IDP Start/Sit: Week 9

Updated: November 2nd 2023

 

Week 8 we had every team playing again and lots of options. We looked good and the efficiencies checked out for our starts. For our sits, the process didn’t check out for on Holcomb and Grant. But holy cow, Bryce Huff needs to get a bit more run (or a competing team should have tried to nab him at the deadline) because this man is on fire this year. Might be worth a stash on your dynasty roster if he is available and you have the spot.

Week 8 Recap

DL:

Start: Bryce Huff (2 solos, 3 assists, 1 sack, TFL, QB hit) 👍 – Only on 37% snaps!?!

Sit: Jonathan Allen (1 assist, 2 QB hits) 👍

LB:

Start: Denzel Perryman (6 solos, 3 assists, TFL, QB hit, 0.5 sacks) 👍 – Only on 48% snaps!?!

Sit: Cole Holcomb (7 solos, 4 assists, FR) 👎 

DB:

Start: Jamal Adams (5 solos, 3 assists, TFL, PD) 👍

Sit: Richie Grant (6 solos, 3 assists, PD) 👎

Week 9 Starts & Sits

START: JeDeveon Clowney, Baltimore Ravens, DL46 (ED35)

Clowney has had a bit of a career flip here in his season with the Ravens. A defender once known for his strength in run defense and ability to make tackle plays in the backfield is now really showing some chops as a pass rusher. He is pacing out for 72+ pressures this season, his best since 64 in 2017. But he is going to do this on 200 fewer snaps. His efficiency is up and he is delivering strong pass-rush metrics in other spots, too. He is top 25 in the NFL in terms of his win rate at 22.8% this season. The one downside to Clowney’s season is his tackle floor has dropped to its lowest of his career as he is pacing out to have 29 total tackles this season. This week, Clowney gets the Seahawks whose offensive line has been a line that has allowed a 30% pressure rate on the season. This is one of the bottoms in terms of pressures allowed but only 11% sack conversion, one of the better marks this season. So for Clowney, he has been successful in creating pressures and should realize that this week, but his ability to convert a sack is good enough that he will have success this week, too, making him a viable starting option this week.

SIT: Jonathan Greenard, Houston Texans, DL27 (ED21)

Jonathan Greenard had an amazing week last week with 7 pressures and 3 sacks against the Panthers! He has delivered some solid metrics to go along with these recent eye-popping stats. He has a 19.1% win rate in pass rush sets and an 11% pash rush pressure rate. However, he has overproduced a bit on his sack production, where I would expect to see him closer to 3.5 sacks vs. the 7 he has. The potential negative regression in his sack production while coming into a matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week, has me a little concerned about Greenard being a strong play this week. Tampa has the third-lowest pressure rate allowed and the third-lowest sack conversion rate, too.

START: Blake Cashman, Houston Texans, LB26

Blake Cashman has been absolute money once stepping into the full-time role in this Demeco Ryans’ Houston Texans defense. Since getting the full-time role he has delivered a solid 13.42% tackle efficiency. The real kicker on top of that is the splash play he has added to that strong tackle floor. 6 TFL’s, 3 QB hits, 1 sack, and 2 PDs. With the strong tackle production and the addition of the big play upside, Bashman is firmly cemented as an LB2. This week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it is a bottom-half matchup scoring-wise, but Cashman is the primary LB in this offense has the best likelihood of absorbing the bulk of the LB scoring this week.

SIT: Kaden Elliss, Atlanta Falcons, LB29

It pains me to say to sit Kaden Elliss, he was a flag plant of mine and someone I was very excited about this season. Now, he hasn’t been a complete busy by any stretch of the imagination either. He is wearing the green dot for the Falcons and he is seeing nearly 100% of all snaps this season. However, is tackle efficiency is below average at 10.9%. While this is not ideal, we can normally work with this when there is upside in other aspects of their game. And with Kaden Elliss with thought we might have that with his pass-rush upside from his time with Saints and his DC Ryan Nielsen. Elliss is actually on pace to surpass his pass rush opportunities from last year by 21 chances while playing well over 400 snaps more than last year. This lower ceiling, plus a matchup against rookie QB Jaren Hall and the Vikings, with an offense that is not likely to be very efficient week 1 with this big change, I am expecting a lower set of opportunities for Elliss this week.

START: Keanu Neal, Pittsburgh Steelers, DB74 (S52)

Minkah Fitzpatrick is out and Keanu Neal was one of the biggest benefactors last week when Fitzpatrick was out due to injury. This gave him the opportunity to see his best utilization in the box and the slot alignments. What did that do for him in terms of his production? His best tackle production of the season with 7 solo tackles. And Minkah is officially out for the Thursday night matchup against the Titans and we should be ready to expect another solid night from Keanu Neal against an offense that maybe has some renewed juice with Will Levis behind center.

SIT: Trevon Moehrig, Las Vegas Raiders, DB39 (S30)

Trevon Moehrig had a wonderful week 8 with 10 total tackles for our IDP lineups. It did not hurt that he also had played all 86 snaps in that game! But that is still a very good 11.1% tackle efficiency, which we would be more than happy to have from a DB. He has also back-to-back weeks of 30 box snaps as well. These are both positive things for IDP production, however, prior to this week, his tackle efficiency sat at 7.5%, a good step below average tackle efficiency for DBs. In a matchup against a struggling New York Giants offense (especially if Daniel Jones sits), I would expect limited upside from most Raiders IDPs, but especially those that play further off the line, like Moehrig.

 

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More Analysis by Jake

IDP Start/Sit: Week 12

Updated: November 24th 2022

It’s the holiday season and I hope we all have a ton to be thankful for this year. Let’s see if we can find a bit more to be thankful for with some great lineup decisions for all your IDP teams out there!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show for them are what is the ECR over from Fantasy Pros for this week.

WEEK 11 RECAP
DL:
Start: Alex Highsmith (1 sack, 2 QB hits)
Start: Denico Autry (27 snaps, QB hit. Injured in the 2nd half but a lower performance up to that point)

Sit: Khalil Mack (1 hit, 1 solo)


LB:

Start: Frankie Luvu (Sack, 6 solos, 4 assists)

Start: Jamin Davis (2 solos, 3 assists)

Sit: Zaven Collins (3 solos, 3 assists)

 

DB:
Start: Dane Belton (2 solos. 59% of snaps, unstable usage and limited production, I’d pivot away moving forward)

Start: Tyrann Mathieu (5 solos, PD)

Sit: Kyle Dugger (Sack, 3 solos, 2 assists, PD. 90% of snaps! Dugger season might be in full effect moving forward)

 

START: Michael DannaKansas City Chiefs, DL53

Michael Danna has spent most of the season as a rotational pass-rusher for the Chiefs and has seen 53% of the snaps this year for their defense. Normally, not an ideal target to start. However, he has found a respectable 10.9% pass-rush pressure rate in his limited snaps. This week he gets the Los Angeles Rams who have the highest sack conversion from pressures allowed. In such a positive matchup, he shouldn’t need as many opportunities to deliver big-play upside. Additionally, the Rams should be in a negative game script that involved more passing, only increasing the opportunities for Danna. This is a deeper play, but should be available in the vast majority of leagues and has solid upside this week as a low-end DL3!

START: Lorenzo CarterAtlanta Falcons, DL69

Lorenzo Carter has been a consistent figure in the Atlanta Falcons defensive front. He has seen 81% of the snaps so far this season, which is very strong usage for a DL position. Carter has a very favorable matchup against the Commanders who are allowing a 29% pressure rate and 17% sack conversion rate. Even though his pass-rush pressure rate is average at 7.8%. The nice bonus to his matchup this weekend as well, is his solid PFF run defense grade of 65.9 for the season. This paired with the Commanders focus on the run game (44% of plays are run) and are one of the higher plays ran per game over the last 3 weeks at 69.7. With these things considered, I like Lorenzo as a high-end DL3 candidate.

SIT: Aidan HutchinsonDetroit Lions, DL20

This pains me to even consider Hutch here, especially with such elite snap counts, 86% on the season. However, he has delivered some big performances this season (and I believe will be a strong dynasty asset) he doesn’t have an ideal matchup against the Buffalo Bills this weekend. The Bills have only allowed a 24% pressure rate, top third in the league, as well as 8% sack conversion, which is 2nd best. Hutchinson’s IDP performances have been brought up by some unlikely things to continue. He has 2 games with interceptions in the last 3 weeks as well as 3 of his 5.5 sacks coming in 1 game in week 2. Additionally, his tackle floor for snaps played his average at best, 2.3 tackles per game. You can always start Hutch if you need him, but if you got better DL2/3 options, I would fire them up instead.

