The Watch List: 2019 Big Ten Season Preview

Updated: August 30th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Spring and Summer as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Contender: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin.  Three non-QBs have won the Heisman since 2000: Derrick Henry, Mark Ingram and Reggie Bush.  All three running backs rushed for 1,600+ yards and had at least 16 rushing touchdowns.  Taylor should match those numbers by mid-November.  Taylor will earn Heisman votes again in 2019 — he finished 6th in Heisman voting in 2017 and 9th in 2018 — and if Wisconsin contends for the Big Ten he’s likely to get an invite to New York.

Underclassman to Watch: Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue.  Moore is the most exciting playmaker in the Big Ten.  Full stop.  Moore totaled 180 touches as a receiver, rusher and returner and amassed 2,215 all-purpose yards.  His 14 touchdowns from scrimmage were second best in the conference to Taylor (as were his 1,471 yards from scrimmage).  Moore would be difficult to tackle if you were both locked inside a phone booth.  He’s lightning quick and fast in the open field; he is also more physical than you’d assume by looking at him (5090/180).  Moore is easily on the short list for 2021 and could give Justyn Ross some competition for the fantasy WR1 spot in that class.

Newcomer of the Year: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State.  Just a year ago, Fields was a 5-star recruit joining an uber-talented Georgia Bulldogs team.  Fields saw the field sparingly as a true freshman and when it was clear that he could not wrest the starting job away from Jake Fromm, he decided to transfer.  There was some question as to his eligibility waiver, but it was approved by the NCAA and he’s clear to play immediately.  Fields chose Ohio State and was just recently announced as the starter for Week 1.  Last year at Georgia he was responsible for eight touchdowns — four passing and four rushing.  He was efficient too, averaging 6.2 yards per carry and completing nearly 70% of his passes.  Ryan Day takes over as the Ohio State head coach this year so we should expect some changes on offense but the Buckeyes will still hang points.  Look out for 4,000 combined yards and 40 total TDs. (Honorable mention: Hunter Johnson, QB, Northwestern.  Johnson is also a former 5-star recruit.  He moved on from Clemson after the signing of Trevor Lawrence.  After four years of stability with Clayton Thorson under center, the Wildcats will lean on Johnson’s pedigree to repeat as division champs.)

Coaching Carousel: The newest head coach in the league is Maryland’s Mike Locksley.  Locksley isn’t even 50 yet but is well-traveled.  Interestingly, this is his third stint at Maryland.  In his decade-plus of previous experience at Maryland, Locksley held a number of titles: running back coach, quarterback coach, offensive coordinator, interim head coach.  As a head coach, Locksley has just three wins and thirty-one losses.  He spent the last three years as an assistant under Nick Saban at Alabama so I’m sure Terps fans expect Locksley to be ready for the spotlight now.  The biggest coaching change in the Big Ten though is in Columbus where Ryan Day officially takes over for Urban Meyer.  The hand-off seemed likely after Day served as interim coach during Meyer’s three game suspension last September, but it was still big news.  With Meyer’s on-again-off-again history, would anybody have been surprised if he had decided to return?  I’m not ruling out another coaching gig for Meyer elsewhere in 2020, but this is Day’s team now.

Players to Watch

JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio State

This is the eighth time that JK Dobbins has landed on The Watch List.  I first mentioned him way back in October 2017 when he was a true freshman who grabbed the job from a banged up Mike Weber.  My most recent article including Dobbins was the first iteration of my 2020 fantasy mock draft.  In that mock draft, I slotted Dobbins as the 1.03 and the second RB off the board (behind Georgia’s D’Andre Swift).  It appears that I’m higher on Dobbins than other #DraftTwitter rankers so I am looking forward to seeing how this season unfolds for him and the Buckeyes.  At the next level, Dobbins will be a do-it-all back who does it all well.

Before we look at some of his best traits, let’s take a quick look at his stats.  Dobbins rushed for 1,403 yards in 2017 and 1,053 in 2018.  Frustratingly for fans like myself, his yards per carry decreased from 7.2 to 4.6 over those two seasons.  He’s an active receiver with a career line of 48-398-3.  My biggest concern about Dobbins, if you caught me in a moment of candor, is his lack of big plays.  I recently studied the big play output of my top five running backs — D’Andre Swift, Dobbins, Travis Etienne, Jonathan Taylor and Trey Sermon — and Dobbins came in dead last in each of the three categories.  I haven’t done any research as to whether big play output is predictive of NFL success so I’m not letting it worry me yet but it’s something to keep filed away.

When I study Dobbins, I see a player that uses his compact frame and low center of gravity to his advantage.  He’s listed at 5100/214 but may be a tick shorter; he’s thicc.  This sturdy base helps him hold his ground in pass protection (good technique and play recognition don’t hurt either).  It’s rare to share a blocking highlight for a running back in a preseason preview but I feel that strongly that his pass protection ability will be one of the reasons he gets drafted in the Top 100.  On this play you can see that the coaching staff trusts him as a blocker because he’s isolated on the right side.  His first thought is to help his right tackle but then he sees a corner coming on a blitz so he shuffles his feet and squares up the rusher.  He makes first contact and spins the defender away from the quarterback and finishes his block off-camera.  It wasn’t a de-cleater of a block but it was executed well and shows each facet of his blocking ability.

Unsurprisingly, Dobbins runs with some pop and power.  My notes are strewn with comments like “breaks arm tackle” or “pushes pile.”  Rather than showing a play where Dobbins plowed up the middle for a short yardage victory, I decided to highlight this play instead.  You’ll see Dobbins determination pay off as he gets stuffed, keeps his feet moving and finds a way out.  He manages to keep his feet and dives for the end zone.  He’s short of the score but it’s illustrative of what his runs often look like.

Lest you think Dobbins is simply a power rusher (and productive receiver and reliable pass protector), I’m here to tell you that he has some wheels as well.  I think Dobbins has 4.45 speed, if not better.  In high school he reportedly ran a 4.44; at an OSU combine event he ran a 4.32.  That time is surely favorable, but for comparison Denzel Ward and Parris Campbell ran just .09 and .05 seconds slower at the NFL Combine than they did at OSU.  So it’s definitely possible that Dobbins could run a 4.40.  In the last five years, just two running backs have ran 4.40 or better at more than 210 lbs: Keith Marshall and Saquon Barkley.  It’s safe to say that Dobbins ends up somewhere between those two disparate career paths, but I’d skew closer to Barkley because the fact is that few backs are that big and that quick.

When I think about Dobbins I can’t help but think of the famous line from an Elizabeth Barrett Browning poem, “How do I love thee? / Let me count the ways.”  Dobbins is a jack-of-all-trades, without that pesky master-of-none caveat, and will be a Top 100 player in 2020.

 

Johnathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin

Oh, Jonathan Taylor.  I love watching Taylor play but it’s always bittersweet for me as a New Jersey native and Rutgers fan.  Taylor, who hails from southern Jersey, always had his eye on Wisconsin and Badger fans are grateful.  In two seasons in Madison, Taylor has 606 carries for 4,171 yards and 29 TDs.  Those numbers are impressive and if he can repeat his successes in 2019 his career stats will be staggering.  In the aforementioned study of big plays, I was shocked to see that Taylor had SIXTY-ONE runs of 10+ yards in 2018.  Again, I have no research to show that that stat is predictive of anything but I love it nonetheless.

One of the most frequent talking points for a running back is the “tread on the tires” and it is reasonable to worry about wear and tear on his body.  He’s been durable so far though so I’m not going to ding his stock due to a high volume of carries.  If it does worry you, think of it this way: he does play in an NFL style offense so he should be able to adjust quickly and not waste precious time adapting.  Perhaps most concerning for Taylor’s prospects is his lack of involvement in the passing game.  In 27 career games, Taylor has just 16 receptions.  Per MaxPreps, Taylor had just 9 receptions in his last two seasons in high school.

Let’s get into what makes Taylor so much fun to watch.  Taylor is a momentum runner who can punish defenses when he makes a decisive cut.  In this play against Miami from 2018, Taylor hits the second level and makes an effective cut which puts him in position to break two ankle tackles and pick up a few extra yards.

