The Watch List: National Championship Preview
Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. During the college bowl season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. Note: times listed are Eastern.
The finish line is in sight, the marathon that is the bowl season is nearly over, just one more game remaining. While listening to ESPNU Radio these past few days (a must-listen for anybody with SiriusXM) a number of callers and pundits have expressed disappointment in an all-SEC championship. I say, “who cares,” because they are the two best teams in the country in my mind. Let’s not forget that despite all the banter about Bama’s playoff resume, they were still ranked #1 in the AP Poll until they lost to Auburn on Nov 25. Georgia didn’t get that high but was #2 for about a month in the middle of the year. I have covered these two teams a lot this season so I wanted to avoid rehashing the same analysis and the same talking points. So, I decided to go with a “tale of the tape” type preview. I will compare the teams’ various units to see who has the advantage before making my prediction.
Quarterback: Alabama
Ironically the first unit I looked at was probably the hardest for me to determine my pick. Jake Fromm leads Jalen Hurts in most passing categories but I give Hurts the nod for two reasons: 1) his experience and 2) his ability to protect the ball. Hurts may only be a sophomore but he’s literally been here before. This game will be Hurts fourth College Football Playoff game. He has played okay in those games but it’s less about what he does do and more about what he doesn’t do: turn the ball over. Hurts has just one interception and two fumbles lost this season. Fromm has five and two – not a huge increase but he had far fewer “touches” this season than Hurts. The two had basically the same number of passing attempts (248 vs 259) but Hurts had a hundred more carries and played in one less game. Fromm will likely outplay Hurts as a passer but I’d rather have Hurts.
Running Backs: Georgia
Both teams feature a stable of backs that contribute. Georgia uses Nick Chubb and Sony Michel almost equally but also sprinkles in freshman D’Andre Swift. Meanwhile, Alabama uses Damien Harris, Bo Scarborough, Najee Harris and Joshua Jacobs. Najee Harris and Jacobs only combined for three touches against Clemson but they were both utilized more during the regular season. Damien Harris is the lead back (19 carries for 77 yards last week) but Scarborough will still see plenty of action. Damien Harris averages 7.6 yards per carry on the season which is great but is actually eclipsed by Georgia’s Sony Michel (8.0). If you watched Georgia beat Oklahoma you were surely impressed by Michel. He out-touched Chubb 15-14 because of his four receptions. Michel is a better pass catcher than Chubb but his receiving against Oklahoma was mostly unexpected; he had just nine receptions on the season and only once in his four season career has he had four receptions in a game. My guess is that they did not feel they could trust freshman D’Andre Swift, the leading pass catcher among running backs this season, in pass protection which meant Michel getting more snaps on passing downs. If Georgia’s backs can match half their Rose Bowl output (367 total yards, 6 TDs) they’ll give the Bulldogs a shot.
Receivers: Alabama
Neither team had a receiver crack 60 receptions or 1,000 yards this season which is surprising to me. In an atmosphere that is so pass-heavy right now in college football, the nation’s two best teams are run-first and run-second offenses. Georgia WR Javon Wims arguably had the best game of his career in the Rose Bowl (6-73-1) but was not a huge factor in the offense until later in the season (25 of his 44 receptions came in the last five games, just 19 in the first eight). Alabama’s leading receiver is Calvin Ridley. Statistically, Ridley had the worst season of his career (59-935-4) but I’m not deterred: he’s still my WR1 for 2018 rookie drafts. Ridley is fast, has good hands, catches the ball away from his body and is a very good route runner. In Alabama’s rush oriented offense he may not put up big numbers but he’s a difference maker.
Defensive Line: Alabama
I’ll venture a guess that none of Georgia’s defensive lineman have a receiving touchdown this season like Daron Payne does now. That’s not why I’m taking the Tide’s line though, it’s the combination of Payne, Da’Shawn Hand and Raekwon Davis that clinches it. Payne, a 308lb DT, should be a first round pick this year if he declares early. Davis is a 6’7″ monster at DE who had 9.5 tackles for loss and 7 sacks this season; he was a factor in the Sugar Bowl with 5 tackles, 2 tackles for loss and a sack. Hand has been limited by injuries throughout his career but is still an early Day Two prospect. Phil Steele ranked Alabama as the 6th best d-line corps in the preseason and they lived up to that billing this season (for what it’s worth, Georgia was not far behind at 11th). Georgia’s Trenton Thompson was a top high school recruit, had a good sophomore season (capped off by an 8 tackle, 3 sack bowl game vs TCU) but didn’t live up to his potential in 2017 (just 35 tackles, no sacks). DE Jonathan Ledbetter recorded a sack and six tackles last week against Oklahoma so keep an eye on him too. There’s a funny pun somewhere in the names of Davis, Hand and Payne but all I can come up with is “On MonDavis, Da’Shawn’s Hands will cause Jake Fromm some Payne.” I’m sorry.
Linebackers: Georgia
Alabama is used to having a “next man up” mentality on defense because they graduate so many players to the NFL. That was no truer than at linebacker this year when they lost Reuben Foster and Ryan Anderson last season and then lost Shaun Dion Hamilton to injury earlier this year. The Tide’s linebacker room sustained another blow this week when they heard that Anfernee Jennings underwent knee surgery. Rashaan Evans has stepped up in the meantime, especially in the Sugar Bowl tallying 9 tackles and a sack. Evans has 9+ tackles in four of the five games since Shaun Dion Hamilton went down. Unquestionably, the best linebacker on the field will be Roquan Smith. Smith is a potential Top 10 pick in the Spring (a la Reuben Foster last year). He’s a tackle monster, 218 combined the last two years, and added 5.5 sacks in 2017. Not surprisingly, he had 11 tackles in the Rose Bowl and made a key tackle to prevent a first down late in the game. The Bulldogs’ best OLB is Lorenzo Carter. Carter is long at 6’6″ and plays well in coverage when he’s not rushing the passer (Carter was PFF’s 11th ranked pass rusher in the FBS). Like Smith, Carter also went for double digit sacks against Oklahoma; that’s the first time he’s done that in his career so maybe he has a knack for the big game. If Alabama wasn’t facing injuries this unit matchup would be closer but it would still be tough to beat consensus All-American Roquan Smith.
Secondary: Alabama
Similar to how Georgia has one standout in the linebacker unit, so does Alabama in the secondary. Meet Minkah Fitzpatrick, a guy guaranteed to go in the Top 5 in the NFL Draft (maybe higher if any of the QBs return to college). Fitzpatrick is also a consensus All-American despite battling injury this season. He missed a game but still managed 55 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks and an interception. That lone INT was a big drop from the six he had last season but it won’t hurt his draft stock, he has ball skills. What Fitzpatrick also has is versatility: he has played at both corner and safety and will be an immediate starter at the next level. Safety Ronnie Harrison and CB Anthony Averett will also get drafted high, maybe Day Two for both of them. Levi Wallace led the team in passes defended (14) and won SEC Defensive Player of the Week twice. He wasn’t even on my radar prior to writing this preview but the stats caught my eye. Safety Dominck Sanders is Georgia’s most well-rounded and productive DB with 37 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 4 INTs and 5 passes defended. He’s been a durable three year starter and could be a late round draft prospect but I honestly have not done any research on him. There won’t be a ton of passing in this one so spending more time on the secondary is probably not worth it, just don’t forget to pay attention to Fitzpatrick.
Specialists: Alabama
If this game turns out to be a defensive battle, the specialists will figure. Alabama punter JK Scott is an all-time great punter in SEC history (5th best average in the FBS since 2000). He averages 45.5 yards per punt for his career so he can flip the field and give the Tide the field position advantage. Georgia’s Cameron Nizialek is no slouch either; he averaged 44.9 yards per punt this year which was fourth best in the SEC and actually better than Scott this year. I have a feeling we could be seeing Hurts and Fromm starting a lot of drives from their own eleven yard line. The slight field goal kicking edge goes to Georgia’s Rodrigo Blankenship (17-20 on FG, 61-61 on PAT) over Andy Pappanastos (16-21, 54-54). Blankenship wears a sweet pair of rec-specs while he plays so maybe I should give him a larger advantage than I am. Neither team has returned a single kick or punt for a touchdown this season but now that I say that we’ll probably get two in the final. This unit matchup is almost too close to call. Since it’s close, I will go with Alabama because they have the best individual player in the bunch, JK Scott.
Prediction: Roll Tide
Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…
- Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
- Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
- Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
- Draft history: drafthistory.com
- Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
- Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
- Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty
Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.
