IDP Start/Sit: Week 12
It’s the holiday season and I hope we all have a ton to be thankful for this year. Let’s see if we can find a bit more to be thankful for with some great lineup decisions for all your IDP teams out there!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show for them are what is the ECR over from Fantasy Pros for this week.
WEEK 11 RECAP
DL:
Start: Alex Highsmith (1 sack, 2 QB hits)
Start: Denico Autry (27 snaps, QB hit. Injured in the 2nd half but a lower performance up to that point)
Sit: Khalil Mack (1 hit, 1 solo)
LB:
Start: Frankie Luvu (Sack, 6 solos, 4 assists)
Start: Jamin Davis (2 solos, 3 assists)
Sit: Zaven Collins (3 solos, 3 assists)
DB:
Start: Dane Belton (2 solos. 59% of snaps, unstable usage and limited production, I’d pivot away moving forward)
Start: Tyrann Mathieu (5 solos, PD)
Sit: Kyle Dugger (Sack, 3 solos, 2 assists, PD. 90% of snaps! Dugger season might be in full effect moving forward)
START: Michael Danna, Kansas City Chiefs, DL53
Michael Danna has spent most of the season as a rotational pass-rusher for the Chiefs and has seen 53% of the snaps this year for their defense. Normally, not an ideal target to start. However, he has found a respectable 10.9% pass-rush pressure rate in his limited snaps. This week he gets the Los Angeles Rams who have the highest sack conversion from pressures allowed. In such a positive matchup, he shouldn’t need as many opportunities to deliver big-play upside. Additionally, the Rams should be in a negative game script that involved more passing, only increasing the opportunities for Danna. This is a deeper play, but should be available in the vast majority of leagues and has solid upside this week as a low-end DL3!
START: Lorenzo Carter, Atlanta Falcons, DL69
Lorenzo Carter has been a consistent figure in the Atlanta Falcons defensive front. He has seen 81% of the snaps so far this season, which is very strong usage for a DL position. Carter has a very favorable matchup against the Commanders who are allowing a 29% pressure rate and 17% sack conversion rate. Even though his pass-rush pressure rate is average at 7.8%. The nice bonus to his matchup this weekend as well, is his solid PFF run defense grade of 65.9 for the season. This paired with the Commanders focus on the run game (44% of plays are run) and are one of the higher plays ran per game over the last 3 weeks at 69.7. With these things considered, I like Lorenzo as a high-end DL3 candidate.
SIT: Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions, DL20
This pains me to even consider Hutch here, especially with such elite snap counts, 86% on the season. However, he has delivered some big performances this season (and I believe will be a strong dynasty asset) he doesn’t have an ideal matchup against the Buffalo Bills this weekend. The Bills have only allowed a 24% pressure rate, top third in the league, as well as 8% sack conversion, which is 2nd best. Hutchinson’s IDP performances have been brought up by some unlikely things to continue. He has 2 games with interceptions in the last 3 weeks as well as 3 of his 5.5 sacks coming in 1 game in week 2. Additionally, his tackle floor for snaps played his average at best, 2.3 tackles per game. You can always start Hutch if you need him, but if you got better DL2/3 options, I would fire them up instead.
START: Kaden Elliss, New Orleans Saints, LB29
Kaden Elliss, the man behind the man. With Pete Werner experiencing an injury and having surgery, Kaden has stepped up into that role and has he thrived for IDP purposes. He is in week 3 of that recovery so if you or someone else hasn’t already grabbed Elliss, do so and fire him up. The Saints are optimistic that Werner will try and play again this year, but until then we will roll with Kaden. The last two weeks he has seen snap percentages of 96% and 92% and he used them to deliver 2.5 sacks, 18 tackles, 3 QB hits, PD, and FF. His sack production has been very efficient but he has done well this whole year with a very strong 77.8 pass-rush PFF grade on the season. Last week, he topped out at his pass-rush grade with a 91.2 performance and I think this is more of what is to come. A great tackle floor with big-play, sack upside. Now, against the 49ers and their stronger pass protection, you’d think its less than ideal, but they are running nearly 69 snaps per game and the increased opportunity should balance out for Elliss this week. You should be looking at Elliss as a top 20 LB this week with next week looking the same too.
START: Dre Greenlaw, San Francisco 49ers, LB34
Dre Greenlaw has just consistently been an efficient tackler and continues to do so this season at 14.9% and only missed 6 tackles on the season so far. Greenlaw tends to take the coverage side of the RB in most situations between him and Fred Warner. The matchup with the Saints and Alvin Kamara means Greenlaw can take that tackle efficiency and increased opportunities facing off against the Saints and Kamara. This matchup favors his Greenlaw’s ability and playstyle. As a note, for LB we love to find someone with near 100% snaps and the last 3 weeks have been rough for Greenlaw, but don’t let that fool with you and ejection in week 10 and starters being pulled in a blowout in week 11. Don’t let those numbers shy you away from Greenlaw. He is a strong candidate for LB2 this week and most of the weeks going forward.
SIT: Alex Singleton, Denver Broncos, LB27
Alex Singleton is Mr. Efficiency. He has a career tackle efficiency of 17.6% and this season is sitting at a cool 19.7% efficiency this season. While this is great, you still need the volume to make it count for overall production. Singleton has passed Jonas Griffith as LB2 on the depth chart, but he is still only seeing 59% of the snap count. While normally he can turn that into a usable week for IDP, his matchup against the Carolina Panthers is not ideal. Their offense has struggled all year and they are running the worst, 55.6 plays per game on the season. This does not bode well for a strong week for Alex and I would be looking elsewhere this week for an LB3.
START: Grant Delpit, Cleveland Browns, DB29
Grant Delpit has seen very close to 100% of the defense’s snaps for the entire season. Along with the elite usage, he has taken 56% of his total snaps from the “sweet spot” (DL, box, slot). This is great usage for any safety in IDP and as such he is a strong DB2/3 candidate on that alone. Combined with a matchup against the Buccaneers this weekend who run 67 plays per game and 72 over the last 3 means even more opportunities. And Tom Brady is leading the league in passing attempts from 0-9 yards this season, which lines up greatly with players in that “sweet spot”. Delpit should be a strong DB2 candidate DB1 upside.
START: Vonn Bell, Cincinnati Bengals, DB32
Vonn Bell is another safety with elite snap usage, with 98% played for the entirety of the season. He is sitting at 56.1% of his total snaps as well from the “sweet spot”. His matchup this week, however, does not have a pass heavy team for him to feast upon for IDP production. He gets a run-heavy team that will continue to attack the middle of the field with their run game. This gives Bell a much stronger floor than his DB32 ranking justifies. It is a solid floor play this week, with a lower ceiling, but this still makes Bell a high-end DB3 to a low-end DB2.
SIT: Kerby Joseph, Detroit Lions, DB13
Kerby Joseph has been a pleasant surprise for the Detroit Lion’s defense this year as a rookie coming on due to injuries. Once given the opportunity he has seen almost a near perfect 100% snap count. And with those snaps, he has found a way to deliver big plays with 3 interceptions and 5 PDs. The INTs are not something we should rely on this point but take more into his upside. However, teams have been taking the cover-2, or two high safeties approach against the Bills offense this year, which leads to a lower tackle efficiency overall and creates a great dependency on big-plays, which Kerby has delivered at times this year. Joseph has strong usage and a matchup that should allow for a higher snap count this week, but his floor feels too low for me to confidently use him as a DB1/2 this week. His level sits as DB3 for me but if you want to plug him in focusing on big-play opportunities, it does exist.
