IDP Start/Sit: Week 6
It was not a great week 5, but just like teams dealing with all kinds of injuries, we need to press on and find the right guy this week and make our teams better for it! And we might want to even consider where we are going to be next week when we get hit with a ton of teams on their bye week as well.
Week 5 Recap
DL:
Start: David Onyemata (2 solos) 👎
Sit: Sam Hubbard (3 solos, FR) 👍
LB:
Start: Chad Muma (4 solos) 👎
Sit: Demario Davis (3 solos, 3 assists, 1 PD) 👎 – let’s call it a split
DB:
Start: Jayron Kearse (1 sack, 1 QB hit, 4 solos, 2 TFL) 👍
Sit: Jalen Pitre (7 solos, 4 assists, PD, FR) 👎
Week 6 Starts & Sits
START: Grady Jarrett, Atlanta Falcons, DL62 (DT17)
Grady Jarrett and the Atlanta Falcons have the lowest sack total in the NFL with only 5. Grady has 1 of those 5. Taking a team that has such low production doesn’t seem like such a good bet. However, the Washington Commanders are a salve that can help solve this! Sam Howell has been taking an average of 6 sacks a game so far this season and pressured 18 times! This is one of the best “get right” matchups for a team struggling to generate pressure.
Jarrett has been one of the few bright spots so far this season for the Falcons front. He is averaging 2.6 pressures a game. This has equated to a 9.4% pass-rush pressure rate which is an above-average rate. Average production meets optimal matchup, making Jarrett a confident play this weekend.
SIT: Jonathon Cooper, Denver Broncos, DL40 (ED29)
Cooper has had a nice start to the season, producing 24 tackles and 3 sacks on 11 pressures. However, most of his pass rush production has come in two games against the Chicago Bears and the Washington Commanders (8 pressures, 3 sacks). These are two of the most advantageous matchups so this upside needs to be taken with a grain a salt. His tackle floor has been solid for an edge defender and should maintain some value in that regard. But his matchup on Thursday against the Kansas City Chiefs leaves us concerned about his potential value this week.
Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes continue to limit the amount of pass-rush plays made against them. Mahomes is the least sacked QB this season (assuming at least 75 dropbacks). This is not an anomaly either, this is what Mahomes has been like for the last several years. If game script puts the Chiefs into a run-heavy situation, Cooper could provide value through his tackle efficiency, but with the limited pass-rush upside, I am looking to fade Cooper’s overall production this week.
START: Tyrel Dodson, Buffalo Bills, LB41
Tyrel Dodson, Dorian Williams, and Terrel Bernard were all up in the air this off-season as to who would be playing alongside Matt Milaon. It eventually fell into place they had very specific roles and specific backups. When Milano got injured, they started with Dorian Williams. But his poor play led to them bringing in Dodson. Dodson is not just a “warm body” stepping in either, he has shown competency in the Bills defense as well as an IDP. He has an average 11.2% tackle efficiency (just below league average) but he also has shown he can make plays in the pass-rush portion of his game with a strong 25.6% pass-rush pressure rate. Now these are smaller samples, but still positive-looking numbers.
Taking on the New York Giants this week is a favorable matchup for LBs and is what helps push Dodson into that ideal play this week. Linebackers playing against the Giants is the 3rd best scoring matchup for them. Dodson should see the full complement of snaps and enjoy the favorable matchup.
SIT: Fankie Luvu, Carolina Panthers, LB29
Frankie Luvu has been a revelation for IDP since bursting on to the scene last year as a consistent tackler with some great pass-rush upside and legit play-making ability. However, the Shaq Thompson injury has thrown a wrench in to this utilization for Luvu this season. His tackle floor has stayed relatively the same from his production last year, however, the pass-rush has seemingly shifted away from him as he has had to step up in place of Thompson. Last season he averaged 9.7 pass rush opportunities last season and was on pace for the same this year. But since week 3, he is averaging 3 opportunities per game. That limited upside definitely hurts Luvu’s upside. Additionally, it is a less than ideal matchup for LBs this week.
The Miami Dolphins are the 6th worst matchup for LB scoring for IDP as well. They have shown the ability to win via big plays and downfield, away from the primary locations of the LBs. This has limited the ability for LBs to rack up points and I don’t see this changing for the Panthers and Luvu this week.
START: Devon Witherspoon, Seattle Seahawks, DB37 (CB3)
Devon Witherspoon has burst on to the IDP scene this year. He has shown us a “quiet” game with 6 total tackles and a pass break up. He has shown us 11 tackles with 2 pass break ups. And most recently, 2 sacks, 5 tackles, and of course the pick 6. Now we obviously cannot count on some of these big plays to always break the way of our IDPs. However, in an opponent limited in its offensive options with the Cincinatti Bengals, I believe the Seahawaks will have a very precise approach in deploying Witherspoon to try and counter-attack and find ways to make big plays in their matchup.
SIT: Marcus Maye, New Orleans Saints, DB40 (S36)
Marcus Maye generally has some value as even as a deep safety, however, this week against the Houston Texans presents some limited upside. With CJ Stroud at the helm for the Texans, they have had a much more precise passing approach. This approach has led to them being focused on the intermediate portion of the field and limiting deep shots to specific times and situations. They also have protected the ball very well. Maye should have an OK floor with his historical production, but in a week with a limited upside based on his opponent and his alignment and utilization, I am not as confident in Marcus Maye’s production this week.
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