Week 2 Street FA Report

Updated: September 13th 2022

Welcome back to year five (!) of the street FA report. Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

 

Add of the Week

Jeff Wilson, RB, SF (Owned 60%)

Week 1: 9 Car/22 yards, 2 Rec/8 yards

As with every week 1 there is always one big ticket free agent, usually at running back, that everyone will put in most of their remaining cap space to acquire. This usually occurs because of a big injury to a starter, a mutled backfield becoming more transparent after pre-season or a player having a big breakout week 1. Jeff Wilson is the beneficiary of what is expected to be at least a two (2) month absence from Elijah Mitchell in San Francisco. The 49ers’ backfield is well known as one that fantasy managers want to have a piece of and with Mitchell out of commission, Trey Sermon recently released, and rookie Tyrion Davis-Price inactive for week 1 this leaves Wilson as the de facto number one option in San Francisco. Like Cordarrelle Patterson last year, Wilson could become a staple for many team’s lineups if his expected role continues for half of the remaining season.

Suggested Bid: $7-10,000,000

 

RB Adds

Dontrell Hilliard, RB, TEN (Owned 34%)

Week 1: 2 Car/8 yards, 3 Rec/61 yards, 2 TD

Realistically will I be surprised when Hilliard plays less than 10 snaps and sees two (2) touches in week 2? No. But there is a chance that Mike Vrabel is looking to offload some of Derrick Henry’s usage so that they can maintain his health throughout a 17-game season. If nothing else Hilliard should see more passing down snaps which increases his value in PPR leagues where a handful of checkdown passes could lead to a steady 3-5 targets per week. Scoring two (2) touchdowns like in week 1 is definitely above the ceiling for what is to be expected from Hilliard, but if Henry was to be sidelined at any point this season, Hilliard would be a great stash to have.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

Jerick McKinnon, RB, KC (Owned 37.5%)

Week 1: 4 Car/22 yards, 3 Rec/27 yards

There was a lot of discussion this pre-season about the emergence of Isiah Pacheco and his threat to Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Kansas City. While CEH scored his two (2) touchdowns and Pacheco came in and scored his own in cleanup duties, Jerick McKinnon actually co-led with CEH for total offensive snap shares at 39 percent. Ownership of all three (3) running backs are a must at this point until more is known about how these usages will translate into games where KC is not running away from the start. If you are missing out on the other two (2) runners, or want to take a 50/50 handcuff to your other shares, add McKinnon before week 2 and see where their game plan goes.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

WR Add

Kyle Philips, WR, TEN (Owned 36%)

Week 1: 6 Rec/66 yards

There was a lot of buzz about rookie wide receivers heading into the 2022 season but after week 1 the biggest rookie surprise performance is Kyle Philips. A fifth-round selection, Philips has shot up the depth charts to be the Titans primary slot receiver and in week 1 actually saw more snaps (31) than first-round selection Treylon Burks (24). He has had nine (9) targets to lead the Titans. All this to say that Philips was considered a Hunter Renfrew clone that could be a long term stash for 2023 and beyond. It appears that his development has accelerated even past anyone’s best estimates and he should be rostered as a suitable PPR flex option going forward.

Suggested Bid: $1,500,000

TE Add

Tyler Conklin, TE, NYJ (Owned 23%)

Week 1: 4 Rec/14 yards, 1 TD

Tight end usage is usually the key to finding sustained success at the position and while some may be quick to jump on OJ Howard with his two (2) touchdowns in week 1, he only played on 12 snaps behind both Brevin Jordan (42) and Pharoh Brown (46). Instead, look to someone like Tyler Conklin who played on 92 percent of the Jets’ offensive snaps and saw seven (7) targets. Honorable mention goes to Taysom Hill who has now been designated as a tight end in default RSO leagues meaning that if you want to get tricky with the position he could offer boom/bust weeks that he is featured in multiple positions on the field.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

 

Sleeper Add (<25%)

Olamide Zaccheaus, WR, ATL (Owned 10%)

Week 1: 4 Rec/49 yards

Rightfully so, the only pieces of the Atlanta Falcons offense that people wanted to roster in 2022 was Kyle Pitts and Drake London. There was not a lot of confidence that much else would be able to have consistent fantasy production to afford holding a bench spot for. While he may not be a viable starter for many leagues there is likely no option with under 25 percent ownership that has a better expected target opportunity than Olamide Zaccheaus. He will hover around the WR5/6 range for most weeks but in deeper leagues he is worth a stash to use during the heavy bye weeks.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

FA Expectancy: Latavius Murray

Updated: July 23rd 2017

Throughout the offseason, I will be preparing a collection of articles that will focus on free agents and trade candidates. The articles will discuss the player in question, and what the move does to their value, as well as what their landing spot means for their new and old teams.

Latavius Murray – RB, Minnesota Vikings

It is hard to find anyone that the fantasy community is more down on than Latavius Murray in 2017. After letting Adrian Peterson walk the Vikings signed Murray to a 3 year/ $15million deal to theoretically lead their backfield on the first two downs. Many question what Murray can really offer his new team as he was never able to carry the full workload in Oakland in 2016. His move from a top 5 rated Raiders offensive line to a bottom 5 rated Vikings doesn’t really help his cause either. But he is technically the lead back (as of writing this article before the NFL Draft) so he should get a fair share of the touches. Is he a sneaky buy-low candidate?

Tyler Buecher of NumberFire looked at how penalties, specifically pass interference calls, can affect the season end results for fantasy numbers and whether some players were negatively and positively affected because of them. His results can be found here. For running backs, these were the players that received the most benefits from the calls.

Player

1st-and-Goal Penalty TDs

Total TDs

Fantasy Finish

LeGarrette Blount

5

18

RB9

Latavius Murray

4

12

RB13

Lamar Miller

3

6

RB20

Melvin Gordon

3

12

RB7

Devonta Freeman

2

13

RB6

Doug Martin

2

3

RB54

Ezekiel Elliott

2

16

RB2

Matt Asiata

2

6

RB37

 

Murray benefited the second most from pass interferences calls with four of his twelve rushing touchdowns coming from an interference call leading to 1st and goal from the 1-yard line. Since we know that touchdowns fluctuate season-to-season it wouldn’t be surprising to see a decline in his totals, especially with a team that will have less frequent trips inside the red zone. Ironically, Matt Asiata is also on this list which suggests that the Vikings are indeed a candidate for goal line touchdowns to regress next season.

So what does this mean for Vikings players?

The short answer is not much. Murray may or may not be the bruiser back heading into 2017 with Jerrick McKinnon continuing his role as the change-of-pace and satellite receiving back. I expect the Vikings to take a running back in the draft to try and groom into their featured runner once they move on from Murray. If there are any Bishop Sankey truthers still left out there this might be his last opportunity to be a usable NFL running back in case Murray falters or more likely gets injured. In really deep leagues Sankey could be a dart throw that pays off for a couple of games if he shows that he can ward off any potential incoming rookies should Murray be absent from the lineup.

I guess you could call this an upgrade for Sam Bradford who had zero options for handing the ball off last season. It’s unlikely that any coordinator will fear the run game though so the Vikings should expect aggressive blitzes and plenty of nickel and dime packages to cover the receivers and tight end. Murray’s presence could have a negative impact on the receivers scoring opportunities inside the 10 yard line as there were nine passing touchdowns that came within 10 yards of the end zone in 2016 (4 to Kyle Rudolph, and 1 each to McKinnon, Stefon Diggs, Jarius Wright, Cordarrelle Patterson and Adam Thielen).

So what is Murray’s Value?

As previously stated the Murray stock is at an all-time low so if you were ever going to get in cheap now is the time. He’s been moved around in my home league four times already this offseason and I have had several other offers in other leagues with him as a throw in. As Bernard Faller pointed out in his article, “Read the Fine Print” while Murray’s contract may be for 3 years it really works out to be a 1 year deal with additional team option years added on. He essential could be cut at the start of next season and save the Vikings $5.1million in cap space. This is why I expect the team to invest and develop a running back from this loaded class to then hand him the keys in 2018.

If Murray is available in your auction you should be able to get him dirt cheap as a 1-year rental player that could be used for decent matchups. Otherwise, unless Murray is on a steal of contract I wouldn’t value him for more than a third round pick. There are too many lottery ticket running backs that could increase their value by 2018 in the second or third round to settle for a low floor RB2/3 like Murray.

So what does this mean for the Raiders?

The Raiders have been linked to bringing the corpse of Marshawn Lynch back for weeks now and while playing behind that offensive line would give him some value I just don’t see it being worth it for real or fantasy purposes. Bringing in fresh legs from the draft would be the best option for the team and any player they select will see his rankings shoot up the rookie ADP rankings. DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard were nice waiver wire additions last year and they still hold value right now especially if a back isn’t selected by the end of day 2. However, Washington wasn’t a high selection either (5th Round) and Richard was an UDFA so the Raiders do not owe them anything for playing time. They are both savvy players to watch for in your auctions but don’t get carried away in a bidding war for mediocrity.


Make sure to continue to read more Free Agency Expectancy articles throughout the offseason to be prepared for your summer Auctions. Have a player that you want me to evaluate? Look for my polls to cast your vote or send me a message on Twitter @naandrews19.

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

The Unstable Stable

Updated: November 3rd 2016

Dynasty football and redraft football are nothing alike. What do I mean by that? Well, if we think of fantasy football in meteorological terms we can compare redraft to the Weather, a constantly changing natural phenomenon that so-called “experts” seem to predict no better than you and I. It can be summarized perfectly in this tweet by @CommishTalkBlog. Does this sound like a familiar situation to some of your teams?

