared Pinkney, probably has the highest draft stock right now. At 6040/260, Pinkney has the size of a traditional blocking tight end but he put up the production of a move tight end (50-774-7 last year). Draftscout.com has Pinkney as their top senior tight end and the fifth overall behind a few underclassmen. They project Pinkney as having 4.67 speed. No other tight end in the last four classes has weighed 260+ and run under a 2.70. I only watched a few clips of Pinkney but I am encouraged by what I saw, especially when paired with his size/speed/production profile.
Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths. So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113. This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. When studying a player I rely on game film “cuts” which are most frequently found on Youtube. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels. Keep in mind these highlight reels are the best plays of that player. When I have the option, I will choose to watch a game versus the better defense. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players. When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:
- Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
- Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
- Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
- Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
- NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
- Draft history: drafthistory.com
- Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
- Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
- Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
- Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
- Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com
Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.
