IDP Start/Sit: Week 14

Updated: December 8th 2022

Here we are. Week 14. The final week of the fantasy regular season (in most leagues). Hopefully the journey up to this point with me has been a helpful and informative one, but we are not done yet! Let’s get these teams into the playoffs and bring home some of those sweet, sweet IDP fantasy football league championships!!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show for them are what is the ECR over from Fantasy Pros for this week.

WEEK 13 RECAP
DL:
Start: Uchenna Nwosu (2 sacks! 4 solos, TFL, 3 QB hits, FF. What a performance!!)
Start: Leonard Floyd (1 assist, 1 QB hit. What a whiff, but he played 94% snaps, process felt good, just didn’t come show in the stat sheet for IDP.)

Sit: Matthew Judon (2 solos, 1 assist, 1 QB hit, FR. The fumble recovery kind of saved his week and those are very fluky stats to count on.)


LB:

Start: Chad Muma (1.5 sacks, 7 solos, 4 assist, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits. An amazing week for the rookie, but he did depart with an ankle injury. Pay attention to that moving forward)

Start: Christian Harris (2 solos, 4 assist, PD. Played 100% snaps coming back from his injury, could for long-term, not great this week though.)

Sit: Lavonte David (1 sack, 10 solos, 2 assists, 2 TFLs, 1 QB hit. This is apparently what happens when you suggest to sit an IDP legend!)

 

DB:
Start: Rodney McLeod (5 solos, 1 assist, TFL, PD. A very consistent production from McLeod, just like we thought.)

Start: DeAndre Houston-Carson (3 solos, 2 assists, TFL. Not terrible, but would have liked to see a little bit more to call this a “win” this week.)

Sit: John Johnson III (1 assist, INT, PD. Week was saved by the interception, which was a wonky one if you watch the replay, but he made it nonetheless.)

 

START: Haason ReddickPhiladelphia Eagles, DL30

Haason in his first year with Philadelphia answered some of the questions about whether he was purely a volume play, or he could produce numbers with other talented DL plays around him. Questions answered and he has delivered on most fronts this season. Reddick has played 70% of the total snaps so far this season which gives him the foundation for production. He has also delivered a strong 13.5% pass-rush pressure rate for the year. Now he has a great matchup this week against the New York Giants. They have allowed a 26% pressure rate on the season (7th worst this season), and an 18% sack conversion rate (4th worst this season). Reddick should be a high-end DL2 this week.

START: Josh AllenJacksonville Jaguars, DL36

Josh Allen is a big-name edge rusher who hasn’t quite filled up the stat sheet the way some had hoped he would, with only 3.0 sacks. But he has been delivering some foundational things we like to see. He is seeing 77% of the snaps for his defense which are very strong numbers for an edge rusher. He has 44 pressures total on the season for a respectable 12.8% pass-rush pressure rate. Next up for Josh Allen is the Titans and their offensive line. They have allowed a 30% pressure rate on the season (worst in the league) and a 16% sack conversion rate (8th worst in the league) and should help Josh Allen find a way back into strong IDP production. Allen his a good DL2 this week.

SIT: Jerry HughesHouston Texans, DL23

Jerry Hughes has been one of the great stories for IDP (and NFL) production this year. 8 sacks and but only 16 tackles, Hughes is much more of an boom/bust play this season and has been delivering on that upside quite a bit this year. In his lower snaps, 61%, his upside can be limited. Pairing that with his matchup against the Cowboys this week, he is less than ideal. They are allowing an average pressure rate of 25% (tied for 12 best in the league) but are only allowing a 6% sack conversion rate (best in the league). Hughes is a DL4 this week.