Bad RB Tweet

Now if we look at dynasty, it’s more like the Climate, where it takes time to change but there definitely a change nevertheless. Two years ago everyone was SURE Eddy Lacy was a top 5 running back for years to come. Now he might not even make it to a second contract; even if he does it’s not likely with the Packers. People always talk about players and their values as if it’s something that will remain the same year over year. I’ve been playing long enough to notice a one year wonder when I see one.

**Full disclosure I was once the guy in my draft that took Zac Stacy in the 3rd round of my 2014 redraft league**

I’ll admit when I make a mistake, Mr. David Johnson I’m sorry, but I would rather invest in something I know IS good versus paying for something that MIGHT BE great. RSO dynasty emphasizes these mistakes even more by having salaries attached to players. If you miss in a redraft you find a new guy next week on the wire. Miss in RSO, oh boy, you could have a very expensive placeholder on your bench for multiple years.

So here we are midway through the 2016 season and we’ve already had some new and old faces push their way into the fantasy limelight. But we need to think about the long term and with a decent class of talent coming in the way of rookies next year who can we expect to hold a grip on their team and who could be this year’s Zac Stacy? I’m going to go through five (5) teams that I think are likely to draft a running back early next year. I’m not going to list the obvious teams (Patriots and Colts) instead focusing on teams with RB situations that seem stable now but could be very different come May next year.

  • Miami DolphinsMiami Dolphins – Jay Ajayi

Wait what? Nothing says stability like a guy who gets 200 rushing yards in back to back games right? Remember that before the season started this was the same team that tried to sign away C.J. Anderson from the Broncos before he was brought back. Then they went and drafted Kenyan Drake in the 4th round and then added a broken Arian Foster because they still weren’t sure of their starting running back. Ajayi had severe knee issues coming into the league and it was a concern about how long of a career he could have (which is why he fell all the way to the 5th round). He may have hit his max return value right now and if you can sell him for any number of more proven RBs I would be smashing that “accept” button. It would not surprise me if they took an RB before the end of day 2 of the draft in 2017.

  • Minnesota VikingsMinnesota – Adrian Peterson, Jerrick McKinnon

While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see AP moving on after the end of the season people are ready to move McKinnon right into the starting role for 2017. As someone who both owns and owned McKinnon in RSO, I was high on what he could do as the pass catching threat next to AP. Sadly, he still hasn’t been able to shake off Matt Asiata for the lead role after AP’s injury so what makes you think that he could keep an incoming rookie off the pedestal? The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the league and therefore I could easily see them being one of the first teams to take a running back off the board. Honestly, if they get their hands on any of the top four in the class (Fournette, Chubbs, Cook, or McCaffrey) that’s my early prediction for the 1.01 next year.

  • Philadelphia EaglesPhiladelphia Eagles – Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles, Wendell Smallwood

Doug Pederson found himself a quarterback in 2016. Many questioned his move up to number two for an unknown project player in Carson Wentz. Nobody is questioning him anymore but what Pederson really thrives with is a smart, shifty running back that can move the ball on the group and through the air. You look at his previous backs and you see shapeshifters like Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy and even all the way back to Brian Westbrook. Darren Sproles is the guy closest to those guys right now but he’s 33 years old and not in their long term plan. Smallwood seems more like a special teams player at this point and we can’t rely on Mathews to be healthy year over year. We could see a similar scenario with Mathews as his former running mate Demarco Murray is right now where they draft someone younger (Henry) and groom him behind the veteran before giving him the full load.

  • Pittsburgh SteelersPittsburgh Steelers – Le’Veon Bell

This one is less based on talent and more on circumstances. One of the best running backs in the league, Bell sure does come with his baggage. Suspended each of the last two seasons for substance abuse he is walking a very thin line in what is quickly becoming known as the “No Fun League”. Skeptics will be quick to remind me of the same problems that were clouding Ben Roethlisberger early in his career and he seems to have turned it around nicely under the management of the Rooney family. However, we’ve already seen glimpses of what Bell is expecting to be paid when his contract expires and while some teams may be more lenient to offer a troubled superstar a boatload of cash I don’t see the proud Steelers franchise being bullied into a contract. They did it when they let Mike Wallace walk to the Dolphins. Maybe they double down on their principles and draft an RB that could be leading the Steelers in the 2018 season.

  • Oakland RaidersOakland Raiders – Latavius Murray, DeAndre Washington

Some people might say that this is an obvious choice to be selecting a running back. But those are also likely the same people that said Murray was going to lose the job this year and Washington was going to be the starter by midseason. Well, we’re halfway through the season and save for a couple of games that he was injured Murray has held a strong lead in the depth chart rankings. That is not to say that it will remain the same next year. This year’s class of RBs had an obvious lack of depth behind Elliot, Henry and maybe now Booker. But next year is a whole different ball game and there may also be a couple of free agents (looking at Lacy) that could be available for the right price. If the Raiders are indeed moving to Las Vegas they may be looking to do the same as the Rams did and make a big splash before moving. They already have the young budding QB to WR combo. Jack Del Rio may be looking to add that final piece to his triumvirate.

More Analysis by Nick Andrews