START: Kaden EllissNew Orleans Saints, LB29

Kaden Elliss, the man behind the man. With Pete Werner experiencing an injury and having surgery, Kaden has stepped up into that role and has he thrived for IDP purposes. He is in week 3 of that recovery so if you or someone else hasn’t already grabbed Elliss, do so and fire him up. The Saints are optimistic that Werner will try and play again this year, but until then we will roll with Kaden. The last two weeks he has seen snap percentages of 96% and 92% and he used them to deliver 2.5 sacks, 18 tackles, 3 QB hits, PD, and FF. His sack production has been very efficient but he has done well this whole year with a very strong 77.8 pass-rush PFF grade on the season. Last week, he topped out at his pass-rush grade with a 91.2 performance and I think this is more of what is to come. A great tackle floor with big-play, sack upside. Now, against the 49ers and their stronger pass protection, you’d think its less than ideal, but they are running nearly 69 snaps per game and the increased opportunity should balance out for Elliss this week. You should be looking at Elliss as a top 20 LB this week with next week looking the same too.

START: Dre GreenlawSan Francisco 49ers, LB34

Dre Greenlaw has just consistently been an efficient tackler and continues to do so this season at 14.9% and only missed 6 tackles on the season so far. Greenlaw tends to take the coverage side of the RB in most situations between him and Fred Warner. The matchup with the Saints and Alvin Kamara means Greenlaw can take that tackle efficiency and increased opportunities facing off against the Saints and Kamara. This matchup favors his Greenlaw’s ability and playstyle. As a note, for LB we love to find someone with near 100% snaps and the last 3 weeks have been rough for Greenlaw, but don’t let that fool with you and ejection in week 10 and starters being pulled in a blowout in week 11. Don’t let those numbers shy you away from Greenlaw. He is a strong candidate for LB2 this week and most of the weeks going forward.

SIT: Alex SingletonDenver Broncos, LB27

Alex Singleton is Mr. Efficiency. He has a career tackle efficiency of 17.6% and this season is sitting at a cool 19.7% efficiency this season. While this is great, you still need the volume to make it count for overall production. Singleton has passed Jonas Griffith as LB2 on the depth chart, but he is still only seeing 59% of the snap count. While normally he can turn that into a usable week for IDP, his matchup against the Carolina Panthers is not ideal. Their offense has struggled all year and they are running the worst, 55.6 plays per game on the season. This does not bode well for a strong week for Alex and I would be looking elsewhere this week for an LB3.

START: Grant Delpit, Cleveland Browns, DB29

Grant Delpit has seen very close to 100% of the defense’s snaps for the entire season. Along with the elite usage, he has taken 56% of his total snaps from the “sweet spot” (DL, box, slot). This is great usage for any safety in IDP and as such he is a strong DB2/3 candidate on that alone. Combined with a matchup against the Buccaneers this weekend who run 67 plays per game and 72 over the last 3 means even more opportunities. And Tom Brady is leading the league in passing attempts from 0-9 yards this season, which lines up greatly with players in that “sweet spot”. Delpit should be a strong DB2 candidate DB1 upside.

START: Vonn BellCincinnati Bengals, DB32

Vonn Bell is another safety with elite snap usage, with 98% played for the entirety of the season. He is sitting at 56.1% of his total snaps as well from the “sweet spot”. His matchup this week, however, does not have a pass heavy team for him to feast upon for IDP production. He gets a run-heavy team that will continue to attack the middle of the field with their run game. This gives Bell a much stronger floor than his DB32 ranking justifies. It is a solid floor play this week, with a lower ceiling, but this still makes Bell a high-end DB3 to a low-end DB2.

SIT: Kerby JosephDetroit Lions, DB13

Kerby Joseph has been a pleasant surprise for the Detroit Lion’s defense this year as a rookie coming on due to injuries. Once given the opportunity he has seen almost a near perfect 100% snap count. And with those snaps, he has found a way to deliver big plays with 3 interceptions and 5 PDs. The INTs are not something we should rely on this point but take more into his upside. However, teams have been taking the cover-2, or two high safeties approach against the Bills offense this year, which leads to a lower tackle efficiency overall and creates a great dependency on big-plays, which Kerby has delivered at times this year. Joseph has strong usage and a matchup that should allow for a higher snap count this week, but his floor feels too low for me to confidently use him as a DB1/2 this week. His level sits as DB3 for me but if you want to plug him in focusing on big-play opportunities, it does exist.

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