Taylor is outstanding at turning a short gain into a longer one.  In this next play, Taylor gets bottled up at the line of scrimmage but he remains patient and finds a hole.  In a blink he has the entire defense chasing him Keystone Cops style.

Taylor’s speed is something that will be talked about a lot this season.  In my offseason notes I put down that I thought he had 4.55 speed with good acceleration.  The evidence points to me being wrong on his top-end speed though.  Taylor made Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List and was a former high school track star.  In Feldman’s article, he shares that Taylor ran a 4.30 this offseason.  I’m open minded and willing to admit I might have been wrong about Taylor’s speed.

Taylor is within 2,234 yards of the FBS record for career rushing yards and I’m hopeful that he puts up another monster season and breaks the mark.  Even if it’s not a record-breaking season, I expect Taylor to come out for the 2020 NFL Draft.  If he does declare early, Taylor will be a Top 5 back in the class.

Honorable Mentions

Nathan Stanley, QB, Iowa: The Big Ten has a number of quarterback prospects who are on the fringe of being draftable. I don’t feel confident about it but right now I’d pick Stanley over Shea Patterson or Brian Lewerke. Honestly, I think it might be the fact that I’ve seen less of Stanley and so the unknown makes me wonder about his potential. Of the three, Stanley is the biggest (a stout 6040/43) and has the most experience (31 games, 26 starts).  He also plays in a pro-style offense that has consistently produced NFL talent.  In highlights it looks like Stanley has great touch and adequate arm strength.  As I write this and the more I watch of his highlights, the more I’m ready to talk myself into Stanley as a Top 10 quarterback in this class.

KJ Hill, WR, Ohio State: Hill is a productive slot receiver whose route running is top notch.  He sells his changes of direction well which allows him to get open when some other receivers would still be covered.  Hill is good for some run after catch yardage and features a spin-out move that is effective.  He’s a willing blocker and has above average play strength.  One of my favorite #DraftTwitter follows is Mark Jarvis of @WhatsOnDraftNFL and he currently has Hill as his WR1 for the 2020 class.  Jarvis watches a ton of tape so I’m happy to see that a player I liked made (the top of) his list.

Tyler Johnson, WR, Minnesota: When all is said and done come January, I think Tyler Johnson could be the 2020 prospect with the widest range of potential outcomes.  I’ve seen him ranked as high as WR1 and have also seen analysts leave him off their rankings altogether.  I’m somewhere in between those extremes.  Johnson can win both inside and out so he’s a high-volume target in an otherwise mediocre Gopher offense.  His feet are explosive off the snap and out of his breaks and he understands how to uncover to make himself a target.  After the catch he’s a dynamic runner who is elusive and break-away fast.  Before we commit to any hot takes about Johnson, let’s wait and see how he fares in 2019.  Right now, I would predict that a solid NFL Combine cements Johnson to a mid-rounder.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, Michigan: Donovan Peoples-Jones is part of a talented group of receivers in Ann Arbor that also includes Nico Collins and Tarik Black.  Peoples-Jones is the only of the three who has stayed healthy in his first two seasons though, so he has a leg up when it comes to his draft stock.  In addition to being a solid possession receiver with good body control, Peoples-Jones excels as a punt returner — he leads the NCAA in returns and is third in yards over the last two seasons.  His open-field running skills are on display after the catch as well.  Peoples-Jones probably hasn’t proven himself enough to garner much hype yet but keep an eye on him.

 

Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When studying a player I rely on game film “cuts” which are most frequently found on Youtube. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels.  Keep in mind these highlight reels are the best plays of that player. When I have the option, I will choose to watch a game versus the better defense. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
  • NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

The Watch List: 2019 SEC Season Preview

Updated: August 25th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Spring and Summer as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Contender: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama.  Tagovailoa, the 2018 runner-up, is my preseason pick to win the 2019 Heisman.  He’ll need to fend off Oregon’s Justin Herbert for the QB1 mantle, but Tagovailoa has the inside track for the trophy because he’ll put up bigger numbers and contend for a championship.

Underclassman to Watch: JaTarvious Whitlow, RB, Auburn. Redshirt sophomore running back JaTarvious Whitlow earned the starting job last season but battled multiple injuries which limited his effectiveness in a few games.  He finished with a 787-6 rushing line and added 15-173-2 as a receiver.  Whitlow is wide-shouldered and stout, and runs with a downhill style; his style is especially effective when the defense is spread wide and Whitlow can find creases between the tackles.  He served as the team’s wildcat quarterback and I would expect even more trick plays this year, like the touchdown pass he threw against Georgia.  Whitlow will be pushed by senior Kam Martin and freshman Mark-Antony Richards.  It’s still unclear who will be handing off to the running backs, either redshirt freshman Joey Gatewood or true freshman Bo Nix.  Head coach Gus Malzahn has been coy about who his season opening starter will be.  Regardless, the Tigers backfield is set for years to come. [Editor’s note: Bo Nix was named the starter.]

Newcomer of the Year: Riley Neal, QB, Vanderbilt.  The draft stocks of the Commodores’ three NFL-ready prospects — RB Ke-Shawn Vaughn, WR Kalija Lipscomb and TE Jared Pinkney — will rely heavily on graduate transfer quarterback Riley Neal.  Neal joins from Ball State where he battled injury and inconsistency the last few seasons.  He’s experienced with 34 career games and has NFL size at 6060/225 but is his arm worthy of the SEC?  Neal’s pro upside may be limited to that of a camp arm, however he’ll be a capable game manager that can get Vanderbilt their first winning season since 2013.

Coaching Carousel: There’s not a single new head coach in the SEC this season, so instead we’ll concentrate on the coach on the hottest seat.  That’s likely Arkansas gipper Chad Morris.  Morris left SMU after just three seasons, finishing with a 14-23 record and just one bowl game (a 51-10 shellacking from Louisiana Tech).  Prior to SMU, he made a name for himself as Clemson’s offensive coordinator from 2011-2014, the first four seasons of their rise under Dabo Swinney.  I think we’re twelve disappointing games away from realizing that Morris wasn’t yet ready to land an SEC head coaching job.

Players to Watch

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

For the last three years, #DraftTwitter has been talking about Tua Tagovailoa so his impending draft eligibility feels bittersweet.  By now, Tua’s story is well known to even casual fans but let’s hit the highlights here.  Tagovailoa, a lefty from Hawaii, was the top quarterback prospect in the 2017 class according to multiple recruiting services.  Despite his tremendous potential, he was the understudy for much of the 2017 season.  That is, until the Hollywood-esque climax in the national championship game where he came in at halftime to spell an ineffective Jalen Hurts.  Tagovailoa kept the starting job in 2018 and led the Tide to another championship appearance on his way to a second place Heisman finish.  The 2019 season starts with even larger expectations as Tagovailoa is the unquestioned leader — Hurts grad transferred to Oklahoma — and has an incomparable receiving corps at his fingertips.

Plenty of digital ink has been spilled on Tagovailoa and his best traits so it’s doubtful I’m blazing any new trails in my analysis.  He throws a beautifully weighted deep ball that always manages to lead the receiver just right.  He is a jazz maestro who can improvise when a play breaks down.  When he wants to be, he can be mobile and pick-up key first downs with his feet.  His pocket awareness is typically great and he can tap dance his way out of pressure while keeping his eyes downfield.  Tagovailoa has such an innate ability to succeed on any given play that it can actually be difficult to put into words.

Like you, I watched plenty of Alabama football last season.  However, I wanted to look at Tagovailoa with fresh eyes so I concentrated on two 2018 game films: Tennessee and Georgia.  Much of my initial assumptions about his play held, but it was clear to me that there were two aspects of his game that I should highlight.

In this play against Tennessee, you’ll see what it looks like when Tagovailoa is at his improvisational best.  He starts going through his progressions as the play unfolds.  There’s a split second where he considers leaving the pocket but instead he keeps looking for an open receiver.  He ultimately sees Jerry Jeudy in single coverage.  Jeudy recognizes that his quarterback is in trouble and looks to get open.  He starts towards the center of the field to give Tagovailoa a shorter throw, but instead, Tagovailoa leads him towards the far sideline of the end zone.  Even from the opposite hash, the ball is placed well.  Any cross-body throw can be dangerous but it seems like Jeudy was the only one in position to make a play.  I bet it was a conscious decision to throw Jeudy towards the sideline so that the sitting defender was out of the play.

