IDP Start/Sit: Week 16
I hope just like this article, you and your fantasy team are moving on to week 16! But if not, you can come read and learn a bit about end of year and get a head start on players and things to watch for moving forward too! Regardless, I hope you and yours have a healthy and happy holidays!! Now let’s play some IDP fantasy football.
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show are the ECR from Fantasy Pros each week.
WEEK 15 RECAP
DL:
Start: Azeez Ojulari (0.5 sack, 2 solos, 2 assists, 2 QB hits. A solid game, easily overshadowed by Kayvon’s huge game)
Start: Kwity Paye (Sack, 5 solos, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits. Paye flashing a strong game.)
Sit: Jeffery Simmons (Sack, 4 solos, 2 assists, TFL, QB hit. Simmons’ ankle seemed fine and he delivered in a big way)
LB:
Start: Jack Sanborn (5 solos. He didn’t goose you, but could’ve been so much more if he didn’t get hurt early in the 3rd quarter)
Start: Zaire Franklin (6 solos, 4 assist, FF. Another strong game)
Sit: Devin Lloyd (7 solos, 2 assists. Lloyd looking the rookie LB for the rest of this season, at least)
DB:
Start: Andrew Adams (4 solos, 2 assists. For where he was ranked and probably available, not a terrible performance)
Start: Marcus Jones (4 solos, assist, PD, 25 return yards. He took 2 offensive snaps, no stats. Saw 100% of the IDP snaps though)
Sit: Jalen Thompson (3 solos, 6 assists. Strong delivery in the tackle game, a lot of assisted tackles though.)
START: Greg Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL27
Greg Rousseau has done a wonderful job as a pass-rusher this season and his PFF grade shows this with a very good 81.2 grade for the season. He also been a capable starter at times for our IDP rosters. This week against Chicago is shaping up to be another one of those weeks. In every game with at least 8 pass-rush snaps, Rousseau has posted a minimum of 3 pressures (per PFF). He has converted that into 8 sacks for a very respectable season so far. Enter the Bears who have an offensive line that is tied for 8th worst in pressures allowed (26%) and tied for 4th worst in sack conversion allowed (19%). This paired with Justin Fields tendency to hold on to the ball for a long time, he has the longest time to throw of any QB this season who has taken at least 100 drop backs, will allow for an athletic Edge player like Rousseau to find his way home for a big play. Rousseau is a strong DL2 play this week, with DL1 upside.
START: Jaelan Phillips, Miami Dolphins, DL47
Jaelan Phillips may sound familiar to you if you read this article every week. I liked him a few weeks ago, and I liked what he had for his playoff run as well. He had a strong game against the Bills this last week and I believe in him moving forward. Rousseau had a wonderful PFF pass-rush grade, but Phillips is just phenomenal. He has a season grade of 89.2! And his last 5 games highlight this especially. Over that stretch he is averaging 4.6 pressures, 1.0 sack, 1.2 QB hits, and 2.4 hurries per game. He clearly has the tools and the talent, welcome in the Packers for week 16. Now Green Bay boasts one of the better pressures allowed rate, tied for 4th best (22%), however, when they do allow pressures, they are more likely to turn into sacks, tied for 12th worst (17%). In a matchup that both teams need the win, I expect big plays and the effort to match from both sides and I see Phillips as high-end DL2 this week.
SIT: J.J. Watt, Arizona Cardinals, DL29
J.J. Watt looked like vintage Watt in week 15, with 3 sacks! While we love the positive news for a former FFIDP legend (2013-2015 Watt was insane!), but I do not like what week 16 could bring for Watt and his FFIDP output. A matchup of two savvy vets trying to make the most out of their season in Watt versus Tampa Bay and Tom Brady. Tampa Bay and all the complaints about their offensive line, Brady has found a way to operate within it and try to make it work. And that way is with very quick passes as Brady has the second fastest time to throw out of all QBs that have taken at least 100 drop backs (2.33 seconds). Brady will probably see some pressure, but I would expect very limited pass-rush production for Watt this week. Tampa is middle of the back at 15th best pressure rate (23%) but are tied for 5th best for sack conversion rate (10%). J.J. is someone I would consider in the DL4 range, which would make in unplayable in most formats.
START: Joe Thomas, Chicago Bears, LB67
First of all, a huge shoutout to Jack Sanborn and the fun and amazing performances he gave to FFIDP and the Chicago Bears after the Roquan Smith trade. However, his season is officially over after being placed on injured reserve. With his injury, welcome in Joe Thomas. In his replacement of Sanborn, Joe Thomas gave produced 6 combined tackles, sack, TFL, QB hit and all in 43 snaps. I am not saying he will produce big-play upside this week, but at LB67, his tackle efficiency and production has strong potential as he looks like a full-time role replacement for Chicago, which has been very productive for the non-Mike LB role this year. Joe Thomas is a low-end LB3 this week.
START: Deion Jones, Cleveland Browns, LB40
Cleveland’s LB room has been an ambiguous mess for FFIDP for good portions of the year… and we once again, have some semblance of clarity. It only took injuries to almost every other LB first (Anthony Walker, Sione Takitaki, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Jacob Phillips to name a few). But now, we have Deion Jones, the man standing above the rubble. This really is a matter of volume for Jones at this point and he appears to have it all. 88% in week 14 but now last week, he was the only LB to see over 30 total snaps (out of their 63 total). That type of solitary volume is hard to find and makes him a strong LB3 this week in their matchup against the Saints.
SIT (fade): Jamin Davis, Washington Commanders, LB32
Jamin Davis has done a solid job taking on the lead role since Cole Holcomb’s injury for the Commanders in week 7. And in the last 3 weeks he has looked like a better FFIDP lineup option as well racking up an average of 9.7 combined tackles in that span. However, at this point in the season, we do have the luxury of understanding what a matchup can mean to a positional group and as such, the San Francisco 49ers, are one of the worst matchups for a LB. If you want to take a look at some of the data, I strongly recommend checking out @moncal on Twitter. He does a wonderful job capturing this information and sharing it out there. For this week, the 49ers offer the worst expected LB performances over season average. This makes Davis a strong fade for me and I would consider starting him if you truly have “no other options” in that LB3/4 range.
START: Tariq Woolen, Seattle Seahawks, DB34
Tariq Woolen has been an amazing story this year for what was supposed to be a rebuilding Seattle Seahawks. They yet again, find a 5th round corner, to come into the league and deliver from year 1. Now, what he can do for his career, we have to wait and see. But for week 16, against the Kansas City Chiefs, this is a good FFIDP matchup. The Chiefs are the 3rd highest passing team with 551 pass attempts, they have a QB in Mahomes that loves to make difficult throws, that lead to turnover worthy plays, which he has 15 of on the year (tied for 13th worst) and this has resulted in 11 interceptions (tied for 3rd worst). Woolen has already shown a penchant for play-making with his 6 INTs and 6 PDs. Woolen is high-end DB3 for me with DB2 upside.
START: Jason Pinnock, New York Giants, DB48
Jason Pinnock has stepped with the injury to Xavier McKinney and coach Daboll has already confirmed that McKinney will not be back this week and is out against the Vikings. This gives him the full-time, albeit as the deep safety primarily for the Giants. However, the Vikings are one of the more pass-happy teams in the NFL and aren’t shy about it. Cousins is 4th on total pass attempts at 544 and I would expect more of the same this week. What is more important, is that Cousins leads the NFL in attempts (127) in the intermediate area of the field (10-19 yards downfield) which is a wonderful area to get that deep safety involved! Pinnock is a low-ceiling play this week, but has a strong floor for a full-time safety and should be closer to a high-end DB4 with DB3 upside.
SIT (fade): Donovan Wilson, Dallas Cowboys, DB10
Dallas has had a three-headed approach to safety most of this year with Donovan Wilson, Jayron Kearse, and Malik Hooker. This has led to some up and down usage at times, but when all are healthy, Wilson is generally seeing the lower snaps of the three. Along that note, Kearse and Wilson are generally taking on the “box” role but Kearse is doing it with greater frequency as well as more snaps in the slot too. With a very important game against division rival, the Eagles, you would expect a big performance from the defense. But I have reservations about Donovan Wilson as a DB1. It would take a setback for Jayron Kearse to not play to have this level of confidence. But Kearse did a routine of Limited Practice, Limited, Full Participant and played a full complement of snaps last week and is trending exactly the same this week. I have Wilson close to a DB3 this week.
