The Watch List: 2019 Week 5 Preview
Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players and games from college football that deserve your attention. To view more of my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. Check back throughout the season as The Watch List will continue to let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.
Storylines to Watch
UCF’s Cinderella Run Ends: The Golden Knights fairy tale has come to a close after a close loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers last Saturday. The last time UCF lost a regular season game was all the way back in 2016 when Scott Frost was in his first season as head coach in Orlando. Current coach Josh Heupel may have been at the reigns when the chariot transformed back into a pumpkin, but Heupel has found his prince in quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Gabriel, a true freshman from Hawaii, has shined in his first month. During the Pitt matchup, the broadcasters repeatedly mentioned how injured quarterback McKenzie Milton, also from Hawaii, has played a large role in Gabriel’s ascent from third-string to starter. Maybe the Golden Knights are shaping up to be more “made for TV movie” than “fairy tale” this season.
USC’s Quarterback Injuries Continue: Speaking of third-string quarterbacks, against all odds the Trojans remain #21 in the new AP Top 25 poll. After losing sophomore starter JT Daniels in the opener, USC lost freshman Kedon Slovis to a concussion against #10 Utah. Junior Matt Fink filled in admirably, throwing for 350 yards and 3 TDs while completing 70% of his passes. Having two steady signal callers with big game experience might be key for Clay Helton down the stretch. I’m interested to see who he names as the starter when both Slovis and Fink are healthy, or if he plays both. USC has a tough road ahead with matchups on the road against #17 Washington and #10 Notre Dame (luckily they get a week off in between). If they can split those two contests, I think USC would have to be the favorite to come out of the Pac-12 South.
Games to Watch
#21 USC at #17 Washington, 3:30pm Saturday on FOX: This game is a must for me because it’s a rare afternoon kickoff for these two PAC-12 powerhouses. Above I outlined the quarterback carousel that USC has been riding but there’s no such worry at Washington because Jacob Eason has been on fire to start the season. He’s already topped 1,000 passing yards and has ten scores to just two interceptions. WR Aaron Fuller is leading the team with 21 receptions and might also lead the nation in highlight reel catches. The Trojans have their own 2019 NFL Draft hopefuls in WRs Michael Pittman Jr. (31-437-3) and Tyler Vaughns (27-370-2). Pittman had an incredible 10-232-1 game against Utah and was easily the favorite target of fill-in Matt Fink — read more about Pittman below. The last three battles between these two have been low scoring but I’ll be taking the over and hoping for an offensive explosion. My prediction: USC 39, Washington 35
Colorado State at Utah State, 7:30pm Saturday on CBSSN: I’m not loving the primetime slate this week so I might instead give some love to the Mountain West on Saturday night. In case you haven’t gotten the pun yet: the main draw in this matchup will be Aggies’ QB Jordan Love. Love started the year strong with a 416-3-3 outing in a close loss to Wake Forest, however he hasn’t put up the stats in the last two victories against Stony Brook and SDSU. The game sets up to be strength versus strength because Colorado State held Love to just 169-1-0 last season and their passing defense is even better this year (allowing less than 200 passing yards per game). I will be watching to see if Love can overcome. My prediction: Utah State 19, Colorado State 13
Players to Watch
Michael Pittman, WR, USC
Michael Pittman’s stock is on the rise and draft fans like you and I need to start investing our attention. As I mentioned above, Pittman had a huge game against #10 Utah, finishing with 10 catches for 232 yards and 1 TD. Last Saturday was far from an aberration, in fact it was just the latest “big game” for the senior. Dating back to the beginning of October 2018, Pittman has amassed 61 receptions, 986 yards and 8 TDs. Over a nine game stretch, he’s nearly averaging 7-110-1. His production is even more impressive when you consider that Pittman continues to battle for targets with two other future NFL receivers (Tyler Vaughns and Amon-Ra St. Brown).
In addition to his outstanding output, Pittman has the size and pedigree that NFL teams covet. He’s listed at 6040/220 and projected to run in the 4.52 range by DraftScout.com (think: Kenny Golladay). His father played in the NFL for eleven years and had a very productive career as a pass catching running back.
“All that’s great,” you say, “but what about his tape?” So far there isn’t much film out there but we do have one tape from last year (UCLA) and highlights from this season. I perused both so I could get a feel for Pittman’s game beyond his stats and size. As you’d expect, Pittman’s primary role is as an outside possession receiver who can excel along the sideline. His ability to catch the ball with his hands at the high point also allows him to win jump balls down the field. He does not have breakaway speed but is functionally fast. In my limited review, I did not notice much success as a blocker but that’s secondary at this point. Pittman does show some versatility in his deployment — he occasionally lines up from the slot or in motion — so I am hopeful that we’ll see positive route running skills when we study him further this offseason.
I’ll leave you with this play that Pittman pulled off against Utah. He gets inside leverage against the corner and jets upfield. The ball is placed between the two converging defenders and Pittman is able to slow himself, jump and hands-catch the ball. He has the balance to keep his feet as he comes down and is able to fend off the tackle all the way to the end zone. The score put USC up by two scores and proved to be a pivotal moment in the upset.
— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) September 25, 2019
LeVante Bellamy, RB, Western Michigan
I first wrote about LeVante Bellamy back in July as part of my MAC season preview. In that writing, I said that Bellamy was “a burner…and it shows on his highlight reels.” At the time, I was basing my speed assumptions on a report that he ran a 4.32 laser time in 2018. Now the school is reporting that he ran a 4.28 laser time this offseason! If that speed holds true throughout the draft process, Bellamy will be one of the fastest prospects we’ve seen in years.
Bellamy’s 165-2 outburst against Syracuse last week wasn’t the first time he showed up against the Power 5 (in which I include BYU). Since he returned from a 2016 ACL injury, he has played seven games against higher echelon foes. In those games, Bellamy averages 99.9 yards from scrimmage and scored four times (ironically all against Syracuse).
As a runner, Bellamy pairs his angle-busting speed with above average play strength. He’s nimble enough to tiptoe along the sideline to gain an extra yard or two. He uses his compact frame (5090/190) to his advantage by squeezing through tight spaces. In the below play, you can see Bellamy making the most of his size and speed as she crashes through the line, angles towards the sideline and then sprints for the goal line.
— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) September 25, 2019
In addition to being the primary ball carrier, Bellamy is a good outlet receiver and also has experience as a kick returner. I hope to see more of him in these situations as it is more likely to translate to an NFL role for a player of his skill set.
Two cliches come to mind as I close my thoughts on Bellamy. First: you can’t teach speed. Second: the best ability is availability. Unfortunately he missed significant time in 2016 and 2017 and got banged up last week too. I hope he can stay healthy because Bellamy’s speed makes him a late rounder with sleeper potential.
Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths. So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113. This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. When studying a player I rely on game film “cuts” which are most frequently found on Youtube. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels. Keep in mind these highlight reels are the best plays of that player. When I have the option, I will choose to watch a game versus the better defense. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players. When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:
- Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
- Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
- Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
- Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
- NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
- Draft history: drafthistory.com
- Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
- Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
- Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
- Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
- Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com
Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.
