GM’s Guide to Matt Waldman’s RSP
There are a lot of dynasty resources out there but none of them is as comprehensive as Matt Waldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP). There are two parts to the RSP, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio proper which is released before the NFL draft, and the Post-Draft update. First time readers will undoubtedly be overwhelmed as I was in 2015 when I first bought the RSP but don’t be dissuaded! After two years, I am far from an RSP expert but I truly believe that the amount of research you do is directly correlated to your long term dynasty success. Whether you spend an hour with the RSP, cherry picking paragraphs about your favorite players, or power through the full 1,600 page document, you’ll be a more informed dynasty owner because of it. It should be no surprise that the RSP is not perfect in it’s predictions and conclusions, nothing can be given such a fickle topic, but don’t let that discourage you from purchasing again in the future even if you miss on somebody this season; past issues are a treasure trove of information when players change teams or hit free agency. Because of the unique cap/contract format of RSO, I thought it would be helpful to present some tips for RSO owners to get the most out of the RSP. For more information about the RSP, testimonials and details on how to purchase it, click here.
Pair Rookie Productivity Charts with Depth Chart Notes
The RSP has rookie productivity charts for each position. These charts are based on the last ten years of rookies and show the average production for a player who had a certain threshold of passes/rushes/receptions. For example, there were 63 RBs in the sample who had at least 100 rushing attempts in their rookie season; those backs averaged nearly 1,000 yards from scrimmage and 6 TDs. When the threshold increases, obviously so does the production (i.e. a better rookie will end up getting more touches). I find it interesting that there seems to be a sweet spot in the 150-200 carry range that can net you some great value with your RSO rookie draft picks. Somebody like Zeke Elliot who is going to be a starter from day one is an obvious early draft pick but does not offer much value. The key is being able to identify which rookie backs will get the opportunity to fall in that 150-200 carry range where their value is maximized. In 2016, the rookie backs who did were Rob Kelley (168 carries) and Devontae Booker (174). Kelly was far off the radar in May of last year for RSO owners, Booker, though, is the real takeaway. Similar to the Redskins and Matt Jones, the Broncos have been hesitant to commit to CJ Anderson and ended up drafting Booker in 2016. If you grabbed Booker in your 2016 rookie draft despite him not being the immediate starter, you were rewarded with some decent output and hopefully a future starter. Jordan Howard ended up exceeding the 200 carry mark, but is a further example of a shaky incumbent leading to a great rookie pick. By pairing Waldman’s rookie productivity charts with his depth chart notes, you can find rookies like Booker who have a shorter path to meaningful production and draft accordingly in the late 1st and early 2nd rounds of your rookie draft.
Pay Attention to ADP Value Designations
In the Post-Draft update, there is a lot of ADP data. My favorite way to view this data is through the lens of Waldman’s “value designations.” These notations are formatted like “over 5” or “under 5.” What that means is that Waldman feels that that player is either being over- or under-drafted by that many spots. This data is useful in two ways because it can help you avoid reaching for a player and it can also help you identify a bargain in RSO contract terms. Out of the top 24 rookies by ADP (so about the first two rounds of your rookie draft), Waldman identified C.J. Prosise, Pharoh Cooper and Kenyan Drake as over-drafted players. Prosise and Drake have some value but the difference between where you had to draft them based on ADP and where they were valued by Waldman’s research is about $500,000 (or, exactly how much you might need for that mid-season waiver wire savior). Instead, you could have realized the lack of talent at your pick, traded back, and drafted somebody like Tajae Sharp a little later and received a better return on investment. Conversely, players like Kenneth Dixon and Malcolm Mitchell were marked as under-drafted heading into 2016. Getting a bargain on a potential contributor when you draft these guys can help set you up for future salary cap success.
Don’t Fall in Love with Lottery Tickets
Those of you who are college football fans like myself will likely recognize some of the names in the “UDFAs to Watch” and the “Fantasy Waiver Wire Gems” sections in the Post-Draft update. Undoubtedly it’s a great list for deep dynasty leagues or those with a taxi squad but as an RSO owner it’s easy to get excited by this and suffer from confirmation bias. Don’t fall in love with them and take their inclusion as confirmation that you should take them in your RSO rookie draft. Most RSO leagues (check your settings) will not have a deep enough roster to warrant taking these players. If your league rosters 35+ players, maybe, but anything less and I think you should stay away. That is not to say that these players will never “hit,” I just mean that they are at least two years away from being relevant and until then it will tie up much needed salary cap space. It may not sound like much, but that $900,000 you commit to your 3rd round rookie pick could keep you from picking up that free agent RB you desperately need or keep you from completing a trade because you’d be receiving more salary than you have space for. Even if you have salary cap available, you’re going to be faced with cutting that lottery ticket and you’ll take the cap hit to add insult to injury. In 2015, one of those guys I fell in love with in the RSP and nearly drafted was Zach Zenner. On my 23-man roster, I would definitely have been forced to cut him before he became useful for a few games late in 2016. In 2016, two of those UDFAs I had my eye on were Peyton Barber and Jalen Richard. Ultimately, Barber offered minimal contribution despite the Bucs RB injuries; Richard looks like he could be a better pro than fantasy asset (especially in standard where his 29 receptions wouldn’t count) because his production was decent but inconsistent. Don’t forget, RSO is not like other dynasty formats where you can be more patient with a player. If you’re drawing a salary for my RSO team you better be closer to contributing or I’ll have to find somebody who is. That “what have you done for me lately” mentality is one of the things that makes RSO so similar to the real NFL.
Be sure to purchase the RSP on April 1 and get a head start on your league. Check back again after the draft and I will try to apply some of the above lessons to the 2017 draft class.
Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.
