The Watch List: 2019 NFL Mock Draft, Picks 49-64+
Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. Check back throughout the Spring and Summer as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.
For the first time in my mock draft career, I decided to do a mock NFL Draft using draft pick trades. Let me tell you, it was incredibly fun! In addition to doing a full two round mock, I included some “best of the rest” players that I expect to outperform their late round draft stock. Over the next two weeks, you’ll see the full mock broken into four parts, released in reverse order. At the end of this post I have included a number of important notes that you may want to read before diving in. To view the other parts of my mock draft click here as we get closer to the NFL Draft.
Best of the Rest
The following list of players are mid- to late-rounders who I researched in the last year and think could achieve a good return on investment for their NFL team. The reasons for their value vary, from size to injury to character, but I wager they’ll beat their draft spot.
- Brett Rypien, QB, Boise State
- Justice Hill, RB, Oklahoma State
- Alexander Mattison, RB, Boise State
- Mike Weber, RB, Ohio State
- Tyre Brady, WR, Marshall
- Preston Williams, WR, Colorado State
- Emmanuel Butler, WR, Northern Arizona
- Donald Parham, TE, Stetson
- Kahale Warring, TE, San Diego State
- Corbin Kaufusi, DE, BYU
- Jachai Polite, DE, Florida
- Blake Cashman, ILB, Minnesota
- Cameron Smith, ILB, USC
- Blessaun Austin, CB, Rutgers
- Clifton Duck, CB, Western Michigan
- Jaquan Johnson, S, Miami
- Andrew Wingard, S, Wyoming
2.32, New England Patriots | Ryan Finley, QB, NC State
It’s inevitable that the Patriots take another Day Two passer to sit behind Tom Brady. They would look for a pocket passer and I think Finley would appeal to them for his size and potential to be molded into a future asset should Brady stick around. Finley isn’t my next highest ranked quarterback, that that would be Brett Rypien, but I think Finley is the one who would most appeal to the Patriots.
2.31, Kansas City Chiefs | Justin Layne, CB, Michigan St
The Chiefs have a big need at corner after having the second worst passing defense in 2018. Steven Nelson left in free agency and their two highest paid returners, Kendall Fuller and Bashaud Breeland, are free agents next offseason. Layne has rare length for the position and would be a welcome addition for Chief fans.
2.30, New York Jets | JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Stanford
After trading up to take DE Marcus Davenport last season, the Saints may be interested in trading back a few spots to pick up an extra pick or two. Even though they should be following the same tack, I couldn’t resist having the Jets jump up from 3.04 and grab Arcega-Whiteside. Arcega-Whiteside would be a nice complement to the newly signed slot Jamison Crowder and a healthy Quincy Enunwa. Robby Anderson is still on the roster but is only signed through this year.
2.29, Kansas City Chiefs | Darrell Henderson, RB, Memphis
Running back went from a strength to a weakness in a blink last season for the Chiefs. Kareem Hunt and Spencer Ware are gone and Carlos Hyde is in (but does anybody care?). In an effort to make the Chiefs depth chart even more confusing, I have them drafting Darrell Henderson to go with Damien Williams and Darel Williams. Henderson is undersized but had incredible per-touch production in college.
2.28, Los Angeles Chargers | Kaleb McGary, OT, Washington
The Chargers were a hard team for me to identify draft needs for. I had them address the offensive line in the first round, so do they take another bite at the apple? Maybe not but McGary went in the first round of two mocks I saw so getting him this late would be a steal. They could also look for a DT but I didn’t see the value in that position at this pick.
2.27, Indianapolis Colts | Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame
The Colts have an extra second from their deal with the Jets last year and I think they should use it to add depth at corner for the same reason I had the Titans take Byron Murphy: the AFC South passing offenses look to be stronger this season. Despite being a shade short, Love has great ball skills; he had the most passes defended over the last two seasons in the FBS (36).
2.26, Dallas Cowboys | Chase Winovich, DE, Michigan
The Cowboys were quiet during free agency. Their defensive line hasn’t been very quiet though. David Irving retired in stunning fashion while Randy Gregory is suspended yet again. They did manage to resign Demarcus Lawrence after tagging him but that doesn’t negate the need for an edge rusher opposite him. Winovich is a relentless pass rusher and will add 4.59 speed to an already fast defense.
2.25, Philadelphia Eagles | Yodny Cajuste, OT, West Virginia
LT Jason Peters is 37 and his contract ends this season. He played a full slate in 2018 but that was only the fifth time in his fifteen year career that he played the full season. Cajuste is a bit light to be a starting LT but he was the strongest lineman at the combine by far (32 reps vs 28 for the next best).
2.24, New England Patriots | Kelvin Harmon, WR, North Carolina St
If any team would appreciate Harmon’s nuanced route running, it would be New England. He tested poorly at the combine but I don’t think that will cause him to fall too far.
2.23, Houston Texans | Damien Harris, RB, Alabama
In addition to protecting Watson, the Texans should also add a running back to help alleviate some playmaking pressure. Lamar Miller has largely been a disappointment in Houston and he’s gone after 2019. I predict that Miller won’t even make it through training camp on the roster because he has just $1mil in dead cap if the team were to release him today. Harris is well-rounded enough to be a competent starter for the rest of Watson’s rookie contract window.
2.22, Houston Texans | Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss
The Texans just signed LT Matt Kalil but, if anything, that just proves that they need to address the position early in the draft. They gave up a league-leading 62 sacks in 2018 so go ahead and pick your preferred offensive linemen here, depending on whether you went T or G in the first round.
2.21, Philadelphia Eagles | David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State
Montgomery is my pick for the best back in the draft so I think this is good value. The Eagles just traded for Jordan Howard but the team would lose nothing (aside from that conditional 2020 6th round pick) if they cut him at any point this offseason. It turned out to be a shrewd contingency plan in case they miss out on one of the backs at the top of the draft.
2.20, Pittsburgh Steelers | Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina
If you live under a rock you may have missed that the Steelers traded receiver extraordinaire Antonio Brown this offseason. Brown was great in space with the ball and was effective from the slot. Deebo could grow into that role and play off young incumbents Juju Smith-Schuster and James Washington.
2.19, Tennessee Titans | Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State
The Titans signed another possession receiver this offseason, Adam Humphries, to pair with former first rounder Corey Davis. Adding Campbell to the mix would give QB Marcus Mariota some much-needed speed to work with.
2.18, Minnesota Vikings | Zach Allen, DT, Boston College
I struggled with a draft strategy for the Vikings so I decided to have them add depth to the front seven with both first round picks. (They can address the OL with multiple mid-round picks.) Allen has earned a reputation as a high energy player and would rotate in at DE and at DT alongside Linval Joseph.
2.17, Cleveland Browns | Trayvon Mullen, CB, Clemson
This was my only pick for the Browns in this mock draft. After hitting on CB Denzel Ward last year, I think the Browns should go back to the well and see if they can land another instant starter. They made a number of flashy moves this offseason with OBJ, Olivier Vernon, Sheldon Richardson and Morgan Burnett so this would be a smart, yet unsexy pick.
A few housekeeping notes:
- The full mock draft was written between April 4-10. Any moves or news released after that point would not be taken into account.
- To help me track my mock draft, I used a very useful tool I found on Reddit called RST’s 2019 Draft Tracker.
- This spreadsheet lets you easily trade draft picks and uses a pick value chart so you can try and keep trades fair. All of the trades except for Washington/Arizona were pick for pick and I required that the team moving up offer more value than the value chart suggested was fair.
- Since the trades all included late picks not covered in this mock I didn’t bother noting each individual trade. Instead, I described my general thinking for the trade.
- For each pick, I tried to put myself in the shoes of the GM. If given the chance, I would not necessarily make all of the same picks as I value some players and positions differently.
- Keep in mind that my predicted draft order does not necessarily correspond to my personal positional rankings.
- I could not have put together the roster and contract notes without the help of two invaluable sites: Our Lads and Spotrac.
Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor. Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths. So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113. This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. When writing a full report for a player, I typically pick two games of film to watch. When time permits, I may add a third game. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players. When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:
- Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
- Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
- Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
- Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
- NFL rosters and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
- Draft history: drafthistory.com
- Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
- Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
- Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
- Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com (the media home for FWAA members)
- Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com
Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.
