2018 NFL Mock Draft: Part I, Picks 1-16

Updated: April 24th 2018

If you have not already read Part IV of my mock draft, please start there so you can start at the bottom and follow through to the beginning.  Part IV includes detailed notes about my methodology and process.  You can then move on to Part III and then to Part II before continuing below.  An important note to remind readers is that this mock draft was compiled on March 30-31 so please keep the timing in mind as you read in case there are trades or free agent signings in the interim.

#16 – Ravens – Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

The Ravens have been desperate for a WR1 for what feels like a decade.  Sadly, I don’t think free agent signing Michael Crabtree is the answer nor are there are any true standout WR prospects in the class.  Despite my criticism, I believe that Ridley is the best of the bunch.  Aside from a solid 40 yard dash, Ridley mostly hurt his stock at the combine.  I previously had him as a Top 10 player but have dropped him because of lingering doubts.  Ridley is quick, shows good hands and is an excellent route runner.  When I watch him on film he just pops, damn the stats or the combine results.  I’m less convinced about his chance to become a team’s WR1 now than I was a year ago but I still think he can be a productive NFL receiver.

#15 – Cardinals – Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

Denzel Ward at #15 is an absolute steal.  In real life, I believe Ward will go higher because some team will either trade their pick to a team looking for a corner or some team will just go BPA and snag him.  He very likely could go a spot earlier to Green Bay but instead I have him falling to the Cardinals.  Unfortunately for the Cards, none of the top quarterbacks have made it this far so they’ll be the ones to go BPA and take Ward.  While researching Ward, I came across a telling stat: opposing quarterbacks completed just 32% of their passes when targeting Ward.  He had a very positive combine to go with the tape.  He tied for the fastest 40 yard dash by a corner (4.32), had the longest broad jump and the second highest vertical.

#14 – Packers – Derwin James, S, Florida State

James started the year in Top 5 consideration with Minkah Fitzpatrick but slipped a bit during a disappointing season for the Seminoles.  Long time starting safety Morgan Burnett is gone to the Steelers so Green Bay has a vacancy in their defensive backfield.  James excels in run support and near the line of scrimmage which would fit perfectly with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix at free safety.  The Packers did draft a safety last year in the second round, Josh Jones, but I don’t think that would be enough to make them pass on James.  Even though he and the team struggled at times, James still put up good totals (84 tackles and 2 INTs) in his comeback season from 2016’s knee injury.  Corner may be a more immediate need for the Packers but something about Derwin James in Green Bay felt right.

#13 – Redskins – Vita Vea, DT, Washington

The Redskins need a NT for their 3-4 scheme and there is none better in this class than Vita Vea.  He has refrigerator like size: 6’4″ and 347lbs.  He ran a 5.10 which sounds slow since we’re so conditioned to the times for RBs and WRs so let me put it into context.  Since 2010, he ran the second fastest of any defensive lineman 345lbs or more.  The only player faster was Dontari Poe who went 11th overall to the Chiefs in 2012.  Vea’s stat line isn’t overwhelming (43 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks in 2017) but that’s because you can’t measure his impact with the boxscore.  Lining him up alongside 2017 first rounder Jonathan Allen will create a stellar one-two punch for years to come.

#12 – Bills – Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

In my preview of Lamar Jackson this offseason, I comped him to then Bills QB Tyrod Taylor so it’s ironic that I have him landing here after Taylor’s trade to the Browns.  Jackson is an incredible runner as we all know.  There was rumors that he should switch to WR but that was ridiculous – he’s a good quarterback.  He may have a smaller frame than you would want from a run-first QB but he played 38 games in college and is not injury prone like the narrative suggests.  Could he sustain a freak, season-ending injury?  Of course, just ask Tom Brady.  Jackson’s accuracy needs to improve to truly make it in the NFL (57% career completion percentage).  I think he will start his career as an inefficient, big-play-waiting-to-happen type of quarterback.  It’ll come down to the timing of those big plays.  One last thought, can you imagine Lamar Jackson and LeSean McCoy running the read option together?  My god.

#11 – Dolphins – Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

If you had asked me a few months ago, I would have said that Smith would be the first linebacker off the board.  Fast forward to April and Tremaine Edmunds has leapfrogged him but the Dolphins would still be getting a Pro Bowl caliber player here.  Smith is slightly faster than Edmunds (4.51 vs 4.54) but is smaller at 6’1″ and 236lbs.  Over his final three games, under the brightest of spotlights in the SEC Championship and the College Football Playoff, Smith totaled 37 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and 2 sacks.  Pairing Smith with returners Kiko Alonso and Cameron Wake, the newly acquired Robert Quinn, and a hopefully-healthy Raekwon McMillan would give the Dolphins a fearsome front seven.

#10 – Raiders – Mike McGlinchey, T, Notre Dame

Much like how I picked Nelson for the 49ers to help protect their big money quarterback, I have done the same for the Raiders with McGlinchey.  Incumbent LT Donald Penn is 34 years old and coming off a season-ending foot injury in 2017 which could cause him to miss some offseason time.  Penn also has a huge roster bonus due in 2019, the last year of his deal, so I’ll bet that the Raiders are planning to move on from him regardless of his injury status.  The Raiders offensive line was already a strength of the team (they allowed just 24 sacks, tied for third best in the league) but adding somebody like McGlinchey would solidify the position long term.

#9 – 49ers – Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame

I was surprised to see that Nelson didn’t fit anywhere earlier for me.  He’s probably a Top 5 talent but teams rarely draft a guard that high.  A guard has only been taken this high four times since 1985 (coincidentally, twice in 2015; one of which is the much maligned Ereck Flowers from the Giants).  Nelson has some fantastic highlights and I love watching them whenever they show up on my Twitter timeline.  I’m not convinced the 49ers truly need to draft a guard this high but I figured that they just invested a ton of money in Jimmy Garappolo so they might as well add a piece to protect that investment.

#8 – Bears – Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

Tremaine Edmunds has climbed up draft boards since the start of 2017 and finds himself at #8 in my mock now.  He ran very well at the combine (4.54) and has fantastic size as well (6’5″ and 253lbs).  He was very productive in 2017: 108 tackles and 5.5 sacks.  Pair that production with his size and speed and you have a can’t miss linebacker.  He will feature as an ILB in the Bears 3-4 defense but because of his speed and explosiveness, he can get to the quarterback too so he’ll have value as a situational pass rusher as well.

#7 – Bucs – Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama

Tampa has thus far only re-signed one of their four free agent DBs, and have not signed any from other teams, signaling to me that it is a position they plan to target in the NFL Draft.  What better player to target than Fitzpatrick who played both CB and S at Alabama.  He likely factors more as a safety in the NFL but could see time as a strong nickel.  Depending on the matchup, I would expect to see him in shadow coverage against a dominant tight end.  Fitzpatrick struggled through a hamstring injury in 2017 but still managed to play 13 games.  Don’t overthink it.

