The Watch List: Bowl Game Previews, Part IV
Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. During the college bowl season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. Note: times listed are Eastern.
Thursday, Dec. 28
Camping World Bowl, #22 Virginia Tech (9-3) vs. #19 Oklahoma State (9-3), 5:15 p.m. (ESPN)
- Virginia Tech: 65th scoring offense, 61st passing offense, 63rd rushing offense; 5th scoring defense, 21st passing defense, 16th rushing defense
- Oklahoma State: 3rd scoring offense, 1st passing offense, 43rd rushing offense; 86th scoring defense, 120th passing defense, 27th rushing defense
Six weeks ago it seemed that both of these teams could be destined for their conference championship games but late season losses to #5 Oklahoma and #10 Miami dashed those hopes. It’ll be an interesting strength vs strength matchup when Oklahoma State has the ball.
When Oklahoma State does have the ball, they often score. They average 46.3 points per game. Their lowest output of the season came against Texas with just 13 points but other than that they have scored 31+ in every game. Responsible for those points are QB Mason Rudolph, RB Justice Hill, WR James Washington and WR Marcell Ateman. Rudolph is one of my top 2018 rookie QBs for fantasy purposes (he’s big, good accuracy, typically limits mistakes and is a better runner than the stats show because of negative yardage from sacks). I profiled Rudolph twice this season, once in the preseason and once in Week 4 if you’d like to read more. I also discussed Washington in depth in Week 6 but to recap, he is a burner who was a high school track star. He caught 69 balls this year for 1,423 yards and 12 TDs. That works out to a 20.6 yards per reception average which was 10th in the FBS this season. Washington will be a Top 3 WR in most fantasy leagues this Spring. The other two offensive stars, Hill and Ateman, don’t get enough publicity. Hill is a second year starter as a sophomore and already has nearly 2,500 career yards; he improved as a pass catcher this year which allows him to stay on the field for more snaps. Ateman may just end up being the best pro player out of the group. He’s big at 6’4″ and 220lbs and uses that frame to high point the ball and fight for contested catches. Highlight reels can be misleading, but check out the string of catches he makes in this recent Youtube video from 1:22 to 1:45. Ateman won’t get drafted as high as Washington but he’ll be productive in the NFL if he keeps playing like that.
Unfortunately for Hokie fans, they will be without senior WR Cam Phillips in this one as he heals from a hernia. Phillips led the FBS in receptions early in the season and ended with a 71-964-7 line. He has had 40+ receptions in each of his four seasons which is great sustained productdion. He hasn’t been super productive as far as touchdowns go though (just 17) but he did have mediocre quarterback play for his first two seasons. That quarterback play has been decent this season with freshman Josh Jackson. Jackson has 2,743 yards, 19 TDs and 8 INTs, completes 60.3% of his passes and added 4 rushing TDs. There’s a drop off from Phillips to the team’s next receiver, freshman Sean Savoy (39-454-4), so I expect the offense to struggle. On defense, LB Tremaine Edmunds does not struggle. Edmunds is a two year starter who totaled 101 tackles, 14 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks this season. He also added 3 forced fumbles. Edmunds has been getting a lot of hype on Twitter lately so I think he’ll start moving up draft boards as people digest more film. Edmunds is WalterFootball.com’s 4th ranked OLB prospect so a first round pick is not out of the question but second round is more likely.
The Hokies defense is good but they won’t be able to stop Oklahoma State’s offense. Sure, they might slow them down and keep the Cowboys under 35 points but there’s no way Virginia Tech can match that with Phillips out. I originally was going VaTech but I’ve flipped. Prediction: Oklahoma State
Valero Alamo Bowl, #12 Stanford (9-4) vs. #15 TCU (10-3), 9 p.m. (ESPN)
- Stanford: 39th scoring offense, 98th passing offense, 32nd rushing offense; 29th scoring defense, 72nd passing defense, 73rd rushing defense
- TCU: 34th scoring offense, 59th passing offense, 52nd rushing offense; 12th scoring defense, 74th passing defense, 4th rushing defense
Between the Camping World Bowl at 5:15pm and the Alamo Bowl at 9:00pm, we are looking at a great doubleheader Thursday night with just enough time to sneak in a quick, late dinner with your significant other. Stanford may be ranked higher, likely because of Bryce Love love, but I think TCU is the stronger team. Both teams are coming off of conference championship losses so it’ll be interesting to see how they rebound.