You’ll see similar scramble drill touchdowns strewn throughout Tagovailoa’s highlights.  There are a number of times that it doesn’t work out positively though.  I think that he wins so often that it’s difficult for Tagovailoa to realize when a sack or a throw-away are the best available options.  In this play against Georgia, he pirouettes his way into an eleven yard loss.  He was already outside the pocket when he set his feet the first time so once he realized he didn’t have an open receiver he could have thrown it away for another shot from the six yard line.  Instead, he threw an interception on the next play.

My favorite play of Tagovailoa’s from this study came in the third quarter of the Tennessee game.  The game was well in hand and this score actually was his last snap of the game.  What stood out was his ability to manipulate the pocket with his feet.  Tagovailoa often shows a feel for when to climb the pocket, when to sidestep the rush or when to escape, but this play against Tennessee was just wonderful.  It’s hard to see it in GIF form but if you watch the actual footage on YouTube and slow it down you can really see how natural his pocket mobility can be.  After he drops back he feels the pressure coming from the right side, his blindside.  He steps up then takes two subtle steps to his right.  These gather steps, as I’ll call them, are what screamed out to me to be featured in this preview.  By moving to his right, Tagovailoa is able to get a few steps further away from the collapsing pocket and gives himself a better throwing lane.  It also puts him square in the sight of the middle linebacker who is coming on a delayed rush.  Tagovailoa surely sees the linebacker sprinting straight at him but he still delivers a lofted deep ball.  The receiver is able to get underneath it and has just enough length to make the play in stride.  I loved it.

It’s clear to me that Tagovailoa has a natural ability that can transcend.  I think he has the potential to be truly special.  I do think he has some more to show NFL scouts though, such as making smarter decisions under pressure and that he can limit the accumulation of small injuries.  We’ll be debating Tua Tagovailoa versus Justin Herbert all season and I can’t wait.  If Tagovailoa isn’t the first overall pick in April, he’ll surely be off the board second or third.

Honorable Mentions

With so many NFL prospects in the SEC, I found myself struggling to decide who to feature in the Players to Watch section.  In an effort to give readers a feel for the breadth of NFL talent in the conference, I decided to give Tua Tagovailoa a full spotlight and then include more honorable mentions than I usually do.

Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia: Fromm pulled a “Wally Pipp” in 2017, stealing the starting job when incumbent Jacob Eason went down with an injury in the season opener.  He hasn’t looked back since, mostly because his success forced both Eason and the highly touted Justin Fields to transfer.  Eason is battling for the job at Washington and Fields is expected to be the number one for Ohio State.  I’ve often viewed Fromm as a game-manager type but I need to reconsider due to the the fact that he beat out two guys who may lead their respective teams to playoff contention.  Fromm is listed at 6020/220 and looks cocked and ready in the pocket as he scans the field.  He confidently slings it in highlights.  Fromm isn’t a threat to take off running but he shows good functional mobility in the pocket.  I predict NFL teams will feel he’s immediately pro-ready and he’ll be drafted higher than #DraftTwitter rates him.

Lamical Perine, RB, Florida: Perine has been the beneficiary of some recent online hype so I decided I should take a look at some highlights to get a feel for his game.  I didn’t note any elite physical traits, but Perine doesn’t need them to succeed because in my short study it appears that he has fantastic patience and vision.  He sets up his blocks well and keeps his eyes forward to find his next avenue.  One specific run against Vanderbilt sealed it for me because he essentially hid in his blocker’s shadow, with a hand on his back, for much of the 20+ yard run.  I never seem to watch much Gator football but if Perine crests 1,000 yards this year he’ll be on my short list for offseason study.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia: Swift is my current 1.01 for 2020 rookie drafts.  He’s a smart runner who takes excellent angles in the second level and can make tacklers miss with strong cuts.  Swift is also an excellent receiver who runs multiple routes, uses his hands to catch and adjusts well to the ball in the air.  I noted he’s very aware pre-snap, reading the defense and his assignment, which signals to me that he has potential to be an excellent pass protector as he develops.  Swift doesn’t have the short area speed that some other backs in the class have but his long speed is more than enough to break off long runs.  The 2020 running back class could be historic and Swift will be one of the reasons why.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB, Vanderbilt: Vaughn is a former Illinois transfer who showed out in his first season in Nashville.  He ended the year with 1,244 rushing yards and 12 TDs; his 7.9 yards per carry led the SEC.  Vaughn runs with a useful combination of power and speed: he can convert near the goal line and has a 4.45 top speed.  I also noted great contact balance which helps him keep runs alive after contact.  His vision is also a plus.  I thought he showed an innate ability to find cut back lanes and secondary holes.  When he does find these, he sticks his foot in the ground and generates enough push to bounce outside or get upfield.  As a fifth year senior, Vaughn is an older prospect which might limit his NFL window but he should still factor in at the next level.

Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina: Edwards is a powerfully built outside receiver who tracks the ball well and frequently secures difficult catches.  He’s fast enough at the college level to separate and be a downfield threat, but I think his NFL role will be more of a reliable possession receiver.  That role will best suit his play strength and body control which allow him to excel along the sidelines and when contested.  Edwards isn’t a sexy name in this class but he has a high floor and is likely to be fantasy relevant in the pros.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama: Jerry Jeudy really deserved a larger write-up for this preview.  However, I know he’s somebody I will be writing about throughout the season so I thought it was best to sacrifice some column inches here in order to highlight a few other players.  Jeudy is sudden as a route runner — he can change directions in a blink and can stop on a dime.  He displays both long and short speed with what I described in my notes as “incredible acceleration.”  The biggest knock on Jeudy will be his size.  At a lean 6010/192, Jeudy needs to prove that his body can withstand the punishment of an NFL season.  Perhaps the criticism is unfair because Jeudy played in all 29 of Alabama’s games in his first two seasons (he did have a minor knee surgery before the 2018 season but didn’t miss any of the regular season).  If he paces a talented group of Tide receivers again in 2019, Jeudy will contend for the 1.01 in 2020 rookie drafts.

Kalija Lipscomb, WR, Vanderbilt: Kalija Lipscomb is deployed all over the field: as a receiver he lines up on both sides, inside and out; he takes hand-offs; he returned punts his first two seasons.  I watched Lipscomb against Georgia and Notre Dame from last season and came away impressed with his route running.  He uses leverage well, varies his speed to confuse the corner and can suddenly change direction.  Lipscomb is listed at 6010/201 but looks more wiry than that, especially in his lower body.  Despite that, he’s feisty, often hand fighting on his route and not being afraid to throw a block or come across the middle.  Lipscomb is a do-everything receiver who will find a role in the NFL, likely out of the slot and on special teams.

Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama: Henry Ruggs stood out among a crowd of Alabama pass catchers because of his his sticky-strong hands.  The highlight reel I watched was subtitled “go go gadget hands” in a nod to the Inspector Gadget character, and it fits Ruggs.  He can make tough hands catches away from his body, even with a defender on his back.  I was also impressed with him after the catch because he runs with great burst and an abandon that belies his stature.  Ruggs and fellow WR Devonta Smith will be fascinating players for draft rankers.  I think it would be easy to subconsciously lower a player like Ruggs in your rankings because it feels odd to highly rank two players of the same position from the same team, but if Ruggs checks the metaphorical boxes why should we discount him just because of who else is on his team (a la Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson in the 2019 class).

Albert Okwuegbunam, TE, Missouri: Okwuegbunam was the first prospect I studied this offseason because I remembered his dominant eleven touchdown redshirt freshman year (on just 29 receptions).  His scoring rate and yards per catch dropped in 2018 but he was more involved in the offense overall, grabbing 43 balls.  Okwuegbunam is an excellent receiver who uses his hands and fingertips to secure the catch and utilizes good body control to finish.  I felt he lacked the suddenness and explosion in his blocks but I was surprised by how often he lined up as an inline blocker, so there may be room for improvement.  The biggest concern with Okwuegbunam may be his availability — he missed three games last year with a shoulder injury and this offseason he’s been dealing with a knee and “a number of things.”  If healthy, Okwuegbunam is likely to be a Top 10 tight end in the class.

Jared Pinkney, TE, Vanderbilt: Of the three Commodores, Jared Pinkney, probably has the highest draft stock right now.  At 6040/260, Pinkney has the size of a traditional blocking tight end but he put up the production of a move tight end (50-774-7 last year).  Draftscout.com has Pinkney as their top senior tight end and the fifth overall behind a few underclassmen.  They project Pinkney as having 4.67 speed.  No other tight end in the last four classes has weighed 260+ and run under a 2.70.  I only watched a few clips of Pinkney but I am encouraged by what I saw, especially when paired with his size/speed/production profile.

 

Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When studying a player I rely on game film “cuts” which are most frequently found on Youtube. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels.  Keep in mind these highlight reels are the best plays of that player. When I have the option, I will choose to watch a game versus the better defense. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
  • NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

The Watch List: 2019 Sun Belt Season Preview

Updated: June 25th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Spring and Summer as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Contender: Zac Thomas, QB, Appalachian State.  In his first season as the starter, Thomas showed Mountaineers fans that he could ably take over for long-time starter Taylor Lamb.  Thomas is a dual-threat quarterback who runs the zone read well.  He has the potential to hit 3,000 combined yards and 30 combined TDs.  Non-conference upsets against North Carolina and South Carolina would earn Thomas and App State some national pub.

Underclassman to Watch: Marcel Murray, RB, Arkansas State.  As a true freshmen last season, Murray led Arkansas State in rushing with 860-8.  He also added 16 receptions for 141 yards and 2 scores.  The team vacates nearly 1,500 yards in rushing so there should be plenty of touches for Murray.

Newcomer of the Year: Dahu Green, WR, Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves had the conference’s most prolific passing attack in 2018, averaging 281.5 yards per game.  They return three of their four leading receivers, however they need to break in a new quarterback this season.  In addition to those three returners will be Dahu Green.  Green isn’t technically a “newcomer” but he might as well be.  He’s a former 3-star recruit who transferred from Oklahoma after the 2016 season.  He sat out 2017 and then got hurt in the first outing of 2018.  Green, who is listed at 6050/197, will be a wildcard in Arkansas State’s effort to maintain their passing prominence.

Coaching Carousel: The Sun Belt’s top two teams, Troy and Appalachian State, welcome new head coaches this season and may struggle to repeat a combined 14-2 conference record in 2019.  Both new coaches, Chip Lindsey and Eli Drinkwitz, got their starts as position coaches in the Sun Belt before ultimately moving on to Power 5 offensive coordinator positions.  Drinkwitz went from Arkansas State to Boise State to North Carolina State; Lindsey went from Troy to Southern Miss to Auburn.  If Arkansas State wants to wrest the championship trophy from the East, this will be their chance while the West reloads.

Players to Watch

Caleb Evans, QB, Louisiana-Monroe

Evans is likely the best quarterback prospect in the conference so I thought it was important to feature him in my preview.  Evans will be a third year starter and will be looking for his first winning season in 2019.  In both 2017 and 2018 he topped 2,800 passing yards and had 33 combined passing TDs.  Unfortunately his interceptions spiked in 2018, from 6 to 12.  He’s a running threat with rushing lines of 573-13 and 632-10 the last two campaigns.  Evans is listed at 6020/210 and looks sturdy enough for the next level.

Unsurprisingly, it’s difficult to find good film of Evans this early because he’s an unheralded name.  I was able to find a number of highlight reels on Youtube (the best of which created by the school itself which is rare in my experience, so props to the ULM video team).  What struck me first about Evans was that he looks composed and poised in the pocket.  He does not appear to get rattled by the rush and even though he’s a good runner, he can still keep his eyes upfield.  In this example from the South Alabama game, Evans is flushed after a blown block.  It looks like he’s going to take it himself but he’s unlikely to get the first down.  Instead, he flips it to an alert receiver who easily gains the first.

When he does decide to keep the ball, Evans can make defenders miss.  This dance routine against Louisiana-Lafayette in 2017 is from a bad angle but you can see how many times he tries to find a crease only to have to move on to the next.  When he does finally get forward, he tries to make one last guy miss by spinning out of the tackle so he falls forward and gains extra yardage.

I wish I were able to get a better feel for Evans arm strength and ball placement but that proved to be difficult with the film available.  I suspect that he has better placement than power but I’ll need to watch more before I can truly say that.  The Warhawks have two early season contests, Florida State and Iowa State, that will be proper showcases for Evans against Power 5 defenses.

We may hear a lot about Evans in 2019 because I suspect they may be a surprise eight win team.  Per Phil Steele, ULM is one of the most experienced teams in the nation.  Even better news for Evans, all five offensive line starters return, combining for the second most returning offensive line starts in the FBS.  It’s clear that Evans has some desirable physical tools and he will have a chance to display those again this season.  If he protects the ball better and shows us his arm talent, he’ll be a priority UDFA, if not better.

 

Kirk Merritt, WR, Arkansas State

I settled on Kirk Merritt as my second player preview for the most pragmatic of reasons: there was a full game film available on Youtube.  At first glance, I thought I was going to have a simple write-up of a productive slot receiver.  However, after I did some more research, I realized there is a lot to Merritt’s journey to Jonesboro as a sought after JUCO transfer.  Merritt was originally a 4-star recruit who landed at Oregon and played in eleven games as a freshman (he mostly played special teams).  He transferred for family reasons in 2016 to Texas A&M.  He would never see the field for the Aggies though because he was dismissed from the team after two alleged incidents of “indecent exposure” (Merritt’s lawyer blamed it on a severe case of “jock itch” which seems dubious).  Merritt landed at East Mississippi Community College, the host of the aptly named Netflix series Last Chance U.  He led the team with 52 receptions on their way to another national championship.  247Sports had Merritt pegged as the 4th best JUCO receiver.  He chose Arkansas State over offers from Bowling Green, Troy and others.  A lot to digest there but let’s move on.

Once he saw the field at Arkansas State, Merritt produced right away.  He ended the season as the leading receiver of a fertile passing offense: 85-1,005-7.  Merritt is strictly a slot and screen receiver from what I saw.  His game logs back up that assertion as well: he had seven games where he had 3+ receptions and averaged less than 10.0 yards per reception.  The team force feeds him the ball as an extension of the running game (in fact, his 6010/215 frame looks more like a running back) because he can make tacklers miss in the open field.  He usually avoids the first defender and then if he has a block or some open space he can hit the second level and beyond.  I was glad to see he did often use his hands to snatch the ball.  He’s often stationary and facing the quarterback when he catches the ball so it would be easy to let the ball get into his body.  On this play, you can see Merritt hands-catch the ball and then he shows a flash of his dynamism as he performs a looping spin move around the first defender and then has a short sprint to the goal line.

Merritt’s entrée into the NFL will be as a special teamer.  He’s a good blocker — more on that in a second — and wherever he’s played he’s contributed as both a punt and kick returner.  My favorite play of Merritt’s was a block early in the Georgia Southern game.  It was the first of many times I saw Merritt win as a blocker.  He squares up, maintains contact with the defender for nearly five seconds and then finishes the block by bringing him to the ground out of bounds.  To me, it shows that Merritt is a high effort player who doesn’t mind doing the little things.  The play made me feel like Merritt is tailor made for a special teams role — imagine him wrestling with a gunner on a punt return.

I don’t know Merritt and his background enough to make a personal judgment, so I’ll just leave it at this: Merritt has the ability to land in the NFL as a special team stalwart.

Honorable Mentions:

Dan Ellington, QB, Georgia State: Ellington, a JUCO transfer, suffered through a 2-10 season in his first on campus in Atlanta.  Despite the poor record, there are some things that intrigue me about Ellington.  First is his size: he’s listed at 6030/205 and has a thick frame for a quarterback.  Second is his rushing ability: he led the team with 625 yards of rushing and 5 TDs.  Lastly, in the highlights I watched it appears that Ellington has the ability to throw a pretty deep ball.  We’ll get to see Ellington versus the Tennessee Volunteers in Week 1 so let’s see how he does against an SEC defense — if he holds his own, we’ll need to monitor him.

Trey Ragas, RB, Louisiana-Lafayette: Ragas is a bear of a back at 5110/227.  He runs with good balance and an ability to get lower than the tackler, requiring multiple defenders to bring him down.  What he lacks in breakaway speed he makes up for in short-yardage punch.  He caught more balls than I expected based on what I saw (25-229-2) which was a pleasant surprise.  Ragas is unlikely to be sought after in next year’s draft but he could catch on in a situational role.

Darrynton Evans, RB, Appalachian State: Evans was the beneficiary of RB Jalin Moore’s injury-shortened 2018 season.  Evans led the Mountaineers rushing attack with 1,187 yards and 7 TDs.  I watched his sophomore and junior highlights and was impressed with his open-field ability.  He has 4.45-4.50 speed and just enough strength to shed a tackler.  He’s listed at 5110/191 but looks a bit leaner than that.  Evans adds to the squad on special teams — 26.3 kick return average and 2 TDs — but I would like to see him produce more as a receiver this season.

Corey Sutton, WR, Appalachian State:  When I started researching Corey Sutton I came across the unfortunate mess that his 2017 transfer from Kansas State became.  Seemingly through no fault of his own, Sutton’s saga became headline fodder.  Then head coach Bill Snyder denied Sutton’s release to all 35 schools Sutton requested, none of which were K-State opponents.  Snyder added to the drama when he said that Sutton failed two drug tests, a rumor that Sutton denied and that after my search seems unfounded.  What a mess.  I’m glad that Sutton landed on his feet at Appalachian State and was able to succeed in 2018.  His stat line for the year was 44-773-10.  Sutton, listed at 6030/205, lines up both in the slot and outside.  I think his future will be as a big slot who has big play potential and an acrobatic flair.

 

Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When studying a player I rely on game film “cuts” which are most frequently found on Youtube. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels.  Keep in mind these highlight reels are the best plays of that player. When I have the option, I will choose to watch a game versus the better defense. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
  • NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

The Watch List: 2019 NFL Draft Previews, WRs Harmon & Metcalf

Updated: March 8th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Winter and Spring as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

In this week’s entry in my NFL Draft Previews series, we’ll be taking a closer look at receivers Kelvin Harmon and DK Metcalf.  I decided to highlight Harmon because I am currently higher on him than the consensus.  I vacillated on who else to include until it recently became evident that I must include Metcalf too, because, well, dude is swole.  Harmon and Metcalf are actually a perfect duo for this piece because they are names that casual NFL Draft fans became more familiar with at the combine. Let’s get to it!

 

Kelvin Harmon, WR, North Carolina State

  • Combine measurements:

  • Stats:
Receiving & Rushing Table
Rece Rece Rece Rece
Year School Class G Rec Yds Avg TD
*2016 North Carolina State FR 10 27 462 17.1 5
*2017 North Carolina State SO 13 69 1017 14.7 4
*2018 North Carolina State JR 12 81 1186 14.6 7
Career North Carolina State 177 2665 15.1 16
Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 2/27/2019.
  • Film watched for this profile: Clemson 2017, Syracuse 2018

Full disclosure: Kelvin Harmon has been my WR1 or WR2 all season long.  I fell for him in the preseason and his great 2018 season only bolstered my confidence.  That’s saying a lot because this receiver class could be historic and on par with 2014 (my god: Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry).  The other leading receivers in the class, such as Metcalf and N’Keal Harry, all exhibit elite traits which they showed off at the combine.  Harmon, on the other hand, is less physically dominant and performed poorly at the combine.  Harmon shows, however, two traits that I value highly: route running and technique in the air.  He runs smart and varied patterns, and while he isn’t physical at the line, he uses his hands well at the top of his route.  While in the air, he shows an ability to adjust to the ball, uses his body well and catches the ball with his hands.  In such a congested class, I look for ways a player can differentiate himself.  Harmon does that with a nuance that some lack.  It would be easy to cast Harmon aside after his combine performance but I’ve seen enough on tape to still rank him highly.

My favorite route of Harmon’s came in the second quarter of the Syracuse game while the Pack were down 14 and needed a big play.  Harmon is set up on the outside to the field with plenty of room to work towards the sideline.  He sells the corner on an out-breaking route and cuts inside, using his head to sell the feint.  He’s free and clear immediately and nearly outruns the pass.  After he slows and makes the nice over-the-shoulder catch, he accelerates just enough to avoid the pursuing defender.

This replay angle from the 2017 Clemson game shows another great route by Harmon.  He puts in a lot of work before the ball is in the air so it’s unfortunate that the quarterback misses him so badly.

Awareness was something that I kept coming back to when watching Harmon’s film.  On this next play, Harmon makes a great effort as a blocker to give his running back a lane to the end zone.  The run ultimately fails, but you can see that Harmon is patient enough to let the play develop before he abruptly turns his body to put it between the defender and where the back should be.  I’ll bet they worked on this play frequently at practice and if the timing were right, that sudden turn would have been the reason the back made it to the goal line.  It was subtle but showed me that while he may not be the strongest blocker, he is an intelligent one.

Speaking of putting his body between the defender and the ball, Harmon continually showed me what my high school soccer coach called “ball-side, goal-side.”  Basically, he wanted us to keep ourselves, as defenders, between the player with the ball and the goal.  Harmon does that on nearly every route as he uses his frame to shield the defender from the ball.  On the play below against Clemson from 2017, most receivers would have body-caught the ball but Harmon makes the grab with his hands.  He quickly peeks over his shoulder for the nearest defender before he lands and turtles to protect the ball from the converging tacklers.

In addition to showing well on tape, Harmon also shows well in the boxscore.  He had a solid sophomore season in 2017 and improved further in 2018.  In fact, he led the ACC in receiving yards over the last two seasons with 2,203 (the next best was Olamide Zaccheaus with 1,953) and helped lead the Wolfpack to the 8th best passing offense in the FBS.  Harmon can be a compiler, as we saw in his game against Syracuse this season (he has eight career games with 8+ receptions), which is great for fantasy owners.

I’m disappointed that Harmon did not show better at the combine.  If he had, I would have locked him into my WR1 spot.  For now, I’ll pencil him at WR2, between Harry and Metcalf.  Hopefully he finds a favorable home in the NFL and I can keep him atop my rankings.  Draft Prediction: Round 2

 

DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss

  • Combine measurements:

  • Stats:
Receiving & Rushing Table
Rece Rece Rece Rece
Year School Class G Rec Yds Avg TD
2016 Ole Miss FR 2 2 13 6.5 2
2017 Ole Miss FR 12 39 646 16.6 7
2018 Ole Miss SO 7 26 569 21.9 5
Career Ole Miss 67 1228 18.3 14
Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 2/27/2019.
  • Film watched for this profile: Kentucky 2017, Louisiana-Monroe 2018
Even the most casual of fans has seen Metcalf’s name pop-up on social media lately.  Metcalf, along with his well-defined six-pack, is like a modern day Atlas, holding up the #DraftTwitter world.  Fortunately for Metcalf, and his agent, the buzz before, and especially during, the combine has elevated his NFL Draft stock significantly.  Heading into the 2018 season, Metcalf could usually be found in the WR5 range, now he’s leading many rankings.  “Hold on Bob,” you say, that’s not such a big leap from WR5 to WR1.  You’re right, but you’re also forgetting that Metcalf suffered a broken neck in October.  I don’t know how similar the injury is, but I dinged Clemson WR Mike Williams’ draft stock for his neck injury, and that was after he returned from surgery with a full 98-1361-11 season.  Instead of rehabbing at school and showing his resiliency as a Rebel, Metcalf decided to go pro.  If I were an NFL decision maker, that would worry me.  Plain and simple.

Due to Metcalf’s injury history, he also missed most of his freshman year due to a broken foot, he doesn’t have much on the stat sheet.  His 67 career receptions are less than many receivers in the class have in their second-best season (like Harmon).  His rate stats are encouraging, though they aren’t pulling from a large sample size.  In 2018, nine of Metcalf’s 26 receptions went for 20+ yards, including four 40+ yard touchdowns.  That’s an impressive big play rate for somebody of his size.

Perhaps I shouldn’t be surprised by his penchant for big plays given his combine measurables.  Metcalf undoubtedly stole the show in Indy when he put up great numbers in everything but the 3-Cone and Shuttle.  One of the knocks I often hear about Metcalf is that he’s not a great route runner and that may presaged by those poor 3-Cone and Shuttle scores.  He may have sacrificed some agility and change of direction ability to get as big and straight-line fast as he is.

When I watched his tape I was not that concerned about that impacting his game at the next level. The first thing that stood out in the Kentucky game was how often Metcalf had a decent release but was not targeted.  He repeatedly has quick feet at the line and uses his hands well to knock the corner off him.  In this play, which did not result in a target, you can see Metcalf’s quick feet off the snap which helps him get outside of the defender.  You can’t clearly see it in the clip, but he also smacks the defender’s hand off him.

Metcalf showed how well he uses his hands and strength to get free on this play as well:

On this next play, Metcalf strings all of the above into one great play.  If you are looking for a reason to draft Metcalf at 1.01 in your league, this is the only play you’ll need to see.  He stems outside and chops the defender’s hands to get himself free.  He then cuts inside and turns on his straight-line afterburners.  By the time the ball arrives, he’s comfortably ahead of the corner as he makes an over the shoulder catch.  The defender makes a last ditch dive but Metcalf keeps his feet and scores.  Watching the wide-angle replay lets you get a birds-eye view of DK checking off all the boxes.

The ending of that play was similar to a play I noted against Louisiana-Monroe.  In this one, Metcalf capitalizes on a bad read by the corner, stays in bounds, and uses a combination of speed/balance/strength to get to the end zone despite two attempts at taking his feet.

Despite the run-after-catch that Metcalf displays on these two plays, I did not notice that as a larger piece of his game.  Unfortunately, he did not run many different routes, primarily go routes and comebacks, so there wasn’t ample opportunity for him to get gone unless it was along the sideline.  Similarly, I would have loved to see a more varied deployment to show that he could fill multiple roles; he was almost exclusively used on the left side, at the line of scrimmage.  The film I watched did not show much of Metcalf blocking but there was one particularly bad example.  Somebody of his stature should do better than this.  It wasn’t just poor technique, it was poor effort.

I don’t want to end on a negative note so I’ll leave you with this last great play.  This one showed Metcalf’s ability to win in the red zone with his size and body control.  He also uses strong hands to secure the ball and survive the ground.

Paired with the earlier score against Kentucky, you can see why fantasy GMs are eager to draft Metcalf.  It’s clear that he has tremendous physical potential, but potential often gets NFL coaches fired.  I tend to be risk-averse in my evaluations, so if it were up to me as an NFL GM, the earliest I would pull the trigger on DK would be in the 25-35 range.  Honestly though, there’s no way he makes it that far unless he fails a physical.  I’ve already resigned myself to the fact that I will likely own zero shares of Metcalf and I’ll have to be okay with that.  Draft Prediction: Round 1

 

Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor.  Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When writing a full report for a player, I typically pick two games of film to watch.  When time permits, I may add a third game. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com, the media home for FWAA members
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: oddsshark.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

The Watch List: 2019 NFL Draft Previews, RBs Montgomery & Jacobs

Updated: February 27th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Winter and Spring as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

In this week’s entry in my NFL Draft Previews series, we’ll be taking a closer look at running backs David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs.  I purposefully put these two backs in the same preview because I thought their paths to this point in the 2019 NFL Draft process are contrasting.  It will be interesting to see which player ends up with the better draft pedigree: the guy whose been on dynasty owners’ radars for three years, or the guy whose workload was limited by a talented supporting cast but recently showed his full potential.  Let’s get to it!

David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State

  • Listed at: 5110/216 (per www.sports-reference.com)
  • Film watched for this profile: Iowa 2018, Washington State 2018
  • Stats:
Rushing & Receiving Table
Rush Rush Rush Rush Rece Rece Rece Rece Scri Scri Scri Scri
Year School G Att Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
2016 Iowa State 12 109 563 5.2 2 13 129 9.9 0 122 692 5.7 2
*2017 Iowa State 13 258 1146 4.4 11 36 296 8.2 0 294 1442 4.9 11
*2018 Iowa State 12 257 1216 4.7 13 22 157 7.1 0 279 1373 4.9 13
Career Iowa State 624 2925 4.7 26 71 582 8.2 0 695 3507 5.0 26
Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 1/25/2019.

David Mongtomery was my first love of the 2019 running back class from way back in late 2016.  I did a rudimentary Twitter search and count that I have tweeted about him seventeen different times.  I am positive that is the most of any player I’ve covered.  I’ve also written about Montgomery a number of times for the site, with my 2018 Big 12 preview being my most in-depth treatise.  In that piece, I concentrated on a few talking points: 1) his break-tackle ability, 2) his boom or bust tendency and 3) his contributions as a pass catcher.  This clip of Montgomery is one of my favorites and sums up just how hard it is to tackle him:

As that clip illustrates, Montgomery is tough to bring down.  He caught the 3rd and 1 swing pass and was destined for a loss.  Instead he made multiple defenders miss, deployed a killer spin move, set up a block well and dragged a defender for extra yardage.  In addition to his balance, his ability to break tackles is improved by his low center of gravity and leg strength.  Look at how compact he makes himself on this attempted tackle by a Wazzou defensive back.  The blow momentarily knocks him back but he has the power to keep himself upright and finish the run.

I was also looking for further evidence of Montgomery on passing downs as a blocker.  After all, if he may be the top back off the board in your fantasy draft you want to ensure you’re getting somebody with three down capability.  Unfortunately, I did not find too many instances of Montgomery in pass protection.  He’s on the field on passing downs but he’s often faking a handoff, running a route out of the backfield or lining up as a receiver.  In the three instances I took note of Montgomery’s blocking, he lost twice and won once.  This attempted cut block on 4th down against Iowa was a particularly bad example.

The most discussed knock on Montgomery is his speed.  He’s definitely not a burner with long speed, but I think he has enough functional speed to be productive in the pros.  My eye tells me he’ll probably run in the 4.55-4.60 range (i.e. Jamaal Williams or Wayne Gallman). What is most concerning to me is the fact that Montgomery seems to get bottled up for no gain far too often.  He can be very boom or bust.  My initial assumption was that it was due to a lack of vision but I found some advanced stats from Football Outsiders that made me pause and reconsider my judgment.  Per Football Outsiders, Iowa State’s offensive line ranked 105th (of 128) in Standard Downs Line Yards.  This stat essentially shows how many yards the offensive line helped create on a standard rushing down.  When you look at Opportunity Rate, which takes the running back’s performance more into account, the Cyclones rank moves up to 61st.  So, I’d like to optimistically think that Montgomery was mostly a victim of poor line play.  (For what it’s worth, Josh Jacobs’ Alabama ranked 2nd and 5th, respectively).

Since Montgomery has been my top prospect at the position for awhile, I know I am being harder on him than I will be on future evaluations.  I also know that the Josh Jacobs hype train is coming on strong which will bring more attention to Mongtomery’s flaws.  I still see value in Montgomery’s balance, pass catching and durability.  I also think that teams will love to see how often he lined up as a receiver.  I think that pick 50-65 is about right for Montgomery because he’s unlikely to move up draft boards after the combine.  Draft Prediction: Rounds 1-2

Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama

  • Listed at: 5100/216 (per www.sports-reference.com)
  • Film watched for this profile: Tennessee 2018, Clemson 2019, Highlights 2018
  • Stats:
Rushing & Receiving Table
Rush Rush Rush Rush Rece Rece Rece Rece Scri Scri Scri Scri
Year School G Att Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
*2016 Alabama 14 85 567 6.7 4 14 156 11.1 0 99 723 7.3 4
*2017 Alabama 11 46 284 6.2 1 14 168 12.0 2 60 452 7.5 3
*2018 Alabama 15 120 640 5.3 11 20 247 12.4 3 140 887 6.3 14
Career Alabama 251 1491 5.9 16 48 571 11.9 5 299 2062 6.9 21
Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 1/25/2019.

