The Watch List: 2018 SEC Preview

By Bob Cowper

Updated: August 28th 2018

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players, storylines and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. Check back throughout the Summer for previews on each conference and my preseason predictions. During the regular season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year.

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Favorite: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama. Get used to hearing Tua’s name because you are going to hear it a lot. He became a household name when he replaced Jalen Hurts at halftime in the national championship and led Alabama to victory against Georgia. Tagovailoa won’t be the running threat that Hurts was but he’ll add enough to keep defenses honest. Picking a quarterback from a championship favorite with instant name recognition is a safe Heisman bet to make, even if he’s just a sophomore.
Darkhorse Heisman Candidate: Jordan Ta’amu, QB, Ole Miss. The Rebels will struggle as they are still dealing with the fallout from the recent recruiting scandal but I have a feeling that JUCO transfer quarterback Jordan Ta’amu will impress this year. College football fantasy players are bullish on his potential which makes me think he could sneak into the Heisman conversation with big passing and rushing numbers. Ta’amu has the luxury of throwing to the best receiving corps in the country which will make him look good on a regular basis; the team is also returning four starting offensive linemen which should keep him upright.
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri. Lock led the NCAA in TDs last season (44) and threw for nearly 4,000 yards. He loses his offensive coordinator this year but the Tigers will still put up points. Lock will top the charts of most conference passing stats.
Defensive Player of the Year: Devin White, LB, LSU. White was a stat-stuffing force last season. He led the conference in tackles per game (10.2; 133 overall). He also added 14.0 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. Since Alabama has much turnover on their defense, White should be able to steal the spotlight on defense in the SEC.
Newcomer of the Year: Demetris Robertson, WR, Georgia. Robertson is transferring in from Cal and was granted immediate eligibility so he will see the field in 2018. As a true freshman in 2016, Robertson snagged 50 balls for 767 yards and 7 TDs. Robertson was the top ranked receiver in his recruiting class per 247Sports so he comes with high expectations. Georgia has lacked a true difference maker at the position in recent years so it will be fun to see how much QB Jake Fromm is able to grow with Robertson as a target.
Underclassman to Watch: D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia. Swift takes over the reigns with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel on to the NFL. Swift got involved as a true freshman, rushing for 618-3 and adding 17 receptions. He’ll earn 1,200+ total yards and double digit scores this season.
Best QB-WR Tandem: Jordan Ta’amu and AJ Brown, Ole Miss. As I’ve mentioned, Ole Miss has a stellar group of receivers which is led by Brown. He may the best of the bunch in the conference, although South Carolina’s Bryan Edwards may disagree (more on both below). Ta’amu was efficient in limited duty in 2017 and will give the offense a boost as the full-time signal caller in 2018.
Best RB Corps: Alabama. The Crimson Tide have two #1 running back recruits on their roster according to Phil Steele: senior Damien Harris and sophomore Najee Harris (no relation). The Harris brothers combined for nearly 1,400 yards and 14 TDs. Josh Jacobs is the best receiver of the bunch (14 receptions last year) and would probably start for most other teams. Alabama had the conference’s second-best rushing attack in 2017. Even though they lost Bo Scarborough, the Tide will continue to dominate on the ground. Keep on eye on Georgia’s backfield as well, they are just as deep but younger (Editor’s note: UGA freshman RB Zamir White tore his ACL and is out for the year).
Coach on the Hottest Seat: Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee. Judging by the vim and vigor that Vols fans ran off Greg Schiano before he was even offered the job, I fear for Pruitt’s safety if Tennessee fails to be bowl eligible again in 2018. In reality there’s no way he would lose the job after one season, barring some off-field scandal, but I figure he’s probably the odds-on favorite to be the next to lose a job in the SEC. Other new guys like Dan Mullen, Jimbo Fisher, Matt Luke and Chad Morris each have a longer rope (for different reasons, of course). Hopefully the Pruitt family decided to rent rather than buy.

Teams to Watch

South Carolina (9-4 in 2017)

The Gamecocks finished the regular season at 8-4 in 2017 and tacked on an Outback Bowl win over Michigan to get to nine victories. I am predicting South Carolina to finish the season with the same record as last year so why are they on my Teams to Watch list? Because there’s a non-zero chance they come out atop the SEC East and steal a conference championship appearance. At this point it’s safe to pick Georgia to win the division but these two skirmish in Week 2. It’s rare to have such a heavyweight divisional game that early and it could be South Carolina’s shot to shock the college football world. As Tom Luginbill recently pointed out on XM radio, South Carolina lucks out in their cross-over games. They avoid Alabama, Auburn and LSU and instead get Missouri, Texas A&M and Ole Miss. The offense returns all of its productive skill position players except for TE Hayden Hurst. Thanks to NFL prospect receivers Deebo Samuel and Bryan Edwards, QB Jake Bentley should be able to keep the offense moving. The defense will be missing a number of key pieces from the 2017 unit (which held opponents to just 20.7 ppg), but they have gone into the last two seasons with just six returners and should fare fine. I don’t think I’m willing to bet the over with any significant amount but I would not be surprised to see USC contending late in the season.