Stanford started the season with Keller Chryst starting at quarterback with occasional appearances by freshman backup KJ Costello. Costello took over full-time in the November 4th game against Washington State and struggled (9-20, 105 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT). He has played better since but his stats are those of a game-manager rather than a game-winner. The game-winner for the Cardinal is Heisman runner-up Bryce Love. Love finished the season with 1,793 yards and 17 TDs. He battled through injuries but still managed to miss just one game. He’s a bit undersized but is still a workhorse with seven games of 20+ carries. He had eleven games of 100+ yards (the lone game he didn’t hit the century mark was against Washington State when he came in very questionable), including 263 and 301 yard games. I covered Love many times throughout the season as he moved up the Heisman ballot – my deepest dive was in Week 7. Love is currently my RB5 for 2018 rookies because I am a little concerned about his size and durability; I expect him to be a late 1st or early 2nd round rookie fantasy draft pick in 2018. On defense, Stanford is led by safety Justin Reid who had 92 tackles and 5 INTs in 2017. He was voted to the second team All-America team and was a first team PAC-12 selection. Reid will be a second round pick and will factor into IDP leagues as a rookie.
Per my research, TCU does not have any clear cut draft prospects, except maybe for senior LB Travin Howard. Instead, I’ll touch on a few offensive players who will make a difference in this game. First up is QB Kenny Hill. Hill is a former Texas A&M transfer who has started both years at TCU. He significantly improved his rate stats in 2017 (including completion percentage, passer rating, TD:INT ratio and yards per attempt) but was less of a factor as a runner this year. He still had 4 rushing TDs but that was significantly less than his 10 from 2016. RB Darius Anderson (768-8) is injured and may not play. In his place senior Kyle Hicks will get more carries. Hicks was a 1,000 yard rusher last season but saw a reduced role behind Anderson this season. My prediction for the player who most benefits from Anderson’s injury will be KR/WR KaVontae Turpin. Turpin is tiny (5’9″ and 153lbs) but a potential game breaker. In his career he has 17 career TDs: 1 passing, 2 rushing, 10 receiving, 3 returning punts and 1 returning kicks. He had seven touches (6 receptions, 1 punt return) and 91 all-purpose yards (39 receiving, 52 returning punts) against Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship; that was the most touches he had had in six games. I would expect a similar number of touches in the bowl game and bet he’ll score in some unexpected or spectacular way.
It’s hard picking against somebody of Bryce Love’s caliber but I’m taking the Horned Frogs. I think that TCU’s strong rush defense will keep Love under 150 yards which will be enough to win a close one. Prediction: TCU
Friday, Dec. 29
Belk Bowl, Wake Forest (7-5) vs. Texas A&M (7-5), 1 p.m. (ESPN)
- Wake Forest: 32nd scoring offense, 35th passing offense, 47th rushing offense; 62nd scoring defense, 104th passing defense, 93rd rushing defense
- Texas A&M: 44th scoring offense, 65th passing offense, 74th rushing offense; 81st scoring defense, 67th passing defense, 65th rushing defense
The biggest storyline surrounding either of these teams is surely FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher leaving Tallahassee for College Station. Jimbo won’t be coaching in the bowl game, that duty will fall to special teams coach Jeff Banks, but I’m sure his presence will be felt.
