IDP Start/Sit: Week 9

Updated: November 3rd 2022

Here we are going into week 9 after the trade deadline and with some players on new team, let’s take a look at some of those streamers or players who could be joining your team this week! Additionally, week 8 was a doozy for last week’s start/sit with players being too hurt to play, others as a healthy scratch, and even an ejection!

WEEK 8 RECAP
DL:
Start: Kayvon Thibodeaux (1 QB Hit. Saw lots of snaps, just didn’t produce)
Start: Rasheem Green (1 solo, Titans only had 14 drop backs all game!)

Sit: Chandler Jones (1 solo)


LB:

Start: Quay Walker (4 solos, 1 assist, FF. On 15 snaps! If not for the ejection, this was looking like a top 10 week, but at least he didn’t kill your week)

Start: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Inactive Monday Night)

Sit: Tae Crowder (2 solos, 34% of snaps. Jaylon Smith looks like the new LB1 for NYG)

 

DB:
Start: Adrian Amos (4 solos, 1 assist. Had 3 more solos negated due to penalties. A borderline performance)

Start: Eric Rowe (Healthy scratch! Big miss and stay away for the rest of the season!)

Sit: Kyle Dugger (Ankle injury ended up keeping him out of the game)

 

START: Travon Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars, DL28

Travon Walker has been playing an elite level of snaps for a DL position, 58 snaps / game. He has posted solid tackle floor numbers this year as well with 4+ tackles in 6 of 8 weeks. His pass rush pressure rate is not ideal at just above 6%, but this week he has a favorable matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders who have allowed a 26% pass rush pressure rate and a 13% sack conversion rate. He has also made a couple of plays and not looked lost when in coverage, which does give him some additional big play upside (he already has 1 INT and 2 PDs as well). Walker may not be delivering FULL number one overall numbers quite yet in the NFL, but he has enough to be a DL2 this week for our IDP lineups.

START: Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL24

Gregory Rousseau has looked good on this Bills top defense and he has a strong defensive PFF and pass rush grade (81.9 and 83.6 respectively). The biggest problem (for IDP) is that Gregory does not get ideal snap count numbers to support overall IDP production. He is seeing just under 35 snaps / game which is good, but not where we’d like to see it. However, with the limited work, we have still seen 5 sacks already, consistent pressures, and the ability to make other plays too (2 PDs this season and an INT on self deflected pass last year). This ability with a favorable matchup against the New York Jets who have allowed a high 26% pressure rate, but a lower 10% sack conversion rate. Rousseau has the ability to take advantage of the pressures allowed and convert them into a sack (or two?) this week.

SIT: Rasheem Green, Houston Texans, DL29

Rasheem Green was a start for us last week and the process still seems sounds for him. He is still a viable place in most other weeks, however, his matchup this week against the Philadelphia Eagles is one of the worst matchups for any defensive lineman as the Eagles have one of the strongest overall offensive lines. They have the lowest pressure rate allowed in the league at 19% and 3rd best sack conversion rate at 8%. Green is someone to keep on your bench but look to another possible start for this week.

START: Nicholas Morrow, Chicago Bears, LB31

Mr. Morrow is in a situation where he was already seeing 100% snaps but was doing that with a very talented producer in Roquan Smith. With Roquan Smith moving on to the Baltimore Ravens Morrow is the guy in the middle of the defense and they should still be taking plenty of snaps as one of the lower tier defense this year. 82 tackles and 3 sacks made by Smith are now available for the rest of that Bears defense. Now, realistically, Morrow will not absorb most of the this, but even a significant portion will move Morrow up into the a consistent LB2 range week-to-week. If Morrow is not available, Jack Sanborn is a deeper look.

START: David Long Jr., Tennessee Titans, LB20

David Long Jr. continues to be the linebacker you want from the Titans as he delivers top-tier numbers week in and week out. Of the 7 games he’s played this year, he’s had at least 8 tackles in 5 of them. He’s also contributed 2 INTs and 4 PDs. He has no serious competition for snaps and with this level of production, he should be a top 15 LB or better moving forward. This level of production combined with his high quality of play (his PFF defensive grade of 74.7 is 13th among LBs) bodes well for his chances of getting a new deal from the Titans, which makes him a more stable asset in dynasty leagues. No matter what format you play, though, he’s a top option.

SIT: Isaiah Simmons, Arizona Cardinals, LB35

Isaiah Simmons went from playing over 90% of the snap last season to being sub-70% snap count this season. This kind of usage for a player that is designated as an LB but plays a large amount of slot corner (47% of total snaps) is less than ideal. Pair that with limited IDP production of just over 4 tackles / game. He has found ways to make some splash plays at least to make him relevant in some weeks with 1 INT (returned for TD), 1 sack, 2 FFs, and a FR. Isaiah has looked suspect in run defense at best but has shown some capability in pass coverage, this does not bode well for his usage as a LB. His boom weeks are only going to be something you can get by playing him week in and and week out, which means you will experience the down weeks too. Sad to think about a top 20 NFL draft pick be so under-utilized, but this might just be the Isaiah Simmons experience going forward.

 

START: Andre Cisco, Jacksonville Jaguars, DB45

Andre Cisco has come into his 2nd year and delivered some strong performance so far this year. He is playing 99% of the snaps so far this season and he is doing this primarily from a deep safety role, which tends to have less consistency but some find a way to be very relevant for IDP. So far this year, Cisco has been able to be a viable starter. His production of 4.75 tackles / game and 2 INTs on the year have given him a baseline that keeps him from killing you weekly. This week he has a matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders, they are top half of the league in intermediate and deep throws and Carr and Carr is top 10 in turnover worthy plays on those deep throws and with Cisco playing primarily deep, this is a matchup that should have some big-play upside for Cisco and a nice floor to balance it out.

START: Xavier Woods, Carolina Panthers, DB41

Xavier Woods had the distinction of being one of the very few defenders to have played 100% of all their snaps last season (1,208 total) and so far this year, he has played a strong 99% of the snaps this season. Xavier has played a strong number of snaps in the “IDP Sweet Spot” with a 51% total there. His production hasn’t matched the injured Jeremy Chinn’s production in years past while Chinn has been injured, but the process is sound and with a matchup against the Bengals this week who have feed Mixon the ball but have struggled to produce bigger plays with him, those in the sweet spot should be able to capitalize on this matchup this week and Woods should be one of those benefiting.

SIT: Jessie Bates III, Cincinnati Bengals, DB26

On the flip side of that IDP matchup, we have Jessie Bates III. Bates has been an IDP stalwart since coming into the league in 2018 and he has averaged 6.5 tackles per / game over that 4-year span, which is quite impressive in it’s right for any safety, but paired with the fact that he has consistently played as a deep safety, even better! However, this season he is averaging 4.5 tackles / game, a full two less per game! Panthers offense has looked revitalized (somehow?) ever since moving on from CMC and Matt Rhule, but the Falcons are not exactly a tough matchup and I am willing to give them one game due to the shakeup against the Bucs. However, there is a reason the QBs leading this team have not been highly sought after by others. Halloween has past and the Panthers offense will turn back into the pumpkin again. With a lower tier of production overall this year, the matchup against Carolina, it is time to find a different option for that DB2/3 role in your lineup.

More Analysis by Jake

IDP Start/Sit: Week 7

Updated: October 19th 2022

Week 7 is upon us and a lot of our season are shaping up to feeling great, trying to find a few more wins, or… hopefully for none of you, starting to think about next year. Regardless of how your doing, I hope you keep coming back and paying attention to the players and the process, this is kind of effort helps you better prepare for the next season at a minimum. Week 6 was rough for me, hopefully it was kinder to you and I right this ship for week 7. So let’s get to it!

DL:
Start: Odafe Oweh (2 solos)


Sit: Von Miller (2 sacks! 4 solos, TFLS, 2 QB hits) – He played his highest snap total this year! Maybe he is going to be a high end play going forward? Or Buffalo is saving him for bigger passing matchups?


LB:

Start: Alex Singleton (19 solos, 2 assists, 2 TFLs, 1 QB hit, PD)

Sit: Zaven Collins (2 sacks! 5 solos, 4 assists, 2 TFLs, 2 QB Hits, 1 PD)

 

DB:
Start: Chuck Clark (6 solos, FR)

Sit: Jalen Ramsey (3 solos, 2 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 QB hit) – His day maybe “saved” with the sack, but the process seemed sound for this one

 

START: Dorance Armstrong, Dallas Cowboys, DL40

  • Snaps are solid, but not perfect. 214 total snaps. 600+ snap pace
  • Very effective with limited snaps, 12.8% pressure rate.
  • 68 pff pass rush grade on the season. Converting 17 pressures into 5 sacks
  • Limited tackle floor so playing for upside (does have a blocked punt too)
  • Very positive matchups not just this week against Detroit, but next week in Chicago as well

SIT: Emmanuel Ogbah, Miami Dolphins, DL23

  • Solid snaps, 259 total. 700+ snap pace.
  • Limited production creating pressure, 6.9% pressure rate this year
  • Converted only one pressure into a sack, limited tackle floor or big play upside
  • Pittsburgh matchup is slightly negative matchup for Miami overall

START: Nicholas Morrow, Chicago Bears, LB34

  • Perfect utilization, 100% snaps on the season, 397 total, 1,100+ pace
  • Targeted 3+ times each game, nice starter for tackles
  • Patriots 6th most rushing attempts this year, great tackles opportunities
  • Bears allowing 63 plays per game, a step up for Patriots average of 59 for increased opportunities

SIT: Cody Barton, Seattle Seahawks, LB23

  • Snap count has continually dropped over the last three weeks, (62%, 77%, 39%!!)
  • His defensive PFF grades have gone up in the reduced role, looks more effective for an NFL defense on reduced utilization
  • Already has limited upside with only 15 pass rush snaps
  • LAC should be a high snap count game for Seattle, but the limited utilization is not safe at all without an injury

START: DeShon Elliott, Detroit Lions, DB28

  • Detroit’s defense is playing the 6th most snaps this year on a per game basis
  • Playing near the perfect snap count, 100% most games this year
  • With injuries in the Detroit secondary, the last 2 weeks have seen Elliott’s snap alignment shift to a near 50% split into the box
  • 10 solo tackles in each of those last 2 weeks
  • Dallas with Dak back should present plenty of defensive opportunities this week

SIT: Justin Simmons, Denver Broncos, DB25

  • Coming off injury had a nice tackle game (6 total) w/ a PD
  • Produced solid tackles but with a 93 snap game, 6.4% tackle efficiency. Low for a DB
  • 18 and 21 passing attempts for the Jets the last two games. Efficient running the ball. Matchup figures to be neutral most of the game
  • Looked solid off his injury, but 100% snap rate is ideal but still a heavy alignment (60% deep safety)
More Analysis by Jake