IDP Start/Sit: Week 17

Updated: December 28th 2023

 

This is it. Championship week. Or third-place game. Or consolation bracket time. It doesn’t matter! You’re here and you are excited to chop it up on IDP thoughts and lineups, so you are doing it right! Let’s dive into Week 17!

Week 16 Recap

DL:

Start: Jonathan Allen (2 solos, 2 assists, 3 QB hits) 👎 – So close to getting home for the sack(s) 

Sit: Kayvon Thibodeaux (QB hit) 👍

LB:

Start: Dvin Lloyd (2 solos, 3 assist, TFL) 👎 

Sit: Nicholas Morrow (Ended up inactive, hopefully you pivoted in time to have someone) 

DB:

Start: Trenton Thompson (Ended up inactive, hopefully you pivoted in time to have someone) 

Sit: Rayshawn Jenkins (3 solos, 4 assists) 👎

Week 17 Starts & Sits

START: Michael Hoecht, Los Angeles Rams, DL53 (ED39)

Michael Hoecht game into this season as one of the few players from last year with any significant playing experience. He was able to parlay that in a starting role and he took advantage of that delivering a strong year here in 2023. We have seen this all year with a respectable 10.28% pass rush rate. He has shown increased success over the past 5 weeks as well with a good 14.5% win rate and a really good 19.4% pass rush win rate. While this hasn’t given us the sack production we would like to see, this week’s matchup against the Giants can be a nice salve for that drought. The Giants have one of the best matchups with their 30% pressure rate allowed as well as a 17% sack conversion rate, too. This wonderful cross-section of recent strong play and an ideal matchup have Hoecht as a strong play in championship week.

SIT: Justin Madubuike, Baltimore Ravens, DL33 (DT08)

Justin Madubuike has had a transcendent season and saying his name in a sit, or more specifically fade, the situation seems blasphemous entirely. He has delivered 11 straight weeks with a sack, which is insane, but we did finally see this streak come to an end against the 49ers this last week. Additionally, his production has been outpacing expectations. Based on his pressures and rate, I would see him at 10 sacks versus 13, so a bit of negative regressions seems in order at this point. Also, his production has come primarily as a pass-rusher and his tackle floor leaves a bit to be desired (38 combined tackles over 15 games). With a limited floor, if he is not able to deliver in the sack department, he becomes a little more risky of a play. This week against the Dolphins, he is trying to bring down Tua who is one of the least sacked QBs this season. The Dolphins seem able to stay in rhythm and get the ball out quickly consistently limiting pass rush upside for their opponents. Madubuike is still relevant because of his talent, but in the final week, be wary of his upside.

START: Khaleke Hudson, Washington Commanders, LB38

Khaleke Hudson has been an absolute tackling machine at any point this year when he has been giving the starting nod. While this is still a relatively small sample size at this point (226 snaps), he has been absolutely efficient at delivering. He has 43 tackles for an unbelievable 19.0% tackle efficiency! While he is limited in his big plays delivered over this time, his tackle production more than makes up for it, and their matchup against a hyper-efficient 49ers offense, should only offer up further opportunities for him to pile up the tackles, It is as simple as that here in Week 17.

SIT: Nick Bolton, Kansas City Chiefs, LB30

Nick Bolton is starting to experience the wonders of the Steve Spagnuolo LB rotation we have always feared. Now, the question is, is this from injury limitations? Performance? The play of others? A combination of this and more? Either way, Bolton is not playing 100% of snaps, he is closer to 90%. While that is still great, the 100% we came to expect and appreciate is seemingly gone. And since his return from injury over the last two weeks, Bolton has yet to log a play beyond just tackles. This severely limits the upside we have been able to account for with him and the Bengals as an opponent this week is not the matchup we thought we had in Week 1. And Browning seems to be turning back into a pumpkin after his game against the Steelers. A hamstrung Bengals offense and a limited Bolton don’t bode well for a great Week 17 performance.

START: Jordan Battle, Cincinnati Bengals, DB19 (S18)

On the other side of the defensive matchup in the Chiefs vs. Bengals, we have Jordan Battle. And since Jordan Battle stepped in for the injured Nick Scott in week 11, the lowest tackles production we have seen from Battle was 3, but every other game we saw a minimum of 6 tackles with 3 games at 9 or more tackles! His alignment has been very good too as he is getting at least 18 box snaps every game and more like 25+ box snaps per game. But the kicker for this week is actually Patrick Mahomes who has been uncharacteristically presenting more turnover-worthy plays this season and has the 5th most up to this point in the season. While this number is slightly inflated due to the higher number of pass-play runs, this is still a volume that Battle will be seeing all day in their matchup and offers him a very nice upside in a key week for us all.

SIT: Jordan Fuller, Los Angeles Rams, DB32 (S28)

Jordan Fuller is only a few years removed from being an IDP darling (in 2021 he piled up 106 total tackles!). He is currently pacing out for 93 total tackles this season (17 games played) so he is far from a disappointment. However, his recent utilization is a bit concerning. In 2 of his last 3 weeks, he has 7 and 5 box snaps and 2 of 3 games with 4 or fewer tackles as well. He is also a product of volume this season with a below-average 8.0% tackle efficiency and having to rely on a big play to save his week, while the big plays are few and far between. His matchup against the Giants does not help his case this week with their offense struggling and switching QBs. Tyrod Taylor might provide some jolt to the offense, but there is a reason he is a backup and this offense will likely struggle against a strong Rams unit, limited by the sheer volume that Fuller will have this week.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 3

Updated: September 20th 2023

IDP Start/Sit: Week 3

 

We have been looking good on our start decisions, but the sits/fades have not worked out, yet. But as we get more information from what teams are doing and how they want to do it, we will make even better-informed decisions. And let’s start making some of those decisions for week 3.

Week 2 Recap

DL:

Start: Khalil Mack (4 solos, 1 assist, 1 sack) 👍

Sit: Quinnen Williams (6 solos) 👎

LB:

Start: Azeez Al-Shaair (5 solos, 5 assists) 👍

Sit: De’Vondre Campbell (9 solos, 4 assists) 👎

DB:

Start: Jevon Holland (8 solos, 2 assists, 1 PBU) 👍

Sit: Marcus Maye (6 solos, 1 assist) 👎

Week 3 Starts & Sits

START: Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL36 (Edge 26)

Gregory Rousseau is one of those “in-between” players for me. He has the talent, but doesn’t get high-end snap counts, and in doing so, he ends up making the big plays at time that get us excited about his upside but the snap percentages near 60% limited his ability to have a more consistent floor. This week though, he has such a favorable matchup against the Washington Commanders, that I am happy to fire up Rousseau as a strong DL option.

Washington has allowed one of the highest pressure rates at 29% so for this season, and teams have been able to take advantage of that as well, registering a just as impressive, 24% sack conversion rate. Rousseau has been able to produce in the pressure department this season as well, with 6 pressures on 33 pass-rush attempts for a very good, 18.18% pressure rate. This matchup looks like a great one for Rousseau to register his first sack of the season (and maybe more?).

SIT: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DL35 (Edge 25)

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka was a player I thought had some great “buy-low” value this off-season due to the path to the volume he seemingly had for the Buccaneers for the 2023 season. JTS is in a similar situation he is receiving only 50-60% of the snaps like Rousseau, but he does not have the consistent performances to justify his value.

He is coming off arguably the best game of his career against the Bears, but I would take that with a grain of salt for the time being, as that was a favorable matchup.

Now he gets the Philadelphia Eagles who have one of the lowest numbers in the league for both pressure rate (21%) and sack conversion (6%). The Eagles also showed us their willingness to lean heavily into what is working for them, and if they can establish a successful run game again, pass-rush opportunities could be very hard to come by for JTS and the Bucs.

START: Alex Anzalone, Detroit Lions, LB35

I might get kicked out of The IDP Show space for even suggesting this, but Anzalone seems in line for some great stats this coming Sunday. The Detroit Lions take on the Atlanta Falcons who have been very efficient moving the ball on the ground so far. They are middle of the back after 2 weeks in plays ran but they are 4th in total run plays this season. And their week 1 matchup, plays ran were skewed lower thanks to multiple turnovers in their opponents’ territory for a short field.

Detroit’s defense has not been anything special yet and is likely to allow Atlanta to pile up a good handful of plays again. If we take a look at the 2 primary LBs from those first matchups and what they did combined:

Week 1 – Panthers had 10 combined LB tackles on 51 snaps and Derrick Brown had an outlier 8 tackle game

Week 2 – Packers had 32 combined LB tackles on 82 snaps

The answer likely lies somewhere in the middle, but the game script, Anzalone’s usage, and Arthur Smith’s extreme penchant to run the ball, set nicely for the Detroit LBs and Alex Anzalone.

SIT: Nick Bolton, Kansas City Chiefs, LB10

Nick Bolton is a guy you likely spent high capital getting on your roster and might not be viable to sit him, but at least manage your expectations for this week.

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Chicago Bears and the Bears have not been good on either side of the ball up to this point. This doesn’t bode well for the IDP opportunities and Nick Bolton. First, the low number of plays ran for the Bears since they cannot sustain drives as they are just averaging 60 plays per game so far this year. Then, you pair that with Nick Bolton’s usage of 96% in week 1 and then 79% in week 2! He was not coming off the field last year, and now all of a sudden we are seeing this, it makes me nervous about Bolton’s upside.

Additionally, the Chiefs’ offense should not struggle to move the ball against the Bears’ defense meaning even less time for the Bears to have the ball and run plays for Nick Bolton and the other Chiefs’ IDPs.

You can still start Bolton due to his ability to make plays around the ball and be efficient, but if you can pivot away this week or construct your lineup with a lower floor in mind, I highly recommend it.

START: Dax Hill, Cincinnati Bengals, DB52 (S47)

Dax Hill has had a nice start to this season for the Bengals. However, the Bengals haven’t had the best start to their season. And it has showed with their inability to keep opponents off the field. Hill has already played 99% of the snaps for a total of 147 snaps. Even with the volume, Hill has showed strong efficiency with 10.8% tackle efficiency. He has added an INT and a PBU as well. His sweet spot alignment of 40.8% is not elite, but it is enough to help give his floor in place for IDP production.

Now, enter the Los Angeles Rams who have surprised us with their performances this year and have gotten back some of that magic we saw during their title run in 2021 season. And in doing so, they are leading the NFL in plays ran with 156. This aligns with the Bengals performance this year and I expect more of the same for both the Rams’ offense and the Bengals defense. Even without the the strong efficiency, there is enough volume that Dax Hill should outplay DB52 by quite a bit this week.

SIT: Kyle Dugger, New England Patriots, DB12 (S12)

Kyle Dugger is one of my favorite IDP DBs this season, but you can only do so much in the DB role for IDP. And the opportunity for Dugger this week looks bleak facing off against the New York Jets. They have averaged just under 50 plays a game the first two weeks with Zach Wilson leading the offense. Even if Dugger is getting 100% of the snaps, 49 is not a great opportunity. Pair that with the offensive line of the Jets that is allowing plenty of pressures and sacks already, the chance the ball even gets close to Dugger is not looking great.

The Patriots defense also showed the willingness to play Dugger primarily deep, although, this was likely to help counter the deep routes of Tyreek Hill more than a desire to consistently play him there. He has played 61% either in the box, at DL, or in the slot, but even that ideal usage, might not be enough to see Dugger deliver a top 12 performance this week.

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