#6 – Colts – Bradley Chubb, EDGE, NC State

Before the Colts traded the #3 pick to the Jets, Chubb was a common pick for them in mock drafts.  The fact that the Colts traded back, adding multiple second round picks, and still land Chubb is awesome.  Chubb put together back-to-back seasons with at least 10 sacks and 20 tackles for loss.  He finished the year as the ACC’s Defensive Player of the Year and a consensus All-American.  Like Barkley, he’s a better player than his draft slot would lead you to believe.

#5 – Broncos – Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

The Broncos traded QB Trevor Siemian and signed journeyman Case Keenum in free agency.  Keenum is 30 years old and his deal is only for two years so they’ve created a perfect situation to bring in a project QB like Allen.  Keenum can start in 2018 and possibly even into 2019 if necessary.  Allen’s accuracy issues are well documented and I am personally not a fan because of them.  Many who know more than I, however, think he has the tools to be a star in the league.  Coming in behind an established veteran would be the best thing for Allen’s future prospects.

#4 – Browns – Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Barkley is possibly the best true football player in the class, at worst he’s second to Bradley Chubb.  However, the quarterback run and general hesitance to draft running backs high lowers Barkley’s stock.  He’s an absolute stud and will be a fantasy monster from Day One.  He has an uncommon combination of size and speed and is a great receiver.  He did struggle at times in 2017 as a runner but when he did, he made up for it in the passing game.  If the Browns do go the direction I have planned for them, they would end up with a formidable offense in 2018.

#3 – Jets – Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

The run on quarterbacks continues!  I have read a lot of Mayfield/Jets connections in the last few months and when there is smoke, there is fire.  Mayfield is hyper-accurate and just plain hyper.  His personality has undoubtedly taken him off some teams’ draft boards but I would want him on my team.  My favorite part of the Senior Bowl might have been watching Mayfield on the sideline.  It was a non-competitive all-star game but there he was living and dying with each play, hyping up teammates and helping his fellow quarterbacks.  The only thing that makes me question this pick is the fact that the Jets brought in Teddy Bridgewater.  I have never been a Bridgewater fan so I still think the Jets should go for a QB here.

#2 – Giants – Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

I have previously compared Rosen to Giants QB Eli Manning so this seems like a great fit.  In my opinion, Rosen is the most NFL ready quarterback of this class.  He does have injuries in his past and some like to question his “love for the game” but that’s not factoring into my analysis.  He’s a prototypical pocket passer who will have a long NFL career.  It’s not often that you get a chance to draft a franchise quarterback so the Giants need to just make this pick and stop pretending that Manning is anything more than a stopgap option at this point in his career.

#1 – Browns – Sam Darnold, QB, USC

I don’t believe that Darnold is the best quarterback of this class, but I do think that he will be the first overall pick.  Darnold is a confident passer which results in turnovers just as often as it does spectacular plays.  He has an ability to extend the play with athleticism in the pocket and he is a team leader and motivator.  I noticed that he has a long throwing motion which worries me and might be the explanation for the high number of interceptions (the window closes before he actually gets rid of the ball) and the fumbles (because the ball dips so low, it’s a target for rushing defenders).  He has a high ceiling but also has a low floor – a high risk, high reward pick.


Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
  • Film: 2018 NFL Draft Database by @CalhounLambeau, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

2018 NFL Mock Draft: Part II, Picks 17-32

Updated: April 19th 2018

If you have not already read Part IV of my mock draft, please start there so you can start at the bottom and follow through to the beginning.  Part IV includes detailed notes about my methodology and process.  You can then move on to Part III and then finally to Part I once it is posted.  An important note to remind readers is that this mock draft was compiled on March 30-31 so please keep the timing in mind as you read in case there are trades or free agent signings in the interim.

 

#32 – Eagles – Orlando Brown, T, Oklahoma

If Orlando Brown didn’t attend the combine he would have been drafted higher.  Instead, he did participate and promptly became the butt of many jokes on #DraftTwitter.  The reason for the hate was just how unathletic Brown looked.  He ran a 5.85 40 yard dash, had a 19.5″ vertical jump, a 82″ broad jump and 14 bench reps – all worst at the position.  On the field though, Brown has been lauded with accolades throughout his career.  He was a 2017 consensus All-American and was a finalist for the Outland Trophy.  In 2015 and 2016, he was named to various awards lists as well.  The Eagles have added to the defense in the offseason, trading for DE Michael Bennett and CB Daryl Worley, so I think it makes sense to go offense here, specifically the line.  Starting tackles, Jason Peters and Lane Johnson are good but are not always available.  Peters is 36 and has a long injury history, meanwhile Johnson has already been suspended twice for PEDs in his short career.  Nobody should have been surprised that Brown is not an elite athlete, just watch some tape, but the hate has gone too far.  He’s 6’8″ and 345lbs and you can’t teach size.  The fact that he’s played 40 career games and is not an injury risk is just further reason to take him here and benefit from the discount his awful combine created.

#31 – Patriots – Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State

The Patriots love to go defense with their first pick and have done so every year, except 2011, since 2006.  In that range, there were two high profile LBs taken, Jamie Collins and Jerod Mayo, so we know the Patriots aren’t averse to drafting the position high.  Vander Esch was uber productive in the Mountain West this season (141 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 INTs, 4 forced fumbles) but really only has one year of experience as a starter because of a redshirt and a season mostly lost to injury.  If Vander Esch returned to school in 2018 and put up similar numbers, I would expect him to jump into the first half of the first round.  Instead, he’ll sneak in here and unsurprisingly, the Patriots will find value with a late first round pick.

#30 – Vikings – Connor Williams, T, Texas

In most years, Connor Williams probably wouldn’t warrant being the third tackle off the board but this is not the strongest class (similar to last year where only two were taken in the first round).  In 2016, Williams was a consensus All-American, improving on a freshman season that earned him freshman All-American honors.  In 2017, however, he only played in five games due to injury.  At the combine, Williams measured in as one of the smallest tackles so it’s possible that teams may try to move him inside.  Regardless of whether he deserves to be a first rounder, I think the Vikings will feel the need to add to their offensive line to help protect their new franchise quarterback, Kirk Cousins.  Centers Frank Ragnow or James Daniels are probably the best lineman on the board at this point but the Vikings are already set at the position with Pat Elflein.  Chalk this one up to team need rather than BPA.

#29 – Jaguars – Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama

Evans is a versatile linebacker who started his career as a pass rusher and has since transitioned inside.  He played very well down the stretch when the Tide needed him to be the primary inside backer due to injuries to Shaun Dion Hamilton and others.  Over his last six games, Evans had 8+ tackles in five of them.  Adding Evans to a starting linebacking corps of Telvin Smith and Myles Jack is almost unfair to the rest of the AFC South.  Evans has a lot of potential and I think he would fit right in with the ethos of the Jaguars defense.

