2020 Pre-Draft RSO Writer’s League Rookie Mock

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By Bernard Faller

Updated: April 19th 2020

The NFL Rookie draft is less than a week away. Rookie drafts for Reality Sports Online teams involve a number of considerations different than a normal dynasty league. Selected rookies are typically given three or four year contracts at, hopefully, a below market contract. RSO GMs then have the option of extending a player with franchise tags, extensions, or final year options (depending on the chosen settings in your league) which usually are near or above market value for a given player. This makes the initial rookie contract years potentially extremely valuable and the real measure of worth for a rookie contract.

The RSO Writer’s League crew produced a 1QB PPR 10-team mock draft recently to help demonstrate some of these concepts and how we viewed players pre-draft. Writers Matt Goodwin (also Co-host of the All About Reality Podcast), Nick Andrews, Bob Cowper, and myself also give takes on our selections in the mock. The article notes a few interesting items from this mock and differences from what you might see in other dynasty mocks and rankings:

The top-5 is a tier similar to other mocks and unlikely to change much after the draft. It consists of strong wide receiver prospects and running backs with 2^nd round or earlier NFL draft projection plus early big volume potential. Perhaps the fabled high draft-pick Kansas City running back changes this somewhat but I do not see a lot of difference post-draft.
The shorter window of RSO contracts, earlier production of running backs, and depth of wide receiver this year moved running backs up the board in our mock relative to other mocks. A lackluster tight end group and the long development window almost pushed TEs completely off the board.
The projected depth at wide receiver in the NFL draft will give a lot of variation in how fantasy drafts play out. There are many players who did not even make it into this mock who I would have a lot of interest in putting on my RSO rosters. 2^nd and 3^rd round picks, in particular, gain value when compared to previous seasons.

1.01 Jonathan Taylor RB

1.02 DeAndre Swift RB

1.03 Ceedee Lamb WR

1.04 JK Dobbins RB (Matt)

I’ve started to highlight my love for Dobbins on the All About Reality podcast and it’s all in the family as even my 10 year old son Jory came on the podcast to sing Dobbins’ praises. I love the strength and burst that Dobbins provides as an every-down back and his ability to get to the second level quickly is a differentiator. Additionally, he’s the best pass-blocking back in the class which will keep him on the field. Lastly, he had over 20 receptions in each of his three seasons at Ohio State, which is what you look for in a complete back. He was dominant against Clemson with 174 yards rushing a TD and 6 for 47 receiving, in spite of getting injured that game.

This tweet sums up Dobbins best:

https://twitter.com/BallBlastEm/status/1250291529232437251

While he weighed in one pound short of this at the combine, he meets all the other markers in pretty select company. If Dobbins lands in a place like Kansas City, he may be RB1 in the draft. Other landing spots that would be favorable include Tampa Bay, and much to my chagrin, Pittsburgh.

1.05 Jerry Jeudy WR (Nick)

Standard 1QB leagues will be more routine than their Superflex counterparts, and will likely figure to have the same five (5) players go off the board in various combinations. If you are drafting in any of these spots you can sit back and feel good about taking any of these players. That is what I did when selecting Jerry Jeudy out of Alabama without hesitation. What should be one of the safest picks in this year’s draft, Jeudy has the tools to be a day one NFL starter for all but the deepest of teams at receiver. Everyone notes how strong of a route runner he is and it shows. When he gets space off the line he can put the defender on skates if they commit to an early move in the route. My only concern at the present is that Jeudy is lighter (193lbs) than what I usually am looking for in a receiver and coupling that with his average shuttle time (4.53) means that if defenders get physical at the line he could struggle to get deep enough in the route tree to use his long speed. I don’t see his weight being an issue though, most guys put on 5-15lbs of muscle with the increase in professional training so select Jerry Jeudy at 1.05, chomp on your cigar like Iron Mike, and leave the draft knowing you got a solid talent at the mid-point of your first round.

1.06 Henry Ruggs WR (Bob)

To me it feels like there’s a tier break between picks 1.05 and 1.06 this year in standard leagues. The order of Dobbins, Jeudy, Lamb, Swift and Taylor will likely be contested all Summer long but I think the more interesting question is who comes next. It seems that consensus is settling on RB Cam Akers as the sixth player off the board but I decided to swing for the fences and went with Henry Ruggs instead. Ruggs has elite speed, his 4.27 40 time was the best at the combine, and will be a home run threat from Day One in the NFL. He’s not without question marks – namely his size and ability to play against more physical pro corners – but I don’t mind taking a risk if there isn’t a no-brainer pick on the board.

1.07 Cam Akers RB (Bernard)

This is the stage of drafts where opinions really vary. I decided on a potential three-down back in Cam Akers. He generally shows good patience, taking a slower pace, as a runner and adds a second-level gear when openings appear. His feet move in a nice quick motion to make cuts. Florida State’s much-talked-about struggles on the offensive line led to Akers taking a bad approach sometimes bailing outside. Akers displays plus feel for routes as a receiver against man and zone with reliable hands. Akers is also extremely young at 20 years old which provides upside with more development. Plus size, plus athleticism, plus receiving ability, and scheme diversity give Akers the chance of a huge running back role on Sundays.

1.08 Jalen Reagor WR

1.09 Tee Higgins WR

1.10 Justin Jefferson WR

2.01 Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB

2.02 Joe Burrow QB

2.03 Denzel Mims WR

2.04 Laviska Shenault WR (Bernard)

Perhaps no receiver embodies the “boom-bust” mantra more than Shenault. The wide receiver in a running back’s body was Colorado’s offense breaking off big plays with breakaway speed. He was a man among boys with the ball in his hand. Like a lot of college receivers, he mainly ran vertical routes with quick screens limiting his route tree, but does display nice breaks for a man of his size and plus skills attacking the football. Shenault was also used extensively in the run game, particularly around the goal line. A lengthy injury history and an injury-shortened NFL combine potentially push him down NFL and fantasy boards.

2.05 Tua Tagovailoa QB (Bob)

I feel less confident in this pick now in mid-April than I did back in mid-March because the most recent news surrounding Tua Tagovailoa has been more negative than positive. However, I still think there’s a lot to love about Tua — his improvisational ability, his effortless-looking arm talent, intangible leadership qualities — and believe there will be at least one team who is enamored with him. I like to leave every rookie draft with a quarterback because if they hit the value is fantastic. Despite his injury concerns, Tua is still likely to be the second or third passer off the board and that means he’ll be a factor in your 2020 RSO league so I’d be happy to grab him in the mid-second.

2.06 Justin Herbert QB (Nick)

In standard leagues, I always like to grab a QB in the second round if I think a talented enough one is still on the board. While not as valuable as in Superflex, quarterbacks still seem to be overpaid in 1QB leagues due to their gaudy point totals and longevity of careers, compared to the other positions. Grabbing rookies that make <$2M per season gives a great advantage to a team over one with a costly veteran. With that being said Justin Herbert from Oregon is an ideal candidate to take if you are a team drafting in the back half of the second round. While he is not in the same tier as Tua Tagovailoa or Joe Burrow he is likely going inside the top 15 and maybe even top 10 of the real draft if a team finds a trade partner. For a guy who is 6’6” he has surprising mobility and just enough speed (4.68-40YD) that he wouldn’t be a liability if the offensive line that he is drafted behind isn’t a superbly talented group. Landing spot will be key for his development but with many current starters nearing the final years of their careers it wouldn’t be a stretch to see Herbert as a top 15 QB in a couple of years.

2.07 Jordan Love QB (Matt)

Basically just going Konami Code upside for someone with raw talent at the QB position in a one-QB league. Showed poor decision making in his final year at Utah State, but if he finds the right system has the arm strength and athletic ability to be more like Patrick Mahomes than DeShone Kizer.

2.08 Zack Moss RB

2.09 Anthony McFarland RB

2.10 Ke’Shawn Vaughn RB

3.01 Eno Benjamin RB

3.02 Lamichel Perine RB

3.03 Brandon Aiyuk WR

3.04 Antonio Gibson RB (Matt)

Just a playmaker who can play both RB and WR and could be drafted as either. He’s electric and shows fantastic vision and route-running ability. Coming from Memphis, which has a recent history of producing playmakers like Darrell Henderson, Gibson feels like a nice pickup in the third round of RSO rookie drafts.

3.05 Bryan Edwards WR (Nick)

Bryan Edwards is a player that somehow every time I am researching who people like as a flyer in the mid-rounds his name somehow always keeps coming up. Edwards broke his foot before the combine so other than basic height/weight metrics we don’t have a lot of comparables to go off of. Watching tape on him however and I see a lot of what N’Keal Harry was at Arizona State. He is a big, physical receiver who can go up and “Moss” a defender in jump ball situations. Like Harry though he has trouble with separation which may not translate well to the pros if teams place their “Brandon Browner” type of physical corner opposite him. Nevertheless, with his injury possibly fluctuating his NFL draft value it will be interesting to see how far down the draft he falls. If he is picked before the end of day two he might be a fringe second-round selection in standard leagues but in Superflex, he’s going to fall to the third. At less than $1M/year, I will gladly take a flyer on Edwards especially if he lands in an idea receiver situation.

3.06 Antonio Gandy-Golden WR (Bob)

Gandy-Golden didn’t test well at the NFL Combine but I’m not deterred, I want him on at least one of my fantasy teams. AGG has a wide catch radius and the size to body smaller corners thanks to his 6’3″/223 frame. Despite playing without a star supporting cast, he still put up great numbers and averaged 6.25 receptions and 101 yards per game last year. In four games against higher level opponents in 2019 (Syracuse, Rutgers, BYU and Virginia), Gandy-Golden actually surpassed those numbers so we know he didn’t feast only against other Independents. He’s a mid-major guy who I’ll bet on making a mark at the next level.

3.07 A.J. Dillon RB (Bernard)

Many will see Derrick Henry comps here. He tested very similarly athletically to Derrick Henry at the NFL combine at about the same size while also having reasonably close college production profiles. Dillon will get drafted much later in the NFL, however. Scheme and team fit is more important for Dillon’s fantasy prospects than most prospects. He needs real commitment as the lead back in a run-based attack for him to have fantasy success (see Henry for most of his first three years). I find the gamble well worth it this deep in the draft to hit on the ever-scarce running back position.

3.08 Jalen Hurts QB

3.09 Thaddeus Moss TE

3.10 KJ Hamler WR

Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

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2018 NFL Mock Draft: Part II, Picks 17-32

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By Bob Cowper

Updated: April 19th 2018

If you have not already read Part IV of my mock draft, please start there so you can start at the bottom and follow through to the beginning. Part IV includes detailed notes about my methodology and process. You can then move on to Part III and then finally to Part I once it is posted. An important note to remind readers is that this mock draft was compiled on March 30-31 so please keep the timing in mind as you read in case there are trades or free agent signings in the interim.

#32 – Eagles – Orlando Brown, T, Oklahoma

If Orlando Brown didn’t attend the combine he would have been drafted higher. Instead, he did participate and promptly became the butt of many jokes on #DraftTwitter. The reason for the hate was just how unathletic Brown looked. He ran a 5.85 40 yard dash, had a 19.5″ vertical jump, a 82″ broad jump and 14 bench reps – all worst at the position. On the field though, Brown has been lauded with accolades throughout his career. He was a 2017 consensus All-American and was a finalist for the Outland Trophy. In 2015 and 2016, he was named to various awards lists as well. The Eagles have added to the defense in the offseason, trading for DE Michael Bennett and CB Daryl Worley, so I think it makes sense to go offense here, specifically the line. Starting tackles, Jason Peters and Lane Johnson are good but are not always available. Peters is 36 and has a long injury history, meanwhile Johnson has already been suspended twice for PEDs in his short career. Nobody should have been surprised that Brown is not an elite athlete, just watch some tape, but the hate has gone too far. He’s 6’8″ and 345lbs and you can’t teach size. The fact that he’s played 40 career games and is not an injury risk is just further reason to take him here and benefit from the discount his awful combine created.

#31 – Patriots – Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State

The Patriots love to go defense with their first pick and have done so every year, except 2011, since 2006. In that range, there were two high profile LBs taken, Jamie Collins and Jerod Mayo, so we know the Patriots aren’t averse to drafting the position high. Vander Esch was uber productive in the Mountain West this season (141 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 INTs, 4 forced fumbles) but really only has one year of experience as a starter because of a redshirt and a season mostly lost to injury. If Vander Esch returned to school in 2018 and put up similar numbers, I would expect him to jump into the first half of the first round. Instead, he’ll sneak in here and unsurprisingly, the Patriots will find value with a late first round pick.

#30 – Vikings – Connor Williams, T, Texas

In most years, Connor Williams probably wouldn’t warrant being the third tackle off the board but this is not the strongest class (similar to last year where only two were taken in the first round). In 2016, Williams was a consensus All-American, improving on a freshman season that earned him freshman All-American honors. In 2017, however, he only played in five games due to injury. At the combine, Williams measured in as one of the smallest tackles so it’s possible that teams may try to move him inside. Regardless of whether he deserves to be a first rounder, I think the Vikings will feel the need to add to their offensive line to help protect their new franchise quarterback, Kirk Cousins. Centers Frank Ragnow or James Daniels are probably the best lineman on the board at this point but the Vikings are already set at the position with Pat Elflein. Chalk this one up to team need rather than BPA.

#29 – Jaguars – Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama

Evans is a versatile linebacker who started his career as a pass rusher and has since transitioned inside. He played very well down the stretch when the Tide needed him to be the primary inside backer due to injuries to Shaun Dion Hamilton and others. Over his last six games, Evans had 8+ tackles in five of them. Adding Evans to a starting linebacking corps of Telvin Smith and Myles Jack is almost unfair to the rest of the AFC South. Evans has a lot of potential and I think he would fit right in with the ethos of the Jaguars defense.

#28 – Steelers – Mike Hughes, CB, UCF

Per Spotrac.com, the Steelers have yet to resign four DBs from 2017’s squad. They did bring in safety Morgan Burnett from the Packers but they still need more depth. Mike Hughes is an interesting prospect. He started his career at UNC but was suspended after an alleged assault at a frat party. After leaving UNC, he became a JUCO All-American and ended up at UCF where he shined in 2017 as a junior with 49 tackles and 4 INTs. Hughes also contributes on special teams where he ranked top five in both kick return and punt return average. In addition to his one interception return touchdown, he also returned two kicks and one punt for scores. The Steelers ranked near the bottom of the league in both kick and punt return average in 2017. So, even if Hughes is unable to unseat Joe Haden or Artie Burns as a starting corner, he could add value as a nickel and a return man. The Steelers tend to use their starting receivers as returners, but it might behoove them to protect both Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster and let somebody else handle the kicks.

#27 – Saints – Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State

I really struggled with the Saints pick here at #27. I considered local edge rusher Arden Key from LSU but decided he wasn’t worth the pick. I also considered Mason Rudolph, the next best quarterback on my board, as the heir apparent for the aging Drew Brees. Gesicki was my other choice but part of me didn’t want to put two tight ends back-to-back. Once my mind flashed to Jimmy Graham back in the day with Brees and the Saints, I was sold. Gesicki is an incredible athlete and labeling him as a tight end might be a misnomer because he’s not a good blocker and will serve primarily as a receiver. Gesicki’s 2017 output at Penn State, 57 receptions for 563 yards and 9 TDs, is better than all three of the Saints’ 2017 tight ends combined. The Saints did re-sign TE Benjamin Watson for a second stint which also made me hesitate with this pick. Watson missed all of 2016 with an achilles injury but rebounded with a 61-522-4 line in 2017 as a 36 year old with Baltimore. Watson is not going to factor into the team’s plans past this season (neither will Coby Fleener whose dead cap number drops next offseason), so it’s not crazy to think that they target another weapon for Brees.

#26 – Falcons – Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State

Dallas Goedert is now my top ranked TE in the class. At various times over the last year, I have had Mike Gesicki and Hayden Hurst in that spot but I’ve become enamored enough with Goedert to push him up. His usage in college reminded me of Travis Kelce with the Chiefs. The team made a concerted effort to get the ball in his hands in creative ways to showcase his plus athleticism. At worst, he’s an average blocker when compared to the other top prospects at the position. That means he should be able to see playing time early in his career. I like the idea of adding him to the Falcons’ 8th ranked passing offense. I doubt the team is ready to give up on 2016 draft choice Austin Hooper, but combining Goedert with Hooper could shore up the only weakness of this offense.

#25 – Titans – Sam Hubbard, EDGE, Ohio State

Hubbard is my highest rated edge rusher left on the board. His stat line of 42-13.5-7 is not amazing but that’s mostly a factor of playing on Ohio State’s dominant defensive line where he shared snaps with a number of future pros. Hubbard played as a 4-3 end so it remains to be seen how he would fit with the Titans and new coach Mike Vrabel. Like Matt Patricia, I expect Vrabel to adopt more of a multiple scheme rather than locking into a 3-4 or a 4-3, even though DC Dean Pees prefers a 3-4. The Titans have spent heavily on former Patriot players Dion Lewis and Malcolm Butler, perhaps no surprise given Vrabel’s history in New England. The relationship between Bill Belichick and Ohio State’s Urban Meyer and Greg Schiano is well known. Since Vrabel has already shown a desire to create Patriots South with his free agent signings, I’ll bet that he continues that in the draft and targets a player who will be vouched for by two trusted coaches.

#24 – Panthers – Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa

The Panthers traded starter Daryl Worley to the Eagles for WR Torrey Smith so they currently have a need at the position. Jackson led the nation in 2017 with 8 INTs, including five combined against top Big Ten foes Ohio State and Wisconsin. He has tremendous ball skills (he also had 18 pass break ups). Jackson is a converted receiver, hence the ball skills. Jackson played better in run support in 2017 as a full-time starter, totaling 48 tackles. The Panthers passing defense finished in the bottom half in yards per attempt, yards per game, interceptions and average rating so adding somebody like Jackson is a no-brainer.

#23 – Rams – Lorenzo Carter, EDGE, Georgia

(Editor’s note: The Rams traded this pick to the Patriots as part of the Brandin Cooks deal. Cowper is upset because it likely means that whatever chance his beloved Lorenzo Carter had as a first rounder are dashed. Cowper doubts whether the Pats will hold the pick but if they do, they may be hoping to grab a falling LT) This pick is my biggest reach of the first round but I love Lorenzo Carter. I introduced my readers to Carter in Week 4 when I said that he could ultimately end up with a first round grade. He put up good numbers this year: 62 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries. He put up even better combine numbers, running a 4.50 and broad jumping 130″ at 6’6″ and 250lbs. That was the fastest time and longest jump for anybody 6’5″ and 240lbs or bigger. I was pleasantly surprised to see Carter used in coverage at times down the stretch in 2017 so I don’t think he is limited just to situational pass rushing. In time, I think he can be an every down linebacker who has exceptional length and speed.

#22 – Bills – James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State

The Bills have spent heavily on the WR position recently. They traded for Kelvin Benjamin and used a second round pick on Zay Jones in 2017. Going back a bit further, they used a first rounder on Sammy Watkins in 2014 and a second rounder on Robert Woods in 2013 – neither of which is still with the team. The recent disturbing video of Zay Jones has me thinking that the Bills will need to invest another high pick on a wide receiver. Having two first rounders makes it a bit easier to do so. If they do, I think they should grab Washington instead of Courtland Sutton. Sutton is a big bodied receiver who would be too similar to Benjamin. Washington is basically a running back playing out wide. He has good speed, excellent acceleration and is a former high school track star. He lacks the size and strength to fight for contested balls but his quickness means he rarely has to if the quarterback can hit him in stride. Once he has the ball in his hands, he has good vision in the open field and often breaks big plays (he averages over 20 yards per reception for his career).

#21 – Bengals – Kolton Miller, T, UCLA

The Bengals offensive line unit is largely a group of no-name guys. Unless you’re a masochistic Bengals fan, you probably wouldn’t recognize any of the names on their depth chart, maybe aside from Cordy Glenn who was just acquired in a trade. The Bengals allowed 40 sacks in 2017, ranking them in the bottom half; their running backs averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, ranking them third worst. Adding Miller instantly upgrades the unit. The NFL.com scouting report on Miller describes him as an “average athlete.” He rejected that notion at the combine where he finished third or better among tackles in the 40 yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump, 3-cone and shuttle. Oh, and did I mention that he came in at 6’9″ and is the tallest prospect in the class?

#20 – Lions – Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College

New Lions head coach Matt Patricia will not run a set 3-4 or 4-3 scheme, instead he will adjust based on the matchup as he did in New England. Because of this, he will need edge rushers who can get to the quarterback regardless of their alignment. Landry fits the bill. He played as a 4-3 end at BC but he has the speed and quickness to rush from a stand-up position in a 3-4 (at the combine he had the fastest shuttle and second fastest 3-cone among DE/EDGE). In true Patriot fashion, the Lions would be getting a discount on Landry because he would have been taken higher if he came out last year after a 16.5 sack junior season. Instead, he missed time in 2017 with an ankle injury and when he was on the field he was less effective.

#19 – Cowboys – Will Hernandez, G, UTEP

The Cowboys offensive line has been a strength of the team after they spent first round picks on linemen in 2011, 2013 and 2014. The Cowboys also took a chance on La’el Collins who was a first round talent but went undrafted due to off the field concerns. Collins and 2014 first rounder Zack Martin are a formidable duo of guards but I still want the Cowboys, my favorite team, to add to the offensive line. Hernandez is the best lineman on the board at this pick so I would take him even though the team has two young starting guards. Since that 2014 pick of Martin, the Cowboys have only used two draft picks on offensive lineman (a 3rd and a 7th in 2015) so it’s time to reinvest in the position. Similar to how the Travis Frederick pick in 2013 disappointed Cowboys fans, myself included, this pick is not sexy but it would go a long way to keeping Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliott healthy.

#18 – Seahawks – Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA

This is the third time I picked Davenport in this mock draft. I second guessed the first two and replaced him with a different player. When I got down here to the Seahawks I felt it was a perfect pick even with Harold Landry still on the board. The Seahawks defense is in flux and two big name defensive linemen, Michael Bennett and Sheldon Richardson, won’t be there in 2018. That opens the door for a prospect like Davenport to come in and be part of the new look Legion of Boom. Davenport is a raw prospect but is very athletic for his size. When compared to other DE/EDGE prospects at the combine, he excelled at the 40 yard dash and the broad jump while putting up respectable numbers in the vertical and bench press. Davenport had a 55-17.5-8.5 line this season as a stand-up rusher. What convinced me that the Seahawks would pounce on somebody like Davenport was researching their “Leo” position. As I learned, Pete Carroll plays a modified 4-3 that features one defensive end “standing up or with his hand in the ground, and [his] sole focus is to be the primary pass rusher and wreak havoc in the backfield.” That sure sounds like Davenport to me when you watch his highlights. I don’t think he will be an every down player in the NFL early in his career but he will flash enough to get noticed.

#17 – Chargers – Isaiah Wynn, G/T, Georgia

Wynn is a versatile offensive lineman whose future in the NFL is likely at guard but he could see action at tackle or center as well. He bounced between LT and LG at Georgia but is too small to start as a LT in the NFL on a regular basis. I believe he would be a good target for the Chargers because of his versatility. Both of the Chargers’ projected starting tackles, Russell Okung and Joe Barksdale, are 30 years old. Okung has been placed on the IR twice in his career while Barksdale missed multiple games last year with a foot injury. New C/G Mike Pouncey has a history of hip injuries and played a full season last year for the first time since 2012. When you Google “Mike Pouncey injury,” one of the results trumpets the fact that the hip injury is not career-threatening. Well, that’s encouraging. Last year’s second round pick, G Forrest Lamp, missed his entire rookie season after an ACL tear. What I’m driving at is that the Chargers will very likely need to juggle their offensive line this year and having somebody like Wynn who could fill a number of roles would be tremendous. Both tackles also have smaller dead cap numbers for 2019, so maybe the Chargers can groom him, despite his smaller size, to be the team’s starting RT for 2019 and beyond.

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
Film: 2018 NFL Draft Database by @CalhounLambeau, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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Rookie Mock Draft v2.0

By Bob Cowper

Updated: July 23rd 2017

It’s been awhile since the halcyon days before the NFL Draft when opinions and rookie mock drafts were full of optimistic caveats like “he would be a perfect fit with the [INSERT YOUR TEAM NAME].” Now that we know everybody’s landing place, it should be much easier to mock draft the rookies, right? At the top, I would say yes but after 1.07 it’s mostly a crap shoot. As I felt before, although they have shifted slightly, there are definite tier breaks and groupings of like players. Below I have ran through a three round rookie mock draft for a typical 10-team RSO league. If your league plays Superflex or 2 QB, you should adjust by moving the QBs up about 10-15 picks each in my opinion. Keep in mind this is a mock draft and not my straight rankings (which you can view and read about here; my God do I wish I had a do-over on some of those already!) so it’s a combination of my own personal preferences plus those of the dynasty “community” to create what I hope is a good approximation of what your league will look like. Along the way, I will offer some thoughts about why I grouped the players the way I did and will offer any details about how my personal rankings differ from the mock draft. Enjoy!

1.01 – Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars

1.02 – Corey Davis, WR, Titans

Many dynasty rankings are starting to converge on the opinion of Davis over Fournette. I have not changed my opinion yet when it comes to RSO leagues. I think both will be fantastic NFL players but you need to keep RSO’s format in mind. Fournette is likely to be fed the rock over and over early in his career until his body breaks down because the Jags lack offensive weapons; meanwhile the state of the Titans offense is less dire and Davis has the luxury of being eased into a starring role alongside QB Marcus Mariota and the RB duo of Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry. If I had to guess who would be a better pro in Year 5, I would put my money on Davis. As an RSO owner, that’s not what you’re worrying about though because your rookie contract is either 3 or 4 years long. I think Fournette will realize more immediate value and that is why I still have him as my first overall rookie pick.

1.03 – Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers

1.04 – Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals

1.05 – Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings

McCaffrey has supplanted Mike Williams in this second tier in my opinion, especially in PPR. The order of the three RBs is a toss-up but I feel McCaffrey is the safest pick of the three so I put him first. I have heard of some dynasty players still considering Cook in the top three picks based on his spectacular tape but I am scared off by his questionable combine; Mixon obviously has character concerns. Admittedly, I decided against Mixon at 1.07 in one of my RSO leagues and instead traded the pick – I wasn’t desperate for a RB and had a second thought about taking on a guaranteed contract for a guy who already comes into the league with a domestic violence issue. In hindsight it might have been the wrong decision but I felt it was what was best for my team. I wouldn’t fault anybody for grabbing one of these RBs at 1.03, ultimately it comes down to personal preference.

1.06 – Mike Williams, WR, Chargers

1.07 – OJ Howard, TE, Bucs

Williams’ and Howard’s value changed for me after the NFL Draft because of their landing spots. Williams has prototypical size to be an NFL WR1 but he joins the Chargers and will have to contend with the chemistry between Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen and fight for targets with the ascendant Tyrell Williams. If Allen gets injured tomorrow, which we know is possible, the narrative can change quickly which is why I have Williams above Howard. Before the NFL Draft, I predicted that the Bucs would take the athletic David Njoku to pair with Mike Evans and create red zone nightmares for their opponents. I had the name of the TE wrong but the logic is still the same: joining the Bucs is far better for Howard’s fantasy potential than if the Browns took him at #12 as was rumored.

1.08 – John Ross, WR, Bengals

1.09 – David Njoku, TE, Browns

1.10 – Zay Jones, WR, Bills

2.01 – JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers

2.02 – Evan Engram, TE, Giants

This tier of pass catchers just edges out the next batch of running backs for me in terms of this RSO mock draft. The NFL is a passing league and a majority of RSO leagues feature PPR scoring so it stands to reason that you should lean towards these guys over the likes of Kareem Hunt, D’Onta Foreman and Samaje Perine who are featured below. Ross paces this group, literally and figuratively, because of his speed and big play ability – he can change a game more so than Jones or Smith-Schuster. Jones thrived in a short passing system in college and should see plenty of short routes with Tyrod Taylor under center in 2017; the fact that the Bills did not extend Sammy Watkins also helps increase Jones’ value. I’m higher on Jones than most and think he will prove to have a very high ceiling from the start. Smith-Schuster peaked in 2015 which is slightly concerning and may start start at WR4 on the depth chart behind some combination of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Sammie Coates and Eli Rogers (not to mention target stealing RB Le’Veon Bell). Njoku gets the nod over Engram for me because of his bigger size and the likelihood of seeing targets from Day One, albeit from a poorer QB. Engram is basically a WR and was the smallest of the coveted TEs in this class; I fear that he may loose snaps to Will Tye if he is not able to hold his own as a blocker.

2.03 – Kareem Hunt, RB, Chiefs

2.04 – D’Onta Foreman, RB, Texans

2.05 – Samaje Perine, RB, Redskins

As I mentioned above, none of these guys are prolific pass catchers (Hunt’s 2016 aside, when he had 9 more receptions than the previous three years combined) so they fall a notch in my mock draft. Hunt has the best chance of being that dual-threat RB which is why he tops this tier for me. Plus he was a four year starter at Toledo without any major injury concerns so that is also a plus. The Chiefs offense was in the top half in most offensive categories and with literally zero draft capital invested in Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West, the Chiefs won’t hesitate to make the switch if Ware falters in the least. Meanwhile, Foreman will have to start behind Lamar Miller who still has three years on his deal (but Houston has a potential out after 2017) so his path to starter’s touches may be longer. Perine is an interesting player because he was largely overshadowed by his Sooner backfield partner, Joe Mixon, and he now joins a crowded but talent poor Redskins’ backfield. At various points of the offseason and regular season, it looked like the Redskins feature back would be Matt Jones (who can’t stop fumbling the ball), then 7th round pick Keith Marshall (who got hurt) and then finally Rob Kelley (whose nickname is Fat Rob). If Perine proves to be the steady and reliable back he was in college he will win the job for the dysfunctional Redskins by mid-season.

