Week 10 Street FA Report

By Nick Andrews

Updated: November 11th 2020

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Jakobi Meyers, WR – NE (Owned 31%)

Week 9: 12 Rec/169 yards

Jakobi Meyers had slowly been building his role as the primary receiver in New England’s offense since returning to the lineup in week 7. His back-to-back double-digit performance was not enough to raise his ownership percentage however and now after his breakout week 10 performance he sits available in over two-thirds of RSO leagues. Cam Newton has not been able to share the end zone with his receivers much this season, just two (2) touchdowns thus far, but Meyers could become the next PPR monster. His 30 targets in the last three (3) games ranks him sixth (6^th) overall. A late-season gem, Meyers looks poised for a second-half that could make him the ideal zero-WR target in auctions in 2021.

Suggested Bid: $10,000,000

QB Add

Jake Luton, QB – JAX (Owned 25%)

Week 9: 26/38, 304 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Car/13 yards, 1 TD

The rare quarterback street free agent recommendation, Jake Luton’s strong performance was lost in the huge week for fantasy quarterbacks. A sixth-round pick this offseason, Luton stepped in for Gardner Minshew (sounds familiar) and played well in replace of the veteran throwing for over 300 passing yards and scored over 21 fantasy points. His performance in week 9 has led to him being named the starter in week 10 and potentially for the remainder of the season. Tough matchups against the Packers and Steelers will present a greater challenge than that of the Texans defense but there are always garbage time points. Obvious bump to your bid amounts in 2QB and Superflex leagues where he should have already been rostered and now likely will cost the premium to pick up.

Suggested Bid: $500,000 (standard) / $8,000,000 (Superflex)

RB Add

Kalen Ballage, RB – LAC (Owned 17%)

Week 9: 15 Car/69 yards, 1 TD, 2 Rec/15 yards

It was another instance of a player getting away from Adam Gase and having fantasy success as Kalen Ballage went from the practice squad to lead back for Los Angeles in week 10. Ballage played on 40 percent of the snaps but out-carried rookie Joshua Kelley (15:9) after Justin Jackson was injured on the first drive. With Troymaine Pope already out with a concussion and now Jackson possibly missing time with a leg injury, Ballage could be in line for a couple more RB3-level performances. Head Coach Anthony Lynn was also quoted back in October saying that starting running back Austin Ekeler’s timetable would be “later rather than sooner” so it does not appear his return is expected to be any time soon either.

Suggested Bid: $2,500,000

Duke Johnson, RB – HOU (Owned 65%)

Week 9: 16 Car/41 yards, 1 TD, 4 Rec/32 yards

I assumed that Duke Johnson was not going to be available for this column because while he has not been productive thus far, with only 23 total PPR points, name-brand running backs are not usually sitting on the wire in 35 percent of leagues at this point in the season. David Johnson exited week 9 with a concussion early in the game leaving Duke Johnson to carry much of the workload. It resulted in his first double-digit performance of the season and leaves the door open for another strong performance if the former DJ does not clear protocol before Sunday. Monitor the situation as the week progresses and if David Johnson begins trending in the wrong direction Duke Johnson could be a sneaky RB2 once again.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

WR Add

David Moore, WR – SEA (Owned 28%)

Week 9: 4 Rec/71 yards, 1 TD

All eyes have been on D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett this season but third receiver David Moore has quietly been a flex receiver five (5) of the Seahawks first eight (8) games. With Russell Wilson airing it out more than he had been in the past there finally have been opportunities for more receiver production from the ancillary options in the offense. Moore’s target share will always be low because of the two alpha receivers ahead of him but he seems to have a knack for getting in the endzone with four (4) touchdowns already this year. If you play with deep starting rosters Moore could be a boom/bust WR4.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add

Cam Sims, WR – WAS (Owned 2%)

Week 9: 3 Rec/110 yards

Fantasy fans have been waiting for Steven Sims to break out for Washington but it appears that the other Sims, Cam Sims, may have passed him on the depth chart. Cam played 40 offensive snaps to Steven’s 16 and had four (4) targets to Steven’s one (1). He also appeared to have better chemistry with Alex Smith once he entered the game than he had with either Kyle Allen or Dwayne Haskins so that might be his way to more targets. It has only been one good performance so temper expectations but if you have deep rosters to stash him he could be a flex option in the final (8) eight games.

Suggested Add: $500,000

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2018 RSO Rookie Mock Draft v2.1

By Bob Cowper

Updated: January 27th 2018

My first 2018 rookie mock draft was published back on Sept 6 and while some things have changed, I am actually quite pleased with how my mock draft held up throughout the season. I followed the same guidelines here as I did back in September. Namely, I used two base assumptions: 1) a standard one QB roster setup and 2) any junior good enough to be considered will declare early (the deadline is Jan 15 so by the time you read this we may already know that some guys are not going into the draft). Players are broken down into tiers and I have noted where they were mocked last time to show their movement from version to version. To view version 1.0, click here. Version 2.0 never saw the light of day as Bryce Love, Damien Harris and Myles Gaskin decided to return to school before publishing (for what it’s worth they were at 1.09, 2.06 and 2.09 respectively). I also compile mock draft information for the /r/DynastyFF sub Reddit which you can view here. Share your thoughts with me on Twitter @robertfcowper.

1.01, Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State (last: 1.01)

Barkley is in a tier all by himself. He’s a supreme athlete (possibly sub-4.40 speed) with good vision and is a good pass catcher. He’ll be the consensus first pick in just about every fantasy rookie draft and could be a Top 5 NFL Draft pick. Don’t overthink it.

1.02, Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia (1.03)

1.03, Derrius Guice, RB, LSU (1.02)

(Note: this was written prior to Nick Chubb’s poor performance in the championship game. In hindsight, I am less confident about placing him at 1.02. One game does not a career make but still he played poorly against a defense full of NFL talent. I will re-visit this in the offseason) I now have Chubb and Guice flipped compared to where I had them to start the season. Heading into the season, Chubb’s 2015 knee injury felt like more of a concern than it does now since he has completed two full seasons since. Their stats this season were similar but Chubb had a slight edge as a rusher (1,320 yards and 15 TDs for Chubb, 1,251 and 11 TDs for Guice). Neither is a receiver like Barkley. Both backs have a career high of 18 receptions in a season – Guice did so in 2017 while Chubb did so as a freshman in 2014. The margin between the two for me is razor thin. I lean towards Chubb since we have a bigger sample size.

1.04, Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama (1.04)

1.05, James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State (1.08)

1.06, Ronald Jones, RB, USC (2.07)

I still have Ridley as my WR1 even though 2017 was not a great season (just 59 receptions, 935 yards and 4 TDs prior to the championship game). To my eye, he is just the most skilled WR in the class, regardless of his production. He is very fast (4.35 40 yard dash in the Spring), jumps well enough to out play his 6’1″ height and is a good route runner. Washington is pretty quick himself but he just doesn’t seem as polished as Ridley. It’s hard to argue against Washington’s production but I think he’ll be drafted later than Ridley and won’t be as good of a pro in the long run. Washington is this high though because I think he will make an early impact in the league if he lands on the right team. Jones makes a huge jump from 2.07 to 1.06. I questioned his size to start the year, I thought he was too tall for his weight, but am no longer as concerned because he put on some weight. He’s such a quick and fast runner and was very productive this year (1,550 yards, 19 TDs). If he was a little more “squat” but just as fast and nimble he’d be challenging for the 1.02.

1.07, Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State (undrafted)

1.08, Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU (1.07)

Rashaad Penny made a huge impression on me this season. I noticed Penny in August but thought he was more of a returner than a running back. He proved his worth as a rusher (his 2,248 yards led the FBS) but still managed to contribute as a return man (3 return TDs). Penny will probably be an early Day Three draft selection but I think his value as a return man will help him see the field earlier. Bryce Love originally found himself in this tier before deciding to return to school. Conversely to the ascending Penny, Sutton’s stock is falling for me. Sutton has the best size of the top three receivers (6’4, 215lbs) but I have some concerns. In my past research, I found that he mostly beat up on bad defenses; against the best defense he played this year (TCU), he was held to one catch for zero yards. It also bothers me that Sutton was not the leading receiver on his team this year (Trey Quinn had more receptions, yards and touchdowns). Sutton likely saw extra defensive attention but if he’s to be an NFL star, he must be able to dominate even against double coverage in games against lesser defenses. Interesting stat for Sutton, 8 of his 31 career receiving touchdowns came in three games against North Texas. I want to see him at the combine – if he comes in smaller than advertised he could fall out of my first round.

1.09, Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon (1.07)

1.10, Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis (2.02)

2.01, Sony Michel, RB, Georgia (2.06)

2.02, Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M (1.05)

This tier features some of my favorite players in the draft in terms of value. I was high on Freeman to start the season before he came out on fire (10 TDs in the first four games). His pace slowed in the middle of the season but he finished strong too with 6 TDs in the games against Arizona and Oregon State. He decided to skip the bowl which was disappointing because I wanted to see him against Boise State’s defense. Despite the positive impression he made on me, I do have him a little lower now because he was jumped by Ronald Jones and Rashaad Penny at the position. Two players who did not skip the end of their seasons are Anthony Miller and Sony Michel. Miller is an absolute gamer who I want on my team. He’s not that big or that fast but he’s just productive. He runs routes well and has possibly the best hands in the class. He could have broken his leg in the AAC Championship game and he would have still finished the overtime. It may be a bit of a reach but I’m willing to take Miller at the end of the first to guarantee I get him. Michel is sometimes overshadowed by Chubb but he’s just as good in his own right. He has two 1,000+ yard seasons to his name and a career 6.1 yards per carry average. He is a better receiver than his 9 receptions in 2017 show. In 2015 and 2016 he had 48 combined. The hype on Michel is growing so you may not be able to get him at 2.01 but let’s not overreact to two nationally televised games. Michel will be a solid pro but I’m not willing to jump him over Chubb. Kirk dropped because I was probably too high on him originally but I still like him. He’s a great return man but so many of his receptions come at the line of scrimmage that I worry his NFL role may be limited.

2.03, Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA (2.08)

2.04, Sam Darnold, QB, USC (2.01)

This is where my RSO mock will diverge slightly from a true dynasty mock. I strongly believe that going quarterback early in the second round of your rookie mock is the way to go. The salary paid will be less than $2mil per season which is a fantastic bargain for a starting quarterback, especially considering that most quarterbacks taken in the first round of the NFL Draft will see game action sometime in the first season. The return on investment here is so high when you “hit” that it’s worth taking a chance on a “miss.” Readers will notice that 1) Rosen has jumped Darnold and 2) I am taking the QBs a little later now. Neither guy had a great season and they both come with some warts so I think this spot feels right. Even if Darnold gets drafted higher, barring some crazy trade that lands him on a good team, I would go with Rosen first as I feel he is more NFL-ready and will realize more value during his four year RSO rookie contract.

2.05, Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame (2.03)

2.06, Akrum Wadley, RB, Iowa (undrafted)

2.07, Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State (3.07)

This was a very tough stretch for me to rank. I originally included Myles Gaskin and Damien Harris in this tier but they are now removed as they seek a higher grade next year. St. Brown dropped between mocks because he only had 33 receptions. Like Calvin Ridley, he was the leading receiver on a run-heavy offense. I didn’t count that against Ridley but I do against St. Brown because it’s tough to invest highly in a guy with just 92 career receptions. St. Brown would have dropped further if it weren’t for the decisions of Love and Harris ahead of him. Wadley and Gallup mostly stayed under the radar this season but move up in my rankings even though their per-touch averages decreased. They both significantly increased the number of touches they handled this season and played well in their biggest games. Gallup totaled 21 receptions and 282 yards in three games against Power 5 defenses (Oregon State, Colorado, Alabama); Wadley had 158 total yards versus Ohio State in what was ultimately the death blow for the Buckeyes’ playoff chances.

2.08, Dante Pettis, WR, Washington (2.04)

2.09, Bo Scarborough, RB, Alabama (1.06)

2.10, Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame (undrafted)

Bringing up the rear of the second round are three Power 5 players that I would be willing to take a shot on despite my concerns about their size. Pettis is a dynamo and can change a game with one touch. He had four punt return touchdowns this year and led the FBS in punt return average. He managed to increase his receptions this year but his per-touch averages decreased. He’s 6’1″ but about 195lbs so he’s a little too light. The fact that his former teammate John Ross was such a bust as a first rounder last year probably hurts Pettis even if it’s not fair. Scarborough and Adams were both productive in college but at 6’2″ they might be too tall to play running back effectively in the NFL. The comps in that size are not favorable. The best is Derrick Henry but other than that it’s a lot of no-name players over the last decade.

3.01, Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma (undrafted)

If it makes RSO salary cap sense to take a quarterback near the top of the second, it stands to reason you should at the top of the third. Mayfield is currently my QB3 after an incredibly efficient season but I want to watch more tape. Heading into the season I had both Mason Rudolph, Lamar Jackson and Luke Falk ranked higher. Right now Rudolph would be the only one I consider putting here instead of Mayfield.

3.02, Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State (undrafted)

3.03, Allen Lazard, WR, Iowa State (3.01)

3.04, Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina (3.05)

3.05, Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma (2.10)

Let the tight end run begin! I think everybody would agree that this year’s tight end class pales in comparison to last year but when is the right time to take one? I’m having trouble valuing them so I’ll bet others are too. My guess is that once one goes in your RSO draft, two or three will follow shortly after. Gesicki gets the nod as the top prospect because he’s bigger than both Andrews and Hurst and at least as athletic, if not more. Hurst is more of a traditional TE than the other two as he blocks better but he’s also fast enough and a good pass catcher. I had Hurst above Andrews in my early 2018 positional rankings and will stick with my gut. It takes time for tight ends to develop, Evan Engram notwithstanding, so I’ll knock Andrews down a peg because he so rarely lined up as a tight end in college. Lazard isn’t a TE but he’s a big-bodied receiver who I am a fan of. He was a key part of Iowa State’s miracle run (71-941-10). I wish I was able to find him a spot higher because it feels like I’m down on him compared to start the season but that’s not the case.

3.06, Auden Tate, WR, Florida State (undrafted)

3.07, Simmie Cobbs, WR, Indiana (undrafted)

3.08, Kalen Ballage, RB, Arizona State (3.04)

3.09, Jaylen Smith, WR, Louisville, (undrafted)

3.10, Deon Cain, WR, Clemson (1.10)

Similarly to how I ended the second round, I will end the third round with a group of Power 5 players who I will take a flyer on. Tate has elite size, ball skills and body control but has just 65 career receptions. Cobbs also has elite size but he concerns me. He was suspended to start the 2016 season for “not living up to the responsibilities of the program,” and then subsequently suffered a season ending injury in his first game that year. In the summer of 2017 he was arrested at a concert. He didn’t face any discipline so it’s probably nothing but still I would worry about a pattern of negative behavior. Ballage is a bowling ball at 6’3″ and 230lbs. He is an effective receiver but averages just 4.4 yards per carry in his career. His size concerns me too. It’s hard to find a back with receiving stats like he had in 2016, so with a late third, what the heck. I don’t know enough about Jaylen Smith to properly evaluate him yet but our friends at the Dynasty Command Center are very high on him so I’ll trust their analysis. Smith had a crazy 22.9 yards per reception average in 2016 which was unsustainable (in 2017 it was still a solid 16.3). Deon Cain is another player who concerns me off the field. After a failed drug test, Clemson suspended him in 2015 for both of their College Football Playoff games and continued to hold him out through Spring practice. He lead the Tigers in yards (734) and TDs (6) this season but I was hoping for more now that he was out of Mike Williams’ shadow.

Honorable Mentions

4.01, Richie James, WR, Middle Tennessee State (undrafted)

4.02, Mike Weber, RB, Ohio State (undrafted)

4.03, Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State (undrafted)

4.04, Adam Breneman, TE, UMass (undrafted)

4.05, Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn (undrafted)

4.06, Deontay Burnett, WR, USC (undrafted)

4.07, Jalin Moore, RB, Appalachian State (undrafted)

4.08, Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State (undrafted)

4.09, Jaylen Samuels, TE, North Carolina State (undrafted)

4.10, Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville (undrafted)

Guys who I like but couldn’t find space for yet: Ryan Finley, Ito Smith, Jordan Chunn, Cedric Wilson, Antonio Callaway, Troy Fumagali

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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The Watch List: Bowl Game Previews, Part V

By Bob Cowper

Updated: December 30th 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. During the college bowl season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. Note: times listed are Eastern.

Friday, Dec. 29

Hyundai Sun Bowl, Arizona State (7-5) vs. #24 North Carolina State (8-4), 2 p.m. (CBS)

Arizona State: 40th scoring offense, 49th passing offense, 50th rushing offense; 88th scoring defense, 119th passing defense, 82nd rushing defense
NC State: 47th scoring offense, 29nd passing offense, 51st rushing offense; 50th scoring defense, 97th passing defense, 29th rushing defense

Both of these teams have endured some coaching carousel drama over the last month. NC State’s Dave Doeren was an early target in Tennessee’s never-ending coach search but ultimately he spurned the Vols to stick with the Wolfpack. Doeren has NC State playing in their fourth straight bowl and should the team stay competitive next year he’ll probably be in the running for an even bigger job at the end of 2018. Arizona State made the odd, in my opinion, hire of Herm Edwards. Herm is a master motivator for sure but Herm has not been involved with the college game since 1989. Even more odd is that outgoing coach Todd Graham is sticking around to coach the bowl.

Arizona State’s offense is led by two NFL hopefuls in senior RB Kalen Ballage and sophomore WR N’Keal Harry. Ballage is a big back at 6’3″ and 230lbs. His size concerns me because few backs have been successful in the NFL at that height. Since 2010, only four backs have measured 6’2″ and 225lbs or bigger at the combine: Derrick Henry, Matt Jones, Dominique Brown and James Wilder. Henry has potential but he has not yet earned the starting role in Tennessee and teams may be hesitant to roll the dice on a big back like Ballage. Ballage has not handled a full load in any of his four seasons but he is a productive pass catcher (44 receptions in 2016, 19 this year). His high number of carries came this year with 153. He has under 2,000 yards in his career. I’m just not able to get that excited about him, honestly. I have read comparisons to David Johnson but I think that is crazy: Johnson was more than twice as productive in most stat categories in college. Ballage will get drafted in fantasy leagues but it won’t be by me. The other big name for the Sun Devils is WR N’Keal Harry. Harry is not draft eligible so it’s not worth a deep dive yet but you will hear his name constantly next season. He has elite height (6’4″) and has been very productive as a young receiver on a mediocre team (career line of 131-1,659-12). Add Harry to your 2019 short list now!

North Carolina State has three draft prospects that I will touch on. First and foremost is DE Bradley Chubb. I mentioned Chubb a few times in the middle of the season when NC State was looking like it could challenge Clemson for the conference title. He has 25 sacks and 54.5 tackles for loss in his career. Chubb is relentless and should be a Top 5 pick in the NFL Draft. Sadly, he’s banged up and may miss the bowl game. On offense, QB Ryan Finley and TE Jaylen Samuels are the two to watch. Samuels is one of my favorite players of the season because he transcends position. He is listed as a TE but he’s really too small to play the position in the NFL. Instead he’ll probably factor in as a hybrid RB, FB, TE who lines up all over the field. To give you an idea of Samuels’ versatility, look at his 2017 stats: 68 receptions, 547 receiving yards, 4 rushing TDs, 72 rushing attempts, 387 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs. Samuels was the only player in the FBS with more than 65 receptions and rushing attempts. More so than any other prospect, Samuels’ 2018 fantasy value relies heavily on his landing spot. If he gets drafted by a team with a creative offense he could turn into the ultimate third down and short yardage weapon. Finley is a late round quarterback prospect that is hard for me to get excited about. He should add a few pounds to his 6’4″ frame because he’s listed at just 210lbs and may be lighter. He’s efficient and does not turn the ball over often. Finley does have another year of eligibility so we could see him come back for another season to improve his draft stock. WalterFootball.com has him as QB16 for 2018 while NFLDraftScout.com has him as QB14 in his 2019 class. If he can show a more prolific side to his game in 2018, he could become a mid-rounder next year.

Even if it weren’t for the Sun Devils coaching distractions, I would have gone for NC State because Arizona State’s defense is so bad. Prediction: North Carolina State

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, #8 USC (11-2) vs. #5 Ohio State (11-2), 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

USC: 24th scoring offense, 19th passing offense, 36th rushing offense; 61st scoring defense, 98th passing defense, 57th rushing defense
Ohio State: 5th scoring offense, 28th passing offense, 13th rushing offense; 22nd scoring defense, 18th passing defense, 7th rushing defense

I don’t care what the name of this bowl is, it’s the Rose Bowl to me. I hate the fact that with the new CFP we lose the historical tradition of some of the biggest games. The folks running the Cotton Bowl got themselves a doozy of a matchup with two Power 5 conference champions and a slew of NFL prospects. Covering each and every one of the draft hopefuls in this game is impossible – I will touch on a few but by no means is this a comprehensive list.

Let’s start with Ohio State. By now, we have all heard and participated in the debate about whether or not Ohio State should have been in the playoff. I fear that topic will be prominent during the telecast and will overshadow some of the great players on the field for the Buckeyes. QB JT Barrett improved on a number of stats this season but probably hurt his chances of playing quarterback in the NFL after poor performances in three big games (against Iowa, Michigan [before the injury], and Wisconsin). I don’t have an opinion yet on whether Barrett should enter the draft process as a QB but my gut says he will. The RB duo of freshman JK Dobbins and redshirt sophomore Mike Weber was very productive (nearly 2,000 combined rushing yards and 17 TDs). Dobbins took advantage of an early, and lingering, injury to Weber to steal the lead role. If Weber comes out for the 2018 draft, I think his stock is less now than it was four months ago. He could return but it’s clear he won’t be the first choice back. Maybe he transfers, sits out a year, and dominates at a lower level Power 5 school in 2019. I listed Weber as my RB13 in November so if he does come out he’s a mid-rounder at best. The strength of Ohio State’s team lies outside of the offensive skill positions. Drafttek.com has six Buckeyes ranked in their Top 10 NFL draft prospects from the Big Ten: three defensive linemen (Sam Hubbard, Tyquan Lewis, Dante Booker), one corner (Denzel Ward) and two offensive linemen (Jamarco Jones and Billy Price). I’ll venture a guess that four of the six go in the first round (Ward, Hubbard, Price, Jones) with the other two following on Day Two. The best prospect on the defense, sophomore DE Nick Bosa, is not yet draft eligible but he’d be a first rounder too if he were.

The biggest name on USC’s team is QB Sam Darnold but he has really hurt his draft stock this season. Darnold was a walking turnover in 2017: 12 INTs and 10 fumbles (7 of which were lost). Elite quarterback prospects just can’t turn the ball over that often; for comparison, Rosen (13) and Mayfield (5) combine for fewer turnovers than Darnold. Darnold is only a redshirt sophomore so he is young and still has two more years of eligibility should he decide to return to college for further seasoning. Ultimately, I think Darnold comes out and is a Top 3 pick because of the potential the he has shown. Despite his turnovers, the yardage, scoring and efficiency are all above average. He’s also an above average runner with enough speed to earn first downs when flushed from the pocket. What Darnold has that doesn’t show up in the box score is his confidence and swagger. If I had to pick one college QB to lead my team in a comeback, I would take Darnold because he wouldn’t shrink from the challenge. One negative: Darnold’s throwing motion. I noticed this in the offseason and plan on watching more film before the draft to see if it’s improved. Darnold’s favorite receiver is WR Deontay Burnett. Burnett is undersized (6’0″ and 170lbs) so he likely won’t garner early round attention but I’ve raved about him numerous times this season. A close size comp for Burnett would be Travis Benjamin who was a 4th round pick back in 2012. Burnett was good, but not great, this season going for 74-975-9. I started the season low on RB Ronald Jones but I came around by mid-September. He is just so quick and agile that it’s almost not fair to defenders. I was previously concerned about his size but no longer. Even though he missed a game due to injury, Jones totaled 1,486 yards and 18 rushing TDs; he added 13 receptions for 165 yards and another score. After a down game against Notre Dame, Jones ended the season strong with over 800 yards and 10 TDs in the last five games. He’s fun to watch and I am so happy he won’t be skipping the Cotton Bowl. On defense, the Trojans have a number of prospects including Cameron Smith and Porter Gustin. Gustin missed most of the season, and is doubtful for the bowl, but could get drafted based on a solid sophomore season if he comes out (68 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks). Smith is a prototypical MLB who has 263 career tackles and has been a big part of the USC defense for three years; according to WalterFootball.com he is looking at a mid-round grade.

Ohio State’s defense will be the best unit on the field and is strong enough to limit Darnold and Jones. I expect the Buckeyes to win in a game where they beat USC in time of possession. Prediction: Ohio State

Saturday, Dec. 30

TaxSlayer Bowl, Louisville (8-4) vs. #23 Mississippi State (8-4), 12 p.m. (ESPN)

Louisville: 13th scoring offense, 15th passing offense, 14th rushing offense; 71st scoring defense, 77th passing defense, 52nd rushing defense
Mississippi State: 38th scoring offense, 109th passing offense, 15th rushing offense; 24th scoring defense, 13th passing defense, 24th rushing defense

As far as the NFL Draft prospects go this matchup is all about Louisville, let’s touch on Mississippi State first though. QB Nick Fitzgerald could be an interesting study in 2019 but I don’t think he has enough of a resume to warrant coming out for 2018, especially after a season-ending ankle injury sustained on Thanksgiving. NFLDraftScout.com has him as the QB6 in his 2019 draft class. Fitzgerald will need to improve on his efficiency in 2018 because he doesn’t complete enough passes (55.6%) and throws too many INTs (15:11 ratio this season). He’s a tremendous rushing threat with 33 career rushing TDs and nearly 2,500 yards but that won’t matter to scouts if he’s missing throws. The backup QB is freshman Keytaon Thompson. I don’t think I have seen any of Thompson play this season but I am intrigued by the combination of his size (6’4″ 222lbs) and rushing ability (he played in nine games this season totaling 299 yards and 3 TDs rushing). Thompson played significant snaps in the Egg Bowl vs Ole Miss after Fitzgerald went down so at least he’s not coming in cold. He rushed for 121 yards and a score but only completed 13 of his 27 passes for 195 yards. I came across the name of DB JT Gray on NDT Scouting’s website while researching potential draft prospects from Mississippi State. He has played at both linebacker and safety and his listed measureables are similar to those of Jabril Peppers who was a first rounder last year; maybe he could be a poor man’s Pepper in the late rounds. Per Pro Football Focus, Gray did not allow a single TD in coverage this year and the passer rating against him was 70.4 which is above average.

Louisville has their own DB, Jaire Alexander, who excels in those same metrics. Alexander has also shut out opposing receivers and, this is not a typo, has allowed a passer rating against of just 17.7. For comparison, a QB who had one completion for negative nine yards would have a rating of 16. Alexander allowed just five receptions on the season and ranks 5th in PFF’s “Cover Snaps per Reception” stat, meaning he is in coverage a lot and allows few receptions. Alexander declared for the 2018 draft already and is skipping the bowl so you won’t get to see him play against Mississippi State but you’ll see him playing on Sundays soon. You may be thinking to yourself, how has he not mentioned Lamar Jackson yet? You’re right I may be burying the lede but Jackson has been talked about ad nauseam on every platform this season. That includes me too: I tagged Jackson in eight of my weekly The Watch List pieces and focused on him in my preseason preview. Talk of Jackson changing position is useless, in my opinion, because Jackson will go into the NFL as a quarterback. If anything, the brief spark of Deshaun Watson this season shows NFL teams that a lightning quick deep-ball thrower with accuracy issues can still lead a team to victory. Some team will take Jackson in the first round but I don’t think I’ll be taking him in any of my fantasy drafts. Jackson’s top target is junior WR Jaylen Smith. Smith is 6’4″ and 219lbs which is great size for a receiver but it’s his speed and deep-ball ability that makes him a threat to the defense. To illustrate this, despite his size, only three of his 53 receptions came in the red zone; meanwhile he had seven receptions of 25+ yards. He totaled 873 yards and 6 TDs (he missed three games due to a wrist injury). I’m not as high on Smith as some, including our friends at Dynasty Command Center who have him as their WR5 for 2018 rookies. Jackson and Smith versus the stout Bulldog defense will be fun to watch, regardless of what you think of their NFL chances.

Defense wins championships, sure, but offense wins college bowl games. Take the Cardinals. Prediction: Louisville

AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Iowa State (7-5) vs. #20 Memphis (10-2), 12:30 p.m. (ABC)

Iowa State: 53rd scoring offense, 32nd passing offense, 112th rushing offense; 28th scoring defense, 81st passing defense, 31st rushing defense
Memphis: 2nd scoring offense, 8th passing offense, 31st rushing offense; 104th scoring defense, 123rd passing defense, 100th rushing defense

Iowa State had a whirlwind of a season. Get it? The Cyclones had a whirlwind…. okay, okay I’ll stop. Seriously though, Iowa State was a surprisingly fun team to watch this season. They had a number of interesting story lines throughout the season including 1) an up-and-coming head coach in Matt Campbell, 2) jack-of-all-trades Joel Lanning playing at both LB and QB in a number of games, 3) the continued emergence of RB David Montgomery, 4) the revolving door at quarterback including underclassmen, walk-ons and transfers and 5) the upset of #3 Oklahoma and #4 TCU. Montgomery is fantastic. He has good speed, is amazing at breaking tackles and gaining yards after contact and is a reliable receiver. He is just a sophomore so he’s not coming out in 2018 but there’s a chance he is my top RB next year. Leading receiver Allen Lazard is a 6’5″ red zone monster (15 of his 25 career touchdowns came inside the twenty). I think Lazard is underappreciated as far as draftniks go. I had him as WR13 a few weeks ago but will likely move him up into the WR10 range. The Iowa State defense has played well most of the season and is led by emotional leader Joel Lanning (the aforementioned former QB). As much as I enjoy rooting for Lanning, I don’t think he’ll be considered by NFL teams.

Memphis has an incredibly efficient and high scoring offense that will be fun to watch against the solid Iowa State defense. QB Riley Ferguson is a former Tennessee transfer who has played exceptionally well in his two seasons at Memphis. Ferguson throws a lot of touchdowns, completes more than 63% of his passes, has never thrown more than 10 INTs in a season and has 10 career rushing touchdowns. He’s also 6’4″; like Ryan Finley at NC State he is just 210lbs so needs to add some weight for the NFL. I think Ferguson sneaks up NFL draft boards and gets taken on Day Two. Ferguson’s top target was undoubtedly WR Anthony Miller. I fell in love with Miller in the preseason when I jokingly compared him to Antonio Brown. In hindsight that comp may have been more accurate than I could have guessed. Miller caught 92 balls for 1,407 yards and 17 TDs. Miller has unreal hands, great body control and is tough. If you watched the AAC Championship game you might recall how exhausted and banged up he was yet he was on the field and still making plays when it mattered the most. I want him on my NFL team and my fantasy team and I don’t care what pick it takes. In September, I had him at 2.02 for 2018 rookie drafts but now I would even be willing to part with a late first for him.

By the rankings this may not be the best game of the day but I bet it’s the most entertaining. The Tigers offense is just too good to stop. Prediction: Memphis

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl, #11 Washington Huskies (10-2) vs. #9 Penn State (10-2), 4 p.m. (ESPN)

Washington: 17th scoring offense, 73rd passing offense, 39th rushing offense; 6th scoring defense, 19th passing defense, 2nd rushing defense
Penn State: 7th scoring offense, 26th passing offense, 62nd rushing offense; 7th scoring defense, 43rd passing defense, 17th rushing defense

This PAC-12 vs Big Ten matchup definitely has less going for it than the Ohio State vs USC matchup but it’s still a game with some key NFL prospects to keep an eye on. Thankfully, Penn State RB Saquon Barkley confirmed back in November that he planned to play in the team’s bowl game.

Penn State was looking like a favorite to make the playoff when they were ranked #2 in late October but back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State put an end to that. Even the most casual of fan knows about Barkley and I have covered him exhaustively for RSO. In fact, I tagged Barkley in thirteen different articles this season. My deepest dive on Barkley came in the preseason in my Big Ten conference preview. At some point you just run out of things to say but he was so dominant at points he just demanded to be discussed. Barkley ran the ball less this year but he increased his yards per attempt (5.5 to 5.7) and became more involved as a receiver (47 receptions, 594 yards and 3 TDs). He’ll likely be a Top 5 NFL Draft pick and will be the unanimous 1.01 pick in fantasy rookie drafts. QB Trace McSorley is also draft eligible but he will probably return for another season. He won’t be able to improve on his size (just 6’0″ and 202lbs) but he can continue to improve his efficiency and yards per attempt. The pass catcher with the highest draft grade in my opinion will be TE Mike Gesicki. Gesicki went for 51-501-9 this season and had one of my favorite highlights of the season when he hurdled McSorley after a touchdown. Penn State keeps track of some combine-like measureables and supposedly Gesicki ran a 4.54 40 yard dash – that is crazy good for somebody his size. I expect that number to increase at the combine, it must be the benefit of some “home cooking,” but still he’s looking at a favorable size/speed comp to the likes of Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce. The first round may be too early for Gesicki realistically but he’s a Day Two guy at worst. The Nittany Lions’ top defensive prospect is senior safety Marcus Allen. I researched him in the preseason and was nonplussed. I felt he needed to show scouts that he was equally as good in coverage as he is in run support. He still succeeded in run support (just two missed tackles against the run per Pro Football Focus) but he only had one interception (the first of his career) and had just two pass break-ups (just ten in his career). He’ll probably start his career as a situational player and won’t be an IDP factor right away unless he can prove he should stay on the field for every snap.

Washington QB Jake Browning finished 6th in Heisman voting in 2016 after a huge 43 TD season. Unfortunately for Huskies fans, that season was the outlier for Browning as he returned to his 2015 levels with just 18 TDs this year. His completion percentage did increase significantly this year (62.1% to 68.8%) but all of his other rate stats decreased. One of my favorite plays in football is the quick kick from a quarterback and Browning excels at that: he has 11 career punts, averaging about 35 yards per kick. The two offensive standouts are WR Dante Pettis and RB Myles Gaskin. I’ve never been a huge fan of either and I am willing to admit it is probably an east coast bias since I don’t see them play that often. I previewed Pettis in the preseason and expressed concerns that his size would limit him in the NFL. Pettis played in thirteen games each of his first three seasons so he’s avoid any long-term injuries but he is currently hurt (but probabl for the bowl game). He is a good receiver (averaging 40 receptions, 500 yards and 6 TDs per year over his four year career) but a better punt returner (9 career punt return TDs, including 4 in 2017). He’s currently my WR8 and should find himself drafted in the late second round. RB Myles Gaskin is ranked a little lower in my positional rankings (RB13) but he’s somebody that I definitely need to revisit. Gaskin’s numbers are great and if they were attached to a different name I would probably be higher on him. He rushed for 1,282 yards this season and rushed for 19 TDs. He also added 18 grabs for 228 yards and 3 receiving scores. He has been consistent, and healthy, throughout his three year career. He’s gone over 1,300 total yards each year and has 47 career TDs. He’s slightly undersized (think Theo Riddick) but not so small that he can’t play a heavy role in an NFL offense. On defense, LB Azeem Victor and DT Vita Vea are both likley Day Two prospects. Victor’s college career has been marred by injuries and off-field issues (he was suspended to start 2017 for a failed drug test and was suspended late in the season after a DUI arrest). In 2015, his only full season, Victor had 95 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks and an interception. Vea is an agile, space-eating DT who could end up going in the late first if he dominates the combine. Chris Trapasso of CBS Sports had Vea going 19th overall in his December 5th mock; Trapasso thinks that Vea may be the most physically strong prospect in the entire draft class.

Given the strength of the two defenses, I expect this one to be a low scoring affair. I’ll take the team with the best player on the field. Prediction: Penn State

Capital One Orange Bowl, #10 Miami (10-2) vs. #6 Wisconsin (12-1), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Miami: 58th scoring offense, 50th passing offense, 73rd rushing offense; 21st scoring defense, 52nd passing defense, 44th rushing defense
Wisconsin: 31st scoring offense, 95th passing offense, 21st rushing offense; 4th scoring defense, 4th passing defense, 1st rushing defense

The Orange Bowl may feature two Top 10 teams but I’m just not finding the matchup all that intriguing. I was down on Miami for most of the season before the team imploded against an unranked Pitt team and laid an egg against Clemson in the ACC Championship game. At least Wisconsin was competitive in their conference championship and proved that they belonged in the playoff conversation despite a weak schedule.

Hurricanes QB Malik Rosier was overrated, in my opinion, during Miami’s unbeaten run to start the season. He ranks 89th in adjusted completion percentage according to Pro Football Focus; that metric is meant to give a better picture of a quarterback’s accuracy by not counting spikes/throwaways against them and by giving them credit for drops. Per their stats, the Miami receivers dropped 22 passes, which is about average, but even after factoring those back in he is still at the bottom of the list (there are only twelve worse qualifying QBs). Rosier did rush for 427 yards and 5 TDs which helps make up for his negative plays but it’s not enough in big games. Case in point: Rosier was pulled late in the Pitt game to give redshirt sophomore backup Evan Shirreffs a shot. Shirreffs had five career passing attempts at that point so in that moment the coaches though he gave them a better shot than Rosier (predictably, Shirreffs did nothing and was replaced by Rosier). Miami lost RB Mark Walton early in the season but sophomore Travis Homer has emerged in his stead. Homer has over 1,100 total yards and scored 8 TDs. He had a big game against #3 Notre Dame (18 rushes for 146 yards) but had just 55 combined rushing and receiving yards in the late losses to Pitt and Clemson. If Miami is to stand a chance against Wisconsin’s great defense it will fall on Walton. Senior DE Chad Thomas had 30 total pressures per PFF and finished the year with 3.5 sacks. Safety Jaquon Johnson improved his stats in 2017 to end with 85 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries and 4 INTs. Miami’s defense did get better in 2017 but gone are the days when the NFL Draft was littered with Hurricane defenders; Thomas and Johnson could be mid-round picks but I doubt anybody goes higher than that.

Speaking of defense, Wisconsin’s is a juggernaut. They are 4th in scoring, 4th against the pass and 1st against the run. They don’t have a weakness and it’s unfortunate we did not get to see them play a stronger schedule. We may never know if this was a historic unit or just a product of a soft schedule. Their leader, LB TJ Edwards, is good in both run support (27th ranked in run stop percentage per PFF) and in coverage (4 INTs). According to DraftTek.com, he’s the 11th ranked prospect in the conference and according to WalterFootball.com he’s looking at a 3rd-5th round grade. Edwards may not be a Watt brother but he’s keeping up the tradition of productive Wisconsin linebackers with initials instead of first names! The Badgers offense is all about freshman RB Jonathan Taylor. Taylor had 1,847 rushing yards and 13 TDs this season and he finished 6th in Heisman voting. Those rushing yards ranked him first in the conference and third in the FBS. Not bad for a three star recruit. Taylor still has two more seasons before he’s draft eligible so we have to wait and see what he develops into but he’ll probably be on my Heisman watch list for next season. Aside from offensive tackle Beau Benzschawel, the best offensive prospect is TE Troy Fumagalli. Fumagalli has a long injury history that I discussed in my Big Ten preview, but I still like his chances in the NFL. He’s more of a traditional TE than the “move TE” that is en vogue right now so that may lower how high he is drafted. Regardless of where he is drafted, he will be on the field from day one because of his above average blocking ability. Fumagalli led the team with 43 receptions, 516 yards and 4 TDs. He has already declared for the NFL Draft but Fumagalli has confirmed that he will play in the bowl. Fumagalli may not be a fantasy factor in his rookie season but he’ll still be worth a third round pick.

I don’t have a doubt in my mind that Wisconsin will win this one. Prediction: Wisconsin

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty

More Analysis by Bob Cowper