Blog Archives

Week 5 Street FA Report

Reply

By Nick Andrews

Updated: October 4th 2022

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

 

Add of the Week

Latavius Murray, RB, DEN (8%)

Week 4: 11 Car/57 yards, 1 TD, 1 Rec/8 yards

It is not very often that a player becomes a must add, mid-season, after switching teams. However, with the Broncos quickly jumping to sign Latavius Murray hours after the announcement of Javonte Williams’ injury it should be expected that he will play right away and could be the long awaited “season winner” from the free agent pool. The new coaching staff favored journeyman Mike Boone over Melvin Gordon in the second half last week’s game due to Gordon’s fumbling issues so it should be reasonable to expect that Murray, after a few weeks could be the primary ball carrier once he is comfortable with the verbiage.

Suggested Bid:$7,000,000-$10,000,000 or 70-90% of remaining cap

RB Add

Caleb Huntley, RB, ATL (<1%)

Week 4: 10 Car/56 yards, 1 TD

The Falcons have a brutal upcoming week for expected running game production which is why I will likely be more bearish on expectations than some will be when picking up Caleb Huntley. We will see how the backfield splits work out when more passing is required as the Falcons only needed to attempt 19 passes against a beaten down Browns’ defensive line in week 4. Huntley shared equal carries with Tyler Allgeier (10) after Cordarrelle Patterson left with an injury but half the snap shares (24:12). 

Suggested Bid:$1,000,000

WR Add

Olamide Zaccheaus, WR, ATL (Owned 10%)

Week 4: 2 Rec/55 yards

As mentioned with Huntley, the Falcons did not have to pass much last week but throughout the first month of the season Olamide Zaccheaus has been operating solely as the WR2 in Atlanta. He is mostly a boom-or-bust big play option averaging only 2+ targets per game but he has caught 100 percent of his targets and is averaging 17.4 yards/reception. Some weeks we have to start a Hail Mary WR5 and hope they do not zero out. Zaccheaus will keep the doughnut off the scoresheet.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

TE Add

Mo Alie-Cox, TE, IND (Owned 22%)

Week 4: 6 Rec/85 yards, 2 TDs

I assume there must have been a mass exodus of Mo Alie-Cox ownership in the previous weeks as I did not expect him to qualify for this article at any point this season. At a position that feels like it is all or nothing, Alie-Cox has played over the majority of snaps for the Colts all four (4) weeks but this was his first week of real production. Is it safe to start him each week, probably not unless your current tight end options are somehow even worse, but he should be held on the backend of rosters with an ownership closer to 50:50 and used in spot starts. 

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (<25%)

Trent Sherfield, WR, MIA (Owned 1%)

Week 4: 4 Rec/55 yards

A lot is up in the air about Tua Tagovailoa’s health and his availability to play after already being ruled out for week 5. The offense sputtered out on Thursday Night once he left but we will have to see how much of that was due to the change in rhythm with Teddy Bridgewater. In either case, Trent Sherfield appears to be taking on much of the WR3 role through the first four (4) weeks and would be in line for a production upgrade in the case of either Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle missing time. As it stands he is a fringe roster player in deeper leagues.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Week 12 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 11 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 9 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 8 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 7 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 6 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 5 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 4 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 2 Street FA Report

Reply

By Nick Andrews

Updated: September 13th 2022

Welcome back to year five (!) of the street FA report. Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

 

Add of the Week

Jeff Wilson, RB, SF (Owned 60%)

Week 1: 9 Car/22 yards, 2 Rec/8 yards

As with every week 1 there is always one big ticket free agent, usually at running back, that everyone will put in most of their remaining cap space to acquire. This usually occurs because of a big injury to a starter, a mutled backfield becoming more transparent after pre-season or a player having a big breakout week 1. Jeff Wilson is the beneficiary of what is expected to be at least a two (2) month absence from Elijah Mitchell in San Francisco. The 49ers’ backfield is well known as one that fantasy managers want to have a piece of and with Mitchell out of commission, Trey Sermon recently released, and rookie Tyrion Davis-Price inactive for week 1 this leaves Wilson as the de facto number one option in San Francisco. Like Cordarrelle Patterson last year, Wilson could become a staple for many team’s lineups if his expected role continues for half of the remaining season.

Suggested Bid: $7-10,000,000

 

RB Adds

Dontrell Hilliard, RB, TEN (Owned 34%)

Week 1: 2 Car/8 yards, 3 Rec/61 yards, 2 TD

Realistically will I be surprised when Hilliard plays less than 10 snaps and sees two (2) touches in week 2? No. But there is a chance that Mike Vrabel is looking to offload some of Derrick Henry’s usage so that they can maintain his health throughout a 17-game season. If nothing else Hilliard should see more passing down snaps which increases his value in PPR leagues where a handful of checkdown passes could lead to a steady 3-5 targets per week. Scoring two (2) touchdowns like in week 1 is definitely above the ceiling for what is to be expected from Hilliard, but if Henry was to be sidelined at any point this season, Hilliard would be a great stash to have.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

Jerick McKinnon, RB, KC (Owned 37.5%)

Week 1: 4 Car/22 yards, 3 Rec/27 yards

There was a lot of discussion this pre-season about the emergence of Isiah Pacheco and his threat to Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Kansas City. While CEH scored his two (2) touchdowns and Pacheco came in and scored his own in cleanup duties, Jerick McKinnon actually co-led with CEH for total offensive snap shares at 39 percent. Ownership of all three (3) running backs are a must at this point until more is known about how these usages will translate into games where KC is not running away from the start. If you are missing out on the other two (2) runners, or want to take a 50/50 handcuff to your other shares, add McKinnon before week 2 and see where their game plan goes.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

WR Add

Kyle Philips, WR, TEN (Owned 36%)

Week 1: 6 Rec/66 yards

There was a lot of buzz about rookie wide receivers heading into the 2022 season but after week 1 the biggest rookie surprise performance is Kyle Philips. A fifth-round selection, Philips has shot up the depth charts to be the Titans primary slot receiver and in week 1 actually saw more snaps (31) than first-round selection Treylon Burks (24). He has had nine (9) targets to lead the Titans. All this to say that Philips was considered a Hunter Renfrew clone that could be a long term stash for 2023 and beyond. It appears that his development has accelerated even past anyone’s best estimates and he should be rostered as a suitable PPR flex option going forward.

Suggested Bid: $1,500,000

TE Add

Tyler Conklin, TE, NYJ (Owned 23%)

Week 1: 4 Rec/14 yards, 1 TD

Tight end usage is usually the key to finding sustained success at the position and while some may be quick to jump on OJ Howard with his two (2) touchdowns in week 1, he only played on 12 snaps behind both Brevin Jordan (42) and Pharoh Brown (46). Instead, look to someone like Tyler Conklin who played on 92 percent of the Jets’ offensive snaps and saw seven (7) targets. Honorable mention goes to Taysom Hill who has now been designated as a tight end in default RSO leagues meaning that if you want to get tricky with the position he could offer boom/bust weeks that he is featured in multiple positions on the field.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

 

Sleeper Add (<25%)

Olamide Zaccheaus, WR, ATL (Owned 10%)

Week 1: 4 Rec/49 yards

Rightfully so, the only pieces of the Atlanta Falcons offense that people wanted to roster in 2022 was Kyle Pitts and Drake London. There was not a lot of confidence that much else would be able to have consistent fantasy production to afford holding a bench spot for. While he may not be a viable starter for many leagues there is likely no option with under 25 percent ownership that has a better expected target opportunity than Olamide Zaccheaus. He will hover around the WR5/6 range for most weeks but in deeper leagues he is worth a stash to use during the heavy bye weeks.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Week 12 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 11 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 9 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 8 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 7 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 6 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 5 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 4 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 5 Street FA Report

Reply

By Nick Andrews

Updated: October 6th 2020

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Tim Patrick, WR – DEN (Owned 7%)

Week 4: 6 Rec/113 yards, 1 TD

I felt bad not recommending Tim Patrick as a featured WR in last week’s article and then he had a career game on Thursday night. I will make it up to my loyal readers by doubling down and saying he is this week’s must add Reality Sports Online player. The Broncos lost another receiver (Noah Fant) to make an already thin receiving core even thinner. Jerry Jeudy stole the spotlight with his touchdown catch but Patrick out-snapped, out-targeted and out-caught Jeudy. Their next matchup against the Patriots should give us an indication of how the league views Patrick’s skills. Bill Belichick usually locks down Stephon Gilmore to whoever he thinks the opposing team’s number one option is. If it is Jeudy then Patrick will likely see more targets. For the rest of the season, Patrick will have a WR4 based on volume, with the upside he showed on Thursday to be WR2 (or even WR1) in good matchups.

Suggested Bid: $4,000,000

RB Adds

D’Ernest Johnson, RB – CLE (Owned 1%)

Week 4: 13 Car/95 yards

It was another tough week for running backs as Nick Chubb went down with a knee injury that is likely to sideline him for most of the remaining fantasy regular season. Fortunately for the Browns, they already have their insurance policy in the form of Kareem Hunt who stepped in and assumed the primary duties. Because the Browns like to run the ball though, D’Ernest Johnson also received a heavy workload once Chubb exited with 13 carries and almost 100 yards in the second half. He will likely be a fantasy add in every league from his week 4 performance but we should all temper expectations. The Browns play the Colts who are first against the run and have only allowed one (1) top 24RB finish thus far. Their next matchup after that is Pittsburgh who has only allowed a single rusher over 50 yards through their first three games. Needless to say, it will be difficult for Hunt to have a strong fantasy showing let alone those playing behind him. Ideally, you would want Johnson in two weeks when the matchups become much more favorable (Cincinnati, Oakland, and Houston). If you have space, both cap and roster, to acquire Johnson now he may be useful down the road. Otherwise, you can wait to see if someone drops him after two dud performances for much cheaper.

Suggested Bid: $2,500,000

Justin Jackson, RB – LAC (Owned 54%)

Week 4: 6 Car/9 yards, 2 Rec/12 yards

Along with Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler also went down with what is being described as a serious injury that will keep him out for multiple weeks. Like in Cleveland, the Chargers already have a good backup in rookie Joshua Kelley but his backup, Justin Jackson, is now in play for those desperate at the running back position. Jackson has shown in past seasons when he and Austin Ekeler split time in replace of Melvin Gordon that he can carry a good portion of the workload and not have it be a significant downgrade. He also averaged almost seven (7) yards per carry with what action he saw last season so he can make the most of the opportunity given to him. After Monday night against the Saints, the Chargers play the Jets, Dolphins, Jaguars and Raiders who all have struggled on defense this season. Jackson could be a sleeper flex in any of those matchups until we learn more about Ekeler’s injury.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

WR Add

Dontrelle Inman, WR – WAS (Owned 7%)

Week 4: 4 Rec/29 yards

For the first quarter of the season, Dontrelle Inman has been the consistent WR2 for Washington seeing the second-most targets (21) and is tied for second in reception (11). He also had a two-touchdown performance in week 3 which one would think would raise his ownership across the platform. That was not the case as he remains under 10 percent. The offense has not looked great thus far and second-year receiver Terry McLaurin remains the alpha with double the targets that Inman has. However, in the next month and a half Washington plays a group of pass defenses that are, shall we say, not good. McLaurin will likely be locked up with Jalen Ramsey this coming week against the Rams and then it is the Giants, Cowboys, Giants again, Lions, Bengals, and the Cowboys a second time. There will be plenty of opportunities for Inman to be a WR3/4.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

TE Add

Richard Rodgers, TE – PHI (Owned 1%)

Week 4: 3 Rec/35 yards

The Eagles lost tight end Dallas Goedert last week but that did not stop them from running “12” personnel the fifth most last week. For the season they lineup the most 2+ tight end formations of any team in the league (54 percent) which should present opportunities for Richard Rodgers to at least have some TE2 appeal. Though Zach Ertz was on the field the whole game, he and Rodgers had similar production as well. Until some of the receivers come back healthy Rodgers should be on the field and available for Carson Wentz to get the ball out to.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (<25%)

Olamide Zaccheaus, WR – ATL (Owned 5%)

Week 4: 8 Rec/86 yards

Raise your hand if you were only told after halftime of Monday night that Julio Jones was going to be used in special yardage situations? Me too. With Julio out, Calvin Ridley retiring just before the game (allegedly) and Russell Gage working through his own injury, Olamide Zaccheaus had his best career game with eight (8) catches and 86 yards. Who knows if this was a product of the situation or if he will continue to be used in such a way with the others sidelined. Either way, we know the Falcons defense likely will not give this team too many chances to salt away games so it will be on Matt Ryan and the passing game to continue to score. Zaccheaus is worth a flier at this point to see how long Julio’s injury keeps him out.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Week 12 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 11 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 9 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 8 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 7 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 6 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 5 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 4 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

The Watch List: Bowl Game Previews, Part III

Reply

By Bob Cowper

Updated: December 21st 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  During the college bowl season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year.  Note: times listed are Eastern.

Wednesday, Dec. 27

Independence Bowl, Florida State (6-6) vs. Southern Miss (8-4), 1:30 p.m. (ESPN)

  • Florida State: 78th scoring offense, 92nd passing offense, 84th rushing offense; 34th scoring defense, 35th passing defense, 33rd rushing defense
  • Southern Miss: 48th scoring offense, 47th passing offense, 40th rushing offense; 40th scoring defense, 24th passing defense, 28th rushing defense

“Buzz, your girlfriend, woof.”  That’s how I’m feeling about this one.  Florida State just barely managed bowl eligibility after a late season makeup game against UL-Monroe.  They lost pro prospect QB Deondre Francois in the season opener and struggled with freshman James Blackman under center since.  They also lost head coach Jimbo Fisher who, mistakenly in my opinion, abandoned Tallahassee for College Station.  FSU will be playing the Independence Bowl without another potential pro: safety Derwin James.  James has decided to skip the bowl in order to preserve his NFL Draft stock; expect James to be in consideration for a Top 10 pick in April although he was surpassed by Alabama’s Minkah Fitzpatrick as the top defensive back prospect.  If you’re looking for a reason to tune in to watch the Seminoles, check out freshman RB Cam Akers, WR Auden Tate and CB Tavarus McFadden.  McFadden will likely come out but his stock has definitely been dented by the team’s subpar season.  McFadden himself disappointed too going from 8 INTs in 2016 to zero in 2017.  He’s not great in run support (just 27 tackles this season) so he needs to remind scouts that he has ball skills.  Akers has been streaky this season but I would attribute that more to poor quarterback play than anything else.  He finished the season with a strong game against UL-Monroe (117 yards, 2 TDs) to give him a solid 931-7 line for the year; interestingly, he has not had a reception in the last three games.  Tate has just 60 receptions, 873 yards and 13 TDs in his career (35-464-7 this season) but is still an NFL Draft prospect because of his size (6’5″ and 225lbs) and ability to make contested catches.

Southern Mississippi is led by JUCO transfer QB Kwadra Griggs.  He has 15 TDs to just 2 INTs plus 2 rushing TDs.  Griggs started the year sharing the starting role and suffered a hand injury but since a dismal game against Tennessee he has played well (722 yards, 7 TDs, 0 INT).  I’m a big fan of South Miss RB Ito Smith.  He’s undersized at 5’9″ 195lbs but he’s durable (50 career games).  He’s a true three down back because he is a good receiver (36 for 370 and 2 scores this season) and a good pass blocker (94.6% pass blocking efficiency per Pro Football Focus).  Back in Week 8, I predicted that Smith might be the 2018 version of Kareem Hunt and Tarik Cohen for fantasy owners: an underappreciated prospect whose pass catching skill ensures he gets on the field early in his career.

Despite my love of Smith, FSU just has the better athletes.  Prediction: Florida State

New Era Pinstripe Bowl, Iowa (7-5) vs. Boston College (7-5), 5:15 p.m. (ESPN)

  • Iowa: 68th scoring offense, 89th passing offense, 94th rushing offense; 20th scoring defense, 50th passing defense, 38th rushing defense
  • Boston College: 82nd scoring offense, 115th passing offense, 24th rushing offense; 36th scoring defense, 31st passing defense, 102nd rushing defense

No team influenced the College Football Playoff picture more than Iowa did with their blowout of #5 Ohio State.  If it weren’t for that loss, the Buckeyes could be playing for a national championship.  The Hawkeyes are led by three guys who will be playing on Sundays next year: CB Joshua Jackson, LB Josey Jewell and RB Akrum Wadley.  Jackson offers solid run support (47 tackles), has good instincts when the ball is in the air (7 INTs, 18 passes defended) and is incredibly clutch.  In the two biggest games Iowa played this season, against Ohio State and Wisconsin, Jackson combined for 6 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 1 pass defended, 5 INTs and 2 return touchdowns.  One of those interceptions against Ohio State was an OBJ-esque one-hander; another was a hard fought battle with the receiver where he had the strength to rip the ball from the receiver’s hands.  Those two games established him as a Top 10 CB heading into the 2018 draft.  Josey Jewell enjoyed an equally impressive season that buoyed his draft stock.  Jewell has 120+ tackles in three straight seasons and is the conference’s #2 career tackler since 2005 (when www.sports-reference.com/cfb started tracking the record).  Jewell also set career highs for tackles for loss, sacks and passes defended on his way to being named the 2017 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.  Jewell trusts his instincts and play recognition which allows him to be the first to the hole or the ball carrier on most plays.  RB Akrum Wadley leads the offense.  He went over 1,000 yards again this season (1,021) but his yards per carry did decrease from 6.4 to 4.4.  He’s also a factor in the passing game with 62 receptions, 644 yards and 6 TDs over the last two years.  In my 2018 fantasy draft positional rankings I had Wadley at RB9 and would expect him to stay in the RB8-12 range when I update in the offseason.

Boston College’s best weapon is freshman RB AJ Dillon, other than that the cupboard is pretty bare on offense.  Starting QB Anthony Brown is out for the rest of the season (and wasn’t particularly effective anyway).  Career backup QB Darius Wade had his best game of his career in the season finale against Syracuse: 16-20, 248 yards and 1 TD.  Because of Brown’s ineffectiveness, the Eagles don’t have a WR of note (the leading receiver was Kobay White with 32-396-4).  Dillon has gained 1,432 yards (#2 in the ACC) on 268 attempts (#1 in the ACC).  Oddly, he doesn’t have a single reception; he had the most carries of any FBS back without a single catch.  Dillon has a rare combination of size (6’0″ and 240lbs) and speed (4.55 range coming out of high school) that compares to Leonard Fournette’s combine measureables.  Dillon has a way to go before we’re considering him for the NFL Draft but I’m optimistic.  Unfortunately, DE Harold Landry likely will not play in this one.  Landry will be a first round pick in the Spring but his stock has decreased due injury and decreased production.

Despite them having the same record, I don’t have a doubt about this one: Iowa is the better team.  Prediction: Iowa

Foster Farms Bowl, Purdue (6-6) vs. Arizona (7-5), 8 p.m. (FOX)

  • Purdue: 97th scoring offense, 55th passing offense, 83rd rushing offense; 18th scoring defense, 85th passing defense, 30th rushing defense
  • Arizona: 6th scoring offense, 110th passing offense, 3rd rushing offense; 110th scoring defense, 122nd passing defense, 89th rushing defense

In late October, it would have been tough to predict these two teams matching up in the Foster Farms Bowl.  Arizona was 4-1 in the conference (6-2 overall) and looking like a serious contender for the division.  Purdue meanwhile was 3-5 and coming off their third straight loss.  The fortunes for both teams changed though from that point forward.  Arizona lost three of their last four while Purdue won three of four.  So, here we are.

Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm was one of the many coaches in the running for Tennessee’s opening.  Brohm stayed put and used the courting as a bargaining chip to get a better contract.  Brohm has used a two-quarterback rotation throughout the season featuring David Blough (1,103 yards, 65% completion percentage, 9 TDs, 4 INTs) and Elijah Sindelar (1,730 yards, 55.6% completion percentage, 14 TDs, 6 INTs).  Blough suffered a serious knee injury against Illinois on November 4 and will not factor in here.  In the three games without Blough, Sindelar has thrown the ball a ton: 126 attempts.  In those three games he has 7 TDs and just 1 INT.  Sindelar’s best game came against #25 Iowa when he went 22-37 for 229 yards and 3 TDs.  Hindsight is always 20/20 but maybe if Brohm stuck with Sindelar all season they could have been better than 6-6.  The Boilermakers have a quartet of backs with 250+ yards each, the leader of which is junior Markell Jones (480 yards, 1 TD, 11 receptions).  On defense, Purdue is led by LB Markus Bailey.  Bailey is a redshirt sophomore and likely doesn’t have enough hype to come out in 2018 but if he continues to improve we’ll see him drafted in 2019 or 2020.  This season Bailey has an impressive stat line of: 78 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, 1 INT, 2 passes defended, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery.

Arizona has two players that I wanted to highlight: QB Khalil Tate and CB Lorenzo Burns.  Burns is a redshirt freshman so he’s not draft eligible but his stats caught my eye.  He has 75 total tackles which is a lot for a corner.  He also has 5 INTs which led the PAC-12.  Tate took over the starting role in October and led the team to four straight victories.  He’s not the best passer but he’s efficient enough to keep the offense on the field until he can make a big play with his legs.  Tate threw for more than 200 yards just once this season and averages about 150 yards per game.  Amazingly, he actually has more yards rushing (1,353) than passing (1,289) on the year.  He has 9 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs.  Tate’s biggest game of the year came against Colorado when he racked up 327 yards rushing and 4 TDs.  Something that is worth noting: Tate only has 60 total rushing yards over the last two regular season games.  I did not watch him in either contest so I cannot say whether it was due to scheme or maybe he has a minor injury.

This game is a toss-up for me so I’ll take the team featuring the best player on the field and that will be Khalil Tate.  Prediction: Arizona

Texas Bowl, Texas (6-6) vs. Missouri (7-5), 9 p.m. (ESPN)

  • Texas: 61st scoring offense, 36th passing offense, 95th rushing offense; 31st scoring defense, 108th passing defense, 6th rushing defense
  • Missouri: 10th scoring offense, 14th passing offense, 35th rushing offense; 96th scoring defense, 110th passing defense, 61st rushing defense

The Texas Bowl features two former conference foes in Texas and Missouri.  The teams last faced off in Big 12 play in 2011 before Mizzou left for the SEC; Texas leads the all-time series at 15-4 (not that it matters, these players were all in middle school, but it’s just interesting to see teams matching up with so many prior meetings in a bowl game).  Despite the teams having a combined 13-11 record, I found quite a few interesting storylines to research.

Texas started the season with sophomore QB Shane Buechele as the starter but they have gone back and forth between him and freshman Sam Ehlinger due to injury.  Neither guy has been great: they combine for 3,153 yards, 16 TDs and 11 INTs.  Based on the raw passing stats, Beuchele is the better play in the bowl game but Ehlinger offers a dimension as a rusher (364 yards, 2 TDs).  Since the start of bowl practices, both quarterbacks have reportedly been getting first team work.  My money would be on Ehlinger since he was the primary passer in the team’s last two games (66 attempts to Buechele’s nine).  WR Colin Johnson will be the main target no matter who is under center.  Johnson is huge (6’6″ 220lb) but just a sophomore so thankfully he’ll have another season to improve before hearing the siren song of the NFL Draft.  Johnson has 79 receptions, 1,050 yards and 5 TDs so far in his career – not amazing but encouraging given the struggles of the Texas offense the last two seasons.  The Longhorn running game is a mess.  Ehlinger is actually the team’s leading rusher by both attempts and yards, although he’s not very efficient as he averages just 3.5 yards per attempt.  Chris Warren, a big and bruising back who was slowed by injuries early in his career but looked promising, changed positions mid-season and is now transferring.  Freshman RB Daniel Young finished the season as the lead back with 58 rushes for 238 yards and 2 TDs over the last four games.  Leading the defense is LB Malik Jefferson who is one of the nation’s leading prospects at ILB.  Jefferson has 110 tackles this season.  Jefferson flashed in my eyes when playing against Sam Darnold and USC early in the season (he had 11 tackles and 2 tackles for loss).  He had six double-digit tackle games on the season and added four sacks.  Jefferson measures in at 6’3″ and 240lbs with a projected speed of 4.72 per NFLDraftScout.com.  Similar size and speed comps include a number of key IDP players: Sean Lee, Kiko Alonso, Blake Martinez and Nick Vigil.  Phil Steele’s preview magazine listed him as the #1 ILB for 2018 while NFLDraftScout.com has him listed as their #2 ILB in Jefferson’s 2019 class.  Chances are that he comes out and that he is a Top 15 pick.

Missouri’s season has been one of streaks.  They started the season with a loss over FCS also-ran Missouri State then lost five straight then won six straight.  Stories of the team’s turnaround all point to head coach Barry Odom as the rock that keep the team on track despite the struggles.  I don’t know Odom from Adam but it seems that the players love and respect him so that’s what matters.  Throughout Missouri’s winning streak, I continually wanted to spotlight QB Drew Lock but I never got the chance.  Lock is a three year starter who has improved on his stats year over year.  In 2017 he finished the regular season with 3,695 yards, 43 TDs and 12 INTs.  His completion percentage could be better (just 58.2%) but there is enough potential there to consider him as a draft prospect.  Lock is listed at 6’4″ and 225lb and will run in the 4.80-4.90 range at the combine should he declare.  Unfortunately, there aren’t many good comps in that size range, the best likely being AJ McCarron.  McCarron did not produce like Lock has though.  Lock led the SEC this year in attempts, yards and passing touchdowns (he also led the FBS in passing touchdowns).  I’ll do more research and film study on Lock in the offseason if he declares, for now he’s definitely a player to watch.  Lock’s top target is WR J’Mon Moore.  In three years with Lock throwing him the ball, Moore has totaled 151 receptions, 2,389 yards and 21 TDs.  His production in 2016 and 2017 was nearly identical, essentially 60 receptions and 1,000 yards.  Moore won’t be a draftable WR fantasy rookie but could get late round NFL Draft consideration because of his height (6’3″).

I think Texas’ defense will outperform their 108th ranking and that they’ll slow Lock enough to keep the game close just not close enough.  Prediction: Missouri

Thursday, Dec. 28

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman, Virginia (6-6) vs. Navy (6-6), 1:30 p.m. (ESPN)

  • Virginia: 101st scoring offense, 42nd passing offense, 126th rushing offense; 67th scoring defense, 14th passing defense, 80th rushing defense
  • Navy: 49th scoring offense, 128th passing offense, 2nd rushing offense; 84th scoring defense, 86th passing defense, 58th rushing defense

Since I was using Sports-Reference.com’s “Rivalry Finder” tool to look up the Texas/Missouri matchup I figured I might as well check out Virginia/Navy as well since that felt like a natural rivalry given the geography and military connections (it’s no coincidence the Military Bowl picked either team when given the chance).  Turns out that the teams have met 33 times in their history but not since 1994.  For what it’s worth, Navy leads the “rivalry” 23-10.

Navy is coming off a tough loss to Army on December 15 so there could be a bit of a “hangover” in this one.  Even aside from the Army loss in the snow, the Midshipmen have been cold as of late, winning just one of the last seven.  As most casual college football fans know, Navy, like the other service academies, runs a rush heavy triple-option offense.  So, it’s no surprise to see Navy with two 1,000+ yard rushers (and another at 500+).  What might be surprising is just how often the quarterback keeps the ball, eschewing his two other options.  Junior QB Zach Abey leads the team with 1,325 yards rushing and 14 TDs (plus 805 yards and 7 TDs passing).  Abey missed time during the season with both a concussion and a shoulder injury.  In his stead, sophomore QB/WR Malcolm Perry emerged as the primary playmaker.  If you watched the Army vs Navy game, you’ll no doubt remember Perry.  Perry is not a threat to pass (just two attempts) but he is electric with the ball in his hands, so much so that when Abey was healthy Navy got Perry involved as a a receiver (13-303-2) and as a kick returner (24.5 yards per return).  Even if Abey is fully healthy, expect to see more of Perry.

Bronco Mendenhall’s Cavaliers improved significantly after a 2-10 campaign last season.  It’s the first time UVA has been bowl eligible since 2011 and just the second time in a decade.  Leading the offense is senior QB Kurt Benkert.  Honestly, I did not know Benkert’s name to start the season but he had enough success this year (3,062 yards and 25 TDs) that he’s been getting some buzz.  I have not watched Benkert’s film so the bowl will be a good introduction against Navy’s mediocre pass defense.  Benkert’s favorite target is the versatile Olamide Zaccheaus.  Zaccheaus has 80 receptions for 833 yards and 5 TDs while adding 182 rushing yards and a rushing score.  Earlier in his career he also returned kicks and even threw a touchdown pass in 2015.  He’s the type of player that offensive coordinators love scheming for.  On defense, UVA features two mid-round NFL Draft prospects in LB Micah Kiser (132 tackles, 5 sacks this season) and S Quin Blanding (120 tackles, 4 INTs this season).  Both players are mutli-year starters who have nearly 900 career tackles between them.  Kiser and Blanding will be key against the Navy rushing attack.  In their November 11 matchup, Virginia held the Georgia Tech triple-option offense to just 220 yards.  Just 220 yards you ask?  It may sound like a lot but it’s the fourth lowest total of the season for Tech, so Virginia’s defense played well considering.  In that game, Kiser had 18 tackles while Blanding had just three but added an interception.

This one may be a home game for Navy but I believe UVA has the better athletes all over the field.  Prediction: Virginia

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl, #16 Michigan State (9-3) vs. #18 Washington State (9-3), 9 p.m. (FS1)

  • Michigan State: 106th scoring offense, 77th passing offense, 67th rushing offense; 23rd scoring defense, 30th passing defense, 5th rushing defense
  • Washington State: 42nd scoring offense, 2nd passing offense, 129th rushing offense; 47th scoring defense, 9th passing defense, 41st rushing defense

It’s not quite the “Grandaddy of them all” as Keith Jackson would say, but this Big Ten vs PAC-12 matchup is a good one.  I’m a Michigan and Rutgers fan, a Big Ten apologist and huge Rose Bowl fan.  My favorite pieces of memorabilia are a program and press pass from the 1998 Rose Bowl when Michigan won a share of the national championship; I found the pieces in a used bookstore in Ann Arbor, bought them immediately and had them framed.  So, you can see I’m a sucker for a Big Ten vs PAC-12 matchup.  I’ll call this one Rose Bowl Lite.

Michigan State’s mediocre offense is led by QB Brian Lewerke and RB LJ Scott.  Lewerke is a redshirt sophomore who is starting for the first time this season.  He has 2,580 yards, 17 TDs and 6 INTs plus 489 yards rushing and 5 rushing TDs.  Lewerke finished mid-pack in the conference in most passing statistics so he’s solid but he’s not on the level of recent Spartan QBs like Conor Cook and Kirk Cousins.  Scott started the year with some hype but he mostly disappointed.  In my early 2018 rookie mock draft, I had Scott as my 2.05; I had him ahead of other backs like Sony Michel and Ronald Jones who are definitely ahead of him now.  A running back of his size should see more TDs because of his utility near the goal line.  In 2016 Scott had just 6 TDs and he duplicated that output in 2017.  That’s just not good enough.  Scott did injure an ankle during the season but he was actually dressed and active for the Michigan game that he supposedly missed due to the injury.  I didn’t believe this when I first read it while doing my research but Scott was arrested in October for his seventh charge for driving without a valid license.  That is staggering.  I don’t know Scott and don’t want to cast aspersions but how can you be so irresponsible?  Either get your driver’s license right or stop driving.  If Scott is convicted, which I doubt would happen but who knows, he could face jail time.  Oh, I forgot to mention that despite being the primary ball carrier in each of his three years, Scott has failed to break 1,000 yards in a season.  Between the poor production, a small injury concern and an alarming pattern of behavior, I am out on Scott if he does declare early.  I would rather miss on him than draft him in my league and deal with dead cap if I have to cut him.  On defense, Sparty’s heart and soul is sophomore LB Joe Bachie.  He has 94 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, 3 INTs, 2 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery on the season.

Cougar QB Luke Falk was my QB4 in early November when I did my early positional rankings for 2018 rookies.  I will probably bump Falk down a bit (or more accurately, bump Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield up a bit) but that doesn’t mean I am down on him.  Depending on his landing spot after the NFL Draft, I would consider drafting Falk late in my superflex leagues as a stash.  Falk is a three year starter at Washington State and has incredible career stats: 1,403 completions, 14,481 passing yards, 119 passing TDs, 39 INTs and a 68.3% completion percentage.  Falk’s stats did decrease a bit this year so that concerns me slightly but not enough to push him off my board.  Falk’s best attributes are his experience, size and accuracy – those traits will definitely get him drafted to be a backup behind an aging vet.  Washington State doesn’t bother running the ball too much (second worst rushing offense in the FBS at 71.1 yards per game) but that does not mean that RBs Jamal Morrow and James Williams are worthless.  Both backs excel in the passing game with 898 combined receiving yards.  The team’s leading receiver is junior Tavares Martin (70-831-9) but Falk spreads the love around because five guys have 50+ receptions.  One other prospect to keep an eye on, not that you could miss him, is G Cody O’Connell.  O’Connell’s nickname is “The Continent” and he deserves the title because he is listed at 6’9″ and 354lbs.  It’s odd to see such a big guard and that could be telling that he’s not playing tackle.  Per WalterFootball.com, one of my favorite draft resources, team sources think O’Connell will go undrafted.  Reading that tempered my excitement but still how often do we get to see a 6’9″ player?

Maybe I’m blinded by my Big Ten fandom but I’m going with Sparty here.  Michigan State has the better defense and is more likely to stop Washington State’s offense than vice versa.  Prediction: Michigan State

 

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch.  If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen.  I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability.  If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents.  Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
  • Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

The Watch List 2021: Early WR Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Early RB Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Championship Game Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Early TE Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 13 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Early QB Tiers

Throughout the rest of the season I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 11 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 10 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]