NFL Trade Deadline Moves
The NFL trade deadline usually produces as much excitement as eating tuna fish out of the can for lunch. Early trade deadline date, hard salary cap, and rules curbing trades for cap space tend to limit the amount and scale of trades which occur. This year saw the most action on the trade front in years. I take a look at some of the most fantasy relevant trades that potentially impact your RSO teams.
The NFL trade deadline usually produces as much excitement as eating tuna fish out of the can for lunch. Early trade deadline date, hard salary cap, and rules curbing trades for cap space tend to limit the amount and scale of trades which occur. This year saw the most action on the trade front in years. I take a look at some of the most fantasy relevant trades that potentially impact your RSO teams.
Jay Ajayi
Philadelphia receives RB Jay Ajayi
Miami receives 2018 4th Round Draft Pick
Miami head coach Adam Gase clearly was not happy with the offensive performance of the Dolphins this season giving an epic post-game tirade following the 40-0 beat down against Baltimore. The shakeup starts with Miami moving Ajayi to Philadelphia. What does Philadelphia get with AJayi? They obtain a player who forced more missed tackles over the last two seasons than any other running back in the NFL. It is a low-risk move for a player on a cheap 5th round rookie contract that runs through the 2018 season giving up only a likely late fourth round pick. The move is somewhat odd in that Ajayi joins a crowded backfield including LeGarrette Blount (who is quietly having a very productive season), Wendell Smallwood, and Corey Clement on a team which has never really featured a running back under head coach Doug Pederson instead relying on a committee approach.
What does this mean for Ajayi? The third year pro’s situation improves drastically moving from the lowest scoring team in the league with one of the worst offensive lines to one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL with the best record so far. Philadelphia Ajayi’s role this season seems questionable given the depth in the backfield and lack of traditional “workhorse” role on the Eagles but the upside is tremendous on a high-powered offense if he were to assume a primary role. His longer-term prospects look good on a solid team led by an ascending quarterback. This move correspondingly reduces Blount’s value to minimal at best.
Also remember Ajayi’s likely replacements in Miami, Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake. While neither is a priority in shallow leagues on this low-scoring offense, any potential starting running back has some value in deeper RSO leagues.
Jimmy Garoppolo
San Francisco receives QB Jimmy Garoppolo
New England receives 2018 2nd Round Draft Pick
In another interesting trade, San Francisco presumably gets their quarterback of the future in exchange for an early second round pick. The move gives San Francisco a lot of flexibility in next year’s draft, including potentially setting up the 49ers to receive a ransom in draft capital in exchange for one of the top picks in the first round. New England receives one of the most valuable picks in the entire draft on a cost-benefit basis with the high second pick. One must wonder if New England maximized Garoppolo’s trade value if earlier reports from this offseason were true about teams making first round-plus offers but it is still solid value for a player of no immediate use on an expiring contract. The Patriots are clearly committed to Brady for the near future with no backup plan for the future.
Garoppolo was originally a second round pick by New England and has performed superbly in his professional appearances so far, albeit in a very limited sample size. He goes to a team with one of the most highly-thought-of offensive minds in the game, Kyle Shanahan, leading them. The trade also imparts risk on Garoppolo though. He almost certainly would have received a large contract this offseason based on very limited work in the NFL. Garoppolo might receive substantially less from San Francisco or in free agency if his performance in the last portion of the season does not meet expectations. This is a move that could go very poorly for the 49ers. San Francisco gave up a premium draft pick on a team going nowhere this year for a player in the final year of his contract. This move potentially looks very foolish in the offseason if the 49ers a) do not sign Garoppolo or b) are forced to franchise tag him at high costs (see the ongoing Kirk Cousins saga).
Garoppolo holds little value in RSO leagues this season with a difficult schedule to finish the season and likely not assuming starting duties until after San Francisco’s bye in week 12.
Kelvin Benjamin
Buffalo receives WR Kelvin Benjamin
Carolina receives 2018 3rd Round Draft Pick and 2018 7th Round Draft Pick
It has been one strange season for the Buffalo Bills. In what many considered a rebuilding year, the Bills find themselves at 5-2 just behind the New England Patriots for first place in the AFC East. The roster makeover at wide receiver continues with the addition of Benjamin after Buffalo traded for WR Jordan Matthews in the preseason and trading away former 1st round WR Sammy Watkins prior to that.
This is not a good move fantasy-wise for the hulking receiver this season. Benjamin goes from a team with the 10th most passing attempts to the one with least attempts in the entire NFL. Even the most targeted wide receiver in Buffalo has little fantasy value on a run-first offense. What value there is in the passing game is centered on the running backs and tight ends where running back LeSean McCoy leads the team in targets and receptions almost doubling the next leading receiver, tight end Charles Clay, who has been out of action for weeks. Jordan Matthews’ limited fantasy value is gone in all but the deepest of leagues with the arrival of Benjamin. Charles Clay gets bumped down. Tyrod Taylor is likely the only fantasy relevant player helped with this trade.
Duane Brown
Seattle receives OT Duane Brown and 2018 5th Round Draft Pick
Houston receives 2018 3rd Round Draft Pick and 2019 2nd Round Draft Pick*
Seattle bolsters their offensive line with left tackle Duane Brown after seeing him first-hand this past weekend. Brown is a massive upgrade at left tackle for the Seahawks, replacing PFF’s worst graded tackle on one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The move tremendously helps Russell Wilson and also potentially upgrades the Seattle run game. Quality, blind-side tackles rarely become available because there are so few in the league. The steep price could be well worth the cost to Seattle if they address Brown’s contract issues.
Brown’s contract demands, for which he sat out the first six weeks in the season and were never addressed by the Texans, and his resentment toward Houston’s owner eventually led to the trade. The Texans received fair value for a player who clearly was not excited about staying in Houston. The loss of a premium left tackle will be felt, especially by a developing young quarterback, but is somewhat mitigated Deshaun Watson’s mobility out of the pocket.
*Note this trade originally included CB Jeremy Lane who reportedly failed a physical.
A.J. McCarron
In a trade that failed to go through, the Cincinnati Bengals agreed to trade A.J. McCarron to the Cleveland Browns. Unfortunately the Browns, as only the Browns could do, failed in reporting the trade to the NFL office by the trade deadline. McCarron is left as a backup in Cincinnati and Cleveland continues to make even the most basic NFL mechanisms look difficult.
Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.