Josh Jacobs is a very interesting contrast to David Montgomery because he’s only been ballyhooed for months rather than years.  That doesn’t mean he’s any less of a prospect though, so don’t disregard him on a “sample size” or “work load” basis.  A lot of very knowledgeable experts will end up with Jacobs as their top back in the class and I’m okay with that because I am considering it strongly myself.

When I watched Jacobs live during the season, specifically at the end of the season, two things stood out more than anything else: 1) his burst and power as a straight ahead runner and 2) his success as a pass blocker.  Let’s investigate these two strengths further.

One of the best examples of the difficulty of tackling Jacobs came on a kick return against Louisville.  I had forgotten about this play but was thankfully reminded by a highlight reel I found on YouTube.  Jacobs receives the kick at about the 25 yard line and patiently lets his blocks develop.  He gets narrow through a hole, stiff arms a defender, breaks two tackles, maintains his balance along the sideline and manages enough speed to get to the endzone before the defenders catch him.  There wasn’t a whole lot of wiggle in the run, just a lot of forward momentum that propelled him to the promised land.

A seemingly minor 2nd and 9 early in the contest against Tennessee really illustrated just how well Jacobs creates yardage after contact by keeping his feet moving and falling forward.  On this play he squeezes through a small hole at the line of scrimmage and is first contacted about four yards short of the line to gain.  He breaks through the arm tackle and then lowers his shoulder to allow himself to rebound over the second defender who is going for a low tackle.  Ultimately he lands about twelve yards down field, getting the first down and putting the Tide well inside the red zone.  Jacobs did this a number of other times in my study and while each felt similarly unimportant, those additional yards add up on the stat sheet and on the defender’s body.

Against Clemson in the National Championship game, Jacobs was deployed as the Wildcat quarterback on multiple short yardage plays.  This replay angle of one of those plays wonderfully shows just how hard Jacobs had to work for that single yard.

After watching Jacobs live, I had very positive takeaways regarding his pass protection.  When I went back and re-watched some of the film though, I was less impressed.  I do believe that Jacobs has the instincts and intelligence to protect well, but he’ll need some work on timing and technique.  Sony Michel set a high bar for me in 2018 as a back who could block well which ultimately helped him earn a first round selection.  I don’t think Jacobs is on that level but he’s closer than many others in the class.  Here’s a play from the Clemson game in which Jacob finds his assignment and makes the block.  I’d like to see him take a sooner step towards the defender instead of letting him get into his body but the block was still effective enough.  What I enjoyed most was that after making the initial block, Jacobs does not give up on the play and hits the defender again to ensure that he opened a lane for his scrambling quarterback.

Jacobs has a chance to leapfrog the incumbent Montgomery as RB1 but I’m not quite ready to make the switch yet.  One of the consequences of Jacobs not having much tape is that he doesn’t have much bad tape.  Is that because he’s the best back in the class?  Or is it because Montgomery had more touches in the first nine games this year than Jacobs had in the last two seasons combined? Regardless of whether he’s the first or fifth running back off the board, it’s clear that Jacobs will be highly sought and could end up being a first rounder.  I think he will have immediate value in the NFL because of his ability to play on passing downs.  Draft Prediction: Rounds 1-2


Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor.  Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When writing a full report for a player, I typically pick two games of film to watch.  When time permits, I may add a third game. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com, the media home for FWAA members
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: oddsshark.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

The Watch List: 2018 Bowl Game Previews, Part I

Updated: December 9th 2018

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout bowl season as The Watch List will preview every game and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. 

Celebration Bowl, North Carolina A&T (9-2) vs Alcorn State (9-3), Sat 12/15 at 12:00pm on ABC

  • Draft Eligible Player to Watch: Lamar Raynard, QB, North Carolina A&T
    • I recalled watching Raynard last year in the Celebration Bowl and wanted to learn some more so I watched his 2018 film against Jacksonville State.  I came away more encouraged than I expected.  He has a good arm that allows him to chuck an effortless looking deep ball, however, his accuracy appears below average.  His footwork in the pocket is crisp.  I think he may be a little eager to leave the pocket but he has enough speed to pick up extra yardage.  Raynard had a great 2017 season (2,932-27-7) but regressed a bit in 2018 (1,630-18-5).  His career completion percentage is a shade under 60% which backs up my accuracy concerns.  Raynard is lanky at 6040/195 so a few extra pounds would do him well.  A&T primarily plays a zone-read offense but I did see him take some snaps from under center which is a bonus.  Given his height and arm strength I think somebody will give Raynard a shot, probably as a priority UDFA, to back up their running QB.
  • My Pick:  North Carolina A&T, -7.5
    • I won’t pretend to have a feel for this game because I don’t.  Chances are, your book won’t list this game anyway (I had to find a line on a European site) but if you do decide to play it, go for the Aggies.  A&T beat FBS team East Carolina earlier, has a recognizable name at quarterback and is on a four game winning streak.

Cure Bowl, Louisiana Lafayette (7-6) vs Tulane (6-6), Sat 12/15 at 1:30pm on CBSSN

  • Draft (In)Eligible Player to Watch: Trey Ragas, RB, Lousiana Lafayette
    • I struggled with selecting a worthy draft eligible player for this game.  I cheated and selected sophomore back Trey Ragas instead.  I figured it would make more sense to watch film of somebody who might actually factor into the game than somebody we’ll never hear from again.  I watched an extended highlight package of the Cajuns blowout loss to Alabama so I could glimpse Ragas against a top foe.  Ragas is a stout back at 5110/227 and as such prefers running straight ahead between the tackles.  He doesn’t stray from contact and in fact shows good contact balance and an ability to keep his feet moving leading to long runs.  I also thought he looked to be an eager, albeit over matched, blocker against an elite rush.  He didn’t record any receptions in the Alabama game but he does have 22 receptions and 188 receiving yards on the year.  That pairs with his 1,040 rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs to make for a great season.  Ragas won’t factor into the 2019 draft class but we could be talking about him again a year from now.
  • My Pick: Louisiana Lafayette, +3.5
    • This one is a toss-up between mediocre teams so I’ll take the points.  Louisiana-Lafayette is 9-4 ATS this season whereas Tulane is 5-7, which is just confirmation of the way I was leaning anyway.  The Cajuns have a strong rushing offense (fellow sophomore Elijah Mitchell added 866-12) and Tulane’s rush defense allowed 153.9 yards per game during the regular season.

New Mexico Bowl, Utah State (10-2) vs North Texas (9-3), Sat 12/15 at 2:00pm on ESPN

  • Draft Eligible Player to Watch: EJ Ejiya, LB, North Texas
    • While I was looking through statistics for these two teams, Ejiya stood out to me because he had both a high number of tackles (113) and a high number of sacks (9); he also had a conference-leading 23.5 tackles for loss.  It’s uncommon for somebody to have tallies that high in all three categories, especially for an inside linebacker.  I figured, “surely this guy must be a one year wonder.”  But he had an almost as impressive 108-12.0-7.0 line in 2017 as a junior.  I sampled Ejiya’s tape against Florida Atlantic and Rice from 2018.  What I saw tempered my expectations.  Ejiya looks small on the field (listed at 6030/230 which is a bit light anyway) and was often caught in the trash in the middle of the play.  I rarely saw him make quick, instinctual reads of the play.  Despite whatever he may lack, Ejiya does keep coming and is determined to make the play.  I saw him ultimately make the tackle on numerous snaps where it looked like he was going to be blocked or out of the play.  Ejiya has the capability to take over a game (four games with 11+ tackles, four games with 3.0+ tackles for loss, three games with 2.0 sacks) so it’ll be interesting to see him lined up across from Utah State’s standout sophomore QB Jordan Love (3,193-28-4, plus 60-6 rushing).
  • My Pick: Utah State, -10
    • Utah State has lost against the spread in their last two contests but prior to that they were 9-1 on the season.  Their offense ranks 3rd overall in the FBS in points scored (47.2) while North Texas averages 36.4.  Both teams feature strong quarterback play (Mason Fine, who helms the Mean Green, is efficient and prolific but too small for NFL consideration I believe) so I expect this one to be full of offense and Utah State’s is better.

Las Vegas Bowl, Arizona State (7-5) vs Fresno State (11-2), Sat 12/15 at 3:30pm on ABC

  • Draft Eligible Player to Watch: N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State
    • The Las Vegas Bowl is becoming known as the “One of These Teams has a Premier Prospect but Who Knows if They’ll Play Bowl.” Last year it was Oregon RB Royce Freeman (who ultimately declined to play). This year it could be N’Keal Harry. Harry has publicly said he didn’t yet make a decision about playing. If he does play, you’ll get a glimpse of the possible WR1 in the 2019 class. Harry has 6040 height but the speed and RAC ability of smaller receivers. He succeeds in contested situations because of his strength and vertical. If he plays, his 2018 stat line of 73-1,088-9 will improve and be right on par with his production from 2017 (82-1,142-8). If Harry does not play, keep an eye on Fresno WR KeeSean Johnson (no relation to Keyshawn). Johnson has improved year over year and looks like a mid-rounder for 2019.
  • My Pick: Fresno State, -3.  
    • I took Fresno and the points against Boise and they ended up winning straight up (really wish I took that moneyline!). They will easily handle Arizona State, especially if the Sun Devils are missing Harry. As I mentioned last week, seven of Fresno State’s last eight have gone under.

Camellia Bowl, Eastern Michigan (7-5) vs Georgia Southern (9-3), Sat 12/15 at 5:30pm on ESPN

  • Draft Eligible Player to Watch: Tyler Wiegers, QB, Eastern Michigan
    • This one is a bit of a stretch but there aren’t too many draft prospects in this game. I briefly considered Southern RB Wesley Fields (959-9) and Eastern’s edge rusher Maxx Crosby (62-7.5) but settled on Wiegers. Whenever you’re looking for a draft prospect, you can do worse than a 6040/227 quarterback. Wiegers started his career in Iowa but grad transferred to Ypsilanti for the 2018 season. He has a small sample size, just 270 career attempts, but as I’ll say dozens of times this offseason, it’s a weak quarterback class. Admittedly, I haven’t watched Wiegers tape, save for a few minutes of live game time here and there. His stat logs show an efficient, yet unexciting passer: 64.8% completion percentage, 7.1 yards per attempt, 11 TDs and just 3 INTs. In EMU’s last three wins, Wiegers has thrown for just 418-1-2 so let’s not get too excited.
  • My Pick: Georgia Southern, +3.5
    • Georgia Southern runs a triple option offense so I’ll give them the nod for novelty. The narrative will be that Eastern Michigan has time to prepare but by virtue of playing on the first day of bowl games, it’s not that much longer than usual. Southern has five guys with 300+ yards and as a team average 261.5 rushing yards per game (9th best in the FBS). Despite having such a robust rushing attack, they somehow manage to place dead last in the FBS in offensive plays per game – that was very surprising. They’ll roll against the Eagles’ 93rd ranked rushing defense and win this one straight up to hit double digit wins for the first time in program history.

New Orleans Bowl, Middle Tennessee (8-5) vs Appalachian State (10-2), Sat 12/15 at 9:00pm on ESPN

  • Draft Eligible Player to Watch: Ty Lee, WR, Middle Tennessee
    • I profiled Blue Raider QB Brent Stockstill last week so I figured this week I should focus on one of his targets. Lee is diminutive at 5090/178, but unlike his quarterback he’s been able to stay healthy throughout his career. Lee’s three seasons have been pretty similar and average out to a 69-820-7 line. In 2017 he also had 39 “rushing attempts” for 109-1 (presumably, most of these were screens that went backwards, save for some wildcat snaps). I watched segments of Lee’s 2017 Florida Atlantic tape and loved how varied his usage was. I saw him line up in the slot on both sides, flanking the quarterback and in the wildcat. I didn’t see too much speed so I checked for an estimate on DraftScout.com and they have him in the 4.49 range – hopefully he tests a bit quicker than that. He’s primarily a screen and swing receiver but his versatility could earn him a limited role at the next level.
  • My Pick: Middle Tennessee, +7
    • I’m going with an intangible, emotional argument on this one. MTSU quarterback Brent Stockstill will be playing in his last game for the school and for his dad, Rick who is the head coach. Stockstill has spent six years with the program after gray-shirting in 2013. As I mentioned last week, he’s an old and oft-injured prospect but he’s got a good story. There’s nothing to back this up but I think his teammates will play for him and get the W. (Plus, App State is 0-1-2 in their last three contests ATS).

Boca Raton Bowl, Northern Illinois (8-5) vs UAB (10-3), Tue 12/18 at 7:00pm on ESPN

  • Draft Eligible Player to Watch: Sutton Smith, LB, Northern Illinois
    • I skipped over Sutton Smith last week to feature Buffalo WR Anthony Johnson. I think Mr. Smith took that to heart because he came out with a dominating 10 tackle and 2.0 sack performance in the MAC Championship Game. I was only half watching the game but it felt like I heard his name called on nearly every play. Smith’s stats are outstanding and he’s been rewarded for them (2017 MAC Defensive Player of the Year, 2017 Consensus All-American). Over the last two seasons, he’s combined for: 109 tackles, 51.0 tackles for loss and 27 sacks. If he were bigger, we’d be talking about him as a potential first rounder. He’s listed at 6010/237 and that feels favorable. Smith will be drafted and be given a chance as a situational pass rusher but I think he’ll be one of those college stars that doesn’t translate in the pros.
  • My Pick: UAB, -1.5
    • I figured that UAB RB Spencer Brown would be the key to the C-USA Championship Game, if he played, and he was. Brown returned with a vengeance, racking up 31 carries for 156 yards and a score. He was, no doubt, the key to the rematch against Middle Tennessee. Northern Illinois has the nation’s 14th best rush defense so it’ll be a good strength vs strength battle. I’m looking forward to studying Brown for the 2020 draft so I’ll pick with my heart and lean Blazers.

Frisco Bowl, San Diego State (7-5) vs Ohio (8-4), Wed 12/19 at 8:00pm on ESPN

  • Draft Eligible Player to Watch: AJ Ouellette, RB, Ohio
    • Oullette is your basic vanilla mid-major runner. That sounds like an insult but I promise it isn’t. He has back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons and catches just enough passes to be relevant (19 receptions in 2018). From my limited exposure over the years, I don’t think he does anything particularly great but he’s good enough all-around. He’s a straight-ahead runner without much long speed. He does have enough wiggle to make a cut through a hole or make a defender miss and is a fall-forward kind of runner. As I write this, UDFA Gus Edwards is having a moment for the Ravens, and I feel like that’s the type of career Ouellette can have in the NFL. He’ll be a late rounder or a priority free agent and just about everybody will forget about him until he makes an unexpected impact. It probably won’t matter for fantasy purposes but as an actual fan of his NFL team you’ll be glad you had him.
  • My Pick: Ohio, -3
    • In addition to Ouellette, the Bobcats feature dual-threat quarterback Nathan Rourke. Rourke finished the season with a four score rushing performance against Akron (he ended with 816 rushing yards and 13 TDs). He’s also an efficient passer when called upon. The Aztecs have been a mess for bettors this year (3-9 ATS) and RB Juwan Washington doesn’t seem to be fully recovered from his midseason injury so I wouldn’t think twice about giving the points here.

Lines and betting stats courtesy of OddsShark.com, as of 12/2.

Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor.  My experimental grading system uses a Madden-like approach by weighting position relevant traits on a 100-point scale; bonus or negative points are awarded based on production, size, injury history and character.  Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games.  When time permits, I may add a third game. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com, mcubed.net
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com, the media home for FWAA members
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: oddsshark.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper