Week 15 Deep Lineup Considerations

By Bernard Faller

Updated: December 14th 2017

We are in that time of year where lineup decisions might literally determine if you win a championship or not. Many teams need help finding replacements for flex spots due to a variety of reasons including injuries. Below you will find a list of names which provides deep starting options and likely have not been consistently used for your RSO team throughout the year. None of these players are “league winners” but each has good matchups over the next two weeks and the opportunity to be a quality start for your desperate team.

Quarterback

Blake Bortles

The game plan worked very well in Jacksonville this season with the team primarily relying on their defense and emphasizing running the ball to minimize Bortles’ involvement. The results have been solid as Bortles improved across the board this season compared to last year’s debacle. He played very well the last two weeks, albeit against a Seattle defense decimated by injuries on the backend and an awful Indianapolis pass defense. Bortles also gets nice matchups against a beat-up Houston defense and San Francisco in weeks 15 and 16.

We should still proceed with caution using the Jaguars QB. He is still a bottom half of the league starter in the NFL. The Jaguars rank only 24^th in pass attempts and Bortles only has two games with 300+ yards passing (both against the Indianapolis Colts) and three games with multiple passing touchdowns. Jacksonville will continue limiting Bortles’ throws and game script against teams with a combined 7 wins over the next two weeks might force the volume even lower. Do not expect Bortles to carry your RSO team to a championship but he can be a useful piece for those suffering a late injury at QB or needing help in a superflex league.

Joe Flacco

Flacco is a pure schedule target for those in need of a desperation second quarterback play. Baltimore plays Cleveland and Indianapolis the final two weeks which is the softest remaining schedule for any passing offense. While Flacco has played better the past two weeks, do not go overboard here as you likely have better streaming options available. Flacco has been among the worst quarterbacks in the league this season ranking 33^rd in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, 29^th in ESPN’s QBR, and dead last in yards per attempt among qualified quarterbacks. He also does not receive the necessary passing volume to make up for his abysmal inefficiency.

Running Back

Mike Davis

Davis assumed primary back duties for the Seattle Seahawks gathering at least 16 touches and 65 yards in each of the last two games. He looks to extend his solid play in plus matchups versus the Rams and Cowboys over the next two weeks. You certainly could do worse than the primary running back on a Russell Wilson-led team in your flex. Be sure to keep an eye on the injury report to confirm Davis’ availability.

Kerwynn Williams

Another starter emerging over the last two weeks is Arizona Cardinals running back Kerwynn Williams. He amassed at least 16 touches and 88 yards each of the last two games. The remaining contests should be competitive as Arizona plays two teams, Washington and New York, with 5 or less wins each. The Redskins and Giants have also both struggled against the run this season. The Cardinals have no reason to rush Adrian Peterson back from a neck injury with Arizona almost certainly out of the playoffs.

Wide Receiver

Mike Wallace

See the upcoming schedule for Baltimore above in the Joe Flacco section. This is a juicy finish for Wallace as the Cleveland and Indianapolis pass defenses are in shambles. Wallace has also seen more consistent usage over the last five weeks including more downfield throws from Flacco. Feel somewhat confident (at least as confident as you can with Flacco at quarterback) firing up Wallace in your flex spot.

Dede Westbrook

Westbrook fell in the NFL draft to the 4^th round primarily due to character concerns after an explosive senior season. He then suffered a core injury which prevented him from seeing the field until the second half of the year. Westbrook quietly produced good results since his return averaging 5 catches and over 8 targets per game in four contests. Game script could hurt volume against two bottom-end teams (see above) but Westbrook is a solid start going forward (even with Bortles at quarterback and the Jags run-heavy script).

Travis Benjamin

Sometimes you simply want to take gambles on top offenses. Right now consider the Chargers Phillip Rivers-led passing attack among the top offenses. Rivers threw for over 300 yards in three straight games and has not thrown an interception for five weeks. The Chargers also get pass-deficient defenses in Kansas City and the New York Jets coming up. Volume remains an issue for Benjamin as trying to figure out who receives significant targets (if anyone) outside of Keenan Allen remains a mystery on a weekly basis for San Diego. Benjamin represents an extremely fast boom-bust player for those in need of a big week out of your flex spot and is someone possibly available on your waiver wire.

Tight End

Jared Cook

The tight end position remains a maddeningly inconsistent group for fantasy purposes with many questionable options. Oakland’s Jared Cook qualifies as one of the few tight ends receiving consistent usage having garnered at least 5 targets in all but one game this season. The athletic tight end finishes the fantasy season with Dallas and Philadelphia, two exploitable matchups for tight ends. Game script likely dictates Oakland throwing a bunch in these contests. Cook is 6^th in receiving yards at the position and a solid start moving forward.

Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

Evaluating Rushers into 2022

Evaluating running backs is a notoriously difficult task using many basic statistics as running back production relies extensively on many […]

Looking Forward: Expectations for the NFL Salary Cap

Covid issues created unique salary cap problems for the NFL following the 2020 season. The NFL salary cap unexpectedly dropped […]

2022 RSO Writer’s League Rookie Draft

Rookie drafts for Reality Sports Online teams involve a number of considerations different than a normal dynasty league. Selected rookies […]

2022 NFL Free Agency Look

This free agency group once looked liked a great one, particularly at wide receiver. Franchise tags to some of the […]

Strength of Schedule Targets

With the fantasy regular season nearing the end in most RSO leagues, owners with competitive teams need to begin thinking […]

RSO Decision: Extensions

The decision of whether to extend a player or not is one of the crucial points for Reality Sports Online […]

2018 Rookie RSO Extension Candidates

The 2018 NFL rookie class plays the final year of four-year contracts in the NFL and most Reality Sports Online […]

RSO Roster Construction: Player Tier Variation

The question of optimal roster construction remains a mystery to many in RSO leagues. How much should I allocate to […]

FA Expectancy: Jeremy Maclin

By Nick Andrews

Updated: July 16th 2017

Throughout the offseason, I will be preparing a collection of articles that will focus on free agents and trade candidates. The articles will discuss the player in question, and what the move does to their value, as well as what their landing spot means for their new and old teams.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

The first big surprise, post draft, of the offseason was the Chiefs releasing veteran wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. After having consecutive 1,000-yard seasons in 2014 and 2015 Maclin dropped of statistically last season because of injury. In 2016 Maclin had less than 45 catches and only 2 touchdowns. For these reasons and believing that he may have “lost a step” going into his age 29 season, the Chiefs decided to move on. The Ravens swooped in and picked up Maclin on a 2 year/ $11MM deal. This has had a positive influence on several players’ value (including Maclin’s) which makes a re-evaluation of the position on both teams necessary.

What does this do for Baltimore?

The two stats that kept getting thrown around regarding Baltimore this offseason was that they had the highest amount of pass attempts last season (672) and have one of the highest amount of vacated targets from last season with the departure of Steve Smith. Translation: any receiver that joined the Ravens would become highly sought after on volume alone. Now with Jeremy Maclin opposite to Mike Wallace Baltimore has a similar, albeit older, possession-to-speed wide receiver combo like in Tampa Bay, which I applauded in my last article. From that article, you should be able to take away that I don’t think that Wallace will see a significant drop in targets and fantasy value. Joe Flacco on the other hand needed a receiver more consistent than Wallace to be the team’s WR1 and it should increase the usability of Flacco in fantasy, especially in Superflex/2QB. Breshad Perriman is the player that most people have pointed to as the loser in this scenario but I think people’s expectations of what Perriman was going to be was too high to begin with. He could have bye week/flex appeal for a period this season but I don’t see him being more than a WR4/5 this season. I have never been high on Perriman and saw him and Phillip Dorsett of Indianapolis as similar one-skill players. The window to sell Perriman is closing with the signing of Jeremy Maclin.

Does this help Maclin’s value?

Jeremy Maclin came into Kansas City as the savior that could remove the stink of not having a receiver catch a touchdown in 2014. Some were skeptical that he was a product of Chip Kelly’s offense and would not have the same stats with Andy Reid. He answered with 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns and saw a big spike in his value. This lead to a number of RSO owners signing him to a multi-year deal at auction last offseason. Stephen Wendell and I even complemented RSO frontman Matt Papson last season on his 4 year/$26MM contract for Maclin in the Writer’s League. Unfortunately for all Maclin owners last year they were left wanting with his underwhelming 2016 season. Depending on how deep one invested they may have been able to trade out or just release Maclin earlier this offseason. If you did hold him through the low point you might as well hold him now till we see how he fits with the Ravens and what his value will bounce back to. In auctions, I will be treating Maclin much like I did Ryan Matthews last year where he could be a buy for a contending team that has the extra cap space this year but doesn’t want to commit money to the future for a sexier receiver. He should max out at $14MM for 2017, $25MM/2 years for those that really love the landing spot.

A “Hill” to die on in KC

No player has been more talked about (positively or negatively) in the 2017 offseason than Tyreek Hill. The rookie became the must waiver add midway through last season and many people were projecting his role to only increase heading into this season. Now with Maclin out and no obvious top option on the roster Hill will be locked in as one of your auction’s longest lasting bids. If you think Hill will be THEE player to get on your team be prepared to be spending over $15MM/year. If you are not a big Hill fan he’s definitely a player you want to nominate and watch other owners spend their cap on.

**As a tip I find that the first players at each position nominated actually go for less than their expected value since everyone is mildly hesitant to spend right away. Try not to nominate Hill (or any player you want out as a decoy) in the first round of selections. Instead, wait for a second or third pass to make owners set the market. **

Of course, the other Chiefs receivers have seen a bump in their value and are all worth acquiring, for the right price. Albert Wilson, Chris Conley, and even Jehu Chesson have a chance to be the WR2 (or WR1) in this offense but the Chiefs are not a team that is known for producing multiple fantasy relevant receivers. The drafting of Patrick Mahomes likely signals the change at QB from Alex Smith in the next year or two which could increase the depth of passes and overall aggressiveness of the offense. Ultimately there may be value in any three of these receivers if they can become a flex contributor. However, I would rather wait till the preseason to see which player looks like they will be playing the most snaps and pay the premium. Wilson and Chesson are likely available in your auction and could be bought near the end for close to the minimum. Conley has been gaining interest from the dynasty community and will be the most expensive of the three to acquire. A late second should be the ceiling that you pay to acquire him before we know more in August.

Make sure to continue to read more Free Agency Expectancy articles throughout the offseason to be prepared for your summer Auctions. Have a player that you want me to evaluate? Leave me a message on Twitter @naandrews19.

More Analysis by Nick Andrews