#28 – Steelers – Mike Hughes, CB, UCF

Per Spotrac.com, the Steelers have yet to resign four DBs from 2017’s squad.  They did bring in safety Morgan Burnett from the Packers but they still need more depth.  Mike Hughes is an interesting prospect.  He started his career at UNC but was suspended after an alleged assault at a frat party.  After leaving UNC, he became a JUCO All-American and ended up at UCF where he shined in 2017 as a junior with 49 tackles and 4 INTs.  Hughes also contributes on special teams where he ranked top five in both kick return and punt return average.  In addition to his one interception return touchdown, he also returned two kicks and one punt for scores.  The Steelers ranked near the bottom of the league in both kick and punt return average in 2017.  So, even if Hughes is unable to unseat Joe Haden or Artie Burns as a starting corner, he could add value as a nickel and a return man.  The Steelers tend to use their starting receivers as returners, but it might behoove them to protect both Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster and let somebody else handle the kicks.

#27 – Saints – Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State

I really struggled with the Saints pick here at #27.  I considered local edge rusher Arden Key from LSU but decided he wasn’t worth the pick.  I also considered Mason Rudolph, the next best quarterback on my board, as the heir apparent for the aging Drew Brees.  Gesicki was my other choice but part of me didn’t want to put two tight ends back-to-back.  Once my mind flashed to Jimmy Graham back in the day with Brees and the Saints, I was sold.  Gesicki is an incredible athlete and labeling him as a tight end might be a misnomer because he’s not a good blocker and will serve primarily as a receiver.  Gesicki’s 2017 output at Penn State, 57 receptions for 563 yards and 9 TDs, is better than all three of the Saints’ 2017 tight ends combined.  The Saints did re-sign TE Benjamin Watson for a second stint which also made me hesitate with this pick.  Watson missed all of 2016 with an achilles injury but rebounded with a 61-522-4 line in 2017 as a 36 year old with Baltimore.  Watson is not going to factor into the team’s plans past this season (neither will Coby Fleener whose dead cap number drops next offseason), so it’s not crazy to think that they target another weapon for Brees.

#26 – Falcons – Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State

Dallas Goedert is now my top ranked TE in the class.  At various times over the last year, I have had Mike Gesicki and Hayden Hurst in that spot but I’ve become enamored enough with Goedert to push him up.  His usage in college reminded me of Travis Kelce with the Chiefs.  The team made a concerted effort to get the ball in his hands in creative ways to showcase his plus athleticism.  At worst, he’s an average blocker when compared to the other top prospects at the position.  That means he should be able to see playing time early in his career.  I like the idea of adding him to the Falcons’ 8th ranked passing offense.  I doubt the team is ready to give up on 2016 draft choice Austin Hooper, but combining Goedert with Hooper could shore up the only weakness of this offense.

#25 – Titans – Sam Hubbard, EDGE, Ohio State

Hubbard is my highest rated edge rusher left on the board.  His stat line of 42-13.5-7 is not amazing but that’s mostly a factor of playing on Ohio State’s dominant defensive line where he shared snaps with a number of future pros.  Hubbard played as a 4-3 end so it remains to be seen how he would fit with the Titans and new coach Mike Vrabel.  Like Matt Patricia, I expect Vrabel to adopt more of a multiple scheme rather than locking into a 3-4 or a 4-3, even though DC Dean Pees prefers a 3-4.  The Titans have spent heavily on former Patriot players Dion Lewis and Malcolm Butler, perhaps no surprise given Vrabel’s history in New England.  The relationship between Bill Belichick and Ohio State’s Urban Meyer and Greg Schiano is well known.  Since Vrabel has already shown a desire to create Patriots South with his free agent signings, I’ll bet that he continues that in the draft and targets a player who will be vouched for by two trusted coaches.

#24 – Panthers – Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa

The Panthers traded starter Daryl Worley to the Eagles for WR Torrey Smith so they currently have a need at the position.  Jackson led the nation in 2017 with 8 INTs, including five combined against top Big Ten foes Ohio State and Wisconsin.  He has tremendous ball skills (he also had 18 pass break ups).  Jackson is a converted receiver, hence the ball skills.  Jackson played better in run support in 2017 as a full-time starter, totaling 48 tackles.  The Panthers passing defense finished in the bottom half in yards per attempt, yards per game, interceptions and average rating so adding somebody like Jackson is a no-brainer.

#23 – Rams – Lorenzo Carter, EDGE, Georgia

(Editor’s note: The Rams traded this pick to the Patriots as part of the Brandin Cooks deal.  Cowper is upset because it likely means that whatever chance his beloved Lorenzo Carter had as a first rounder are dashed.  Cowper doubts whether the Pats will hold the pick but if they do, they may be hoping to grab a falling LT)  This pick is my biggest reach of the first round but I love Lorenzo Carter.  I introduced my readers to Carter in Week 4 when I said that he could ultimately end up with a first round grade.  He put up good numbers this year: 62 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries.  He put up even better combine numbers, running a 4.50 and broad jumping 130″ at 6’6″ and 250lbs.  That was the fastest time and longest jump for anybody 6’5″ and 240lbs or bigger.  I was pleasantly surprised to see Carter used in coverage at times down the stretch in 2017 so I don’t think he is limited just to situational pass rushing.  In time, I think he can be an every down linebacker who has exceptional length and speed.

#22 – Bills – James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State

The Bills have spent heavily on the WR position recently.  They traded for Kelvin Benjamin and used a second round pick on Zay Jones in 2017.  Going back a bit further, they used a first rounder on Sammy Watkins in 2014 and a second rounder on Robert Woods in 2013 – neither of which is still with the team.  The recent disturbing video of Zay Jones has me thinking that the Bills will need to invest another high pick on a wide receiver.  Having two first rounders makes it a bit easier to do so.  If they do, I think they should grab Washington instead of Courtland Sutton.  Sutton is a big bodied receiver who would be too similar to Benjamin.  Washington is basically a running back playing out wide.  He has good speed, excellent acceleration and is a former high school track star.  He lacks the size and strength to fight for contested balls but his quickness means he rarely has to if the quarterback can hit him in stride.  Once he has the ball in his hands, he has good vision in the open field and often breaks big plays (he averages over 20 yards per reception for his career).

#21 – Bengals – Kolton Miller, T, UCLA

The Bengals offensive line unit is largely a group of no-name guys.  Unless you’re a masochistic Bengals fan, you probably wouldn’t recognize any of the names on their depth chart, maybe aside from Cordy Glenn who was just acquired in a trade.  The Bengals allowed 40 sacks in 2017, ranking them in the bottom half; their running backs averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, ranking them third worst.  Adding Miller instantly upgrades the unit.  The NFL.com scouting report on Miller describes him as an “average athlete.”  He rejected that notion at the combine where he finished third or better among tackles in the 40 yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump, 3-cone and shuttle.  Oh, and did I mention that he came in at 6’9″ and is the tallest prospect in the class?

#20 – Lions – Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College

New Lions head coach Matt Patricia will not run a set 3-4 or 4-3 scheme, instead he will adjust based on the matchup as he did in New England.  Because of this, he will need edge rushers who can get to the quarterback regardless of their alignment.  Landry fits the bill.  He played as a 4-3 end at BC but he has the speed and quickness to rush from a stand-up position in a 3-4 (at the combine he had the fastest shuttle and second fastest 3-cone among DE/EDGE).  In true Patriot fashion, the Lions would be getting a discount on Landry because he would have been taken higher if he came out last year after a 16.5 sack junior season.  Instead, he missed time in 2017 with an ankle injury and when he was on the field he was less effective.

#19 – Cowboys – Will Hernandez, G, UTEP

The Cowboys offensive line has been a strength of the team after they spent first round picks on linemen in 2011, 2013 and 2014.  The Cowboys also took a chance on La’el Collins who was a first round talent but went undrafted due to off the field concerns.  Collins and 2014 first rounder Zack Martin are a formidable duo of guards but I still want the Cowboys, my favorite team, to add to the offensive line.  Hernandez is the best lineman on the board at this pick so I would take him even though the team has two young starting guards.  Since that 2014 pick of Martin, the Cowboys have only used two draft picks on offensive lineman (a 3rd and a 7th in 2015) so it’s time to reinvest in the position.  Similar to how the Travis Frederick pick in 2013 disappointed Cowboys fans, myself included, this pick is not sexy but it would go a long way to keeping Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliott healthy.

#18 – Seahawks – Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA

This is the third time I picked Davenport in this mock draft.  I second guessed the first two and replaced him with a different player.  When I got down here to the Seahawks I felt it was a perfect pick even with Harold Landry still on the board.  The Seahawks defense is in flux and two big name defensive linemen, Michael Bennett and Sheldon Richardson, won’t be there in 2018.  That opens the door for a prospect like Davenport to come in and be part of the new look Legion of Boom.  Davenport is a raw prospect but is very athletic for his size.  When compared to other DE/EDGE prospects at the combine, he excelled at the 40 yard dash and the broad jump while putting up respectable numbers in the vertical and bench press.  Davenport had a 55-17.5-8.5 line this season as a stand-up rusher.  What convinced me that the Seahawks would pounce on somebody like Davenport was researching their “Leo” position.  As I learned, Pete Carroll plays a modified 4-3 that features one defensive end “standing up or with his hand in the ground, and [his] sole focus is to be the primary pass rusher and wreak havoc in the backfield.”  That sure sounds like Davenport to me when you watch his highlights.  I don’t think he will be an every down player in the NFL early in his career but he will flash enough to get noticed.

#17 – Chargers – Isaiah Wynn, G/T, Georgia

Wynn is a versatile offensive lineman whose future in the NFL is likely at guard but he could see action at tackle or center as well.  He bounced between LT and LG at Georgia but is too small to start as a LT in the NFL on a regular basis.  I believe he would be a good target for the Chargers because of his versatility.  Both of the Chargers’ projected starting tackles, Russell Okung and Joe Barksdale, are 30 years old.  Okung has been placed on the IR twice in his career while Barksdale missed multiple games last year with a foot injury.  New C/G Mike Pouncey has a history of hip injuries and played a full season last year for the first time since 2012.  When you Google “Mike Pouncey injury,” one of the results trumpets the fact that the hip injury is not career-threatening.  Well, that’s encouraging.  Last year’s second round pick, G Forrest Lamp, missed his entire rookie season after an ACL tear.  What I’m driving at is that the Chargers will very likely need to juggle their offensive line this year and having somebody like Wynn who could fill a number of roles would be tremendous.  Both tackles also have smaller dead cap numbers for 2019, so maybe the Chargers can groom him, despite his smaller size, to be the team’s starting RT for 2019 and beyond.


Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
  • Film: 2018 NFL Draft Database by @CalhounLambeau, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

Top 100: RSO Rookie Rankings

Updated: July 23rd 2017

To answer the question right at the top… Yes, I still have Leonard Fournette as my 1.01.  I’m sure we’ll spill much digital ink over the coming months debating the pick but I think he will be dominant and with so much draft capital invested, the Jaguars will have to stay dedicated.

The lifeblood of every dynasty team are it’s incoming rookies, like Fournette.  The only problem is that few rookies are as well-known as Fournette and so many owners don’t have the time to devote to doing research on who the rookies are and how their landing spot impacts their RSO outlook.  Throughout the last three months, I have done the research for you and have come up with what you will see below: RSO’s top 100 rookies.

This was a fascinating exercise for me because after I started, I realized there were still a number of players even I needed to do more research on.  For example, at one point I realized I was getting the two RB Elijahs mixed up (Hood: UNC and McGuire: LA-Lafayette) despite having opposite skill sets because I had them listed consecutively on my RB ranking (for the record: even though I prefer Hood for his bigger frame and the way he always fights forward, I pushed McGuire above him because of his fit with the Jets and path to touches).  I first started making rankings for each position so I could easily compare players and develop tiers within each position.  Next, I decided how I would value positions based on my league assumptions (see below).  Then, I massaged the positional rankings together using my tiers and positional values to help determine the overall rankings.  Finally, I fine tuned throughout the draft to adjust positional and overall rankings based on team fit.  It was a time consuming exercise for sure, but one I would recommend for RSO owners, just on a smaller scale (I would suggest however many rookie picks your league has + 5).

Before we get to the rankings, a few notes:

  1. I created these rankings assuming the following starting lineup in a 10-12 team league: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, OFLEX, DL, LB, DB, DFLEX.
  2. I assumed 0.5PPR but otherwise standard scoring (i.e. a slight bump to WR and pass catching RBs).  IDP scoring can vary quite significantly in my experience but I assumed the typical key stats of tackles, sacks and INTs.
  3. If you are in a Superflex or 2QB league, I would recommend moving the QBs up about 10-15 spots.
  4. If your IDP league uses more starters (meaning more will be drafted) you should move IDP players up about 5 spots as the value of the best IDP players will increase.
  5. I ranked at least 10 QB, TE, DL, LB and DB and at least 20 RB and WR.  I figured all but the deepest of leagues would need to go deeper than that at each position.  Determining how some DE/OLB will be listed is tough at this point but when in doubt I used NFL.com’s listed position.
  6. As you go down the list, the amount of research done on a given player admittedly decreases, so to do the strong opinions.  I feel much more strongly about Mixon over Cook than I do about Clement over Pumphrey.
  7. Keep in mind that these rankings are being finalized on Saturday, April 29.  Much can, and will, change before you draft.

Rank First Name Last Name Position Pos Rank
1 Leonard Fournette RB RB1
2 Corey Davis WR WR1
3 Christian McCaffrey RB RB2
4 Joe Mixon RB RB3
5 Mike Williams WR WR2
6 John Ross WR WR3
7 OJ Howard TE TE1
8 Chris Godwin WR WR4
9 Dalvin Cook RB RB4
10 Zay Jones WR WR5
11 Kareem Hunt RB RB5
12 David Njoku TE TE2
13 Marlon Mack RB RB6
14 Curtis Samuel RB RB7
15 D’onta Foreman RB RB8
16 Taywan Taylor WR WR6
17 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR WR7
18 Evan Engram TE TE3
19 Carlos Henderson WR WR8
20 Cooper Kupp WR WR9
21 Jeremy McNichols RB RB9
22 Samaje Perine RB RB10
23 Mitch Trubisky QB QB1
24 Myles Garrett DL DL1
25 Wayne Gallman RB RB11
26 Pat Mahomes QB QB2
27 Jake Butt TE TE4
28 Alvin Kamara RB RB12
29 Solomon Thomas DL DL2
30 KD Cannon WR WR10
31 Malik Hooker DB DB1
32 Deshaun Watson QB QB3
33 Zach Cunningham LB LB1
34 Josh Malone WR WR11
35 Taco Charlton DL DL3
36 Jonathan Allen DL DL4
37 Jonnu Smith TE TE5
38 Haason Reddick LB LB2
39 Jamal Adams DB DB2
40 Jabrill Peppers DB DB3
41 Josh Reynolds WR WR12
42 Amara Darboh WR WR13
43 Jamaal Williams RB RB13
44 James Conner RB RB14
45 Josh Dobbs QB QB4
46 Tim Williams LB LB3
47 Takkarist McKinley DL DL5
48 Malachi Dupre WR WR14
49 Reuben Foster LB LB4
50 Ardarius Stewart WR WR15
51 Charles Harris DL DL6
52 Deshone Kizer QB QB5
53 Nate Peterman QB QB6
54 Joe Williams RB RB15
55 Elijah McGuire RB RB16
56 TJ Watt LB LB5
57 Marshon Lattimore DB DB4
58 Raekwon McMillan LB LB6
59 Gerald Everett TE TE6
60 Derek Rivers DL DL7
61 Isaiah Ford WR WR16
62 Bucky Hodges TE TE7
63 Chad Hansen WR WR17
64 Obi Melifonwu DB DB5
65 Elijah Hood RB RB17
66 Derek Barnett DL DL8
67 Jarrad Davis LB LB7
68 Brad Kaaya QB QB7
69 Brian Hill RB RB18
70 Davis Webb QB QB8
71 Ryan Anderson LB LB8
72 Tyus Bowser LB LB9
73 Marlon Humphrey DB DB6
74 Adam Shaheen TE TE8
75 Jalen Robinette WR WR18
76 Donnel Pumphrey RB RB19
77 Jordan Leggett TE TE9
78 Corey Clement RB RB20
79 Duke Riley LB LB10
80 Dede Westbrook WR WR19
81 Seth Russell QB QB9
82 Aaron Jones RB RB21
83 C.J. Beathard QB QB10
84 Malik McDowell DL DL9
85 Budda Baker DB DB7
86 Carl Lawson DL DL10
87 Marcus Maye DB DB8
88 Jeremy Sprinkle TE TE10
89 Adoree’ Jackson DB DB9
90 Kevin King DB DB10
91 Gareon Conley DB DB11
92 Mack Hollins WR WR20
93 Tarik Cohen RB RB22
94 Chad Williams WR WR21
95 Jordan Willis DL DL11
96 Chad Kelly QB QB11
97 Amba Etta-Tawo WR WR22
98 Chidobee Awuzie DB DB12
99 Kenny Galloday WR WR23
100 George Kittle TE TE11

 

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

1st Round NFL Draft Trades

Updated: July 23rd 2017

Another NFL draft began with a boom in 2017. We only waited until the 2nd pick of the night for a trade.  But who came up ahead and which teams were the proverbial babies having their candy taken away. I look at some of the trades occurring in the 1st round this year, analyzing the value and implications for each team involved.

My trade values in parentheses below were taken from Kevin Meers study on NFL draft pick values.  The value chart is a modification from the standard NFL Draft Trade Chart (NDFT) utilized by many NFL teams.  There are many different analytical studies on the value of draft picks but most agree that the NDFT tends to significantly overvalue early picks and undervalues mid to late-round picks.  The reliance on the NDFT leads to big overpays for many teams trading up in the draft.

Another issue that comes up when examining trades is how to value future picks. There are two primary problems which present themselves.  First, we do not know where a team will finish in the standings next season.  Second, the value of draft picks (like most things) tends to diminish over time.  The 18th pick in 2017 is generally worth more than the 18th pick in 2018 for example.  To address these issues, I estimated next year’s finish and discounted the pick value by 20% (a somewhat heavy discount).  Now, on to the trades.

San Francisco gives #2 (435.7)

Chicago gives #3 (401.3), 67 (125.8), 111 (87.4), and 2018 3rd (94.4)

There is no other way to put it. Chicago took a pounding on this deal.  The Bears have massive question marks all over the roster including secondary, wide receivers, and tight end.  They simply could not afford to give up this amount of picks, particularly in a draft considered very deep by most analysts, for a quarterback with the amount of question marks associated with Trubisky.  The new Bears signal-caller must become a top-ten quarterback for this trade to work out.

New San Francisco General Manager John Lynch, on the other hand, absolutely nailed his first trade. They crushed the value side (708.9 to 435.7).  The 49ers move down one spot, get the player they were going to take at two, while also accumulating valuable picks on a team needing talent across the roster.  Great trade for San Francisco.

Buffalo gives #10 (299.1)

Kansas City gives #27 (214.7), 91 (102.7), and 2018 1st (182.7)

This was one of the more bizarre moves of the night. Kansas City is one of the more solid teams across the board, but has some big depth issues, particularly on defense.  The Chiefs could have used playmakers on a true contender which has won 23 games over the last two seasons.  Mahomes has major mechanical and decision-making issues plus will need to learn the basics of NFL QB play coming from Texas Tech. There are certainly extraordinary physical gifts, but trading up (at a big cost) for a long-term developmental quarterback is a bit of a head-scratcher.

Buffalo demonstrated that they understood the many holes on their team. The Bills addressed a big need with cornerback Tre’Davious White at the end of the first round, while accumulating more picks for a new coaching staff, and handily won the value game big-time here (a continuing storyline for teams trading down).

Cleveland gives #12 (283.6)

Houston gives #25 (221.3) and 2018 1st (207.4)

This trade was a direct development of the previous two trades for quarterbacks. Houston, without any clear plan at quarterback, panicked after two QBs went early in the draft.  This is what happens when a team has most of the pieces to compete except for the all-important quarterback.  The Texans are hoping for a Dak Prescott-type performance from DeShaun Watson but the odds are against rookie quarterbacks succeeding in the first season.

For Cleveland, this is simply what the new management team does. The Browns trade down for great value and collect future high-end picks.  After taking Miles Garrett at number 1, Cleveland adds one of the more intriguing prospects, safety Jabrill Peppers, at 25.  Peppers is a tremendous athlete who can play a variety of positions at the NFL level.  Cleveland has time to develop and mold the former Wolverine into a true weapon.

Seattle gives #31 (203)

San Francisco gives #34 (170.3) and 111 (87.4)

John Lynch made day 1 of the NFL draft look easy. San Francisco pounced on the hammer-hitting linebacker, Rueben Foster, when he fell down the draft due to character concerns and a diluted drug sample at the NFL combine.   Lynch revealed Foster was a top-3 player on the 49ers draft board.  This is a perfect example of when trading up works.  San Francisco takes a moderate risk and gives up a little draft value for a high-upside player who could easily make up the value difference and a lot more.

The move also makes a lot of sense for the Seahawks continuing their strategy of accumulating mid-round picks for small drops in draft position. Seattle has massive holes on the offensive line and somewhat surprising, only one offensive lineman was off the board when the trade occurred.  Seattle moves back and is guaranteed one the top-4 offensive lineman on their board if that is the direction they choose.


Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

NFL Mock Draft: Picks 17-33+

Updated: July 16th 2017

We’re now less than a month away from the NFL Draft and hopefully you’re well into your rookie research.  I think doing a full 32 pick mock draft is a good, albeit time consuming, exercise for dynasty owners because it can help you identify the landing spots for the best offensive talent.  Hopefully, that offensive talent will feature prominently on your 2017 RSO team.  Below you will find the second half of the first round – to start at the top, click here (INSERT LINK)

#17 – Redskins – Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State

The Redskins had signed six defensive players in free agency by the time I wrote this piece so I don’t foresee them drafting defense in the first round.  I also don’t see them going for a WR because they have a fair amount invested in new signing Terrelle Pryor and 2016 first rounder Josh Doctson.  John Ross would be a good replacement for the departed Desean Jackson but I feel they’ll compare their WR and RB depth and go for Cook.  Cook did not perform well at the combine but his tape is spectacular, he could end up being a steal here if the tape doesn’t lie.

#18 – Titans – John Ross, WR, Washington

Ross comes with myriad injury concerns (both knees, shoulder) and they do worry me.  If it weren’t for them, his 40-yard dash at the combine alone would be enough to push him 6-8 spots higher in this draft.  Ross is a burner who would pair well with Tajae Sharp, Rishard Mathews and Delanie Walker to create a solid but under-the-radar receiving corps.

#19 – Buccaneers – David Njoku, TE, Miami

This was a surprise pick even to me, having Njoku go before OJ Howard, but I couldn’t talk myself out of it after I put pen to paper while doing my research.  The Bucs had Njoku in for a private workout and must have immediately realized the potential of having Njoku alongside Mike Evans in the red zone.  Howard is bigger and faster than Njoku, but Njoku can jump far higher (7.5″ higher vertical).  Njoku is young (just 20 years old, about 18 months younger than Howard) and started playing football later than most so he has room to grow, literally and figuratively.  Plus he grew up about 5 miles from where I live so maybe this is partly a “homer” pick.

#20 – Broncos – Garrett Boles, OT, Utah

The Broncos suffered a sack on 6.6% of drop backs which was the 8th worst in 2016.  Then they lost Russell Okung to the Chargers in free agency so they need a long term replacement.  I’m not sure that Boles ultimately is that franchise cornerstone LT, but at the least he will provide depth to a position of need.

#21 – Lions – Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee

Ezekiel Ansah is the freakiest of athletes but he needs help so offenses cannot constantly double team and chip him.  In 2016 the Lions only had 26 sacks, second worst, and only 2 of those came from Ansah.  Barnett was a three year starter for the Vols who had at least 56 tackles and 9 sacks.  He would help put a pass rushing threat opposite Ansah so offenses couldn’t key on him so much.  The Lions have addressed their defensive line in the past two years, taking 3 DTs, so they may feel that taking another lineman is overkill but they definitely need it.

#22 – Dolphins – Haason Reddick, OLB, Temple

I really struggled to identify the biggest need for Miami.  Ultimately, I decided to go BPA for them and that was Reddick for me.  Reddick really upped his draft stock with an impressive 2016 totaling 65 tackles, 22.5 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery and 1 INT.  He’s a stat sheet stuffer.  He did well at the combine, running the fastest 40-yard dash for a DE/OLB and was in the Top 12 for the other drills.

#23 – Giants – OJ Howard, TE, Alabama

As I mentioned above, I was surprised to have Howard fall this far after reading so much about him when doing my research.  I think the Giants would feel the same if they find him here at #23.  He is an amazing athlete for his size, no doubt.  He is 6’6 and 251lb and ran the second fastest 40-yard dash for a TE (4.51) and ran the best times in the 3 cone and shuttle.  My concern with Howard is that he is riding the wave from two massive performances on the national stage against Clemson in 2015 and 2016.  More than 18% of his career receiving yards came in those two games against Clemson.  What was even more surprising is that he only has 7 career TDs and 3 of those came against Clemson.  Don’t assume he must be a redshirt sophomore coming out early and just doesn’t have many games under his belt; he was a four year player who played in 46 career games.  When 2 of your 46 career games account for so much of your production, I have my eyebrows raised.  Those brief flashes of brilliance make Howard a 1st round pick at a position largely devoid of stars but I’m not going to be the guy reaching for him in my rookie draft.

#24 – Raiders – Joe Mixon, RB, Oklahoma

There is a non-zero chance that Joe Mixon goes completely undrafted due to his off the field issues.  Even though NFL teams have black balled other violent offenders, I think they will be enticed by Mixon’s combination of size, speed and pass catching ability and give him a chance any way.  The Raiders are courting Marshawn Lynch currently, but if that falls through expect them to grab Mixon here to replace Latavius Murray.  Despite splitting touches with Samaje Perrine, Mixon still amassed over 1,800 total yards and 15 TDs last season.

#25 – Texans – Jabril Peppers, LB/CB/S, Michigan

The Texans lost 168 tackles, 4.5 sacks and 7 INTs this offseason when LB John Simon, CB AJ Bouye and S Quintin Demps departed.  What better way to replace all of that production than with a versatile and dynamic player like Peppers?  None of Peppers counting stats jump out (just 3 sacks and 1 INT, all coming in 2016) but there’s no denying how athletic he is.  When he first landed in Ann Arbor in 2014 he started at CB but lost most of the season to injury, in 2015 he moved to safety and in 2016 he mostly played LB (oh, and RB, KR and PR).  He does not have a defined role which could be a problem for some coaches but I believe Bill O’Brien, of the Bill Belichick coaching tree, would find ways to make use of him.  The Texans were fourth worst in yards per kick return last year, so Peppers could help there immediately.

#26 – Seahawks – Kevin King, CB, Washington

The Seahawks love tall CBs.  Seven of the eight currently on their roster are 6 foot or taller.  The tallest of the bunch is Richard Sherman and as you’ve heard he is on the trading block.  Sherman is 6’3″ and 195lb meanwhile, King is 6’3″ and 200lb – a near perfect match.  Seattle should try to trade Sherman before the draft because once they take King, it will be obvious to the rest of the NFL that they have no intention of holding Sherman and will lose some of their leverage.

#27 – Chiefs – Pat Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech

When researching the Chiefs, I found one writer on Draftek.com who went back and looked at decades of their draft history.  He found that the Chiefs have not taken a first round QB since 1983.  They haven’t even taken one in the second round since 1992.  I think the time has come in 2017.  I believe Pat Mahomes is the best combination of talent, potential and value in this draft class.  His mechanics need work, he rarely throws with his feet set, but his arm strength and awareness are evident when you watch his film.  If needed to start tomorrow, Trubisky and Watson would be better choices, but the Chiefs still have Alex Smith.  Smith is a good-enough QB who can give Mahomes the time he needs to improve and mature.

#28 – Cowboys – Forrest Lamp, OG, Western Kentucky

The Cowboys should go the same route they did in 2013, when they took C Travis Frederick, and make a surprise pick by taking the highest rated interior lineman.  The Cowboys definitely need DL help too but I think they will forego that need for now.  Lamp was a tackle predominantly in college but projects more as a guard in the pros.  The Cowboys invested heavily in their OL from 2011-2014 using three of their four first rounders on linemen.  With a young backfield of Zeke Elliott and Dak Prescott to protect, there’s no reason to stop now.

#29 – Packers – Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State

Ladarius Gunter was embarrassed by opposing offenses on multiple occasions last year so the team signed Davon House to try and stanch the bleeding.  House isn’t enough to vastly improve a passing defense that was in the bottom ten in most categories and was worst in passing yards per attempt.  Conley had 4 INTs last year and 8 passes defended which will definitely help.

#30 – Steelers – Zach Cunningham, OLB, Vanderbilt

The Steelers have lost LBs Lawrence Timmons and Jarvis Jones to free agency.  I was between Cunningham, Tak McKinley and Charles Harris for this pick.  I chose Cunningham because of his combine performance in the vertical and broad jumps which show his burst and lower body strength (even though they they beat him in the speed drills).  Cunningham is not a real threat to sack the QB (zero sacks in 2016), likely because of that lack of elite speed, but neither was Jarvis Jones (1 sack in 2016).  For me it’s all about Cunningham being a volume tackler (125, 10th most in the NCAA in 2016).

#31 – Falcons – TJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin

You can’t go wrong with a Watt, right?  Watt is the best combination of strength and speed in the pass rushers remaining at this point and will immediately help what was a bad defense in 2016.  Watt ran a better 3 cone and shuttle drill than highly touted athletes Dalvin Cook and Curtis Samuel.  In the Falcons 4-3 system, Watt will probably slot in at DE rather than OLB but he likely has the ability to play anywhere in the front seven if needed.  My only concern on Watt is the sample size.  He played minimally in 8 games as a sophomore in 2015 (just 7 tackles, 0 sacks) so all of the hype is based off his 63 tackle, 11.5 sack junior season and his combine performance.  At this point there are other pass rushers with a longer track record (McKinley, Harris) but Watt gets the nod because of the bloodline.

#32 – Saints – Obi Melinfonwu, S, UConn

Melinfonwu would be a luxury pick for the Saints here at #32.  I’m not sure they need him but if he doesn’t go in the first round, he’s somebody teams will target with a trade at the top of the second.  Melinfonwu has moved up draft boards after a stellar performance at the combine.  He ran the fastest 40-yard dash among safeties (4.40).  He had the highest vertical jump (44″).  He had the longest broad jump (141″, best by a huge 9″ gap).  If he ran the 3 cone and shuttle drills, I bet he would have dominated those too.  Not only is he a great athlete but he is a tackling machine (118 tackles in 2016, 18th best and one of the few safeties on the list) who also had 8 career INTs.  Not a bad addition to a passing defense that was third worst per attempt last year.

#33 and beyond

These are the players whom I believe teams will be targeting at the top of the second round.  With the break between the first and second rounds, it gives teams time to re-evaluate their board and see what highly rated players fell to a point that they just need to snap them up.  Based on projected rookie contracts by Sportrac.com, the difference in total contract value for the #32 and #33 picks is about $1.6mil.  For comparison, that’s about the same difference as the value between #24 and #32.  So, there is real value at the top of the second.  There’s an RSO lesson here too… If you do your homework and have your own “Big Board” you can package picks together to move up to 2.01 and grab a first round talent at a steep discount.

  • Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State – I really wanted to find a spot for McDowell but didn’t.  He’s a huge space eater (6’6″, 295lb).  He isn’t much of a pass rushing threat but who needs to be when you’re that big.
  • Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama – Robinson is the best of the rest of the poor OT class.  I originally figured he would go in the first before I started but the value on many of the defensive players was just much better.
  • DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre DameI am not a fan of Kizer but others are.  I believe he lacks awareness and good decision making on the field.  However, he is big and fast and somebody is bound to fall in love and try to grab him and hope they can fix him.
  • Evan Engram, TE, Ole Miss – Engram is the fastest of a fast group of rookie TEs but he is also the smallest.  He is “just” 6’3″ and 234lb.  I would not be surprised to see him play more on the outside and essentially transition to WR similar to how Devin Funchess did when Michigan realized he didn’t really have the size to be a pro TE (Engram is bigger though so it’s probably not going to be an official change).  Size wise, he is about the same as Jordan Reed but Engram ran a much quicker 40-yard dash (4.42 vs 4.72).  If you told a coach he could have a faster Jordan Reed without the long injury history they would jump at that.
  • Nate Peterman, QB, Pitt – Mel Kiper believes that the Texans might be interested in Peterman.  He’s brought it up on the First Draft podcast and worked it into his most recent mock draft.  I’m thinking there may be something he’s been told by a team official but he can’t just admit that.  No way should they take him in the first, but I think they could make a move up to pick #40 or so and grab him then.  With Romo retiring and Osweiler shipped to Cleveland, the Texans are left with Tom Savage.  As a Rutgers season ticket holder, I have first hand experience of what happens when you rely on Tom Savage.

**Note: When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch.  I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability.  If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents.  Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com
  • Film: draftbreakdown.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, ESPN’s First Draft podcast, draftek.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

NFL Mock Draft: Picks 1-16

Updated: July 16th 2017

We’re now less than a month away from the NFL Draft and hopefully you’re well into your rookie research.  I think doing a full 32 pick mock draft is a good, albeit time consuming, exercise for dynasty owners because it can help you identify the landing spots for the best offensive talent.  Hopefully, that offensive talent will feature prominently on your 2017 RSO team.  I have included the first sixteen picks below, check back next week for the rest of the first round.

#1 – Browns – Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M

Garrett is the consensus first overall pick and will be an instant impact on the Browns defense.  He was a starter for three years at A&M and produced each season (31 sacks, 47 tackles for loss).  His closest combine comparison over the last few years would be the Vikings Everson Griffen who started out slow his first three seasons but is now coming off back-to-back Pro Bowl seasons.

#2 – 49ers – Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford

Thomas is a versatile DE who showed out in the Sun Bowl against Mitch Trubisky’s Tar Heels (7 tackles, 2 tackles for loss and 1 very important late sack).  He can move inside when needed and will give flexibility to a team that finished 2016 in the bottom half of sacks.

#3 – Bears – Jonathan Allen, DT, Alabama

The Bears have other needs but will go Best Player Available (BPA) here and go for offense later.  Like Thomas, Allen is versatile and can get to the quarterback from either his interior DT position or from the end.  He had 22.5 sacks over the last two seasons.

#4 – Jaguars – Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State

The Jags signed Barry Church and Tashaun Gipson but neither is the long term answer, more like a stop gap.  Jacksonville was dead last in 2016 with just 7 INTs, meanwhile, Hooker had 7 himself with the Buckeyes last season.  He is coming off injury so he won’t immediately take over but should be firmly entrenched come midseason.

#5 – Titans – Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State

CB Jason McCourty is a UFA in 2018 so I expect the Titans to draft his replacement at #5.  They can take that luxury pick because they have the #18 where they can go for an offensive weapon for Marcus Mariota.  Lattimore is young, he’s only a redshirt sophomore, and only had 16 career games at Ohio State.  He would benefit from that time behind McCourty if they don’t push him into the lineup beside him right away.

#6 – Jets – Jamal Adams, S, LSU

I don’t believe any of this year’s QBs are worth the #6 pick so the Jets should go BPA and take Adams.  His stock has fallen slightly recently so he might still be available here rather than going in the Top 5 as was previously thought.  Many mocks have Fournette going here but with the serviceable duo of Matt Forte and Bilal Powell I don’t think they would invest this heavily at RB.

#7 – Chargers – Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama

I’m sure the Chargers would prefer safeties Hooker or Adams but they will likely miss out.  Instead, they will have to settle for the next best CB to help their secondary.  This feels like a great spot for a team to trade up and grab the first QB (I think the Panthers, Bengals and Bills are pretty solid with who they want and who will be available so don’t think those three would trade back) or for somebody to grab Fournette before the Panthers do.

#8 – Panthers – Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

Fournette won’t come into the NFL as much of a sure-thing as Zeke Elliott was last year, but he’s pretty close.  Dynasty players have been planning for Fournette for two years now.  The Panthers did just extend Jonathan Stewart’s contract but Ron Rivera has a history of using multiple RBs (i.e. Stewart, DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert) so I don’t think that precludes them from taking Fournette.  I could foresee two seasons of a Fournette-Stewart combo that helps Cam stop taking so many hits on short-yardage plays and extend his career.

#9 – Bengals – Reuben Foster, ILB, Alabama

The Bengals lost Karlos Dansby in free agency, signed Kevin Minter to replace him and still have Vincent Rey on the roster.  Foster totaled 115 tackles and 5 sacks in 2016, including 12 tackles and a sack in the championship game against Clemson.  Foster will instantly be the best ILB on the roster so this is a no-brainer.

#10 – Bills – Mike Williams, WR, Clemson

Personally, I have Williams ranked below Corey Davis but I’m not sure if most NFL teams would agree.  Now that he got his new contract, Tyrod Taylor will need some help; the Bills lost Robert Woods this offseason and Sammy Watkins is unreliable due to injury.  I also would not be surprised to see the Bills go for OJ Howard or David Njoku here and be the first team to start the run on TE.  Williams injury history (he missed all of 2015 with a neck injury) does worry me but he did return just fine in 2016.  He has a big frame that helps him catch off target passes which is good when you have an average quarterback.

#11 – Saints – Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan

Charlton is the biggest DE in the Top 100 or so prospects and had more tackles and sacks than Myles Garrett last year.  If Charlton’s 40-yard dash wasn’t so bad (4.92) he could have snuck further up the draft board.  The Saints were 28th in sacks last season and Charlton will help get pressure on the QB.  And, just think of the marketing possibilities with a guy named Taco.

#12 – Browns – Mitch Trubisky, QB, UNC

If the Browns only had one pick in the first round, I don’t think they would use it on Trubisky.  However, to leave the first round with Garrett AND Trubisky is huge – that could set up the franchise for a decade to come if both hit.  Trubisky is a hometown guy (from Mentor, only about 30 min outside of Cleveland) and seems to be the consensus best QB in this class.  I don’t think Trubisky is good enough to start from Day One since he is so inexperienced but maybe since he doesn’t go #1 overall the Browns can be more patient.

#13 – Cardinals – Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

We all know that the QBs will be drafted higher than their value warrants and I think this is the most “reach” of a pick thus far.  I don’t like Watson but he does have a championship pedigree and seems to have good leadership skills.  He won’t need to start at all in 2017, barring an injury to Carson Palmer, and that should help his long term prospects.

#14 – Eagles – Christian McCaffery, RB, Stanford

Matt Waldman has compared Christian McCaffery to Brian Westbrook.  Eagles head coach Doug Pederson played with Westbrook on the Eagles in 1999 and was on the coaching staff at the back end of Westbrook’s career there so you’d assume there is some synergy there.  I still believe McCaffery is a better football player than a RB but given the lackluster options ahead of him on the depth chart (Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles, Wendell Smallwood), McCaffery could see significant time right away if taken by Philly.  McCaffery had a staggering 6,000+ all-purpose yards combined in 2015 and 2016.

#15 – Colts – Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin

This OT draft class is historically bad as we have investigated.  In most years, Ramczyk would be the 3rd or 4th best tackle but this year he is probably the best despite being injured.  I would hope that by now the Colts brass are tired of Andrew Luck missing games due to injury or playing hurt and are willing to invest some draft capital to fix that problem.  Unfortunately this is not a more talent rich class at the position but that doesn’t mean they can just ignore the need.

#16 – Ravens – Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan

Steve Smith has retired (presumably), leaving Mike Wallace (who was the team’s leading WR in 2016) and injury prone Breshad Perriman at the top of the depth chart.  Wallace is already 30 and is just not very good so to rely on him in 2017 is likely a mistake.  Enter Corey Davis who is a great route runner with a good combination of size and speed.  Davis is #1 on the all-time NCAA receiving yards list and is #2 in TDs and #4 in receptions.  Davis doubled, or nearly doubled, Mike Williams in most counting stats.  It shouldn’t be surprising that Davis’ numbers are better given that Williams missed 2015 but to see the stats doubled is surprising (Davis played 50 career games, Williams played 38).  He’s good and he’s the guy I’m targeting at the top of my RSO rookie drafts.

To be continued…

**Note: When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch.  I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability.  If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents.  Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com
  • Film: draftbreakdown.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, ESPN’s First Draft podcast, draftek.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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