Florida (4-7 in 2017)

I am certainly no Gator fan but they are an easy pick as a team to improve. New head coach Dan Mullen comes to Gainesville with the luxury of 19 projected returning starters. RB Jordan Scarlett returns after his season-long suspension for participating in a credit card fraud scheme. Scarlett rushed for 1,070 yards in 2016 so he’s a valuable piece to get back and add to last year’s leading rushers Lamical Perine and Malik Davis. The quarterback position is a big question mark. I would not be surprised to see Mullen reboot and start freshman Emory Jones under center at some point this season. Like South Carolina, Florida’s schedule sets up nicely for 7-8 win potential. They only play four true road games and get their hardest cross-division opponent, LSU, at home. I won’t be rooting for Florida to become bowl eligible but it’s going to happen.

Players to Watch

Honorable Mentions

Jarrett Stidham, QB, Auburn: My opinion of Stidham fluctuated throughout the 2017 season. I questioned him early but was impressed with him late. In the Georgia and Alabama games, Stidham made a positive impression on me as a smart runner with the ball. This may be damning with faint praise but I likened him to Alex Smith at one point last season (you may remember, Smith was the first overall pick in 2005 so that comp is actually saying a lot). In 2017, Stidham gained 3,158 yards through the air; he added 153 on the ground. That rushing total belies his true impact though. Per Phil Steele’s stats, Stidham gained 383 yards on the ground but lost 230 of them to sacks. Stidham scored 22 combined TDs which I’d like to see increase to 30 this time around. He’s in the conversation for the first quarterback off the board at the 2019 NFL Draft so I’ll be monitoring him all season long.
Nick Fitzgerald, QB, Mississippi State: A number of college football minds that I listen to and read love Fitzgerald. Admittedly, I have not watched much of him so this is a speculative addition to my preview based on what I’ve heard elsewhere. Fitzgerald is a dual-threat quarterback who rushed for 984 yards and 14 TDs. He threw for 1,782 yards and 15 TDs with 11 INTs. Fitzgerald missed the end of the 2017 season with a dislocated ankle but he’ll be fine for 2018. Hopefully the injury does not hamper his rushing ability in any way. Fitzgerald has an NFL-ready body at 6050/230 so if we see passing game improvement he could land on the draft radar.
Benny Snell, RB, Kentucky: Throughout his first two seasons on campus, Snell has been supremely productive. Over those 26 games, he has 2,424 yards and 32 TDs. He added ten receptions in 2017; that’s a nice addition to his resume but in 2017 he should strive for twenty. I have limited exposure to Snell but from what I have seen he appears to have patience and vision at the line and enough size and speed for the next level. I have a feeling that Snell will be a sneaky fantasy rookie come 2018 if he lands in a good spot.
Trayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M: Williams is an interesting running back prospect to me because his height and running style don’t seem to match. I’m not quite sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing. I watched some 2016 highlight videos and his 2017 game against Auburn. He’s an upright runner who appears to always be running downhill. He’s listed at 5090/200 but he looks smaller on film. I didn’t see a ton of wiggle and tackle breaking ability but he has the speed to hit a hole and gain the necessary yardage. What was most interesting was seeing that he’s such a good receiver that the Aggies trust him to line up split out. Let’s see how he rates as a pass blocker but after a quick glance I think Williams will project as a valuable passing down back in the NFL.
Damien Harris, RB, Alabama: Harris was in the running for a first round fantasy draft grade last season but decided to return to Alabama for his senior season. I’m not quite sure that was the right decision because the Tide backfield is crowded. Harris is a durable 5110/221 runner with speed and elusiveness to break off big runs. He has averaged over 7.0 yards per carry the last two seasons which is impressive for anybody, but especially for a back who is 220+. I’ve seen Harris labeled as “under the radar” but I find that narrative hard to believe. He’s a former top recruit who has two back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons at Alabama. That’s about as “on the radar” as you can get.
DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss: Metcalf has elite size (6040/225) and measureables. He made Sports Illustrated’s 2017 “Freaks List” because of his past exploits as a high school track star. Metcalf reportedly ran a 4.46 last offseason which would instantly make him a first round NFL Draft prospect. Before we jump to conclusions though, let’s see how Metcalf does in 2018, sharing the wealth again with a stacked receiving corps. In 2017, he ended with a respectable 39-646-7 line; it really is a shame that Metcalf is competing for targets instead of being a no-brainer WR1 for his squad.
Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina: It’s so disappointing as a college football fan that somebody as talented as Deebo Samuel has struggled with injuries. Samuel has played in just 18 career games in three years at South Carolina. His career totals of 86-1,194-5 receiving and 17-128-7 rushing and 3 return TDs are encouraging. I’ll be rooting for Samuel to get through a full season so we can fully evaluate his NFL Draft stock come the Spring.
Albert Okwuegbunam, TE, Missouri: The man of many nicknames. My favorite so far might be “A-Ok” but it’s going to be a long draft season of pronunciation jokes directed at Mr. Okwuegbunam. He’s going to be a redshirt sophomore this season so there is no guarantee he comes out, especially considering how long it usually takes tight ends to develop. If Okwuegbunam does come out, he’ll be highly sought for his potential. As a redshirt freshman, Okwuegbunam had 29 receptions, 415 yards and 11 TDs. His touchdowns will regress in 2018 but I expect his other totals to improve. He has size similar to that of Dallas Goedert from the 2018 class. To reach that level though he will need to prove he’s a good blocker and all-around athlete.
Isaac Nauta, TE, Georgia: Nauta’s fantasy potential took a hit last season because of a significant decrease in production. He put up a great 29-361-3 line in 2016 which earned him Freshman All-American honors by a number of publications. In 2017, however, Nauta caught just nine balls despite playing in all fifteen games. Improving as a blocker in the dominant Bulldog rushing offense is important in NFL terms, but it won’t help Nauta’s fantasy draft stock. Hopefully we see more balance from Nauta this year as Georgia moves to a more balanced attack.
Josh Allen, LB, Kentucky: The “other” Josh Allen might just end up being the better professional prospect. This Josh Allen is a pass rushing outside ‘backer at Kentucky. He has led the Wildcats in sacks each of the last two seasons (7, 7) and topped 60 tackles in both campaigns. His size, speed and statistical profiles remind me of Lorenzo Carter who I was very high on last season. I’m looking forward to watching some tape of Allen’s this year to see if that comp holds true.
Devin White, LB, LSU: The aforementioned White is a productive MLB who I frequently see popping up as a first rounder for next year’s NFL Draft. White appears to have more than enough speed to get to the edge and has the ability to fight off blocks and chase down runners. He is an impact player who gets into the backfield and is constantly disruptive.
Greedy Williams, CB, LSU: Is there a better nickname for a cornerback? Williams lived up to the moniker in 2017 by snatching 6 INTs. He added 38 tackles and 10 pass breakups as well. Williams is long at 6030 and will be coveted for his size and ball skills.

Drew Lock, QB, Missouri

Lock, who has started since early in his freshman season, is another name to remember come April. He’s currently in the running for the QB1 spot and if history is any indication he could creep into first round consideration. Lock nearly eclipsed 4,000 passing yards last season (3,964) and threw an FBS best 44 TDs. He threw 13 INTs which was worst in the conference but you can excuse that when he puts up the points he does. In fact, Missouri led the SEC in scoring with 37.5 points per game. Lock loses offensive coordinator, and quarterback whisperer, Josh Heupel, who took the UCF job. For Lock’s future, it’s less about whether the offense keeps moving and more about working on his consistency.

While watching Lock, I felt that both the speed and touch on his balls was average to above average but inconsistent. To borrow a cliche, he has the “arm talent” but he doesn’t display it on every rep. I have to admit that he can throw a beauty of a ball, dude can spin it. Lock needs to improve his accuracy and I’d also like to see him anticipate his receiver’s movements a bit more. He has enough speed and athleticism to escape the pocket but I did not see him complete a single pass after being flushed against South Carolina. Lock is listed at 6040 but I bet he’ll measure in smaller than that; at times he seemed to disappear behind the offensive line.

Lock isn’t my QB1 at the moment but he’s flirting with the top five in my rankings. I was encouraged enough by what I saw to know that I need to keep a close eye on him this season. He’s going to be a prospect whose value relies heavily on which games you choose to watch. (Film watched: South Carolina 2017, Highlights 2017)

AJ Brown, WR, Ole Miss

As I have mentioned elsewhere in this preview, Brown is one cog in a mighty Ole Miss receiving machine. He led the team in receptions, yards and TDs in 2017 (75-1,252-11). One knock against Brown would be that his stats are inflated by three huge games against subpar opponents. Against South Alabama, he went for 8-233-2; the following week against Tenn-Martin he totaled 8-156-2. Later in the season, versus Louisiana-Lafayette, he hauled in 14 balls for 185 yards and two scores.

Brown is a 6010/225 slot receiver who makes his hay after the catch. He is a bear to bring down and creates extra yardage while defenders try to drag him down. He has enough speed to break free when he is able to shrug off a would-be tackler. In addition to power moves, he has some finesse moves as well; against South Carolina he executed a fantastic juke that literally may have broken the defender’s ankle. I was not able to devote the time to fully study Brown’s route running so I will need to check back on that. In the Kentucky game he ran a lot of short and intermediate routes. I’d love to see him used outside and on more varied routes in 2018. I did not observe Brown in any high point contested catch situations but I don’t doubt his ability to win in those situations with his strength.

Because he feasted on lesser defenses, it will be vitally important to track how Brown does in 2018 versus top competition. If he shows that he can play against the big boys too, he’ll be near the top of my 2019 receiver rankings. Ironically, he might be fighting off teammate DK Metcalf for the top spot on my list. (Film watched: Kentucky 2017, Highlights 2017)

Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina

Surprise, another wide receiver who is vying for the pinnacle of the position. Have I mentioned that 2019 will be a good year for rookie wide receivers? Through two years as a starter, Edwards has 108 receptions, 1,383 yards and 9 TDs. His stats are not eye-popping but against tough SEC opposition it’s understandable. Similarly to Brown, Edwards best games came outside of the Southeastern Conference. His two best totals, 122 and 90 yards, came against Louisiana Tech and Wofford, respectively. Edwards is listed at 6030/215 which puts him in a sweet spot of talented NFL wide receivers. I’d like to see his speed and acceleration improve but even if he runs in the 4.55-4.60 range, at that height, he could draw comps to Michael Thomas or Allen Robinson. Edwards certainly has some ways to go though before we truly bestow that comparison upon him though.

Unfortunately, there is not much tape yet available for Edwards. I was stuck with just a single game to choose from. In that game, against NC State, I noted that Edwards is violent out of his route breaks, whipping his head towards the quarterback and looking for the ball. He also showed that he’s not afraid to go over the middle to make a catch. It’s important to keep an even keel when scouting highlight videos, after all they are by definition the player’s best moments, but I came away very impressed with Edwards. In those highlights he showed an ability to win both at the catch point and after the catch. There were a number of circus grabs that showcased his tracking, concentration and body control. In a few close-up replays I even got a glimpse of his footwork at the line of scrimmage which looked positive.

At no point while watching highlights did I feel “this is the best we’ll ever see from Edwards.” Instead, I thought to myself, “there’s so much potential for Edwards to show us more.” I’m glad South Carolina has such a big game early in the season (Week 2 vs Georgia) because it will give me a chance to study him even further. (Film watched: NC State 2017, Highlights 2017)

Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor. My experimental grading system uses a Madden-like approach by weighting position relevant traits on a 100-point scale; bonus or negative points are awarded based on production, size, injury history and character. Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths. So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113. This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch. For top prospects I may add a third game, while for long shots I might only devote the time for one. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft
Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com, the media home for FWAA members

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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The Watch List: Bowl Game Previews, Part V

By Bob Cowper

Updated: December 30th 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. During the college bowl season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. Note: times listed are Eastern.

Friday, Dec. 29

Hyundai Sun Bowl, Arizona State (7-5) vs. #24 North Carolina State (8-4), 2 p.m. (CBS)

Arizona State: 40th scoring offense, 49th passing offense, 50th rushing offense; 88th scoring defense, 119th passing defense, 82nd rushing defense
NC State: 47th scoring offense, 29nd passing offense, 51st rushing offense; 50th scoring defense, 97th passing defense, 29th rushing defense

Both of these teams have endured some coaching carousel drama over the last month. NC State’s Dave Doeren was an early target in Tennessee’s never-ending coach search but ultimately he spurned the Vols to stick with the Wolfpack. Doeren has NC State playing in their fourth straight bowl and should the team stay competitive next year he’ll probably be in the running for an even bigger job at the end of 2018. Arizona State made the odd, in my opinion, hire of Herm Edwards. Herm is a master motivator for sure but Herm has not been involved with the college game since 1989. Even more odd is that outgoing coach Todd Graham is sticking around to coach the bowl.

Arizona State’s offense is led by two NFL hopefuls in senior RB Kalen Ballage and sophomore WR N’Keal Harry. Ballage is a big back at 6’3″ and 230lbs. His size concerns me because few backs have been successful in the NFL at that height. Since 2010, only four backs have measured 6’2″ and 225lbs or bigger at the combine: Derrick Henry, Matt Jones, Dominique Brown and James Wilder. Henry has potential but he has not yet earned the starting role in Tennessee and teams may be hesitant to roll the dice on a big back like Ballage. Ballage has not handled a full load in any of his four seasons but he is a productive pass catcher (44 receptions in 2016, 19 this year). His high number of carries came this year with 153. He has under 2,000 yards in his career. I’m just not able to get that excited about him, honestly. I have read comparisons to David Johnson but I think that is crazy: Johnson was more than twice as productive in most stat categories in college. Ballage will get drafted in fantasy leagues but it won’t be by me. The other big name for the Sun Devils is WR N’Keal Harry. Harry is not draft eligible so it’s not worth a deep dive yet but you will hear his name constantly next season. He has elite height (6’4″) and has been very productive as a young receiver on a mediocre team (career line of 131-1,659-12). Add Harry to your 2019 short list now!

North Carolina State has three draft prospects that I will touch on. First and foremost is DE Bradley Chubb. I mentioned Chubb a few times in the middle of the season when NC State was looking like it could challenge Clemson for the conference title. He has 25 sacks and 54.5 tackles for loss in his career. Chubb is relentless and should be a Top 5 pick in the NFL Draft. Sadly, he’s banged up and may miss the bowl game. On offense, QB Ryan Finley and TE Jaylen Samuels are the two to watch. Samuels is one of my favorite players of the season because he transcends position. He is listed as a TE but he’s really too small to play the position in the NFL. Instead he’ll probably factor in as a hybrid RB, FB, TE who lines up all over the field. To give you an idea of Samuels’ versatility, look at his 2017 stats: 68 receptions, 547 receiving yards, 4 rushing TDs, 72 rushing attempts, 387 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs. Samuels was the only player in the FBS with more than 65 receptions and rushing attempts. More so than any other prospect, Samuels’ 2018 fantasy value relies heavily on his landing spot. If he gets drafted by a team with a creative offense he could turn into the ultimate third down and short yardage weapon. Finley is a late round quarterback prospect that is hard for me to get excited about. He should add a few pounds to his 6’4″ frame because he’s listed at just 210lbs and may be lighter. He’s efficient and does not turn the ball over often. Finley does have another year of eligibility so we could see him come back for another season to improve his draft stock. WalterFootball.com has him as QB16 for 2018 while NFLDraftScout.com has him as QB14 in his 2019 class. If he can show a more prolific side to his game in 2018, he could become a mid-rounder next year.

Even if it weren’t for the Sun Devils coaching distractions, I would have gone for NC State because Arizona State’s defense is so bad. Prediction: North Carolina State

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, #8 USC (11-2) vs. #5 Ohio State (11-2), 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

USC: 24th scoring offense, 19th passing offense, 36th rushing offense; 61st scoring defense, 98th passing defense, 57th rushing defense
Ohio State: 5th scoring offense, 28th passing offense, 13th rushing offense; 22nd scoring defense, 18th passing defense, 7th rushing defense

I don’t care what the name of this bowl is, it’s the Rose Bowl to me. I hate the fact that with the new CFP we lose the historical tradition of some of the biggest games. The folks running the Cotton Bowl got themselves a doozy of a matchup with two Power 5 conference champions and a slew of NFL prospects. Covering each and every one of the draft hopefuls in this game is impossible – I will touch on a few but by no means is this a comprehensive list.

Let’s start with Ohio State. By now, we have all heard and participated in the debate about whether or not Ohio State should have been in the playoff. I fear that topic will be prominent during the telecast and will overshadow some of the great players on the field for the Buckeyes. QB JT Barrett improved on a number of stats this season but probably hurt his chances of playing quarterback in the NFL after poor performances in three big games (against Iowa, Michigan [before the injury], and Wisconsin). I don’t have an opinion yet on whether Barrett should enter the draft process as a QB but my gut says he will. The RB duo of freshman JK Dobbins and redshirt sophomore Mike Weber was very productive (nearly 2,000 combined rushing yards and 17 TDs). Dobbins took advantage of an early, and lingering, injury to Weber to steal the lead role. If Weber comes out for the 2018 draft, I think his stock is less now than it was four months ago. He could return but it’s clear he won’t be the first choice back. Maybe he transfers, sits out a year, and dominates at a lower level Power 5 school in 2019. I listed Weber as my RB13 in November so if he does come out he’s a mid-rounder at best. The strength of Ohio State’s team lies outside of the offensive skill positions. Drafttek.com has six Buckeyes ranked in their Top 10 NFL draft prospects from the Big Ten: three defensive linemen (Sam Hubbard, Tyquan Lewis, Dante Booker), one corner (Denzel Ward) and two offensive linemen (Jamarco Jones and Billy Price). I’ll venture a guess that four of the six go in the first round (Ward, Hubbard, Price, Jones) with the other two following on Day Two. The best prospect on the defense, sophomore DE Nick Bosa, is not yet draft eligible but he’d be a first rounder too if he were.

The biggest name on USC’s team is QB Sam Darnold but he has really hurt his draft stock this season. Darnold was a walking turnover in 2017: 12 INTs and 10 fumbles (7 of which were lost). Elite quarterback prospects just can’t turn the ball over that often; for comparison, Rosen (13) and Mayfield (5) combine for fewer turnovers than Darnold. Darnold is only a redshirt sophomore so he is young and still has two more years of eligibility should he decide to return to college for further seasoning. Ultimately, I think Darnold comes out and is a Top 3 pick because of the potential the he has shown. Despite his turnovers, the yardage, scoring and efficiency are all above average. He’s also an above average runner with enough speed to earn first downs when flushed from the pocket. What Darnold has that doesn’t show up in the box score is his confidence and swagger. If I had to pick one college QB to lead my team in a comeback, I would take Darnold because he wouldn’t shrink from the challenge. One negative: Darnold’s throwing motion. I noticed this in the offseason and plan on watching more film before the draft to see if it’s improved. Darnold’s favorite receiver is WR Deontay Burnett. Burnett is undersized (6’0″ and 170lbs) so he likely won’t garner early round attention but I’ve raved about him numerous times this season. A close size comp for Burnett would be Travis Benjamin who was a 4th round pick back in 2012. Burnett was good, but not great, this season going for 74-975-9. I started the season low on RB Ronald Jones but I came around by mid-September. He is just so quick and agile that it’s almost not fair to defenders. I was previously concerned about his size but no longer. Even though he missed a game due to injury, Jones totaled 1,486 yards and 18 rushing TDs; he added 13 receptions for 165 yards and another score. After a down game against Notre Dame, Jones ended the season strong with over 800 yards and 10 TDs in the last five games. He’s fun to watch and I am so happy he won’t be skipping the Cotton Bowl. On defense, the Trojans have a number of prospects including Cameron Smith and Porter Gustin. Gustin missed most of the season, and is doubtful for the bowl, but could get drafted based on a solid sophomore season if he comes out (68 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks). Smith is a prototypical MLB who has 263 career tackles and has been a big part of the USC defense for three years; according to WalterFootball.com he is looking at a mid-round grade.

Ohio State’s defense will be the best unit on the field and is strong enough to limit Darnold and Jones. I expect the Buckeyes to win in a game where they beat USC in time of possession. Prediction: Ohio State

Saturday, Dec. 30

TaxSlayer Bowl, Louisville (8-4) vs. #23 Mississippi State (8-4), 12 p.m. (ESPN)

Louisville: 13th scoring offense, 15th passing offense, 14th rushing offense; 71st scoring defense, 77th passing defense, 52nd rushing defense
Mississippi State: 38th scoring offense, 109th passing offense, 15th rushing offense; 24th scoring defense, 13th passing defense, 24th rushing defense

As far as the NFL Draft prospects go this matchup is all about Louisville, let’s touch on Mississippi State first though. QB Nick Fitzgerald could be an interesting study in 2019 but I don’t think he has enough of a resume to warrant coming out for 2018, especially after a season-ending ankle injury sustained on Thanksgiving. NFLDraftScout.com has him as the QB6 in his 2019 draft class. Fitzgerald will need to improve on his efficiency in 2018 because he doesn’t complete enough passes (55.6%) and throws too many INTs (15:11 ratio this season). He’s a tremendous rushing threat with 33 career rushing TDs and nearly 2,500 yards but that won’t matter to scouts if he’s missing throws. The backup QB is freshman Keytaon Thompson. I don’t think I have seen any of Thompson play this season but I am intrigued by the combination of his size (6’4″ 222lbs) and rushing ability (he played in nine games this season totaling 299 yards and 3 TDs rushing). Thompson played significant snaps in the Egg Bowl vs Ole Miss after Fitzgerald went down so at least he’s not coming in cold. He rushed for 121 yards and a score but only completed 13 of his 27 passes for 195 yards. I came across the name of DB JT Gray on NDT Scouting’s website while researching potential draft prospects from Mississippi State. He has played at both linebacker and safety and his listed measureables are similar to those of Jabril Peppers who was a first rounder last year; maybe he could be a poor man’s Pepper in the late rounds. Per Pro Football Focus, Gray did not allow a single TD in coverage this year and the passer rating against him was 70.4 which is above average.

Louisville has their own DB, Jaire Alexander, who excels in those same metrics. Alexander has also shut out opposing receivers and, this is not a typo, has allowed a passer rating against of just 17.7. For comparison, a QB who had one completion for negative nine yards would have a rating of 16. Alexander allowed just five receptions on the season and ranks 5th in PFF’s “Cover Snaps per Reception” stat, meaning he is in coverage a lot and allows few receptions. Alexander declared for the 2018 draft already and is skipping the bowl so you won’t get to see him play against Mississippi State but you’ll see him playing on Sundays soon. You may be thinking to yourself, how has he not mentioned Lamar Jackson yet? You’re right I may be burying the lede but Jackson has been talked about ad nauseam on every platform this season. That includes me too: I tagged Jackson in eight of my weekly The Watch List pieces and focused on him in my preseason preview. Talk of Jackson changing position is useless, in my opinion, because Jackson will go into the NFL as a quarterback. If anything, the brief spark of Deshaun Watson this season shows NFL teams that a lightning quick deep-ball thrower with accuracy issues can still lead a team to victory. Some team will take Jackson in the first round but I don’t think I’ll be taking him in any of my fantasy drafts. Jackson’s top target is junior WR Jaylen Smith. Smith is 6’4″ and 219lbs which is great size for a receiver but it’s his speed and deep-ball ability that makes him a threat to the defense. To illustrate this, despite his size, only three of his 53 receptions came in the red zone; meanwhile he had seven receptions of 25+ yards. He totaled 873 yards and 6 TDs (he missed three games due to a wrist injury). I’m not as high on Smith as some, including our friends at Dynasty Command Center who have him as their WR5 for 2018 rookies. Jackson and Smith versus the stout Bulldog defense will be fun to watch, regardless of what you think of their NFL chances.

Defense wins championships, sure, but offense wins college bowl games. Take the Cardinals. Prediction: Louisville

AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Iowa State (7-5) vs. #20 Memphis (10-2), 12:30 p.m. (ABC)

Iowa State: 53rd scoring offense, 32nd passing offense, 112th rushing offense; 28th scoring defense, 81st passing defense, 31st rushing defense
Memphis: 2nd scoring offense, 8th passing offense, 31st rushing offense; 104th scoring defense, 123rd passing defense, 100th rushing defense

Iowa State had a whirlwind of a season. Get it? The Cyclones had a whirlwind…. okay, okay I’ll stop. Seriously though, Iowa State was a surprisingly fun team to watch this season. They had a number of interesting story lines throughout the season including 1) an up-and-coming head coach in Matt Campbell, 2) jack-of-all-trades Joel Lanning playing at both LB and QB in a number of games, 3) the continued emergence of RB David Montgomery, 4) the revolving door at quarterback including underclassmen, walk-ons and transfers and 5) the upset of #3 Oklahoma and #4 TCU. Montgomery is fantastic. He has good speed, is amazing at breaking tackles and gaining yards after contact and is a reliable receiver. He is just a sophomore so he’s not coming out in 2018 but there’s a chance he is my top RB next year. Leading receiver Allen Lazard is a 6’5″ red zone monster (15 of his 25 career touchdowns came inside the twenty). I think Lazard is underappreciated as far as draftniks go. I had him as WR13 a few weeks ago but will likely move him up into the WR10 range. The Iowa State defense has played well most of the season and is led by emotional leader Joel Lanning (the aforementioned former QB). As much as I enjoy rooting for Lanning, I don’t think he’ll be considered by NFL teams.

Memphis has an incredibly efficient and high scoring offense that will be fun to watch against the solid Iowa State defense. QB Riley Ferguson is a former Tennessee transfer who has played exceptionally well in his two seasons at Memphis. Ferguson throws a lot of touchdowns, completes more than 63% of his passes, has never thrown more than 10 INTs in a season and has 10 career rushing touchdowns. He’s also 6’4″; like Ryan Finley at NC State he is just 210lbs so needs to add some weight for the NFL. I think Ferguson sneaks up NFL draft boards and gets taken on Day Two. Ferguson’s top target was undoubtedly WR Anthony Miller. I fell in love with Miller in the preseason when I jokingly compared him to Antonio Brown. In hindsight that comp may have been more accurate than I could have guessed. Miller caught 92 balls for 1,407 yards and 17 TDs. Miller has unreal hands, great body control and is tough. If you watched the AAC Championship game you might recall how exhausted and banged up he was yet he was on the field and still making plays when it mattered the most. I want him on my NFL team and my fantasy team and I don’t care what pick it takes. In September, I had him at 2.02 for 2018 rookie drafts but now I would even be willing to part with a late first for him.

By the rankings this may not be the best game of the day but I bet it’s the most entertaining. The Tigers offense is just too good to stop. Prediction: Memphis

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl, #11 Washington Huskies (10-2) vs. #9 Penn State (10-2), 4 p.m. (ESPN)

Washington: 17th scoring offense, 73rd passing offense, 39th rushing offense; 6th scoring defense, 19th passing defense, 2nd rushing defense
Penn State: 7th scoring offense, 26th passing offense, 62nd rushing offense; 7th scoring defense, 43rd passing defense, 17th rushing defense

This PAC-12 vs Big Ten matchup definitely has less going for it than the Ohio State vs USC matchup but it’s still a game with some key NFL prospects to keep an eye on. Thankfully, Penn State RB Saquon Barkley confirmed back in November that he planned to play in the team’s bowl game.

Penn State was looking like a favorite to make the playoff when they were ranked #2 in late October but back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State put an end to that. Even the most casual of fan knows about Barkley and I have covered him exhaustively for RSO. In fact, I tagged Barkley in thirteen different articles this season. My deepest dive on Barkley came in the preseason in my Big Ten conference preview. At some point you just run out of things to say but he was so dominant at points he just demanded to be discussed. Barkley ran the ball less this year but he increased his yards per attempt (5.5 to 5.7) and became more involved as a receiver (47 receptions, 594 yards and 3 TDs). He’ll likely be a Top 5 NFL Draft pick and will be the unanimous 1.01 pick in fantasy rookie drafts. QB Trace McSorley is also draft eligible but he will probably return for another season. He won’t be able to improve on his size (just 6’0″ and 202lbs) but he can continue to improve his efficiency and yards per attempt. The pass catcher with the highest draft grade in my opinion will be TE Mike Gesicki. Gesicki went for 51-501-9 this season and had one of my favorite highlights of the season when he hurdled McSorley after a touchdown. Penn State keeps track of some combine-like measureables and supposedly Gesicki ran a 4.54 40 yard dash – that is crazy good for somebody his size. I expect that number to increase at the combine, it must be the benefit of some “home cooking,” but still he’s looking at a favorable size/speed comp to the likes of Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce. The first round may be too early for Gesicki realistically but he’s a Day Two guy at worst. The Nittany Lions’ top defensive prospect is senior safety Marcus Allen. I researched him in the preseason and was nonplussed. I felt he needed to show scouts that he was equally as good in coverage as he is in run support. He still succeeded in run support (just two missed tackles against the run per Pro Football Focus) but he only had one interception (the first of his career) and had just two pass break-ups (just ten in his career). He’ll probably start his career as a situational player and won’t be an IDP factor right away unless he can prove he should stay on the field for every snap.

Washington QB Jake Browning finished 6th in Heisman voting in 2016 after a huge 43 TD season. Unfortunately for Huskies fans, that season was the outlier for Browning as he returned to his 2015 levels with just 18 TDs this year. His completion percentage did increase significantly this year (62.1% to 68.8%) but all of his other rate stats decreased. One of my favorite plays in football is the quick kick from a quarterback and Browning excels at that: he has 11 career punts, averaging about 35 yards per kick. The two offensive standouts are WR Dante Pettis and RB Myles Gaskin. I’ve never been a huge fan of either and I am willing to admit it is probably an east coast bias since I don’t see them play that often. I previewed Pettis in the preseason and expressed concerns that his size would limit him in the NFL. Pettis played in thirteen games each of his first three seasons so he’s avoid any long-term injuries but he is currently hurt (but probabl for the bowl game). He is a good receiver (averaging 40 receptions, 500 yards and 6 TDs per year over his four year career) but a better punt returner (9 career punt return TDs, including 4 in 2017). He’s currently my WR8 and should find himself drafted in the late second round. RB Myles Gaskin is ranked a little lower in my positional rankings (RB13) but he’s somebody that I definitely need to revisit. Gaskin’s numbers are great and if they were attached to a different name I would probably be higher on him. He rushed for 1,282 yards this season and rushed for 19 TDs. He also added 18 grabs for 228 yards and 3 receiving scores. He has been consistent, and healthy, throughout his three year career. He’s gone over 1,300 total yards each year and has 47 career TDs. He’s slightly undersized (think Theo Riddick) but not so small that he can’t play a heavy role in an NFL offense. On defense, LB Azeem Victor and DT Vita Vea are both likley Day Two prospects. Victor’s college career has been marred by injuries and off-field issues (he was suspended to start 2017 for a failed drug test and was suspended late in the season after a DUI arrest). In 2015, his only full season, Victor had 95 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks and an interception. Vea is an agile, space-eating DT who could end up going in the late first if he dominates the combine. Chris Trapasso of CBS Sports had Vea going 19th overall in his December 5th mock; Trapasso thinks that Vea may be the most physically strong prospect in the entire draft class.

Given the strength of the two defenses, I expect this one to be a low scoring affair. I’ll take the team with the best player on the field. Prediction: Penn State

Capital One Orange Bowl, #10 Miami (10-2) vs. #6 Wisconsin (12-1), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Miami: 58th scoring offense, 50th passing offense, 73rd rushing offense; 21st scoring defense, 52nd passing defense, 44th rushing defense
Wisconsin: 31st scoring offense, 95th passing offense, 21st rushing offense; 4th scoring defense, 4th passing defense, 1st rushing defense

The Orange Bowl may feature two Top 10 teams but I’m just not finding the matchup all that intriguing. I was down on Miami for most of the season before the team imploded against an unranked Pitt team and laid an egg against Clemson in the ACC Championship game. At least Wisconsin was competitive in their conference championship and proved that they belonged in the playoff conversation despite a weak schedule.

Hurricanes QB Malik Rosier was overrated, in my opinion, during Miami’s unbeaten run to start the season. He ranks 89th in adjusted completion percentage according to Pro Football Focus; that metric is meant to give a better picture of a quarterback’s accuracy by not counting spikes/throwaways against them and by giving them credit for drops. Per their stats, the Miami receivers dropped 22 passes, which is about average, but even after factoring those back in he is still at the bottom of the list (there are only twelve worse qualifying QBs). Rosier did rush for 427 yards and 5 TDs which helps make up for his negative plays but it’s not enough in big games. Case in point: Rosier was pulled late in the Pitt game to give redshirt sophomore backup Evan Shirreffs a shot. Shirreffs had five career passing attempts at that point so in that moment the coaches though he gave them a better shot than Rosier (predictably, Shirreffs did nothing and was replaced by Rosier). Miami lost RB Mark Walton early in the season but sophomore Travis Homer has emerged in his stead. Homer has over 1,100 total yards and scored 8 TDs. He had a big game against #3 Notre Dame (18 rushes for 146 yards) but had just 55 combined rushing and receiving yards in the late losses to Pitt and Clemson. If Miami is to stand a chance against Wisconsin’s great defense it will fall on Walton. Senior DE Chad Thomas had 30 total pressures per PFF and finished the year with 3.5 sacks. Safety Jaquon Johnson improved his stats in 2017 to end with 85 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries and 4 INTs. Miami’s defense did get better in 2017 but gone are the days when the NFL Draft was littered with Hurricane defenders; Thomas and Johnson could be mid-round picks but I doubt anybody goes higher than that.

Speaking of defense, Wisconsin’s is a juggernaut. They are 4th in scoring, 4th against the pass and 1st against the run. They don’t have a weakness and it’s unfortunate we did not get to see them play a stronger schedule. We may never know if this was a historic unit or just a product of a soft schedule. Their leader, LB TJ Edwards, is good in both run support (27th ranked in run stop percentage per PFF) and in coverage (4 INTs). According to DraftTek.com, he’s the 11th ranked prospect in the conference and according to WalterFootball.com he’s looking at a 3rd-5th round grade. Edwards may not be a Watt brother but he’s keeping up the tradition of productive Wisconsin linebackers with initials instead of first names! The Badgers offense is all about freshman RB Jonathan Taylor. Taylor had 1,847 rushing yards and 13 TDs this season and he finished 6th in Heisman voting. Those rushing yards ranked him first in the conference and third in the FBS. Not bad for a three star recruit. Taylor still has two more seasons before he’s draft eligible so we have to wait and see what he develops into but he’ll probably be on my Heisman watch list for next season. Aside from offensive tackle Beau Benzschawel, the best offensive prospect is TE Troy Fumagalli. Fumagalli has a long injury history that I discussed in my Big Ten preview, but I still like his chances in the NFL. He’s more of a traditional TE than the “move TE” that is en vogue right now so that may lower how high he is drafted. Regardless of where he is drafted, he will be on the field from day one because of his above average blocking ability. Fumagalli led the team with 43 receptions, 516 yards and 4 TDs. He has already declared for the NFL Draft but Fumagalli has confirmed that he will play in the bowl. Fumagalli may not be a fantasy factor in his rookie season but he’ll still be worth a third round pick.

I don’t have a doubt in my mind that Wisconsin will win this one. Prediction: Wisconsin

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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