The Watch List: 2019 National Championship Game Preview

Updated: January 5th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout bowl season as The Watch List will preview every game and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. 

National Championship Game, Alabama (14-0) vs Clemson (14-0), Mon 1/7 at 8:00pm on ESPN:

Well, here we go again. Alabama and Clemson are building a nice intra-conference rivalry with all of these CFP matchups (the Tide lead the recent series, 2-1). I’ve heard some fans express disappointment that we’re getting such a familiar matchup for the championship but I’m a fan. For me, as an amateur draft analyst, this game is fantastic because of the sheer volume of NFL talent that will be on display. I’ve recently written about a number of these prospects so rather than rehash those players, I decided to spotlight two guys who I have yet to discuss this season: Alabama RB Josh Jacobs and Clemson WR Hunter Renfrow. If you’d like to revisit my previous players-to-watch from earlier this postseason, please check out my Conference Championship Preview (Irv Smith) and Part VI of my Bowl Previews (Clelin Ferrel, Quinnen Williams).  I’ve also provided my prediction and best bets below.  Good luck and enjoy!

Draft Eligible Players to Watch:

Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama

Josh Jacobs likely saw his NFL Draft stock rise quicker than anybody else who played last week. In that game against Oklahoma, Jacobs totaled 19 touches for 158 yards and a score. Throughout his career, Jacobs has been sharing the workload with a number of talented backs (currently, the Harris “twins” of Damien and Najee) but maybe coach Nick Saban finally realized that Jacobs was the best of the bunch. It’s impossible to evaluate Jacobs based on his stats because he shared so many touches. His career numbers are: 240 attempts, 1,444 yards, 16 rushing TDs, 47 receptions, 555 yards and 5 receiving TDs. Don’t be the fantasy owner who ignores him because his career stats don’t look great on paper. I was that guy when it came to Alvin Kamara in 2017 and I hope not to repeat that mistake. I’m certainly not predicting that Jacobs will have Kamara’s rise to stardom, it’s far too soon for a prediction like that, but I’m saying that there’s more than the boxscore for fantasy owners to consider.

I first wrote about Jacobs in November 2017 but since then I haven’t watched him too closely, so it was time for a refresher.  I decided to go back and watch Jacobs against Mississippi State from earlier this season. His 20 carries in that game were a career high so I figured it would give me a feel for his ceiling.  On the first play of the State film, Jacobs took the snap from the wildcat and showcased his penchant for lowering his head and surging into defenders.  He wallops the first defender and then shoulders another as he’s being dragged down around the waist.  The run went for a first down but what stood out more was how un-fun it would be to lineup opposite Jacobs.

In addition to his size and power, Jacobs showed an ability to make sharp, quick cuts to get around defenders.  This one near the end zone was particularly eye-catching.  Jacobs sets up two defenders to the outside, plants his right foot and explodes upfield while avoiding much contact.  Without the benefit of the full broadcast, it’s hard to tell if Jacobs scores on the play but either way that cut was a thing of beauty.

I was most surprised by Jacobs’ ability to pass protect.  Perhaps that should not have come as a surprise since Nick Saban trusts him as the passing down back.  Other backs have the desire to block, but I struggled thinking of a back who showed the intelligence in picking up their assignments as Jacobs did.  There were three separate instances against Mississippi State where I noted that Jacobs quickly diagnosed the rush and found his man, even from across the formation.  I chose to highlight this specific play because you can also see Jacobs square up, set his base and prepare for the block.

Due to the small sample size we have for Jacobs, I can understand why fantasy owners may be leery about taking the plunge next Spring.  I however, need no further convincing that Jacobs deserves to move up my positional rankings.  He has a wonderful combination of size, power, agility, intelligence and pass catching ability that will endear him to scouts.  Come May, we will be talking about Jacobs as a potential Day Two NFL prospect and as a second round target in rookie drafts.

 

 

Hunter Renfrow, WR, Clemson

ESPN put it best in their recent piece, saying that “Hunter Renfrow is a timeless legend at Clemson.” Renfrow doesn’t project as a big-name prospect like some of the other dudes in this contest, so why highlight him? For starters, that “legendary” status paired with Dabo Swinney’s playful playcalling means that Renfrow will inevitably be featured on a trick play. He played as a triple-option quarterback in high school, was the team’s emergency quarterback while Trevor Lawrence was banged up and kicked a 42-yard punt against Wake Forest.  Once the Wake game was out of hand, Renfrow got some snaps at QB.  Check out the downfield block he makes on this run that helps spring the back for a score.  “Want-to” plays like this is what makes fans fall in love with Renfrow.

While Renfrow’s regular season production throughout his career has been mediocre (about 3 catches for 40 yards, on average), he has shown an ability to show up for big games. Renfrow has played in each of the three CFP matchups versus ‘Bama and has a total of 22 receptions, 211 and 2 TDs (including the last second game winner in 2017). Those stats, against the perennially strong Alabama defense in the seasons’ biggest games, are impressive.

Renfrow will get a crack in the NFL as a slot receiver but he won’t be highly sought in a deep receiver class. He has sticky hands, runs his routes well and is a clutch performer.  While I was looking for highlights of Renfrow, I came across this catch which immediately reminded me of the game-winning catch Cole Beasley made against the Giants in Week 17.  Renfrow breaks off his route to adjust for the scrambling quarterback, heads towards open space to make himself a target, hands-catches the ball in midair and gets a foot in for the score.

Beasley is smaller than Renfrow, so I think a better comparison would be fellow Clemson alumni, Adam Humphries from the Buccaneers. Humphries went undrafted, as did Beasley, which is too a possibility for Renfrow but I think it’s more likely he’ll be a sixth or seventh round guy because of his name recognition.

I’m really looking forward to seeing how Renfrow is deployed in this one.  Running a “Clemson Special” with Renfrow may be too obvious so instead I’m thinking he might be involved in a trick special teams play (in addition to his regular receiver work, of course).

My Prediction:

There’s not much to separate these two teams. They have so much in common: both have underclassmen on offense who are surefire NFL pros, both have stellar defenses led by fierce front sevens, both have championship experience, both have great coaching staffs, and on and on. When I came into this preview, I knew it was going to be difficult to avoid the urge to name-drop all of the potential difference makers. The two guys mentioned above will surely figure into the action but the main draw will undoubtedly be the quarterbacks. Clemson’s true freshman Trevor Lawrence is a herculean specimen who looked, and played, the part from day one. Alabama’s sophomore Tua Tagovailoa is like a jazz musician with his ability to improvise and produce moments of magic extemporaneously. If pressed, I would predict that Lawrence has the better game overall but Tua produces the single most important moment of the game and wins a defensive battle for the Tide.  Alabama 29, Clemson 25

My Bets:

  • Clemson, +5.5
  • Under 58.5

Lines and betting stats courtesy of OddsShark.com, as of 1/4.

 

Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor.  My experimental grading system uses a Madden-like approach by weighting position relevant traits on a 100-point scale; bonus or negative points are awarded based on production, size, injury history and character.  Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games.  When time permits, I may add a third game. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com, mcubed.net
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com, the media home for FWAA members
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: oddsshark.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

The Watch List: 2018 Bowl Game Previews, Part VI

Updated: December 28th 2018

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout bowl season as The Watch List will preview every game and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. 

Cotton Bowl (Semi-Final), Clemson (13-0) vs Notre Dame (12-0), Sat 12/29 at 4:00pm on ESPN:

  • Draft Eligible Players to Watch: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson
    • Ferrell has ensconced himself as the top prospect on Clemson’s talented defense. He’s a slam dunk first round pick because of his combination of size (6050/260) and speed. His career stats are excellent as well: 158 tackles, 48.0 tackles for loss and 26.0 sacks. Ferrell plays with a relentless but not reckless pace. He appears to have very good instincts and can quickly diagnose what’s going on in the offensive backfield. Ferrell plays as a down lineman so I’d expect 4-3 teams to target him but he’s probably good enough to adapt to any system.
  • My Pick: Clemson, -12.5
    • The line for this one keeps creeping larger and larger but it doesn’t matter to me. Clemson would be my pick if the line was twice as big. Notre Dame is a solid team who finally found their QB in Ian Book, however Clemson has them bested at each position. Much of the talk in this one will be about Clemson’s defense but RSO owners should also pay attention to the star underclassmen that the Tigers have on offense (QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Travis Etienne, WR Tee Higgins).

Orange Bowl (Semi-Final), Alabama (13-0) vs Oklahoma (12-1), Sat 12/29 at 8:00pm on ESPN:

  • Draft Eligible Player to Watch: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
    • There are so many draft eligible players in this one that it’s an impossible task to pick one. I settled on Williams because his name has been en vogue lately. Williams is a redshirt sophomore who played sparingly in 2017. In 2018 he totaled 66 tackles, 18.0 tackles for loss and 8.0 sacks. The reason that Williams’ name has become so hot is because he’s on a five game tear. In those five games he has at least one sack in each contest (6.5 total), 33 total tackles and 9.5 tackles for loss. His best game of the bunch was a dominating performance against #4 LSU (10-3.5-2.5) so I decided to watch the film. Williams measures in at 6040/289 but his quickness belies his size. He has fast hands and is typically on the blocker faster than they can react. He was often double- and triple-teamed but still made an impact. His push through the interior disrupts the pocket and leads to sacks or tackles for loss for his teammates. My initial impression before watching the LSU film was that #DraftTwitter was overreacting to a small sample size of recent games but that thought was wrong. Williams is the real deal and will be a Top 10 pick if he comes out.
  • My Pick: Alabama, -14
    • I won’t be playing this game ATS or on the moneyline. It’s just too fraught to pick in my opinion. Nick Saban has won his last three semi-final games by a combined score of 86-13, while the three subsequent championship games were all single digit margins. That tells me that if you give the Tide time to prepare, they will destroy you. Then what’s my hang up? The Sooners offense, led by QB Kyler Murray, is ranked 1st overall in the FBS. They can put up points but have not played a defense like Alabama’s yet. If I had to guess, I would say that Alabama’s defense outplays Oklahoma’s offense but I have enough doubt to sit this one out. I will be betting the over though. The teams have gone over a combined 19 times in 26 games.

Fiesta Bowl, LSU (9-3) vs UCF (12-0), Tue 1/1 at 1:00pm on ESPN:

  • Draft Eligible Player to Watch: Devin White, LB, LSU
    • White has led the Tigers in tackles the last two seasons, totaling 248 between. He’s constantly around the ball and will be an IDP darling because he also collects sacks and turnovers. White is ranked as the #2 interior linebacker, and #24 overall, in the class by TheDraftNetwork.com and is even higher on some other industry lists. When I was searching for tape online, I came across a highlight clip titled “Fastest Linebacker in the Country.” After watching the clip, I have to admit that I was impressed with his straight line speed. Whether he’s using it to rush the quarterback right up the gut or going sideline-to-sideline pursuing a running back, White has an extra gear that most in his position don’t. It’ll be so much fun watching him matchup with a running quarterback like UCF’s Darriel Mack.
  • My Pick: UCF, +7.5
    • If you like fun, don’t bet on LSU. I took them in numerous games this season and was let down each time. They ended up 6-6 ATS and I might have had them in each of those six losses, oh well. UCF on the other hand is 9-3 ATS, including 5-1 in the last six. You can’t disregard the loss of QB McKenzie Milton but backup Darriel Mack showed he’s capable. Mack single-handedly engineered a comeback in the AAC Championship game by rushing for four 2nd half touchdowns. Take the points and enjoy yourself rooting for a UCF team that won’t be out of it even if they’re down.

Rose Bowl, Washington (10-3) vs Ohio State (12-1), Tue 1/1 at 5:00pm on ESPN:

  • Draft Eligible Player to Watch: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
    • [Insert quippy boilerplate “2019 Quarterback Class” comment here]. After his first year as the starter, Haskins has catapulted near the top of 2019 quarterback rankings. He completes a conference-leading 70.2% of his passes and finished with a crazy 47:8 TD:INT ratio. There’s a chance that Haskins surpasses 5,000 passing yards – he needs 420, a mark he’s beat three times this year. There’s no question that Haskins has an accurate arm, anticipates his receivers well and throws with touch. The recent track record of run-first Buckeye QBs may hurt Haskins in the eyes of casual fans but don’t let it jade you, he’s a natural thrower who is a quarterback through and through. In the 2019 class he’s likely a first rounder due to the lack of solid quarterback prospects.
  • My Pick: Ohio State, -7
    • Neither team has been great for bettors recently so I’m not picking this one based on trends or stats. It’s just a gut feeling. Ohio State undoubtedly thinks they should be in the playoff. They will be playing angry and will run up the score to show the committee they made a mistake. The players are also playing their last game for Urban Meyer so there will be an added impetus to play well. I’m going Ohio State and might even play an alternate line and lay even more points.

Sugar Bowl, Texas (9-4) vs Georgia (11-2), Tue 1/1 at 8:45pm on ESPN:

  • Draft Eligible Player to Watch: Riley Ridley, WR, Georgia
    • Riley is the younger brother of Falcons rookie WR Calvin Ridley. And, if you believe the hype on Twitter, Ridley the younger could be just as good. I’ve seen a number of Georgia games this season but did not have a feel for Ridley so I decided to go back and watch one of his films. The only one I could find from 2018 was against LSU when he had a 3-75-1 stat line. Unfortunately the lack of sample size is an issue for Ridley in general, not just in the LSU game I watched. He has just 64 career receptions, 38 of which came in 2018. During the LSU game, I saw a receiver with a good get-off and quick feet out of his breaks. He relies on his speed and quickness to get separation rather than physicality or strength. To get a better feel for his hands, I watched an extended highlight package from the season. He tracks the ball well and shows sticky hands even if he’s forced into an awkward hand placement. When he runs after the catch he likes to utilize a backwards cut that helps him find space and gain extra yardage. Unsurprisingly, I saw him whiff on a number of blocks. I have not seen enough of Ridley to properly rank him but I definitely see that he has the raw tools to be an NFL receiver.
  • My Pick: Georgia, -13
    • No offense to Texas but they don’t feel like they belong in a New Years Six bowl game. Luckily they have two NFL receivers in Collin Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey so they’ll be worth watching. Georgia won their last two ATS while Texas has lost their last two, so the trends point toward the Bulldogs.

 

Lines and betting stats courtesy of OddsShark.com, as of 12/26.

Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor.  My experimental grading system uses a Madden-like approach by weighting position relevant traits on a 100-point scale; bonus or negative points are awarded based on production, size, injury history and character.  Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games.  When time permits, I may add a third game. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com, mcubed.net
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com, the media home for FWAA members
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: oddsshark.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper