IDP Start/Sit: Week 14

Updated: December 6th 2023

This is it. This is our last push for the playoffs (hopefully you wonderful readers have already locked that up though!). But just in case you need a little help finding some decisions or considerations for your lineups this week, let’s dive into my thoughts for week 14.

Week 13 Recap

DL:

Start: Osa Odighizuwa (3 solos, 3 assists,Qb hit, TFL) 👍

Sit: Denico Autry (3 solos, 1assist, 1 sack, QB hit, FF, PD) 👎

LB:

Start: Jack Campbell (4 solos, 5 assists, 2 TFLs) 👍 – Only on 79% snaps, efficient, talent, but not locked in

Sit: Markquese Bell (4 solos, 4 assists) 👎

DB:

Start: Jordan Battle (4 solos, 3 assists, TFL, 1 sack, QB hit, PD) 👍

Sit: Richie Grant (1 solo, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 FF) 👎 – Big play made the day for him this week

Week 14 Starts & Sits

START: Samson Ebukam, Indianapolis Colts, DL38 (ED31)

7-5 for the Colts is a bit of a surprise with some of the injuries that they have had to overcome. What has been a contributing factor to these surprising results? The play of that defensive front is a big part of this. DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye for sure, but Samson Ebukam has been very good for this front. But especially good over his last 3 games. 4 sacks, but has a 16.45% pressure rate, which is 6 points higher than his 10.14% pressure rate for the entire season. Enter the Cincinnati Bengals with a 27% pressure rate allowed this season as well as a 15% sack conversion rate on those pressures. Pair that with the Bengals seemingly more willing to utilize their passing attack with backup Jake Browning under center, this should set up for a favorable matchup and a good volume of opportunities for Ebukam.

SIT: Chase Young, San Francisco 49ers, DL20 (ED18)

It seems like nothing can stop the San Francisco 49ers recently. While the offense looks great, the defense is doing its part, too. And the addition of Chase Young was a very solid move for this team. However, in his 4 games with the 49ers, it has been feast or famine. 2 sacks and 1 tackle are his 4 games total. His 14.19% pressure rate over the time would leave us to believe he is an ideal play against the Seahawks this week and their usually favorable matchup. However, last week they showed a changeup in their offense to mitigate a strong Cowboys pass rush. They went to a very quick passing attack with Geno Smith’s time to throw of 2.31 seconds, which was way down from his season average of 2.76 (which includes this most recent game). The offense was successful, they didn’t surrender a sack, and this doesn’t look great for the 49ers pass-rush. Especially Chase Young, who doesn’t seem to have a tackle floor either.

START: Mykal Walker, Pittsburgh Steelers, LB27

Mykal Walker has been a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers for three whole weeks now. And due to some unfortunate health in the linebacker room, Walker has seen his role continue to increase, as well. Elandon Robert’s most recent groin injury is just the latest news in this ongoing saga. With his increased time in Pittsburgh, we have seen his production rise each week as well (from 3 tackles to 5 to 11 this last week). While his overall numbers are average in terms of efficiency, he is getting a very favorable matchup for LB tackle production in the New England Patriots. Their offensive situation over the last 3 games has netted an average of 20 tackles to the LB position for the Patriots’ opponents. This should be an ideal game for Mykal Walker to deliver above-average efficiency and increased volume due to the injuries, which will lead to a very good week for Mykal.

SIT: Nicholas Morrow, Philadelphia Eagles, LB30

Nicholas Morrow has been involved in another linebacker room that has dealt with a litany of injuries this season. It has even seen Morrow go from a starter to a backup role, and back to the starter again. While no one will argue Morrow’s ability to be on the field, align a defense, and play his role, his IDP production has been one of mediocre value at times throughout his career. This season has shown to be similar with a 9.61% tackle efficiency, almost 4 points lower than the league average and closer to safety tackle efficiency. With a crucial week 14 matchup against their division rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, there is little concern as the last 3 weeks, the Cowboys’ opponents have only seen 15.3 tackles for the LB position. The inefficient play, combined with the less-than-favorable matchup, means Morrow is a fade for me.

START: Kyle Hamilton, Baltimore Ravens, DB34 (S26)

Kyle Hamilton has seen his IDP production shift a bit this year, as well as his alignment and utilization. Primarily deep safety, slot role, box safety, deep, and back to slot defender. And this has been his primary role now for the last three weeks taking over 40 snaps a week there. While his tackle production has been average at just under 5 a game during this period (that’s with a 1 tackle performance), we have seen him generate 5 pressures, 4 hurries, and a QB hit. He also has 2 PD’s to boot. The Rams matchup this week is less favorable for safeties overall in terms of tackle production, but Hamilton is more of a slot defender or box safety, which aren’t like your traditional safeties. Hamilton has shown a respectable tackle floor but his big-play upside is a great reason for him to deliver this week against the Los Angeles Rams.

SIT: Jalen Pitre, Houston Texans, DB36 (S28)

Jalen Pitre is less than 1 season removed from an outstanding 144-tackle performance. This season has seen him regress to the mean as he is on a 93-tackle pace over a 17-game span. His alignment this year is a bit down from last year as well with 43% of his snaps coming from the sweet spot. Even with his reduction in production, and shifted utilization, Pitre is still a relatively consistent IDP performer. What makes him less-than-ideal this week, is the matchup against the New York Jets. The Jets are providing league-low tackles to their opponents’ safeties at 9.6 per game, with the last 3 games averaging 6.0. That is an extremely small pie to divide up among others, let alone one’s self. Pitre is a pass for me in week 14

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 11

Updated: November 16th 2023

IDP Start/Sit: Week 11

 

Week 10 was not our best outcome of the season with only 2 good picks, but the process looked good for most of them. Variance can be our friend, but this week, it was not. But let’s move forward to week 11 and talk through our lineups as we near playoff time.

Week 10 Recap

DL:

Start: Calijah Kancey (3 solos, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits) 👍 – 2 big plays in the backfield, I like this as a good week.

Sit: Khalil Mack (4 solos, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit) 👎 – A borderline game, I took the W on Kancey, I’ll take the L on Mack

LB:

Start: Patrick Queen (6 solos, 3 assists) 👎 – I thought we would see more beyond on just standard tackles this week. I’ll take the L on that.

Sit: Alex Anzalone (4 solos, 5 assists, PD, QB hit) 👎 

DB:

Start: Alontae Taylor (4 solos, 1 assist, TFL, 2 PDs) 👍

Sit: Keisean Nixon (2 solos, 2 assists, PD, 151 return yards) 👎

Week 11 Starts & Sits

START: Kyle Van Noy, Baltimore Ravens, DL42 (ED33)

Kyle Van Noy has done it again, he has found a team, he has found a role, and he is finding a way to deliver IDP value. The Ravens’ defense as a whole has been excellent this year and many are finding success but it is fun to see a veteran role player making such an impact. He has had a nice run over his last three games as well. 12 pressures, 2 sacks, but he has been so close on quite a few, too. Add an additional QB hit and 9 hurries to go along and you can see how he has been not only delivering, but the potential to have more on top of that. He was dealing with a groin injury this week but was a full participant on practice on Wednesday so you can feel confident about his usage this week which over the last 3 weeks has been good as a more of the pass rush specialist, at 36 snaps per game. This does limit his tackle floor and explain his lowered ranking, but when you need to stream that DL spot or are chasing sack upside, Van Noy is our guy this week. His matchup against the Bengals should be a plus matchup overall as well with the Bengals allowing just over 17 pressures per game over their last 3 as well. The Ravens offense has played very well this season and his likely to keep this in a negative game script or at least neutral for the Bengals, meaning more pass rushing opportunities overall. The intersection of Van Noy’s performance and the Bengals looking like a plus matchup make Van Noy a great streaming candidate.

SIT: Montez Sweat, Chicago Bears, DL15 (ED14)

Montez Sweat has had a very good IDP season so far and has done so in a consistent fashion that really shouldn’t warrant a sitting or fading of him in our lineups. 27 pressures on 239 pass rush snaps for a very respectable 12.29% pass rush pressure rate. He has done well to convert those pressures into sacks with 8 on the season already. Additionally, he has delivered an average of 3 tackles a game too as a nice little baseline. So why are we considering fading Sweat? It is a little bit his change of scenery and a lot more his unfavorable matchup against the Detroit Lions. In his 2 games, he has shown a lot less activity in the run defense of the game and has only compiled 2 total tackles. Small sample, I know, but it is still a bit concerning at this point and takes away from the floor he had in Washington. Then, enter the Detroit Lions and their 3rd best pressure rate allowed 2nd best sack conversion percentage. Sweat has shown an ability to deliver and if you don’t have many other options, he is still capable from talent alone to make his week on one big play, but for me, I am lowering my expectations on Montez Sweat this week.

START: Elandon Roberts, Pittsburgh Steelers, LB26

Elandon Roberts seems to be the last man standing in Pittsburgh with Kwon Alexander suffering a significant injury last week, and Holcomb is already on IR, it is Robert’s show to run at this point for the Steelers’ LB room. Roberts is well known as a solid run defender but not so much for his coverage skills, well enter a Cleveland Browns team that already surrenders some of the most tackles per game to their opponents’ linebackers and now has lost their starting QB in Deshaun Watson for the season. And a team without its starting QB is likely to lean into its run game to help “cover up” its lesser QB. To say this is an ideal matchup for Roberts, might be one of the biggest understatements. Roberts should be in all of our lineups this week.

SIT: De’Vondre Campbell, Green Bay Packers, LB27

De’Vondre Campbell, after missing some time earlier this season, has ended up back in the lead role with Quay Walker experiencing his own injury issues. His production was strong in his first week back against Minnesota with 14 tackles and a handful of other plays. However, the last two weeks he has averaged 5.5 tackles, with only 4 of them as the solo variety. And early in this week, he might be moving back into a smaller role with Quary Walker logging a limited practice on Wednesday already and McDuffie showing his viability during the injuries of Campbell and Walker, too. Reduced opportunities aren’t always the end of an LB’s IDP viability, however, the lowered opportunities paired with a matchup against the team allowing the lowest tackles and IDP scoring to their opposing linebackers is not a good thing. And that is what Campbell has in facing off against the Los Angeles Chargers.

START: Kevin Byard, Philadelphia Eagles, DB35 (S27)

Kevin Byard had his chance of scenery this year, just like Montez Sweat, and Byard has done a nice job maintaining his IDP production with the Eagles. His tackle floor has dipped just shy of 1 tackle per game, but he has maintained a great “sweet spot” utilization at 51.7% the last two games. In week 11, Byard gets the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has normally been a QB who doesn’t make many mistakes, however, this year has been a bit different, he already has 13 turnover-worthy plays this season through 9 games, whereas last 3 years he has averaged closer to 20 a season. Byard, who is normally a consistent play-maker, has yet to make that mark this season. And in a matchup with a team that has the 6th highest pass rate, a QB who is making more mistakes than usual, and a defender in Byard who likely has positive regression towards making a splash play to go along with a solid tackle floor, gives me a lot of confidence in firing up Kevin Byard in all my lineups.

SIT: Jalen Pitre, Houston Texans, DB23 (S18)

Jalen Pitre was the IDP darling last season with his other-worldly tackle production. His 2023 production has not matched this at all, but has been viable for our IDP lineups this year. However, last week we saw a shift away from Pitre as a box safety and get his lowest “sweet spot” utilization at 25% and it resulted in his worst tackle performance of the season with 1 solo tackle. Week 11 opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, don’t help Pitre’s overall opportunities with their bottom-third plays run per game at 61 plays. Even with Murray back last week, they still only ran 60 plays. They are not the higher-tempo offense we saw under Kliff Kingsbury. With the potential shift in his alignment and usage and the lowered ceiling of opportunities in fewer plays to defend, I am lower on Pitre’s potential outcomes.

 

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