START: Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahCleveland Browns, LB31

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has taken the clear lead of the Cleveland Browns LB room with snap percentages of 80%, 95%, 96%, and 78%. Last week’s dip might seem a little concerning, but with Sione Takitaki out for the season, JOK is winning this war of attrition right now. He has seen his average solo tackles jump up from 4 to 5 over this increased stretch and a 1/2 assisted tackle per game up as well. He has also racked up 3 TFLs, QB hit, 3 PDs and a FF over this 4-game stretch. JOK is taking advantage of his opportunity and delivering for IDP. Between the snaps being there, the play-making (that we were all hoping from him this year), and a matchup against Cincinnati whose offense has been very strong over the last 5 games, JOK feels like a strong LB2.

START: Jaylon SmithNew York Giants, LB58

Jaylon Smith has gone from a high-end round 2 pick for the Cowboys, to a big 2nd contract, to cut, to a 2nd chance with the New York Giants. He has made the most out of it this year taking clear control of the LB room and has delivered a nice floor for IDP in the last few weeks. He has played 71% of the snaps for the defense in his 9 games with the Giants and has seen great usage in his last three, 74%, 91%, and 87%. He is averaging just under 7 tackles per game over his last three as well. With Dallas as the matchup this week, Jaylon Smith should see strong usage in defense of the Cowboys’ run game and their 7th best, 68 plays per game over the last 3 weeks. Smith has strong upside as a low-end LB3 this week.

SIT (INJURY): David Long Jr.Tennessee Titans, LB19

David Long Jr. has been a consistent target for me this year to have on my IDP teams, so sitting him feels counterintuitive. However, this is specifically related to the hamstring injury he just suffered. Soft tissue injuries can linger and as such, the Titans could be very slow in bringing him back in hopes of making sure he is available for the NFL playoffs. Long was already a DNP (did not participate) for Wednesday’s practice which is a big negative for him suiting up this week. If you are in a tight spot, Dylan Cole looks like the next man up behind him as he took 77% of the snaps once Long went out. You should be planning for life without Long this week and possible at least next.

START: Rayshawn JenkinsJacksonville Jaguars, DB33

Rayshawn Jenkins has been a model of consistency this season for IDP. Since week 3 this year, he has never been under the 5 tackle mark, has produced 9 passes defensed (a more indicative stat then INTs), and has even added 2 FFs in the last 3 weeks. Looking just at his consistent numbers without any major statistical marker jumping off the screen, he would feel in the right spot as a DB3 this week. But his usage in heavy run-game script against Detroit (39 box snaps!!) makes me believe he will be there a bunch this week against the Derrick Henry-led Titans and their running attack. You should consider Jenkins more of a low-end DB2 this week as he is in a situation to rack up a nice tackle floor.

START: Sauce GardnerNew York Jets, DB37

Sauce Gardner has made a splash in his rookie season and really made a name for himself as a top name in the CB discussion in the NFL. This week, I think he will be producing for IDP purposes as well. This week he gets the Buffalo Bills and presumably Stefon Diggs. And we need to look no further than last week to see how the Bills are not afraid of attacking a team’s top corner. Jonathan Jones had 11 targets that he led to 9 receptions against him, but also 6 solos and 2 assists. For Sauce this should mean he has a strong floor based on tackle opportunities if he gets targeted with big-play upside for PDs and/or an INT. Sauce has also only missed 4 tackles all season (7.3%), so you can count on the opportunities he does get. Gardner is a high-end DB3 with strong DB2 upside!

SIT (FADE): Talanoa HufangaSan Francisco 49ers, DB12

Talanoa Hufanga has been a great story this year the way he burst on to the scene early this year with some big tackles, big plays, and big hair! (How can you not love this guy’s lettuce?!?) So how can we “sit” this guy you say? If you feel you can’t bench him, perhaps the best we can do then, is at least lower expectations. Hufanga has seen his box/DL snap alignment slowly trend downwards a bit and play much more in the FS role. The 49ers don’t have a strong need for him up when Warner/Greenlaw are healthy and productive. Queue Tom Brady and the Buccaneers this week, Mr. Brady loves to utilize the quick passing game more than anybody in the league with one of the fastest times-to-throw (2nd lowest with at least 100 attempts, 2.29) and throwing more pass attempts within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage (252) than any other QB this feels like a game for Greenlaw and Warner to deliver while Hufanga will become more big-play dependent. I would consider Hufanga a low-end DB2 this week and plan your roster accordingly.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 8

Updated: October 27th 2022

Week 7 is in the rearview mirror and we have a smaller amount of byes this week, but we still want to dig into our lineups and find those ideal matchups, positive or negative trends, or some potential buys / sells. Week 7’s starts and sits played out pretty well for the most part, and we should have a newer crowd joining in now with our recent inclusion with the IDP Show! For those who are not familiar, with this article, we are trying to identify some of those fringe players or deeper plays for our IDP lineups. With that brief reset, let’s get ourselves into week 8 with this week’s callouts.

WEEK 7 RECAP
DL:
Start: Dorance Armstrong (1 solo, 2 assist, 1 sack, FR, TFL, QB hit)


Sit: Emmanuel Ogbah (Inactive, hopefully you pivoted to have a backup)


LB:

Start: Nicholas Morrow (3 solos, 2 assists)

Sit: Cody Barton (5 solos)

 

DB:
Start: Deshon Elliott (5 solos, 4 assist, TFL. Snaps trending down, pay attention)

Sit: Justin Simmons (3 solos)

 

START: Kayvon Thibodeaux, New York Giants, DL31

Since returning from injury, Thibodeaux has seen consistent usage in this Giants defense. Since Week 3, he’s averaged 77% of snaps, including 84.3% in the last 3 games. He’s also seeing unique utilization and pre-snap alignment in Wink Martindale’s defense, which is thriving with blue-chip talents like Thibodeaux. The pressures have been there too, with 13 over the past 4 games. However, those pressures have only resulted in 1 sack. While the conversion rate of 7.6% is disappointing, keep in mind Thibodeaux just finished his 5th NFL game. What should be encouraging at this point is the number of pressures because that tells us: the sacks are coming. And there’s room to improve that pressure rate, which has been 10.7% over the last 4 games. Week 7 looks like a favorable matchup against Seattle, which allows a slightly below-average pressure rate, but the conversion-to-sack rate is one of the highest so far this year. And with the amount of pressure that the Giants have been bringing this year, it looks like a great time to fire up Thibodeaux!

START: Rasheem Green, Houston Texans, DL51

Green doesn’t have perfect usage, but it is still ideal as a baseline. His snap percentage over the last 5 games has been 57%, good for 38 snaps a game. The Texans have put Greenard on IR this past week creating a bigger need from the DL rotation. He has shown increased success in the run game in the past weeks (73.2 week 4, 89.2 week 5) along with a good 11.2% pass-rush pressure rate. The upcoming matchup with the Titans offer two paths to success with Tennessee’s current QB situation. Tannehill plays and the Titans 31st ranked offensive line in terms of pressure rate allowed. Green should find a way to get after an injured Tannehill with the favorable matchup and previous success. Now if Malik Willis is taking snaps, you might think he is too mobile for Green to be effective. But, the real catch is, younger, mobile QBs they tend to hold on to the ball much longer in an attempt to make plays or due to inexperience reading a defense. This leads to increased sack opportunities in its own right. Green is an upside play, but this is a great week to go for it!

SIT: Chandler Jones, Las Vegas Raiders, DL38

Chandler Jones is a well-known IDP name for those who have played, however, his time might be past now. Chandler converted his first sack (only a 1/2 as well) this week. He has had below average pass-rush pressure rate at 7.6%. This week he gets a below average matchup against New Orleans. They are allowing only a 23% pressure rate (tied 9th best) and 14% sack conversion (tied 14th best). On top of the poor IDP performances, his PFF grades are some of the lowest of his long career. The final kicker to this? He is doing this while Maxx Crosby is dominating and drawing almost all of the attention along that defensive front too. It might be a time to move on from all of our shares of Chandler Jones if you are still holding.

START: Quay Walker, Green Bay Packers, LB30

Quay has come on strong for a rookie playing an average of 45 snaps per game and 76% of the total snaps with De’Vondre Campbell entrenched as the LB1. He has found a way to be efficient with his time with a very good 16% tackle efficiency, which at this point should be indicative of what we should expect to see most games this year. Even with a less than ideal snap count below 80% or being closer to 90%, the Buffalo Bills are the matchup this week and are top 10 in plays run this year as well as top 10 in passing plays ran. Quay has shown a greater strength in coverage while needing some work in run defense. The Bills are an ideal matchup for Quay to produce numbers this week. And we will see the Packers defense in this matchup once more in this article. #foreshadowing

START: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Cleveland Browns, LB27

The Cleveland Browns have had a very ambiguous linebacker room for most of this year. Things only got more unclear with the signing of Deion Jones. However, Jacob Phillips injury (pectoral, season-ending) should set us up for the rest of the year. Jones seems to be the one (and has the experience of it) to wear the green dot for play calling and see close to 100% of snaps, if not this next, then the following. Who steps up into that LB2 role should JOK. He saw his highest snap count this past week, one of his best graded games per PFF this year, and made a beautiful punch out for the game to keep Cleveland fighting in the game. The biggest challenge to snaps would be the next LB in Sione Takitaki and his usage would align more with Jones leaving JOK’s snaps safe for him. JOK may not be a 100% snap player this season, but he will see enough snaps to be relevant. Finally, his matchup this week against Cincinnati and their significant uptick in passing rate in all game scripts, bode well for JOK to be involved quite a bit on Monday night.

SIT: Tae Crowder, New York Giants, LB68

Tae Crowder was the guy to start the year with 3 out of the first 4 weeks having 100% of the snaps. The last two weeks we saw it drop under 70% and with Landon Collins getting acclimated more, Crowder’s snaps are even more in danger. This alongside his bottom of the barrel performances per PFF grading (29.4 overall) Crowder’s job does not look very secure. He additionally has missed 11 tackles already this season too. He is someone that you should be looking to move on from for the season and if anyone sees value, try and move on.

START: Adrian Amos, Green Bay Packers, DB50

Adrian Amos has had great usage this year, outside of week 4’s injury against the Patriots, with 100% outside of that. And his sweet spot alignment (box, slot, DL) has been up over the last 3 weeks at 59%!! This is reflected in his production uptick too, 20 combined tackles, TFL, QB hit in the last 3 games. These games have also seen more defensive snaps versus some earlier games, but that should still be the case this week as the Packers take on the Buffalo Bills Sunday night. This should be a 65+ snap game and that combined with the ideal and increased sweet spot usage, Amos is a strong play this week.

START: Eric Rowe, Miami Dolphins, DB45

This is one of the worst reasons for someone to move up the board, but with Brandon Jones season-ending ACL injury, Eric Rowe is next in line to play more snaps. Eric was already cutting into Jones’ usage in smaller bits when they were both healthy and active this season. Miami’s defense loves to utilize their safeties up in the box and blitz them with good frequency too. This is a nice pick up and play option for streaming or taking the big upside swing for a sack or turnover (assuming your league has big play scoring).

SIT: Kyle Dugger, New England Patriots, DB27

Kyle Dugger was an IDP fantasy darling his first two years in the league and has made some big plays already this year (59 yard fumble return for TD in week 5, INT and 2 PDs in week 6). However, this season has been plagued with some injury and with the Belichick-ien way rotating defensives players, Adrian Phillips, Devin McCourty, Jabrill Peppers, and Kyle Dugger the key players in this conversation, missing time is not a great way to try and lock in your spot. Limited usage combined with the matchup of the Jets this week, who are only running 54 plays per game offensively means a very small pool of opportunities. Now Dugger can make big plays for sure, but the injury limitations, the reduced snap count, and overall limited chances against the Jets, let’s give Dugger a week to rest on your fantasy bench.

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