Wake Forest started the season strong with four straight wins, three over eventual bowl teams, but went on to lose five of their last eight. Their crowning victory in the second half of the season came against #19 North Carolina State who could have tied Clemson for the division lead if it weren’t for the Wake Forest loss. Wake Forest’s senior QB John Wolford had the best season of his career in 2017. He threw for 2,792 yards, 25 TDs and just 6 INTs. What is most encouraging when looking at his stats is the huge increase in efficiency this year. Wolford is undersized at 6’1″ and 200lbs (it’s always a red flag when somebody weighs in exactly at 200lbs, surely he’s less than that). I don’t think his that quick but he is productive as a runner with 615 yards and 10 TDs. Wake’s most explosive player, WR Greg Dortch is injured and out for the bowl which is a shame. Dortch set a school record with 4 TDs against Louisville. I watched his highlights from that game and he’s like a punt returner whenever he gets the ball in the open field: fast, quick cuts, sets up blockers. I’m looking forward to watching more of him next year.
Hot take alert: Texas A&M isn’t even as good as their 7-5 record indicates. They did not beat a ranked opponent all season (in three tries) and their three wins over Power 5 teams were all just by one score. The Aggie offense is paced by WR Christian Kirk. Kirk first caught my eye in the preseason while writing my SEC preview. Kirk is very fast, sub 4.40 speed, and is great when he has the ball in his hands. Since many of his receptions are at or behind the line of scrimmage, I question his route running and ability to get open at the NFL level; but, as long as the team can scheme for him with screens and drag routes across the field he’ll succeed because of his running after the catch. Kirk’s value as an NFL player is insulated by his return prowess. He has 7 career return TDs and if he qualified with two more returns he would have led the FBS in punt return average (21.9 vs the leader who has 19.5) again in 2017, something he did in both 2015 and 2016. Kirk will be an early second round rookie pick in 2018 so keep an eye on him.
One last note on the Aggies, take a look at their offensive and defensive rankings – they are no better than 44th in any category. Of the twenty teams covered in this preview, all but three have a unit ranked 43rd or better: Kentucky, Utah State and Texas A&M. Jimbo will surely shake things up next season but that won’t help in the Belk Bowl. Prediction: Wake Forest
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, Kentucky (7-5) vs. #21 Northwestern (9-3), 4:30 p.m. (ESPN)
- Kentucky: 87th scoring offense, 100th passing offense, 58th rushing offense; 80th scoring defense, 113th passing defense, 60th rushing defense
- Northwestern: 55th scoring offense, 51st passing offense, 71st rushing offense; 19th scoring defense, 100th passing defense, 9th rushing defense
If you told me you were watching a Kentucky vs Northwestern matchup in December, I would probably guess you were watching basketball not football because historically these are two weaker Power 5 programs. Kentucky is playing in their second consecutive bowl while Northwestern’s streak is at three so both have found recent success under their current coaches. As far as this season goes, Northwestern is on an impressive seven game winning streak which includes a win over #16 Michigan State. Conversely, Kentucky lost their last two (both by nearly 30 points) and three of the last four.
Kentucky has two players that interest me after doing some research. The first is sophomore RB Benjamin (Benny) Snell. Snell set a number of Kentucky freshman records last year and was named a freshman All-American by the Football Writer’s Association of America. In that freshman season he rushed for 1,039 yards and 13 TDs. In 2017, Snell added 70 carries and managed to top 1,300 yards and scored 18 TDs. He also became a slightly larger factor in the passing game (10 receptions vs 2). Snell’s per-carry average fell in 2017 but it’s good to see that he has held up (he’s 5’11” and 223lbs which is a good size for a running back) without any serious injury. On defense, SS Mike Edwards could be a mid-round draft pick if he declares early. Phil Steele had him ranked as the #9 draft eligible SS in the preseason and NFLDraftScout.com has him ranked in the same spot in his 2019 draft class. Since 2010, there were 17 safeties drafted between the 4th and 6th round that compare similarly to his size; there were also four safeties drafted higher but that’d be a reach for Edwards based on my limited research. I watched some 2016 highlights of Edwards and noted his ball tracking and good form on a number of his tackles. Edwards has 228 career tackles and 8 INTs so he has been productive, just not at an elite level.
Wildcats QB Clayton Thorson will be best served by staying on campus for his senior season but I have seen some 2018 draft hype for him on Twitter. The positives: he’s tall at 6’4″, is a good runner, has a lot of experience as a third year starter and improved his completion percentage year-over-year. I watched tape of Thorson from last year’s Pinstripe Bowl and I had mixed feelings. I believe Thorson has the requisite “arm talent” for the NFL but he gets sacked too often and seems to make a lot of one-read throws. Regarding the sacks, in 2017 Thorson was sacked the 13th most in the FBS and in 2016 he was sacked the 3rd most. He hasn’t missed a game for Northwestern but all of those hits must add up eventually. Northwestern’s best prospect is RB Justin Jackson. Jackson is a true three-down back who averages 3.12 receptions per game over the last two seasons. Jackson has also rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of his four seasons, the biggest total coming in 2016 with 1,524 yards. Jackson lost carries this year to freshman backup Jeremy Larkin but he still managed 1,154 yards. Jackson is quick and probably best suited for a zone-blocking scheme where he’s not plowing into the line head first. He’ll probably start his career as a third down, situational back but I don’t think it’ll be long before he earns more touches. The third round is probably the best case scenario and he’s a steal if he makes it midway through the fourth.
Despite the strength of the two lead running backs, this one will probably come down to the passing game due to how poor the passing defenses are. Thorson is superior so I’ll go with Northwestern. Prediction: Northwestern
Arizona Bowl, New Mexico State (6-6) vs. Utah State (6-6), 5:30 p.m. (CBSSN)
- New Mexico State: 56th scoring offense, 4th passing offense, 124th rushing offense; 87th scoring defense, 78th passing defense, 64th rushing defense
- Utah State: 45th scoring offense, 71st passing offense, 56th rushing offense; 70th scoring defense, 16th passing defense, 117th rushing defense
I’ll be honest, it’s hard to say much of anything positive regarding a bowl matchup featuring two 6-6 mid-majors after we’ve had a number of Top 25 matchups. I’m tempted to do as my mother taught me, “if you don’t have anything nice to say don’t say anything at all,” but I know you are here for some hard-hitting analysis.
Surprisingly, this isn’t the first time this season that I have written about New Mexico State. In Week 11, I shined a spotlight on Aggies RB Larry Rose III. I observed that Rose has good lateral and straight line speed and his explosiveness. Unfortunately, he’s playing on a weak team (just 14 career wins as a four year starter) so his opportunities to shine have been few; he’s also dealt with a number of injuries, including a sports hernia and a knee. Rose’s best attribute is his pass catching ability: he has 49 receptions for 474 yards and 2 TDs this year. He probably doesn’t get drafted but it’s a name to monitor in training camp in case he catches on somewhere. Speaking of four year starters with an injury history, QB Tyler Rogers threw for 3,825 yards, 26 TDs and 16 INTs this season. He improved his rate stats in 2017 but was featured less frequently as a ball carrier. His top target is 6’6″ JUCO transfer Jaleel Scott. Scott is a red zone threat with 5 of his 8 TDs coming from inside the twenty.
After researching Utah State, I’m honestly surprised that head coach Matt Wells still has a job. He took over for Gary Anderson after a big 11-2 season and subsequently won 19 games over his next two years at the helm. In the three years since, he has just 15 combined wins. Maybe he has some dirt on the athletic director? Throughout the season, Wells has rotated quarterback snaps between Kent Myers and Jordan Love. Combined they have about 2,500 passing yards, 16 TDs and 13 INTs. The defense is led by junior LB Suliasi Tamaivena. Tamaivena had 109 tackles and 3 sacks in his first season at Utah State. He had a rough road to Logan and FBS football, which included a junior college stop and academic issues that kept him from joining Washington State. He’s probably too old to be considered as a draft prospect but he’s a good story of perseverance nonetheless.
I don’t know enough about either team to make a truly informed decision about this one but since I like Larry Rose, I’ll go with his squad. Prediction: New Mexico State
Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…
- Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
- Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
- Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
- Draft history: drafthistory.com
- Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
- Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
- Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty
Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.