2.06 – Curtis Samuel, RB/WR, Panthers

2.07 – Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints

I grouped these two “gadget” players together because I have concerns about the number of touches they will get early in their career. Samuel proved to be a productive rusher and receiver in college but I’m not convinced he’s good enough at either to stick in the NFL. The sample size on Kamara as a true running back is too small to put any stock into the possibility of him beating out Adrian Peterson or Mark Ingram (if he doesn’t get traded). Kamara only had 210 career carries for the Volunteers which is fewer than most of the aforementioned RBs averaged per season. He is a capable receiver (74 career catches and a 9.2 average) so he will see action on passing downs but his upside is limited by the 6-8 touches I expect each game.

2.08 – Chris Godwin, WR, Bucs

2.09 – Taywan Taylor, WR, Titans

Godwin and Taylor find themselves here at the back of the second round which is a great value in my personal opinion. I actually have Godwin ranked much higher, for the same reasons as OJ Howard, and am ecstatic when I find him later in drafts. Taylor is not well known which can work to your advantage. He put up crazy production the last two years on a mediocre Western Kentucky team (154-3,200-34) and tested reasonably well at the combine (4.50 40 yard dash, best 3-cone drill, sixth best broad jump). As the second WR taken by the Titans he will fly under the radar but grab him now so you hold him when I predict he breaks out in Year Two.

2.10 – Pat Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

3.01 – Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans

I differ from most RSO owners with my opinions on QBs. I feel you should target the best rookies in the middle of the second round so you can take your pick rather than being at the end of the inevitable run on them. My top pick in this class is Mahomes – he has a lot of mechanics work to do but should be the Chiefs starter by 2018. I am not a fan of Watson but he will have the opportunity to start sooner than most other rookies so he’s worth the gamble. Just like in the NFL, if you can find a startable QB and lock him up for years on a cheap deal it is well worth the risk.

3.02 – Marlon Mack, RB, Colts

3.03 – Carlos Henderson, WR, Broncos

3.04 – Jeremy McNichols, RB, Bucs

3.05 – Wayne Gallman, RB, Giants

The value in this next tier relies heavily on the health and production of the veterans ahead of the rookies on the depth chart. Because their talent is a step below the higher ranked rookies, they may not be able to overcome the veterans in training camp and instead will need a “lucky break” to get their chance. Mack will begin behind the ageless Frank Gore but he’s going to break down, and for good, sooner or later. Henderson joins a crowded group of WRs on the Broncos and will need an injury to Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders to crack the starting lineup; he’ll also need to contend with the young projects of Bennie Fowler and Cody Latimer. McNichols might have the best shot to ingratiate himself early as Doug Martin is suspended to start the season but reports are that Martin is doing great in OTAs so that puts a dent in McNichols’ prospects after the suspension. I am a Wayne Gallman apologist and think he has a shot to beat out Paul Perkins. Perkins did enough in his 112 carries to at least start the season as the RB1 though. Most people would have Gallman lower but my love for him is too hard to ignore!

3.06 – Jamaal Williams, RB, Packers

3.07 – Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams

3.08 – Jake Butt, TE, Broncos

This tier features three players whose pure talent may not warrant the pick but their situation does – in contrast to the tier above. The Packers no longer have Eddie Lacy or James Starks so that only leaves converted receiver Ty Montgomery as the incumbent. Both Williams and Aaron Jones will have ample opportunity to take over the lead role. The same goes for Kupp who is looking at also-rans Robert Woods and Tavon Austin ahead of him on the depth chart; if Kupp can get on the field early and create a connection with QB Jared Goff he could prove to be a huge value. TE Jake Butt’s value took a huge hit after he tore his ACL at the end of the season. Chances are he will be okay to play early in the season and the Broncos will need him as Virgil Green did not show us much last year.

3.09 – Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bears

3.10 – Deshone Kizer, QB Browns

The same logic applies here as it does for Mahomes and Watson – grab potential starting QBs in your rookie draft to lock them into cheap long term contracts. Both Trubisky and Kizer join bad teams that could throw them into the fire early. I doubt they have much value in Year One, like Goff last year, but they are worth the stash given the small cap hit if you’re forced to cut them.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper